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Scaling photosynthetic function and CO2 dynamics from leaf to canopy level for maize – dataset combining diurnal and seasonal measurements of vegetation fluorescence, reflectance and vegetation indices with canopy gross ecosystem productivity

Recent advances in leaf fluorescence measurements and canopy proximal remote sensing currently enable the non-destructive collection of rich diurnal and seasonal time series, which are required for monitoring vegetation function at the temporal and spatial scales relevant to the natural dynamics of photosynthesis. Remote sensing assessments of vegetation function have traditionally used actively excited foliar chlorophyll fluorescence measurements, canopy optical reflectance data and vegetation indices (VIs), and only recently passive solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) measurements. In general, reflectance data are more sensitive to the seasonal variations in canopy chlorophyll content and foliar biomass, while fluorescence observations more closely relate to the dynamic changes in plant photosynthetic function. With this dataset we link leaf level actively excited chlorophyll fluorescence, canopy proximal reflectance and SIF, with eddy covariance measurements of gross ecosystem productivity (GEP). The dataset was collected during the 2017 growing season on maize, using three automated systems (i.e., Monitoring Pulse-Amplitude-Modulation fluorimeter, Moni-PAM; Fluorescence Box, FloX; and from eddy covariance tower). The data were quality checked, filtered and collated to a common 30 minutes timestep. We derived vegetation indices related to canopy functioning (e.g., Photochemical Reflectance Index, PRI; Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI; Chlorophyll Red-edge, Clre) to investigate how SIF and VIs can be coupled for monitoring vegetation photosynthesis. The raw datasets and the filtered and collated data are provided to enable new processing and analyses.

Petya Campbell↗

CropManage Application for Vineyard Irrigation Decision-Support

CropManage is a free web-application developed by U.C. Cooperative Extension to support evapotranspiration based irrigation scheduling and nutrient management for major specialty crops. Prescribed phenology curves are used to develop daily estimates of canopy cover within a given field, based on days since planting (annual crops) or budbreak (trees, vines). These curves are modulated by a MaxCan parameter representing seasonal maximum canopy cover. Crop development observations can be used to adjust for such factors as weather anomalies or non-standard agronomic practice, as needed. Canopy cover is converted to crop coefficient and combined with reference evapotranspiration to derive daily water consumption. Guidance on crop water requirement is then conveyed to users in terms of system runtime issued on-demand for a given date, largely based on total evapotranspiration since last irrigation event. In this study, CropManage was adapted to vineyards by adding modules accounting for early-season soil moisture depletion and cover crop presence. A crop stress parameter was added to accommodate deficit irrigation practice, allowing the user to specify percentage departure from full water requirement along with start/stop dates. An initial verification exercise was performed on three winegrape vineyards located in California’s Central Coast (2020), North Coast (2020) and Central Valley (2019). Daily crop evapotranspiration was monitored by eddy-covariance fluxtowers. MaxCan was measured by ground and satellite observation. Stress regime was specified by grower practice where available, otherwise stress levels were inferred from applied water records. Mean absolute error and mean bias error of modeled cumulative evapotranspiration were computed with respect to the eddy covariance measurements collected throughout the growing season. Results indicate the modified CropManage water management module performs reasonably well for winegrape. Additional effort is planned to modify the nutrient module for vineyard use.

CropManage↗

Preliminary Results Cycling GEOS-JEDI with GSI-based Background Errors

The first phase of transitioning the NASA GMAO GEOS atmospheric data assimilation capabilities to JEDI involves the replacement of the Grid-point Statistical Interpolation (GSI) with a corresponding JEDI analysis. This includes taking JEDI's Unified Observation Operator (UFO), its underlying dependencies, and the JEDI solver that enables a hybrid 4DEnVar strategy similar to what is used in the current GEOS-GSI system. Variational analysis involves at least two main components associated with the observation and background cost function terms. The first is directly related to the UFO, which is being carefully validated in a joint collaboration between GMAO and NCEP to demonstrate consistency with corresponding observations usage in GSI. The second component is the background term, which in a hybrid system involves the ability to set up both a climatologically-based term and an ensemble-based term. JEDI provides the means to implement both terms through its BUMP component. Use of BUMP would require a complete re-tune of both climatological and ensemble, which is a non-trivial exercise we would prefer to avoid. As an alternative, the work here studies the results of interfacing the GSI-background error capability (GSIBEC) into JEDI through SABER. With this, the exact same background error covariance formulation used in GSI can be employed in JEDI without need for re-tuning. This brief summary covers the work done to interface GSIBEC into JEDI and shows preliminary results where the background error covariances of the control (GEOS-GSI) and experiment (GEOS-JEDI) are identical in corresponding cycling experiments. The cycling exercise is obviously preliminary and so much can be expected from GEOS-JEDI when compared to GEOS-GSI. There is still a number of features that need closer attention and although in some cases in principle ready to cycle have been intentionally either turned off or not fully exercised (e.g., VarBC is applied but not cycled). Other features are still pending implementation, one such example is the implementation of the Tangent Linear Normal Mode Constraint. Still, results are quite encouraging as hopefully the discussion here illustrates.

Ricardo Todling↗

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Map-Based Noise Simulations for DR6

The increasing statistical power of cosmic microwave background (CMB) datasets requires a commensurate effort in understanding their noise properties. The noise in maps from ground-based instruments is dominated by large-scale correlations, which poses a modeling challenge. This paper develops novel models of the complex noise covariance structure in the Atacama Cosmology Telescope Data Release 6 (ACT DR6) maps. We first enumerate the noise properties that arise from the combination of the atmosphere and the ACT scan strategy. We then prescribe a class of Gaussian, map-based noise models, including a new wavelet-based approach that uses directional wavelet kernels for modeling correlated instrumental noise. The models are empirical, whose only inputs are a small number of independent realizations of the same region of sky. We evaluate the performance of these models against the ACT DR6 data by drawing ensembles of noise realizations. Applying these simulations to the ACT DR6 power spectrum pipeline reveals a ≥ 20% excess in the covariance matrix diagonal when compared to an analytic expression that assumes noise properties are uniquely described by their power spectrum. Along with our public code, mnms, this work establishes a necessary element in the science pipelines of both ACT DR6 and future ground-based CMB experiments such as the Simons Observatory (SO).

CMBR experiments↗

Aircraft Parameter Estimation Considering Process and Measurement Noise

A practical formulation is proposed for parameter estimation using the filter-error method, which is a maximum-likelihood estimator for dynamic systems having both process and measurement noise inputs. The novelty of the proposed formulation is that by accurately estimating the measurement noise covariance matrix using a time series analysis method, the remaining unknowns (which include the unknown parameters in the state-space matrices and the process noise covariance matrix) become decorrelated and can be estimated simultaneously in a straightforward manner. The approach is demonstrated using simulation data and flight test data from a subscale airplane. Results indicate that proposed algorithm can obtain accurate modeling results when both measurement noise and process noise are present in the data.

Kalman filter↗

Vertical Structure of a Springtime Smoky and Humid Troposphere Over the Southeast Atlantic From Aircraft and Reanalysis

The springtime atmosphere over the southeast Atlantic Ocean (SEA) is subjected to a consistent layer of biomass burning (BB) smoke from widespread fires on the African continent. An elevated humidity signal is coincident with this layer, consistently proportional to the amount of smoke present. The combined humidity and BB aerosol has potentially significant radiative and dynamic impacts. Here, we use aircraft-based observations from the NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) deployments in conjunction with reanalyses to characterize covariations in humidity and BB smoke across the SEA. The observed plume–vapor relationship, and its agreement with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) and Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis, persists across all observations, although the magnitude of the relationship varies as the season progresses. Water vapor is well represented by the reanalyses, while CAMS tends to underestimate carbon monoxide especially under high BB. While CAMS aerosol optical depth (AOD) is generally overestimated relative to ORACLES AOD, the observations show a consistent relationship between carbon monoxide (CO) and aerosol extinction, demonstrating the utility of the CO tracer to understanding vertical aerosol distribution. We next use k-means clustering of the reanalyses to examine multi-year seasonal patterns and distributions. We identify canonical profile types of humidity and of CO, allowing us to characterize changes in vapor and BB atmospheric structures, and their impacts as they covary. While the humidity profiles show a range in both total water vapor concentration and in vertical structure, the CO profiles primarily vary in terms of maximum concentration, with similar vertical structures in each. The distribution of profile types varies spatiotemporally across the SEA region and through the season, ranging from largely one type in the northeast and southwest to more evenly distributed between multiple types where air masses meet in the middle of the SEA. These distributions follow patterns of transport from the humid, smoky source region (greatest influence in the northeast of the SEA) and the seasonal changes in both humidity and smoke (increasing and decreasing through the season, respectively). With this work, we establish a framework for a more complete analysis of the broader radiative and dynamical effects of humid aerosols over the SEA.

Kristina Pistone↗

Characterizing Spatiotemporal Uncertainty in Interpolated Meteorological Data

Interpolated meteorological data invariably contain errors. These errors have structure in time and space, particularly autocorrelation, which can cause the effects of errors to compound when model outputs are aggregated temporally or spatially. One way to account for this uncertainty is with a probabilistic model from which samples can be drawn that are coherent with respect to underlying spatial and temporal covariance structure. This work describes a probabilistic method for spatial interpolation of point-wise meteorological time series. Observational data from weather stations are generally sparse in space and dense in time (but sometimes missing). The method works by projecting time series onto orthogonal basis vectors and spatially interpolating each resulting component independently. Under suitable assumptions, and data transformations to better satisfy those assumptions, Gaussian process regression provides a complete description of the joint predictive distribution over a Gaussian random field. Spatiotemporally coherent realizations are generated as the sum of conditional (spatial) simulations of each orthogonal (temporal) component. Data-derived and generic orthogonal bases are considered. In addition to spatial interpolation, imputation of missing observational data is examined. The method is applied using near-surface air temperature over the Western United States and validated by comparing theoretical versus actual coverage of predictive distributions and analyzing the degree to which spatial and temporal covariance structure is reproduced. Computational considerations, relating to conditional simulation of random fields, are also addressed.

Conor T Doherty↗

Investigating Low-Altitude Constellations of Ad-Hoc Lunar PNT System for Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy

In this study, we examine a low-altitude Lunar Position, Navigation, and Timing (LPNT) constellations and the localization performance of Centralized Extended Kalman Filter (CEKF) and Decentralized Extended Kalman Filter (DEKF) algorithms. The primary investigation involves a 100-node swarm operating at a 100 km altitude, in contrast to previous studies that examined a 21-node asset in a frozen-orbit at 5,500 km. The autonomous operation of large-scale swarm is based on two-way Inter-Satellite Link (ISL) measurements, which involve pseudoranges and relative velocities among swarm nodes. We perform a numerical assessment of the two filtering approaches, utilizing ‘fully sampled’ measurements from all available assets as well as ‘two ISL’ measurements where each spacecraft is restricted to only two antennas. This research includes an analysis of CEKF under 2-ISL constraints and evaluates the performance of DEKF in a 100-node swarm, which has not been explored in previous studies. In addition, we examine the impact of increasing the sampling frequency for DEKF, showing that the update cycle can be shortened from a 10-minute interval. A novel approach for ‘2-ISL limited’ DEKF will also be introduced, using a matching formulation that exhaustively enumerates all potential matches. This study provides valuable insights into large-scale distributed swarm operations, considering various filter configurations, sampling frequencies, matching strategies, and scalability of CEKF and DEKF for low-altitude LPNT applications. The Lunar PNT technology plays a key role in providing reliable and robust navigation services on the Moon's surface and the South pole, where the primary Lunar missions are planned. To support upcoming Lunar missions, including small satellites from NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services program, the Lunar PNT system must be adaptable to smaller platforms like CubeSats. Driven by the growing involvement of public and private exploration partnerships, the traditional low Earth orbit missions are shifting to beyond geosynchronous orbit [1]. These upcoming missions aim to foster a sustainable and innovative exploration program, in collaboration with commercial and international partners, to facilitate human expansion throughout the solar system and return new knowledge and opportunities to Earth [2]. As part of this trend, there are increasing efforts to utilize science missions in Lunar orbit to develop a non-dedicated and ad-hoc PNT network system. Two traditional approaches, the Deep Space Network (DSN) and the weak signal Global Positioning System (GPS), are established deep-space navigation technologies for missions beyond the geosynchronous orbit. Beginning in 1958, the DSN was developed to communicate with the Explorer 1 spacecraft based on the use of radiometric tracking in spacecraft navigation [3]. The DSN is capable of providing nearly unfettered coverage to spacecraft beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO), however, increased space mission volume has created concerns about future expectations of DSN usage for spacecraft navigation [4]. For cislunar mission applications, the position accuracy using DSN achieves 100 m (3σ) with at least three geometrically diverse ground stations when using radiometric tracking alone [5]. The DSN's dependence on Earth-based ground stations restricts its operational capabilities to periods of Earth visibility. This limitation, coupled with its poor localization performance, renders the DSN unsuitable for future lunar missions that demand continuous tracking and precise positioning. To satisfy the increasing requirements of DSN in Lunar applications, spacecrafts are also required to improve their onboard antenna power and efficiency of the transmission. However, there is an important aggregate cost trade between adding capabilities to every spacecraft and adding to a capacity on the ground that serves multiple spacecraft [6]. A weak GPS system can provide PNT service while the user spacecraft is bound to the Moon, leveraging a single, steerable high gain antenna with the relatively narrow beam which includes all the sources in its field of view [7]. However, the higher the altitude the receiver is above the GPS constellations, the poorer and the weaker are the relative geometry and the received signal powers, respectively, leading to a significant navigation accuracy reduction [8]. The transmitted power becomes weaker with increasing distance from the Earth as well as signals tracked from one of the side lobes of the GPS antenna pattern. As a results, the number of visible satellites and relative geometric condition of the GPS satellites at very high altitude drops dramatically and reduces the navigation solution accuracy. Therefore, the weak GPS system is also not an ideal way to provide PNT service to upcoming Lunar missions when considering its limited geometric condition and the recued navigation accuracy. Another navigation approach on the Moon is being developed, similar to the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) on Earth, aiming to offer navigation service with continuous 24/7 coverage across the entire Lunar surface. For example, lunar communications relay and navigation systems (LCRNS) by NASA and Lunar navigation satellite systems (LNSS) by JAXA are designed to serve as dedicated Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) systems for the Moon. However, designing a dedicated LNSS and PNT service involves additional challenges, which are unique to the lunar environment, including limited payload capacity for the CubeSat platform, i.e., the size, weight, and power (SWaP) of the onboard clock, limited lunar ground monitoring stations, and limited financial investment as compared to the legacy Earth-GPS [9]. NASA’s focus on utilizing CubeSat platforms on the Moon leads to an alternative Lunar navigation platform that leverages the existing Lunar science and exploration assets. The small satellites used in Lunar missions can be used to create a low-cost, autonomous, ad-hoc, and on-demand mission-centric Lunar PNT swarm capable of providing PNT services to these low-cost lunar missions [10]. As upcoming Lunar missions will often operate at low-altitude about 30 km to 100 km for scientific observations and mapping purposes, the low-altitude orbital constellations could be employed to create an ad-hoc Lunar PNT system. However, several issues must be addressed, such as the instability of these orbits, which often require maintenance or are only suitable for short-duration missions, operating for fewer than 90 days. Additionally, at an altitude of 100 km, the satellites have a limited period during which they are above the horizon and capable of providing PNT service to users. The implementation of a non-dedicated, ad-hoc Lunar navigation constellation facilitates on-demand PNT services. A preliminary study of ad-hoc Lunar PNT system was conducted using 21 spacecraft in 5,5000 km altitude frozen orbits to test its feasibility and a basic performance of orbital asset localization among ad-hoc Lunar constellations in small satellites format [10]. These swarm assets are designed for autonomous localization with minimal Earth interaction, reducing dependency on bandwidth and ground resources. The design in [10] demonstrated the feasibility of a decentralized PNT approach, specifically employing a DEKF approach for state estimation, which helps minimize onboard operating costs. The DEKF method distributes computation across individual satellites, which lightens the computational load while maintaining accuracy in orbit ephemeris and clock offsets, similar to centralized systems [11]. In a follow-on study [12], each spacecraft was limited to 2 communications antennae, forcing the selection of measurements and scheduling spacecraft activities to perform the measurements. A matching algorithm is implemented to select the best measurements and schedule position estimation updates. The decentralized localization performance is also investigated with increasing levels of network degradation for swarm assets considering the impact of intermittent and permanent communication failure, to demonstrate the robustness and fidelity of the decentralized Lunar PNT service [13]. This study confirmed that the ad-hoc PNT constellations in frozen orbit are highly robust and resilient to communication failures. However, unlike frozen orbit swarm assets, the low-altitude satellites have a limited ground view at an altitude of 100 km, where the ad-hoc Lunar constellation consists of 98 low-altitude satellites, evenly distributed across seven circular polar orbital planes, alongside two satellites in a frozen orbit at an altitude of 5,500 km (Figure 1). Therefore, the number of satellites visible to ground users is significantly limited in low-altitude orbit constellations. As each visibility of a spacecraft remains intact for only a few ticks before it moves out of the field of view, the ground user encounters challenges in maintaining continuous navigation service, resulting in sparse availability and provision of Lunar PNT system. Consequently, service availability is primarily restricted to the Lunar South Pole region (Figure 2). Given these limitations and concerns, the localization performance of low-altitude swarm assets will be assessed in this study. We focus on the investigation of the localization performance of low-altitude swarm assets and ground users near the Lunar South Pole. The overall flow of the Lunar PNT simulation incorporates the DEKF approach of asset localization and the weighted least-squares approach in user localization (Figure 3). The autonomous Lunar PNT simulation is primarily implemented in MATLAB, where the DEKF based on the matching scheduler is implemented with Google’s OR-tools as a model builder and Gurobi optimization tool as a backend solver. The General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) is utilized to generate ephemeris data for swarm assets, and accounts for satellite orbital details, mass, and perturbations like solar radiation pressure and drag coefficients. Each ephemeris dataset is produced in the Moon International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF) inertial coordinate system. For state estimation, the distributed swarm assets rely on two-way Inter-Satellite Link (ISL) measurements, which involve tracking pseudoranges and relative velocities between visible satellites and anchor nodes during each observation. Numerical evaluations of the decentralized localization process are conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the low-altitude PNT system in providing reliable navigation services. The main approach involves using DEKF and CEKF to localize 100 satellites in low-altitude constellations, where the CEKF is implemented to serve as a baseline for comparing the performance of distributed algorithms. In both cases, we evaluate ‘fully sampled’ measurements from all available assets, and ‘two ISL’ measurements when spacecraft are constrained to have only two antennas. We test four estimation techniques: CEKF fully sampled, CEKF two ISL, DEKF fully sampled, and DEKF two ISL filters. As the DEKF update cycle is comprised of network setup, communication, and computations, a global broadcast network and 2-way ISL network setup will take from 4 to 6 minutes as maximum [12]. In this simulation, the DEKF update cycle is set to 10 minutes, including a 4-minute latency for obtaining and computing the actual measurement updates. We experiment an increased update cycle to demonstrate the feasibility and evaluate the impact on localization performance using various tuning values for measurement noise covariances (Figures 4 and 5). By comparing centralized and decentralized approaches using a matching algorithm, we analyze the influence of cross-correlation factors in the covariance matrix, assuming 100% reliability of all assets and measurements. The increased frequency and the adjustments of tuning parameters reveal distinct error patterns between the two scenarios. The localization accuracy of the swarm assets and ground users is assessed by taking the median error across 100 assets and one ground user (84.9°S, 137.5°E) over 7-day simulation period (Table 1). Since the user localization accuracy is significantly affected by the performance of the swarm assets, it is crucial to maintain high localization accuracy within the swarm. This study will continue to explore decentralized filtering for autonomous LPNT operations, with further investigation of an 'iterative' matching approach which enumerates every valid matching pair, planned for the following month.

Yeji Kim↗

Techniques in Assessing Random Uncertainty of Wind Tunnel Replicate Test Data

The preferred method to determine the random uncertainty of variables of interest during wind tunnel tests is by direct analysis of replicate data. However, current information is limited to analysis of a single replicate set condition that does not consider data covariance. This paper provides additional information on considerations for quantifying random uncertainty including the evaluation and correction of replicate data covariance, the selection of replicate set conditions for the test, and the interpolation of random uncertainty at other than replicate set conditions. The analysis and techniques are supported by data from a conventional aircraft configuration test at the Oran Nicks Low-Speed Wind Tunnel and an ASME nozzle flow characterization at the Propulsion Systems Laboratory.

Uncertainty↗

Modernization efforts for the R -Matrix code SAMMY [Abstract]

The R-Matrix code SAMMY is a widely used nuclear data evaluation code focused on the resolved range, which includes corrections for experimental effects. The code is still mostly written in Fortran 77, and uses a memory management system suitable for the time of its initial writing (1984). A modernization effort is under way to bring the code in-line with modern software development practices. A continuous-integration testing framework was added, automating the large existing set of test cases. It is run on every commit. The memory management was updated to current standard practices suitable for modern software analysis tools. The code can be obtained from https://code.ornl.gov/RNSD/SAMMY. The resonance parameters and covariance information are now stored in C++ objects shared by SAMMY and AMPX, the processing code that generates nuclear data libraries for SCALE. This allows for easier maintenance and access to the resonance parameters inside and outside of SAMMY. This feature is already used by accessing and changing parameters in memory in the Bayesian Monte Carlo Evaluation Framework for Cross Sections Nuclear Data and Integral Benchmark Experiments project, Further plans include the switch to the ENDF reading and writing routines in AMPX, as these routines are more robust, easier to maintain, and support more features. Of note here is support for the new GNDS format. Previously it wasn’t easy to share the full covariance matrix for evaluations containing more than one isotope due to limitations on the ENDF format; this is now supported in GNDS. The data are currently available in a binary SAMMY format and can be exported to GNDS to make them more widely available and sharable. The next step will be to use the same resonance processing code at 0K in AMPX and SAMMY as one of the available Reich-Moore R-Matrix formalism. The first step toward this goal is to isolate the reconstruction into a module that takes resonance parameters as its input and does not depend on SAMMY global parameters. This goal has been achieved and it should now be possible to more easily change the resonance formalism and add enhancements as the Phenomenological R-Matrix parameterization of direct, doorway, and compound nuclear reactions discussed elsewhere on this conference. This concerted modernization and enhancement effort provides multiple advantages to the nuclear data community. It will allow parameter optimization using enhanced formalisms, including experimental effects, that better match complex experimental data. Then those evaluated parameters can immediately be passed off to AMPX to be reconstructed with the exact same cross section model and be put into a data library for subsequent testing using SCALE and the Valid Benchmark suite or other suitable benchmark suites.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Bayesian Monte Carlo Evaluation Framework for Imperfect Data and Models [Abstract]

Nuclear data evaluation methods conventionally make the following assumptions: prior and posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of all model parameters and data are normal (Gaussian); the linear approximation is sufficiently accurate for minimization of a cost function (even for non-linear models); and that both the model (of, e.g., neutron cross section) and experimental data (including their covariance data) are perfect. These assumptions are inherent to the well-known generalized linear least squares (GLLS) minimization method commonly used for evaluations of resolved resonance region (RRR) neutron cross sections. However, these assumptions are often not justified due to the presence of non-normal PDFs, non-linear models (e.g. R -matrix formalism), and inherent imperfections in data and models (e.g. discrepant data sets, discrepancies between the previous evaluation and newly measured data, or imperfect covariance data). We remove the said assumptions in a mathematical framework of Bayes’ theorem, and implement it using the Metropolis-Hastings Monte Carlo method. Parameters of a new kind are introduced to parameterize inherent imperfections, e.g. , any discrepancies between the theoretical model and measured data. These new parameters enable evaluators to quantify their expert judgement about any discrepancies or imperfections in a reproducible manner. We demonstrate the framework with an ongoing evaluation of 233 U in the eV region using the ENDF-B/VIII library and transmission data measured by Guber, et al. , and compare the posterior parameters to those obtained by conventional evaluation methods.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Correlation Calculations for the Russian Pu Metal Fast Experiments

Nuclear criticality experiments are often conducted in campaigns with multiple variations. These experiments reuse the same basic components, like the fuel, moderator, or positioning machines. The components have uncertainties in their geometry and composition that propagate to models of the experiments. Shared components create shared uncertainty between the $k_{eff}$ of benchmarks. The shared uncertainty is commonly quantified with a covariance, or correlation coefficient. These covariances can impact criticality safety and nuclear data validation applications. While benchmark evaluations tabulate an experiment’s uncertainty, they often lack a detailed calculation of correlations between experiments. Even some very commonly used benchmarks, like the Russian Pu Metal Fast (PMF) experiments, have missing correlations. This paper presents our approach to calculate the correlations for five of the Russian PMF experiments. The experiments share hemispherical Pu shells that induce a correlation between modeled $k_{eff}$ values. We estimated the correlations with simplified and detailed models of the experiments through linear-perturbation theory. The correlations between the experiments vary significantly between the detailed vs. simplified models. We also investigate how the correlations affect validation metrics of the experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Decoding Golden Eagle Movement Behavior from High-Resolution, Variable-Rate Telemetry Data Through Bayesian Filtering

The recent advances in animal tracking technology have enabled the collection of a vast amount of in situ data regarding the movement of wildlife at high spatiotemporal resolution. These data are usually available at variable time resolutions and contains noise (error) originating from GPS fixes. Decoding movement characteristics, particularly of flying animals, from telemetry data while handling these factors is a challenging yet important task for conservation purposes. Typically, this task is broken into two subtasks: resampling, and model calibration. The resampling subtask converts the variable rate positional data into a constant time interval data, while the model calibration subtask uses the resampled data to tune time-invariant parameters of the proposed models. For telemetry data at high temporal resolutions (order of 1 second), it is very challenging to decouple noise from actual movements using interpolation-based resampling techniques. Any errors introduced during resampling can significantly alter the the calibration and prediction attributes of the movement model. We address this problem through a unified Bayesian state-space framework that can handle both the resampling and calibration tasks in a single step. In addition, we use the speed and heading of the bird from telemetry data to regularize the position information of the bird. We use a Kalman filtering approach to include these nonlinearly related motion parameters within the state space framework. We cross-validated to quantify how this inclusion affects the model performance in estimating true bird movements. The relationship between the true state of the bird and environmental and topographical covariates is then represented parametrically. These parameters are then tuned using stochastic sampling strategies like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We use the telemetry data collected from golden eagles in the western USA to demonstrate the applicability of this approach to build a predictive, probabilistic movement model. Our preliminary results show that this approach provides improved predictive performance in terms of capturing higher-order motion parameters such as angular and horizontal accelerations, which may have simpler and more direct relationships with environmental covariates than corresponding speeds. In this talk, we will demonstrate how this state-space approach benefits the prediction capabilities of a movement model in simulating golden eagle paths through a wind power plant in Wyoming given certain atmospheric conditions. The model outcomes are aimed at informing mitigation strategies that can minimize the potential for collisions of golden eagles with wind turbines.

Bayesian methods↗

DESI-DR1 $3 \times 2$-pt analysis: consistent cosmology across weak lensing surveys

We present a joint cosmological analysis of projected galaxy clustering observations from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Data Release 1 (DESI-DR1), and overlapping weak gravitational lensing observations from three datasets: the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-1000), the Dark Energy Survey (DES-Y3), and the Hyper-Suprime-Cam Survey (HSC-Y3). This combination of large-scale structure probes allows us to measure a set of $3 \times 2$-pt correlation functions, breaking the degeneracies between parameters in cosmological fits to individual observables. We obtain mutually-consistent constraints on the parameter $S_8 = σ_8 \sqrt{Ω_{\rm m}/0.3} = 0.786^{+0.022}_{-0.019}$ from the combination of DESI-DR1 and DES-Y3, $S_8 = 0.760^{+0.020}_{-0.018}$ from KiDS-1000, and $S_8 = 0.771^{+0.026}_{-0.027}$ from HSC-Y3. These parameter determinations are consistent with fits to the Planck Cosmic Microwave Background dataset, albeit with $1.5-2σ$ lower values in the $S_8-Ω_{\rm m}$ plane. We perform our analysis with a unified pipeline tailored to the requirements of each cosmic shear survey, which self-consistently determines cosmological and astrophysical parameters. We generate an analytical covariance matrix for the correlation data including all cross-covariances between probes, and we design a new blinding procedure to safeguard our analysis against confirmation bias, whilst leaving goodness-of-fit statistics unchanged. Our study is part of a suite of papers that present joint cosmological analyses of DESI-DR1 and weak gravitational lensing datasets.

Porredon, A. [Madrid, CIEMAT; Edinburgh U., Inst. ↗

First Detection of the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) Feature in the 3-Point Correlation Function of DESI DR1 Luminous Red Galaxies

We present the first detection of the 3-Point Correlation Function (3PCF) Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) signal from the DESI Data Release 1 (DR1) sample of Luminous Red Galaxies (LRGs), which contains over 2.1 million galaxies. Our analysis is based on a tree-level redshift-space bispectrum template, which is then transformed to position space using the Fast Fourier Transform on Logarithmic scales (FFTLog) algorithm. We detect the BAO feature with a significance of approximately $8.1σ$ using the EZmock covariance matrix and $8.5σ$ using the analytical covariance matrix, for the full LRG redshift range ($0.4

Kamalinejad, Farshad [Florida U.] (ORCID:000000017↗

Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme

The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector. *************************************** AUTHOR = Slater, Bethany University of Liverpool b.slater2@liverpool.ac.uk TITLE = Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme PAGES = 218 NOTE = Ph.D. University of Liverpool March 2026 ABSTRACT = The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector.

Slater, Bethany [Liverpool U.]↗

Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme

The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector. *************************************** AUTHOR = Slater, Bethany University of Liverpool b.slater2@liverpool.ac.uk TITLE = Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme PAGES = 218 NOTE = Ph.D. University of Liverpool March 2026 ABSTRACT = The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector.

Slater, Bethany [Liverpool U.]↗

Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme

The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector. *************************************** AUTHOR = Slater, Bethany University of Liverpool b.slater2@liverpool.ac.uk TITLE = Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme PAGES = 218 NOTE = Ph.D. University of Liverpool March 2026 ABSTRACT = The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector.

Slater, Bethany [Liverpool U.]↗