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At least 1,027 records · Page 57

Prediction Uncertainties beyond the Range of Experience: A Case Study in Inertial Confinement Fusion Implosion Experiments

Scientists often predict physical outcomes, e.g., experimental results, with the assistance of computer codes that, at their best, only coarsely approximate reality. Coarse predictions are challenging in critical part due to the multitude of seemingly arbitrary yet consequential decisions that must be made such as choice of relevant data, calibration of code parameters, and construction of empirical discrepancy forms. In this paper, we present a case study in the context of inertial confinement fusion (ICF) implosion experiments where extrapolative predictions are needed with quantified uncertainties. The purpose of this case study is to reflect relevant statistical methods, as applied to ICF model fitting and prediction, to document the numerous decisions that must be made in the prediction pipeline, to extend a complex example in extrapolation to the uncertainty quantification (UQ) community, and to reflect on the challenges we encountered supporting extrapolations with imperfect models and thereby recommend several future research directions. We conclude with a discussion about the UQ community's role in less than ideal predictive scenarios like our ICF exercise.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Color confinement from fluctuating topology

QCD possesses a compact gauge group, and this implies a non-trivial topological structure of the vacuum. In this contribution to the Gribov-85 Memorial volume, we first discuss the origin of Gribov copies and their interpretation in terms of fluctuating topology in the QCD vacuum. We then describe the recent work with E. Levin that links the confinement of gluons and color screening to the fluctuating topology, and discuss implications for spin physics, high energy scattering, and the physics of quark-gluon plasma.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

External Heat Transfer Coefficient Measurements on a Surrogate Indirect Inertial Confinement Fusion Target

External heat transfer coefficients were measured around a surrogate Indirect inertial confinement fusion (ICF) based on the Laser Inertial Fusion Energy (LIFE) design target to validate thermal models of the LIFE target during flight through a fusion chamber. Results indicate that heat transfer coefficients for this target 25-50 W/m 2 ∙K are consistent with theoretically derived heat transfer coefficients and valid for use in calculation of target heating during flight through a fusion chamber.

42 ENGINEERING↗

FINAL REPORT: Room Temperature Hydrogen Storage in Nano-Confined Liquids

DOE continues to seek solid-state hydrogen storage materials with hydrogen densities of ≥6 wt% and ≥50 g/L that can deliver hydrogen and be recharged at room temperature and moderate pressures enabling widespread use in transportation applications. Meanwhile, development including vehicle engineering and delivery infrastructure continues for compressed-gas hydrogen storage systems. Although compressed gas storage avoids the materials-based issues associated with solid-state storage, achieving acceptable volumetric densities has been a persistent challenge. This project examined the possibility of developing storage materials that would be compatible with compressed gas storage technology based on enhanced hydrogen solubility in nano-confined liquid solvents. These materials would store hydrogen in molecular form eliminating many limitations of current solid-state materials while increasing the volumetric capacity of compressed hydrogen storage vessels.

08 HYDROGEN↗

An Overview of the Los Alamos Inertial Confinement Fusion and High-Energy-Density Physics Research Programs

The Los Alamos Inertial Confinement Fusion and Science Programs engage in a vigorous array of experiments, theory, and modeling. We use the three major High Energy Density facilities, NIF, Omega, and Z to perform experiments. These include opacity, radiation transport, hydrodynamics, ignition science, and burn experiments to aid the ICF and Science campaigns in reaching their stewardship goals. The ICF program operates two nuclear diagnostics at NIF, the neutron imaging system and the gamma reaction history instruments. Both systems are being expanded with significant capability enhancements.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Fiber-Optic Bolometer and Calorimeter Arrays for Magnetically Confined Plasmas

Bolometers measure the plasma radiation and provide essential diagnostic information both for safe, sustainable operation of magnetic-confinement fusion (MCF) devices and for study of the relevant physics. The fusion community has been replying on resistive bolometers for plasma radiation measurement. However, their performance is greatly compromised by the strong electromagnetic interference present in MCF devices. Previously, we have demonstrated a fiber-optic bolometer that has the promise to overcome the challenges related to the strong EMI in the MCF environment. In this project, we study the performance of the fiber-optic bolometer in a simulated MCF environment and improved the sensitivity through a novel sensor design. Part of the work reported here was performed between 09/01-12/31/2017 when the PI was with University of Nebraska-Lincoln under the same project but with a different award number (DE-SC0018273).

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Using radiochemistry to diagnose fuel-ablator mix in inertial confinement fusion studies at the National Ignition Facility: measurement of Tc/Mo isotopic ratios for the Pushered Single Shell campaign

The development of radiochemical measurement techniques as a diagnostic for fusion experiments at the National Ignition Facility enables a new method for assessing fuel-ablator mix and the impact of this mix on capsule performance. Diagnosing capsule mix in internal confinement fusion studies is difficult due to the small spatial scales (10s of µm) and short-time frames (100s of ps) over which the mix typically evolves in these experiments. For the Pushered Single Shell campaign, radiochemical measurements on debris collected from fusion experiments can be used to determine isotopic ratios of activation products, particularly 96g Tc/ 99 Mo and 95g Tc/ 99 Mo, to provide vital information on nuclear reactions in the burning plasma that can inform simulations that seek to understand the degree of capsule-fuel mix and the impact on the capsule performance. These radiochemical measurements have been conducted regularly since November 2023 providing data on a range of capsule designs and neutron yields. Data from eight NIF experiments is presented, the measured 96g Tc/ 99 Mo and 95g Tc/ 99 Mo range from (0.5–5) × 10 –4 to (0.3–3) × 10 –4 , respectively. The development of radiochemical diagnostics aids in understanding and optimizing the design of fusion experiments, providing unique and valuable insights into capsule behavior and directly measuring fuel-ablator mix.

and nuclear chemistry↗

Central Density and Low-Mode Perturbation Control of Inertial Confinement Fusion Dynamic-Shell Targets

The dynamic-shell target is a new class of design for inertial confinement fusion (ICF). These targets address some of the target fabrication challenges prevalent in current ICF targets and take advantage of advances in manufacturing technologies. This study first examines how the dynamic-shell design can be used to control the density of the central region and therefore convergence ratio, thus expanding the design space for ICF. Additionally, the concern of low-mode perturbation growth is considered. A new class of high-performing beam configurations, based on icosahedral polyhedra and charged-particle simulations is proposed. These configurations achieve low levels of irradiation nonuniformity through selection of beam shapes that suppress the dominant symmetrical mode.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Gamma-based nuclear fusion measurements at inertial confinement fusion facilities

Experiments performed on an inertial confinement fusion (ICF) platform offer a unique opportunity to study nuclear reactions, including reaction branches that are useful for diagnostic applications in ICF experiments as well as several that are relevant to nuclear astrophysics. In contrast to beam-accelerator experiments, experiments performed on an ICF platform occur over a short time scale and produce a plasma environment with physical parameters that are directly relevant to big bang and/or stellar nucleosynthesis. Several reactions of interest, such as D(T,γ) 5 He, H(D,γ) 3 He, H(T,γ) 4 He, and T( 3 He,γ) 6 Li produce high-energy gamma rays. S factors or branching ratios for these four reactions have recently been studied using various temporally-resolved Cherenkov detectors at the Omega laser facility. This work describes these detectors as well as the current standard technique for performing these measurements. Recent results for reactions D(T,γ) 5 He, H(D,γ) 3 He, H(T,γ) 4 He, and T( 3 He,γ) 6 Li are reviewed and compared to accelerator-based measurements. Limitations associated with implosion experiments and use of the current standard gamma detectors are discussed. A basic design for a gamma spectrometer for use at ICF facilities is briefly outlined.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The Proton Density of States in Confined Water (H2O)

The hydrogen density of states (DOS) in confined water has been probed by inelastic neutron scattering spectra in a wide range of its P–T phase diagram. The liquid–liquid transition and the dynamical crossover from the fragile (super-Arrhenius) to strong (Arrhenius) glass forming behavior have been studied, by taking into account the system polymorphism in both the liquid and amorphous solid phases. The interest is focused in the low energy region of the DOS ( E < 10 meV) and the data are discussed in terms of the energy landscape (local minima of the potential energy) approach. In this latest research, we consider a unit scale energy (EC) linked to the water local order governed by the hydrogen bonding (HB). All the measured spectra, scaled according to such energy, evidence a universal power law behavior with different exponents ( γ ) in the strong and fragile glass forming regions, respectively. In the first case, the DOS data obey the Debye squared-frequency law, whereas, in the second one, we obtain a value predicted in terms of the mode-coupling theory (MCT) ( γ ≃ 1.6 ).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

What Machine Learning Can and Cannot Do for Inertial Confinement Fusion

Machine learning methodologies have played remarkable roles in solving complex systems with large data, well-defined input–output pairs, and clearly definable goals and metrics. The methodologies are effective in image analysis, classification, and systems without long chains of logic. Recently, machine-learning methodologies have been widely applied to inertial confinement fusion (ICF) capsules and the design optimization of OMEGA (Omega Laser Facility) capsule implosion and NIF (National Ignition Facility) ignition capsules, leading to significant progress. As machine learning is being increasingly applied, concerns arise regarding its capabilities and limitations in the context of ICF. ICF is a complicated physical system that relies on physics knowledge and human judgment to guide machine learning. Additionally, the experimental database for ICF ignition is not large enough to provide credible training data. Most researchers in the field of ICF use simulations, or a mix of simulations and experimental results, instead of real data to train machine learning models and related tools. They then use the trained learning model to predict future events. This methodology can be successful, subject to a careful choice of data and simulations. However, because of the extreme sensitivity of the neutron yield to the input implosion parameters, physics-guided machine learning for ICF is extremely important and necessary, especially when the database is small, the uncertain-domain knowledge is large, and the physical capabilities of the learning models are still being developed. In this work, we identify problems in ICF that are suitable for machine learning and circumstances where machine learning is less likely to be successful. This study investigates the applications of machine learning and highlights fundamental research challenges and directions associated with machine learning in ICF.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A Physical Metric for Inertial Confinement Fusion Capsules

The performance of fusion capsules on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) is strongly affected by the physical properties of the hot deuterium–tritium (DT) fuel, such as the mass, areal density, and pressure of the hot spot at the stagnation time. All of these critical quantities depend on one measured quantity, which is the ratio of the specific peak implosion energy to the specific internal energy of the hot spot. This unique physical quantity not only can measure the incremental progress of the inertial confinement fusion capsules towards ignition but also measures the conversion of the peak implosion kinetic energy of the pusher shell into the internal energy of the hot fuel in a capsule. Analysis of existing NIF shots to date are performed. The ratio metric is compared quantitatively with the ignition criterion. Results provide new perspectives on the NIF experiments by which the performance of the burning plasma can be determined and controlled through the fine tune of the implosion parameters, which improves future designs and predictions of the ignition capsules.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The Effect of Topology on Phase Behavior under Confinement

This work studies how morphology (i.e., the shape of a structure) and topology (i.e., how different structures are connected) influence wall adsorption and capillary condensation under tight confinement. Numerical simulations based on classical density functional theory (cDFT) are run for a wide variety of geometries using both hard-sphere and Lennard-Jones fluids. These cDFT computations are compared to results obtained using the Minkowski functionals. It is found that the Minkowski functionals can provide a good description of the behavior of Lennard-Jones fluids down to small system sizes. In addition, through decomposition of the free energy, the Minkowski functionals provide a good framework to better understand what are the dominant contributions to the phase behavior of a system. Lastly, while studying the phase envelope shift as a function of the Minkowski functionals it is found that topology has a different effect depending on whether the phase transition under consideration is a continuous or a discrete (first-order) transition.

42 ENGINEERING↗