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Development of an ERT‐Based Framework for Bentonite Buffers Monitoring From Laboratory Tests: 2. Quantitative Moisture Dynamics Estimation Model

Abstract The long‐term containment of high‐level radioactive waste in geological disposal repositories relies on Engineered Barrier Systems (EBS), with bentonite clay emerging as a candidate material due to its unique properties. Understanding moisture dynamics within bentonite buffers is crucial for EBS performance, as it directly influences the material's swelling capacity, thermal and hydraulic conductivity, mechanical properties, and long‐term evolution under complex thermal‐hydrological‐mechanical (THM) processes. This study develops an advanced Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT)‐based framework to quantitatively monitor moisture dynamics under THM conditions. Our framework extends the Waxman‐Smits model to incorporate the coupled effects of temperature, water content, fluid chemistry, and mechanical changes on bentonite's electrical properties. Utilizing HotBENT‐Lab data from our companion paper, which includes electrical conductivity, CT density, and thermocouple measurements, this study offers a novel methodological framework bridging different scales of the model. Our results show that the extended model can estimate water content from ERT data, capturing spatial and temporal variations in moisture distribution within bentonite columns. However, the model tends to overestimate water content compared to CT density‐derived measurements. We address this discrepancy by incorporating a simplified swelling effect model, which improves agreement between ERT and CT density‐based water content estimates. We also discuss model limitations, including simplified treatment of swelling and micropore effects, and propose a conceptual framework for transitioning from laboratory to field applications, addressing challenges such as parameter scalability, field validation methods, and integration of diverse data sources. This ERT‐based framework can potentially advance real‐world moisture monitoring of bentonite‐based EBS in nuclear waste repositories. Plain Language Summary Safely containing high‐level radioactive waste depends on barriers made from materials like bentonite clay, which is effective because it swells and seals in the waste. To ensure these barriers work well over time, it's important to understand how moisture moves through the clay. Our study developed a new method using ERT to monitor moisture levels in bentonite under conditions that mimic those in actual storage sites, including changes in temperature, water content, and mechanical stress. This study improved an existing model to better account for how these factors affect the clay, allowing us to create more accurate moisture maps. Initially, the proposed model overestimated the amount of water in the clay, but its accuracy was improved by factoring in how the clay swells when wet. This study also identified some limitations of the model and suggested ways to adapt it for use in real‐world waste storage sites. This new approach could lead to better monitoring and safety checks for nuclear waste storage systems, helping to ensure long‐term containment. Key Points This work develops an ERT‐based framework extending the Waxman‐Smits model to monitor bentonite moisture dynamics during coupled THM processes The extended model accurately estimates water content from Electrical Resistivity Tomography data, incorporating swelling effects to improve precision This work proposes a conceptual framework for transitioning from laboratory to field applications, advancing EBS monitoring in nuclear waste repositories

Chen, Hang↗

Simulator for Hydrologic Unstructured Domains (SHUD v1.0): numerical modeling of watershed hydrology with the finite volume method

Abstract. Hydrologic modeling is an essential strategy for understanding and predicting natural flows, particularly where observations are lacking in either space or time or where complex terrain leads to a disconnect in the characteristic time and space scales of overland and groundwater flow. However, significant difficulties remain for the development of efficient and extensible modeling systems that operate robustly across complex regions. This paper introduces the Simulator for Hydrologic Unstructured Domains (SHUD), an integrated, multiprocess, multiscale, flexible-time-step model, in which hydrologic processes are fully coupled using the finite volume method. SHUD integrates overland flow, snow accumulation/melt, evapotranspiration, subsurface flow, groundwater flow, and river routing, thus allowing physical processes in general watersheds to be realistically captured. SHUD incorporates one-dimensional unsaturated flow, two-dimensional groundwater flow, and a fully connected river channel network with hillslopes supporting overland flow and baseflow. The paper introduces the design of SHUD, from the conceptual and mathematical description of hydrologic processes in a watershed to the model's computational structures. To demonstrate and validate the model performance, we employ three hydrologic experiments: the V-catchment experiment, Vauclin's experiment, and a model study of the Cache Creek Watershed in northern California. Ongoing applications of the SHUD model include hydrologic analyses of hillslope to regional scales (1 m2 to 106 km2), water resource and stormwater management, and interdisciplinary research for questions in limnology, agriculture, geochemistry, geomorphology, water quality, ecology, climate and land-use change. The strength of SHUD is its flexibility as a scientific and resource evaluation tool where modeling and simulation are required.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Aircraft Structural Mass Property Prediction Using Conceptual-Level Structural Analysis

This paper describes a methodology that extends the use of the Equivalent LAminated Plate Solution (ELAPS) structural analysis code from conceptual-level aircraft structural analysis to conceptual-level aircraft mass property analysis. Mass property analysis in aircraft structures has historically depended upon parametric weight equations at the conceptual design level and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) at the detailed design level ELAPS allows for the modeling of detailed geometry, metallic and composite materials, and non-structural mass coupled with analytical structural sizing to produce high-fidelity mass property analyses representing fully configured vehicles early in the design process. This capability is especially valuable for unusual configuration and advanced concept development where existing parametric weight equations are inapplicable and FEA is too time consuming for conceptual design. This paper contrasts the use of ELAPS relative to empirical weight equations and FEA. ELAPS modeling techniques are described and the ELAPS-based mass property analysis process is detailed Examples of mass property stochastic calculations produced during a recent systems study are provided This study involved the analysis of three remotely piloted aircraft required to carry scientific payloads to very high altitudes at subsonic speeds. Due to the extreme nature of this high-altitude flight regime,few existing vehicle designs are available for use in performance and weight prediction. ELAPS was employed within a concurrent engineering analysis process that simultaneously produces aerodynamic, structural, and static aeroelastic results for input to aircraft performance analyses. The ELAPS models produced for each concept were also used to provide stochastic analyses of wing structural mass properties. The results of this effort indicate that ELAPS is an efficient means to conduct multidisciplinary trade studies at the conceptual design level.

Sexstone, Matthew G.↗

Aircraft Structural Mass Property Prediction Using Conceptual-Level Structural Analysis

This paper describes a methodology that extends the use of the Equivalent LAminated Plate Solution (ELAPS) structural analysis code from conceptual-level aircraft structural analysis to conceptual-level aircraft mass property analysis. Mass property analysis in aircraft structures has historically depended upon parametric weight equations at the conceptual design level and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) at the detailed design level. ELAPS allows for the modeling of detailed geometry, metallic and composite materials, and non-structural mass coupled with analytical structural sizing to produce high-fidelity mass property analyses representing fully configured vehicles early in the design process. This capability is especially valuable for unusual configuration and advanced concept development where existing parametric weight equations are inapplicable and FEA is too time consuming for conceptual design. This paper contrasts the use of ELAPS relative to empirical weight equations and FEA. ELAPS modeling techniques are described and the ELAPS-based mass property analysis process is detailed. Examples of mass property stochastic calculations produced during a recent systems study are provided. This study involved the analysis of three remotely piloted aircraft required to carry scientific payloads to very high altitudes at subsonic speeds. Due to the extreme nature of this high-altitude flight regime, few existing vehicle designs are available for use in performance and weight prediction. ELAPS was employed within a concurrent engineering analysis process that simultaneously produces aerodynamic, structural, and static aeroelastic results for input to aircraft performance analyses. The ELAPS models produced for each concept were also used to provide stochastic analyses of wing structural mass properties. The results of this effort indicate that ELAPS is an efficient means to conduct multidisciplinary trade studies at the conceptual design level.

Sexstone, Matthew G.↗

Flavor as an Incomplete Structure: Conceptual Questions and the Role of DUNE

Flavor remains one of the most successful yet least understood structures of the Standard Model. The discovery of the Higgs boson completed the electroweak account of mass generation, but did not explain the origin of fermion families, mass hierarchies, or mixing patterns. In this sense, flavor can be regarded as an empirically successful but conceptually incomplete structure. Neutrinos occupy a particularly sensitive place within this problem: their masses are tiny, their mixing is large, and their mass-generation mechanism may differ from that of charged fermions. In this article, we discuss flavor as an open conceptual problem and argue that DUNE, as a phased program spanning precision oscillation measurements and sensitivity to BSM and dark-sector phenomena, provides a powerful framework for testing the self-consistency and possible limits of the present three-flavor description. In particular, the complementarity between the long-baseline program and the Phase I near-detector complex, together with the DUNE-PRISM strategy for controlling interaction-model systematics and enabling data-driven near-to-far predictions, makes DUNE especially well-suited to search for small, correlated departures from the minimal flavor framework.

Montanari, Claudio S. [Fermilab; INFN, Pavia] (ORC↗

Postseismic viscoelastic surface deformation and stress. Part 1: Theoretical considerations, displacement and strain calculations

A model of viscoelastic deformations associated with earthquakes is presented. A strike-slip fault is represented by a rectangular dislocation in a viscoelastic layer (lithosphere) lying over a viscoelastic half-space (asthenosphere). Deformations occur on three time scales. The initial response is governed by the instantaneous elastic properties of the earth. A slower response is associated with viscoelastic relaxation of the lithosphere and a yet slower response is due to viscoelastic relaxation of the asthenosphere. The major conceptual contribution is the inclusion of lithospheric viscoelastic properties into a dislocation model of earthquake related deformations and stresses. Numerical calculations using typical fault parameters reveal that the postseismic displacements and strains are small compared to the coseismic ones near the fault, but become significant further away. Moreover, the directional sense of the deformations attributable to the elastic response, the lithospheric viscoelastic softening, and the asthenospheric viscoelastic flow may differ and depend on location and model details. The results and theoretical arguments suggest that the stress changes accompanying lithospheric relaxation may also be in a different sense than and be larger than the strain changes.

Cohen, S. C.↗

Conceptual Problems in Land Surface Data Assimilation

A land data assimilation system (LDAS) merges observations (or satellite retrievals) of land surface hydrological conditions, including soil moisture, snow, and terrestrial water storage (TWS), into a numerical model of land surface processes. In theory, the output from such a system is superior to estimates based on the observations or the model alone, thereby enhancing our ability to understand, monitor, and predict key elements of the terrestrial water cycle. In practice, however, several conceptual problems can interfere with realizing the potential improvements from data assimilation. Of particular concern is the frequent mismatch between the assimilated observations and the land surface model variables of interest. The seminar will discuss recent research with the ensemble-based NASA GEOS-S LDAS to address various aspects of this mismatch. These aspects include (i) the assimilation of coarse-scale observations into higher-resolution land surface models, (ii) the partitioning of satellite observations (such as TWS retrievals) into their constituent water cycle components, (iii) the forward modeling of microwave brightness temperatures over land for radiance-based land surface data aSSimilation, and (iv) the selection of the most relevant types of observations for the analysis of a specific water cycle variable (such as root zone soil moisture). At its core, the solution to the above challenges involves the careful construction of an observation operator that maps from the land surface model variables of interest to the space of the assimilated observations.

Reichle, Rolf↗

Overshooting in Massive Stars: Conceptual Problems and Suggested Solution

Overshooting in massive stars faces a basic difficulty: what theoretical models offer is not what stellar structure studies need. The former use Delta(sub mu) = 0 and define the OV where the negative convective flux J vanishes while the latter need to know where the concentration flux J(sub C) vanishes. We suggest that J may be dynamically irrelevant and derive the new dynamic equations for J(sub C). A new feature emerges: for large concentration gradients VC, J(sub C) is no longer proportional to VC, as always assumed.

Canuto, V. M.↗

A Three-Dimensional Analytic Model for the Scattering of a Spherical Bush

Advanced climate models require a more realistic description of canopy radiation with reasonable computational efficiency. This paper develops the mathematics of scattering from a spherical object conceptualized to be a spherical bush to provide a building block that helps to address this need of climate models. It is composed of a homogeneous distribution of individual smaller objects that scatter isotropically. In the limit of small optical depth, incident radiation will scatter isotropically as the sum of that scattered by all the individual scatterers, but at large optical depth the radiation leaving the spherical bush in a given direction is reduced by mutual shadowing of the smaller objects. In the single scattering limit, the scattering phase function and so the albedo are obtained by simple but accurate analytic expressions derived from analytic integration and numerical evaluation. Except in the limit of thin canopies, the scattering and hence albedos are qualitatively and quantitatively different than those derived from 1-D modeling.

Dickinson, Robert E.↗

Integrating plant physiology into simulation of fire behavior and effects

Summary Wildfires are a global crisis, but current fire models fail to capture vegetation response to changing climate. With drought and elevated temperature increasing the importance of vegetation dynamics to fire behavior, and the advent of next generation models capable of capturing increasingly complex physical processes, we provide a renewed focus on representation of woody vegetation in fire models. Currently, the most advanced representations of fire behavior and biophysical fire effects are found in distinct classes of fine‐scale models and do not capture variation in live fuel (i.e. living plant) properties. We demonstrate that plant water and carbon dynamics, which influence combustion and heat transfer into the plant and often dictate plant survival, provide the mechanistic linkage between fire behavior and effects. Our conceptual framework linking remotely sensed estimates of plant water and carbon to fine‐scale models of fire behavior and effects could be a critical first step toward improving the fidelity of the coarse scale models that are now relied upon for global fire forecasting. This process‐based approach will be essential to capturing the influence of physiological responses to drought and warming on live fuel conditions, strengthening the science needed to guide fire managers in an uncertain future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Federated Learning and Differential Privacy: What might AI-Enhanced co-design of microelectronics learn?

Data is a valuable commodity, and it is often dispersed over multiple entities. Sharing data or models created from the data is not simple due to concerns regarding security, privacy, ownership, and model inversion. This limitation in sharing can hinder model training and development. Federated learning can enable data or model sharing across multiple entities that control local data without having to share or exchange the data themselves. Differential privacy is a conceptual framework that brings strong mathematical guarantee for privacy protection and helps provide a quantifiable privacy guarantee to any data or models shared. The concepts of federated learning and differential privacy are introduced along with possible connections. Lastly, some open discussion topics on how federated learning and differential privacy can tied to AI-Enhanced co-design of microelectronics are highlighted.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Mean Line Pump Flow Model in Rocket Engine System Simulation

A mean line pump flow modeling method has been developed to provide a fast capability for modeling turbopumps of rocket engines. Based on this method, a mean line pump flow code PUMPA has been written that can predict the performance of pumps at off-design operating conditions, given the loss of the diffusion system at the design point. The pump code can model axial flow inducers, mixed-flow and centrifugal pumps. The code can model multistage pumps in series. The code features rapid input setup and computer run time, and is an effective analysis and conceptual design tool. The map generation capability of the code provides the map information needed for interfacing with a rocket engine system modeling code. The off-design and multistage modeling capabilities of the code permit parametric design space exploration of candidate pump configurations and provide pump performance data for engine system evaluation. The PUMPA code has been integrated with the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS) code and an expander rocket engine system has been simulated. The mean line pump flow code runs as an integral part of the NPSS rocket engine system simulation and provides key pump performance information directly to the system model at all operating conditions.

Veres, Joseph P.↗

The Impact of Devegetated Dune Fields on North American Climate During the Late Medieval Climate Anomaly

During the Medieval Climate Anomaly, North America experienced severe droughts and widespread mobilization of dune fields that persisted for decades. We use an atmosphere general circulation model, forced by a tropical Pacific sea surface temperature reconstruction and changes in the land surface consistent with estimates of dune mobilization (conceptualized as partial devegetation), to investigate whether the devegetation could have exacerbated the medieval droughts. Presence of devegetated dunes in the model significantly increases surface temperatures, but has little impact on precipitation or drought severity, as defined by either the Palmer Drought Severity Index or the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration. Results are similar to recent studies of the 1930s Dust Bowl drought, suggesting bare soil associated with the dunes, in and of itself, is not sufficient to amplify droughts over North America.

Cook, B. I.↗

Propulsion simulator for magnetically suspended wind tunnel models

Simulation of propulsion induced aerodynamic forces and moments, which arise as a result of interactions between propulsive jets and the free stream, is one of the most desired capabilities in magnetic suspension wind tunnels. The feasibility of generating exhaust jets of appropriate characteristics onboard magnetically suspended models was examined. Four concepts of remotely operated propulsion simulators was considered. Three conceptual designs involving conventional technologies such as compressed gas cylinders, liquid monopropellants, and solid propellants were developed. The fourth concept, a laser assisted thruster, which can potentially simulate both inlet and exhaust flows, was found to require very high power levels. The measurement of aerodynamic forces and/or moments were demonstrated, including the effects of exhaust jets, in MSBS wind tunnels. Two propulsion simulator models were developed, a small scale and a large scale unit, both using compressed, liquified CO2 as propellant. Results of the wind tunnel tests with the small scale simulator are discussed.

Joshi, P. B.↗

Understanding land surface evapotranspiration with satellite multispectral measurements

Quantitative use of remote multispectral measurements to study and map land surface evapotranspiration has been a challenging issue for the past 20 years. Past work is reviewed against process physics. A simple two-layer combination-type model is used which is applicable to both vegetation and bare soil. The theoretic analysis is done to show which land surface properties are implicitly defined by such evaporation models and to assess whether they are measurable as a matter of principle. Conceptual implications of the spatial correlation of land surface properties, as observed by means of remote multispectral measurements, are illustrated with results of work done in arid zones. A normalization of spatial variability of land surface evaporation is proposed by defining a location-dependent potential evaporation and surface temperature range. Examples of the application of remote based estimates of evaporation to hydrological modeling studies in Egypt and Argentina are presented.

Menenti, M.↗

Molten Salt Reactor Signatures and Modeling Study

Molten salt reactor (MSR) technologies, either liquid fueled and cooled or only liquid cooled, pose specific, unique challenges for safeguards of the special nuclear material during the operation, fueling, and maintenance of the reactor. MSRs are one type of Generation IV technologies being invested in and considered for U.S. domestic fabrication primarily for electricity and process heat production. These designs have generated growing commercial interest for several reasons, including high (≈40%) thermal efficiency, ease of fueling, improved use of uranium fuel, potential utilization of thorium fuel, and proposed inherent safety features. U.S. companies have several planned designs that differ in fuel, cooling, and neutron energy spectrum. Driven by commercial interest and the intent of licensing MSRs, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has developed a vision and strategy to accommodate non-light water reactors (LWR), which include MSRs (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission 2019). In addition, the Department of Energy (DOE) through the Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) Office of Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART), …sponsors research, development and deployment (RD&D) activities through its Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP), Advanced Reactor Concepts (ARC), and Advanced Small Modular Reactor (aSMR) programs to promote safety, technical, economical, and environmental advancements of innovative Generation IV nuclear energy technologies. Reactor types considering the use of salts, liquid metals, or gases for coolant fall under both ARC and aSMR. Therefore, Research Design & Development is being pursued by DOE-NE through national laboratories, universities, and international and industrial collaborations. Additionally, the U.S. is a member of the Gen IV International Forum (GIF). The GIF is a cooperative, multinational organization to guide and carry out research and development needed for the GEN IV reactor systems (Forum 2018). GIF evaluated numerous reactor concepts and down-selected to the six most feasible advanced reactor technologies: gas-cooled fast reactor (GFR), lead-cooled fast reactor (LFR), MSR, supercritical watercooled reactor (SCWR), sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR), and very high temperature reactor (VHTR). In support of the growing interest domestically and internationally, the Materials Protection, Accounting, and Control Technologies (MPACT) campaign, under the DOE-NE Fuel Cycle Technologies (FCT) program, engages in R&D activities by developing advanced instrumentation and analysis for safeguards and security of modern, advanced nuclear fuel cycle (non-LWR) facilities. Because of the historic experience in the operation of the Aircraft Reactor Experiment (ARE) and the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) (Robertson, MSRE Design and Operations Report Part I 1965), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is heavily engaged in the various R&D activities through the DOE complex related to MSRs including national technical leadership of the DOE-NE MSR campaign. This report discusses and presents the outcomes of the FY19 MPACT MSR Safeguards task. The challenges presented by MSRs for nuclear material accountancy and control (NMAC) and associated safeguards will be investigated. The objective of this research is to explore and compile the safeguards requirements and identify measurement signatures through an initial high-level MSR design and develop complementary advanced simulation and modeling capabilities. A high-level ORNL-developed MSR design called the Molten Salt Demonstration Reactor (MSDR) (Bettis, Alexander and Watts 1972) was used as the target reactor design for this research. The MSDR model incorporates technology from the MSRE and the Molten Salt Breeder Reactor (Robertson, Conceptual Design of a Single-Fluid Molten-Salt Breeder Reactor 1971). But the MSDR is a 750 MWth graphite moderated liquid fueled (low-enriched uranium) MSR compared to the MSRE’s of 7.5 MWth. The focus of this report is to discuss the evaluation of novel signatures, correlations, and indicators to understand the applicability of current safeguards instrumentation to MSRs using the modeling results from the MSDR.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DFT modelling of explicit solid–solid interfaces in batteries: methods and challenges

Density Functional Theory (DFT) calculations of electrode material properties in high energy density storage devices like lithium batteries have been standard practice for decades. By contrast, DFT modelling of explicit interfaces in batteries arguably lacks universally adopted methodology and needs further conceptual development. In this paper, we focus on solid–solid interfaces, which are ubiquitous not just in all-solid state batteries; liquid-electrolyte-based batteries often rely on thin, solid passivating films on electrode surfaces to function. We use metal anode calculations to illustrate that explicit interface models are critical for elucidating contact potentials, electric fields at interfaces, and kinetic stability with respect to parasitic reactions. The examples emphasize three key challenges: (1) the “dirty” nature of most battery electrode surfaces; (2) voltage calibration and control; and (3) the fact that interfacial structures are governed by kinetics, not thermodynamics. To meet these challenges, developing new computational techniques and importing insights from other electrochemical disciplines will be beneficial.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

The structure of red-infrared scattergrams of semivegetated landscapes

A physically based linear stochastic geometric canopy soil reflectance model is presented for characterizing spatial variability of semivegetated landscapes at subpixel and regional scales. Landscapes are conceptualized as stochastic geometric surfaces, incorporating not only the variability in geometric elements, but also the variability in vegetation and soil background reflectance which can be important in some scenes. The model is used to investigate several possible mechanisms which contribute to the often observed characteristic triangular shape of red-infrared scattergrams of semivegetated landscapes. Scattergrams of simulated and semivegetated scenes are analyzed with respect to the scales of the satellite pixel and subpixel components. Analysis of actual aerial radiometric data of a pecan orchard is presented in comparison with ground observations as preliminary confirmation of the theoretical results.

Jasinski, Michael F.↗