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Exploring Alternative Parameterizations for Snowfall with Validation from Satellite and Terrestrial Radars

Increases in computational resources have allowed operational forecast centers to pursue experimental, high resolution simulations that resolve the microphysical characteristics of clouds and precipitation. These experiments are motivated by a desire to improve the representation of weather and climate, but will also benefit current and future satellite campaigns, which often use forecast model output to guide the retrieval process. The combination of reliable cloud microphysics and radar reflectivity may constrain radiative transfer models used in satellite simulators during future missions, including EarthCARE and the NASA Global Precipitation Measurement. Aircraft, surface and radar data from the Canadian CloudSat/CALIPSO Validation Project are used to check the validity of size distribution and density characteristics for snowfall simulated by the NASA Goddard six-class, single moment bulk water microphysics scheme, currently available within the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model. Widespread snowfall developed across the region on January 22, 2007, forced by the passing of a mid latitude cyclone, and was observed by the dual-polarimetric, C-band radar King City, Ontario, as well as the NASA 94 GHz CloudSat Cloud Profiling Radar. Combined, these data sets provide key metrics for validating model output: estimates of size distribution parameters fit to the inverse-exponential equations prescribed within the model, bulk density and crystal habit characteristics sampled by the aircraft, and representation of size characteristics as inferred by the radar reflectivity at C- and W-band. Specified constants for distribution intercept and density differ significantly from observations throughout much of the cloud depth. Alternate parameterizations are explored, using column-integrated values of vapor excess to avoid problems encountered with temperature-based parameterizations in an environment where inversions and isothermal layers are present. Simulation of CloudSat reflectivity is performed by adopting the discrete-dipole parameterizations and databases provided in literature, and demonstrate an improved capability in simulating radar reflectivity at W-band versus Mie scattering assumptions.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗

Improving the Representation of Snow Crystal Properties with a Single-Moment Mircophysics Scheme

Single-moment microphysics schemes are utilized in an increasing number of applications and are widely available within numerical modeling packages, often executed in near real-time to aid in the issuance of weather forecasts and advisories. In order to simulate cloud microphysical and precipitation processes, a number of assumptions are made within these schemes. Snow crystals are often assumed to be spherical and of uniform density, and their size distribution intercept may be fixed to simplify calculation of the remaining parameters. Recently, the Canadian CloudSat/CALIPSO Validation Project (C3VP) provided aircraft observations of snow crystal size distributions and environmental state variables, sampling widespread snowfall associated with a passing extratropical cyclone on 22 January 2007. Aircraft instrumentation was supplemented by comparable surface estimations and sampling by two radars: the C-band, dual-polarimetric radar in King City, Ontario and the NASA CloudSat 94 GHz Cloud Profiling Radar. As radar systems respond to both hydrometeor mass and size distribution, they provide value when assessing the accuracy of cloud characteristics as simulated by a forecast model. However, simulation of the 94 GHz radar signal requires special attention, as radar backscatter is sensitive to the assumed crystal shape. Observations obtained during the 22 January 2007 event are used to validate assumptions of density and size distribution within the NASA Goddard six-class single-moment microphysics scheme. Two high resolution forecasts are performed on a 9-3-1 km grid, with C3VP-based alternative parameterizations incorporated and examined for improvement. In order to apply the CloudSat 94 GHz radar to model validation, the single scattering characteristics of various crystal types are used and demonstrate that the assumption of Mie spheres is insufficient for representing CloudSat reflectivity derived from winter precipitation. Furthermore, snow density and size distribution characteristics are allowed to vary with height, based upon direct aircraft estimates obtained from C3VP data. These combinations improve the representation of modeled clouds versus their radar-observed counterparts, based on profiles and vertical distributions of reflectivity. These meteorological events are commonplace within the mid-latitude cold season and present a challenge to operational forecasters. This study focuses on one event, likely representative of others during the winter season, and aims to improve the representation of snow for use in future operational forecasts.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗

Web-Based Real-Time Emergency Monitoring

The Web-based Real-Time Asset Monitoring (RAM) module for emergency operations and facility management enables emergency personnel in federal agencies and local and state governments to monitor and analyze data in the event of a natural disaster or other crisis that threatens a large number of people and property. The software can manage many disparate sources of data within a facility, city, or county. It was developed on industry-standard Geo- Spatial software and is compliant with open GIS standards. RAM View can function as a standalone system, or as an integrated plugin module to Emergency Operations Center (EOC) software suites such as REACT (Real-time Emergency Action Coordination Tool), thus ensuring the widest possible distribution among potential users. RAM has the ability to monitor various data sources, including streaming data. Many disparate systems are included in the initial suite of supported hardware systems, such as mobile GPS units, ambient measurements of temperature, moisture and chemical agents, flow meters, air quality, asset location, and meteorological conditions. RAM View displays real-time data streams such as gauge heights from the U.S. Geological Survey gauging stations, flood crests from the National Weather Service, and meteorological data from numerous sources. Data points are clearly visible on the map interface, and attributes as specified in the user requirements can be viewed and queried.

Harvey, Craig A.↗

Handling Emergency Management in [an] Object Oriented Modeling Environment

It has been understood that protection of a nation from extreme disasters is a challenging task. Impacts of extreme disasters on a nation's critical infrastructures, economy and society could be devastating. A protection plan itself would not be sufficient when a disaster strikes. Hence, there is a need for a holistic approach to establish more resilient infrastructures to withstand extreme disasters. A resilient infrastructure can be defined as a system or facility that is able to withstand damage, but if affected, can be readily and cost-effectively restored. The key issue to establish resilient infrastructures is to incorporate existing protection plans with comprehensive preparedness actions to respond, recover and restore as quickly as possible, and to minimize extreme disaster impacts. Although national organizations will respond to a disaster, extreme disasters need to be handled mostly by local emergency management departments. Since emergency management departments have to deal with complex systems, they have to have a manageable plan and efficient organizational structures to coordinate all these systems. A strong organizational structure is the key in responding fast before and during disasters, and recovering quickly after disasters. In this study, the entire emergency management is viewed as an enterprise and modelled through enterprise management approach. Managing an enterprise or a large complex system is a very challenging task. It is critical for an enterprise to respond to challenges in a timely manner with quick decision making. This study addresses the problem of handling emergency management at regional level in an object oriented modelling environment developed by use of TopEase software. Emergency Operation Plan of the City of Hampton, Virginia, has been incorporated into TopEase for analysis. The methodology used in this study has been supported by a case study on critical infrastructure resiliency in Hampton Roads.

Tokgoz, Berna Eren↗

Environmental Stress Testing of the Single Sample Cylinder: A Proven Consensus Standard for Internal Gas Analysis (IGA) or Residual Gas Analysis (RGA)

In August 2008, Schuessler Consulting was contracted by NASA GSFC in support of the NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging (NEPP) program to perform two separate studies on moisture laden air in a stainless steel cylinder that had been designed to become a consensus standard for Test Method 1018. This Test Method was originally released for hybrids under Mil. Std. 883 but was quickly utilized on other microelectronic devices under the auspice of Mil. Std. 750. The cylinder had subsequently been fabricated for the 750 community. It was back-filled with moist air and subsequently analyzed over a period of time under a previous NASA contract. It had been shown that moisture in the 4000 - 5000 ppm range could be analyzed rather precisely with a mass spectrometer, commonly referred to as a Residual Gas Analyzer (RGA). The scope of this study was to ascertain if the composition and precision varied as a function of thermal shock at sub-zero temperatures and whether there was consensus when the standard was submitted to other RGA units. It was demonstrated and published that the consensus standard would yield precise RGA data for moisture within +/- 1% when optimized for a given RGA unit. It has been subsequently shown in this study at Oneida Research Services, that sub-zero storage did not affect that precision when a well-defined protocol for the analysis was followed. The consensus standard was taken to a second facility for analysis where it was found that moisture adsorption on the transfer lines caused precision to drop to +/- 12%. The Single Sample Cylinder (SSC) is a one liter stainless steel cylinder with associated sampling valves and has considerable weight and volume. But this considerable size allows for approximately 300 gas samples of the same composition to be delivered to any RGA unit. Lastly, a smaller cylinder, approximately 75 cc, of a second consensus standard was fabricated and tested with a different mix of fixed gases where moisture was kept in the 100 ppm range. This second standard has the potential of providing 30 gaseous samples and can be readily shipped to any analytical facility that desires to generate comparison RGA data. A series of comparison residual gas analyses was performed at the Honeywell Federal Manufacturing & Technologies facility in the National Nuclear Facility Administration s plant in Kansas City to complete this project. It was shown that improvements in the precision of a given RGA unit can be done by controlling the cycle time for each analysis and increasing analysis temperatures to minimize moisture adsorption. It was also found that a "one time event" in the subzero storage of the large SSC did not effect the units ability to continuously supply precise samples of the same chemistry, however the "event" caused a permanent +8% shift in the reported value of the moisture content. Lastly, a set of SSC RGA results was plotted on a common graph with DSCC "correlation study" RGA data. The result demonstrates the ability of the SSC to remove many of the individual variances that single, individual samples introduce. The consensus standards are now in storage at Oneida Research Services, one of the DSCC certified houses that does RGA to Military Standards, where they await future studies. The analytical data and the operational parameters of the instruments used are provided in the following discussion. Limitations and suggested means for improvement of both precision and accuracy are provided.

Schuessler, Philipp WH↗

Particulate Emissions Hazards Associated with Fueling Heat Engines

All hydrocarbon- (HC-) fueled heat engine exhaust (tailpipe) emissions (<10 to 140 nm) contribute as health hazards, including emissions from transportation vehicles (e.g., aircraft) and other HC-fueled power systems. CO2 emissions are tracked, and when mapped, show outlines of major transportation routes and cities. Particulate pollution affects living tissue and is found to be detrimental to cardiovascular and respiratory systems where ultrafine particulates directly translocate to promote vascular system diseases potentially detectable as organic vapors. This paper discusses aviation emissions, fueling, and certification issues, including heat engine emissions hazards, detection at low levels and tracking of emissions, and alternate energy sources for general aviation.

Hendricks, Robert C.↗

The Utility of the OMI HCHO/NO2 in Air Quality Decision-Making Activities

I will discuss a novel and practical application of the OMI HCHU and NO2 data products to the "weight of evidence" in the air quality decision-making process (e.g., State Implementation Plan (SIP)) for a city, region, or state to demonstrate that it is making progress toward attainment of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone. Any trend, or lack thereof, in the observed OMI HCHO/NO2 may support that an emission control strategy implemented to reduce ozone is or is not occurring for a metropolitan area. In addition, the observed OMI HCHO/NO2 may be used to define new emission control strategies as the photochemical environments of urban areas evolve over time. I will demonstrate the utility of the OMI HCHO/NO2 over the U.S. for air quality applications with support from simulations with both a regional model and a photochemical box model. These results support mission planning of an OMI-like instrument for the proposed GEO-CAPE satellite that has as one of its objectives to study air quality from space. However, I'm attending the meeting as the Aura Deputy Project Scientist, so I don't technically need to present anything to justify the travel.

Duncan, Bryan↗

The Utility of the OMI HCHO and NO2 Data Products in Air Quality Decision- Making Activities

We will present three related air quality applications of the OMI HCHO (formaldehyde) and NO2 (nitrogen dioxide) data products, which we us to support mission planning of an OMI-like instrument for the proposed GEO-CAPE satellite that has as one of its objectives to study air quality from space. First, we will discuss a novel and practical application of the data products to the "weight of evidence" in the air quality decision-making process (e.g., State Implementation Plan (SIP)) for a city, region, or state to demonstrate that it is making progress toward attainment of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone. Any trend, or lack thereof, in the observed OMI HCHO/NO2, which we use as an air quality indicator, may support that an emission control strategy implemented to reduce ozone is or is not occurring for a metropolitan area. Second, we will discuss how we use variations in the OMI HCHO product as a proxy for variability in the biogenic hydrocarbon, isoprene, which is an important player for the formation of high levels of ozone and the dominant source of HCHO in the eastern U.S. Third, we will discuss the variability of NO2 in the U.S. as indicated by the OMI NO2 product. In addition, we will show the impact of the 2005 hurricanes on pollutant emissions, including those associated with the intensive oil extraction and refining activities, in the Gulf of Mexico region using the OMI NO2 product. The variability of HCHO and NO2 as indicated by OMI helps us to understand changes in the OMI HCHO/NO2 and the implications for ozone formation.

Duncan, Bryan N.↗

Decompression Sickness After Air Break in Prebreathe Described with a Survival Model

Data from Brooks City-Base show the decompression sickness (DCS) and venous gas emboli (VGE) consequences of air breaks in a resting 100% O2 prebreathe (PB) prior to a hypobaric exposure. METHODS: DCS and VGE survival times from 95 controls for a 60 min PB prior to 2-hr or 4-hr exposures to 4.37 psia are statistically compared to 3 break in PB conditions: a 10 min (n=40), 20 min (n=40), or 60 min break (n=32) 30 min into the PB followed by 30 min of PB. Ascent rate was 1,524 meters / min and all exposures included light exercise and 4 min of VGE monitoring of heart chambers at 16 min intervals. DCS survival time for combined control and air breaks were described with an accelerated log logistic model where exponential N2 washin during air break was described with a 10 min half-time and washout during PB with a 60 min half-time. RESULTS: There was no difference in VGE or DCS survival times among 3 different air breaks, or when air breaks were compared to control VGE times. However, 10, 20, and 60 min air breaks had significantly earlier survival times compared to control DCS times, certainly early in the exposures. CONCLUSION: Air breaks of 10, 20, and 60 min after 30 min of a 60 min PB reduced DCS survival time. The survival model combined discrete comparisons into a global description mechanistically linked to asymmetrical N2 washin and washout kinetics based on inspired pN2. Our unvalidated regression is used to compute additional PB time needed to compensate for an air break in PB within the range of tested conditions.

Conkin, J.↗

Quantification of Juniperus Ashei Pollen Production for the Development of Forecasting Models

Juniperus ashei pollen is considered one of the most allergenic species of Cupressaceae in North America. Juniperus ashei is distributed throughout central Texas, Northern Mexico, the Arbuckle Mountains of south central Oklahoma, and the Ozark Mountains of northern Arkansas and southwestern Missouri. The large amount of airborne pollen that J. ashei produces affects inhabitants of cities and towns adjacent to juniper woodland areas and because juniper pollen can be transported over long distances, it affects populations that are far away. In order to create a dynamic forecast system for allergy and asthma sufferers, pollen production must be estimated. Estimation of pollen production requires the estimation of male cone production. Two locations in the Arbuckle Mountains of Oklahoma and 4 locations in the Edwards Plateau region of Texas were chosen as sampling sites. Trees were measured to determine approximate size. Male to female ratio was determined and pollen cone production was estimated using a qualitative scale from 0 to 2. Cones were counted from harvested 1/8 sections of representative trees. The representative trees were measured and approximate surface area of the tree was calculated. Using the representative tree data, the number of cones per square meter was calculated for medium production (1) and high production (2) trees. These numbers were extrapolated to calculate cone production in other trees sampled. Calibration was achieved within each location's sub-plot by counting cones on 5 branches collected from 5 sides of both high production and medium production trees. The total area sampled in each location was 0.06 hectare and total cone production varied greatly from location to location. The highest production area produced 5.8 million cones while the lowest production area produced 72,000 cones. A single representative high production tree in the Arbuckle Mountains produced 1.38 million cones. The number of trees per location was relatively uniform, but the number of high cone production trees varied greatly. Although there is great diversity in the locations making it difficult to determine which factors are most important, cone production was well correlated with certain stand characteristics including trunk diameter.

Bunderson, L. D.↗

Human Lunar Destiny: Past, Present, and Future

This paper offers conceptual strategy and rationale for returning astronauts to the moon. NASA's historic Apollo program enabled humans to make the first expeditionary voyages to the moon and to gather and return samples back to the earth for further study. To continue exploration of the moon within the next ten to fifteen years, one possible mission concept for returning astronauts using existing launch vehicle infrastructure is presented. During these early lunar missions, expeditionary trips are made to geographical destinations and permanent outposts are established at the lunar south pole. As these missions continue, mining operations begin in an effort to learn how to live off the land. Over time, a burgeoning economy based on mining and scientific activity emerges with the formation of more accommodating settlements and surface infrastructure assets. As lunar activity advances, surface infrastructure assets grow and become more complex, lunar settlements and outposts are established across the globe, travel to and from the moon becomes common place, and commerce between earth and the moon develops and flourishes. Colonization and development of the moon is completed with the construction of underground cities and the establishment of a full range of political, religious, educational, and recreational institutions with a diverse population from all nations of the world. Finally, rationale for diversifying concentrations of humanity throughout earth's neighborhood and the greater solar system is presented.

Fletcher, David↗

The Sao Paulo Lightning Mapping Array (SPLMA): Prospects to GOES-R GLM and CHUVA

This paper presents the characteristics and prospects of a Lightning Mapping Array to be deployed at the city of S o Paulo (SPLMA). This LMA network will provide CHUVA campaign with total lightning, lightning channel mapping and detailed information on the locations of cloud charge regions for the thunderstorms investigated during one of its IOP. The real-time availability of LMA observations will also contribute to and support improved weather situational awareness and mission execution. For GOES-R program it will form the basis of generating unique and valuable proxy data sets for both GLM and ABI sensors in support of several on-going research investigations

Albrecht, Rachel I.↗

Advection of Microphysical Scalars in Terminal Area Simulation System (TASS)

The Terminal Area Simulation System (TASS) is a large eddy scale atmospheric flow model with extensive turbulence and microphysics packages. It has been applied successfully in the past to a diverse set of problems ranging from prediction of severe convective events (Proctor et al. 2002), tracking storms and for simulating weapons effects such as the dispersion and fallout of fission debris (Bacon and Sarma 1991), etc. More recently, TASS has been used for predicting the transport and decay of wake vortices behind aircraft (Proctor 2009). An essential part of the TASS model is its comprehensive microphysics package, which relies on the accurate computation of microphysical scalar transport. This paper describes an evaluation of the Leonard scheme implemented in the TASS model for transporting microphysical scalars. The scheme is validated against benchmark cases with exact solutions and compared with two other schemes - a Monotone Upstream-centered Scheme for Conservation Laws (MUSCL)-type scheme after van Leer and LeVeque's high-resolution wave propagation method. Finally, a comparison between the schemes is made against an incident of severe tornadic super-cell convection near Del City, Oklahoma.

Ahmad, Nashat N.↗

Use of MODIS Terra Imagery to Estimate Surface Water Quality Standards, Using Lake Thonotosassa, Florida, as a Case Study

Lake Thonotosassa is a highly eutrophied lake located in an area with rapidly growing population in the Tampa Bay watershed, Florida. The Florida Administrative Code has designated its use for "recreation, propagation and maintenance of a healthy, well-balanced population of fish and wildlife." Although this lake has been the subject of efforts to improve water quality since 1970, overall water quality has remained below the acceptable state standards, and has a high concentration of nutrients. This condition is of great concern to public health since it has favored episodic blooms of Cyanobacteria. Some Cyanobacterial species release toxins that can reach humans through drinking water, fish consumption, and direct contact with contaminated water. The lake has been historically popular for fishing and water sports, and its overflow water drains into the Hillsborough River, the main supply of municipal water for the City of Tampa, this explains why it has being constantly monitored in situ for water quality by the Environmental Protection Commission of Hillsborough County (EPC). Advances in remote sensing technology, however, open the possibility of facilitating similar types of monitoring in this and similar lakes, further contributing to the implementation of surveillance systems that would benefit not just public health, but also tourism and ecosystems. Although traditional application of this technology to water quality has been focused on much larger coastal water bodies like bays and estuaries, this study evaluates the feasibility of its application on a 46.6 km2 freshwater lake. Using surface reflectance products from Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra, this study evaluates associations between remotely sensed data and in situ data from the EPC. The parameters analyzed are the surface water quality standards used by the State of Florida and general indicators of trophic status.

Moreno, Max J.↗

Mission X: Train Like an Astronaut Pilot Study

Mission X: Train Like an Astronaut is an international educational challenge focusing on fitness and nutrition as we encourage students to "train like an astronaut." Teams of students (aged 8-12) learn principles of healthy eating and exercise, compete for points by finishing training modules, and get excited about their future as "fit explorers." The 18 core exercises (targeting strength, endurance, coordination, balance, spatial awareness, and more) involve the same types of skills that astronauts learn in their training and use in spaceflight. This first-of-its-kind cooperative outreach program has allowed 14 space agencies and various partner institutions to work together to address quality health/fitness education, challenge students to be more physically active, increase awareness of the importance of lifelong health and fitness, teach students how fitness plays a vital role in human performance for exploration, and inspire and motivate students to pursue careers in STEM fields. The project was initiated in 2009 in response to a request by the International Space Life Sciences Working Group. USA, Netherlands, Italy, France, Germany, Austria, Colombia, Spain, and United Kingdom hosted teams for the pilot this past spring, and Japan held a modified version of the challenge. Several more agencies provided input into the preparations. Competing on 131 teams, more than 3700 students from 40 cities worldwide participated in the first round of Mission X. OUTCOMES AND BEST PRACTICES Members of the Mission X core team will highlight the outcomes of this international educational outreach pilot project, show video highlights of the challenge, provide the working group s initial assessment of the project and discuss the future potential of the effort. The team will also discuss ideas and best practices for international partnership in education outreach efforts from various agency perspectives and experiences

Lloyd, Charles W.↗

Satellite Monitoring of Asian Dust Storms from SeaWiFS and MODIS: Source, Pathway, and Interannual Variability

Among the many components that contribute to air pollution, airborne mineral dust plays an important role due to its biogeochernical impact on the ecosystem and its radiative-forcing effect on the climate system. In East Asia, dust storms frequently accompany the cold and dry air masses that occur as part of springtime cold front systems. China's capital, Beijing, and other large cities are on the primary pathway of these dust storm plumes, and their passage over such population centers causes flight delays, pushes grit through windows and doors, and forces people indoors. Furthermore, during the spring these anthropogenic and natural air pollutants, once generated over the source regions, can be transported out of the boundary layer into the free troposphere and can travel thousands of kilometers across the Pacific into the United States and beyond. In this paper, we will demonstrate the capability of a new satellite algorithm to retrieve aerosol optical thickness and single scattering albedo over bright reflecting surfaces such as urban areas and deserts. Such retrievals have been difficult to perform using previously available algorithms that use wavelengths from the mid-visible to the near IR because they have trouble separating the aerosol signal from the contribution due to the bright surface reflectance. The new algorithm, called Deep Blue, utilizes blue-wavelength measurements from instruments such as SeaWiFS and MODIS to infer the properties of aerosols, since the surface reflectance over land in the blue part of the spectrum is much lower than for longer wavelength channels. We have validated the satellite retrieved aerosol optical thickness with data from AERONET sunphotometers over desert and semi-desert regions. The comparisons show reasonable agreements between these two. These new satellite products will allow scientists to determine quantitatively the aerosol properties near sources using high spatial resolution measurements from SeaWiFS and MODIS-like instruments. The multiyear satellite measurements since 1998 from SeaWiFS will be utilized to investigate the interannual variability of source, pathway, and dust loading associated with these dust outbreaks in East Asia. The monthly averaged aerosol optical thickness during the springtime from SeaWiFS will also be compared with the MODIS Deep Blue products.

Hsu, N. Christina↗

Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

This slide presentation reviews some of the effects that global change has on urban areas in the United States and how the growth of urban areas will affect the environment. It presents the elements of our Synthesis and Assessment Report (SAP) report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We will also present some recommendations about what should be done to further research on how climate change and variability will impact human settlements in the U.S., as well as how to engage government officials, policy and decision makers, and the general public in understanding the implications of climate change and variability on the local and regional levels. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e.g. public health, urban planning for mitigation strategies) on how cities can cope and adapt to climate change and variability. This latter point parallels the concepts and ideas presented in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Decadal Survey report on "Earth Science Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond" wherein the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability, human health, and land use change are listed as key areas for development of future Earth observing remote sensing systems.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗