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NASA NTRS2010

Future Integrated Systems Concept for Preventing Aircraft Loss-of-Control Accidents

Belcastro, Christine M.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Validation and Verification of Future Integrated Safety-Critical Systems Operating under Off-Nominal Conditions

Loss of control remains one of the largest contributors to aircraft fatal accidents worldwide. Aircraft loss-of-control accidents are highly complex in that they can result from numerous causal and contributing factors acting alone or (more often) in combination. Hence, there is no single intervention strategy to prevent these accidents and reducing them will require a holistic integrated intervention capability. Future onboard integrated system technologies developed for preventing loss of vehicle control accidents must be able to assure safe operation under the associated off-nominal conditions. The transition of these technologies into the commercial fleet will require their extensive validation and verification (V and V) and ultimate certification. The V and V of complex integrated systems poses major nontrivial technical challenges particularly for safety-critical operation under highly off-nominal conditions associated with aircraft loss-of-control events. This paper summarizes the V and V problem and presents a proposed process that could be applied to complex integrated safety-critical systems developed for preventing aircraft loss-of-control accidents. A summary of recent research accomplishments in this effort is also provided.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Multiple Kernel Learning for Heterogeneous Anomaly Detection: Algorithm and Aviation Safety Case Study

The world-wide aviation system is one of the most complex dynamical systems ever developed and is generating data at an extremely rapid rate. Most modern commercial aircraft record several hundred flight parameters including information from the guidance, navigation, and control systems, the avionics and propulsion systems, and the pilot inputs into the aircraft. These parameters may be continuous measurements or binary or categorical measurements recorded in one second intervals for the duration of the flight. Currently, most approaches to aviation safety are reactive, meaning that they are designed to react to an aviation safety incident or accident. In this paper, we discuss a novel approach based on the theory of multiple kernel learning to detect potential safety anomalies in very large data bases of discrete and continuous data from world-wide operations of commercial fleets. We pose a general anomaly detection problem which includes both discrete and continuous data streams, where we assume that the discrete streams have a causal influence on the continuous streams. We also assume that atypical sequence of events in the discrete streams can lead to off-nominal system performance. We discuss the application domain, novel algorithms, and also discuss results on real-world data sets. Our algorithm uncovers operationally significant events in high dimensional data streams in the aviation industry which are not detectable using state of the art methods

Das, Santanu↗

NASA NTRS2009

Temperature Dependence of Factors Controlling Isoprene Emissions

We investigated the relationship of variability in the formaldehyde (HCHO) columns measured by the Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) to isoprene emissions in the southeastern United States for 2005-2007. The data show that the inferred, regional-average isoprene emissions varied by about 22% during summer and are well correlated with temperature, which is known to influence emissions. Part of the correlation with temperature is likely associated with other causal factors that are temperature-dependent. We show that the variations in HCHO are convolved with the temperature dependence of surface ozone, which influences isoprene emissions, and the dependence of the HCHO column to mixed layer height as OMI's sensitivity to HCHO increases with altitude. Furthermore, we show that while there is an association of drought with the variation in HCHO, drought in the southeastern U.S. is convolved with temperature.

Duncan, Bryan N.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Acute and Chronic Exposure to CO2 in Space Flight

Spacecraft and space stations, similar to other habitable confined spaces such as submarines, need to provide a breathable atmosphere for their inhabitants. The inevitable production of CO2 during respiration necessitates life support systems that "scrub" the atmosphere and lower CO2 levels. Due to operational limitations associated with space flight (limited mass, volume, power, and consumables) CO2 is not scrubbed down to its terrestrial equivalent of 0.03% CO2 (ppCO2 of 0.23 mmHg), but is kept below 0.7% (ppCO2 of 5.3 mmHg), a level established in NASA s 180-day mission Spacecraft Maximum Allowable Concentration (SMAC) to be safe and unlikely to cause symptoms. Reports of space flight crewmembers becoming symptomatic with headaches, fatigue, and malaise at levels below those known to cause such symptoms terrestrially has prompted studies measuring the levels of CO2 on both the space shuttle and the space station. Data from cabin atmosphere sampling were collected on space shuttle missions STS-113, STS-122, STS-123, and International Space Station Expeditions 12-15 and 17, and the measured CO2 levels were then correlated to symptoms reported by the crew. The results indicate that a correlation exists between CO2 levels and symptomatology, however causality cannot be established at this time. While the short-term effects of elevated CO2 exposure are well known terrestrially, less is known regarding potential long-term effects of prolonged exposure to a CO2-rich environment or how the physiological changes caused by microgravity may interact with such exposures. Other challenges include limitations in the CO2 monitors used, lack of convection in the microgravity environment, and formation of localized CO2 pockets. As it is unclear if the unique environment of space increases sensitivity to CO2 or if other confounding factors are present, further research is planned to elucidate these points. At the same time, efforts are underway to update the SMAC to a lower level

Alexander, D.↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Relationship of Magnetotail Flow Bursts and Ground Onset Signatures

It has been known for decades that auroral substorm onset occurs on (or at least near) the most equatorward auroral arc, which is thought to map to the near geosynchronous region. The lack of auroral signatures poleward of this arc prior to onset has been a major criticism of flow-burst driven models of substorm onset. The combined THEMIS 5 spacecraft in-situ and ground array measurements provide an unprecedented opportunity to examine the causal relationship between midtail plasma flows, aurora, and ground magnetic signatures. I first present an event from 2008 using multi-spectral all sky imager data from Gillam and in-situ data from THEMIS. The multispectral data indicate an equatorward moving auroral form prior to substorm onset. When this forms reaches the most equatorward arc, the arc brightens and an auroral substorm begins. The THEMIS data show fast Earthward flows prior to onset as well. I discuss further the association of flow bursts and Pi2 pulsations, in the con text of the directly-driven Pi2 model. This model directly links flows and Pi2 pulsations, providing an important constraint on substorm onset theories.

Kepko, Larry↗

NASA NTRS2011

Linking Space-Borne and Ground-Based Observations Observed Around Substorm Onset to Magnetospheric Processes

The combined THEMIS five spacecraft in-situ and ground magnetic and camera arrays have advanced considerably our understanding of the causal relationship between midtail plasma flows, transient ionospheric features, and ground magnetic signatures. In particular, recent work has shown a connection between equatorward moving visible ionospheric transients and substorm onset, in both 6300 nm and white-light emissions. Although both observations detail pre-onset auroral features the interpretations differ substantially. We first provide a brief summary of these observations, highlighting in particular areas where the two observations differ, and suggest reasons for the differences. We then detail how these observations relate to dynamical magnetospheric processes, and show how they constrain models of transient convection. Next, we pull together observations and models of Pi2 generation, substorm current wedge (SCW) initiation and dipolarization to present a self-consistent description of the dynamical processes and communicative pathways that occur just prior to and during substorm expansion onset. Finally, we present a summary of open questions and suggest a roadmap for future work.

Kepko, Larry↗

NASA NTRS2010

Space Borne and Ground-Based Observations of Transient Processes Occurring Around Substorm Onset

The combined THEMIS five spacecraft in-situ and ground magnetic and visible camera arrays have advanced considerably our understanding of the causal relationship between midtail plasma flows, transient ionospheric features, and ground magnetic signatures. In particular recent work has shown a connection between equatorward moving visible ionospheric transients and substorm onset, in both white-light and 6300 nm emissions. These observations, together with THEMIS in-situ measurements of bulk flows, provides strict constraints on the sequence of events leading to substorm auroral onset.We first provide a brief summary of these observations, highlighting in particular areas where the two observations differ, and suggest reasons for the differences. Next, by combining the observed correlation of flow and Pi2 waveform with a unified model of global Pi2 generation and substorm current wedge initiation we present a self-consistent description of the dynamical processes and communicative pathways that occur just prior to and during substorm expansion onset.

Kepko, L.↗

NASA NTRS2011

A Monitoring System for Crimean Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Epidemiology Studies in Afghanistan

In the last few years, tick-borne diseases have been reported as a resurging in the Middle East. Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is endemic in the Middle East, including Turkey, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Recent studies have explored the causal link between environmental and disease incidence patterns by correlating remote sensing indicators (surface temperature, rainfall, and vegetation indices of plant photosynthetic activity) with spatially explicit epidemiological data. We combined the monitoring of environmental data at monthly temporal resolutions with available reports of confirmed CCHF cases to identify the environmental properties of endemic regions and quantify those properties to CCHF risk. We also conducted a sero-prevalence survey in a sample of households (human and animal specimens) in 9 villages in Engil district surrounding Herat province, in western Afghanistan. We present analysis results from our study villages and validate the associated environmental conditions as predictive for human disease occurrences. Risk prediction is critical for anticipating the type and potential impact of disease threats for timely response action.

Mustafa, M.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Cruise-Efficient Short Takeoff and Landing (CESTOL): Potential Impact on Air Traffic Operations

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is investigating technological and operational concepts for introducing Cruise-Efficient Short Takeoff and Landing (CESTOL) aircraft into a future US National Airspace System (NAS) civil aviation environment. CESTOL is an aircraft design concept for future use to increase capacity and reduce emissions. CESTOL provides very flexible takeoff, climb, descent and landing performance capabilities and a high-speed cruise capability. In support of NASA, this study is a preliminary examination of the potential operational impact of CESTOL on airport and airspace capacity and delay. The study examines operational impacts at a subject site, Newark Liberty Intemational Airport (KEWR), New Jersey. The study extends these KEWR results to estimate potential impacts on NAS-wide network traffic operations due to the introduction of CESTOL at selected major airports. These are the 34 domestic airports identified in the Federal Aviation Administration's Operational Evolution Plan (OEP). The analysis process uses two fast-time simulation tools to separately model local and NAS-wide air traffic operations using predicted flight schedules for a 24-hour study period in 2016. These tools are the Sen sis AvTerminal model and NASA's Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES). We use both to simulate conventional-aircraft-only and CESTOL-mixed-with-conventional-aircraft operations. Both tools apply 4-dimension trajectory modeling to simulate individual flight movement. The study applies AvTerminal to model traffic operations and procedures for en route and terminal arrival and departures to and from KEWR. These AvTerminal applications model existing arrival and departure routes and profiles and runway use configurations, with the assumption jet-powered, large-sized civil CESTOL aircraft use a short runway and standard turboprop arrival and departure procedures. With these rules, the conventional jet and CESTOL aircraft are procedurally separated from each other geographically and in altitude during tenninal airspace approach and departure operations, and each use a different arrival runway. AvTeminal implements its unique Focal-point Scheduling Process to sequence, space and delay aircraft to resolve spacing and overtake conflicts among flights in the airspace and airport system serving KEWR. This Process effectively models integrated arrival and departure operations. AvTerminal assesses acceptance rates and delay magnitude and causality at selected locations, including en route outer boundary fixes, tenninal airspace arrival and departure boundary fixes, terminal airspace arrival merge and departure diverge fixes, and runway landing and takeoff runways. The analysis compares the resulting capacity impacts, flight delays and delay sources between CESTOL and conventional KEWR operations. AvTerminal quantitative results showed that CESTOL has significant capability to increase airport arrival acceptance rates (35-40% at KEWR) by taking advantage of otherwise underused airspace and runways where available. The study extrapolates the AvTerminal-derived KEWR peak arrival and departure acceptance rates to estimate capacity parameter values for each of the OEP airports in the ACES modeling of traffic through the entire NAS network. The extrapolations of acceptance rates allow full, partial or no achievement of CESTOL capacity gains at an OEP airport as determined by assessments of the degree to which local procedures allow leveraging of CESTOL capabilities. These assessments consider each OEP airport's runway geometries, runway system configurations, airport and airspace operations, and potential CESTOL traffic loadings. The ACES modeling, simulates airport and airspace spacing constraints imposed by airport runway system, terminal and en route air traffic control and traffic flow management operations using airport acceptance rates representing conventional-aircraft-only and CESTOL-mixed operations. CEOL aircraft are assumed to have Mach 0.8, and alternatively Mach 0.7, cruise speeds to examine compatibility with conventional aircraft operations in common airspace. The ACES results provides estimates of CESTOL delay impact NAS-wide and at OEP airports due to changes in OEP airport acceptance rates and changes in en route airspace potential conflict rates. Preliminary results show meaningful nationwide delay reductions (20%) due to CESTOL operations at 34 major domestic airports.

Couluris, G. J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

THEMIS Observations of Directly-Driven Pi2 Pulsations

The THEMIS tail seasons have provided an unprecedented opportunity to examine the causal relationship between midtail plasma flows and low latitude Pi2 pulsations. We present several events where multiple THEMIS spacecraft observed magnetotail flow bursts which were followed up to several minutes later by ground Pi2 pulsations. We find good agreement with the waveforms of the flow bursts and flank Pi2, in agreement with the hypothesis that Pi2 at low-latitude on the flank are directly-driven by periodic variations in the flow bursts. For at least I event we are able to follow the Pi2 impulses from the periodic flow bursts on the nightside. to ground Pi2 at the flanks, and finally through the dayside magnetosphere as observed by GOES. We further place the physical mechanism generating these Pi2 into the context of sub storm onset. We conclude by discussing the sequence and coupling of events that are necessary to explain the correlation, and the constraints this places on models of transient magnetospheric transport.

Kepko, L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Flow, Aurora and PI2 Associations Observed by Themis

It has been known for decades that auroral substorm onset occurs on (or at least near) the most equatorward auroral arc, which is thought to map to the near geosynchronous region. The lack of auroral signatures poleward of this arc prior to onset has been a major criticism of flow-burst driven models of sub storm onset. The combined THEMIS 5 spacecraft in-situ and ground array measurements provide an unprecedented opportunity to examine the causal relationship between midtail plasma flows, aurora, and ground magnetic signatures. I first present an event from 2008 using multi-spectral all sky imager data from Gillam and in-situ data from THEMIS. The multispectral data indicate an equatorward moving auroral form prior to sub storm onset. When this forms reaches the most equatorward arc, the arc brightens and an auroral substorm begins. The THEMIS data show fast Earthward flows prior to onset as well. I suggest that the results strongly support flow-burst driven models of magnetospheric activity. I discuss further the association of flow bursts and Pi2 pulsations, and discuss the possibility of using Pi2 waveforms to infer midtail reconnection dynamics

Kepko, E. I.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Observation of Relativistic Electron Microbursts in Conjunction with Intense Radiation Belt Whistler-Mode Waves

We present multi-satellite observations of large amplitude radiation belt whistler-mode waves and relativistic electron precipitation. On separate occasions during the Wind petal orbits and STEREO phasing orbits, Wind and STEREO recorded intense whistler-mode waves in the outer nightside equatorial radiation belt with peak-to-peak amplitudes exceeding 300 mV/m. During these intervals of intense wave activity, SAMPEX recorded relativistic electron microbursts in near magnetic conjunction with Wind and STEREO. This evidence of microburst precipitation occurring at the same time and at nearly the same magnetic local time and L-shell with a bursty temporal structure similar to that of the observed large amplitude wave packets suggests a causal connection between the two phenomena. Simulation studies corroborate this idea, showing that nonlinear wave.particle interactions may result in rapid energization and scattering on timescales comparable to those of the impulsive relativistic electron precipitation.

Kersten, K.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Aircraft Loss-of-Control: Analysis and Requirements for Future Safety-Critical Systems and Their Validation

Loss of control remains one of the largest contributors to fatal aircraft accidents worldwide. Aircraft loss-of-control accidents are complex, resulting from numerous causal and contributing factors acting alone or more often in combination. Hence, there is no single intervention strategy to prevent these accidents. This paper summarizes recent analysis results in identifying worst-case combinations of loss-of-control accident precursors and their time sequences, a holistic approach to preventing loss-of-control accidents in the future, and key requirements for validating the associated technologies.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Accurate Radiometry from Space: An Essential Tool for Climate Studies

The Earth s climate is undoubtedly changing; however, the time scale, consequences and causal attribution remain the subject of significant debate and uncertainty. Detection of subtle indicators from a background of natural variability requires measurements over a time base of decades. This places severe demands on the instrumentation used, requiring measurements of sufficient accuracy and sensitivity that can allow reliable judgements to be made decades apart. The International System of Units (SI) and the network of National Metrology Institutes were developed to address such requirements. However, ensuring and maintaining SI traceability of sufficient accuracy in instruments orbiting the Earth presents a significant new challenge to the metrology community. This paper highlights some key measurands and applications driving the uncertainty demand of the climate community in the solar reflective domain, e.g. solar irradiances and reflectances/radiances of the Earth. It discusses how meeting these uncertainties facilitate significant improvement in the forecasting abilities of climate models. After discussing the current state of the art, it describes a new satellite mission, called TRUTHS, which enables, for the first time, high-accuracy SI traceability to be established in orbit. The direct use of a primary standard and replication of the terrestrial traceability chain extends the SI into space, in effect realizing a metrology laboratory in space . Keywords: climate change; Earth observation; satellites; radiometry; solar irradiance

Fox, Nigel↗

NASA NTRS2011

Shoulder Injuries in US Astronauts Related to EVA Suit Design

Introduction: For every one hour spent performing extravehicular activity (EVA) in space, astronauts in the US space program spend approximately six to ten hours training in the EVA spacesuit at NASA-Johnson Space Center's Neutral Buoyancy Lab (NBL). In 1997, NASA introduced the planar hard upper torso (HUT) EVA spacesuit which subsequently replaced the existing pivoted HUT. An extra joint in the pivoted shoulder allows increased mobility but also increased complexity. Over the next decade a number of astronauts developed shoulder problems requiring surgical intervention, many of whom performed EVA training in the NBL. This study investigated whether changing HUT designs led to shoulder injuries requiring surgical repair. Methods: US astronaut EVA training data and spacesuit design employed were analyzed from the NBL data. Shoulder surgery data was acquired from the medical record database, and causal mechanisms were obtained from personal interviews Analysis of the individual HUT designs was performed as it related to normal shoulder biomechanics. Results: To date, 23 US astronauts have required 25 shoulder surgeries. Approximately 48% (11/23) directly attributed their injury to training in the planar HUT, whereas none attributed their injury to training in the pivoted HUT. The planar HUT design limits shoulder abduction to 90 degrees compared to approximately 120 degrees in the pivoted HUT. The planar HUT also forces the shoulder into a forward flexed position requiring active retraction and extension to increase abduction beyond 90 degrees. Discussion: Multiple factors are associated with mechanisms leading to shoulder injury requiring surgical repair. Limitations to normal shoulder mechanics, suit fit, donning/doffing, body position, pre-existing injury, tool weight and configuration, age, in-suit activity, and HUT design have all been identified as potential sources of injury. Conclusion: Crewmembers with pre-existing or current shoulder injuries or certain anthropometric body types should conduct NBL EVA training in the pivoted HUT.

Scheuring, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Thoughts Without Content are Empty, Intuitions Without Concepts are Blind - Determinism and Contingency Revisited

Was the emergence of life a predictable outcome of chemical evolution on earth? Could evolution produce life very different from ours? These are one of the oldest questions in the field of the origin of life that not only have broad philosophical implications but also impact how we approach the problem from the methodological standpoint. Framing the issue in terms of the dichotomy between contingency and determinism is not a fortunate because these two terms in their conventional meaning are neither mutually exclusive nor jointly exhaustive. Determinism, represented in natural sciences by Newtonian physics, relies on the assumption that every event is causally determined by a chain of previous events. In the context of the origin of life it means that once the initial conditions on the early earth have been specified further evolution follows inevitably. Considering uncertainties about conditions on the prebiotic earth, many plausible sets of initial conditions can be defined, each followed by a separate deterministic trajectory. This conventional understanding of determinism does not admit contingency. Further, it has no implications for evaluating how many sets of initial conditions lead to the emergence of life. It appears that a better framing of the problem is as follows: given plausible sets of initial conditions on the early earth how probable and broadly spread are evolutionary trajectories that lead to life? Instead of undertaking an impossible task of specifying microscopic initial conditions for all components of the system one uses a reduced representation of this system and specify only a small set of essential macroscopic parameters, values (or ranges of values) of which can be identified, inferred or estimated from experiment, theory or historical record. The following evolutionary trajectories are still governed by laws of physics and chemistry but become probabilistic and "contingency" is admitted as variations in other variables in the system. A similar reasoning is common in other fields of science, for example in statistical mechanics. Some trajectories lead to life, perhaps in different forms, whereas others do not. Of our true interest is the ratio of these two outcomes. The issue of determinism does not directly enter the picture. The debate about the likelihood of the emergence of life is quite old. One view holds that the origin of life is an event governed by chance, and the result of so many random events (contingencies) is unpredictable. This view was eloquently expressed by Monod. In his book "Chance or Necessity" he argued that life was a product of "nature's roulette." In an alternative view, expressed in particular by deDuve and Morowitz, the origin of life is considered a highly probable or even inevitable event (although its details need not be determined in every respect). Only in this sense the origin of life can be considered a "deterministic event".

Pohorille, Andrew↗

NASA NTRS2012

Probability of Causation for Space Radiation Carcinogenesis Following International Space Station, Near Earth Asteroid, and Mars Missions

Cancer risk is an important concern for International Space Station (ISS) missions and future exploration missions. An important question concerns the likelihood of a causal association between a crew members radiation exposure and the occurrence of cancer. The probability of causation (PC), also denoted as attributable risk, is used to make such an estimate. This report summarizes the NASA model of space radiation cancer risks and uncertainties, including improvements to represent uncertainties in tissue-specific cancer incidence models for never-smokers and the U.S. average population. We report on tissue-specific cancer incidence estimates and PC for different post-mission times for ISS and exploration missions. An important conclusion from our analysis is that the NASA policy to limit the risk of exposure-induced death to 3% at the 95% confidence level largely ensures that estimates of the PC for most cancer types would not reach a level of significance. Reducing uncertainties through radiobiological research remains the most efficient method to extend mission length and establish effective mitigators for cancer risks. Efforts to establish biomarkers of space radiation-induced tumors and to estimate PC for rarer tumor types are briefly discussed.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗