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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic Optimization and Uncertainty Quantification of Natrium-based Nuclear-Renewable Energy Systems for Flexible Power Applications in Deregulated Markets

Rapid integration of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) has made modeling and stochastic optimization of hybrid energy systems crucial for studying their long-term performance and viability. However, most studies have focused on just historical data, which may be unreliable for capturing short-term fluctuations, rare events, and long-term patterns of energy demand, price, and the variability of renewable energy sources. For this study, optimal synthetic time series models were developed using Wasserstein distance. The models were validated by comparing the key statistical measures against those of the historical data. They were then used to optimize the integrated Natrium-style advanced energy systems and their long-term (30 years) economics. The stochastic model performs bi-level optimization to find the optimal sizes for the balance of plant and thermal energy storage, while also optimizing energy dispatch to achieve the maximum net present value. In studies of two deregulated markets (California ISO and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas), the integrated Natrium-style system performed better in CAISO than in ERCOT, given higher and more consistent electricity prices during peak-demand periods. The potentially enlarged cost associated with the variable operation and maintenance of the TES system also plays a significant role in driving the system sizing, thus its impacts on the system are investigated in detail through comparison against a baseline case. The study also finds that the bi-level optimization results based on stochastic gradient descent closely match the grid search results. The uncertainty quantification of the stochastic signals provides further NPV-related insights and probability distributions for the case studies. The normal standard error of the mean of NPV for the case with and without TES VOM for CAISO were found to be 7.73M (plus-minus sign) 1.09M USD and 104.99M (plus-minus sign) 1.25M USD, respectively based on a 95% confidence. Given the relatively small NPV variance based on 150 samples, the analysis affords the most robust possible prediction of the techno-economic performance of the integrated Natrium-style energy systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating FRI3D for Cost Savings in Fire Hazard Analysis at DOE Sites

A fire hazard analysis, required for many U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) facilities, is a complex, cumbersome, and costly process. Fire hazard analyses may be viewed as a checkbox, but ideally and in spirit with the DOE-STD-1066, the fire hazard analysis (FHA) should be a part of the workflow and used to help in modifications, maintenance, and improving operational safety. With current FHA development processes, it is both time and cost prohibitive for true integration. A tool called Fire Risk Investigation in 3D or FRI3D was developed under the DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability program to simplify and automate many aspects of a fire probabilistic risk analysis for existing nuclear power plants. The FRI3D tool automates fire scenarios by combining approved fire simulation codes, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission fire calculations methods, 3D modeling and visualization, and probabilistic risk analysis models into a single workflow supported with a user interface. FRI3D was initially designed for used in combination with a PRA, this case study, evaluated using FRI3D for a plant modification, determined the benefits that detailed fire modeling can have for U.S. Department of Energy facilities with or without a PRA model. It also looked at what tasks from DOE requirements could be reduced using the tool and what is needed to integrate fire hazard analysis into site workflow.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Learning effective stochastic differential equations from microscopic simulations: Linking stochastic numerics to deep learning

We identify effective stochastic differential equations (SDEs) for coarse observables of fine-grained particle- or agent-based simulations; these SDEs then provide useful coarse surrogate models of the fine scale dynamics. We approximate the drift and diffusivity functions in these effective SDEs through neural networks, which can be thought of as effective stochastic ResNets. The loss function is inspired by, and embodies, the structure of established stochastic numerical integrators (here, Euler–Maruyama and Milstein); our approximations can thus benefit from backward error analysis of these underlying numerical schemes. They also lend themselves naturally to “physics-informed” gray-box identification when approximate coarse models, such as mean field equations, are available. Existing numerical integration schemes for Langevin-type equations and for stochastic partial differential equations can also be used for training; we demonstrate this on a stochastically forced oscillator and the stochastic wave equation. Our approach does not require long trajectories, works on scattered snapshot data, and is designed to naturally handle different time steps per snapshot. We consider both the case where the coarse collective observables are known in advance, as well as the case where they must be found in a data-driven manner.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian Inference with Latent Hamiltonian Neural Networks (L-HNNs)

When sampling for Bayesian inference, one popular approach is to use Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS). However, HMC and NUTS can require numerous numerical gradients of the target density and can prove slow in practice. We propose Hamiltonian neural networks (HNNs) with HMC and NUTS for solving Bayesian inference problems [1, 2]. Once trained, HNNs do not require gradients of the target density while sampling. Moreover, they satisfy important properties such as perfect time reversibility and Hamiltonian conservation, making them well suited for use within HMC and NUTS because stationarity can be shown. We also propose an HNN extension called latent HNNs (L-HNNs), which predict latent variable outputs. Compared to HNNs, L-HNNs offer improved expressivity and a reduction in integration errors. Finally, we propose employing L-HNNs in NUTS with an online error monitoring scheme to prevent degeneracy of the sampling in regions of low probability density. We demonstrate L-HNNs in NUTS with online error monitoring by using several example cases involving complex, heavy-tailed, and high local curvature probability densities. Overall, L-HNNs in NUTS with online error monitoring satisfactorily inferred these probability densities. Compared to traditional NUTS, L-HNNs in NUTS with online error monitoring improved the effective sample size (ESS) per gradient by an order of magnitude.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

High‐order cubature rules for tetrahedra

Summary In this paper, we construct new high‐order numerical integration schemes for tetrahedra, with positive weights and integration points that are in the interior of the domain. The construction of cubature rules is a challenging problem, which requires the solution of strongly nonlinear algebraic (moment) equations with side conditions given by affine inequality constraints. We present a robust algorithm based on a sequence of three modified Newton procedures to solve the constrained minimization problem. In the literature, numerical integration rules for the tetrahedron are available up to order p =15. We obtain integration rules for the tetrahedron from p =2 to p =20, which are computed using multiprecision arithmetic. For p ≤15, our approach provides integration rules that have the same or fewer number of integration points than existing rules; for p =16 to p =20, our rules are new. Numerical tests are presented that verify the polynomial‐precision of the cubature rules. Convergence studies are performed for the integration of exponential, rational, weakly singular and trigonometric test functions over tetrahedra with flat and curved faces. In all tests, improvements in accuracy is realized as p is increased, though in some cases nonmonotonic convergence is observed.

Jaśkowiec, Jan↗
DOE OSTI2024

A new approach to the evaluation and solution of the relativistic kinetic dispersion relation and verification with continuum kinetic simulation

Here, the present work describes a new approach to evaluation and root finding for the kinetic dispersion relation of Langmuir waves, which is central to the analytical understanding of collisionless damping in plasmas. The plasma dispersion function is solved to machine precision using direct integration in the complex plane in combination with an analytic evaluation of the residue to account for the deformation along the Landau contour. To efficiently attain machine precision, the contour is displaced in the complex plane prior to integration, and numerical subtleties related to the placement of the contour are discussed. The approach is generic in that it applies to arbitrary distribution functions, with the present manuscript focused on relativistic cases. Detailed verification of results via direct kinetic simulation in a variety of configuration space dimensions is also presented. Finally, the technique is applied to the challenging case of highly relativistic (i.e. extremely hot) plasmas. Here we show both qualitative agreement with prior work, as well as the disappearance of the Landau root which would have significant implication for real-life observation or experiment.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Extreme-scale EV charging infrastructure planning for last-mile delivery using high-performance parallel computing

Here, this paper addresses stochastic charger location and allocation problems under queue congestion for last-mile delivery using electric vehicles (EVs). The objective is to decide where to open charging stations and how many chargers of each type to install, subject to budgetary and waiting-time constraints. We formulate the problem as a mixed-integer non-linear program, where each station-charger pair is modeled as a multiserver queue with stochastic arrivals and service times to capture the notion of waiting in fleet operations. The model is extremely large, with billions of variables and constraints for a typical metropolitan area; even loading the model in solver memory is difficult, let alone solving it. To address this challenge, we develop a Lagrangian-based dual decomposition framework that decomposes the problem by station and leverages parallelization on high-performance computing systems, where the subproblems are solved by using a cutting plane method and their solutions are collected at the master level. We also develop a three-step rounding heuristic to transform the fractional subproblem solutions into feasible integral solutions. Computational experiments on data from the Chicago metropolitan area with hundreds of thousands of households and thousands of candidate stations show that our approach produces high-quality solutions in cases where existing exact methods cannot even load the model in memory. We also analyze various policy scenarios, demonstrating that combining existing depots with newly built stations under multiagency collaboration substantially reduces costs and congestion. These findings offer a scalable and efficient framework for developing sustainable large-scale EV charging networks.

Capacity allocation↗
DOE OSTI2021

A framework for integrated dispatching and charging management of an autonomous electric vehicle ride-hailing fleet

The convergence of electrification and automated driving will introduce opportunities to improve the operation and energy-efficiency of transportation systems. This paper discusses the challenges of dispatching autonomous electric vehicles (AEVs) in a ride-hailing fleet and their interactions with charging infrastructure. An integrated decision-making framework for dispatching and charging has been proposed using system optimization approaches. An agent-based platform has been developed for simulating and testing the proposed methods. A case study using New York City taxi data has been performed with different fleet sizes, dispatching strategies, and charging networks. Advantages of optimization-based approaches for AEV fleet management have been studied and demonstrated, for example, for a fleet of 1,750 AEVs to meet 100,000 daily requests, optimization-based centralized fleet management would result in 14% more ride requests satisfied and 43% fewer zero-occupancy miles traveled than if AEVs make independent decisions based on heuristic strategy. Benefits on reducing fleet size and charging downtime from optimization approaches are also comprehensively illustrated.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enabling kilometer-scale E3SM land model simulation over North America: A new integrated framework solution

This study introduces a novel framework designed to enhance the performance, scalability, and portability of the kilometer-scale E3SM Land Model (km-ELM) within the E3SM modeling infrastructure. By seamlessly integrating cutting-edge data tools, we address existing challenges such as slow performance, limited scalability, and difficulties in software integration in current data-driven ELM simulation over large geographic areas. Our innovative approach leverages the KiloCraft data toolkit to generate unified inputs for simulations ranging from a single-cite case, to a 72,083-cell regional case to a continental configuration encompassing 21.6 million land grid cells at a 1 km × 1 km resolution. We conduct extensive strong- and weak-scaling experiments on three state-of-the-art supercomputers, utilizing up to 100,800 CPU cores across 2400 compute nodes to evaluate end-to-end metrics including wall-clock time, simulation-years-per-day (SYPD), initialization costs, and I/O throughput. Our results reveal the land (LND) component’s efficient scaling, demonstrating near-ideal weak scaling and strong-scaling parallel efficiencies reaching up to 87% at 50,400 cores. We confirm portability and reproducibility through bitwise-equivalent outputs across different machines using identical inputs over supported machines. Notably, at extreme scales, we identify I/O as a critical bottleneck and that leads to effective solution with the SCORPIO/ADIOS stack. Collectively, these findings validate the deployment of km-ELM at a continental scale with high parallel efficiency and provide essential guidance on configuration, decomposition, and I/O settings for optimized kilometer-scale land simulations in E3SM. This work emphasizes the innovative design and practical solutions that enhance the operational capabilities of km-ELM, focusing on software performance and scalability while leaving detailed scientific evaluations of simulated land processes for future investigations.

E3SM land model (ELM), km-ELM, scalability, perfor↗
DOE OSTI2024

Lattice regularization of reduced Kähler-Dirac fermions and connections to chiral fermions

We show how a path integral for reduced Kähler-Dirac fermions suffers from a phase ambiguity associated with the fermion measure that is an analog of the measure problem seen for chiral fermions. However, unlike the case of chiral symmetry, a doubler free lattice action exists which is invariant under the corresponding onsite symmetry. This allows for a clear diagnosis and solution to the problem using mirror fermions resulting in a unique gauge invariant measure. By introducing an appropriate set of Yukawa interactions which are consistent with ’t Hooft anomaly cancellation we conjecture the mirrors can be decoupled from low energy physics. Moreover, the minimal such Kähler-Dirac mirror model yields a light sector which corresponds, in the flat space continuum limit, to the Pati-Salam GUT model.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Conceptual Design for a Desktop Application to Support Inventory Reconciliation Activities

This paper describes desktop software being developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to empower users to reconcile observations about items at nuclear facilities more accurately, reliably, and quickly. Inventory activities at nuclear facilities are often conducted using pen and paper, which can be time-consuming, tedious, and susceptible to reading or transcription errors. The proposed inventory assistant would be a replacement for the paper-based process that could be used by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors, nuclear facility operators, or treaty verification monitors to conduct an inventory of nuclear and non-nuclear items in a more timely and accurate manner. Garner, McGirl, and Whitaker previously reported their work about a conceptual design for a mobile app to assist users in the field. In general, the inventory assistant would ingest an inventory list, distribute assigned items from the inventory list to one or more mobile devices, enable inventory teams to record their observations in the field, and then enable an inventory lead to integrate and reconcile the observations to produce a final report. The assistant consists of two software components - one for the inventory teams to record observations in the field (In-Field Observations App [IFOA]) and one for the inventory lead to (1) distribute the inventory list to each team, (2) integrate the observations from each team, and (3) reconcile the inventory list with observations (Distribution, Integration, and Reconciliation Application [DIRA]). This paper reviews the inventory assistant workflow and describes the DIRA user experience in more detail. As an example, the authors have chosen to follow the use case of IAEA inspectors conducting item counting and tag checking activities of UF 6 cylinders at a gas centrifuge enrichment plant with a large number of UF 6 cylinders (e.g., thousands). These activities can currently require 30 - 40 person-days of inspection to complete. The authors believe an inventory assistant could allow the IAEA to complete item counting and tag checking using the global identifier or the operator’s barcode in 8 - 10 person-days of inspection. We would expect other users (e.g., facility operators or treaty verification monitors) to also benefit from significant time savings.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Beyond DERMS: Demonstration of Automated Grid Services, Mode Transition, and Resilience

This report describes the results of more advanced use cases including Ancillary Services, Black-sky-day operation, and Mode Switching from Phase 3 of the “Beyond DERMS” project aiming to build, deploy, and demonstrate a holistic platform that supports the integrated operation and planning of future power distribution networks with bi-directional power flows, many diverse distributed energy resources (DERs), and inverter-based resources. These test results demonstrated how a Beyond DERMS platform can fuse together AMI, SCADA, and DER data to provide a utility with deep insights into distribution network operations and planning, extending the value of DERMS and BTM DER resources.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

WIND Toolkit Long-Term Ensemble Dataset

WIND Toolkit Long-term Ensemble Dataset (WTK-LED), an updated version of the meteorological WIND Toolkit, is a meteorological dataset providing high-resolution time series, including interannual variability and model uncertainty of wind speed at every modeling grid point to indicate ranges of possible wind speeds. The data were produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The vertical grid used in WTK-LED includes many vertical layers in the atmospheric boundary layer to provide information of atmospheric quantities across the rotor layer of utility scale and distributed wind turbines. The WTK-LED includes: (1) Numerical simulations of wind speed and other meteorological variables covering the contiguous United States (CONUS) and Alaska, with high-resolution (5-minute [min], 2-kilometer [km]) data for 3 years (2018-2020): WTK-LED CONUS, WTK-LED Alaska. (2) Climate simulations from Argonne National Laboratory covering North America, including Alaska, Canada, and most of Mexico and the Caribbean islands. These simulations complement the new WTK-LED to offer a 4-km, hourly dataset covering 20 years (2001-2020): WTK-LED Climate. (3) Specific long-term, high-resolution offshore simulations have been conducted separately for the U.S. coasts, Hawaii, and the Great Lakes, leading to the 2023 National Offshore Wind dataset: NOW-23. The data for Hawaii include land-based data and are part of WTK-LED Hawaii. Because the accuracy of simulations from a mesoscale model, such as WRF, varies depending on the location and weather situation, and can reach up to several m/s for wind speed, we provide simulated wind speed uncertainty estimates to the community to be used in conjunction with the deterministic model simulations. This dataset was developed to satisfy a wide group of stakeholders across various wind energy disciplines, including but not limited to stakeholders in the distributed and utility scale wind industry, the new emerging airborne wind energy field, grid integration, power systems modeling, environmental modeling, and researchers in academia, and to close some of the gaps that current public datasets have. Based on our validation results to date, we suggest use cases and applications for each dataset of the WTK-LED as shown in "WTK-LED Use Cases" resource below.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2022

From Farm to Flight: CoverCress as a Low Carbon Intensity Cash Cover Crop for Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production. A Review of Progress Towards Commercialization

Thlaspi arvense L. (Field Pennycress; pennycress) is being converted into a winter-annual oilseed crop that confers cover crop benefits when grown throughout the 12 million-hectares U.S. Midwest. To ensure a fit with downstream market demand, conversion involves not only improvements in yield and maturity through traditional breeding, but also improvements in the composition of the oil and protein through gene editing tools. The conversion process is similar to the path taken to convert rapeseed into Canola. In the case of field pennycress, the converted product that is suitable as a rotational crop is called CoverCress™ as marketed by CoverCress Inc. or golden pennycress if marketed by others. Off-season integration of a CoverCress crop into existing corn and soybean hectares would extend the growing season on established croplands and avoid displacement of food crops or ecosystems while yielding up to 1 billion liters of seed oil annually by 2030, with the potential to grow to 8 billion liters from production in the U.S. Midwest alone. The aviation sector is committed to carbon-neutral growth and reducing emissions of its global market, which in 2019 approached 122 billion liters of consumption in the U.S. and 454 billion liters globally. The oil derived from a CoverCress crop is ideally suited as a new bioenergy feedstock for the production of drop-in Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), renewable diesel, biodiesel and other value-added coproducts. Through a combination of breeding and genomics-enabled mutagenesis approaches, considerable progress has been made in genetically improving yield and other agronomic traits. With USDA-NIFA funding and continued public and private investments, improvements to CoverCress germplasm and agronomic practices suggest that field-scale production can surpass 1,680 kg ha -1 (1,500 lb ac -1 ) in the near term. At current commodity prices, economic modeling predicts this level of production can be profitable across the entire supply chain. Two-thirds of the grain value is in oil converted to fuels and chemicals, and the other one-third is in the meal used as an animal feed, industrial applications, and potential plant-based protein products. In addition to strengthening rural communities by providing income to producers and agribusinesses, cultivating a CoverCress crop potentially offers a myriad of ecosystem services. The most notable service is water quality protection through reduced nutrient leaching and reduced soil erosion. Biodiversity enhancement by supporting pollinators’ health is also a benefit. While the efforts described herein are focused on the U.S., cultivation of a CoverCress crop will likely have a broader application to regions around the world with similar agronomic and environmental conditions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Do Arctic mixed-phase clouds sometimes dissipate due to insufficient aerosol? Evidence from comparisons between observations and idealized simulations

Abstract. Mixed-phase clouds are ubiquitous in the Arctic. These clouds can persist for days and dissipate in a matter of hours. It is sometimes unknown what causes this sudden dissipation, but aerosol–cloud interactions may be involved. Arctic aerosol concentrations can be low enough to affect cloud formation and structure, and it has been hypothesized that, in some instances, concentrations can drop below some critical value needed to maintain a cloud. We use observations from a Department of Energy ARM site on the northern slope of Alaska at Oliktok Point (OLI), the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) field campaign in the high Arctic Ocean, and the Integrated Characterisation of Energy, Clouds, Atmospheric state, and Precipitation at Summit – Aerosol Cloud Experiment (ICECAPS-ACE) project at the NSF (National Science Foundation) Summit Station in Greenland (SMT) to identify one case per site where Arctic boundary layer clouds dissipated coincidentally with a decrease in surface aerosol concentrations. These cases are used to initialize idealized large eddy simulations (LESs) in which aerosol concentrations are held constant until, at a specified time, all aerosols are removed instantaneously – effectively creating an extreme case of aerosol-limited dissipation which represents the fastest a cloud could possibly dissipate via this process. These LESs are compared against the observed data to determine whether cases could, potentially, be dissipating due to insufficient aerosol. The OLI case's observed liquid water path (LWP) dissipated faster than its simulation, indicating that other processes are likely the primary drivers of the dissipation. The ASCOS and SMT observed LWP dissipated at similar rates to their respective simulations, suggesting that aerosol-limited dissipation may be occurring in these instances. We also find that the microphysical response to this extreme aerosol forcing depends greatly on the specific case being simulated. Cases with drizzling liquid layers are simulated to dissipate by accelerating precipitation when aerosol is removed while the case with a non-drizzling liquid layer dissipates quickly, possibly glaciating via the Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen (WBF) process. The non-drizzling case is also more sensitive to ice-nucleating particle (INP) concentrations than the drizzling cases. Overall, the simulations suggest that aerosol-limited cloud dissipation in the Arctic is plausible and that there are at least two microphysical pathways by which aerosol-limited dissipation can occur.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hydropower Advantages over Batteries in Energy Storage of Off-Grid Systems: A Case Study

Microgrids are decentralized power production systems, where the energy production and consumption are very close to each other. Microgrids generally exploit renewable energy sources, encountering a problem of storage, as the power production from solar and wind is intermittent. This research presents a new integrated methodology and discusses a comparison of batteries and pumped storage hydropower (PSH) as energy storage systems with the integration of wind and solar PV energy sources, which are the major upcoming technologies in the renewable energy sector. We implemented the simulator and optimizer model (HOMER), which develops energy availability usage to obtain optimized renewable energy integration in the microgrid, showing its economic added value. Two scenarios are run with this model—one considers batteries as an energy storage technology and the other considers PSH—in order to obtain the best economic and technical results for the analyzed microgrid. The economic analysis showed a lower net present cost (NPC) and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for the microgrid with PSH. The results showed that the microgrid with the storage of PSH was economical, with an NPC of 45.8 M€ and an LCOE of 0.379 €/kWh, in comparison with the scenario with batteries, which had an NPC of 95.2 M€ and an LCOE of 0.786 €/kWh. The role of storage was understood by differentiating the data into different seasons, using a Python model. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis was conducted by varying the capital cost multiplier of solar PV and wind turbines to obtain the best optimal economic solutions.

Guruprasad, Prajwal↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for Filling the Cellulosic Bio-economy Gap by Utilizing a Wedge Approach Combined with Stakeholder Collaboration

The price gap between the market and breakeven prices of cellulosic biomass for farmers represents a significant barrier to the development of a low-carbon cellulosic bioeconomy. Using a bottom-up, agent-based modeling tool that replicates the behaviors and interactions of key stakeholders, this study analyzes the emergence of a cellulosic bioeconomy at the local scale through a wedge approach that examines an integrated portfolio of multiple policy options, including subsidies for small-scale bioproducts and environmental credits. The role of collaboration among multiple stakeholders, such as biomass producers (farmers), bio-refinery industry, government, and society, is assessed for filling the price gap. Using the Sangamon River Basin as a case study site, we evaluate the effectiveness of the wedge approach by comparing simulation results from multiple scenarios, each incorporating different combinations of bioeconomy wedges, with and without stakeholder collaboration. Results underscore that active collaboration among stakeholders acts as a catalyst enlarging the effectiveness of bioeconomy wedges. Including the carbon credits and environmental value in the policy portfolio is found to bridge the price gap through collective contributions from diverse stakeholders, where the cellulosic biofuel and bioproduct industry plays a pivotal role. Although this study is conducted at the local watershed scale, the methodology and findings offer valuable insights for market development in other watersheds and the potential scaling of local markets to regional and national levels.

Economics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Demand response event simulator and risk-aware bidding tool for industrial customers

Incentive Based Demand Response (IBDR) program participation delivers financial benefits to the consumers and resiliency benefits to the electricity grid. Effectively participating in these programs as an industrial consumer requires bidding strategies that balance financial risk with operational constraints. Existing bidding tools tend not to fully incorporate stochastic IBDR event modeling, program specific baseline and payment/penalty calculations, or demand reduction process control schemes that account for the cascading impacts of shutdown in complex facilities. Here, this work presents an IBDR event simulator and risk-aware bidding framework tool integrating three key components: a flexible, parameterized demand response event generator that rigorously accounts for program structures and stochasticity, a demand response operational simulation model that generates explicit control strategies for load reduction, and a Monte Carlo simulator to evaluate financial risk for varied capacity bids. A case study at a wastewater treatment plant participating in PG&E's Capacity Bidding Program demonstrates the framework's utility. In the peak capacity price month of August, optimal bidding by the wastewater treatment plant nets a mean IBDR benefit of $101,000 (67% of the August electricity bill) with 0.4% probability of a financial loss. This framework enables industrial operators to make informed bidding decisions, negotiate better program terms with demand response load aggregators, and analyze energy flexibility investments at their facilities. Ultimately, this work reduces participation barriers in IBDR programs and supports the broader goal of enhancing grid reliability and renewable energy integration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗