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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

Predicting the Magnetic Field of Earth-Impacting CMEs

Predicting the impact of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the southward component of their magnetic field is one of the key goals of space weather forecasting. We present a new model, the ForeCAT In situ Data Observer (FIDO), for predicting the in situ magnetic field of CMEs. We first simulate a CME using ForeCAT, a model for CME deflection and rotation resulting from the background solar magnetic forces. Using the CME position and orientation from ForeCAT, we then determine the passage of the CME over a simulated spacecraft. We model the CME's magnetic field using a force-free flux rope and we determine the in situ magnetic profile at the synthetic spacecraft. We show that FIDO can reproduce the general behavior of four observed CMEs. FIDO results are very sensitive to the CME's position and orientation, and we show that the uncertainty in a CME's position and orientation from coronagraph images corresponds to a wide range of in situ magnitudes and even polarities. This small range of positions and orientations also includes CMEs that entirely miss the satellite. We show that two derived parameters (the normalized angular distance between the CME nose and satellite position and the angular difference between the CME tilt and the position angle of the satellite with respect to the CME nose) can be used to reliably determine whether an impact or miss occurs. We find that the same criteria separate the impacts and misses for cases representing all four observed CMEs.

Kay, C.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Transient Pressure Interference During CO2 Injection in Saline Aquifers

Abstract CO2 injection in subsurface geological formations (e.g. deep saline aquifers) causes pressure perturbations over a large area surrounding the injection well. Observation wells are widely considered in geologic CO2 storage (GCS) projects where the pressure perturbation induced by CO2 injection is measured. In this work, we use analytical and numerical modeling tools along with field data to examine the pressure behavior in GCS projects before and after CO2 arrival at an observation well. Prior to CO2 arrival, a baseline pressure trend is established which corresponds to single-phase brine flow across the observation well (approximated by Theis solution). Therefore, analysis of early-time pressure data is straightforward, provides the single-phase flow characteristics (mobility and storativity), and helps establishing a baseline pressure change that can be extended beyond the single-phase flow period at the observation well. Upon CO2 arrival, a departure from this baseline trend is expected. For the pressure to detect the CO2 arrival at an observation well, the departure from baseline pressure behavior must be significant and well above the background noise levels. We use existing analytical models to determine the strength of the expected pressure departure signal from the baseline trend upon CO2 arrival. The strength of the expected pressure departure is found to be directly proportional to the mobility ratio. Accordingly, we establish a criterion to determine whether the pressure at an observation well can detect the CO2 arrival. We present an analysis approach through application to synthetic and field data and show the characteristic pressure behavior before and after CO2 arrival. We show that while generally the pressure can be either above or below the expected baseline pressure trend, it would be likely above the baseline upon CO2 arrival. This is because the mobility ratio becomes less than unity after CO2 arrival. We show that depending on the reservoir characteristics, changes in the pressure trend may or may not be sufficient to detect the CO2 arrival.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of Unpolarised p+p¿ Photoproduction with the GlueX Experiment

This thesis presents measurements of spin-density matrix elements in unpolarised p+p? photoproduction on a proton target. The dominant resonance contribution to the dipion system is the r(770) meson. Due to the large production cross section for this resonance, a valid comparison can be made between the obtained final results and r(770) spin-density matrix elements measured previously with other experiments. The measurement was performed over the 3:0 ? 11:6 GeV beam energy regime, which is a more extensive energy range than has ever been studied previously for the r(770). Results were obtained by analysing data from the GlueX experiment based at Jefferson Lab. Extended maximum likelihood fits were applied to extract three spin-density matrix elements using Markov chain Monte Carlo based parameter estimations. This was performed using various binning configurations to probe the energy, mass, and four-momentum transfer dependence of the determined physics observables. Spin-density matrix elements are shown to be consistent with the model of s-channel helicity conservation at low ?t. The effects of pomeron and f2 exchanges are clearly visible in the energy dependence of the measured observables. These observations provide valuable insights into the relative strengths of both processes as a function of the photon energy, and may enable theorists to disentangle the f2=P coupling ratio. Spin-density matrix elements are seen to be highly dependent on the reconstructed resonance mass. This observation is likely to be a result of non-resonant S-wave background processes, and emphasises the need for a more detailed model of the p+p? angular distribution that considers all of the competing angular momentum components that contribute to the measured final state. The statistical precision of measurements performed for this thesis surpass what was achievable in previous studies of the r(770) by several orders of magnitude. Studies of the energy and four-momentum transfer dependence, and insights into the effects of non r(770) background contributions provide valuable input for production models. This will help inform the choice of wave-sets used for partial wave analyses, supporting GlueX in its search for exotic hybrid meson states.

Fitches, James↗
NASA NTRS1986

The synchrotron-maser theory of type II solar radio emission processes - The physical model and generation mechanism

A theory is proposed to explain the generation mechanism of type II solar radio bursts. It is suggested that the shock wave formed at the leading edge of a coronal transient can accelerate electrons. Because of the nature of the acceleration process, the energized electrons can possess a 'hollow-beam' type distribution function. When the electron beam propagates along the ambient magnetic field to lower altitudes and attains larger pitch angles, a synchrotron-maser instability can set in. This instability leads to the amplification of unpolarized or weakly polarized radiation. The present discussion incorporates a model which describes the ambient magnetic field and background plasma by means of MHD simulation. The potential emission regions may be located approximately, according to the time-dependent MHD simulation. Since the average local plasma frequency in the source region can be evaluated from the MHD model, the frequent drift associated with the radiation may be estimated. The result seems to be in good agreement with that derived from observations.

Wu, C. S.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Particles above the tropopause - Measurements and models of stratospheric aerosols, meteoric debris, nacreous clouds, and noctilucent clouds

An outline is presented of the present status of knowledge of stratospheric aerosols, meteoric debris, nacreous clouds, and noctilucent clouds. Considerable progress has been made in studies of these particles during the previous decade and it is appropriate to synthesize the information to provide a background for studies planned for the 1980s. Numerical models of the formation, growth, and evolution are considered and a description is given of the physical processes involved, taking into account aspects of nucleation, coagulation, condensational growth, sedimentation, and questions of dynamical transport. A schematic outline of the physical and chemical processes included in a model of stratospheric aerosols is provided.

Toon, O. B.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Primordial inhomogeneities in the expanding universe. II - General features of spherical models at late times

This paper studies the density profile that forms around a spherically symmetric bound central core immersed in a homogeneous-background k = 0 or k = -1 Friedmann-Robertson-Walker cosmological model, with zero pressure. Although the density profile in the linearized regime is almost arbitrary, in the nonlinear regime certain universal features of the density profile are obtained that are independent of the details of the initial conditions. The formation of 'halos' ('holes') with densities greater than (less than) the average cosmological density is discussed. It is shown that in most regions 'halos' form, and universal values are obtained for the slope of the ln (density)-ln (radius) profile in those 'halos' at late times, independently of the shape of the initial density profile. Restrictions are derived on where it is possible for 'holes' to exist at late times and on how such 'holes' must have evolved.

Olson, D. W.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating the strength of selection for new SARS-CoV-2 variants

Abstract Controlling the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic becomes increasingly challenging as the virus adapts to human hosts through the continual emergence of more transmissible variants. Simply observing that a variant is increasing in frequency is relatively straightforward, but more sophisticated methodology is needed to determine whether a new variant is a global threat and the magnitude of its selective advantage. We present two models for quantifying the strength of selection for new and emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2 relative to the background of contemporaneous variants. These methods range from a detailed model of dynamics within one country to a broad analysis across all countries, and they include alternative explanations such as migration and drift. We find evidence for strong selection favoring the D614G spike mutation and B.1.1.7 (Alpha), weaker selection favoring B.1.351 (Beta), and no advantage of R.1 after it spreads beyond Japan. Cutting back data to earlier time horizons reveals that uncertainty is large very soon after emergence, but that estimates of selection stabilize after several weeks. Our results also show substantial heterogeneity among countries, demonstrating the need for a truly global perspective on the molecular epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of gravitational lensing of the cosmic microwave background using SPT-3G 2018 data

We present a measurement of gravitational lensing over 1500 deg 2 of the Southern sky using SPT-3G temperature data at 95 GHz and 150 GHz taken in 2018. The lensing amplitude relative to a fiducial Planck 2018 Lambda cold dark matter ( Λ CDM ) cosmology is found to be 1.020 ± 0.060 , excluding instrumental and astrophysical systematic uncertainties. We conduct extensive systematic and null tests to check the robustness of the lensing measurements, and report a minimum-variance combined lensing power spectrum over angular multipoles of 50 < L < 2000 , which we use to constrain cosmological models. When analyzed alone and jointly with primary cosmic microwave background (CMB) spectra within the Λ CDM model, our lensing amplitude measurements are consistent with measurements from SPT-SZ, SPTpol, ACT, and Planck. Incorporating loose priors on the baryon density and other parameters including uncertainties on a foreground bias template, we obtain a 1 σ constraint on σ 8 Ω m 0.25 = 0.595 ± 0.026 using the SPT-3G 2018 lensing data alone, where σ 8 is a common measure of the amplitude of structure today and Ω m is the matter density parameter. Combining SPT-3G 2018 lensing measurements with baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) data, we derive parameter constraints of σ 8 = 0.810 ± 0.033 , S 8 ≡ σ 8 ( Ω m / 0.3 ) 0.5 = 0.836 ± 0.039 , and Hubble constant H 0 = 68.8 - 1.6 + 1.3 km s - 1 Mpc - 1 . Our preferred S 8 value is higher by 1.6 to 1.8 σ compared to cosmic shear measurements from DES-Y3, HSC-Y3, and KiDS-1000 at lower redshift and smaller scales. We combine our lensing data with CMB anisotropy measurements from both SPT-3G and Planck to constrain extensions of Λ CDM . Using CMB anisotropy and lensing measurements from SPT-3G only, we provide independent constraints on the spatial curvature of Ω K = 0.01 4 - 0.026 + 0.023 (95% C.L.) and the dark energy density of Ω Λ = 0.72 2 - 0.026 + 0.031 (68% C.L.). When combining SPT-3G lensing data with SPT-3G CMB anisotropy and BAO data, we find an upper limit on the sum of the neutrino masses of ∑ m ν < 0.30 eV (95% C.L.). Due to the different combination of angular scales and sky area, this lensing analysis provides an independent check on lensing measurements by ACT and Planck.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

NS5-brane backgrounds and coset CFT partition functions

Worldsheet string theory is solvable for a variety of backgrounds involving Neveu-Schwarz fivebranes, in terms of gauged nonlinear sigma models on group manifolds. We compute the worldsheet torus partition function of these models, and propose gauging of null isometries as a unifying principle and conceptual framework for this large family of string backgrounds. In the process, we explain how partition functions of asymmetrically gauged Wess-Zumino-Witten models can be computed from the path integral, and organize and systematize various results scattered throughout the literature.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1987

Zonal winds near Venus' cloud top level - A model study of the interaction between the zonal mean circulation and the semidiurnal tide

The Holton (1982) wave-mean flow interaction model's primitive equation is presently adapted in order to clarify the interaction between the semidiurnal tide and the thermally driven mean meridional circulation near cloud top level. The model is found to produce midlatitude jets whose structure is insensitive to vertical shear of the background angular velocity, both above and below cloud top level; a sensitivity to background angular velocity at cloud top level, however, is noted. Agreement between the model tide and either the observed one or that generated by the more detailed calculations of Pechmann and Ingersoll (1984) is found to be greatest when the background angular velocity at the jet level is of the order of 30 percent larger than that which is observed.

Baker, Nancy L.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Human-Induced Climate Variations Linked to Urbanization: From Observations to Modeling

The goal of this session is to bring together scientists from interdisciplinary backgrounds to discuss the data, scientific approaches and recent results focusing on the impact of urbanization on the climate. The discussion will highlight current observational and modeling capabilities being employed for investigating the urban environment and its linkage to the change in the Earth's climate system. The goal of the session is to identify our current stand and the future direction on the topic. Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of population of the world has moved to urban areas. By 1995, more than 70% of population of North America and Europe were living in cities. By 2025, the United Nations estimates that 60% of the worlds population will live in cities. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is urban, better understanding of how the atmosphere-ocean-land-biosphere components interact as a coupled system and the influence of human activities on this system is critical. Our understanding of urbanization effect is incomplete, partly because human activities induce new changes on climate in addition to the original natural variations, and partly because previously few data available for study urban effect globally. Urban construction changes surface roughness, albedo, heat capacity and vegetation coverage. Traffic and industry increase atmospheric aerosol. It is suggested that urbanization may modify rainfall processes through aerosol-cloud interactions or dynamic feedbacks. Because urbanization effect on climate is determined by many factors including land cover, the city's microscale features, population density, and human lifestyle patterns, it is necessary to study urban areas over globe.

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗
NASA NTRS2004

Characterization of Transport Errors in Chemical Forecasts from a Global Tropospheric Chemical Transport Model

We propose a new methodology to characterize errors in the representation of transport processes in chemical transport models. We constrain the evaluation of a global three-dimensional chemical transport model (GEOS-CHEM) with an extended dataset of carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations obtained during the Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) aircraft campaign. The TRACEP mission took place over the western Pacific, a region frequently impacted by continental outflow associated with different synoptic-scale weather systems (such as cold fronts) and deep convection, and thus provides a valuable dataset. for our analysis. Model simulations using both forecast and assimilated meteorology are examined. Background CO concentrations are computed as a function of latitude and altitude and subsequently subtracted from both the observed and the model datasets to focus on the ability of the model to simulate variability on a synoptic scale. Different sampling strategies (i.e., spatial displacement and smoothing) are applied along the flight tracks to search for systematic model biases. Statistical quantities such as correlation coefficient and centered root-mean-square difference are computed between the simulated and the observed fields and are further inter-compared using Taylor diagrams. We find no systematic bias in the model for the TRACE-P region when we consider the entire dataset (i.e., from the surface to 12 km ). This result indicates that the transport error in our model is globally unbiased, which has important implications for using the model to conduct inverse modeling studies. Using the First-Look assimilated meteorology only provides little improvement of the correlation, in comparison with the forecast meteorology. These general statements can be refined when the entire dataset is divided into different vertical domains, i.e., the lower troposphere (less than 2 km), the middle troposphere (2-6 km), and the upper troposphere (greater than 6 km). The best agreement between the observations and the model is found in the lower and middle troposphere. Downward displacements in the lower troposphere provide a better fit with the observed value, which could indicate a problem in the representation of boundary layer height in the model. Significant improvement is also found for downward and southward displacements in the upper troposphere. There are several potential sources of errors in our simulation of the continental outflow in the upper troposphere which could lead to such biases, including the location and/or the strength of deep convective cells as well as that of wildfires in Southeast Asia.

Bey, I.↗
NASA NTRS1998

NO(x) Concentrations in the Upper Troposphere as a Result of Lightning

Upper tropospheric NO(x) controls, in part, the distribution of ozone in this greenhouse-sensitive region of the atmosphere. Many factors control NO(x) in this region. As a result it is difficult to assess uncertainties in anthropogenic perturbations to NO from aircraft, for example, without understanding the role of the other major NO(x) sources in the upper troposphere. These include in situ sources (lightning, aircraft), convection from the surface (biomass burning, fossil fuels, soils), stratospheric intrusions, and photochemical recycling from HNO3. This work examines the separate contribution to upper tropospheric "primary" NO(x) from each source category and uses two different chemical transport models (CTMS) to represent a range of possible atmospheric transport. Because aircraft emissions are tied to particular pressure altitudes, it is important to understand whether those emissions are placed in the model stratosphere or troposphere and to assess whether the models can adequately differentiate stratospheric air from tropospheric air. We examine these issues by defining a point-by-point "tracer tropopause" in order to differentiate stratosphere from troposphere in terms of NO(x) perturbations. Both models predict similar zonal average peak enhancements of primary NO(x) due to aircraft (approx. = 10-20 parts per trillion by volume (pptv) in both January and July); however, the placement of this peak is primarily in a region of large stratospheric influence in one model and centered near the level evaluated as the tracer tropopause in the second. Below the tracer tropopause, both models show negligible NO(x) derived directly from the stratospheric source. Also, they predict a typically low background of 1 - 20 pptv NO(x) when tropospheric HNO3 is constrained to be 100 pptv of HNO3. The two models calculate large differences in the total background NO(x) (defined as the source of NO(x) from lightning + stratosphere + surface + HNO3) when using identical loss frequencies for NO(x). This difference is primarily due to differing treatments of vertical transport. An improved diagnosis of this transport that is relevant to NO(x) requires either measurements of a surface-based tracer with a substantially shorter lifetime than Rn-222 or diagnosis and mapping of tracer correlations with different source signatures. Because of differences in transport by the two models we cannot constrain the source of NO(x) from lightning through comparison of average model concentrations with observations of NO(x).

Penner, Joyce E.↗
NASA NTRS1990

A new approach to remove interorder background in high dispersion IUE images

A two dimensional Chebyshev interpolating scheme, followed by modeling of point spread functions as Voigt profiles, is proposed for final archiving IUESIPS to remove the interorder overlap from the smoothed background fluxes of high dispersion International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) images. Tests of the first and last stages of the algorithm suggest that it can give a considerably better zero point than the old IUESIPS algorithm which samples local interorder background.

Smith, Myron A.↗
NASA NTRS1996

[Two-phase Interfaces in Weak External Fields]

Our aim has been that of understanding from first principles the behavior of two-phase interfaces in the absence of gravitational constraints. This is fundamental to our ability to deal with the fluid structures that abound in the real biological, chemical, and physical world. A substantial effort was mounted to determine how familiar hydrodynamic concepts have to be modified and interpreted to make them appropriate to the multi-level structure alluded to above. This was primarily in the context of the microscopic symmetric pressure tensor, which was, for the first time, expressed in the invaluable density functional format, and the used to follow the predictions of popular microscopic models of the energetics of interfacial systems. In the course of these investigations, the previous murky relation between pressure tensor and thermodynamics was completely clarified. The process of extending thermodynamic information to interfacial dynamics was initiated along two paths. One was from the viewpoint of an inertialess lattice gas, resulting in the surprising conclusion that at this level, all transport is governed by precisely the thermodynamic free energy, albeit with a non-trivial effective particle mobility. The other aimed at understanding the fashion in which slow macroscopic motions, accounted for by a time-varying microscopic energy, generate effective hydrodynamic parameters. By examining a solvable model system, it was found that all current procedures for doing so are deficient, and suitable alleviation suggested. The major effect of this project was to set the stage for the analysis of the substantial dynamical regimes in which extensive equilibrium information provides the dominant background. This produces a smooth junction to the models of Araki and Munakata, Giacomin and Lebowitz, and Oxtoby. It is also crucial to our understanding of the complex interfacial equilibrium configurations required for intermediate stages of two-phase separation, for which the "phase-field" techniques we have been developing are uniquely effective. And it puts us within striking range of the physical experiments that can provide incisive tests of the theoretical framework.

Percus, J. K.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Nozzle Plume/Shock Interaction Experimental and Computational Sonic Boom Analyses from the NASA Ames 9- by 7-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel

A wind tunnel test and a computational study were conducted to investigate the complex interactions between a supersonic nozzle plume and shock waves of differing strengths generated from various aft surfaces typical of supersonic aircraft. These analytically-defined aft surfaces were representative of horizontal tails of various sizes, and an aft deck. CFD simulations of many proposed model configurations allowed for assessments of the detailed flow interactions of components in close proximity to the nozzle, as well as assessments of the nozzle jet flow itself. The evaluation of the computational results for many candidate configurations guided the design of model components. The interactions of the waveforms from these surfaces with the jet exhaust plume can have significant adverse effects on the loudness of the sonic boom if the surfaces are not carefully integrated into an aircraft design. The greatest discrepancy in estimating sonic boom loudness for low-boom flight vehicles is currently in predicting the signatures from the aft part of an aircraft, including the interactions with the plume flow. The objectives of this test were to gain a better understanding of these interactions, and to provide a detailed experimental database from multiple sources for use as validation cases for CFD tool development. The subject test was run in the NASA Ames 9- by 7-Ft Supersonic Wind Tunnel in February 2016 at Mach numbers of 1.6 and 2.0, and was funded by the NASA Commercial Supersonics Technology (CST) Project. The nozzle flow was provided by high-pressure air (HPA) pumped through the model, and pressure signature data were acquired with the NASA 14-inch sonic boom pressure rail. The rail measured the locations of the shocks and expansions at various distances and off-track angles from the model. This enabled the impact of the nozzle plume/shock interactions on the near- and mid-field sonic boom pressure waveforms to be quantified. Schlieren images of the flow field around and behind the model were obtained with an RBOS (Retroreflective Background-Oriented Schlieren) technique to determine the origins of the shock and expansion waves, to identify the shape and boundaries of the plume, and to determine the changes in incoming and exiting waveforms within the plume. A total pressure rake was positioned closely behind the model nozzle in order to measure the total pressure profiles of the flow above, within, and below the nozzle exhaust. Model angles and positions in the tunnel were measured by photogrammetry using two cameras since the lack of a model force balance prevented the measurement of model deflections under load.Navier-Stokes computations using two different CFD codes were compared to the experimental sonic boom pressure signature data, and the rake total pressure data in the plume. A computational schlieren technique was used to compare the computed flow field with the RBOS images. The computational results were also used to complement the test data with flow field quantities that could not be measured, such as Mach number and pressure distributions to distinguish shock waves and expansion waves.

sonic boom↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model-independent constraints on Ωm and H ( z ) from the link between geometry and growth

ABSTRACT We constrain the expansion history of the Universe and the cosmological matter density fraction in a model-independent way by exclusively making use of the relationship between background and perturbations under a minimal set of assumptions. We do so by employing a Gaussian process to model the expansion history of the Universe from present time to the recombination era. The expansion history and the cosmological matter density are then constrained using recent measurements from cosmic chronometers, Type-Ia supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillations, and redshift-space distortion data. Our results show that the evolution in the reconstructed expansion history is compatible with the Planck 2018 prediction at all redshifts. The current data considered in this study can constrain a Gaussian process on H(z) to an average $9.4 {{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ precision across redshift. We find Ωm = 0.224 ± 0.066, lower but statistically compatible with the Planck 2018 cosmology. Finally, the combination of future DESI measurements with the CMB measurement considered in this work holds the promise of $8 {{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ average constraints on a model-independent expansion history as well as a five-fold tighter Ωm constraint using the methodology developed in this work.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗