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At least 1,027 records · Page 57

A study of solar flare electron events from October 1972 through December 1974 from Imp 7 and 8

Data from the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory Charged Particle Measurement Experiment aboard Imp H and J were searched for solar flare produced intensity increases in greater than 0.2-MeV electrons during the 26-month period from October 1972 through December 1974. Of the 44 solar electron events found during this period, 31 were isolated for a detailed statistical study. Systematics among the characteristics of the electron profiles (e.g., peak intensity times and count rates) and those of the associated flares (e.g., H-alpha onset times, H-alpha importance class, heliocentric coordinates, etc.) were examined, and the significant results are presented in several scatter plots. The results reveal that the time delay between the flare onset and the arrival of the peak electron intensity at 1 AU (time to maximum) is a function of the flare's deviation in heliolongitude from the solar region which was well connected to the earth via a magnetic flux tube; the well-connected flares produced electron intensity maxima in the least time.

Decker, R. B.↗

Gain optimization with non-linear controls

An algorithm has been developed for the analysis and design of controls for non-linear systems. The technical approach is to use statistical linearization to model the non-linear dynamics of a system by a quasi-Gaussian model. A covariance analysis is performed to determine the behavior of the dynamical system and a quadratic cost function. Expressions for the cost function and its derivatives are determined so that numerical optimization techniques can be applied to determine optimal feedback laws. The primary application for this paper is centered about the design of controls for nominally linear systems but where the controls are saturated or limited by fixed constraints. The analysis is general, however, and numerical computation requires only that the specific non-linearity be considered in the analysis.

Slater, G. L.↗

Variability of X-ray emission from OB stars

The variability in soft X-ray emission of 12 OB stars is studied. Two different methods of analysis, one more suitable for detecting short-term variations, the other aimed at detecting long time-scale variations, are applied to all stars in the sample. The long-term variability analysis shows that Cyg-OB2 8A Zeta Pup and Delta Ori exhibit significant count rate variations between different data sections. Similar variations are marginally detected in 15 Mon; the count rate variations for the other eight stars are consistent with statistical fluctuations. The light curve of Cyg-OB2 8A suggests the existence of two different emission levels. The short-term variability analysis detects marginal variability in Tau Sco with an effective amplitude of about 30 percent and a time scale of about 50 s. The upper limits to the effective short-term variability amplitude for all other sample stars are in the 10-30 percent range.

Collura, A.↗

Application of Time-resolved PIV to Supersonic Hot Jets

This presentation lays out the ground-breaking work at bringing high-speed (25kHz) particle image velocimetry (PIV) to bear on measurements of noise-producing turbulence in hot jets. The work is still in progress in that the tremendous amount of data obtained are still be analyzed, but the method has been validated and initial results of interest to jet noise modeling have been obtained. After a brief demonstration of the validation process used on the data, results are shown for hot jets at different temperatures and Mach numbers. Comparisons of first order statistics show the relative indifference of the turbulence to the presence of shocks and independence to jet temperature. What does come out is that when the shock-containing jets are in a screech mode the turbulence is highly elevated, showing the importance of removing screech phenomena from model-scale jets before applying findings to full-scale aircraft which typically do not contain shocks.

Bridges, James↗

Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Quarterly Report Third Quarter FY · 13

The AMU team worked on seven tasks for their customers: (1) Ms. Crawford completed the objective lightning forecast tool for east -central Florida airports and delivered the tool and the final report to the customers. (2) Ms. Shafer continued work for Vandenberg Air Force Base on an automated tool to relate pressure gradients to peak winds. (3) Dr. Huddleston updated and delivered the tool that shows statistics on the timing of the first lightning strike of the day in the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) area. (4) Dr. Bauman continued work on a severe weather forecast tool focused on the Eastern Range (ER). (5) Ms. Crawford acquired the software and radar data needed to create a dual-Doppler analysis over the east-central Florida and KSC/CCAFS areas. (6) Mr. Decker continued developing a wind pairs database for the Launch Services Program to use when evaluating upper-level winds for launch vehicles. (7) Dr. Watson continued work to assimilate observational data into the high-resolution model configurations she created for Wallops Flight Facility and the ER.

Bauman, William↗

Sensory redundancy management: The development of a design methodology for determining threshold values through a statistical analysis of sensor output data

Sensor redundancy management (SRM) requires a system which will detect failures and reconstruct avionics accordingly. A probability density function to determine false alarm rates, using an algorithmic approach was generated. Microcomputer software was developed which will print out tables of values for the cummulative probability of being in the domain of failure; system reliability; and false alarm probability, given a signal is in the domain of failure. The microcomputer software was applied to the sensor output data for various AFT1 F-16 flights and sensor parameters. Practical recommendations for further research were made.

Scalzo, F.↗

Monte Carlo analysis of satellite debris footprint dispersion

A comprehensive study is performed to investigate satellite debris impact point dispersion using a combination of Monte Carlo statistical analysis and parametric methods. The Monte Carlo technique accounts for nonlinearities in the entry point dispersion, which is represented by a covariance matrix of position and velocity errors. Because downrange distance of impact is a monotonic function of debris ballistic coefficient, a parametric method is useful for determining dispersion boundaries. The scheme is applied in the present analysis to estimate the Skylab footprint dispersions for a controlled reentry. A significant increase in the footprint dispersion is noticed for satellite breakup above a 200,000-ft altitude. A general discussion of the method used for analysis is presented together with some typical results obtained for the Skylab deboost mission, which was designed before NASA abandoned plans for a Skylab controlled reentry.

Rao, P. P.↗

A reinvestigation of the rate of the C/+/ + H2 radiative association reaction

It is noted that new experimental results and statistical theories have prompted a reinvestigation of the rate coefficient of the interstellar reaction in which C(+) + H2 yields CH2(+) + h(nu) in the 10-100 K temperature range. The results presented here indicate a rate coefficient between 10 to the -16 and 10 to the -15 cu cm/s at all temperatures studied. In applying the modified thermal and phase space theories, it is expected that they will be as accurate as for radiative association as for three-body association, provided the ab initio value for the radiative decay rate is correct. It is expected that the calculated values of the rate coefficient will be accurate to within an order of magnitude and will have the correct temperature dependence.

Herbst, E.↗

Formulation and implementation of nonstationary adaptive estimation algorithm with applications to air-data reconstruction

The dynamics model and data sources used to perform air-data reconstruction are discussed, as well as the Kalman filter. The need for adaptive determination of the noise statistics of the process is indicated. The filter innovations are presented as a means of developing the adaptive criterion, which is based on the true mean and covariance of the filter innovations. A method for the numerical approximation of the mean and covariance of the filter innovations is presented. The algorithm as developed is applied to air-data reconstruction for the space shuttle, and data obtained from the third landing are presented. To verify the performance of the adaptive algorithm, the reconstruction is also performed using a constant covariance Kalman filter. The results of the reconstructions are compared, and the adaptive algorithm exhibits better performance.

Whitmore, S. A.↗

Formulation and implementation of nonstationary adaptive estimation algorithm with applications to air-data reconstruction

The dynamics model and data sources used to perform air-data reconstruction are discussed, as well as the Kalman filter. The need for adaptive determination of the noise statistics of the process is indicated. The filter innovations are presented as a means of developing the adaptive criterion, which is based on the true mean and covariance of the filter innovations. A method for the numerical approximation of the mean and covariance of the filter innovations is presented. The algorithm as developed is applied to air-data reconstruction for the Space Shuttle, and data obtained from the third landing are presented. To verify the performance of the adaptive algorithm, the reconstruction is also performed using a constant covariance Kalman filter. The results of the reconstructions are compared, and the adaptive algorithm exhibits better performance.

Whitmore, S. A.↗

Detection of chaotic determinism in time series from randomly forced maps

Time series from biological system often display fluctuations in the measured variables. Much effort has been directed at determining whether this variability reflects deterministic chaos, or whether it is merely "noise". Despite this effort, it has been difficult to establish the presence of chaos in time series from biological sytems. The output from a biological system is probably the result of both its internal dynamics, and the input to the system from the surroundings. This implies that the system should be viewed as a mixed system with both stochastic and deterministic components. We present a method that appears to be useful in deciding whether determinism is present in a time series, and if this determinism has chaotic attributes, i.e., a positive characteristic exponent that leads to sensitivity to initial conditions. The method relies on fitting a nonlinear autoregressive model to the time series followed by an estimation of the characteristic exponents of the model over the observed probability distribution of states for the system. The method is tested by computer simulations, and applied to heart rate variability data.

Non-NASA Center↗

Uncertainty Analysis of Slug Calorimeters in the HyMETS Arc-Jet Facility

The objective of this work is to perform an uncertainty analysis of the deduced stagnation heat flux environment on a slug calorimeter for conditions that span the performance envelope of the Hypersonic Materials Environmental Test System arc-jet facility located at NASA Langley Research Center. Analytical solutions are developed for boundary-value problems on the slug element accounting for non-ideal effects, including spatial variation in the slug heat flux, multi-dimensional thermal conduction, and back-face losses, which departs from the state-of-the-art method derived from the American Society of Testing and Materials. Boundary-value problem definitions are informed by preliminary finite element thermal analysis of the slug calorimeter assembly (including both slug and housing) and just the slug element. The analytical solutions are presented in a general sense and in a truncated form from error analysis. Results are shown in optimizing and validating the analytical models against available slug back-face thermal data. The optimization results indicate that the appropriate epistemic uncertainty of the deduced stagnation heat flux on the slug calorimeter is at most±2.5% for both a high-and low-enthalpy test condition. In addition, a numerical approach is used to determine the aleatory (probabilistic) uncertainty component in the slug stagnation heat flux by applying a marching least-squares slope routine through the steady-state portion of the slug back-face thermal response. Results indicate a compromise between the number of samples and the filter frequency of slug back-face thermal data points when evaluating the standard deviation of the deduced stagnation heat flux statistics. When combining the mixed uncertainty, both aleatory and epistemic, the interval of uncertainty in the deduced stagnation heat flux is determined to be up to ±4%, which is at least a 60% reduction from the standard uncertainty used in the state-of-the-art method.

uncertainty↗

Personal Computer (PC) based image processing applied to fluid mechanics

A PC based image processing system was employed to determine the instantaneous velocity field of a two-dimensional unsteady flow. The flow was visualized using a suspension of seeding particles in water, and a laser sheet for illumination. With a finite time exposure, the particle motion was captured on a photograph as a pattern of streaks. The streak pattern was digitized and processed using various imaging operations, including contrast manipulation, noise cleaning, filtering, statistical differencing, and thresholding. Information concerning the velocity was extracted from the enhanced image by measuring the length and orientation of the individual streaks. The fluid velocities deduced from the randomly distributed particle streaks were interpolated to obtain velocities at uniform grid points. For the interpolation a simple convolution technique with an adaptive Gaussian window was used. The results are compared with a numerical prediction by a Navier-Stokes computation.

Cho, Y.-C.↗

Geo-Statistical Approach to Estimating Asteroid Exploration Parameters

NASA's vision for space exploration calls for a human visit to a near earth asteroid (NEA). Potential human operations at an asteroid include exploring a number of sites and analyzing and collecting multiple surface samples at each site. In this paper two approaches to formulation and scheduling of human exploration activities are compared given uncertain information regarding the asteroid prior to visit. In the first approach a probability model was applied to determine best estimates of mission duration and exploration activities consistent with exploration goals and existing prior data about the expected aggregate terrain information. These estimates were compared to a second approach or baseline plan where activities were constrained to fit within an assumed mission duration. The results compare the number of sites visited, number of samples analyzed per site, and the probability of achieving mission goals related to surface characterization for both cases.

probability↗

Alternating bending-steady torque fatigue reliability

Results generated by three unique fatigue reliability research machines which can apply alternating-bending loads combined with steady torque are presented. Six-inch long, AISI steel, grooved specimens with a stress concentration factor of 1.42 and Rockwell C 35/40 hardness were subjected to various combinations of these loads and cycled to failure. The generated cycles-to-failure and staircase-testing data are statistically analyzed to develop distributional S-N and Goodman diagrams. Various failure theories are investigated to determine which one best represents the data. The effect of the groove and of the various combined bending-torsion loads on the finite and endurance life strength of such components, as well as on the Goodman diagram, are determined. Design applications are presented.

Kececioglu, D.↗

A statistical technique for processing radio interferometer data

The output of a radio interferometer is the Fourier transform of the object under investigation. Due to the limited coverage of the Fourier plane, the reconstruction of the image of the source is blurred by the beam of the synthesized array. A maximum-likelihood processing technique is described which uses the statistical properties of the received noise-like signals. This technique has been used extensively in the processing of large-aperture seismic arrays. This inversion method results in a synthesized beam that is more uniform, has lower sidelobes, and higher resolution than the normal Fourier transform methods. The maximum-likelihood method algorithm was applied successfully to very long baseline and short baseline interferometric data.

Papadopoulos, G. D.↗

Combined bending-torsion fatigue reliability. III

Results generated by three, unique fatigue reliability research machines which can apply reversed bending loads combined with steady torque are presented. AISI 4340 steel, grooved specimens with a stress concentration factor of 1.42 and 2.34, and Rockwell C hardness of 35/40 were subjected to various combinations of these loads and cycled to failure. The generated cycles-to-failure and stress-to-failure data are statistically analyzed to develop distributional S-N and Goodman diagrams. Various failure theories are investigated to determine which one represents the data best. The effects of the groove, and of the various combined bending-torsion loads, on the S-N and Goodman diagrams are determined. Two design applications are presented which illustrate the direct useability and value of the distributional failure governing strength and cycles-to-failure data in designing for specified levels of reliability and in predicting the reliability of given designs.

Kececioglu, D.↗

Recent thermal models of the chromosphere

The paper describes recent research on the calculation of solar chromospheric models. The models included here are based on the observed spectrum, and on the assumption of hydrostatic equilibrium. The calculations depend on realistic solutions of the radiative transfer and statistical equilibrium equations for optically thick lines and continua, and on including the effects of large numbers of lines throughout the spectrum. Although spectroheliograms show that the structure of the chromosphere is highly complex, one-dimensional models of particular features are reasonably successful in matching observed spectra. There has been considerable recent progress in applying such models to the interpretation of chromospheric observations.

Avrett, E. H.↗