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At least 1,027 records · Page 57

Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C

A new temperature goal of “holding the increase in global average temperature well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels” has been established in the Paris Agreement, which calls for an understanding of climate risk under 1.5 and 2.0°C warming scenarios. Here, we evaluated the effects of climate change on growth and productivity of three major crops (i.e. maize, wheat, rice) in China during 2106–2115 in warming scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0°C using a method of ensemble simulation with well-validated Model to capture the Crop–Weather relationship over a Large Area (MCWLA) family crop models, their 10 sets of optimal crop model parameters and 70 climate projections from four global climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Regime shifts in Arctic terrestrial hydrology manifested from impacts of climate warming

Abstract. Anthropogenic warming in the Arctic is causing hydrological cycle intensification and permafrost thaw, with implications for flows of water, carbon, and energy from terrestrial biomes to coastal zones. To better understand the likely impacts of these changes, we used a hydrology model driven by meteorological data from atmospheric reanalysis and two global climate models for the period 1980–2100. The hydrology model accounts for soil freeze–thaw processes and was applied across the pan-Arctic drainage basin. The simulations point to greater changes over northernmost areas of the basin underlain by permafrost and to the western Arctic. An acceleration of simulated river discharge over the recent past is commensurate with trends drawn from observations and reported in other studies. Between early-century (2000–2019) and late-century (2080–2099) periods, the model simulations indicate an increase in annual total runoff of 17 %–25 %, while the proportion of runoff emanating from subsurface pathways is projected to increase by 13 %–30 %, with the largest changes noted in summer and autumn and across areas with permafrost. Most notably, runoff contributions to river discharge shift to northern parts of the Arctic Basin that contain greater amounts of soil carbon. Each season sees an increase in subsurface runoff; spring is the only season where surface runoff dominates the rise in total runoff, and summer experiences a decline in total runoff despite an increase in the subsurface component. The greater changes that are seen in areas where permafrost exists support the notion that increased soil thaw is shifting hydrological contributions to more subsurface flow. The manifestations of warming, hydrological cycle intensification, and permafrost thaw will impact Arctic terrestrial and coastal environments through altered river flows and the materials they transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Heat sources within the Greenland Ice Sheet: dissipation, temperate paleo-firn and cryo-hydrologic warming

Ice temperature profiles from the Greenland Ice Sheet contain information on the deformation history, past climates and recent warming. We present full-depth temperature profiles from two drill sites on a flow line passing through Swiss Camp, West Greenland. Numerical modeling reveals that ice temperatures are considerably higher than would be expected from heat diffusion and dissipation alone. The possible causes for this extra heat are evaluated using a Lagrangian heat flow model. The model results reveal that the observations can be explained with a combination of different processes: enhanced dissipation (strain heating) in ice-age ice, temperate paleo-firn, and cryo-hydrologic warming in deep crevasses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Warm boundary-layer cloud properties and cloud susceptibilities product at the ARM ENA observatory

Cloud liquid water path, albedo, and cloud fraction susceptibilities for marine warm boundary-layer clouds are quantified using the Meteosat retrieved cloud microphysical properties at the ARM Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) observatory in the Azores. The Meteosat cloud retrievals are based on the methods applied by the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project, which are specifically tailored to support the ARM user facility over the ARM ground-based observation sites (enavisstpx2dm11minnisX1.c1). Cloud susceptibility is quantified as the slope between cloud properties and Nd within a 1-degree-by-1-degree grid box at each satellite time step using a least-square regression. To reduce uncertainties associated with the adiabatic assumption in the Nd retrieval, for each cloud object, we exclude cloudy pixels at the cloud edge, defined as those adjacent to cloud-free pixels. To minimize influence of cloud heterogeneity and co-variability on the retrieved cloud susceptibility, cloud properties are averaged to 0.25-degree resolution using the 3-km pixel-level retrieval, and the 1-degree cloud susceptibilities are estimated using the smoothed data. Cloud type classification is applied to distinct cloud object, labeling all contiguous cloudy pixels. Marine warm boundary-layer clouds are defined as clouds with 90% of cloud tops below 3km, and Meteosat retrieved cloud phase as liquid.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Zero Power Warming (ZPW) Chamber Prototype Measurements, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2016

Data were collected during one season of prototyping associated with the development of a passive warming technology. An experimental chamber, the Zero Power Warming (ZPW) chamber, was fitted with apparatus to modulate venting of a field enclosure and enhance elevation of air temperature by solar radiation. The ZPW chamber was compared with a control chamber (Control) and an ambient open air plot (Ambient). The control chamber was identical to the ZPW chamber but lacked the apparatus necessary to modulate venting, the chamber vents in the control chamber were fixed open for the majority of the trial period. The three plots were located over Carex aquatilis growing in an area of moderately degraded permafrost. Chambers were placed on the same footprints that were used for a similar exercise in 2015 (no data) and therefore those plots had experienced some thaw and degradation prior to 2016. The following data were collected for 80 days at 1 minute intervals from within two chambers and an ambient plot: solar input, chamber venting, air temperature, relative humidity, soil temperature (at 5, 10 and 15 cm), soil moisture, downward and upward NIR. CO2 concentration within the chambers and of the ambient air plot was collected at 1 minute intervals over a 62 hour period in the middle of the growing season. This dataset contains six csv files and one pdf file.The documentation may refer to a ZPW-metadata.xlsx file. This file was split into two csv files: ZPW-metadata.csv and ZPW-metadata-instrumentation.csv.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NGEE Arctic Soil Micro-warming Experiment Temperature Profiles, Council Road Mile Marker 71, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2017-2019

The reported soil temperature profile measurements (24 locations - 2 probes with 5 and 6 thermistors, respectively - Fig. 1 and Fig. 2) were initiated as part of a soil micro-warming experiment at the Council Road Mile Marker 71 Site (CN_MM71) in September 2017. From 2017 through August 2019, these were measurements of ambient pre-treatment plot conditions. This tussock tundra site (with underlying permafrost) experiences annual frost heaving that causes a vertical movement of the ground surface, hence causing some of the upper most temperature thermistors to be at surface level or above ground and recorded therefore air temperatures near the surface and not below ground soil temperature (see section on Quality Assurance). After August 2019, these measurements ended in preparation for transitioning to the experimental warming of individual plots. The reported temperature data are nominally 3-hour averages of measurements made at varying frequencies (3-hour maximum) with frequencies that depended upon power (solar) availability to operate the sensors (see section in documentation on Methods). The number of values and the standard deviation for each 3-hour average (where appropriate) are also provided. These measurements are located near the NGEE-Arctic CO2 and CH4 eddy covariance tower at the Council Road Site (US-NGC: NGEE Arctic Council, https://ameriflux.lbl.gov/sites/siteinfo/US-NGC#overview) and auxiliary data at https://doi.org/10.5440/1526749. This dataset contains four *.csv files and one *.pdf file. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ocean Warming: From the Surface to the Deep in Observations and Models

The ocean is the primary heat sink of the global climate system. Since 1971, it has been responsible for storing more than 90% of the excess heat added to the Earth system by anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions. Adding this heat to the ocean contributes substantially to sea level rise and affects vital marine ecosystems. Considering the global ocean’s large role in ongoing climate variability and change, it is a good place to focus in order to understand what observed changes have occurred to date and, by using models, what future changes might arise under continued anthropogenic forcing of the climate system. While sparse measurement coverage leads to enhanced uncertainties with long-term historical estimates of change, modern measurements are beginning to provide the clearest picture yet of ongoing global ocean change. Observations show that the ocean is warming from the near-surface through to the abyss, a conclusion that is strengthened with each new analysis. In this assessment, we revisit here observation- and model-based estimates of ocean warming from the industrial era to the present and show a consistent, full-depth pattern of change over the observed record that is likely to continue at an ever-increasing pace if effective actions to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions are not taken.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Projections of Hourly Meteorology by Balancing Authority Based on the IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulations

This dataset contains 40 years (1980-2019) of historical hourly meteorology and 80 years (2020-2099) of projected hourly meteorology for 54 Balancing Authorities (BAs) in the conterminous United States. Details about the scenarios and variables included in this dataset are in the readme.pdf file. This dataset is derived from the IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) simulations (https://doi.org/10.57931/1885756). More details on the TGW approach can be found at: https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/. If you use this dataset please also cite the raw TGW dataset (Jones, A. D., Rastogi, D., Vahmani, P., Stansfield, A., Reed, K., Thurber, T., Ullrich, P., & Rice, J. S. (2022). IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulation Datasets (v1.0.0) [Data set]. MSD-LIVE Data Repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/1885756). To go from the TGW data to these BA-level aggregated data we first averaged the raw gridded data by county in the United States. That intermediate data step is also stored in MSD-LIVE (https://doi.org/10.57931/1960548). We then population-weight the county-level hourly data in order to create population-weighted meteorology time series for each BA. Historical populations are from the United States Census Bureau and the evolving future populations are based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 3 and 5. The four climate scenarios crossed with the two SSPs yield eight different future projections for each BA: rcp45cooler_ssp3, rcp45cooler_ssp5, rcp45hotter_ssp3, rcp45hotter_ssp5, rcp85cooler_ssp3, rcp85cooler_ssp5, rcp85hotterssp3, rcp85hotterssp5. For the historical period and each of the eight future scenarios the dataset has hourly estimates of the population-weighted average of five meteorological variables: Temperature, specific humidity, shortwave radiation, longwave radiation, and wind speed. All times are in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). The code to go from the raw TGW data to county-level and then BA-level projections is available at: https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/im3components/tree/main/im3components/wrf_to_tell.

Balancing Authority↗

Projections of Hourly Meteorology by County Based on the IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulations

This dataset contains 40 years (1980-2019) of historical hourly meteorology and 80 years (2020-2099) of projected hourly meteorology for each county in the conterminous United States. Details about the scenarios and variables included in this dataset are in the readme.pdf file. This dataset is derived from the IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) simulations (https://doi.org/10.57931/1885756). More details on the TGW approach can be found at: https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/. If you use this dataset please also cite the raw TGW dataset (Jones, A. D., Rastogi, D., Vahmani, P., Stansfield, A., Reed, K., Thurber, T., Ullrich, P., & Rice, J. S. (2022). IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulation Datasets (v1.0.0) [Data set]. MSD-LIVE Data Repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/1885756). The four future climate scenarios in the TGW data are: rcp45cooler, rcp45hotter, rcp85cooler, and rcp85hotter. For the historical period and each of the four future scenarios the dataset has hourly estimates of the spatial-average of six meteorological variables for each county: Temperature, specific humidity, shortwave radiation, longwave radiation, and the U (east-west) and V (north-south) components of the wind speed. Times for each file are in the filename and all times are in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). Counties are identified by their Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) code. The mapping between counties and FIPS codes is provided in the state_and_county_fips_codes.csv file. The code to go from the raw TGW data to county-level projections is available at: https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/im3components/tree/main/im3components/wrf_to_tell.

County↗

Singular perturbation methods and the warm plasma model

The application of techniques of the singular perturbation theory to the analysis of warm plasma is discussed. Typically, the cold plasma model can be applied over wide ranges of parameters and only over narrow ranges forming so-called boundary layers is the warm plasma model used. Simplified equations can be used and the solutions matched on both sides of the layer's boundary. Simple examples to illustrate the solution are presented. The analysis confirms that some results are highly sensitive to the values of: (1) wire radius or gap size for an antenna, (2) temperature of the medium, and (3) incident angle of a plane wave.

Lee, S. W.↗

Lagrangian description of warm plasmas

Efforts are described to extend the averaged Lagrangian method of describing small signal wave propagation and nonlinear wave interaction, developed by earlier workers for cold plasmas, to the more general conditions of warm collisionless plasmas, and to demonstrate particularly the effectiveness of the method in analyzing wave-wave interactions. The theory is developed for both the microscopic description and the hydrodynamic approximation to plasma behavior. First, a microscopic Lagrangian is formulated rigorously, and expanded in terms of perturbations about equilibrium. Two methods are then described for deriving a hydrodynamic Lagrangian. In the first of these, the Lagrangian is obtained by velocity integration of the exact microscopic Lagrangian. In the second, the expanded hydrodynamic Lagrangian is obtained directly from the expanded microscopic Lagrangian. As applications of the microscopic Lagrangian, the small-signal dispersion relations and the coupled mode equations are derived for all possible waves in a warm infinite, weakly inhomogeneous magnetoplasma, and their interactions are examined.

Kim, H.↗

Warm gas TVC design study

A warm gas thrust vector control system was studied to optimize the injection geometry for a specific engine configuration, and an injection valve was designed capable of meeting the base line requirements. To optimize injection geometry, studies were made to determine the performance effects of varying injection location, angle, port size, and port configuration. Having minimized the injection flow rate required, a warm gas valve was designed to handle the required flow. A direct drive hydraulic servovalve capable of operating with highly contaminated hydraulic fluid was designed. The valve is sized to flow 15 gpm at 3000 psia and the direct drive feature is capable of applying a spool force of 200 pounds. The baseline requirements are the development of 6 deg of thrust vector control utilizing 2000 F (total temperature) gas for 180 seconds on a 1.37 million pound thrust engine burning LOX and RP-1 at a chamber pressure of 250 psia with a 155 inch long conical nozzle having a 68 inch diameter throat and a 153 inch diameter exit.

Moorhead, S. B., Jr.↗

Analysis of data from spacecraft (stratospheric warmings)

Investigations involved a search through existing literature and data to obtain case histories for the six or more stratospheric warmings that occurred in April - May 1969, June - July 1969, August 1969, December 1969 - January 1970, December 1970 - January 1971, and January 1973 - February 1973. For each of these warmings the following steps have been taken in preparation for analysis: (1) defining the nature of the problem; (2) literature search of stratwarmings and solar-terrestrial phenomens; and (3) file of data sources, especially stratospheric temperatures (radiances) and geophysical indices.

Source record↗

Behavior of the sodium and hydroxyl nighttime emissions during a stratospheric warming

The behavior of the sodium and hydroxyl nighttime emissions during a stratospheric warming has been studied principally by use of data from the airglow photometers on the OGO-4 satellite. It was found that during the late stages of a major warming, both emissions increase appreciably, with the sodium emission returning to normal levels prior to the decrease in hydroxyl emission. The emission behaviors are attributed to temperature and density variations from 70 to 94 km, and a one-dimensional hydrostatic model for that altitude range is used to calculate the effects on the emissions and on the mesospheric ozone densities.

Walker, J. D.↗

Stratospheric warmings in the Southern Hemisphere deduced from satellite radiation data, 1969-73

The investigation is largely based on radiation data from the vertical temperature profile radiometers on the satellite NOAA 2. The physical-statistical interpretation of the radiance data is considered. Aspects regarding the nonuniqueness of the minor warming in August 1973 are discussed. It is pointed out that conditions leading to major warmings in the Northern Hemisphere were not satisfied in the Southern Hemisphere during the period from 1969 to 1973.

Quiroz, R. S.↗

Turbulent transport model of wind shear in thunderstorm gust fronts and warm fronts

A model of turbulent flow in the atmospheric boundary layer was used to simulate the low-level wind and turbulence profiles associated with both local thunderstorm gust fronts and synoptic-scale warm fronts. Dimensional analyses of both type fronts provided the physical scaling necessary to permit normalized simulations to represent fronts for any temperature jump. The sensitivity of the thunderstorm gust front to five different dimensionless parameters as well as a change from axisymmetric to planar geometry was examined. The sensitivity of the warm front to variations in the Rossby number was examined. Results of the simulations are discussed in terms of the conditions which lead to wind shears which are likely to be most hazardous for aircraft operations.

Lewellen, W. S.↗

Microscopic Lagrangian description of warm plasmas. I - Linear wave propagation. II - Nonlinear wave interactions

It is pointed out that the conventional iterative analysis of nonlinear plasma wave phenomena, which involves a direct use of Maxwell's equations and the equations describing the particle dynamics, leads to formidable theoretical and algebraic complexities, especially for warm plasmas. As an effective alternative, the Lagrangian method may be applied. It is shown how this method may be used in the microscopic description of small-signal wave propagation and in the study of nonlinear wave interactions. The linear theory is developed for an infinite, homogeneous, collisionless, warm magnetoplasma. A summary is presented of a perturbation expansion scheme described by Galloway and Kim (1971), and Lagrangians to third order in perturbation are considered. Attention is given to the averaged-Lagrangian density, the action-transfer and coupled-mode equations, and the general solution of the coupled-mode equations.

Kim, H.↗

On self-consistent waves and their stability in warm plasma. I - Construction of the self-consistent waves

Clemmow's (1974) work is extended to include the case of large-amplitude self-consistent waves in warm plasmas both with and without a constant embedded magnetic field. Attention is given to determining the structure and basic properties of large-amplitude self-consistent waves in a warm plasma in the presence of a constant embedded magnetic field. It is shown that the class of large-amplitude self-consistent waves found by Clemmow for a cold plasma can be extended to allow for a thermal spread in the particles' motions. Some of the interesting variations and dependences of such waves with a constant embedded magnetic field are emphasized.

Lee, M. A.↗