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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

The Simons Observatory: impact of bandpass, polarization angle and calibration uncertainties on small-scale power spectrum analysis

We study the effects due to mismatches in passbands, polarization angles, and temperature and polarization calibrations in the context of the upcoming cosmic microwave background experiment Simons Observatory (SO). Using the SO multi-frequency likelihood, we estimate the bias and the degradation of constraining power in cosmological and astrophysical foreground parameters assuming different levels of knowledge of the instrumental effects. We find that incorrect but reasonable assumptions about the values ofall the systematics examined here can have significant effects on cosmologicalanalyses, hence requiring marginalization approaches at the likelihood level.When doing so, we find that the most relevant effect is due to bandpass shifts. When marginalizing over them, the posteriors of parameters describing astrophysical microwave foregrounds (such as radio point sources or dust) get degraded, while cosmological parameters constraints are not significantly affected.Marginalization over polarization angles with up to 0.25$^{°}$ uncertainty causes an irrelevant bias ≲ 0.05 σ in all parameters.Marginalization over calibration factors in polarization broadens the constraints on the effective number of relativistic degrees of freedom N$_{eff}$ by a factor 1.2, interpreted here as a proxy parameter for non standard model physics targeted by high-resolution CMB measurements.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Decarbonizing US passenger vehicle transport under electrification and automation uncertainty has a travel budget

Abstract The transportation sector is at the beginning of a transition represented by electrification, shared mobility, and automation, which could lead to either increases or decreases in total travel and energy use. Understanding the factors enabling deep decarbonization of the passenger vehicle sector is essential for planning the required infrastructure investments and technology adoption policies. We examine the requirements for meeting carbon reduction targets of 80% and higher for passenger vehicle transport in the United States (US) by midcentury under uncertainty. We model the changes needed in vehicle electrification, electricity carbon intensity, and travel demand. Since growth in fleet penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) is constrained by fleet stock turnover, we estimate the EV penetration rates needed to meet climate targets. We find for a base case level of passenger vehicle travel, midcentury deep decarbonization of US passenger transport is conditional on reducing the electricity generation carbon intensity to close to zero along with electrification of about 67% or 84% of vehicle travel to meet decarbonization targets of 80% or 90%, respectively. Higher electricity generation carbon intensity and degraded EV fuel economy due to automation would require higher levels of fleet electrification and/or further constrain the total vehicle travel allowable. Transportation deep decarbonization not only depends on electricity decarbonization, but also has a total travel budget, representing a maximum total vehicle travel threshold that still enables meeting a midcentury climate target. This makes encouraging ride sharing, reducing total vehicle travel, and increasing fuel economy in both human-driven and future automated vehicles increasingly important to deep decarbonization.

Alarfaj, Abdullah F. (ORCID:0000000157360662)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty in determining carbon dioxide removal potential of biochar

A quantitative and systematic assessment of uncertainty in life-cycle assessment is critical to informing sustainable development of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. Biochar is the most commonly sold form of CDR to date and it can be used in applications ranging from concrete to agricultural soil amendments. Previous analyses of biochar rely on modeled or estimated life-cycle data and suggest a cradle-to-gate range of 0.20–1.3 kg CO 2 net removal per kg of biomass feedstock, with the range reported driven by differences in energy consumption, pyrolysis temperature, and feedstock sourcing. Herein, we quantify the distribution of CDR possible for biochar production with a compositional life-cycle inventory model paired with scenario-aware Monte Carlo simulation in a 'best practice' (incorporating lower transportation distances, high pyrolysis temperatures, high energy efficiency, recapture of energy for drying and pyrolysis energy requirements, and co-generation of heat and electricity) and 'poor practice' (higher transportation distances, lower pyrolysis temperatures, low energy efficiency, natural gas for energy requirements, and no energy recovery) scenarios. In the best-practice scenario, cradle-to-gate CDR (which is representative of the upper limit of removal across the entire life cycle) is highly certain, with a median removal of 1.4 kg of CO 2 e/kg biomass and results in net removal across the entire distribution. In contrast, the poor-practice scenario results in median net emissions of 0.090 kg CO 2 e/kg biomass. Whether this scenario emits (66% likelihood) or removes (34% likelihood) carbon dioxide is highly uncertain. The emission intensity of energy inputs to the pyrolysis process and whether the bio-oil co-product is used as a chemical feedstock or combusted are critical factors impacting the net carbon dioxide emissions of biochar production, together responsible for 98% of the difference between the best- and poor-practice scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty analysis of Raman spectra for measuring ortho-parahydrogen compositions

Determining ortho-parahydrogen compositions at cryogenic temperatures is an important quality control for liquid hydrogen custody exchange. High orthohydrogen compositions lead to an exothermic reaction resulting in increased boil off and increased venting losses of liquid hydrogen product by either the supplier or consumer. Traditional methods for measuring ortho-parahydrogen compositions such as hot-wire anemometry, nuclear magnetic resonance, and infrared spectroscopy are typically inconvenient at best. As the number of cryogenic hydrogen systems continue to increase, there is an increased need for flexible, standardized techniques for post processing composition measurements. A Raman spectrometer implemented in the Cryo-Catalysis Hydrogen Experimental Facility (CHEF) has demonstrated incredible flexibility for composition measurements of cryogenic hydrogen flows through a wide range of temperatures and pressures with the Raman probe in-situ at cryogenic temperatures. This article analyzes the uncertainty of Raman spectroscopy data of cryogenic hydrogen equilibrated at temperatures in IONEX catalyst. Spectra from hydrogen catalyzed to the equilibrium ortho-parahydrogen composition are processed and compared to expected statistical distributions for method verification.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating probabilistic deep learning methods for uncertainty quantification of temperature downscaling

Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a promising tool for downscaling coarse-resolution climate data to high-resolution outputs, enabling improved regional climate predictions. A critical aspect of DL-based downscaling is the incorporation of uncertainty quantification (UQ), which enhances the interpretability and reliability of predictions—key factors for climate risk assessment and decision-making. This study develops a DL model to downscale 2 m temperature across the contiguous United States using reanalysis datasets. We systematically evaluate three epistemic UQ methods—deep ensembles (DEns), Monte Carlo dropout (MCD), and Flipout—based on their probabilistic accuracy, downscaling performance, sensitivity to geographical features, and computational efficiency. Results indicate that MCD generally outperforms Flipout and DEns in terms of calibration and downscaling accuracy. However, DEns demonstrate lower calibration errors in coastal regions, indicating its higher confidence within these areas. Flipout, in contrast, is more sensitive to elevation gradients and exhibits higher calibration errors in mountainous regions. Hence, the choice of UQ method for this task depends on the specific requirements of the application. For applications that prioritize overall calibration, downscaling accuracy, and computational efficiency, MCD is a strong candidate. These findings highlight the importance of selecting UQ methods based on application-specific requirements, such as geographical context and computational constraints. By addressing the trade-offs between UQ methods, this study provides actionable insights for improving the reliability, scalability, and utility of DL-based downscaling in climate science.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

Conformalized-KANs: Uncertainty Quantification with Coverage Guarantees for Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) in Scientific Machine Learning

This paper explores uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods in the context of Kolmogorov–Arnold Networks (KANs). We apply an ensemble approach to KANs to obtain a heuristic measure of UQ, enhancing interpretability and robustness in modeling complex functions. Building on this, we introduce Conformalized-KANs, which integrate conformal prediction, a distribution-free UQ technique, with KAN ensembles to generate calibrated prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage.} Extensive numerical experiments are conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of these methods, focusing particularly on the robustness and accuracy of the prediction intervals under various hyperparameter settings. We show that the conformal KAN predictions can be applied to recent extensions of KANs, including Finite Basis KANs (FBKANs) and multifideilty KANs (MFKANs). The results demonstrate the potential of our approaches to significantly improve the reliability and applicability of KANs in scientific machine learning.

• Artificial intelligence (AI) / machine learning ↗
DOE OSTI2024

GLAD-M35: a joint P and S global tomographic model with uncertainty quantification

We present our third and final generation joint P and S global adjoint tomography (GLAD) model, GLAD-M35, and quantify its uncertainty based on a low-rank approximation of the inverse Hessian. Starting from our second-generation model, GLAD-M25, we added 680 new earthquakes to the database for a total of 2160 events. New P-wave categories are included to compensate for the imbalance between P- and S-wave measurements, and we enhanced the window selection algorithm to include more major-arc phases, providing better constraints on the structure of the deep mantle and more than doubling the number of measurement windows to 40 million. Two stages of a Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (BFGS) quasi-Newton inversion were performed, each comprising five iterations. With this BFGS update history, we determine the model’s standard deviation and resolution length through randomized singular value decomposition.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Parameter inference with non-linear galaxy clustering: accounting for theoretical uncertainties

ABSTRACT We implement euclidemulator (version 1), an emulator for the non-linear correction of the matter power spectrum, into the Markov chain Monte Carlo forecasting code montepython. We compare the performance of halofit, hmcode, and euclidemulator1, both at the level of power spectrum prediction and at the level of posterior probability distributions of the cosmological parameters, for different cosmological models and different galaxy power spectrum wavenumber cut-offs. We confirm that the choice of the power spectrum predictor has a non-negligible effect on the computed sensitivities when doing cosmological parameter forecasting, even for a conservative wavenumber cut-off of $0.2\, h\, {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$. We find that euclidemulator1 is on average up to 17 per cent more sensitive to the cosmological parameters than the other two codes, with the most significant improvements being for the Hubble parameter of up to 42 per cent and the equation of state of dark energy of up to 26 per cent, depending on the case. In addition, we point out that the choice of the power spectrum predictor contributes to the risk of computing a significantly biased mean cosmology when doing parameter estimations. For the four tested scenarios we find biases, averaged over the cosmological parameters, of between 0.5σ and 2σ (from below 1σ up to 6σ for individual parameters). This paper provides a proof of concept that this risk can be mitigated by taking a well-tailored theoretical uncertainty into account as this allows to reduce the bias by a factor of 2 to 5, depending on the case under consideration, while keeping posterior credibility contours small: the standard deviations are amplified by a factor of ≤1.4 in all cases.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Non-universal stellar initial mass functions: large uncertainties in star formation rates at z ≈ 2–4 and other astrophysical probes

ABSTRACT We explore the assumption, widely used in many astrophysical calculations, that the stellar initial mass function (IMF) is universal across all galaxies. By considering both a canonical broken-power-law IMF and a non-universal IMF, we are able to compare the effect of different IMFs on multiple observables and derived quantities in astrophysics. Specifically, we consider a non-universal IMF that varies as a function of the local star formation rate, and explore the effects on the star formation rate density (SFRD), the extragalactic background light, the supernova (both core-collapse and thermonuclear) rates, and the diffuse supernova neutrino background. Our most interesting result is that our adopted varying IMF leads to much greater uncertainty on the SFRD at $z \approx 2-4$ than is usually assumed. Indeed, we find an SFRD (inferred using observed galaxy luminosity distributions) that is a factor of $\gtrsim 3$ lower than canonical results obtained using a universal IMF. Secondly, the non-universal IMF we explore implies a reduction in the supernova core-collapse rate of a factor of $\sim 2$, compared against a universal IMF. The other potential tracers are only slightly affected by changes to the properties of the IMF. We find that currently available data do not provide a clear preference for universal or non-universal IMF. However, improvements to measurements of the star formation rate and core-collapse supernova rate at redshifts $z \gtrsim 2$ may offer the best prospects for discernment.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Clustering with general photo- z uncertainties: application to Baryon Acoustic Oscillations

ABSTRACT Photometric data can be analysed using the 3D correlation function ξp to extract cosmological information via e.g. measurement of the Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO). Previous studies modeled ξp assuming a Gaussian photo-z approximation. In this work we improve the modeling by incorporating realistic photo-z distribution. We show that the position of the BAO scale in ξp is determined by the photo-z distribution and the Jacobian of the transformation. The latter diverges at the transverse scale of the separation s⊥, and it explains why ξp traces the underlying correlation function at s⊥, rather than s, when the photo-z uncertainty σz/(1+ z) ≳ 0.02. We also obtain the Gaussian covariance for ξp. Due to photo-z mixing, the covariance of ξp shows strong off-diagonal elements. The high correlation of the data causes some issues to the data fitting. None the less, we find that either it can be solved by suppressing the largest eigenvalues of the covariance or it is not directly related to the BAO. We test our BAO fitting pipeline using a set of mock catalogs. The data set is dedicated for Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) BAO analyses and includes realistic photo-z distributions. The theory template is in good agreement with mock measurement. Based on the DES Y3 mocks, ξp statistic is forecast to constrain the BAO shift parameter α to be 1.001 ± 0.023, which is well consistent with the corresponding constraint derived from the angular correlation function measurements. Thus, ξp offers a competitive alternative for the photometric data analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring theoretical uncertainties in the hydrodynamic description of relativistic heavy-ion collisions

We explore theoretical uncertainties in the hydrodynamic description of relativistic heavy-ion collisions by examining the full nonlinear causality conditions and quantifying the second-order transport coefficients' role on flow observables. The causality conditions impose physical constraints on the maximum allowed values of inverse Reynolds numbers during the hydrodynamic evolution. Including additional second-order gradient terms in the Denicol-Niemi-Molnár-Rischke (DNMR) theory significantly shrinks the casual regions compared to those in the Israel-Stewart hydrodynamics. For Au + Au collisions, we find the variations of flow observables are small with and without imposing the necessary causality conditions, suggesting a robust extraction of the quark-gluon plasma's transport coefficients in previous model-to-data comparisons. However, sizable sensitivity is present in small p + Au collisions, which poses challenges to study the small systems' collectivity.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty quantification in breakup reactions

Breakup reactions are one of the favored probes to study loosely bound nuclei, particularly those in the limit of stability forming a halo. In order to interpret such breakup experiments, the continuum discretized coupled channel method is typically used. In this study, the first Bayesian analysis of a breakup reaction model is performed. Herein we use a combination of statistical methods together with a three-body reaction model (the continuum discretized coupled channel method) to quantify the uncertainties on the breakup observables due to the parameters in the effective potential describing the loosely bound projectile of interest. The combination of tools we develop opens the path for a Bayesian analysis of not only breakup processes, but also a wide array of complex processes that require computationally intensive reaction models.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty-quantification-enabled inversion of nuclear responses

Nuclear quantum many-body methods rely on integral transform techniques to infer properties of electroweak response functions from ground-state expectation values. Retrieving the energy dependence of these responses is highly nontrivial, especially for quantum Monte Carlo methods, as it requires inverting the Laplace transform, a notoriously ill-posed problem. Here, in this work, we propose an artificial neural network architecture suitable for accurate response function reconstruction with precise estimation of the uncertainty of the inversion. We demonstrate the capabilities of this new architecture benchmarking it against maximum entropy and previously developed neural network methods designed for a similar task, paying particular attention to its robustness noise in the Euclidean

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multipole responses in fissioning nuclei and their uncertainties

Electromagnetic multipole responses are key inputs to model the structure, decay, and reactions of atomic nuclei. With the introduction of the finite amplitude method (FAM), large-scale calculations of the nuclear linear response in heavy deformed nuclei have become possible. This work provides a detailed study of multipole responses in actinide nuclei with Skyrme energy density functionals. We quantify both systematic and statistical uncertainties induced by the functional parametrization in FAM calculations. We also extend the FAM formalism to perform blocking calculations with the equal filling approximation for odd-mass and odd-odd nuclei, and analyze the impact of blocking configurations on the response. In conclusion, by examining the entire plutonium isotopic chain from the proton to the neutron drip line, we find a large variability of the response with the neutron number and study how it correlates with the deformation of the nuclear ground state.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assay-based background projection for the Majorana Demonstrator using Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation

The background index (BI) is an important quantity to project and calculate the half-life sensitivity of neutrinoless double-𝛽 decay (0⁢𝜈⁢𝛽⁢𝛽) experiments. An analysis framework is presented to calculate the BI using the specific activities, masses, and simulated efficiencies of an experiments components as distributions. This Bayesian framework includes a unified approach to combine specific activities from assay. Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation is used to build a BI distribution from the specific activity, mass, and efficiency distributions. This method is applied to the M AJORANA D EMONSTRATOR , which deployed arrays of high-purity Ge detectors enriched in 76 Ge to search for 0⁢𝜈⁢𝛽⁢𝛽. The original assay-based projection is requantified in the new framework, using the as-built geometry of the Demonstrator and additional assay information. While 47% higher than the original projection, the resulting BI of [8.95±0.36]×10 −4 cts/(keVkgyr) from the 232 Th and 238 U decay chains does not account for the higher-than-expected BI observed by the D EMONSTRATOR . Finally, this method enables us to demonstrate the statistical incompatibility between the D EMONSTRATOR 's observed background and the assay results.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Cosmology from cosmic shear and robustness to modeling uncertainty

Here, this work and its companion paper, Amon et al. [Phys. Rev. D 105, 023514 (2022)], present cosmic shear measurements and cosmological constraints from over 100 million source galaxies in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 data. We constrain the lensing amplitude parameter 𝑆 8 ≡𝜎 8 ⁢$\sqrt{Ω_{m}/0.3}$ at the 3% level in Λ⁢ CDM: 𝑆 8 =0.75⁢9$^{+0.025}_{−0.023}$ (68% CL). Our constraint is at the 2% level when using angular scale cuts that are optimized for the Λ⁢ CDM analysis: 𝑆 8 =0.77⁢2$^{+0.018}_{−0.017}$ (68% CL). With cosmic shear alone, we find no statistically significant constraint on the dark energy equation-of-state parameter at our present statistical power. We carry out our analysis blind, and compare our measurement with constraints from two other contemporary weak lensing experiments: the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS) and Hyper-Suprime Camera Subaru Strategic Program (HSC). We additionally quantify the agreement between our data and external constraints from the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). Our DES Y3 result under the assumption of Λ⁢ CDM is found to be in statistical agreement with Planck 2018, although favors a lower 𝑆 8 than the CMB-inferred value by 2.3⁢𝜎 (a 𝑝-value of 0.02). This paper explores the robustness of these cosmic shear results to modeling of intrinsic alignments, the matter power spectrum and baryonic physics. We additionally explore the statistical preference of our data for intrinsic alignment models of different complexity. The fiducial cosmic shear model is tested using synthetic data, and we report no biases greater than 0.3⁢𝜎 in the plane of 𝑆 8 ×Ω m caused by uncertainties in the theoretical models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fully ab-initio all-electron calculation of dark matter-electron scattering in crystals with evaluation of systematic uncertainties

We calculate target-material responses for dark matter–electron scattering at the all-electron level using atom-centered Gaussian basis sets. The all-electron effects enhance the material response at high momentum transfers from dark matter to electrons, q ≳ O ( 10 α m e ) , compared to calculations using conventional plane wave methods, including those used in ; this enhances the expected event rates at energy transfers E ≳ 10 eV , especially when scattering through heavy mediators. We carefully test a range of systematic uncertainties in the theory calculation, including those arising from the choice of basis set, exchange-correlation functional, number of unit cells in the Bloch sum, k -mesh, and neglect of scatters with very high momentum transfers. We provide state-of-the-art crystal form factors, focusing on silicon and germanium. Our code and results are made publicly available as a new tool, called (“”). Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Dreyer, Cyrus E.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Systematic uncertainties from higher-twist corrections in DIS at large x

We investigate the systematic uncertainties and potential biases arising from the inclusion of large- x corrections to proton and deuteron deep inelastic scattering (DIS) data in global quantum chromodynamics (QCD) analyses. Using the CTEQ-JLab framework, we examine various approaches to implementing higher-twist corrections in nucleon structure functions and off-shell PDF modifications in deuteron targets. We analyze how these components interact and influence the determination of the d -quark PDF and the neutron structure function at large x . We find that it is very important to consider isospin-dependent higher-twist corrections in order to minimize implementation biases in the extracted quantities. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗