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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Constraining Cosmology with Simulation-based inference and Optical Galaxy Cluster Abundance

We test the robustness of simulation-based inference (SBI) in the context of cosmological parameter estimation from galaxy cluster counts and masses in simulated optical datasets. We construct ``simulations'' using analytical models for the galaxy cluster halo mass function (HMF) and for the observed richness (number of observed member galaxies) to train and test the SBI method. We compare the SBI parameter posterior samples to those from an MCMC analysis that uses the same analytical models to construct predictions of the observed data vector. The two methods exhibit comparable performance, with reliable constraints derived for the primary cosmological parameters, ($\Omega_m$ and $\sigma_8$), and richness-mass relation parameters. We also perform out-of-domain tests with observables constructed from galaxy cluster-sized halos in the Quijote simulations. Again, the SBI and MCMC results have comparable posteriors, with similar uncertainties and biases. Unsurprisingly, upon evaluating the SBI method on thousands of simulated data vectors that span the parameter space, SBI exhibits worsened posterior calibration metrics in the out-of-domain application. We note that such calibration tests with MCMC is less computationally feasible and highlight the potential use of SBI to stress-test limitations of analytical models, such as in the use for constructing models for inference with MCMC.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Italian Summer Students Program at Fermilab and other US Laboratories: 40 years of education in particle physics and technology

Since 1983 the Italian groups collaborating with Fermilab (US) have been running a 2-month summer training program for Master students. While in the first year the program involved only 4 physics students, in the following years it was extended to engineering students. Many students have extended their collaboration with Fermilab with their Master Thesis and PhD. The program has involved more than 600 Italian students from more than 20 Italian universities. Each intern is supervised by a Fermilab Mentor responsible for the training program. Training programs spanned from Tevatron, CMS, Muon (g-2), Mu2e and SBN (MicroBooNE, Icarus, and SBND) and DUNE design and data analysis, development of particle detectors, design of electronic and accelerator components, development of infrastructures and software for tera-data handling, quantum computing and research on superconductive elements and accelerating cavities. In 2015 the University of Pisa included the program within its own educational programs. Summer Students are enrolled at the University of Pisa for the duration of the internship and at the end of the internship they write summary reports on their achievements. After positive evaluation by a University of Pisa Examining Board, interns are acknowledged 6 ECTS credits for their Diploma Supplement. The program was paused in 2020 and 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but it resumed in 2022. From 2022 to 2024, a total of 60 students participated in the nine-week training at Fermilab. We are currently organizing the 2025 program. This paper provides an overview of the program, which can serve as a model for other interested laboratories.

Barzi, Emanuela [Ohio State U.]↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Techniques for Informing Select Agent Designation and Decision Making

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Select Agent Program establishes a list of biological agents and toxins that potentially threaten public health and safety, the procedures governing the possession, utilization, and transfer of those agents, and training requirements for entities working with them. Every 2 years the Program reviews the select agent list, utilizing subject matter expert (SME) assessments to rank the agents. In this study, we explore the applicability of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and logic tree analysis to support the CDC Select Agent Program biennial review process, applying the approach broadly to include non-select agents to evaluate its generality. We conducted a literature search for over 70 pathogens against 15 criteria for assessing public health and bioterrorism risk and documented the findings for archiving. The most prominent data gaps were found for aerosol stability and human infectious dose by inhalation and ingestion routes. Technical review of published data and associated scoring recommendations by pathogen-specific SMEs was found to be critical for accuracy, particularly for pathogens with very few known cases, or where proxy data (e.g., from animal models or similar organisms) were used to address data gaps. Analysis of results obtained from a two-dimensional plot of weighted scores for difficulty of attack (i.e., exposure and production criteria) vs. consequences of an attack (i.e., consequence and mitigation criteria) provided greater fidelity for understanding agent placement compared to a 1-to-n ranking and was used to define a region in the upper right-hand quadrant for identifying pathogens for consideration as select agents. A sensitivity analysis varied the numerical weights attributed to various properties of the pathogens to identify potential quantitative (x and y) thresholds for classifying select agents. The results indicate while there is some clustering of agent scores to suggest thresholds, there are still pathogens that score close to any threshold, suggesting that thresholding “by eye” may not be sufficient. The sensitivity analysis indicates quantitative thresholds are plausible, and there is good agreement of the analytical results with select agent designations. A second analytical approach that applied the data using a logic tree format to rule out pathogens for consideration as select agents arrived at similar conclusions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Parameterization of Vertical Cloud Distribution from C3M and MERRA Data Using ML Method

Clouds play a key role in regulating the hydrological cycle and the Earth's radiative energy budget. However, global climate models (GCMs) with a horizontal grid spacing on the order of 100 km have limitations in representing sub-grid cloud dynamics with spatial scales on the order of 1 km, leading to potential uncertainties in cloud radiative feedback on the global scale. In our research, we will leverage the capabilities of Deep Machine Learning (DML) methods to construct parameterizations of sub-grid volumetric cloud fraction (VCF), which is the frequency of occurrence on a grid volume accumulated in the horizontal and vertical directions. Our investigation delves into the intricate relationship between VCF obtained from the NASA CALIPSO-CloudSat-CERES-MODIS (CCCM) satellite observation data and 3-D MERRA-2 reanalysis meteorological profiling data (e.g., wind, relative humidity, temperature). Through a comprehensive one-year data training utilizing the Sequence to Sequence DML method, we have successfully disentangled the complicated cloud formation dynamics across diverse meteorological conditions through a day-to-day analysis framework. Preliminary findings reveal promising statistical agreements in geographical and vertical distributions and seasonal variations of volumetric cloud fraction between ML prediction and satellite measurements. These results underscore the aptitude of our DML model to discern underlying cloud physical processes and accurately represent sub-grid cloud formation dynamics. Additionally, we have also employed trained neural network to analyze uncertainties arising from errors in meteorological data, further enhancing the robustness of our VCF parameterization.

Shan Zeng↗
NASA NTRS1991

Comments on the analysis of returned comet samples

It is argued that returned comet samples should be distributed to individual laboratories for analysis much in the same way that lunar samples are. In the context of emerging technologies, certain developments in other fields which may prove beneficial to the study of comets are reviewed, including cryogenic and tomographic techniques. It is noted that the lack of expertise in the area of cryogenic examination of comet samples is a current weakness in the ability of the extraterrestrial material community to handle comet samples and thus requires further training and preparations. Computer tomography scan images of a 'dirty snowball' are presented to illustrate the importance of developing new methods for comet sample analysis. It is suggested that microanalytic measurements of extraterrestrial samples at the atom-counting limit appear promising for the future.

Walker, Robert M.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Automated Integration of Continental-Scale Observations in Near-Real Time for Simulation and Analysis of Biosphere–Atmosphere Interactions

The National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) is a continental-scale observatory with sites across the US collecting standardized ecological observations that will operate for multiple decades. To maximize the utility of NEON data, we envision edge computing systems that gather, calibrate, aggregate, and ingest measurements in an integrated fashion. Edge systems will employ machine learning methods to cross-calibrate, gap-fill and provision data in near-real time to the NEON Data Portal and to High Performance Computing (HPC) systems, running ensembles of Earth system models (ESMs) that assimilate the data. For the first time gridded EC data products and response functions promise to offset pervasive observational biases through evaluating, benchmarking, optimizing parameters, and training new machine learning parameterizations within ESMs all at the same model-grid scale. Leveraging open-source software for EC data analysis, we are already building software infrastructure for integration of near-real time data streams into the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) package for use by the wider research community. We will present a perspective on the design and integration of end-to-end infrastructure for data acquisition, edge computing, HPC simulation, analysis, and validation, where Artificial Intelligence (AI) approaches are used throughout the distributed workflow to improve accuracy and computational performance.

Durden, David J.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Mod-1 Wind Turbine Generator Analysis

A general summary of the MOD-1 wind turbine generator control system and simulation is presented. Mechanical and speed stabilization control means to add drive train damping were mentioned and MOD-1 simulation results showing the effects of speed stabilization are displayed.

Barton, R. S.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Development of Telemedicine Capabilities for a Joint US-Russian Space Biomedical Center for Training and Research

From the perspective of scheduling, some medical consultations can have asynchronous and synchronous components. Consultations frequently involve the compilation of patient data, its analysis, a consultant's report, and a real-time conference between the referring physician and the consultant. The bandwidth of the Internet with Moscow and advances in the hardware and software of personal computing now make possible telemedicine events with store-and-forward components and real-time components. These are hybrid telemedicine and this paper describes such a case.

DeBakey, Michael E.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Study of Antarctic Blowing Snow Storms Using MODIS and CALIOP Observations With a Machine Learning Model

As a common phenomenon over Antarctica, blowing snow (BLSN), especially the large BLSN storms, play an important role in the Antarctic surface mass balance, radiation budget, and planetary boundary layer processes. This study presents the work on BLSN storm identification and analysis with observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Aqua satellite. Spectral analysis shows that BLSN identification is feasible with MODIS daytime data. A random forest machine learning model is developed and observations from the Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization are used for training. Model performance results show that machine‐learning based classification can achieve over 90% overall accuracy when classifying MODIS pixels into cloud, clear, and BLSN categories. The machine learning model is applied to MODIS observations during the month of October 2009 for BLSN storm analysis. Results show that the size of BLSN storms has a large spectrum and can reach hundreds of thousands km2. The MODIS based BLSN storm frequency map extends the Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations coverage limit from 82°S to the South Pole. A BLSN storm belt, which extends from the South Pole region to the coastal area between 130°E and 160°E along the Transantarctic Mountains, provides a potential pathway of snow transport. These results are important in improving the understanding of BLSN impact on Antarctic surface mass balance and boundary layer processes.

Antarctic↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven analysis of dipole strength functions using artificial neural networks

Here, we present a data-driven analysis of dipole strength functions across the nuclear chart, employing an artificial neural network to model nuclear dipole responses. We train the network on a dataset of experimentally measured dipole strength functions for 216 different nuclei. To assess its predictive capability, we test the trained model on an additional set of 10 new nuclei, where experimental data exist. We demonstrate that the artificial neural network not only accurately reproduces known data but also identifies potential inconsistencies in experimental datasets, indicating which results may warrant further review or possible rejection. For nuclei where experimental data are sparse or unavailable, the network confirms theoretical calculations, reinforcing its utility as a predictive tool in nuclear physics. Finally, utilizing the predicted electric dipole polarizability, we extract the value of the symmetry energy at saturation density and find it consistent with results from the literature.

artificial neural networks↗
NASA NTRS2022

The Influence of Land Use and Land Cover Change on Landslide Susceptibility in the Lower Mekong River Basin

The Lower Mekong River Basin in Southeast Asia experiences frequent rainfall-triggered landslides especially during the monsoon season. In this study, the influence of land use and land cover change and other causative factors on landslide susceptibility is evaluated in the Lower Mekong Basin. Frequency ratio analysis is performed to quantify the relationship between LULC change and susceptibility. Detailed landslide inventory maps are used for analysis with yearly LULC maps. The LULC change is used as a contributing variable in a logistic regression-based susceptibility model with other variables including distance to roads, slope, aspect, forest loss, and soil properties. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and Area Under the Curve are estimated for the model trained by each landslide inventory. The models show good performance, with AUC values ranging from 0.697 to 0.958 and an average AUC equal to 0.820. Both the Frequency Ratio analysis and the Logistic Regression models indicate LULC change from agricultural land to forest has a positive correlation with landslide occurrence. The most significant factors in the models are found to be distance to roads, slope, and aspect. A better understanding of the effects of LULC on landslide susceptibility can be useful for local land and disaster management and for the implementation of LULC as a factor in future susceptibility models. Using datasets that are unique to the Lower Mekong region, this study provides additional insights into the relationship between causative factors and landslide activity to better inform regional and global landslide susceptibility modeling.

River Basin↗
NASA NTRS2019

Exploring the Utility of Machine Learning-Based Passive Microwave Brightness Temperature Data Assimilation over Terrestrial Snow in High Mountain Asia

This study explores the use of a support vector machine (SVM) as the observation operator within a passive microwave brightness temperature data assimilation framework (herein SVM-DA) to enhance the characterization of snow water equivalent (SWE) over High Mountain Asia (HMA). A series of synthetic twin experiments were conducted with the NASA Land Information System (LIS) at a number of locations across HMA. Overall, the SVM-DA framework is effective at improving SWE estimates (~70% reduction in RMSE relative to the Open Loop) for SWE depths less than 200 mm during dry snowpack conditions. The SVM-DA framework also improves SWE estimates in deep, wet snow (~45% reduction in RMSE) when snow liquid water is well estimated by the land surface model, but can lead to model degradation when snow liquid water estimates diverge from values used during SVM training. In particular, two key challenges of using the SVM-DA framework were observed over deep, wet snowpacks. First, variations in snow liquid water content dominate the brightness temperature spectral difference (TB) signal associated with emission from a wet snowpack, which can lead to abrupt changes in SWE during the analysis update. Second, the ensemble of SVM-based predictions can collapse (i.e., yield a near-zero standard deviation across the ensemble) when prior estimates of snow are outside the range of snow inputs used during the SVM training procedure. Such a scenario can lead to the presence of spurious error correlations between SWE and TB, and as a consequence, can result in degraded SWE estimates from the analysis update. These degraded analysis updates can be largely mitigated by applying rule-based approaches. For example, restricting the SWE update when the standard deviation of the predicted TB is greater than 0.05 K helps prevent the occurrence of filter divergence. Similarly, adding a thin layer (i.e., 5 mm) of SWE when the synthetic TB is larger than 5 K can improve SVM-DA performance in the presence of a precipitation dry bias. The study demonstrates that a carefully constructed SVM-DA framework cognizant of the inherent limitations of passive microwave-based SWE estimation holds promise for snow mass data assimilation.

Kwon, Yonghwan↗
DOE OSTI2020

Power Grid Contingency Analysis with Machine Learning: A Brief Survey and Prospects

We briefly review previous applications of machine learning (ML) in power grid analyses and introduce our ongoing effort toward developing a generative-adversarial (GA) model for fast and reliable grid contingency analyses. According to our review, the persisting limitation of traditional ML techniques in grid analyses is the need for an exhaustive amount of training data for model generalization and accurate predictions. GA models overcome this limitation by first learning true data distribution from a small training set, from which new samples assimilating true data are generated with some variations. Subsequently, GA models can transfer learn or super-generalize with increased accuracy, that is, accurately predict n - (k + 2) contingencies from a small n - k training set and generated n - (k + 1) data. The joint effort between Idaho National Lab and Florida State University strives to develop a zero-shot and deep learning-based contingency analysis tool, named Smart Contingency Analysis Neural Network (SCANN), by leveraging the aforementioned advantages of GA models. The basic architecture of SCANN stems from the Latent Encoding of Atypical Perturbations network combined with an adversarial network, and it is designed to generate imbalanced power flow data from learned true data distributions for prediction purposes. Here we also introduce the abstract concept of resilience-chaos plots, a new resilience characterization tool proposed to complement SCANN by aiding in the assessment of large amounts of high-order contingency predictions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Meta-analysis of North American Arctic and boreal aboveground biomass datasets: assessing accuracy, dynamics, and similarities

The North American arctic and boreal regions (ABRs) are rapidly warming and experiencing intensifying disturbances. Accurately quantifying aboveground biomass (AGB) is critical for understanding the impacts of these changes on the carbon cycle and for designing climate change mitigation strategies. Several AGB maps have been developed for the North American ABRs, including recent contributions from National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) campaign. However, these maps differ widely in training data, methodology, and resulting AGB density estimates. Presently, a comprehensive comparative evaluation is lacking, making it difficult for users to select datasets suited to their research or management needs. Here, in this study, we conducted a comparative analysis of nine AGB density datasets across North American ABRs, specifically for Alaska and Canada. We (1) summarized AGB by ecoregion and Canadian provinces, (2) evaluated their accuracy against field-based measurements, (3) analyzed spatial and temporal similarities among datasets, and (4) assessed their ability to capture disturbance (fire and harvest) impacts on AGB. We found substantial variation in regional and local AGB estimates across datasets, with overall accuracy ranging from R 2 = 0.25–0.62 and Bias% from −47.8% to 69.9% when validated against field plots. Despite these differences, most datasets have comparatively consistent spatial patterns in AGB (r > 0.8 for most cases). In contrast, agreement on the temporal patterns of AGB change is generally low. We found datasets with spatial resolutions ⩽300 m are capable of capturing disturbance impacts on AGB dynamics, though sensitivity varies across products. Our findings and dataset summary provide guidance for selecting appropriate AGB datasets for different applications within our study area. Our analysis also highlights the need to decrease map bias and increase capability to detect temporal change to decrease uncertainty of AGB datasets potentially by using training data which is representative of major plant functional types within the mapped area.

ABoVE↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Fate of Saharan Dust Across the Atlantic: An Integrated Modeling and Observational Study of the TC4 Field Campaign

During the NASA TC-4 field campaign in July 2007, several Saharan dust events were observed over the Caribbean basin. A-Train observations suggest that these Saharan dust events are confined the Caribbean and rarely transported across Central America to the Pacific Ocean. We investigate the nature of this barrier to dust transport using the NASA GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model. Our simulations with GEOS-5 are driven by the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) meteorological analyses, and include online simulation of aerosol distributions using a version of the Goddard Chemistry, Aerosol, Radiation, and Transport (GOCART) model. Simulated dust distributions are evaluated using A-Train observations from MODIS and CALIOP, as well as MISR and ground-based AERONET sun photometers, and show good agreement with the observations in terms of the timing and magnitude of dust events. A component analysis of the dust transport and removal pathways is used to evaluate the relative roles of these processes in establishing the observed dust transport barrier. From this analysis, we show that while both atmospheric dynamics and wet removal contribute towards the Caribbean dust barrier, northward dust transport is the more dominant term. Additional simulations are performed to ascertain the sensitivity of our results to uncertain loss processes (i.e., wet removal) in our model.

Nowottnick, E.↗
DOE OSTI2023

HopBox: An image analysis pipeline to characterize hop cone morphology

Abstract Hop cone morphology can influence picking and drying ability, and color can impact consumer preference and may be indicative of quality. However, these characteristics are not generally evaluated in hop breeding programs due to the tedious nature of trait quantification and the extensive variation among cones within a genotype. We developed the HopBox, which is a simply constructed light box with a camera mount, and a publicly available image processing pipeline that identifies hop cones within color‐corrected images, reads a QR code within the image, and outputs data on hop cone length, width, area, perimeter, openness, weight, color, and density. The trained model was applied to images of 500 cones each from 15 replicated advanced hop genotypes from the USDA‐ARS breeding program in Prosser, Washington. Analysis of variance revealed significant ( p < 0.001) differences between genotypes for all traits measured, enabling breeders to discriminate between genotypes for selection purposes. Broad sense heritability for all traits ranged from 0.23 to 0.59. A random sampling of hop cones from the complete dataset revealed that imaging only 5–10 cones adequately captured genotypic variation and provided acceptable rank correlations ( r s > 0.75); however, increasing the sample size to 30 provided optimal precision. Instructions for constructing a HopBox and the code for the analysis pipeline are publicly available online and have wide applicability for hop breeding and research.

Altendorf, Kayla R.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analysis and Benchmarking of feature reduction for classification under computational constraints

Abstract Machine learning is most often expensive in terms of computational and memory costs due to training with large volumes of data. Current computational limitations of many computing systems motivate us to investigate practical approaches, such as feature selection and reduction, to reduce the time and memory costs while not sacrificing the accuracy of classification algorithms. In this work, we carefully review, analyze, and identify the feature reduction methods that have low costs/overheads in terms of time and memory. Then, we evaluate the identified reduction methods in terms of their impact on the accuracy, precision, time, and memory costs of traditional classification algorithms. Specifically, we focus on the least resource intensive feature reduction methods that are available in Scikit-Learn library. Since our goal is to identify the best performing low-cost reduction methods, we do not consider complex expensive reduction algorithms in this study. In our evaluation, we find that at quadratic-scale feature reduction, the classification algorithms achieve the best trade-off among competitive performance metrics. Results show that the overall training times are reduced 61%, the model sizes are reduced 6×, and accuracy scores increase 25% compared to the baselines on average with quadratic scale reduction.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Eye-Tracking Analysis from a Flight-Director-Use and Pilot-Monitoring Study

Eye tracking may be a useful tool to investigate pilot monitoring and develop and conduct training. There is increased interest from airlines to use eye-tracking technologies in flight simulators. However, much is still unknown about how to best utilize eye-tracking data in pilot training. This paper presents eye-tracking results from a pilot-monitoring training study with 19 pilots. All pilots completed 15 monitoring challenges across four operational scenarios in a B737-700 full flight simulator. In addition, the study investigated the impact of having the flight director engaged or disengaged on the pilot monitoring side in the final approach. It was hypothesized that pilots would focus less on the primary flight display with the flight director off and look more around in the cockpit. To assess this, pilots performed half of the scenarios with the flight director on and half with the flight director off. However, pilots monitoring tended to look less at the primary flight display with the flight director on as indicated by lower Proportion Dwell Times, contrary to the hypothesis. Next, eye-tracking data were analyzed from two monitoring challenges involving waypoint restrictions and two involving extending the flaps at appropriate airspeeds. Pilots that successfully completed the challenges appeared to focus more on areas of interest that contained the most relevant information to successfully complete the challenge. In addition, successful pilots seemed to adapt their monitoring strategy more to the challenge at hand as observed by a distinct shift in focus on either the primary flight display or the navigation display depending on the challenge. Our findings suggest the importance of flexible gaze allocation across specific situations and raise the question whether and to what degree prespecified patterns of eye fixation can be identified and trained.

eye tracking↗