Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Stochastic simulations”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,027 records · Page 57

Mechanisms of Dynamic Near-Wake Modulation of a Utility-Scale Wind Turbine

The current study uses large eddy simulations to investigate the transient response of a utility-scale wind turbine wake to dynamic changes in atmospheric and operational conditions, as observed in previous field-scale measurements. Most wind turbine wake investigations assume quasi-steady conditions, but real wind turbines operate in a highly stochastic atmosphere, and their operation (e.g. blade pitch, yaw angle) changes constantly in response. Furthermore, dynamic control strategies have been recently proposed to optimize wind farm power generation and longevity. Therefore, improved understanding of dynamic wake behaviours is essential. First, changes in blade pitch are investigated and the wake expansion response is found to display hysteresis as a result of flow inertia. The time scales of the wake response to different pitch rates are quantified. Next, changes in wind direction with different time scales are explored. Under short time scales, the wake deflection is in the opposite direction of that observed under quasi-steady conditions. Finally, yaw changes are implemented at different rates, and the maximum inverse wake deflection and time scale are quantified, showing a clear dependence on yaw rate. To gain further physical understanding of the mechanism behind the inverse wake deflection, the streamwise vorticity in different parts of the wake is quantified. The results of this study provide guidance for the design of advanced wake flow control algorithms. The lag in wake response observed for both blade pitch and yaw changes shows that proposed dynamic control strategies must implement turbine operational changes with a time scale of the order of the rotor time scale or slower.

flow-structure interactions↗

Assessing the potential of composite confining systems for secure and long-term CO 2 retention in geosequestration

A potential geologic target for CO 2 storage should ensure secure containment of injected CO 2 . Traditionally, this objective has been achieved by targeting reservoirs with overlying seals-regionally extensive, low permeability units that have been proven capable of retaining buoyant fluid accumulations over geologic time. However, considering that the amount of CO 2 is limited by a decadal injection period, vertical migration of CO 2 can be effectively halted by a composite system of discontinuous shale/silt/mudstone barriers in bedded sedimentary rocks. Here, we studied the impact of depositional architectures in a composite confining system on CO 2 migration and confinement at reservoir scale. We stochastically generated lithologically heterogeneous reservoir models containing discontinuous barriers consistent with statistical distributions of net-sand-to-gross-shale ratio (NTG) and horizontal correlation lengths derived from well log data and observations of producing hydrocarbon fields in Southern Louisiana. We then performed an extensive suite of reservoir simulations of CO 2 injection and post-injection to evaluate the sensitivity of CO 2 plume migration and pressure response of the composite system to a series of geologic and fluid parameters including the lateral continuity of barriers, NTG, permeability anisotropy within the sand body, and capillary pressure contrast between the sand and shale facies. The results indicate that lateral continuity of barriers and NTG are the dominant controls on CO 2 plume geometry and pressure build-up in the reservoir, while the impact of NTG is particularly pronounced. The significance of intraformational barriers becomes apparent as they facilitate the local capillary trapping of CO 2 . Those barriers improve the pore space occupancy by promoting a more dispersed shape of the plume and ultimately retard the buoyancy-driven upward migration of the plume post injection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Deterministic scattering of relativistic electron beams by off-resonant circularly polarized electromagnetic waves

A mechanism is presented whereby relativistic electron beams localized in phase space are deterministically scattered by coherent circularly polarized electromagnetic waves without stochastic processes. It is shown via an exact single-particle analysis that the condition for maximal scattering is an off-resonant condition, contrary to previous kinetic analyses that predict maximal diffusion or interaction at exact resonance or its harmonics. The mechanism, verified by single-particle simulations, enables a fast, nonlinear redistribution of the beam particles. A possible application of this mechanism to runaway electron suppression is presented.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Wavefront shaping with a Hadamard basis for scattering soil imaging

Here, soil is a scattering medium that inhibits imaging of plant-microbial-mineral interactions that are essential to plant health and soil carbon sequestration. However, optical imaging in the complex medium of soil has been stymied by the seemingly intractable problems of scattering and contrast. Here, we develop a wavefront shaping method based on adaptive stochastic parallel gradient descent optimization with a Hadamard basis to focus light through soil mineral samples. Our approach allows a sparse representation of the wavefront with reduced dimensionality for the optimization. We further divide the used Hadamard basis set into subsets and optimize a certain subset at once. Simulation and experimental optimization results demonstrate our method has an approximately seven times higher convergence rate and overall better performance compared to that with optimizing all pixels at once. The proposed method can benefit other high-dimensional optimization problems in adaptive optics and wavefront shaping.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

GPS Spoofing Mitigation and Timing Risk Analysis in Networked Phasor Measurement Units via Stochastic Reachability

To address phasor measurement unit (PMU) vulnerability to spoofing, we propose the use of a set-valued state estimation technique known as stochastic reachability (SR)-based distributed Kalman filter (DKF) that computes secure global positioning system (GPS) timing across a network of receivers. Utilizing SR, we estimate not only GPS time but also its stochastic reachable set, which is parameterized by probabilistic zonotope (p-Zonotope). While requiring known measurement error bounds in only non-spoofed conditions, we designed a two-tiered approach. We first performed measurement-level spoofing mitigation via deviation of a measurement innovation from its expected p-Zonotope. We then performed state-level timing risk analysis via a determination of the intersection probability of the estimated p-Zonotope with an unsafe set that violates IEEE C37.118.1a-2014 standards. Finally, we validated our SR-DKF algorithm by subjecting it to a simulated receiver network to coordinate signal-level spoofing. We demonstrate improved timing accuracy and successful spoofing mitigation via the use of our SR-DKF algorithm. We also validated the robustness of the estimated timing risk as the number of receivers were varied.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Resilience-Oriented DG Siting and Sizing Considering Stochastic Scenario Reduction

In this paper, a fuel-based distributed generator (DG) allocation strategy is proposed to enhance the distribution system resilience against extreme weather. The long-term planning problem is formulated as a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer programming (SMIP). The first stage is to make decisions of DG siting and sizing under the given budget constraint. In the second stage, a post-extreme-event-restoration (PEER) is employed to minimize the operating cost in an uncertain fault scenario. In particular, this study proposes a method to select the most representative scenarios for the SMIP. First, a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is introduced to generate sufficient scenarios considering random fault locations and load profiles. Then, the number of scenarios is reduced by the K-means clustering algorithm. The advantage of scenario reduction is to make a trade-off between accuracy and computational efficiency. Finally, the SMIP is solved by the progressive hedging algorithm. Here, the case studies of the IEEE 33-bus and 123-bus test systems demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in reducing the expected energy not served (EENS), which is a critical criterion of resilience.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Stochastic Framework for Estimating Load Profiles at EV Fast Charging Stations

This paper formulates a methodology for estimating the average daily load profiles of EV fast charging stations over a planning horizon of five to ten years. The developed methodology uses historic vehicle registration data, state-level EV adoption targets, seasonal driving patterns, local demographics, competition, and traffic volume information to predict average station usage. Through Monte Carlo simulations, an average daily load profile is obtained for each month in the planning horizon, and prediction uncertainty is quantified. The proposed framework will facilitate the accurate estimation of energy and demand costs incurred by the charging station over the planning period, thereby informing return-on-investment calculations.

Biswas, Shuchismita↗

Information distribution in distributed microprocessor based flight control systems

This paper presents an optimal control theory that accounts for variable time intervals in the information distribution to control effectors in a distributed microprocessor based flight control system. The theory is developed using a linear process model for the aircraft dynamics and the information distribution process is modeled as a variable time increment process where, at the time that information is supplied to the control effectors, the control effectors know the time of the next information update only in a stochastic sense. An optimal control problem is formulated and solved that provides the control law that minimizes the expected value of a quadratic cost function. An example is presented where the theory is applied to the control of the longitudinal motions of the F8-DFBW aircraft. Theoretical and simulation results indicate that, for the example problem, the optimal cost obtained using a variable time increment Markov information update process where the control effectors know only the past information update intervals and the Markov transition mechanism is almost identical to that obtained using a known uniform information update interval.

Montgomery, R. C.↗

Mechanical model of an earthquake fault

The dynamic behavior of a simple mechanical model of an earthquake fault is studied. This model, introduced originally by Burridge and Knopoff (1967), consists of an elastically coupled chain of masses in contact with a moving rough surface. The present version of the model retains the full Newtonian dynamics with inertial effects and contains no externally imposed stochasticity or spatial inhomogeneity. The only nonlinear feature is a velocity-weakening stick-slip friction force between the masses and the moving surface. This system is being driven persistently toward a slipping instability and therefore exhibits noisy sequences of earthquakelike events. These events are observed in numerical simulations, and many of their features can be predicted analytically.

Carlson, J. M.↗

Adaptive nonlinear polynomial neural networks for control of boundary layer/structural interaction

The acoustic pressures developed in a boundary layer can interact with an aircraft panel to induce significant vibration in the panel. Such vibration is undesirable due to the aerodynamic drag and structure-borne cabin noises that result. The overall objective of this work is to develop effective and practical feedback control strategies for actively reducing this flow-induced structural vibration. This report describes the results of initial evaluations using polynomial, neural network-based, feedback control to reduce flow induced vibration in aircraft panels due to turbulent boundary layer/structural interaction. Computer simulations are used to develop and analyze feedback control strategies to reduce vibration in a beam as a first step. The key differences between this work and that going on elsewhere are as follows: that turbulent and transitional boundary layers represent broadband excitation and thus present a more complex stochastic control scenario than that of narrow band (e.g., laminar boundary layer) excitation; and secondly, that the proposed controller structures are adaptive nonlinear infinite impulse response (IIR) polynomial neural network, as opposed to the traditional adaptive linear finite impulse response (FIR) filters used in most studies to date. The controllers implemented in this study achieved vibration attenuation of 27 to 60 dB depending on the type of boundary layer established by laminar, turbulent, and intermittent laminar-to-turbulent transitional flows. Application of multi-input, multi-output, adaptive, nonlinear feedback control of vibration in aircraft panels based on polynomial neural networks appears to be feasible today. Plans are outlined for Phase 2 of this study, which will include extending the theoretical investigation conducted in Phase 2 and verifying the results in a series of laboratory experiments involving both bum and plate models.

Parker, B. Eugene, Jr.↗

Refined Sensitivity Estimates for Single-Molecule Magnet Dark Matter Detectors

We revisit the sensitivity of Single Molecule Magnet (SMM) crystals as detectors for low-mass dark matter. In previous work, we established the concept of the ``magnetic bubble chamber'', where energy deposited by dark matter triggers a magnetic avalanche in a metastable crystal. The original sensitivity estimates relied on a conservative criterion requiring the spin relaxation time to be strictly shorter than the thermal diffusion time. Here, we demonstrate that this criterion effectively ignores the stochastic nature of spin relaxation. We derive a refined analytic estimate which accounts for the fraction of spins that relax even when diffusion is fast. We show that the Zeeman energy released by this fraction contributes to local heating, significantly lowering the energy threshold for avalanche formation. We present simulation results confirming this effect and report on experimental verification of the assumed low-temperature thermal properties of two representative SMM crystals, Mn$_{12}$-acetate and Mn$_{32}$. Together, these efforts extend this pathfinder program toward the realization of SMM-based detectors with controlled material properties and enhanced dark matter sensitivity.

Eberhardt, Andrew [Tokyo U., IPMU]↗

Asynchronous Reciprocal Coupling of Martini 2.2 Coarse-Grained and CHARMM36 All-Atom Simulations in an Automated Multiscale Framework

The appeal of multiscale modeling approaches is predicated on the promise of combinatorial synergy. However, this promise can only be realized when distinct scales are combined with reciprocal consistency. Here, we consider multiscale molecular dynamics (MD) simulations that combine the accuracy and macromolecular flexibility accessible to fixed-charge all-atom (AA) representations with the sampling speed accessible to reductive, coarse-grained (CG) representations. AA-to-CG conversions are relatively straightforward because deterministic routines with unique outcomes are achievable. Conversely, CG-to-AA conversions have many solutions due to a surge in the number of degrees of freedom. While automated tools for biomolecular CG-to-AA transformation exist, we find that one popular option, called Backward, is prone to stochastic failure and the AA models that it does generate frequently have compromised protein structure and incorrect stereochemistry. Although these shortcomings can likely be circumvented by human intervention in isolated instances, automated multiscale coupling requires reliable and robust scale conversion. In this work, we detail an extension to Multiscale Machine-learned Modeling Infrastructure (MuMMI), including an improved CG-to-AA conversion tool called sinceCG. This tool is reliable (~98% weakly correlated repeat success rate), automatable (no unrecoverable hangs), and yields AA models that generally preserve protein secondary structure and maintain correct stereochemistry. We describe how the MuMMI framework identifies CG system configurations of interest, converts them to AA representations, and simulates them at the AA scale while on-the-fly analyses provide feedback to update CG parameters. Application to systems containing the peripheral membrane protein RAS and proximal components of RAF kinase on complex eight-component lipid bilayers with ~1.5 million atoms is discussed in the context of MuMMI.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Stochastic Particle Acceleration in Impulsive Solar Flares

The acceleration of a huge number of electrons and ions to relativistic energies over timescales ranging from several seconds to several tens of seconds is the fundamental problem in high-energy solar physics. The cascading turbulence model we have developed has been shown previously (e.g., Miller 2000; Miller & Roberts 1995; Miner, LaRosa, & Moore 1996) to account for all the bulk features (such as acceleration timescales, fluxes, total number of energetic particles, and maximum energies) of electron and proton acceleration in impulsive solar flares. While the simulation of this acceleration process is involved, the essential idea of the model is quite simple, and consists of just a few parts: 1. During the primary flare energy release phase, we assume that low-amplitude MHD Alfven and fast mode waves are excited at long wavelengths, say comparable to the size of the event (although the results are actually insensitive to this initial wavelength). While an assumption, this appears reasonable in light of the likely highly turbulent nature of the flare. 2. These waves then cascade in a Kolmogorov-like fashion to smaller wavelengths (e.g., Verma et al. 1996), forming a power-law spectral density in wavenumber space through the inertial range. 3. When the mean wavenumber of the fast mode waves has increased sufficiently, the transit-time acceleration rate (Miller 1997) for superAlfvenic electrons can overcome Coulomb energy losses, and these electrons are accelerated out of the thermal distribution and to relativistic energies (Miller et al. 1996). As the Alfven waves cascade to higher wavenumbers, they can cyclotron resonate with progressively lower energy protons. Eventually, they will resonate with protons in the tail of the thermal distribution, which will then be accelerated to relativistic energies as well (Miller & Roberts 1995). Hence, both ions and electrons are stochastically accelerated, albeit by different mechanisms and different waves. 4. When the protons become superAlfvenic (above about 1 MeV/nucleon), they too can suffer transit-time acceleration by the fast mode waves and will receive an extra acceleration "kick." The basic overall objective of this 1 year effort was to construct a spatially-dependent version of this acceleration model and this has been realized.

Miller, James A.↗

Correspondence between neuroevolution and gradient descent

Abstract We show analytically that training a neural network by conditioned stochastic mutation or neuroevolution of its weights is equivalent, in the limit of small mutations, to gradient descent on the loss function in the presence of Gaussian white noise. Averaged over independent realizations of the learning process, neuroevolution is equivalent to gradient descent on the loss function. We use numerical simulation to show that this correspondence can be observed for finite mutations, for shallow and deep neural networks. Our results provide a connection between two families of neural-network training methods that are usually considered to be fundamentally different.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Tailoring resonant magnetic perturbation to optimize fast-ion confinement during ELM control in KSTAR

Abstract 3D resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) is one promising way to control edge localized modes that can cause excessive material erosion of tokamak first walls. However, RMP can lead to undesired degradation of plasma confinement, including fast-particle losses, which can impact the performance and safety of the reactor. This work investigates the optimization of the poloidal spectrum of the 3D field to optimize fast ion confinement during edge localized mode (ELM) suppression. In the initial step, the validity of the modeling framework is tested against experimental data. Simulations successfully replicate an increase in poloidal limiter temperature with different poloidal spectra. Then, the simulation shows improvement of fast ion confinement with a reduction of core resonant response, while edge resonant magnetic fields are maintained above the threshold to sustain the ELM suppression. Reduction of the core resonant fields keeps the Kolmogorov–Arnold–Moser surface and reduces the fast particle losses due to the stochastic magnetic field lines. The results highlight the potential of edge localization of the resonant fields to enhance the performance of fusion reactors, but further investigation is needed to improve the validation of this approach.

3D field↗

The effects of earth model uncertainty on the inversion of seismic data for seismic source functions

SUMMARY We use Monte Carlo simulations to explore the effects of earth model uncertainty on the estimation of the seismic source time functions that correspond to the six independent components of the point source seismic moment tensor. Specifically, we invert synthetic data using Green’s functions estimated from a suite of earth models that contain stochastic density and seismic wave-speed heterogeneities. We find that the primary effect of earth model uncertainty on the data is that the amplitude of the first-arriving seismic energy is reduced, and that this amplitude reduction is proportional to the magnitude of the stochastic heterogeneities. Also, we find that the amplitude of the estimated seismic source functions can be under- or overestimated, depending on the stochastic earth model used to create the data. This effect is totally unpredictable, meaning that uncertainty in the earth model can lead to unpredictable biases in the amplitude of the estimated seismic source functions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Stochastic self-tuning hybrid algorithm for reaction-diffusion systems

Many biochemical phenomena involve reactants with vastly different concentrations, some of which are amenable to continuum-level descriptions, while the others are not. We present a hybrid self-tuning algorithm to model such systems. The method combines microscopic (Brownian) dynamics for diffusion with mesoscopic (Gillespie-type) methods for reactions and remains efficient in a wide range of regimes and scenarios with large variations of concentrations. Furthermore, its accuracy, robustness, and versatility are balanced by redefining propensities and optimizing the mesh size and time step. We use a bimolecular reaction to demonstrate the potential of our method in a broad spectrum of scenarios: from almost completely reaction-dominated systems to cases where reactions rarely occur or take place very slowly. The simulation results show that the number of particles present in the system does not degrade the performance of our method. This makes it an accurate and computationally efficient tool to model complex multireaction systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Modeling Streamflow and Sediment Transport Under Current and Future Climates at the West Valley Site - 20231

Performance Assessment models often require inputs representing specific hydrologic processes such as streamflow and sediment flux. This paper details the development of a process-level hydrologic model and its use in a Probabilistic Performance Assessment (PPA) system-level model for the West Valley Site in western New York. For this PPA model, a watershed model was developed using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and used to evaluate water and sediment fluxes in nearby streams draining the Site. A particular challenge of probabilistic modeling over long periods of time is scaling parameters appropriately so that outcomes are not grossly over- or underestimated. This challenge is especially important when the spatial and temporal scales of process and system level models differ. In this instance, the SWAT watershed model and GoldSim PPA model have similar spatial scales of stream reaches and sub-catchments within a single watershed (approximately hundreds to tens of thousands of square meters, but the temporal scales differ considerably. The SWAT model calculates streamflow and sediment transport rates at the daily scale, while the PPA model requires long-term average values that are applied over hundreds to thousands of year-long periods. As such, distributions of daily climatic parameters such as average precipitation rate, temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity were developed to force a transient SWAT model that captures the dynamic behavior of the watershed in response to daily changes in the weather. Output from the model, which includes stream flow (m{sup 3}/y) and sediment transport rate (Mg/y) is then averaged over a 100-year period as an approximation for the long-term average values which can be applied in GoldSim. A single SWAT model was run 5000 times with varying climatic inputs and deterministic soil, land use, and elevation data, and the range of outputs were compiled into a distribution which can be implemented stochastically into the PPA Model. Additionally, this paper includes a high-level discussion of how changes in future climate affect weather input distributions, and a summary of how those changes in weather affect the outcomes from the SWAT model and the inputs into the PPA model. In this analysis, future climate distributions were developed based on climate research documenting the expected changes to precipitation and temperature in western New York. The 5,000 SWAT simulations were then repeated with these future climate distributions, and the resulting output was implemented into the PPA Model as hydrologic conditions under a future climate. In the current version of the PPA Model, hydrologic parameters change linearly from the 'current climate' conditions to the 'future climate' conditions over a period of 100 years, after which they remain constant. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗