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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

MO-FG-303-03: Demonstration of Universal Knowledge-Based 3D Dose Prediction

Purpose: To demonstrate a knowledge-based 3D dose prediction methodology that can accurately predict achievable radiotherapy distributions. Methods: Using previously treated plans as input, an artificial neural network (ANN) was trained to predict 3D dose distributions based on 14 patient-specific anatomical parameters including the distance (r) to planning target volume (PTV) boundary, organ-at-risk (OAR) boundary distances, and angular position ( θ,φ). 23 prostate and 49 stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) cases with ≥1 nearby OARs were studied. All were planned with volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) to prescription doses of 81Gy for prostate and 12–30Gy for SRS. Site-specific ANNs were trained using all prostate 23 plans and using a 24 randomly-selected subset for the SRS model. The remaining 25 SRS plans were used to validate the model. To quantify predictive accuracy, the dose difference between the clinical plan and prediction were calculated on a voxel-by-voxel basis δD(r,θ,φ)=Dclin(r,θ,φ)-Dpred(r, θ,φ). Grouping voxels by boundary distance, the mean <δ Dr>=(1/N)Σ -θ,φ D(r,θ,φ) and inter-quartile range (IQR) quantified the accuracy of this method for deriving DVH estimations. The standard deviation (σ) of δ D quantified the 3D dose prediction error on a voxel-by-voxel basis. Results: The ANNs were highly accurate in predictive ability for both prostate and SRS plans. For prostate, <δDr> ranged from −0.8% to +0.6% (max IQR=3.8%) over r=0–32mm, while 3D dose prediction accuracy averaged from σ=5–8% across the same range. For SRS, from r=0–34mm the training set <δDr> ranged from −3.7% to +1.5% (max IQR=4.4%) while the validation set <δDr> ranged from −2.2% to +5.8% (max IQR=5.3%). 3D dose prediction accuracy averaged σ=2.5% for the training set and σ=4.0% over the same interval. Conclusion: The study demonstrates this technique’s ability to predict achievable 3D dose distributions for VMAT SRS and prostate. Future investigations will attempt to separate and quantify modeling error and plan quality variations in the statistical noise. Research funding support from Varian Medical Systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Calibration of the Diffusivity Predictions of Centipede Using Approximate Bayesian Computation and Applications in Nyx (Engineering Scale) and Xolotl-MARMOT (Meso-Scale) Simulations

Fission gas evolution and release in UO 2 nuclear fuel are important fuel performance metrics and occur in several distinct stages: 1) nucleation, growth and resolution of intra-granular bubbles, 2) diffusion to grain boundaries and 3) nucleation and growth of bubbles at grain boundaries, which eventually form a connected network (percolation) enabling release of gas from grain boundaries through connections to triple junctions, grain edges or free surfaces. The NE-SciDAC project is developing several computational tools to model this problem, which are connected in a hierarchical multi-scale framework. The information transfer in the multi-scale framework is a critical step that, in addition to best-estimates, should include uncertainty quantification. Despite taking a first-principles multi-scale approach, there is a need to perform parameter calibration to ensure consistency with available experimental data. In the present study, uncertainty quantification (UQ) and parameter calibration is demonstrated for one of the lower length scale codes in the multi-scale framework (Centipede) and then the results, including instances of the propagated uncertainties, are used in other codes within the framework, specifically Nyx and Xolotl-MARMOT. We calibrated the model parameters in Centipede, a computer code used to predict diffusivities of uranium (U) and xenon (Xe) in the context of the simulation of fission gas in uranium oxide (UO 2 ) nuclear fuel. The Centipede code depends on 183 parameters, all of which are subject to uncertainty. The three data sets used in our calibration effort are taken from the literature. This data is available as a set of measurements, including measurement errors. Our goal is to calibrate a statistical model that predicts both the value of the measurement and the uncertainty associated with the measurement. We perform a Bayesian calibration of the model parameters using a dedicated approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) likelihood function. To avoid excessive computational costs, we replace the expensive Centipede simulation code by a higher-order surrogate model, constructed using only the 9 most important parameters. These important parameters are identified by a preliminary global sensitivity analysis (GSA) study. Among the important parameters are T0 (the temperature at which UO 2 is perfectly stoichiometric) and Hf_pO2 (the temperature dependence of the oxygen (O) partial pressure) that should be considered as operating conditions to be estimated along with the other parameters. We consider two different cases: one where we define one set of these operating conditions for all data sets, and one where we define distinct operating condition parameters for each data set. The Xe diffusivities predicted by the latter case show distinct features that could not be observed in the former. Next, we use the diffusivity predictions by Centipede as input to Nyx, a reduced order fuel performance code focused on gas behavior alone, in order to estimate quantities associated with inter-granular bubble formation at conditions specified by the experiments. Finally, the diffusivities obtained from the calibrated Centipede runs were used in coupled Xolotl-MARMOT simulations of intra- and inter-granular gas evolution. The results are compared to simulations using the baseline diffusivities from Turnbull et al.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Calibration and Commissioning of the LSST

Understanding the nature of dark energy and dark matter remains one of the fundamental questions in physics today; impacting our understanding of particle physics, cosmology, and possibly theories of gravity. Given the scale and complexity of the next generation of cosmology experiments (e.g., the Rubin Observatory, the Euclid satellite mission, and the Roman space telescope) we are entering an era where statistical noise no longer determines the accuracy to which we can measure cosmological parameters. Our ability to control and correct for systematics will ultimately determine the scientific impact of these experiments. This award addressed the challenge of how we determine what limits the accuracy of our cosmological measures, what techniques are appropriate for measuring and calibrating the properties of galaxies to best constrain cosmological models, how to develop statistical techniques that are insensitive to systematic errors, and how to optimize survey strategies in order to minimize systematics while maximizing the speed at which an experiment can achieve its science objectives. In this final technical report for award DE-SC0011635 we describe a set of open-source frameworks that simulate the characteristics and properties of current and planned cosmology surveys and the application of these frameworks to the development of new methodologies for estimating the properties and distances to galaxies that are robust to noisy and incomplete data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development and implementation of high-throughput proteomic and metabolomics assays by using advanced chromatographic and mass spectrometric systems (CRADA Final Report)

The mission of this CRADA with Agilent was to couple powerful MS platforms (QQQ, IM-QTOFMS) with Agilent’s novel Ultra-High-Performance Liquid Chromatography (UHPLC) fast metabolomic workflows and perform ABF Machine Learning (ML) to generated datasets. Agilent transferred UHPLC methods to PNNL and LBNL and methods were implemented and demonstrated in both labs, achieving total acquisition times of < 10 min. Metabolites analyzed using Agilent’s shared methods included metabolites from central carbon metabolism, common across hosts, and metabolites unique to engineered strains. Standards were acquired in an UHPLC-Drift Tube Ion Mobility Mass Spectrometer (DTIMS) system for the first time within the context of ABF and methods were optimized based on Agilent’s protocols. Samples from ABF hosts Pseudomonas putida, Aspergillus pseudoterreus, Aspergillus niger and Rhodosporidium toruloides were analyzed using the UHPLC-DTIMS platform for a total of 276 runs. A data analysis workflow compatible with the Experimental Data Depot (EDD) and completely shareable was developed for the acquired UHPLC-DTIMS data. Samples were analyzed using a Data Independent Acquisition Approach (DIA), which for most of the standards provided more transitions therefore increasing detection confidence. Using the data acquired by PNNL, LBNL, and Agilent’s specifications from previous ML projects, SNL applied an ensemble ML strategy to pick the best performing model for automated LC-method selection. Finally, with the contribution of the participant labs and Agilent, SNL developed an Automated Method Selection (AMS) software tool to predict the best liquid chromatography method for analysis of any new molecules of interest. Samples with novel pathways and new metabolite targets of interest are generated at a high pace in the ABF. Overall, the project advanced rapid metabolomics by combining liquid chromatography, ion mobility spectrometry, and data-independent mass spectrometry with machine learning. This multidimensional approach uses retention time, collision cross-section, precursor mass, and fragment-ion information to distinguish chemically similar metabolites that can be difficult to resolve using conventional liquid- or gas-chromatography methods. The resulting workflow also provided automated metabolite-identification error estimates, addressing a recognized need for statistical confidence measures in metabolomics.

Petzold, Christopher [Lawrence Berkeley National L↗
DOE OSTI2019

Mass Calibration of Optically Selected DES Clusters Using a Measurement of CMB-cluster Lensing with SPTpol Data

We use cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature maps from the 500 deg$^{2}$ SPTpol survey to measure the stacked lensing convergence of galaxy clusters from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year-3 redMaPPer (RM) cluster catalog. The lensing signal is extracted through a modified quadratic estimator designed to be unbiased by the thermal Sunyaev-Zel{'}dovich (tSZ) effect. The modified estimator uses a tSZ-free map, constructed from the SPTpol 95 and 150 GHz datasets, to estimate the background CMB gradient. For lensing reconstruction, we employ two versions of the RM catalog: a flux-limited sample containing 4003 clusters and a volume-limited sample with 1741 clusters. We detect lensing at a significance of 8.7$\sigma$(6.7$\sigma$) with the flux(volume)-limited sample. By modeling the reconstructed convergence using the Navarro-Frenk-White profile, we find the average lensing masses to be $M_{200m}$ = ($1.62^{+0.32}_{-0.25}$ [stat.] $\pm$ 0.04 [sys.]) and ($1.28^{+0.14}_{-0.18}$ [stat.] $\pm$ 0.03 [sys.]) $\times\ 10^{14}\ M_{\odot}$ for the volume- and flux-limited samples respectively. The systematic error budget is much smaller than the statistical uncertainty and is dominated by the uncertainties in the RM cluster centroids. We use the volume-limited sample to calibrate the normalization of the mass-richness scaling relation, and find a result consistent with the galaxy weak-lensing measurements from DES.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Xanthos-Lake Dataset

The Xanthos-Lake v1.0 dataset provides the input data, trained machine-learning models, and simulation outputs needed to characterize lake water balance, snow and ice conditions, and mixing-layer temperature within the Xanthos global hydrological modeling framework. The dataset supports lake representation across a wide range of lake sizes and hydroclimatic conditions by combining xLSIM, a basin-specific machine-learning emulator of lake snow, ice, ice-cover fraction, and mixing-layer temperature, with the Xanthos-Lake water-balance model. The archive contains NetCDF datasets used to train and evaluate xLSIM, trained model weights, processed meteorological and lake-property inputs, and basin- and lake-category-specific simulation outputs. These materials are organized into four primary data groups, described below. Snowice_model_inputs: Contains the NetCDF input data used to train xLSIM. The xLSIM machine-learning framework uses three lake-based datasets. The meteorological forcing dataset provides monthly relative humidity, specific humidity, surface wind speed, maximum and minimum air temperature, downward longwave and shortwave radiation, snowfall, surface air pressure, and total precipitation. Lake surface area is included as an additional static predictor. The target-state dataset provides lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow cover, and lake mixing-layer temperature, while a companion lake-surface dataset provides the lake ice-cover fraction. Before training, ice thickness and snow depth are converted from meters to centimeters, mixing-layer temperature is converted from kelvin to degrees Celsius and constrained to nonnegative values, and ice-cover fraction is converted from a fraction to a percentage. The predictor variables are normalized using statistics calculated across the selected lakes and time steps. Snowice_model_outputs: Contains the NetCDF outputs generated by xLSIM. For each basin, xLSIM produces a file containing observed and predicted lake-state variables for the training, validation, and testing periods. The modeled variables include lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow cover, mixing-layer temperature, and lake ice-cover fraction. For basins without a sufficiently persistent snow-and-ice signal, the emulator predicts only mixing-layer temperature. The outputs also include training and validation loss histories, the selected model configuration, identifiers of the lakes used in training, and SHAP-based feature-importance information at the global, lake, and seasonal-regime levels. The trained machine-learning model weights are provided separately within the dataset archive. Together, these files support model evaluation and subsequent coupling with the Xanthos-Lake water-balance framework. XanthosLAKES: Contains the NetCDF input data used by the Xanthos-Lake framework. Monthly meteorological inputs include relative and specific humidity, downward shortwave and longwave radiation, mean, maximum, and minimum air temperature, wind speed, precipitation, snowfall, and surface air pressure. Static lake-property datasets provide lake identifiers, geographic locations, surface area, volume, mean depth, elevation, drainage area, fetch, outlet-routing information, and associated Xanthos grid-cell attributes. Separate bathymetric datasets provide the coefficients of the area–depth and volume–depth relationships for each aggregated lake unit. GLEV-based records provide observed lake surface area and evaporation data used to initialize lake states, define reference conditions, and calibrate and evaluate the model. Xanthos-Lake Outputs: Contains the basin- and lake-category-specific NetCDF outputs generated by Xanthos-Lake. Monthly variables include lake surface area, storage volume, outlet discharge, evaporation rate, evaporation volume, lake–groundwater exchange, lake inflow, ice thickness, snow depth, snow-cover fraction, ice-cover fraction, and mixing-layer temperature. The files also contain lake-specific calibration and validation statistics, including normalized root-mean-square error, mean absolute error, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, Kling–Gupta efficiency, and percent bias. Stored calibrated and derived parameters include the weir discharge coefficient, fractional freeboard, groundwater exchange coefficient, reference water level, corresponding reference surface area and storage volume, weir-width adjustment factor, and the fraction of routed inflow entering the lake. Basin identifiers, lake category, simulation period, calibration and validation periods, and parameter-schema information are retained as NetCDF metadata.

Abeshu, Guta [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗
NASA NTRS1975

Micro-organism distribution sampling for bioassays

Purpose of sampling distribution is to characterize sample-to-sample variation so statistical tests may be applied, to estimate error due to sampling (confidence limits) and to evaluate observed differences between samples. Distribution could be used for bioassays taken in hospitals, breweries, food-processing plants, and pharmaceutical plants.

Nelson, B. A.↗
NASA NTRS1977

An investigation of techniques for the measurement and interpretation of cosmic ray isotopic abundances

An instrument, the Caltech High Energy Isotope Spectrometer Telescope was developed to measure isotopic abundances of cosmic ray nuclei by employing an energy loss - residual energy technique. A detailed analysis was made of the mass resolution capabilities of this instrument. A formalism, based on the leaky box model of cosmic ray propagation, was developed for obtaining isotopic abundance ratios at the cosmic ray sources from abundances measured in local interstellar space for elements having three or more stable isotopes, one of which is believed to be absent at the cosmic ray sources. It was shown that the dominant sources of uncertainty in the derived source ratios are uncorrelated errors in the fragmentation cross sections and statistical uncertainties in measuring local interstellar abundances. These results were applied to estimate the extent to which uncertainties must be reduced in order to distinguish between cosmic ray production in a solar-like environment and in various environments with greater neutron enrichments.

Wiedenbeck, M. E.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Development of advanced techniques for rotorcraft state estimation and parameter identification

An integrated methodology for rotorcraft system identification consists of rotorcraft mathematical modeling, three distinct data processing steps, and a technique for designing inputs to improve the identifiability of the data. These elements are as follows: (1) a Kalman filter smoother algorithm which estimates states and sensor errors from error corrupted data. Gust time histories and statistics may also be estimated; (2) a model structure estimation algorithm for isolating a model which adequately explains the data; (3) a maximum likelihood algorithm for estimating the parameters and estimates for the variance of these estimates; and (4) an input design algorithm, based on a maximum likelihood approach, which provides inputs to improve the accuracy of parameter estimates. Each step is discussed with examples to both flight and simulated data cases.

Hall, W. E., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Spectrum of the microwave background radiation

A review is given of the present status of measurements of the spectrum of the microwave background. Factors that limit experimental accuracy are discussed with particular reference to high-frequency measurements. A selection of the available measurements yields a data set that is reasonably consistent with the black-body spectrum for a temperature of 2.9 K. A simple statistical analysis suggests either that there are errors in the data set, or that deviations from a black-body spectrum exist. The difficulties inherent in properly averaging the results from different observers are described. Prospects for improved measurements are summarized.

Richards, P. L.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Effects of random member length errors on the accuracy and internal loads of truss antennas

The effects of random member length errors on the surface accuracy, the defocus, and the residual, internal loads of tetrahedral truss antenna reflectors have been studied analytically. The analytical procedure involves performing multiple, deterministic finite element structural analyses for a particular truss. For each analysis, the normally distributed, random member length errors are selected by random number generator. A best fit paraboloid analysis is used to determine a root mean square error and defocus from each analysis. The statistical properties of these quantities as well as the internal loads are calculated from the results of many independent analyses. Results indicate that the number of members in a tetrahedral truss antenna of a given diameter has a significant effect on surface accuracy, defocus and internal loads. It was also found that the member axial stiffnesses and antenna focal length have a very small effect on reflector surface accuracy.

Greene, W. H.↗
NASA NTRS1983

A comparison of geodetic Doppler satellite receivers

A great number of geodetic Doppler satellite receivers of various types have been employed since early 1970s. In October and November 1979, a comparison was conducted of three more recent types of receivers, including the CMA-751, the JMR-1A, and the MX-1502. A description of the studies involved in conducting the comparison is presented, taking into account the preliminary results obtained on the basis of the processing of the collected data. Attention is given to tracking statistics, chord difference results, range rate measurement errors, residual tests, station position repeatability, and absolute differences to ground control. Recommendations for future comparisons are also provided.

Archinal, B.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Statistical magnetic anomalies from satellite measurements for geologic analysis

The errors of numerically averaging satellite magnetic anomaly data for geologic analysis are investigated using orbital anomaly simulations of crustal magnetic sources by Gauss-Legendre quadrature integration. These simulations suggest that numerical averaging errors constitute small and relatively minor contributions to the total error-budget of higher orbital estimates (approx. 400 km), whereas for lower orbital estimates the error of averaging may increase substantially. Least-squares collocation is also investigated as an alternative to numerical averaging and found to produce substantially more accurate anomaly estimates as the elevation of prediction is decreased towards the crustal sources.

Goyal, H. K.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Navigation systems requirement analysis for the Aeroassist Flight Experiment (AFE)

Navigation requirements for Aeroassist Flight Experiment (AFE) spacecraft passing through the earth's atmosphere have been studied using a 6-DOF dynamics model, an Inertial Measurement Unit model, a baseline AFE aeropass flight guidance logic, and a baseline AFE aeropass control model. The goal of this study is to determine, in a statistical sense, how much flight path angle error can be tolerated at Entry Interface (EI) and still have acceptable delta-V requirements at exit to position the AFE spacecraft for recovery. Assuming there is fuel available to produce 370 ft/sec of delta-V at atmospheric exit, a 3-sigma standard deviation in flight path angle error of 0.04 degree at EI would result in a 98 percent probability of mission success. In addition to the required delta-V at exit, other aeropass parameters such as maximum aeroheating rate, fuel consumption, and the science requirements affecting mission success are also investigated.

Huang, K. H.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Probabilistic/Fracture-Mechanics Model For Service Life

Computer program makes probabilistic estimates of lifetime of engine and components thereof. Developed to fill need for more accurate life-assessment technique that avoids errors in estimated lives and provides for statistical assessment of levels of risk created by engineering decisions in designing system. Implements mathematical model combining techniques of statistics, fatigue, fracture mechanics, nondestructive analysis, life-cycle cost analysis, and management of engine parts. Used to investigate effects of such engine-component life-controlling parameters as return-to-service intervals, stresses, capabilities for nondestructive evaluation, and qualities of materials.

Watkins, T., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Generation of complete source samples from the Slew Survey

The Einstein Slew Survey consists of 819 bright X-ray sources, of which 636 (or 78 percent) are identified with counterparts in standard catalogs. We argue for the importance of bright X-ray surveys, and compare the slew results to the ROSAT all-sky survey. Also, we discuss statistical techniques for minimizing confusion in arcminute error circles in digitized data. We describe the 238 Slew Survey AGN, clusters, and BL Lac objects identified to date and their implications for logN-logS and source evolution studies. Also given is a catalog of 1075 sources detected in the Einstein Imaging Proportional Counter (IPC) Slew Survey of the X-ray sky. Five hundred fifty-four of these sources were not previously known as X-ray sources.

Schachter, Jonathan↗