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At least 1,027 records · Page 57

High Values of the Arctic Amplification in Early Decades of the 21st Century: Causes of Discrepancy by CMIP6 Models Between Observation and Simulation

Arctic Amplification (AA) in the first decade of the 21st century has reached values between 4 and 5, with a subsequent decrease to current values of about 3.6, while the value was from 2 to 3 during the twentieth century. The ensemble mean of the CMIP6 models has difficulty in reproducing the recently observed high values of the AA. In this report, we identify the main reason for this difficulty to be the CMIP6 models overestimate of the mean global temperature trend since about 1990. The largest values of the AA are observed in winter and spring. A sharp AA peak in 1987 spring was caused by a peak in the Arctic temperature trend occurring at the same time as a dip in the trend of mean global temperature. The winter AA has increased almost monotonically since 1990. Dividing the AA between the Arctic land and ocean areas shows that the ocean area makes a larger contribution to the AA. Our future projection of the AA suggests an increasing AA for about the next decade, followed by a slow decrease to about 3.5 in the 2050s.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Photovoltaic Cable Connectors: A Comparative Assessment of the Present State of the Industry [Slides]

The consequences of failure for balance of systems (BoS) components (such as PV cable connectors) include offline module string(s); low system voltage; arc, ground, insulation, and over-temperature faults; triggered fuse(s); system shutdown; and fire. The degradation modes for connectors are studied here through an industry survey and its subsequent examination, which are compared to field-degraded specimens. 117 specimens were obtained from a variety of locations and climates or accelerated tests. A failure analysis for connectors from PV installations was developed (and applied to 54 specimens) including nondestructive examinations (photography, a custom resistance-current scan, and X-ray computed tomography) and destructive examinations (featuring milling of the external plastic, extraction of the internal convolute spring, and potting and polishing in cross-section). Surface and through-thickness composition of the metal pins and springs was quantified using scanning electron microscopy with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy was used to verify the base polymer materials and compare the chemical structure of the connector body, bushing, end nut, and o-ring. Thermogravimetric analysis and differential scanning calorimetry were used to further verify the degradation of the same polymeric components. Updated from 2023 NIST/UL Workshop on Photovoltaic Materials Durability (website: https://events.ul.com/WPMogn?rt=aAuoWsl4E0KaORLCMeOgfA) and 2024 PVRW workshop (https://pvrw.nrel.gov/past-proceedings).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

How Snow Drives the Seasonal Evolution of Land and Sea Surface Albedos in the Alaskan High Arctic: Final Technical Report

The purpose of the project was to observe and quantify temporal variation in snow albedo and snow characteristics across the Arctic coastal landscape as winter transitioned into spring and snowmelt occurred, both on tundra and sea ice. This transition is bounded by fully snow-covered landscapes with broadband albedos of approximately 0.8 and snow-free landscapes with albedos of 0.15 (tundra or ponded sea ice). For these landscapes, we monitored the spring surface characteristics and radiative properties nearly daily at three locations on or near the Department of Energy ARM North Slope of Alaska (NSA) User Facility in Utqiagvik, Alaska: the central NSA Facility (hereafter called ARM), one near NSA-E12 (BEO), and one on the sea ice of Elson Lagoon (ICE) during three melt seasons (2019, 2022, and 2024). The field campaign component of this award was named SALVO ( S now AL bedo E VO lution). Typical field seasons began in mid-April and lasted until mid-June. Main measurements included snow depth (at 1-m intervals), broadband albedo (at 5-m intervals), spectral albedo (at 5- m intervals), and multiple digital images. Orthomosaics were converted into binary images to determine the snow-covered fraction over time across various landscapes. Additional measurements included basic weather data and snow-ground (or ice) interface temperatures. Sky conditions were observed and photographed to help assess albedo values.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Accelerated Snowmelt Protocol to Simulate Climate Change Induced Impacts on Snowpack Dependent Ecosystems

Field studies that simulate the effects of climate change are important for a predictive understanding of ecosystem responses to a changing environment. Among many concerns, regional warming can result in advanced timing of spring snowmelt in snowpack dependent ecosystems, which could lead to longer snow-free periods and drier summer soils. Past studies investigating these impacts of climate change have manipulated snowmelt with a variety of techniques that include manual snowpack alteration with a shovel, infrared radiation, black sand and fabric covers. Within these studies however, sufficient documentation of methods is limited, which can make experimental reproduction difficult. Here, we outline a detailed plot-scale protocol that utilizes a permeable black geotextile fabric deployed on top of an isothermal spring snowpack to induce advanced snowmelt. The method offers a reliable and cost-effective approach to induce snowmelt by passively increasing solar radiation absorption at the snow surface. In addition, control configurations with no snowpack manipulation are paired adjacent to the induced snowmelt plot for experimental comparison. Past and ongoing deployments in Colorado subalpine ecosystems indicate that this approach can accelerate snowmelt by 14-23 days, effectively mimicking snowmelt timing at lower elevations. This protocol can be applied to a variety of studies to understand the hydrological, ecological, and geochemical impacts of regional warming in snowpack dependent ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Probing T Cell 3D Mechanosensing With Magnetically-Actuated Structures

The ability of cells to recognize and respond to the mechanical properties of their environment is of increasing importance in T cell physiology. However, initial studies in this direction focused on planar hydrogel and elastomer surfaces, presenting several challenges in interpretation including difficulties in separating mechanical stiffness from changes in chemistry needed to modulate this property. We introduce here the use of magnetic fields to change the structural rigidity of microscale elastomer pillars loaded with superparamagnetic nanoparticles, independent of substrate chemistry. This magnetic modulation of rigidity, embodied as the pillar spring constant, changed the interaction of mouse naïve CD4 + T cells from a contractile morphology to one involving deep embedding into the array. Furthermore, increasing spring constant was associated with higher IL-2 secretion, showing a functional impact on mechanosensing. The system introduced here thus separates local substrate stiffness and long-range structural rigidity, revealing new facets of T cell interaction with their environment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Response of Biological Soil Crust Diazotrophs to Season, Altered Summer Precipitation, and Year-Round Increased Temperature in an Arid Grassland of the Colorado Plateau, USA

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts), which supply significant amounts of fixed nitrogen into terrestrial ecosystems worldwide (~33 Tg y -1 ), are likely to respond to changes in temperature and precipitation associated with climate change. Using nifH gene-based surveys, we explored variation in the diazotrophic community of biocrusts of the Colorado Plateau, USA in response to season (autumn vs. spring), as well as field manipulations that increased the frequency of small volume precipitation events and year-round soil temperature. Abundance of nifH genes in biocrusts ranged from 3 × 10 6 to 1 × 108 g -1 soil, and nifH from heterocystous cyanobacteria closely related to Scytonema hyalinum, Spirirestis rafaelensis, and Nostoc commune comprised >98% of the total. Although there was no apparent seasonal effect on total nifH gene abundance in the biocrusts, T-RFLP analysis revealed a strong seasonal pattern in nifH composition. Spirirestis nifH abundance was estimated to oscillate 1 to >2 orders of magnitude between autumn (low) and spring (high). A year-round increase of soil temperature (2–3°C) had little effect on the diazotroph community structure over 2 years. Altered summer precipitation had little impact on diazotroph community structure over the first 1.5 years of the study, when natural background patterns across years and seasons superseded any treatment effects. However, after the second summer of treatments, nifH abundance was 2.6-fold lower in biocrusts receiving altered precipitation. Heterocystous cyanobacteria were apparently more resilient to altered precipitation than other cyanobacteria. The results demonstrate that diazotrophic community composition of biocrusts in this semi-arid grassland undergoes strong seasonal shifts and that the abundance of its dominant members decreased in response to more frequent, small volume precipitation events.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The YNP metagenome project: environmental parameters responsible for microbial distribution in the Yellowstone geothermal ecosystem

The Yellowstone geothermal complex contains over 10,000 diverse geothermal features that host numerous phylogenetically deeply rooted and poorly understood archaea, bacteria, and viruses. Microbial communities in high-temperature environments are generally less diverse than soil, marine, sediment, or lake habitats and therefore offer a tremendous opportunity for studying the structure and function of different model microbial communities using environmental metagenomics. One of the broader goals of this study was to establish linkages among microbial distribution, metabolic potential, and environmental variables. Twenty geochemically distinct geothermal ecosystems representing a broad spectrum of Yellowstone hot-spring environments were used for metagenomic and geochemical analysis and included approximately equal numbers of: (1) phototrophic mats, (2) “filamentous streamer” communities, and (3) archaeal-dominated sediments. The metagenomes were analyzed using a suite of complementary and integrative bioinformatic tools, including phylogenetic and functional analysis of both individual sequence reads and assemblies of predominant phylotypes.This volume identifies major environmental determinants of a large number of thermophilic microbial lineages, many of which have not been fully described in the literature nor previously cultivated to enable functional and genomic analyses. Moreover, protein family abundance comparisons and in-depth analyses of specific genes and metabolic pathways relevant to these hot-spring environments reveal hallmark signatures of metabolic capabilities that parallel the distribution of phylotypes across specific types of geochemical environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Population genomic analysis reveals differential evolutionary histories and patterns of diversity across subgenomes and subpopulations of Brassica napus L.

The allotetraploid species Brassica napus L. is a global crop of major economic importance, providing canola oil (seed) and vegetables for human consumption and fodder and meal for livestock feed. Characterizing the genetic diversity present in the extant germplasm pool of B. napus is fundamental to better conserve, manage and utilize the genetic resources of this species. We used sequence-based genotyping to identify and genotype 30,881 SNPs in a diversity panel of 782 B. napus accessions, representing samples of winter and spring growth habits originating from 33 countries across Europe, Asia, and America. We detected strong population structure broadly concordant with growth habit and geography, and identified three major genetic groups: spring (SP), winter Europe (WE), and winter Asia (WA). Subpopulation-specific polymorphism patterns suggest enriched genetic diversity within the WA group and a smaller effective breeding population for the SP group compared to WE. Interestingly, the two subgenomes of B. napus appear to have different geographic origins, with phylogenetic analysis placing WE and WA as basal clades for the other subpopulations in the C and A subgenomes, respectively. Finally, we identified 16 genomic regions where the patterns of diversity differed markedly from the genome-wide average, several of which are suggestive of genomic inversions. The results obtained in this study constitute a valuable resource for worldwide breeding efforts and the genetic dissection and prediction of complex B. napus traits.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Vibrational Energy Harvesting Sensor Based on Linear and Rotational Electromechanical Effects

In this investigation, a magnetically coupled double-spring design is presented for harvesting low-level non-stationary random vibrational energy. The sensor relies on multimodal coupling between the translation and rotation of a two-spring magnet and coil system to widen the harvesting bandwidth. Energy methods are used to develop a model to characterize the electromechanical response of the system, the solution of which is obtained using stochastic techniques based on a particle swarm algorithm. This approach provides an efficient method to estimate system parameters that otherwise are difficult or impossible to determine with independent measurements. The experimental results demonstrate agreement with the theoretical predictions over a limited bandwidth. The sensor can effectively harvest non-stationary vibration energy down to 10 -4 g within a limited bandwidth of 130–150 Hz. The sensor prototype has an operational volume of 2.6 cm 3 with a calculated power density of 0.2 W/cm 3 . The sensor’s small size results in a coupling efficiency of approximately 6% across the tested bandwidth.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Precipitation Characteristics of Warm Season Weather Types in the Southeastern United States of America

Daily weather types (WTs) over the Southeast United States have been analyzed using 850 hPa winds from reanalysis data from March to October of 1979–2019. Six WTs were obtained. WTs 1–3 represent mid-latitude synoptic systems propagating eastward. WT4 is a summer-type pattern predominantly occurring in June–August, with the center of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) along the Gulf coast in the southern United States. WT5 is most frequent from August to middle October, with the NASH pushed further north and southerly winds over the northern Great Plains. An anticyclone centered at the Carolina coast characterizes WT6, which occurs in all months but is slightly more frequent in the spring and fall, especially in October, corresponding to fair weather in the region. WTs 1, 2 and 3 can persist for only a few days. WTs 4, 5 and 6 can have long spells of persistence. Besides self-persistence, the most observed progression loop is WT1 to WT2, to WT3, and then back to WT1, corresponding to eastward-propagating waves. WTs 4 and 5 are likely to show persistence, with long periods of consecutive days. WT6 usually persists but can also transfer to WT3, i.e., a change from fair weather in the Southeast U.S. to rainy weather in the Mississippi River Valley. A diurnal cycle of precipitation is apparent for each WT, especially over coastal plains. The nocturnal precipitation in central U.S. is associated with WT3. WTs 1–3 are more frequent in El Niño years, corresponding to stronger westerly wave activities and above normal rainfall in the Southeast U.S. in the spring. The positive rainfall anomaly in the Mississippi and Ohio River valley in El Niño years is also associated with more frequent WT3.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Groundwater Depth Overrides Tree-Species Effects on the Structure of Soil Microbial Communities Involved in Nitrogen Cycling in Plantation Forests

Microbial communities found in soil ecosystems play important roles in decomposing organic materials and recycling nutrients. A clear understanding on how biotic and abiotic factors influence the microbial community and its functional role in ecosystems is fundamental to terrestrial biogeochemistry and plant production. The purpose of this study was to investigate microbial communities and functional genes involved in nitrogen cycling as a function of groundwater depth (deep and shallow), tree species (pine and eucalypt), and season (spring and fall). Soil fungal, bacterial, and archaeal communities were determined by length heterogeneity polymerase chain reaction (LH-PCR). Soil ammonia oxidation archaeal (AOA) amoA gene, ammonia oxidation bacterial (AOB) amoA gene, nitrite oxidoreductase nrxA gene, and denitrifying bacterial narG, nirK, nirS, and nosZ genes were further studied using PCR and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE). Soil fungal and bacterial communities remained similar between tree species and groundwater depths, respectively, regardless of season. Soil archaeal communities remained similar between tree species but differed between groundwater depths in the spring only. Archaeal amoA for nitrification and bacterial nirK and nosZ genes for denitrification were detected in DGGE, whereas bacterial amoA and nrxA for nitrification and bacterial narG and nirS genes for denitrification were undetectable. The detected nitrification and denitrification communities varied significantly with groundwater depth. There was no significant difference of nitrifying archaeal amoA or denitrifying nirK communities between different tree species regardless of season. The seasonal difference in microbial communities and functional genes involved in nitrogen cycling suggests microorganisms exhibit seasonal dynamics that likely impact relative rates of nitrification and denitrification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Site- and Species-Specific Influences on Sub-Alpine Conifer Growth in Mt. Rainier National Park, USA

Identifying the factors that influence the climate sensitivity of treeline species is critical to understanding carbon sequestration, forest dynamics, and conservation in high elevation forest/meadow ecotones. Using tree cores from four sub-alpine conifer species collected from three sides of Mt. Rainier, WA, USA, we investigated the influences of species identity and sites with different local climates on radial growth–climate relationships. We created chronologies for each species at each site, determined influential plant-relevant annual and seasonal climatic variables influencing growth, and investigated how the strength of climate sensitivity varied across species and location. Overall, similar climate variables constrained growth on all three sides of the mountain for each of the four study species. Summer warmth positively influenced radial growth, whereas snow, spring warmth, previous summer warmth, and spring humidity negatively influenced growth. We discovered only a few subtle differences in the climate sensitivity of co-occurring species at the same site and between the same species at different sites in pairwise comparisons. A model including species by climate interactions provided the best balance between parsimony and fit, but did not lead to substantially greater predictive power relative to a model without site or species interactions. Our results imply that at treeline in moist temperate regions like Mt. Rainier, the same climatic variables drive annual variation in growth across species and locations, despite species differences in physiology and site differences in mean climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrating Deep Learning and Hydrodynamic Modeling to Improve the Great Lakes Forecast

The Laurentian Great Lakes, one of the world’s largest surface freshwater systems, pose a modeling challenge in seasonal forecast and climate projection. While physics-based hydrodynamic modeling is a fundamental approach, improving the forecast accuracy remains critical. In recent years, machine learning (ML) has quickly emerged in geoscience applications, but its application to the Great Lakes hydrodynamic prediction is still in its early stages. This work is the first one to explore a deep learning approach to predicting spatiotemporal distributions of the lake surface temperature (LST) in the Great Lakes. Our study shows that the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, trained with the limited data from hypothetical monitoring networks, can provide consistent and robust performance. The LSTM prediction captured the LST spatiotemporal variabilities across the five Great Lakes well, suggesting an effective and efficient way for monitoring network design in assisting the ML-based forecast. Furthermore, we employed an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) technique named SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to uncover how the features impact the LSTM prediction. Our XAI analysis shows air temperature is the most influential feature for predicting LST in the trained LSTM. The relatively large bias in the LSTM prediction during the spring and fall was associated with substantial heterogeneity of air temperature during the two seasons. In contrast, the physics-based hydrodynamic model performed better in spring and fall yet exhibited relatively large biases during the summer stratification period. Finally, we developed a statistical integration of the hydrodynamic modeling and deep learning results based on the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE). The integration further enhanced prediction accuracy, suggesting its potential for next-generation Great Lakes forecast systems.

Xue, Pengfei (ORCID:000000025702421X)↗

Polar Aerosol Vertical Structures and Characteristics Observed with a High Spectral Resolution Lidar at the ARM NSA Observatory

Aerosol vertical distributions impact both the direct and indirect radiative effects of aerosols. High Spectra Resolution Lidar (HSRL) separates between atmospheric molecular signals and aerosol particle signals and therefore can provide reliable measurements of aerosol properties. Six years of HSRL measurements between 2014 and 2019 from the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) North Slope of Alaska (NSA) atmospheric observatory at Utqiaqvik are used to statistically analyze Arctic aerosol vertical distributions. The annual cycle of aerosol vertical distributions in terms of aerosol particulate backscatter coefficient ($β_p$), lidar scattering ratio (SR), and aerosol particulate depolarization ratio ($δ_p$) profiles at the wavelength of 532 nm shows that Arctic Haze events are prevalent in later winter and spring at the NSA site. Mineral dust is frequently presented in strong aerosol layers in the spring, fall, and winter seasons. Over the summer season, the NSA site has large aerosol loadings that are dominated by small spherical aerosol particles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seasonal Variation of Dust Aerosol Vertical Distribution in Arctic Based on Polarized Micropulse Lidar Measurement

This study investigates the seasonal variation of dust aerosol vertical distribution using polarized Micropulse lidar (MPL) measurements at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) North Slope of Alaska (NSA) observatory from January 2013 to September 2017. For the first time, multi-year aerosol backscatter coefficients are retrieved at the ARM NSA site from MPL measurements and are consistent with co-located high spectral resolution lidar (HSRL) measurements. The high-quality aerosol backscatter coefficient retrievals are used to derive the particle depolarization ratio (PDR) at the wavelength of 532 nm, which is used to identify the presence of dust aerosols. The annual cycles of the vertical distributions of dust backscatter coefficient and PDR and dust aerosol optical depth (DAOD) show that aerosol loading has a maximum in late winter and early spring but a minimum in late summer and early autumn. Vertically, dust aerosol occurs in the entire troposphere in spring and winter and in the low and middle troposphere in summer and autumn. Because dust aerosols are effective ice nuclei, the seasonality of dust aerosol vertical distribution has important implications for the Arctic climate through aerosol–cloud–radiation interactions, primarily through impacting mixed-phase cloud processes.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Integrated Modeling Approach for the Development of Climate-Informed, Actionable Information

Flooding is a prevalent natural disaster with both short and long-term social, economic, and infrastructure impacts. Changes in intensity and frequency of precipitation (including rain, snow, and rain on snow) events create challenges for the planning and management of resilient infrastructure and communities. While there is general acknowledgement that new infrastructure design should account for future climate change, no clear methods or actionable information is available to community planners and designers to ensure resilient design considering an uncertain climate future. This research used climate projections to drive high-resolution hydrology and flood models to evaluate social, economic, and infrastructure resilience for the Snohomish Watershed, WA, U.S.A. The proposed model chain has been calibrated and validated. Based on the established model chain, the peaks of precipitation and streamflows were found to shift from spring and summer to earlier winter season. The nonstationarity of peak discharges was discovered with more frequent and severe flood risks projected. The peak discharges were also projected to decrease for a certain period in the near future, which might be due to the reduced rain-on-snow events. This research was expected to provide a clear method for the incorporation of climate science in flood resilience analysis and to also provide actionable information relative to the frequency and intensity of future precipitation events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modelling of long-range transport of Southeast Asia biomass-burning aerosols to Taiwan and their radiative forcings over East Asia

Biomass burning is a major source of aerosols and air pollutants during the springtime in Southeast Asia. At Lulin mountain background station (elevation 2862 m) in Taiwan, the concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3) and particulate matter particles with diameter less than 10 μm (PM10), were measured around 150-250 ppb, 40-60 ppb, and 10-30μg/m3, respectively at spring time (February-April) during 2006 and 2009, which are about 2~3 times higher than those in other seasons. Observations and simulation results indicate that the higher concentrations during the spring time are clearly related to biomass burning plumes transported from the Indochina Peninsula of Southeast Asia. The spatial distribution of high aerosols optical depth (AOD) were identified by the satellite measurement and Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) ground observation, and could be reasonably captured by the WRF-Chem model during the study period of 15-18 March, 2008. AOD reached as high as 0.8-1.0 in Indochina ranging from 10 to 22°N and 95 to 107°E. Organic carbon (OC) is a major contributor of AOD over Indochina according to simulation results. The contributor of AOD from black carbon (BC) is minor when compared with OC over the Indochina. However, the direct absorption radiative forcing of BC in the atmosphere could reach 35-50 W m-2, which is about 8-10 times higher than that of OC. The belt shape of radiation reduction at surface from Indochina to Taiwan could be as high 20-40 W m-2 during the study period. The implication of the radiative forcing from biomass burning aerosols and their impact on the regional climate in East Asia is our major concern.

aerosols optical depth↗

Inherent Anharmonicity of Harmonic Solids

Atomic vibrations, in the form of phonons, are foundational in describing the thermal behavior of materials. The possible frequencies of phonons in materials are governed by the complex bonding between atoms, which is physically represented by a spring-mass model that can account for interactions (spring forces) between the atoms (masses). The lowest-order, harmonic , approximation only considers linear forces between atoms and is thought incapable of explaining phenomena like thermal expansion and thermal conductivity, which are attributed to nonlinear, anharmonic , interactions. Here, we show that the kinetic energy of atoms in a solid produces a pressure much like the kinetic energy of atoms in a gas does. This vibrational or phonon pressure naturally increases with temperature, as it does in a gas and therefore results in a thermal expansion. Because thermal expansion thermodynamically defines a Grüneisen parameter γ , which is a typical metric of anharmonicity, we show that even a harmonic solid will necessarily have some anharmonicity. A consequence of this phonon pressure model is a harmonic estimation of the Grüneisen parameter as γ ≈ 3 / 2 3 − 4 x 2 / 1 + 2 x 2 , where x = v t / v l is the ratio of the transverse and longitudinal speeds of sound. We demonstrate the immediate utility of this model by developing a high-throughput harmonic estimate of lattice thermal conductivity that is comparable to other state-of-the-art estimations. By linking harmonic and anharmonic properties explicitly, this study provokes new ideas about the fundamental nature of anharmonicity, while also providing a basis for new material engineering design metrics.

42 ENGINEERING↗