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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A new metrics framework for quantifying and intercomparing atmospheric rivers in observations, reanalyses, and climate models

We present a new atmospheric river (AR) analysis and benchmarking tool, namely Atmospheric River Metrics Package (ARMP). It includes a suite of new AR metrics that are designed for quick analysis of AR characteristics via statistics in gridded climate datasets such as model output and reanalysis. This package can be used for climate model evaluation in comparison with reanalysis and observational products. Integrated metrics such as mean bias and spatial pattern correlation are efficient for diagnosing systematic AR biases in climate models. For example, the package identifies the fact that, in CMIP5 and CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6) models, AR tracks in the South Atlantic are positioned farther poleward compared to ERA5 reanalysis, while in the South Pacific, tracks are generally biased towards the Equator. For the landfalling AR peak season, we find that most climate models simulate a completely opposite seasonal cycle over western Africa. This tool can also be used for identifying and characterizing structural differences among different AR detectors (ARDTs). For example, ARs detected with the Mundhenk algorithm exhibit systematically larger size, width, and length compared to the TempestExtremes (TE) method. The AR metrics developed from this work can be routinely applied for model benchmarking and during the development cycle to trace performance evolution across model versions or generations and set objective targets for the improvement of models. They can also be used by operational centers to perform near-real-time climate and extreme event impact assessments as part of their forecast cycle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1983

A stochastic atmospheric model for remote sensing applications

There are many factors which reduce the accuracy of classification of objects in the satellite remote sensing of Earth's surface. One important factor is the variability in the scattering and absorptive properties of the atmospheric components such as particulates and the variable gases. For multispectral remote sensing of the Earth's surface in the visible and infrared parts of the spectrum the atmospheric particulates are a major source of variability in the received signal. It is difficult to design a sensor which will determine the unknown atmospheric components by remote sensing methods, at least to the accuracy needed for multispectral classification. The problem of spatial and temporal variations in the atmospheric quantities which can affect the measured radiances are examined. A method based upon the stochastic nature of the atmospheric components was developed, and, using actual data the statistical parameters needed for inclusion into a radiometric model was generated. Methods are then described for an improved correction of radiances. These algorithms will then result in a more accurate and consistent classification procedure.

Turner, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Environmental analysis using integrated GIS and remotely sensed data - Some research needs and priorities

This paper discusses some basic scientific issues and research needs in the joint processing of remotely sensed and GIS data for environmental analysis. Two general topics are treated in detail: (1) scale dependence of geographic data and the analysis of multiscale remotely sensed and GIS data, and (2) data transformations and information flow during data processing. The discussion of scale dependence focuses on the theory and applications of spatial autocorrelation, geostatistics, and fractals for characterizing and modeling spatial variation. Data transformations during processing are described within the larger framework of geographical analysis, encompassing sampling, cartography, remote sensing, and GIS. Development of better user interfaces between image processing, GIS, database management, and statistical software is needed to expedite research on these and other impediments to integrated analysis of remotely sensed and GIS data.

Davis, Frank W.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Constraints on galactic distributions of gamma-ray burst sources from BATSE observations

The paradigm that gamma-ray bursts originate from Galactic sources is studied in detail using the angular and intensity distributions observed by the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) on NASA's Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO). Monte Carlo models of gamma-ray burst spatial distributions and luminosity functions are used to simulate bursts, which are then folded through mathematical models of BATSE selection effects. The observed and computed angular intensity distributions are analyzed using modifications of standard statistical homogeneity and isotropy studies. Analysis of the BATSE angular and intensity distributions greatly constrains the origins and luminosities of burst sources. In particular, it appears that no single population of sources confined to a Galactic disk, halo, or localized spiral arm satisfactorily explains BATSE observations and that effects of the burst luminosity function are secondary when considering such models. One family of models that still satisfies BATSE observations comprises sources located in an extended spherical Galactic corona. Coronal models are limited to small ranges of burst luminosity and core radius, and the allowed parameter space for such models shrinks with each new burst BATSE observes. Multiple-population models of bursts are found to work only if (1) the primary population accounts for the general isotropy and inhomogeneity seen in the BATSE observations and (2) secondary populations either have characteristics similar to the primary population or contain numbers that are small relative to the primary population.

Hakkila, Jon↗
NASA NTRS2002

Sensitivity of Lower Stratospheric Assimilated Ozone on Error Covariance Modeling and Data Selection

Assimilated ozone is produced at the NASA/Goddard Data Assimilation Office by blending ozone retrieved from the Solar Backscatter UltraViolet/2 (SBUV/2) instrument and the Earth Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (EP TOMS) measurements into an off-line transport model. The current system tends to overestimate the amount of lower stratospheric ozone. This is a region where ozone plays a key role in the forcing of climate. A biased ozone field in this region will adversely impact calculations of the stratosphere-troposphere exchange and, when used as a first guess in retrievals, the values determined from satellite observations. Since these are all important applications of assimilated ozone products, effort is being directed towards reducing this bias. The SBUV ozone data have a coarse vertical resolution with increased uncertainty below the ozone maximum, and TOMS provides only total ozone columns. Thus, the assimilated ozone in the lower stratosphere, and its vertical distribution in particular, are only weakly constrained by the incoming SBUV and TOMS data. Consequently, the assimilated ozone distribution should be sensitive to changes in inputs to the statistical analysis scheme. Accordingly, the sensitivity of the assimilated lower stratospheric ozone fields to changes in the TOMS error-covariance modeling and the SBUV data selection has been investigated. The use of a spatially correlated TOMS error covariance model led to improvements in the product. However, withholding the SBUV/2 data for the layer between 63 and 126 hPa typically degraded the product, a result which vindicates the use of this layer ozone product, despite its known errors. These efforts to improve the lower stratospheric distribution will be extended to include a more advanced forecast error covariance model, and by assimilating ozone products from new instruments on Envisat and EOS Aura.

Stajner, Ivanka↗
NASA NTRS2017

Classifying Multi-Model Wheat Yield Impact Response Surfaces Showing Sensitivity to Temperature and Precipitation Change

Crop growth simulation models can differ greatly in their treatment of key processes and hence in their response to environmental conditions. Here, we used an ensemble of 26 process-based wheat models applied at sites across a European transect to compare their sensitivity to changes in temperature (minus 2 to plus 9 degrees Centigrade) and precipitation (minus 50 to plus 50 percent). Model results were analysed by plotting them as impact response surfaces (IRSs), classifying the IRS patterns of individual model simulations, describing these classes and analysing factors that may explain the major differences in model responses. The model ensemble was used to simulate yields of winter and spring wheat at four sites in Finland, Germany and Spain. Results were plotted as IRSs that show changes in yields relative to the baseline with respect to temperature and precipitation. IRSs of 30-year means and selected extreme years were classified using two approaches describing their pattern. The expert diagnostic approach (EDA) combines two aspects of IRS patterns: location of the maximum yield (nine classes) and strength of the yield response with respect to climate (four classes), resulting in a total of 36 combined classes defined using criteria pre-specified by experts. The statistical diagnostic approach (SDA) groups IRSs by comparing their pattern and magnitude, without attempting to interpret these features. It applies a hierarchical clustering method, grouping response patterns using a distance metric that combines the spatial correlation and Euclidian distance between IRS pairs. The two approaches were used to investigate whether different patterns of yield response could be related to different properties of the crop models, specifically their genealogy, calibration and process description. Although no single model property across a large model ensemble was found to explain the integrated yield response to temperature and precipitation perturbations, the application of the EDA and SDA approaches revealed their capability to distinguish: (i) stronger yield responses to precipitation for winter wheat than spring wheat; (ii) differing strengths of response to climate changes for years with anomalous weather conditions compared to period-average conditions; (iii) the influence of site conditions on yield patterns; (iv) similarities in IRS patterns among models with related genealogy; (v) similarities in IRS patterns for models with simpler process descriptions of root growth and water uptake compared to those with more complex descriptions; and (vi) a closer correspondence of IRS patterns in models using partitioning schemes to represent yield formation than in those using a harvest index. Such results can inform future crop modelling studies that seek to exploit the diversity of multi-model ensembles, by distinguishing ensemble members that span a wide range of responses as well as those that display implausible behaviour or strong mutual similarities.

Classification; Climate change; Crop model; Ensemb↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hyperspectral Reflectance for Measuring Canopy‐Level Nutrients and Photosynthesis in a Salt Marsh

Abstract Salt marsh ecosystems are underrepresented in process‐based models due to their unique location across the terrestrial–aquatic interface. Particularly, the role of leaf nutrients on canopy photosynthesis (F A ) remains unclear, despite their relevance for regulating vegetation growth. We combined multiyear information of canopy‐level nutrients and eddy covariance measurements with canopy surface hyperspectral remote sensing (CSHRS) to quantify the spatial and temporal variability of F A in a temperate salt marsh. We found that F A showed a positive relationship with canopy‐level N at the ecosystem scale and for areas dominated by Spartina cynosuroides , but not for areas dominated by short S. alterniflora . F A showed a positive relationship with canopy‐level P, K, and Na, but a negative relationship with Fe, for areas associated with S. cynosuroides , S. alterniflora , and at the ecosystem scale. We used partial least squares regression (PLSR) with CSHRS and found statistically significant data–model agreements to predict canopy‐level nutrients and F A . The red‐edge electromagnetic region and ∼770 nm showed the highest contribution of variance in PLSR models for canopy‐level nutrients and F A , but we propose that underlying sediment biogeochemistry can complicate interpretation of reflectance measurements. Our findings highlight the relevance of spatial variability in salt marshes vegetation and the promising application of CSHRS for linking information of canopy‐level nutrients with F A . We call for further development of canopy surface hyperspectral methods and analyses across salt marshes to improve our understanding of how these ecosystems will respond to global environmental change.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Time-Series Gap-Filling Methods for Solar Irradiance Applications

A complete solar resource data set is essential for any stage of a solar energy project - from feasibility studies to daily operations. But measured or modeled solar resource data are prone to data gaps and data quality issues. To mitigate these issues, a data imputation process should be implemented to obtain a complete and reliable temporal and spatial data series. This study focused on imputing temporal scales by applying random and artificial data gaps and then implementing eight imputation methods, including the Kalman filtering and smoothing and stine interpolations. These methods were implemented on 1-minute to half hourly irradiance data for 1 year using a few locations from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) and ground measurement data set. The results demonstrated that some of the simpler methods, such as the stine and linear interpolation methods, were the relatively best models based on the statistical metrics for imputing NSRDB and ground measurement data, respectively.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2019

Large Contribution of Meteorological Factors to Inter-Decadal Changes in Regional Aerosol Optical Depth

Aerosol optical depth (AOD) has become a crucial metric for assessing global climate change. Although global and regional AOD trends have been studied extensively, it remains unclear what factors are driving the inter-decadal variations in regional AOD and how to quantify the relative contribution of each dominant factor. This study used a long-term (1980–2016) aerosol dataset from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis, along with two satellite-based AOD datasets (MODIS/Terra and MISR) from 2001 to 2016, to investigate the long-term trends in global and regional aerosol loading. Statistical models based on emission factors and meteorological parameters were developed to identify the main factors driving the inter-decadal changes of regional AOD and to quantify their contribution. Evaluation of the MERRA-2 AOD with the ground-based measurements of AERONET indicated significant spatial agreement on the global scale (r= 0.85, root-mean-square error = 0.12, mean fractional error = 38.7 %, fractional gross error = 9.86 % and index of agreement = 0.94). However, when AOD observations from the China Aerosol Remote Sensing Network (CARSNET) were employed for independent verification, the results showed that MERRA-2 AODs generally underestimated CARSNET AODs in China (relative mean bias = 0.72 and fractional gross error =−34.3 %). In general, MERRA-2 was able to quantitatively reproduce the annual and seasonal AOD trends on both regional and global scales, as observed by MODIS/Terra, although some differences were found when compared to MISR. Over the 37-year period in this study, significant decreasing trends were observed over Europe and the eastern United States. In contrast, eastern China and southern Asia showed AOD increases, but the increasing trend of the former reversed sharply in the most recent decade. The statistical analyses suggested that the meteorological parameters explained a larger proportion of the AOD variability (20.4 %–72.8 %) over almost all regions of interest (ROIs) during 1980–2014 when compared with emission factors (0 %–56 %). Further analysis also showed that SO2 was the dominant emission factor, explaining 12.7 %–32.6 % of the variation in AOD over anthropogenic-aerosol-dominant regions, while black carbon or organic carbon was the leading factor over the biomass-burning-dominant (BBD) regions, contributing 24.0 %–27.7 % of the variation. Additionally, wind speed was found to be the leading meteorological parameter, explaining 11.8 %–30.3 % of the variance over the mineral-dust-dominant regions, while ambient humidity (including soil moisture and relative humidity) was the top meteorological parameter over the BBD regions, accounting for 11.7 %–35.5 % of the variation. The results of this study indicate that the variation in meteorological parameters is a key factor in determining the inter-decadal change in regional AOD.

Huizheng Che↗
NASA NTRS1998

Multi-Scale Fractal Analysis of Image Texture and Pattern

Fractals embody important ideas of self-similarity, in which the spatial behavior or appearance of a system is largely independent of scale. Self-similarity is defined as a property of curves or surfaces where each part is indistinguishable from the whole, or where the form of the curve or surface is invariant with respect to scale. An ideal fractal (or monofractal) curve or surface has a constant dimension over all scales, although it may not be an integer value. This is in contrast to Euclidean or topological dimensions, where discrete one, two, and three dimensions describe curves, planes, and volumes. Theoretically, if the digital numbers of a remotely sensed image resemble an ideal fractal surface, then due to the self-similarity property, the fractal dimension of the image will not vary with scale and resolution. However, most geographical phenomena are not strictly self-similar at all scales, but they can often be modeled by a stochastic fractal in which the scaling and self-similarity properties of the fractal have inexact patterns that can be described by statistics. Stochastic fractal sets relax the monofractal self-similarity assumption and measure many scales and resolutions in order to represent the varying form of a phenomenon as a function of local variables across space. In image interpretation, pattern is defined as the overall spatial form of related features, and the repetition of certain forms is a characteristic pattern found in many cultural objects and some natural features. Texture is the visual impression of coarseness or smoothness caused by the variability or uniformity of image tone or color. A potential use of fractals concerns the analysis of image texture. In these situations it is commonly observed that the degree of roughness or inexactness in an image or surface is a function of scale and not of experimental technique. The fractal dimension of remote sensing data could yield quantitative insight on the spatial complexity and information content contained within these data. A software package known as the Image Characterization and Modeling System (ICAMS) was used to explore how fractal dimension is related to surface texture and pattern. The ICAMS software was verified using simulated images of ideal fractal surfaces with specified dimensions. The fractal dimension for areas of homogeneous land cover in the vicinity of Huntsville, Alabama was measured to investigate the relationship between texture and resolution for different land covers.

Emerson, Charles W.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Seeking Repeating Anthropogenic Seismic Sources: Implications for Seismic Velocity Monitoring at Fault Zones

Abstract Seismic velocities in rocks are highly sensitive to changes in permanent deformation and fluid content. The temporal variation of seismic velocity during the preparation phase of earthquakes has been well documented in laboratories but rarely observed in nature. It has been recently found that some anthropogenic, high‐frequency (>1 Hz) seismic sources are powerful enough to generate body waves that travel down to a few kilometers and can be used to monitor fault zones at seismogenic depth. Anthropogenic seismic sources typically have fixed spatial distribution and provide new perspectives for velocity monitoring. In this work, we propose a systematic workflow to seek such powerful seismic sources in a rapid and straightforward manner. We tackle the problem from a statistical point of view, considering that persistent, powerful seismic sources yield highly coherent correlation functions (CFs) between pairs of seismic sensors. The algorithm is tested in California and Japan. Multiple sites close to fault zones show high‐frequency CFs stable for an extended period of time. These findings have great potential for monitoring fault zones, including the San Jacinto Fault and the Ridgecrest area in Southern California, Napa in Northern California, and faults in central Japan. However, extra steps, such as beamforming or polarization analysis, are required to determine the dominant seismic sources and study the source characteristics, which are crucial to interpreting the velocity monitoring results. Train tremors identified by the present approach have been successfully used for seismic velocity monitoring of the San Jacinto Fault in previous studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Mira-Titan Universe. III. Emulation of the Halo Mass Function

We construct an emulator for the halo mass function over group and cluster mass scales for a range of cosmologies, including the effects of dynamical dark energy and massive neutrinos. The emulator is based on the recently completed Mira-Titan Universe suite of cosmological N-body simulations. The main set of simulations spans 111 cosmological models with 2.1 Gpc boxes. We extract halo catalogs in the redshift range z = [0.0, 2.0] and for masses M-200c >= 10(13)M(circle dot)/h. The emulator covers an eight-dimensional hypercube spanned by {Omega(m)h(2), Omega(b)h(2), Omega(nu)h(2), sigma(8), h, n(s), w(0), w(a)}; spatial flatness is assumed. We obtain smooth halo mass functions by fitting piecewise second-order polynomials to the halo catalogs and employ Gaussian process regression to construct the emulator while keeping track of the statistical noise in the input halo catalogs and uncertainties in the regression process. For redshifts z less than or similar to 1, the typical emulator precision is better than 2% for 10(13)-10(14)M(circle dot)/h and <10<^> M similar or equal to 101(circle dot)(54)/h. For comparison, fitting functions using the traditional universal form for the halo mass function can be biased at up to 30% at M similar or equal to 10(144)M(circle dot)/h for z = 0. Our emulator is publicly available at https://github.com/SebastianBocquet/MiraTitanHMFemulator.

cosmology: theory↗
NASA NTRS1975

Satellite disintegration dynamics

The subject of satellite disintegration is examined in detail. Elements of the orbits of individual fragments, determined by DOD space surveillance systems, are used to accurately predict the time and place of fragmentation. Dual time independent and time dependent analyses are performed for simulated and real breakups. Methods of statistical mechanics are used to study the evolution of the fragment clouds. The fragments are treated as an ensemble of non-interacting particles. A solution of Liouville's equation is obtained which enables the spatial density to be calculated as a function of position, time and initial velocity distribution.

Dasenbrock, R. R.↗
NASA NTRS1988

The velocity structure and turbulence at the center of the Orion Nebula

Using the Coude Feed System of the Kitt Peak National Observatory at its highest possible dispersion and a CCD detector with wide dynamic range it was possible to examine in detail the radial and turbulent velocities of the Orion Nebula at the seeing limit. For the first time, multiple components of the spectral lines were resolved and the Gaussian profiles fit to them. Using four different observing runs, two circular areas 2 minutes in diameter were observed, the first centered on the theta sup 1 Orionis and the second centered on theta sup 2 Orionis. The velocity resolution of 1 km/s combined with the angular resolution of 2 seconds allowed observation in detail at line splitting as well as the location and measurement of high internal motions, about -50 km/s with respect to the bulk of ionized matter. Because over 900 different positions were measured, modern statistical techniques were used for the analysis of turbulence, so that the dispersion relation and the structure function could be calculated and compared with predictions of the Kolmogorov theory. The random motions showed correlation with spatial separation, as expected for turbulence; but comparison with predictions of the classical theory for nebular turbulence showed poor agreement. If Kolmogorov theory applies, then the energy must be input at many scales.

Castaneda, Hector O.↗
NASA NTRS1990

The systematic radial downflow in the transition region of the quiet sun from limb-to-limb observations of the C IV resonance lines

This paper presents absolute velocities of C IV 1548, 1550 nm measured as a function of position along the solar equator, which was free of both active regions and coronal holes, and uniformly representative of the quiet sun. These observations were made with moderate spatial resolution (18 arcsec) using an EUV spectrometer dedicated to measuring absolute wavelengths (velocities) by direct comparison with a platinum spectrum generated on board the sounding rocket. On the assumption that systematic horizontal motions cancel statistically so that the line-of-sight velocities approach zero at the limb, a net radial downflow of 7.5 + or - 1.0 km/sec was found. The assumption was tested using the wavelength reference and found to be valid within the absolute accuracy of the rest wavelengths of the C IV lines.

Rottman, Gary J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Modeling of the reactant conversion rate in a turbulent shear flow

Results are presented of direct numerical simulations (DNS) of spatially developing shear flows under the influence of infinitely fast chemical reactions of the type A + B yields Products. The simulation results are used to construct the compositional structure of the scalar field in a statistical manner. The results of this statistical analysis indicate that the use of a Beta density for the probability density function (PDF) of an appropriate Shvab-Zeldovich mixture fraction provides a very good estimate of the limiting bounds of the reactant conversion rate within the shear layer. This provides a strong justification for the implementation of this density in practical modeling of non-homogeneous turbulent reacting flows. However, the validity of the model cannot be generalized for predictions of higher order statistical quantities. A closed form analytical expression is presented for predicting the maximum rate of reactant conversion in non-homogeneous reacting turbulence.

Frankel, S. H.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Numerical simulation of two-dimensional spatially-developing mixing layers

Two-dimensional, incompressible, spatially developing mixing layer simulations are performed at Re = 10(exp 2) and 10(exp 4) with two classes of perturbations applied at the inlet boundary; combinations of discrete modes from linear stability theory, and a broad spectrum of modes derived from experimentally measured velocity spectra. The effect of the type and strength of inlet perturbations on vortex dynamics and time-averaged properties are explored. Two-point spatial velocity and autocorrelations are used to estimate the size and lifetime of the resulting coherent structures and to explore possible feedback effects. The computed time-averaged properties such as mean velocity profiles, turbulent statistics, and spread rates show good agreement with experimentally measured values. It is shown that by forcing with a broad spectrum of modes derived from an experimental energy spectrum many experimentally observed phenomena can be reproduced by a 2-D simulation. The strength of the forcing merely affected the length required for the dominant coherent structures to become fully-developed. Thus intensities comparable to those of the background turbulence in many wind tunnel experiments produced the same results, given sufficient simulation length.

Wilson, R. V.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Observational Review of Gamma-Ray Bursts

The observed gamma-ray temporal, spectral, intensity and spatial distribution characteristics of GRBs (Gamma Ray Bursts), primarily from data obtained from the Compton Observatory, will be described. The talk will concentrate on recent studies of burst properties, correlations of GRB parameters and other statistical studies that have only recently come to light with the unprecedented sample of over two thousand GRBs, along with some mention of studies in progress by members of the BATSE (Burst and Transient Source Experiment) team. Recent studies of possible observational biases, un-triggered GRBs and threshold calculations for BATSE will also be described.

Fishman, Gerald J.↗