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DOE OSTI2019

Vehicle energy consumption estimation using large scale simulations and machine learning methods

Vehicle energy consumption and powertrain operations for future vehicle powertrain technologies are predicted through full-vehicle simulations using Autonomie, a simulation tool developed at Argonne National Laboratory. Over 1 million vehicles, with different powertrain types (conventional and numerous electrified powertrains) and component technologies (advanced engines, batteries, electrical machines, light weighting) are simulated for outputs including vehicle fuel economy and cost. Despite the ability of Autonomic to predict fuel economy given various combination of vehicle inputs, the full-vehicle simulation is very time-consuming. It takes approximately 84 h to simulate for 33,060 vehicles even using distributed computing on a cluster of 128 worker nodes. Moreover, Autonomic is unable to populate a continuous output space through simulation since it only yields outputs with discrete values instead of an input-output relation. This paper proposes a novel large-scale learning and prediction process (LSLPP) via machine learning approaches to answer the need for a continuous space of vehicle fuel economy and a more efficient simulation process. By learning in a supervised fashion to discover structures in data, the machine learning approaches seek to train a model that can explain the data with which we can perform prediction over unseen data. As such, we are able to accomplish analytic continuation on the current discrete space of simulation results. In addition, we present a random sampling -based numerosity reduction algorithm incorporated in LSLPP that reduces simulation runs and improves efficiency of data procurement. We analytically derive a theoretical bound in order to guarantee the effectiveness of our algorithm. We also compare random sampling to stratified sampling and suggest sampling strategies. A user-friendly tool is developed to support the process. Our experimental results confirm that the proposed LSLPP is able to greatly accelerate prediction and analysis of vehicle fuel economy. The output of this study is used by the US government to evaluate the impact of its R&D funding on energy security and CO 2 emission as well as for the setting of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

gRASPA

GPU Monte Carlo Simulation Code with a taste of RASPA We present enhancements in Monte Carlo simulation speed and functionality within an open-source code, gRASPA, which uses graphical processing units (GPUs) to achieve significant performance improvements compared to serial, CPU implementations of Monte Carlo. The code supports a wide range of Monte Carlo simulations, including canonical ensemble (NVT), grand canonical, NVT Gibbs, Widom test particle insertions, and continuous-fractional component Monte Carlo. Implementation of grand canonical transition matrix Monte Carlo (GC-TMMC) and a novel feature to allow different moves for the different components of metal-organic framework (MOF) structures exemplify the capabilities of gRASPA for precise free energy calculations and enhanced adsorption studies, respectively. The introduction of a High-Throughput Computing (HTC) mode permits many Monte Carlo simulations on a single GPU device for accelerated materials discovery. The code can incorporate machine learning (ML) potentials. The open-source nature of gRASPA promotes reproducibility and openness in science, and users may add features to the code and optimize it for their own purposes. The code is written in CUDA/C++ and SYCL/C++ to support different GPU vendors. The gRASPA code is publicly available at https://github.com/snurr-group/gRASPA.

Li, Zhao [Purdue/Northwestern/Notre Dame Universit↗

DOE OSTI2018

Sensitivities of Simulated Satellite Views of Clouds to Subgrid-Scale Overlap and Condensate Heterogeneity

Satellite simulators are often used to account for limitations in satellite retrievals of cloud properties in comparisons between models and satellite observations. The purpose of this framework is to enable more robust evaluation of model cloud properties, so that differences between models and observations can more confidently be attributed to model errors. A critical step in this process is accounting for the difference between the spatial scales at which cloud properties are retrieved with those at which clouds are simulated in global models. In this study, we create a series of sensitivity tests using 4-km global model output from the multiscale modeling framework to evaluate the sensitivity of simulated satellite retrievals to common assumptions about cloud and precipitation overlap and condensate variability used in climate models whose grid spacing is many tens to hundreds of kilometers. We find the simulated retrievals are sensitive to these assumptions. Using maximum-random overlap with homogeneous cloud and precipitation condensate leads to errors in Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project-simulated cloud cover and in CloudSat-simulated radar reflectivity that are significant compared to typical differences between the model simulations and observations. A more realistic treatment of unresolved clouds and precipitation is shown to substantially reduce these errors. The sensitivity to these assumptions underscores the need for the adoption of more realistic subcolumn treatments in models and the need for consistency among subcolumn assumptions between models and simulators to ensure that simulator-diagnosed errors are consistent with the model formulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Subpolar North Atlantic Water Mass Transformation and Overturning in Eddying and Non‐Eddying Simulations

Buoyancy forcing in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean (SPNA) is an important driver of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). To advance understanding of the mechanisms connecting the two processes and their relative importance in sub-basins within the SPNA, we apply the Water Mass Transformation Framework to a matched-pair of forced, ocean-sea ice simulations configured at eddying and non-eddying resolution. Within the first decade of simulation, the non-eddying simulation produces a weak AMOC, ~11 Sv at 26.5 ° N, while the AMOC in the eddying simulation is more realistic and is thus analyzed for comparison. Surface water mass transformation and boundary transport are calculated in both density and temperature–salinity coordinates in three separate deep water formation regions, the Iceland Basin, the Irminger Sea and Labrador Sea, during the first decade of both simulations. We identify strong surface freshening in the Irminger and Labrador seas in the non-eddying simulation during the AMOC decline. This freshening significantly reduces the density of the surface outcrops where surface water mass formation occurs, essentially removing this contribution to deep water formation. Concurrently, boundary transports in these two regions are warmer and saltier in the non-eddying simulation compared to the eddying simulation where the density of surface water mass formation is stable. The warming and salinification of boundary transports in the non-eddying simulation is interpreted as an obstacle to deep water formation. Labrador Sea surface water mass transformation is important, despite its small contribution to buoyancy overturning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Variational fast forwarding for quantum simulation beyond the coherence time

Abstract Trotterization-based, iterative approaches to quantum simulation (QS) are restricted to simulation times less than the coherence time of the quantum computer (QC), which limits their utility in the near term. Here, we present a hybrid quantum-classical algorithm, called variational fast forwarding (VFF), for decreasing the quantum circuit depth of QSs. VFF seeks an approximate diagonalization of a short-time simulation to enable longer-time simulations using a constant number of gates. Our error analysis provides two results: (1) the simulation error of VFF scales at worst linearly in the fast-forwarded simulation time, and (2) our cost function’s operational meaning as an upper bound on average-case simulation error provides a natural termination condition for VFF. We implement VFF for the Hubbard, Ising, and Heisenberg models on a simulator. In addition, we implement VFF on Rigetti’s QC to demonstrate simulation beyond the coherence time. Finally, we show how to estimate energy eigenvalues using VFF.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

OpenUniverse2024: a shared, simulated view of the sky for the next generation of cosmological surveys

The OpenUniverse2024 simulation suite is a cross-collaboration effort to produce matched simulated imaging for multiple surveys as they would observe a common simulated sky. Both the simulated data and associated tools used to produce it are intended to uniquely enable a wide range of studies to maximize the science potential of the next generation of cosmological surveys. We have produced simulated imaging for approximately 70 deg 2 of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Wide-Fast-Deep survey and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope High-Latitude Wide-Area Survey, as well as overlapping versions of the ELAIS-S1 Deep-Drilling Field for LSST and the High-Latitude Time-Domain Survey for Roman. OpenUniverse2024 includes (i) an early version of the updated extragalactic model called Diffsky, which substantially improves the realism of optical and infrared photometry of objects, compared to previous versions of these models; (ii) updated transient models that extend through the wavelength range probed by Roman and Rubin; and (iii) improved survey, telescope, and instrument realism based on up-to-date survey plans and known properties of the instruments. It is built on a new and updated suite of simulation tools that improves the ease of consistently simulating multiple observatories viewing the same sky. The approximately 400 TB of synthetic survey imaging and simulated universe catalogs are publicly available, and we preview some scientific uses of the simulations.

large-scale structure of Universe↗

DOE OSTI2021

Toward simulating quantum field theories with controlled phonon-ion dynamics: A hybrid analog-digital approach

Quantum field theories are the cornerstones of modern physics, providing relativistic and quantum mechanical descriptions of physical systems at the most fundamental level. Simulating real-time dynamics within these theories remains elusive in classical computing. This provides a unique opportunity for quantum simulators, which hold the promise of revolutionizing our simulation capabilities. Trapped-ion systems are successful quantum-simulator platforms for quantum many-body physics and can operate in digital, or gate-based, and analog modes. Inspired by the progress in proposing and realizing quantum simulations of a number of relativistic quantum field theories using trapped-ion systems, and by the hybrid analog-digital proposals for simulating interacting boson-fermion models, we propose hybrid analog-digital quantum simulations of selected quantum field theories, taking recent developments to the next level. On one hand, the semi-digital nature of this proposal offers more flexibility in engineering generic model interactions compared with a fully-analog approach. On the other hand, encoding the bosonic fields onto the phonon degrees of freedom of the trapped-ion system allows a more efficient usage of simulator resources, and a more natural implementation of intrinsic quantum operations in such platforms. This opens up new ways for simulating complex dynamics of e.g., Abelian and non-Abelian gauge theories, by combining the benefits of digital and analog schemes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Comparison of Lagrangian Superdroplet and Eulerian Double-Moment Spectral Microphysics Schemes in Large-Eddy Simulations of an Isolated Cumulus Congestus Cloud

Abstract Advanced microphysics schemes (such as Eulerian bin and Lagrangian superdroplet) are becoming standard tools for cloud physics research and parameterization development. This study compares a double-moment bin scheme and a Lagrangian superdroplet scheme via large-eddy simulations of nonprecipitating and precipitating cumulus congestus clouds. Cloud water mixing ratio in the bin simulations is reduced compared to the Lagrangian simulations in the upper part of the cloud, likely from numerical diffusion, which is absent in the Lagrangian approach. Greater diffusion in the bin simulations is compensated by more secondary droplet activation (activation above cloud base), leading to similar or somewhat higher droplet number concentrations and smaller mean droplet radius than the Lagrangian simulations for the nonprecipitating case. The bin scheme also produces a significantly larger standard deviation of droplet radius than the superdroplet method, likely due to diffusion associated with the vertical advection of bin variables. However, the spectral width in the bin simulations is insensitive to the grid spacing between 50 and 100 m, suggesting other mechanisms may be compensating for diffusion as the grid spacing is modified. For the precipitating case, larger spectral width in the bin simulations initiates rain earlier and enhances rain development in a positive feedback loop. However, with time, rain formation in the superdroplet simulations catches up to the bin simulations. Offline calculations using the same drop size distributions in both schemes show that the different numerical methods for treating collision–coalescence also contribute to differences in rain formation. The stochastic collision–coalescence in the superdroplet method introduces more variability in drop growth for a given rain mixing ratio.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

ATS (Advanced Terrestrial Simulator) integrated hydrology and reactive transport model output in Copper Creek, Colorado

This dataset is generated using the ATS (Advanced Terrestrial Simulator) model at Copper Creek, Colorado, the largest catchment in the East River watershed. ATS is an integrated hydrology and reactive transport model to simulate the Concentration-Discharge (C-Q) relationship, and is used to quantify the geochemical export and understand how watersheds respond to climate disturbances. Key hydrogeochemical variables, including discharge, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and geochemical concentrations, were simulated and output at a daily frequency at the Copper Creek outlet. A group of hydrology and geochemical model variables over the spatial domain are output at a bi-monthly frequency. The model used 1-km resolution daily frequency Daymet meteorological forcing, and mineral composition from previous studies. The simulations are performed on NERSC. The datasets include the input files for running the ATS (Advanced Terrestrial Simulator) simulation, including the mesh file, input script and geochemical model files. The output files from the ATS (Advanced Terrestrial Simulator) are the daily time-series discharge and geochemical concentration simulated at the outlet of Copper Creek, and the bi-monthly spatial output over the simulation domain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Path Integral Monte Carlo Simulations of Iron Plasmas (Final Technical Report)

This documents is the final technical report for our grant entitled "Path Integral Monte Carlo Simulations of Iron Plasmas" that focused on developing path integral Monte Carlo (PIMC) computer simulations. This techniques will be developed to study plasmas composed of heavier elements including iron and other third row elements. Equations of state (EOS) and transport properties will be derived in the regime of warm dense matter (WDM) and dense plasmas where existing first-principles methods cannot be applied. While standard density functional theory (DFT) has been used to accurately predict the structure of many solids and liquids up to temperatures on the order of 100,000 K, this method is not applicable at much higher temperature because the number of partially occupied electronic orbitals reaches intractably large numbers or the use of finite-temperature free energy functionals in orbital-free DFT introduces an uncontrolled approximation. Here we focus on PIMC methods that become more and more efficient with increasing temperatures and still include all electronic correlation effects. In this approach, electronic excitations increase the efficiency rather than reduce it. While it had commonly been assumed this method could only be applied to elements without core electrons, we showed that PIMC with free-particle nodes works well for first-row elements (PRL 108 (2012) 115502). Most recently, we extended the applicability range of all-electron PIMC to second-row elements by adopting localized nodal surfaces (PRL 115 (2015) 176403). To simulate third-row elements efficiently under WDM conditions, we propose a new method to remove core electrons by introducing pseudo-nodes. We explain our approach step by step and present preliminary results. We focus our method development on getting PIMC simulations of iron to work because of its fundamental importance for WDM and astrophysics. Then we move on to krypton and copper-doped beryllium, a ICF ablator material. We plan to continue working on key second-row material such as Na, Mg, MgO, Al, silica, and silicon-doped plastic ablators. Our collaborators at LLNL, will use our PIMC EOS data both as comparisons to existing semi-empirical, EOS-generating schemes, and as input for continuum radiation hydrodynamics simulations. We will establish an efficient pipeline from PIMC to macroscopic continuum studies of materials response. An emphasis will be placed on benchmarking such methods for plasmas of heavy elements at the very high temperatures (~100 eV) and low densities that are generated when Hohlraum radiation heats the ablator material in indirect drive laser experiments. Results from changes to the EOS will be of immeasurable importance to the designers at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) and at other facilities. Starting with our EOS of Cu-doped Be, our second collaborator at LLE, will perform real-time simulations of laser fusion experiments at the Omega laser and at the NIF to determine how sensitive the compression path depends on the ablator EOS. Since our collaborator also has experience in performing orbital-free DFT calculations, we propose to compare predictions from this method with PIMC results. In joint publications, we plan to analyze the accuracy of different free-energy functionals in order to understand why existing orbital-free DFT calculations do not predict compression peaks along the shock Hugoniot curve that we see with PIMC. The peaks are caused by the ionization of various electron shells. Their accurate characterization is important to compare with experimental results. We will break new ground by developing PIMC techniques that can simulate iron and all other third row elements in the plasma and WDM regimes. We introduce the concept of pseudo-nodes for the efficient treatment of the core-electrons. The EOS and transport properties will be derived and published online in the form of a new WDM database. Our PIMC EOS calculations will benchmark and possibly replace semi-analytical EOS tables like QEOS or SESAME, which will impact the hydrocode simulation community and will affect the design of NIF targets. Our PIMC results will help to improve the accuracy of orbital-free DFT simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Vehicle Powertrain Simulation Accuracy for Various Drive Cycle Frequencies and Upsampling Techniques

As connected and automated vehicle technologies emerge and proliferate, lower frequency vehicle trajectory data is becoming more widely available. In some cases, entire fleets are streaming position, speed, and telemetry at sample rates of less than 10 seconds. This presents opportunities to apply powertrain simulators such as the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator to model how advanced powertrain technologies would perform in the real world. However, connected vehicle data tends to be available at lower temporal frequencies than the 1-10 Hz trajectories that have typically been used for powertrain simulation. Higher frequency data, typically used for simulation, is costly to collect and store and therefore is often limited in density and geography. This paper explores the suitability of lower frequency, high availability, connected vehicle data for detailed powertrain simulation. A large data set of 1 Hz trajectories is used to quantify the accuracy loss when simulating energy consumption for conventional, hybrid, and battery electric powertrains using less than 1 Hz data. Techniques to upsample lower frequency drive cycle data in order to increase accuracy are also explored. Median energy consumption errors when simulating energy consumption for a 1/10 Hz trajectory are found to be 3-6% when compared to 1 Hz trajectories. Applying upsampling and interpolation techniques are shown to reduce the simulation errors by roughly 50%. The findings in this work can guide connected vehicle data collection specifications and processing techniques applied when using collected data for powertrain simulation.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NASA NTRS2014

Kinematic Evolution of Simulated Star-Forming Galaxies

Recent observations have shown that star-forming galaxies like our own Milky Way evolve kinematically into ordered thin disks over the last approximately 8 billion years since z = 1.2, undergoing a process of "disk settling." For the first time, we study the kinematic evolution of a suite of four state of the art "zoom in" hydrodynamic simulations of galaxy formation and evolution in a fully cosmological context and compare with these observations. Until now, robust measurements of the internal kinematics of simulated galaxies were lacking as the simulations suffered from low resolution, overproduction of stars, and overly massive bulges. The current generation of simulations has made great progress in overcoming these difficulties and is ready for a kinematic analysis. We show that simulated galaxies follow the same kinematic trends as real galaxies: they progressively decrease in disordered motions (sigma(sub g)) and increase in ordered rotation (V(sub rot)) with time. The slopes of the relations between both sigma(sub g) and V(sub rot) with redshift are consistent between the simulations and the observations. In addition, the morphologies of the simulated galaxies become less disturbed with time, also consistent with observations. This match between the simulated and observed trends is a significant success for the current generation of simulations, and a first step in determining the physical processes behind disk settling.

Evolution↗

NASA NTRS2016

Spatial Sampling of Weather Data for Regional Crop Yield Simulations

Field-scale crop models are increasingly applied at spatio-temporal scales that range from regions to the globe and from decades up to 100 years. Sufficiently detailed data to capture the prevailing spatio-temporal heterogeneity in weather, soil, and management conditions as needed by crop models are rarely available. Effective sampling may overcome the problem of missing data but has rarely been investigated. In this study the effect of sampling weather data has been evaluated for simulating yields of winter wheat in a region in Germany over a 30-year period (1982-2011) using 12 process-based crop models. A stratified sampling was applied to compare the effect of different sizes of spatially sampled weather data (10, 30, 50, 100, 500, 1000 and full coverage of 34,078 sampling points) on simulated wheat yields. Stratified sampling was further compared with random sampling. Possible interactions between sample size and crop model were evaluated. The results showed differences in simulated yields among crop models but all models reproduced well the pattern of the stratification. Importantly, the regional mean of simulated yields based on full coverage could already be reproduced by a small sample of 10 points. This was also true for reproducing the temporal variability in simulated yields but more sampling points (about 100) were required to accurately reproduce spatial yield variability. The number of sampling points can be smaller when a stratified sampling is applied as compared to a random sampling. However, differences between crop models were observed including some interaction between the effect of sampling on simulated yields and the model used. We concluded that stratified sampling can considerably reduce the number of required simulations. But, differences between crop models must be considered as the choice for a specific model can have larger effects on simulated yields than the sampling strategy. Assessing the impact of sampling soil and crop management data for regional simulations of crop yields is still needed.

upscaling↗

NASA NTRS2024

Measurements of Silicosis Factors in Lunar and Martian Simulants

Simulants are geologically complex materials that are developed to represent the physical and/or compositional characteristics of a planetary surface (e.g., a naturally occurring soil or regolith). There are dozens of commercially available simulants that have been developed over the years; each simulant exhibits unique physical, chemical, and mineralogical characteristics. Simulants are derived from either natural or synthetic sources (i.e., “feedstocks”) of glass, minerals, and rocks. These feedstock components are processed by crushing, pulverizing, melting, etc., and then combined in the appropriate proportions to represent a particular site, surface, or region (e.g., Lunar Highlands Regolith). The process of creating simulants therefore requires the mechanical breakdown and reincorporation of feedstock components which may contain crystalline silica minerals such as quartz, cristobalite, and tridymite. Certain crystalline silica particles of the respirable fraction (<10 μm in diameter) are of great concern; chronic and acute exposure to these respirable crystalline silica (RCS) can lead to permanent damage and scarring of lung tissue, incurable lung diseases (i.e., silicosis), lung cancer, COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), and kidney disease. Planetary simulants are used extensively as test materials in the in scientific and engineering communities (e.g., testing of dust mitigation technologies, in-situ resource utilization, rover mobility, hardware, soft goods etc.). As such, this assessment was developed to serve as a guide for simulant users, local Safety and Occupational Health professionals, and Industrial Hygienists to evaluate the risk of silicosis across a wide variety of Lunar and Martian simulants. The goal of these works is to ensure that those working with simulant can do so safely and with an informed understanding of potential health risks.

Lunar↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Measurements of Silicosis Factors in Lunar and Martian Simulants

Lunar↗

NASA NTRS2024

Expansion of Check-Cases for 6DOF Simulation: Appendix A

This is the Appendix containing figures of simulation output data plots for comparison from the assessment, “Expansion of Check-Cases for 6DOF Simulation”. This effort expands upon a previous NASA activity that developed flight simulation benchmark check-cases to include new check-cases for the Cislunar domain, comparing multiple NASA simulation tools. The results of this effort describe the benefits of standardizing inputs, simulation comparisons and describe an interactive website that enables comparison of externally provided simulation data. Participating simulations improved their software and identified implementation errors. This activity elevated simulation credibility and provided a measure of validation for the simulations actively in use for NASA’s Human Landing Systems (HLS).

Modeling↗

DOE OSTI2019

The Necessity for Iteration in the Application of Numerical Simulation to EGS: Examples from the EGS Collab Test Bed 1

The United States Department of Energy, Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) is funding a collaborative investigation of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) processes at the meso-scale. This study, referred to as the EGS Collab project, is a unique opportunity for scientists and engineers to investigate the creation of fracture networks and circulation of fluids across those networks under in-situ stress conditions. The EGS Collab project is envisioned to comprise three experiments and the site for the first experiment is on the 4850 Level in phyllite of the Precambrian Poorman formation, at the Sanford Underground Research Facility, located at the former Homestake Gold Mine, in Lead, South Dakota. Principal objectives of the project are to develop a number of intermediate-scale field sites and to conduct well-controlled in situ experiments focused on rock fracture behavior and permeability enhancement. Data generated during these experiments will be compared against predictions of a suite of computer codes specifically designed to solve problems involving coupled thermal, hydrological, geomechanical, and geochemical processes. Comparisons between experimental and numerical simulation results will provide code developers with direction for improvements and verification of process models, build confidence in the suite of available numerical tools, and ultimately identify critical future development needs for the geothermal modeling community. Moreover, conducting thorough comparisons of models, modelling approaches, measurement approaches and measured data, via the EGS Collab project, will serve to identify techniques that are most likely to succeed at the Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE), the GTO's flagship EGS research effort. As noted, outcomes from the EGS Collab project experiments will serve as benchmarks for computer code verification, but numerical simulation additionally plays an essential role in designing these meso-scale experiments. This paper reviews specific numerical simulations supporting the design of experiments within Test Bed 1, a volume of phyllite rock under in-situ stress conditions off the western side of the West Access Drift on the 4850 Level, near Governor's Corner. Numerical simulations were executed prior to the start of hydraulic stimulation activities within Test Bed 1 following standard practices, using best estimates of principal stress conditions, thermal conditions, and the rock petrophysical properties, including geomechanical properties. These simulations indicated notching of the borehole would promote the initiation of transverse fractures, seismic magnitudes during the hydraulic stimulation would be below 0.1 magnitude on the Richter scale, a rock thermal conductivity of 5.0 W/m K yielded agreement with kISMET borehole temperature logs, back pressure on the production borehole would increase circulation across the test bed, and the production borehole would serve to halt propagation of the hydraulic fracture to the drift. Pre-existing natural fractures, heterogeneities in the rock properties, monitoring boreholes, and overlooked mine elements have prompted a second look at numerically modeling stimulation, fluid circulation, tracer migration, and thermal breakthrough. Numerical simulation is an invaluable tool for providing insight and understanding to complex physical processes. The success of simulations, however, often depends on including all of the salient features of the system in the founding conceptual model. This paper takes a retrospective look at examples where the conceptual model and simulation was sufficient to provide accurate forecasts and those where elements were missing, necessitating rethinking of the simulation.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

The Necessity for Iteration in the Application of Numerical Simulation to EGS: Examples from the EGS Collab Test Bed 1

The United States Department of Energy, Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) is funding a collaborative investigation of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) processes at the meso-scale. This study, referred to as the EGS Collab project, is a unique opportunity for scientists and engineers to investigate the creation of fracture networks and circulation of fluids across those networks under in-situ stress conditions. The EGS Collab project is envisioned to comprise three experiments and the site for the first experiment is on the 4850 Level in phyllite of the Precambrian Poorman formation, at the Sanford Underground Research Facility, located at the former Homestake Gold Mine, in Lead, South Dakota. Principal objectives of the project are to develop a number of intermediate-scale field sites and to conduct well-controlled in situ experiments focused on rock fracture behavior and permeability enhancement. Data generated during these experiments will be compared against predictions of a suite of computer codes specifically designed to solve problems involving coupled thermal, hydrological, geomechanical, and geochemical processes. Comparisons between experimental and numerical simulation results will provide code developers with direction for improvements and verification of process models, build confidence in the suite of available numerical tools, and ultimately identify critical future development needs for the geothermal modeling community. Moreover, conducting thorough comparisons of models, modelling approaches, measurement approaches and measured data, via the EGS Collab project, will serve to identify techniques that are most likely to succeed at the Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE), the GTO’s flagship EGS research effort. As noted, outcomes from the EGS Collab project experiments will serve as benchmarks for computer code verification, but numerical simulation additionally plays an essential role in designing these meso-scale experiments. This paper reviews specific numerical simulations supporting the design of experiments within Test Bed 1, a volume of phyllite rock under in-situ stress conditions off the western side of the West Access Drift on the 4850 Level, near Governor’s Corner. Numerical simulations were executed prior to the start of hydraulic stimulation activities within Test Bed 1 following standard practices, using best estimates of principal stress conditions, thermal conditions, and the rock petrophysical properties, including geomechanical properties. These simulations indicated notching of the borehole would promote the initiation of transverse fractures, seismic magnitudes during the hydraulic stimulation would be below 0.1 magnitude on the Richter scale, a rock thermal conductivity of 5.0 W/m K yielded agreement with kISMET borehole temperature logs, back pressure on the production borehole would increase circulation across the test bed, and the production borehole would serve to halt propagation of the hydraulic fracture to the drift. Pre-existing natural fractures, heterogeneities in the rock properties, monitoring boreholes, and overlooked mine elements have prompted a second look at numerically modeling stimulation, fluid circulation, tracer migration, and thermal breakthrough. Numerical simulation is an invaluable tool for providing insight and understanding to complex physical processes. The success of simulations, however, often depends on including all of the salient features of the system in the founding conceptual model. This paper takes a retrospective look at examples where the conceptual model and simulation was sufficient to provide accurate forecasts and those where elements were missing, necessitating rethinking of the simulation.

numerical simulation, EGS Collab, enhanced geother↗