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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamically downscaled seasonal heat wave projections in the CONUS

Heat waves are a well-documented hazard that are projected to increase in intensity, duration, and frequency with climate change. Regions of the US experience widely varying temperatures; for example, 35 °C is extremely hot for spring in the Northeast but not for summer in the Southeast. It is important to evaluate projections within a regional context and at a high enough resolution to understand the risks to populations. We identify heat waves across the Conterminous US (CONUS) under SSP5–8.5 from 2020 to 2059 with an ensemble of dynamically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model outputs. We demonstrate that there are regional differences caused by seasonal and local drivers of persistent hot temperatures. Summer heat waves are increasing in intensity and duration faster than winter heat waves because of the atmospheric conditions that promote these events. Our analysis emphasizes the value of fine-resolution modeling for projecting future climate risks.

Rubin, Hannah [University of Tennessee, Knoxville ↗
NASA NTRS2012

Orbital Debris Modeling

Presentation outlne: (1) The NASA Orbital Debris (OD) Engineering Model -- A mathematical model capable of predicting OD impact risks for the ISS and other critical space assets (2) The NASA OD Evolutionary Model -- A physical model capable of predicting future debris environment based on user-specified scenarios (3) The NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model -- A model describing the outcome of a satellite breakup (explosion or collision)

Liou, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Overview of EVA PRA for TPS Repair for Hubble Space Telescope Servicing Mission

Following the Columbia accident in 2003, NASA developed techniques to repair the Thermal Protection System (TPS) in the event of damage to the TPS as one of several actions to reduce the risk to future flights from ascent debris, micro-meteoroid and/or orbital debris (MMOD). Other actions to help reduce the risk include improved inspection techniques, reduced shedding of debris from the External Tank and ability to rescue the crew with a launch on need vehicle. For the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Servicing Mission the crew rescue capability was limited by the inability to safe haven on the International Space Station (ISS), resulting in a greater reliance on the repair capability. Therefore it was desirable to have an idea of the risk associated with conducting a repair, where the repair would have to be conducted using an Extra-Vehicular Activity (EVA). Previously, focused analyses had been conducted to quantify the risk associated with certain aspects of an EVA, for example the EVA Mobility Unit (EMU) or Space Suit; however, the analyses were somewhat limited in scope. A complete integrated model of an EVA which could quantify the risk associated with all of the major components of an EVA had never been done before. It was desired to have a complete integrated model to be able to assess the risks associated with an EVA to support the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) in making risk informed decisions. In the case of the HST Servicing Mission, this model was developed to assess specifically the risks associated with performing a TPS repair EVA. This paper provides an overview of the model that was developed to support the HST mission in the event of TPS damage. The HST Servicing Mission was successfully completed on May 24th 2009 with no critical TPS damage; therefore the model was not required for real-time mission support. However, it laid the foundation upon which future EVA quantitative risk assessments could be based.

Bigler, Mark↗
DOE OSTI2019

Inventory Data Package for the Hanford Site Composite Analysis

The disposed inventory estimate is perhaps the most important component of the composite analysis (CA), as it directly affects the future radiological impacts following site closure. The goal is to estimate radionuclide inventory from site inception to closure. Because of the inclusive nature of a CA, all relevant contaminants are identified and initially considered. Then, subsets of contaminants appropriate for quantitative analysis are selected. Reducing the number of radionuclides for inclusion in the quantitative analysis helps focus budget and resources on simulating only those radionuclides that are likely to contribute to the total dose to the receptor above a threshold value. Inventory is reported within the geographical boundary of the Hanford Site 200 Areas and includes contributing sources on the Central Plateau. The inventory covers the radiological inventories of historical discharges and residuals that have the potential to release after closure. The reported inventory is focused on the source terms needed for transport modeling and the evaluation of risk associated with the ground water pathway. Risk from the air pathway was considered. Inventories of sites with approved performance assessments (PAs) will be integrated using their release curves directly with vadose zone transport modeling.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hanford Waste Treatment Plant LAB Facility Stack Effluent Monitoring: Sampling Probe Location Qualification Evaluation

The WTP LAB stack monitor locations were qualified using scale model stacks to mitigate the risk of identifying that sampling locations do not meet the qualification criteria on the full-scale stack. As required by the ANSI/HPS N13.1-1999 standard, the scale model and its sampling location were geometrically similar to the actual stack and the Reynolds numbers for both the actual and model stacks were >10,000. An additional criterion is that the DV of the full-scale stack must be between 1/6 DV and 6 DV of the scale model stack tests. Verification tests of the LAB stacks were performed at normal operating conditions. The maximum 6 DV value from the scale model testing determines the maximum conditions for which the full-scale stack may be operated and remain in compliance with the stack verification criterion. The remaining criteria for the stack verification to be considered valid involve the flow angle and velocity uniformity results. First, the flow angle at the full-scale stack must be = 20°. Second, the velocity uniformity at the full-scale stack must be = 20% COV. Finally, the velocity uniformity results for the actual and scale model stacks must agree within 5% COV. In general, these criteria were met through the full-scale stack tests at the LAB facility. Some specific items for each scale model and full-scale stack comparison should be noted in assessing the validity of the verification tests. The LB-C2 scale model stacks were performed with single fan operations at then-minimum flow conditions. These conditions resulted in DV values that were too low to meet the DV range criterion, and therefore are unable to be used in qualifying single fan operations on the full-scale stack. However, the single fan operations demonstrated COV values for velocity uniformity as well as flow angles that were comparable to the dual-fan operations at high flows. Overall, the test conditions and test results were within the range of acceptable values based on current design flow rates. Single fan operations are expected to only occur infrequently for maintenance needs and is therefore not a planned operating condition at this time. The LB-S1 scale model stacks were performed at three fan combinations, and in each combination, at least one test was performed at the then-minimum flow conditions as well as at then-maximum flow conditions. While the then-minimum flow conditions result in a DV range that is lower than the verification test DV value, and therefore does not meet the criterion, these tests are un-necessary for the verification test acceptance. The normal and maximum flow conditions from the scale model stack tests meet the DV range criterion, and the velocity uniformity test results compare favorably with the full-scale stack results. The LB-S2 scale model stacks were performed at nominally the same maximum flow condition; however, the 6 DV value for Fan A operation was slightly lower than the full-scale stack test DV. The COV values from the scale model stacks were comparable between the Fan A and Fan B results, and the overall test conditions are within the range of acceptable values. The stack verification is therefore considered acceptable for both Fan A and Fan B operations. The verification tests were performed at flows that were appreciably higher than the design conditions, and further elevated flow rates would be beyond the range of acceptable DV. Based on these stack verification test results, the three LAB filtered exhaust stacks meet the qualification criteria provided in the ANSI/HPS N13.1-1999 standard. Further changes to the system configuration or operating conditions that are outside the bounds described in this and the scale model test reports (Glissmeyer, Flaherty, and Piepel (2001), Glissmeyer and Geeting (2013)) may require additional tests and additional analyses to determine compliance with the standard.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

NRAP-Open-IAM: FutureGen2 Component Models

This report describes the development and testing of three component models for NRAP-Open-IAM, the National Risk Assessment Partnership’s open-source integrated assessment model. The FutureGen2 Lookup Table Reservoir component model is based on interpolation of data from a set of lookup tables. The lookup tables contain pressures and saturations predicted by multiphase flow simulations performed with a reservoir simulator. The FutureGen2 Above Zone Monitoring Interval (AZMI) component is a surrogate model that can be used to estimate the impact that carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and brine leaks from the CO 2 storage reservoir at the FutureGen 2.0 site might have had on overlying aquifers or monitoring units were a leak to occur. The model estimates the size of “impact plumes” according to five metrics: pH, Total Dissolved Solids (TDS), pressure, dissolved CO 2 and temperature. The FutureGen2 Aquifer component is similar, but is limited to four metrics: pH, Total Dissolved Solids (TDS), pressure, and dissolved CO 2 . The input parameters for each model are the same, but the Aquifer component is applicable to depths between 100 m and 700 m and the AZMI component is applicable from depths between 700 m and 1050 m.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1977

Millimeter wave satellite concepts, volume 1

The identification of technologies necessary for development of millimeter spectrum communication satellites was examined from a system point of view. Development of methodology based on the technical requirements of potential services that might be assigned to millimeter wave bands for identifying the viable and appropriate technologies for future NASA millimeter research and development programs, and testing of this methodology with selected user applications and services were the goals of the program. The entire communications network, both ground and space subsystems was studied. Cost, weight, and performance models for the subsystems, conceptual design for point-to-point and broadcast communications satellites, and analytic relationships between subsystem parameters and an overall link performance are discussed along with baseline conceptual systems, sensitivity studies, model adjustment analyses, identification of critical technologies and their risks, and brief research and development program scenarios for the technologies judged to be moderate or extensive risks. Identification of technologies for millimeter satellite communication systems, and assessment of the relative risks of these technologies, was accomplished through subsystem modeling and link optimization for both point-to-point and broadcast applications.

Hilsen, N. B.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Decision Support Tool for Solar Energy Cybersecurity Policy and Regulation

The Decision Support Tool helps users address four discrete challenges: (1) complex requirements of relevant codes and standards, (2) technical complexity of solar assets, (3) undefined cyber risk severity, and (4) unclear roles and responsibilities. Content includes an analysis of cyber vulnerability risks, a decision support resource for policymakers to mitigate cyber risks to solar photovoltaic systems, and background resources for informing policy development. A key component of this tool is the Probable Risk Assessment (PRA), based on established, formal variables, models, and consequences, which helps users understand the determined risk and assigned ownership of the physical components. It helps states draw logical lines between vulnerabilities and mitigative solutions, of which some have been further detailed as Cybersecurity Advisory Team for State Solar (CATSS) tools.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Wildfire Risk Support via Satellite-Derived Vegetation Health and Land Surface Model Soil Moisture

Land Surface Model (LSM) and evaporative demand products provide advanced lead time to wildfire conditions that complement traditional fire indices and represent short-term changes that add context to overall, long-term drought conditions. Established fire indices typically use weather indicators (i.e., precipitation, temperature) and estimated dead fuel moisture to indirectly obtain land surface and sub-surface characterization. The convergence of LSM shallow and deep-layer soil moisture output and satellite-derived vegetation health combine to provide a tool for stakeholders to examine trends in the state of land surface conditions that can help assess wildfire threat. Satellite remote sensing data can constrain near-real time vegetation characteristics within the LSM and/or provide a derived stress index in order to help characterize the wildfire risk. In addition, a percentile product of soil moisture is derived from a comparison of current LSM conditions to the historical record of the LSM in order to put the current conditions in perspective relative to the season and geographic region. The 2015 season as well as the 2018 Camp Fire Complex in California were examined in terms of the changes in LSM soil moisture and vegetation states. Satellite vegetation health consistently showed decreases a month prior to wildfire initiation. Additionally, maximum changes in total column soil moisture corresponded with the greatest concentration of fire locations. While soil moisture deficits occurred in the shallow layers across northern California in 2018, significant deficits at all sub-surface levels were seen ahead of the Camp Fire event. This presentation will demonstrate the complementary value of LSM output and satellite measured vegetation health to diagnose short-term deficits in sub-surface soil moisture and the rapid decline in vegetation health which precedes large wildfire events.

Wildfire↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Taxonomy-Based Approach to Shed Light on the Babel of Mathematical Models for Rice Simulation

For most biophysical domains, differences in model structures are seldom quantified. Here, we used a taxonomy-based approach to characterise thirteen rice models. Classification keys and binary attributes for each key were identified, and models were categorised into five clusters using a binary similarity measure and the unweighted pair-group method with arithmetic mean. Principal component analysis was performed on model outputs at four sites. Results indicated that (i) differences in structure often resulted in similar predictions and (ii) similar structures can lead to large differences in model outputs. User subjectivity during calibration may have hidden expected relationships between model structure and behaviour. This explanation, if confirmed, highlights the need for shared protocols to reduce the degrees of freedom during calibration, and to limit, in turn, the risk that user subjectivity influences model performance.

model parameterisation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Markov Process to Evaluate the Value Proposition of a Risk-Informed Predictive Maintenance Strategy

To achieve high-capacity factors, the nuclear fleet has relied on labor-intensive and time-consuming operation and preventive maintenance programs for plant systems. Manually performed inspection, calibration, testing, and maintenance of plant assets at periodic frequencies, along with time-based replacement of assets irrespective of condition, have resulted in a costly, labor-centric business model. Fortunately, there are technologies that can eliminate unnecessary preventive maintenance activities by deploying risk-informed predictive maintenance, enabling the transition to a technology-centric business model. The technology-centric business model will enable plants to optimize and automate maintenance activities, leading to cost reductions since labor is a rising cost and technology is a declining cost. The implementation of scalable technologies and methodologies across plant systems and across the nuclear fleet is critical for successful deployment of a risk-informed predictive maintenance strategy at commercial nuclear power plants. The work presented in the report is being developed as part of a collaborative research effort between Idaho National Laboratory and Public Service Enterprise Group Nuclear, LLC. This report describes the technical basis using the Markov Process to evaluate the value proposition for the risk-informed predictive maintenance strategy for the circulating water system. The plant process data from the Salem nuclear plant’s circulating water system is utilized to develop a Markov chain risk models and formulation to estimate the loss and gain in revenue based on plant availability. The outcomes presented in this report provides the technical basis for extensive quantitative evaluation of a scalable risk-informed predictive maintenance strategy as part of future research.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Challenges in the detection of gases in exoplanet atmospheres

Claims of detections of gases in exoplanet atmospheres often rely on comparisons between models including and excluding specific chemical species. However, the space of molecular combinations available for model construction is vast and highly degenerate. Only a limited subset of these combinations is typically explored for any given detection. As a result, apparent detections of trace gases risk being artefacts of incomplete modelling rather than robust identification of atmospheric constituents, especially in the low-signal-to-noise regime. Here, using the sub-Neptune K2-18 b as a case study, we show that recent biosignature claims vanish when the model space is expanded, with numerous alternatives providing equally good or better fits. We demonstrate that the significance of a claimed detection relies on the choice of models being compared, and that model preference does not in itself imply the presence of a specific gas. In conclusion, we recommend treating model comparisons instead as relative adequacy tests, which should be supported by theoretical predictions and complementary metrics of statistical significance to attribute a signal to a particular gas.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗
NASA NTRS2002

Tracking Avian Reservoirs of Arboviruses using Remote Sensing and Radiotelemetry

Encephalitis is caused by a virus that is transmitted by mosquitoes between mammalian hosts. The virus is closely related to the West Nile virus (WNV), which started in New York in 1999, and has since spread to 25 states. Like encephalitis, WNV is vectored by mosquitoes, and the primary hosts are birds; humans are accidental, or'dead-end' hosts. Very little is understood about the behavior of these bird populations, and how they intersect - both in time and in space - with mosquito populations. Exploring these relationships is the first step in developing models for encephalitis and WNV transmission risk. This project combines remotely sensed data with radiotelemetry to create a spatiotemporal map of encephalitis viral activity in bird and mosquito populations in the Sacramento Valley of California. Specifically, remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) technologies were used to characterize habitats utilized by both avian viral reservoirs and the mosquitoes that vector encephalitis. Radiotelemetry and serosurveys (blood) were then used to spatially and temporally track the patterns of infection. The project uses Landsat ETM+ multitemporal satellite data to characterize habitats utilized by both birds and the mosquito vectors. Mist nets were used to sample members of individual flocks of blackbirds and cowbirds over a period of several months; these birds were then bled to assess their viral status, banded, and fitted with transmitters. Radiotelemetry was used to spatially and temporally track the distribution of banded birds and their associated flocks. The movement of these indicator flocks were compared with the location of remotely sensed (adult and larval) mosquito habitats to determine the intersection of bird's and vectors; this is key in understanding where and when transmission occurs from bird to bird, as well as from bird to mammal, via mosquito. The relationships found during the project are being used to generate a model of encephalitis transmission risk in California.

Beck, L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fusing time-varying mosquito data and continuous mosquito population dynamics models

Climate change is arguably one of the most pressing issues affecting the world today and requires the fusion of disparate data streams to accurately model its impacts. Mosquito populations respond to temperature and precipitation in a nonlinear way, making predicting climate impacts on mosquito-borne diseases an ongoing challenge. Data-driven approaches for accurately modeling mosquito populations are needed for predicting mosquito-borne disease risk under climate change scenarios. Many current models for disease transmission are continuous and autonomous, while mosquito data is discrete and varies both within and between seasons. This study uses an optimization framework to fit a non-autonomous logistic model with periodic net growth rate and carrying capacity parameters for 15 years of daily mosquito time-series data from the Greater Toronto Area of Canada. The resulting parameters accurately capture the inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability of mosquito populations within a single geographic region, and a variance-based sensitivity analysis highlights the influence each parameter has on the peak magnitude and timing of the mosquito season. This method can easily extend to other geographic regions and be integrated into a larger disease transmission model. This method addresses the ongoing challenges of data and model fusion by serving as a link between discrete time-series data and continuous differential equations for mosquito-borne epidemiology models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Watershed response of the Feather River Basin, California, United States of America to future climate changes

Increasing mean annual temperatures under climate change are expected to reduce seasonal snowpack, increase evapotranspiration (ET), and alter summer baseflow in headwater watersheds worldwide. Strong regional variability in hydrologic responses highlights the need for catchment-scale, physically based models to assess future flood risk and water availability. This study examines climate-driven changes in the hydrologic response of the Upper Feather River watershed in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, California. Four priority climate models and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are used to evaluate future hydrologic responses of the watershed. Hydrologic processes are simulated using an objectively calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus model for a historical baseline (1986–2005) and a future period 2070–2099), driven by observed and projected precipitation and temperature. Results indicate a declining contribution of snowfall to annual precipitation, with peak snowfall and water yield shifting 1–3 months earlier. Long-term annual maximum flows are projected to increase considerably, whereas low-flow responses are mixed, with both increases and decreases projected by the end of the century. These findings highlight the need for adaptive watershed management to enhance flood protection, water storage, and drought resilience. Future water resource planning should also account for one-to-three-month shifts in peak water yield and surface runoff due to changes in snowmelt timing and a lower snowfall-to-rainfall ratio under climate change. The modeling framework and insights are transferable to other snow-dominated headwater watersheds experiencing climate-driven change.

Tigabu, T [UC Davis]↗