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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Novel Approach to Simulating Diagnostic Capabilities in Medical Resource Risk Assessment

Diagnostics represent a key subset of medical resources considered for helping mitigate and control spaceflight medical risk. Historically, when modeling the medical risk domain for spaceflight, diagnostic resources have been handled like any other medical resource used for treatment. That is to say, the resource being unavailable will result in the related condition having suboptimal treatment outcomes. However in the real world, should a diagnostic resource be unavailable, a more analogous effect would be that the condition might be misdiagnosed, and thus inappropriate treatment applied. This talk presents an alternative means of representing diagnostic resources within the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) that can simulate the effect both in risk, resource consumption, and competition for resources of a missing or depleted diagnostic. The scenario where a differential diagnosis may not be possible for abdominal conditions that use an ultrasound machine as a diagnostic tool is considered. Two approaches for modeling the effect of not having a diagnostic capability on the medical system are demonstrated. In the “simple” approach, it is assumed that any abdominal condition requiring the ultrasound machine for diagnosis is mis-diagnosed and treated as an appendicitis. This is represented by replacing the treatment for the affected conditions with the treatment for appendicitis, thereby changing the optimized medical set available for treatment for the remainder of the mission. In the “complex” approach, MEDPRAT treatment clusters are utilized to capture and represent overlapping treatment between the misdiagnosed condition and appendicitis. This elicits both the effect that inappropriate treatment is applied, resulting in wasted resource consumption, and that treatment which was truly needed for the misdiagnosed condition was not applied, which reduces the treatment effectiveness. In this talk, results comparing the simple and complex diagnostic capability approach to a baseline where the diagnostic is treated as a traditional resource is presented. Either approach provides an option for a more analogous representation of diagnostic resources and provides insight into how the modeled spaceflight medical resources and outcomes change when that diagnostic is unavailable.

C. M. Gasiewski↗

NASA NTRS2024

Mineral Dust Optical Properties for Remote Sensing and Global Modeling: A Review

Dust plays a key role in many Earth system processes and is ubiquitous in the Martian atmosphere. Various intensive field campaigns, laboratory analyses, space-based remote sensing missions, and global modeling efforts aim to characterize dust optical properties. This is a bountiful time for dust scientists, and yet the interpretation of retrievals and comparison to models remains complicated by various conflicting assumptions that are part of each algorithm. For example, the conversion of satellite radiance measurements into products like aerosol optical depth for model evaluation depends upon aerosol properties like particle size and shape that are often prescribed and not part of the retrieval. Conversely, the model calculation of aerosol optical depth often uses different assumptions. The goal of this review is to first document algorithmic assumptions by various satellite retrieval products and models, and identify where there is consistency and where there are differences. In general, the differences documented in this paper reflect uncertainties resulting from incomplete observational characterization of dust aerosols and limitations in our understanding. Second, we note what observations might reduce uncertainties in our knowledge and bring greater consistency to retrievals and models, allowing for a more rigorous and harmonious comparison. The lack of comprehensive and realistic shape models for dust is an outstanding issue, such that closure between forward modeling from particle refractive index, shape, and size and observed optical properties cannot be achieved. Limitations in the computational methods that must be applied to model scattering from complex shapes also makes accurate optical modeling for dust challenging. Field observations indicate the persistence of coarse and giant dust particles at higher altitudes and farther downwind from their source than previously expected. Remote sensing retrieval algorithms based on observations at visible wavelengths have limited sensitivity to these particles and generally do not consider them, although a recent product based on longwave radiances is encouraging. Current measurements of the refractive index of bulk dust and fundamental dust minerology components such as hematite vary widely, inhibiting attempts to represent the variability in dust optical properties and forcing, as expected from different major dust source regions on Earth that have varying mineralogical composition. Some remote sensing retrieval algorithms allow for limited refractive index variability in their inversion solutions through mixing with other fine mode aerosol models, or optimizing the single scattering albedo, but Earth system models surveyed for this paper assume a globally uniform, size-invariant refractive index. Although no Martian dust samples have yet been returned to Earth, remote sensing observations indicate that Martian dust is globally homogenous in composition, and a single spectral refractive index assumption has been widely adopted to represent Martian dust. The lack of comprehensive, statistically representative measurements of dust particle microphysical properties (size distribution, morphology, complex index of refraction spectra, internal structure heterogeneity), and the resulting optical properties, limits our ability to verify the fidelity of these assumptions. A chain of measurements is needed, ranging from characterizing individual dust mineralogy components (e.g., pure hematite and goethite) to in situ sampling of complex atmospheric aerosol mixtures. Such results could be applied to both remote sensing retrievals that characterize the optical properties of the total aerosol burden in the atmosphere from total radiance measurements, and to global models that represent the total aerosol burden in the atmosphere by building it up from the balance of individual aerosol sources and sinks.

Aeolian dust↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Resolving Wave-Particle Duality Could Accelerate the Mass Production of Quantum Computers

Quantum computers, hypothesized in 1980s, use concepts of superposition and entanglement phenomena. Although theoretical propositions and associated search algorithms for accurate measurements are being generated, the development of practical quantum computers themselves are advancing very slowly requiring enormous time and investments. The underlying concepts of a quantum computer are not new to the optical domain. However, the crucial enabling concepts of Entanglement and Superposition Principle are remaining clouded under the unresolved postulates, Wave-Particle Duality (WPD), and Wave Packet Reduction (WPR), implicating incompleteness in the interpretations of the mathematical formalism behind Quantum Mechanics. The WPD debate started during late1600 between Newton and Huygens. Young’s resolution of WPD through his double-slit experiment in 1802 was effectively overturned by Einstein’s interpretation of photoelectric effect as due to “indivisible light quanta”. However, Einstein disowned his “light quanta” postulate shortly before his death in1955, even though it had earned him the Nobel Prize. We resolve WPD by synthesizing Newton’s and Maxwell’s concepts and assume atoms do emit quanta but propagate as time-finite exponential pulses. This assumption also resolves WPR for light-matter interaction with the assumption that Schrodinger’s ψ represents atom’s internal dipolar amplitude stimulations. This over-turns Born’s interpretation that ψ only represents the abstract mathematical probability amplitude, rather than the physical “internal amplitude stimulation” of the quantum entity. However, our concept of atomic pulse emission forces us to re-derive the expression for the N-slit grating-spectrometer response since the classical derivation uses CW light, which does not exist. This pulsespectrometric response function strengthens our postulate since the grating response to the exponential pulse appears to be the convolution of a Lorentzian spectrum with the classical CW response function of the grating. The Fourier Transform of an exponential function is Lorentzian and QM predicts spontaneous emission line width to be Lorentzian. Then, conceptually one can extend the grating-expression (with N=2) to get the double-slit pattern. This approach preserves the classical causality that each of the two slits, like the N-signals out of a grating, are physically real and jointly stimulate the quantum detector array at the far field to generate the “Local” cosine fringes. The detector array executes the square modulus operation on its imposed dipolar amplitude stimulation and absorbs the necessary energy to fill up their quantum cups. Hence the double-slit pattern must also be “Local”, just as the N-slit grating spectrum is generated locally at the exit spectral-plane of the spectrometer. This removes the need to believe that “single photons” mysteriously generate the double slit pattern. Quantum computers, hypothesized in 1980s, use concepts of superposition and entanglement phenomena. Although theoretical propositions and associated search algorithms for accurate measurements are being generated, the development of practical quantum computers themselves are advancing very slowly requiring enormous time and investments. The underlying concepts of a quantum computer are not new to the optical domain. However, the crucial enabling concepts of Entanglement and Superposition Principle are remaining clouded under the unresolved postulates, Wave-Particle Duality (WPD), and Wave Packet Reduction (WPR), implicating incompleteness in the interpretations of the mathematical formalism behind Quantum Mechanics. The WPD debate started during late1600 between Newton and Huygens. Young’s resolution of WPD through his double-slit experiment in 1802 was effectively overturned by Einstein’s interpretation of photoelectric effect as due to “indivisible light quanta”. However, Einstein disowned his “light quanta” postulate shortly before his death in1955, even though it had earned him the Nobel Prize. We resolve WPD by synthesizing Newton’s and Maxwell’s concepts and assume atoms do emit quanta but propagate as time-finite exponential pulses. This assumption also resolves WPR for light-matter interaction with the assumption that Schrodinger’s ψ represents atom’s internal dipolar amplitude stimulations. This over-turns Born’s interpretation that ψ only represents the abstract mathematical probability amplitude, rather than the physical “internal amplitude stimulation” of the quantum entity. However, our concept of atomic pulse emission forces us to re-derive the expression for the N-slit grating-spectrometer response since the classical derivation uses CW light, which does not exist. This pulsespectrometric response function strengthens our postulate since the grating response to the exponential pulse appears to be the convolution of a Lorentzian spectrum with the classical CW response function of the grating. The Fourier Transform of an exponential function is Lorentzian and QM predicts spontaneous emission line width to be Lorentzian. Then, conceptually one can extend the grating-expression (with N=2) to get the double-slit pattern. This approach preserves the classical causality that each of the two slits, like the N-signals out of a grating, are physically real and jointly stimulate the quantum detector array at the far field to generate the “Local” cosine fringes. The detector array executes the square modulus operation on its imposed dipolar amplitude stimulation and absorbs the necessary energy to fill up their quantum cups. Hence the double-slit pattern must also be “Local”, just as the N-slit grating spectrum is generated locally at the exit spectral-plane of the spectrometer. This removes the need to believe that “single photons” mysteriously generate the double slit pattern.

Quantum Computer↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Component Characterization of an eVTOL Reference Model for Crashworthiness Studies

Researchers at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center (LaRC) have conducted a series of structural component and seat level tests to improve finite element model (FEM) characterization of a representative vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) test article developed by NASA. A full-scale dynamic test was conducted on the representative eVTOL test article in November of 2022. The test article represented a high wing, six passenger eVTOL design concept and is referred to as the lift plus cruise (LPC) test article. The full-scale test identified limitations in the analytical models used to predict aircraft structural response, in particular the composite material models did not effectively capture brittle failure of the structure which were measured during dynamic loading. To better understand the mechanism behind the composite material failure mechanisms observed and to improve the FEM, intact sample specimens of the composite airframe structure were recovered from the test article post-test and used in material characterization testing. In addition, the seat configurations used in the LPC test article were further studied using isolated seat and anthropomorphic test device (ATD) drop tower testing. Dynamic compression tests and three-point bend tests, conducted at varied impact speeds, were performed on the recovered frame section specimens. Additional testing was conducted to characterize the material properties of the forming foam, which remained in the frames after fabrication. These tests were used to improve characterization of the damage and failure parameters of the composite material model used in the FE model of the LPC test article. Seat level tests were conducted on the seats used in the LPC test article using acceleration pulses inclusive of current general aviation and rotorcraft certification load levels as well as conditions representative of those measured at the seat base during the LPC test. The structural material models and seat environment models of the LPC test article FEM were calibrated using the generated component test data. The updates made to these models were then integrated into the LPC FEM and simulated in the full-scale test condition. Results demonstrated the effectiveness of component testing to improve predictive capability of composite aerospace structural models within the crash and dynamic loading environments. Demonstration of the LPC FEM response across an accumulation of coupon, component, seat environment, and full-scale test levels provides confidence in the predictive capability of this model for future use in the study of occupant safety within eVTOL relevant crash environments.

Craswhorthiness↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Component Characterization of an eVTOL Reference Model for Crashworthiness Studies

Craswhorthiness↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Deflection of Solar Energetic Protons by an Ion Thruster

While Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) represent a long-term cancer risk to deep space human missions, Solar Energetic Particles (SEP) represent a significant acute radiation hazard to human spaceflight. This work investigates wave-particle interactions caused by the incidence of a beam of energetic protons, representing a notional SEP event, onto a cloud of ions representing a notional ion thruster plume. The resulting electromagnetic ion/ion instability is developed to investigate the degree to which energetic protons can be scattered out of the initial beam. This work includes investigations of deflection rate dependences on incident SEP energy and flux, ion thruster power and orientation relative to SEP incidence, plume ion species, and background plasma. Also investigated are the spectrum and angular distribution of electromagnetic radiation resulting from the wave-particle interactions. The primary objective of this investigation is to develop a technique for active mitigation of SEP radiation threats to spacecraft and crew, by exploring the wave-particle interaction of a SEP event with the plasma plume expelled from an ion thruster. Since the cost in expended fuel restricts this technique to intermittent use during interplanetary flights, effective prediction of when a SEP event might impact the mission is still important, and the observation of conditions that might lead to SEP events, human-in-the-loop space weather analyses, and development of SEP prediction models remain essential to crew safety, spacecraft function, and mission success.

Interplanetary Space Flight↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Historical Overview of the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office’s Laboratory Optical Measurements

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has used laboratory measurements to help bring ground-based measurements together with models to ascertain Earth-orbiting target parameters of interest to support various orbital debris models. In 2005, the Optical Measurement Center (OMC) was established to simulate space-based illumination conditions using equipment and techniques that recreate telescopic observations, particularly source-target-sensor orientations. The intent was to recreate light curves using known aspect angles of known targets and phase angles (angle is defined by the vertex between illumination source-object-detector) to complement telescopic observations that could be used to update the current optical size estimation model (OSEM) – a model that converts object brightness into size for orbital debris models. To support the above goals, the laboratory has undergone several equipment upgrades to increase capabilities over almost 20 years of operation. The primary instrumentation acquires reflectance measurements and includes a solar-like light source, CCD camera with astrometric filters, and robotic arm. A rotary arm was added approximately five years after full operation to allow acquisition through a full 360° range of phase angles. Another part of the OMC instrumentation is a field spectrometer, predominately used for field operations to acquire pre- and post-flight spacecraft material spectral measurements. Additionally, reflectance spectroscopy of various materials is also of interest resulting from hypervelocity impact tests, pristine spacecraft materials, or samples of materials that are used in spacecraft design. These measurements are stored in NASA’s Spectral Material Database, a resource that is still being populated today. The study of spectral measurements also enabled the development of spectral unmixing routines to support the identification of spacecraft materials from spectral data gathered by ground based telescopes. Preliminary OMC investigations focused on feasibility studies to acquire 360° rotation light curves of simple shapes at a single-phase angle and extended to measurements of representative fragments from ground-based explosion tests. To correlate the light curves with ground-based optical measurements, a focused study on high area to mass materials was conducted in support of a newly identified population (at the time) in geosynchronous orbit (GEO) consisting of multi-layered insulation. To further characterize orbital debris, a larger selection of materials was analyzed using laboratory photometric measurements that included representative targets from pristine spacecraft materials and ground-based impact tests. Around 2012, an initiative was requested to understand the feasibility of active debris removal (ADR) of larger targets using grappling methods for spent rocket bodies. Using a priori information on selected targets, scaled-down versions of rocket bodies were generated thanks to improvements in 3D printing technology and machining. These targets were studied in the OMC to understand rotation characteristics. These were compared with telescopic data to determine if the tumble and rotation angles would allow ADR. In 2013, the OMC focused on combining spectral measurements with photometric data to characterize GEO orbital debris. Several years later, NASA acquired a Titan III Transtage test article from “The Boneyard” with a high-resemblance to on-orbit Titan III Transtage rocket bodies, allowing physical access to a representative rocket body that suffered fragmentations in GEO. This prompted the creation of 3D models using lidar technology and spectral measurements of the materials. Focused research also transitioned to specific materials (i.e., solar cells) when telescopic surveys requested characterization of specific GEO targets. In the different research products presented, the focus has been to understand the various parameters that influence optical size estimation, including albedo, phase functions, and brightness variations. Work in this area continues with newer sources of data, including DebriSat, a high-fidelity 56-kg spacecraft replica representative of a modern low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite subjected to a laboratory hypervelocity impact test to understand fragmentation events and to support updates to satellite breakup models and size estimation models. Utilizing the vast population of fragments from DebriSat and prior laboratory impact experiments, the ODPO has focused on acquiring bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) data to characterize targets in the laboratory, thus removing aspect angle dependencies. Additionally, the DebriSat project has provided improved processes for measuring size via image acquisition, such that a true fragment size can be directly compared to the derived size using the OSEM. The team continues to assess BRDFs and use spectral measurement data to investigate the parameters used in the OSEM, specifically magnitudes, albedo, and phase functions.

Heather Cowardin↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Laboratory Radar Measurements in Support of the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office’s Size Estimation Model

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) relies on ground-based radar measurements from both the Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR) and the Goldstone Solar System Radar (Goldstone) to characterize mm to cm debris population in low Earth orbit (LEO). Radar measurements help characterize the size of orbital debris objects, particularly fragmentation debris. However, debris size is not directly measured by radar but inferred from the measured radar cross section (RCS) which depends on several parameters in addition to physical size including electrical conductivity and polarization. To interpret the observed RCS of orbital debris objects detected by radar measurements as physical sizes, NASA uses an empirical size estimation model (SEM) based on laboratory RCS measurements of breakup fragments generated during hypervelocity impact tests as well as some pieces of non-impact-generated “artificial” debris-like objects expected to be representative of the debris population. Since the development of the ODPO SEM, many new materials have been introduced to spacecraft construction. Consequently, ODPO plans to update the radar SEM based on planned laboratory RCS measurements of debris fragments from DebriSat, a ground-based hypervelocity impact experiment conducted in 2014 that consisted of a high-fidelity spacecraft model characteristic of a modern LEO spacecraft. Prior to measuring DebriSat fragments, a set of calibration targets with well-defined geometries and material compositions were measured at The Ohio State University’s ElectroScience Laboratory (OSU-ESL) compact radar range. These calibration measurements help to validate, and understand any limitations of, laboratory measurements of RCS. Calibration targets include idealizations of typical shape categories seen in DebriSat fragments such as nuggets, flat plates, and cylinders. As with DebriSat, calibration target materials were chosen to represent typical modern-day spacecraft components and include stainless steel, aluminum, printed circuit board (PCB) substrate, and carbon fiber-reinforced polymer (CFRP). These materials also represent a wide range of electrical conductivities, which strongly influences measured RCS and inferred target size. The RCS calibration measurements were collected over a frequency sweep from 2 to 18 GHz and stepping through different azimuth angles from 0 to 360 degrees at an elevation of 0 degrees. A second set of calibration measurements is in work consisting of more complex shapes such as bent rods and plates as well as different mounting options including epoxy and a 3D printed holder. These further measurements along with our initial calibration set will inform selection of representative DebriSat fragments for laboratory RCS measurements that will contribute to the planned update to the ODPO radar SEM. An appropriate subset of both the radar calibration and DebriSat samples will also be measured in the ODPO Optical Measurements Center to cross-calibrate size estimates over these different wavelength regimes.

Radar↗

DOE OSTI2014

Systems and methods for sensing occupancy

A computer implemented method for sensing occupancy of a workspace includes creating a difference image that represents luminance differences of pixels in past and current images of the workspace resulting from motion in the workspace, determining motion occurring in regions of the workspace based on the difference image, and altering a workspace environment based at least in part on the determined motion. The method also includes determining which pixels in the difference image represent persistent motion that can be ignored and determining which pixels representing motion in the difference image are invalid because the pixels are isolated from other pixels representing motion.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2015

Graph modeling systems and methods

An apparatus and a method for vulnerability and reliability modeling are provided. The method generally includes constructing a graph model of a physical network using a computer, the graph model including a plurality of terminating vertices to represent nodes in the physical network, a plurality of edges to represent transmission paths in the physical network, and a non-terminating vertex to represent a non-nodal vulnerability along a transmission path in the physical network. The method additionally includes evaluating the vulnerability and reliability of the physical network using the constructed graph model, wherein the vulnerability and reliability evaluation includes a determination of whether each terminating and non-terminating vertex represents a critical point of failure. The method can be utilized to evaluate wide variety of networks, including power grid infrastructures, communication network topologies, and fluid distribution systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2015

A Probabilistic Framework for Quantifying Mixed Uncertainties in Cyber Attacker Payoffs

Quantification and propagation of uncertainties in cyber attacker payoffs is a key aspect within multiplayer, stochastic security games. These payoffs may represent penalties or rewards associated with player actions and are subject to various sources of uncertainty, including: (1) cyber-system state, (2) attacker type, (3) choice of player actions, and (4) cyber-system state transitions over time. Past research has primarily focused on representing defender beliefs about attacker payoffs as point utility estimates. More recently, within the physical security domain, attacker payoff uncertainties have been represented as Uniform and Gaussian probability distributions, and mathematical intervals. For cyber-systems, probability distributions may help address statistical (aleatory) uncertainties where the defender may assume inherent variability or randomness in the factors contributing to the attacker payoffs. However, systematic (epistemic) uncertainties may exist, where the defender may not have sufficient knowledge or there is insufficient information about the attacker’s payoff generation mechanism. Such epistemic uncertainties are more suitably represented as generalizations of probability boxes. This paper explores the mathematical treatment of such mixed payoff uncertainties. A conditional probabilistic reasoning approach is adopted to organize the dependencies between a cyber-system’s state, attacker type, player actions, and state transitions. This also enables the application of probabilistic theories to propagate various uncertainties in the attacker payoffs. An example implementation of this probabilistic framework and resulting attacker payoff distributions are discussed. A goal of this paper is also to highlight this uncertainty quantification problem space to the cyber security research community and encourage further advancements in this area.

cyber attacker payoffs↗

DOE OSTI2016

Semiconductor adiabatic qubits

A quantum computing device that includes a plurality of semiconductor adiabatic qubits is described herein. The qubits are programmed with local biases and coupling terms between qubits that represent a problem of interest. The qubits are initialized by way of a tuneable parameter, a local tunnel coupling within each qubit, such that the qubits remain in a ground energy state, and that initial state is represented by the qubits being in a superposition of |0> and |1> states. The parameter is altered over time adiabatically or such that relaxation mechanisms maintain a large fraction of ground state occupation through decreasing the tunnel coupling barrier within each qubit with the appropriate schedule. The final state when tunnel coupling is effectively zero represents the solution state to the problem represented in the |0> and |1> basis, which can be accurately read at each qubit location.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2017

Over-voltage protection system and method

An over-voltage protection system includes an electronic valve connected across two terminals of a circuit and an over-voltage detection circuit connected across one of the plurality of semiconductor devices for detecting an over-voltage across the circuit. The electronic valve includes a plurality of semiconductor devices connected in series. The over-voltage detection circuit includes a voltage divider circuit connected to a break-over diode in a way to provide a representative low voltage to the break-over diode and an optocoupler configured to receive a current from the break-over diode when the representative low voltage exceeds a threshold voltage of the break-over diode indicating an over-voltage condition. The representative low voltage provided to the break-over diode represents a voltage across the one semiconductor device. A plurality of self-powered gate drive circuits are connected to the plurality of semiconductor devices, wherein the plurality of self-powered gate drive circuits receive over-voltage triggering pulses from the optocoupler during the over-voltage condition and switch on the plurality of semiconductor devices to bypass the circuit.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Evaluating Safety with Automated Vehicles at Signalized Intersections: Application of Adaptive Cruise Control in Mixed Traffic

Automated Vehicles (AV) can potentially improve the performance of transportation system by reducing human errors and enhancing mobility and safety. In lower levels of automation, humans are still controlling the vehicle and receiving some advisory information regarding their surrounding environment. This paper investigates the safety impact of low and high levels of AVs, and their interaction with conventional human-driven vehicles at intersections. In order to enhance our understanding of the future interactions between conventional vehicles with AVs, we developed a framework to simulate the mixed traffic environment. Different market penetration scenarios are simulated using VENTOS (VEhicular NeTwork Open Simulator) software. A modified Wiedemann car-following model was calibrated to represent the behavior of human drivers of both conventional and low-level AVs, while an Adaptive Cruise Control model was used to represent high-level AVs. Notably, this study investigates purely the automation improvement in the system. We modified the acceleration and deceleration regimes of the Wiedemann model and tuned it by harnessing real-world connected vehicle data. Next, the simulation was calibrated utilizing two measures of driving volatility to ensure it closely represents the volatility measures of the real-world data. To evaluate the safety performance of a representative intersection under different scenarios, the number of longitudinal conflicts and driving volatility are used as surrogate safety indicators. The results reveal that increase in market penetration rate of LAVs and HAVs substantially improves intersection safety performance by reducing the number of conflicts and driving volatility.

Arvin, Ramin↗

DOE OSTI2019

Analysis and categorization of eye tracking data describing scanpaths

Described herein are various technologies pertaining to analysis of eye tracking data. A head and/or eyes of an observer who is viewing a visual stimulus is monitored, and eye tracking data that is representative of the path of the eyes of the observer over time (a scanpath) is generated. The eye tracking data is time-series data that defines the location of the focal point, or other measurable characteristics, of the eyes of the observer on the visual stimulus over time. A feature vector is constructed based upon the eye tracking data, where the feature vector is representative of the eye tracking data, and is thus representative of the scanpath. The feature vector is compared with other feature vectors to identify scanpaths that correspond to the scanpath represented by the feature vector.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2019

The Potential Role of Concentrating Solar Power within the Context of DOE's 2030 Solar Cost Targets

For solar electricity generating technologies to be cost competitive at a large scale with conventionally generated electricity, cost reductions are needed for both concentrating solar power (CSP) and solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. In 2011, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) established solar cost targets that corresponded to reducing CSP and PV prices by approximately 75% in order to achieve a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of $0.06 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) for both utility-scale PV and high-capacity factor CSP-TES systems in 2020. Utility-scale PV achieved its 2020 cost target in 2017, and recent estimates for the LCOE of CSP-TES with a molten-salt power tower system are approximately $0.10/kWh for projects that are expected to come online in 2020, which represents a substantial reduction since 2010 - when the LCOE for CSP-TES was around $0.21/kWh. To continue the momentum for cost reductions in solar technologies, DOE recently established cost targets for 2030 that would make solar one of the lowest-cost sources of new electricity in the United States. For CSP-based systems, the new targets correspond to an LCOE in 2030 of $0.05/kWh for a dispatchable, high-capacity factor CSP-TES plant configuration. This aggressive target would have been unimaginable a decade ago. However, building on the previously described reduction in CSP-TES costs over the past decade, recent announcements suggest the next phase of projects will continue this downward trend through lower installation costs, attractive financing, longer-duration PPAs, and the ability to capitalize on the value that the flexibility of storage brings CSP. This presentation summarizes a recent report that evaluates the potential impacts of simultaneously achieving the 2030 cost targets for PV and CSP-TES, and it includes a detailed evaluation of the role that CSP-TES could play in realizing those impacts. The scenarios in this analysis are designed to isolate and assess the potential impacts of achieving DOE's 2030 cost targets for CSP-TES and PV, and they do not reflect the potential benefits or system impacts associated with success in other DOE research programs. The low-cost solar scenarios include DOE's 2030 solar cost targets--which are represented via a roughly 50% reduction in LCOE by 2030 (from current levels) with additional cost reductions thereafter representing technology learning and/or improvements that could result from innovation - coupled with a variety of market, technology, and demand assumptions. With these assumptions, the evolution of the contiguous U.S. electricity system is evaluated with NREL's Renewable Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, which was specifically designed to represent the temporal and locational value of renewable generation technologies in the U.S. power system. ReEDS relies on system-wide least-cost optimization to estimate the type and location of future generation and transmission capacity. In addition, it accounts for the locational and temporal variations in variable renewable technologies, including the need for new transmission, curtailment, dynamic capacity value, and the need to hold operating reserves to account for the uncertainty and variability of these technologies. This presentation summarizes the key findings that arise from a detailed evaluation of the impacts of achieving DOE's 2030 cost targets for CSP-TES and PV systems, noting again the inherent challenges associated with modeling future scenarios of the large, complex system electricity system in the contiguous United States within the context of various market features.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Linear optimal power flow system and method

An electric power system or power grid is optimized using a computer-implemented tool the represents in computer memory the optimization function and at least one constraint, which the processor operates upon using a linear programming solver algorithm. The constraints are represented in memory as data structures that include both real and reactive power terms, corresponding to at least one of a power flow model and a transmission line model. The transmission line model is represented using a piecewise linear representation. The power flow model may also include for each node in the power system a real power loss term representing transmission line loss allocated to that node.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2017

Versatile Irradiation Test Reactor User Needs Assessment

An assessment of potential test reactor industry user needs has been completed. The needs of DOE R&D programs have also been assessed and included in this document. A process of discussions with industry representatives under non-disclosure agreements (NDAs) was undertaken during the last half of the calendar year. This activity was performed by staff members of the Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). Contributors to this assessment were selected from a list of representative organizations. As the duration for completion was short, all reactor vendors were not included and some chose not to participate. However, the contributors represent well-established reactor vendors and reactor developers working to bring new designs to the reactor market. Equally important was the breadth of the reactor technologies that are included: sodium cooled fast reactors, lead cooled fast reactors, high-temperature gas-cooled reactors, light water reactors and molten salt reactors. Throughout this report the term Molten Salt Reactors is used to represent all of the variants of molten-salt cooled reactors with either dissolved or solid fuel: fast, thermal, dissolved and prismatic fueled.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗