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At least 1,027 records · Page 57

Natural Language Processing-Enhanced Nuclear Industry Operating Experience Data Analysis: Aggregation and Interpretation of Multi-Report Analysis Results

Industry-wide operating experience is a critical source of raw data for reliability and risk model parameter estimations for nuclear power plants. A large portion of operating experience data are failure events stored as reports that contain unstructured data, such as narratives. In current practice, a failure report is usually reviewed and manually coded by analysts. The coding is based on extracting several event characteristics such as system name, component type, sub-part type, failure mode, and failure cause. Event narratives are mostly used to help understand events and extract their characteristics. In this line of research, we aim to maximize the usage of event narratives by leveraging natural language processing (NLP) methods to automatically convert an event narrative to a causal graph. This research has promise to improve physical understanding of failure initiation and propagation and to facilitate use of non-failure data (e.g., near-misses and degradations) to complement the limited data pool of failures. In our previous work, we developed an NLP tool and applied it to analyze a number of licensee event reports submitted by U.S. nuclear power plants to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. In this paper, we will report our recent research progress in aggregating the results of multiple reports, developing network model(s), and drawing statistical insights.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Geothermal-Enabled Zero Energy Electric Community: An Integrated System Design Study

In northern climates, developing a zero-energy community is increasingly costly. Building loads are higher, thanks to the colder weather, and solar PV is both less effective, due to lower solar incidence, and misalignment with the buildings' energy needs (summer production, winter demands). We present a novel application for geothermal energy production in support of a zero-energy community, combining appropriate energy efficiency (demand design), geothermal production (supply design), and asset dispatch as an integrated technoeconomic package. This poster presents the process used to explore this system integration challenge, initial results, and discusses some of the technical opportunities for increasing the community-scale adoption of geothermal as an electric and thermal resource. Results indicate that under certain conditions, community-scale geothermal resources are quite competitive with today's grid tariffs and with PV, showing an LCOE within $0.01/kWh before consideration of important grid modernization factors such as resiliency and reliability.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Enhanced Geothermal Shot Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Office: Preprint

In 2021, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) began the Energy Earthshots initiatives to accelerate breakthroughs of reliable clean energy solutions within the next 10 years. In 2022, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was asked by the DOE Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) to provide analysis for developing Energy Earthshot targets for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), human-made underground reservoirs that extract thermal energy from the earth for electricity generation and/or heating applications. The Enhanced Geothermal Shot analysis is based on the technology assumptions in the 2019 GTO report GeoVision: Harnessing the Heat Beneath Our Feet. For Earthshot, we updated some of the technology cost and performance assumptions based on recent technology advances and updated the EGS resource potential to include more detailed analysis. We used the updated EGS supply cost curves to forecast the amount of geothermal electricity generation that could be deployed in the US by 2050 using a capacity expansion model. The results were used to develop a cost target for EGS. On September 8th, 2022, the Enhanced Geothermal Shot was announced. Its target - reduce the cost of EGS by 90%, to $45 per megawatt hour by 2035. This paper summarizes the cost and resource assumptions used in the Enhanced Geothermal Shot. It describes the assumptions used in the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model to forecast geothermal deployment and discusses the results.

analysis↗

The Role of the U.S. Electric Distribution System in Serving Data Center and Other Large Loads

The rapid expansion of data centers in the United States is reshaping how the electric distribution system must plan for and accommodate large load interconnections. This report evaluates the role of the distribution grid in serving these loads, from small edge facilities to hyperscale campuses. Using national datasets, utility filings, and industry studies, we assess demand growth, reliability requirements, interconnection thresholds, and infrastructure needs at substations and feeders. The analysis highlights the mismatch between fast data center development timelines and slower utility planning and construction cycles, as well as strategies such as phased energization, on-site generation, hosting capacity maps, and structured interconnection frameworks. While focused on data centers, the insights also apply to other high-density loads such as advanced manufacturing, hydrogen production, and electrified transportation. The report concludes with approaches to align planning processes, transparency tools, and regulatory frameworks so utilities can manage new large loads in ways that support a reliable and resilient grid.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Analysis of Shutdown Dose Rate in Fusion Energy Systems Using Hybrid Monte Carlo/Deterministic Techniques - Paper 138

Accurate assessments of shutdown dose rate (SDDR) are critical to support operation, maintenance, and waste disposal planning and to guide possible design changes of critical components in fusion energy systems. An SDDR calculation involves three steps: 1. a neutron transport calculation to determine the space and energy neutron flux distributions, 2. an activation calculation for computing the photon source distribution, and 3. a photon transport calculation for the estimation of the final SDDR. A companion paper describes the challenges of SDDR computations in fusion energy systems and the status of the techniques that are currently being used in SDDR analysis. Of these techniques, the rigorous 2-step (R2S) computational system entails Monte Carlo (MC) neutron and photon transport calculations coupled with a comprehensive activation step using a dedicated inventory code and library. The use of global MC variance reduction techniques was suggested for accelerating the SDDR MC neutron transport calculation. These techniques, which attempt to calculate MC tallies with nearly uniform relative uncertainties in both the low-flux space-energy regions and the high-flux space-energy regions, do not preferentially focus the MC computational efforts toward space-energy regions of high importance to the final decay dose. The ability of these approaches to accurately predict SDDR is inhibited by their prohibitive computational costs, which will be on the order of thousands of processor-years for full-scale modeling of an entire fusion plant. The companion paper describes the theoretical background of the Multi-Step Consistent Adjoint Driven Importance Sampling (MS-CADIS) method, which has been proposed to speed up SDDR MC neutron calculations. The MS-CADIS method uses the CADIS method, which has been successfully used for more than a decade in shielding calculations, but focuses on multistep shielding calculations such as SDDR analyses. The companion paper also describes a new method for calculating the uncertainties in SDDR due to uncertainties in the MC neutron calculation. This new method of uncertainty propagation uses the MS-CADIS neutron adjoint source to propagate the uncertainties in the neutron fluxes to the SDDR. This paper describes the application of the MS-CADIS method for speeding up the SDDR MC calculations and for calculating the SDDR uncertainty due to the neutron flux uncertainties. A new metric for assessing the reliability of SDDR calculations was also suggested and used in this analysis. The ITER benchmark problem was used in this analysis. The problem resembles the configuration and geometrical arrangement of an upper port plug in ITER. The analysis compared the efficiency of the MS-CADIS method to the traditional approach of using global MC variance reduction techniques for speeding up SDDR MC neutron calculation. The application of the MS-CADIS method to SDDR calculations in fusion energy systems was tested using the ITER benchmark problem. Compared to the standard FW-CADIS method, the increase in the efficiency of the SDDR neutron MC calculation due to the use of the MS-CADIS method was between 18% and 69%. The MS-CADIS method also increases the fraction of non-zero-scoring mesh tally elements in the space-energy regions of high importance to the final SDDR. Implementation of the MS-CADIS method in the SCALE and the ADVANTG code systems is currently under way. (authors)

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

System Health and Status Reporting is Used to Improve Infrastructure Systems at the Hanford Site - 20449

Reliable physical infrastructure systems are vital to completing the clean-up mission and the start-up and commissioning of new nuclear waste processing facilities at the Hanford Site. Key infrastructure systems at Hanford include water, sewer, and electrical utilities, roads, telecommunications/network systems, and fire systems. All of the infrastructure systems are non-nuclear, General Service systems that are being maintained under formal engineering configuration control and none are specifically credited in any documented safety analysis (DSA). Starting in calendar year 2017, the Hanford Site's infrastructure and services contractor started producing system health and status reports for a total of 15 critical infrastructure systems as means to get a better understanding of each system's health and how it could be improved to ensure better and more reliable service delivery. As the reporting, tracking, and use of the metrics has matured, the number of systems for which reports are being developed has been expanded to a total of 23. Each of the critical infrastructure systems are assigned primary and alternate design authorities that complete qualifications on each assigned system. The design authorities actively manage and maintain configuration control on each of their systems and track metrics associated with availability, maintenance (corrective and preventive), and configuration of the technical baseline. The metrics are based on the principles established in Chapter V of DOE O 420.1C, Facility Safety, [1] and have been tailored as appropriate to each of the key infrastructure systems. An overall assessment of system health is performed and documented on a routine basis (e.g., quarterly). Included in this documentation is a quantitative score for each of the metrics (i.e., availability, maintenance, configuration management) along with results of system walk-downs, description of any permanent design modifications, identification of new or emerging issues and vulnerabilities affecting the system, and an assessment by the design authority of actions necessary to improve the system health score. The overall status scores are calculated using a formula and based on a pre-determined grading scale, a color is assigned for simple presentation. The information gained from developing the reports is being used to (1) assist with making timely and better informed decisions through the use of solid technical bases that are increasing the overall reliability and capabilities of the Site's infrastructure systems as new expense and capital projects in the Reliability Projects Investment Portfolio (RPIP) are prioritized and executed; (2) feed the risk management program, and (3) integrate the technical content of Master Plans that describe the Site's needs for the system and the system's capabilities to meet those future needs. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Characterization of the KOI-94 system with transit timing variation analysis: Implication for the planet-planet eclipse

The KOI-94 system is a closely packed, multi-transiting planetary system discovered by the Kepler space telescope. It is known as the first system that exhibited a rare event called a 'planet-planet eclipse (PPE)', in which two planets partially overlap with each other in their double-transit phase. In this paper, we constrain the parameters of the KOI-94 system with an analysis of the transit timing variations (TTVs). Such constraints are independent of the radial velocity (RV) analysis recently performed by Weiss and coworkers, and valuable in examining the reliability of the parameter estimate using TTVs. We numerically fit the observed TTVs of KOI-94c, KOI-94d, and KOI-94e for their masses, eccentricities, and longitudes of periastrons, and obtain the best-fit parameters including m{sub c}=9.4{sub −2.1}{sup +2.4} M{sub ⊕}, m{sub d}=52.1{sub −7.1}{sup +6.9} M{sub ⊕}, m{sub e}=13.0{sub −2.1}{sup +2.5} M{sub ⊕}, and e ≲ 0.1 for all the three planets. While these values are mostly in agreement with the RV result, the mass of KOI-94d estimated from the TTV is significantly smaller than the RV value m {sub d} = 106 ± 11 M {sub ⊕}. In addition, we find that the TTV of the outermost planet KOI-94e is not well reproduced in the current modeling. We also present analytic modeling of the PPE and derive a simple formula to reconstruct the mutual inclination of the two planets from the observed height, central time, and duration of the brightening caused by the PPE. Based on this model, the implication of the results of TTV analysis for the time of the next PPE is discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

An efficient method to identify uncertainties of WRF-Solar variables in forecasting solar irradiance using a tangent linear sensitivity analysis

Uncertainty in predicting solar energy resources introduces major challenges in power system management and necessitates the development of reliable probabilistic solar forecasts. As the first part of the development of probabilistic forecasts based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar), this study presents a tangent linear approach to identify input variables responsible for the largest uncertainties in predicting surface solar irradiance and clouds. A tangent linear analysis is capable of efficiently investigating sensitivities of output variables with respect to various input variables of WRF-Solar because this approach avoids the computational burden of perturbing the initial conditions of individual input variables. We develop tangent linear models (TLMs) for six WRF-Solar physics packages that control the formation and dissipation of clouds and solar radiation, and we evaluate the validity of TLMs using a linearity test. The tangent linear sensitivity analysis is conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations to consider realistic input conditions. A simple method is used to quantify the impact of the uncertainty of input variables on the output variables from the TLMs. The results demonstrate that uncertainties in the output variables that are the focus of this study—including global horizontal irradiance, direct normal irradiance, cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes—are highly sensitive to uncertainties in 14 input variables. This study indicates that the tangent linear method can identify key variables of physics modules in WRF-Solar that can be stochastically perturbed to generate ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Integrated Multi-Fidelity Model and Co-Simulation Platform for Distribution System Transient and Dynamic Analysis—DistribuDyn

As inverter-based, distributed energy resources (DERs) and variable loads continue to proliferate across distribution systems, it is increasingly important to understand their impacts on system stability and reliability. However, most commercially available simulation tools for distribution planning primarily focus on steady-state and quasi-steady state analysis, offering limited capabilities to study transient and dynamic behaviors.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Risk-Based Dynamic Contingency Analysis Applied to Puerto Rico Electric Infrastructure

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Electricity and Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy have funded DOE National Laboratories to perform modeling, analysis, and high-level design of resilience-enhancement options for the power grid of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is one of the national laboratories contributing to the DOE effort. Under this funding, PNNL completed Phase I of their analysis in 2018, which identified high-priority transmission enhancements derived from detailed dynamic cascading analysis of severe contingencies, including a hurricane scenario example. This report describes additional analysis completed under Phase II, which was performed over 2019. The PNNL team applied decades of experience making complex power systems more resilient, reliable, secure, flexible, affordable and sustainable, with partners in government and industry. In this report, PNNL presents the Phase II analysis, in which a risk-based dynamic contingency analysis approach to evaluate impact of several hurricane scenarios was developed. This approach was used to identify high-priority enhancements and test resilience mitigation actions, including the evaluation of high-solar scenarios developed as a result of the 2019 Puerto Rico Integrated Resource Plan (IRP).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Trial Implementation of a Multihazard Risk Assessment Framework for High-Impact Low-Frequency Power Grid Events

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a risk framework for modeling high-impact, low-frequency power grid events to support risk-informed decisions. In this research article, we briefly recap the framework and demonstrate its implementation for seismic and geomagnetic hazards using a benchmark reliability test system. We describe integration of a collection of models implemented to perform hazard analysis, fragility evaluation, consequence estimation and post-event restoration. We demonstrate the value of the framework as a multi-hazard power grid risk assessment and management tool. The research will benefit transmission planners and emergency planners by improving their ability to maintain a resilient grid infrastructure against impacts from major events.

power grid, risk assessment, seismic hazard, dynam↗

Empirical Validation of Building Energy Modeling using Flexible Research Platform

Recently, efforts have been made to provide reliable empirical data for ANSI/ASHRAE Standard 140, Standard Method of Test for the Evaluation of Building Energy Analysis Computer Programs, to enable improved accuracy of building energy model (BEM) engines and improved characterization of their accuracy. The motivation for this effort is that the use of reliable empirical validation data sets in the evaluation of building energy modeling tools will lead to more consistent and validated simulation engines across all software vendors. This would expedite the use of building energy modeling in designing new buildings and retrofitting existing buildings, which delivers more energy efficient buildings.As part of a three-year multi-lab empirical validation project sponsored by U.S. DOE, this research project generated cooling season test plans by reviewing ASHRAE Standard 140, and the tests were performed based on the test plan. Finally, the experimental data sets were compared with the EnergyPlus model to demonstrate the validation procedure.

Im, Piljae↗

Sensitivity and Importance Measure Analyses for Various Design Architectures for High Safety-Significant Safety-Related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems of Nuclear Power Plants

A transition from analog instrumentation and control (I&C) technologies to digital I&C technologies is taking place for license renewals of existing nuclear power plants and for operating licenses of new advanced reactors. This transition necessitates research on risk and economic assessments of digital I&C technologies to ensure the long-term safety and reliability of vital systems, reduce uncertainty in licensing costs in addition to timeline, support integration of digital I&C systems in the plant, and find the most efficient technology upgrades. Adding redundancy within systems or components is a common means of improving design safety; however, it can also make designs more prone to common-cause failures (CCFs). Introducing diversity into redundant systems or components is a way to mitigate and possibly eliminate CCFs, but it also increases plant complexity and may be costly. The balance between redundancy and diversity remains a challenge for digital I&C systems. This study performs sensitivity and importance analyses for four design architectures of two digital I&C systems—the reactor-trip system and the engineered safety features actuation system. For each system, two architectures are examined, including a redundant, non-diverse configuration and a redundant, diverse configuration. The sensitivity analysis will provide insights on the impact of introducing diversity to system reliability. The importance results will help identify risk-significant and risk-sensitive components and failure modes, which may be good candidates for future design improvement.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Emission parameters and thermal management of single high-power 980-nm laser diodes

We report emission parameters of high-power cw 980-nm laser diodes (LDs) with a stripe contact width of 100 μm. On copper heat sinks of the C-mount type, a reliable output power of 10 W is obtained at a pump current of 10 A. Using a heat flow model derived from analysis of calculated and measured overall efficiencies at pump currents up to 20 A, we examine the possibility of raising the reliable power limit of a modified high-power LD mounted on heat sinks of the F-mount type using submounts with optimised geometric parameters and high thermal conductivity. The possibility of increasing the maximum reliable cw output power to 20 W with the use of similar laser crystals is discussed. (lasers)

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Early Cardiac Mitochondrial Molecular and Functional Responses to Acute Anthracycline Treatment in Wistar Rats

Abstract Doxorubicin (DOX) is an anticancer drug widely used to treat human and nonhuman tumors but the late and persistent cardio-toxicity reduces the therapeutic utility of the drug. The full mechanism(s) of DOX-induced acute, subchronic and delayed toxicity, which has a preponderant mitochondrial component, remains unclear; therefore, it is clinically relevant to identify early markers to identify patients who are predisposed to DOX-related cardiovascular toxicity. To address this, Wistar rats (16 weeks old) were treated with a single DOX dose (20 mg/kg, i.p.); then, mRNA, protein levels and functional analysis of mitochondrial endpoints were assessed 24 h later in the heart, liver, and kidney. Using an exploratory data analysis, we observed cardiac-specific alterations after DOX treatment for mitochondrial complexes III, IV, and preferentially for complex I. Conversely, the same analysis revealed complex II alterations are associated with DOX response in the liver and kidney. Interestingly, H2O2 production by the mitochondrial respiratory chain as well as loss of calcium-loading capacity, markers of subchronic toxicity, were not reliable indicators of acute DOX cardiotoxicity in this animal model. By using sequential principal component analysis and feature correlation analysis, we demonstrated for the first time alterations in sets of transcripts and proteins, but not functional measurements, that might serve as potential early acute markers of cardiac-specific mitochondrial toxicity, contributing to explain the trajectory of DOX cardiac toxicity and to develop novel interventions to minimize DOX cardiac liabilities.

Pereira, Gonçalo C.↗

PV Reliability Operations and Maintenance (PVROM) Database Initiative: 2014 Project Report

To fill a major knowledge gap, Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) are jointly engaged in a multi-year research effort, supported by the Department of Energy’s SunShot Program, to examine real-world photovoltaic (PV) plant reliability and performance. Findings and analyses, derived from field data documented in the PV Reliability Operations Maintenance (PVROM) database tool as well as from convened workshops and working group discussions, are intended to inform industry best practices around the optimal operations and maintenance (O&M) of solar PV assets. To improve upon and evolve existing solar PV O&M approaches, this report: 1. Provides perspective on the concept of PV “system” reliability and how it can inform plant design, operations, and maintenance decisions that produce better long-term outcomes; 2. Describes the PVROM data collection tool, its technical capabilities, and results generated from database content in 2014; 3. Presents ongoing research efforts that are meant to drive the solar industry toward PV O&M best practice protocols and standards; and 4. Reflects on future areas of inquiry that can help better forecast plant health (e.g., system component availability, component wear out, etc.) and associated lifecycle costs. Ultimately, this report adds to the knowledge base of improving PV system O&M activities by discussing data collection and analysis techniques that can be used to better understand and enhance the reliability, availability, and performance of a photovoltaic system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Validating modern methods for impurity analysis in fluoride salts

Salt impurities directly affect degradation of structural materials in molten salt environments, so impurity quantification and analysis of salts is important for the deployment of next generation molten salt nuclear reactors. Despite the importance of moisture and other oxygen containing impurities, reliable methods of measuring these impurities are not well qualified or commonly used. Herein, we present two methods for analysis of oxygen content and one method for analysis of hydrogen content in fluoride salts demonstrated on two batches of LiF-NaF-KF (FLiNaK) salt with differing purity levels. The intentional addition of varying amounts of oxygen and hydrogen to the FLiNaK salt as internal standards produced a linear response using a commercial combustion analysis instrument, and measured amounts were consistent with the standards. Overall, these results indicate the technique is a valid method for measuring oxygen and hydrogen content in fluoride salts. Corrosion studies of 316H in FLiNaK revealed 5 times more mass loss in the salt containing more impurities including hydrogen and transition metals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗