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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Learning Interactions in Complex Biological Systems

In this project, we developed novel methods for integrating simulation and data-driven methods to accelerate biomedical discovery. In particular, we exploit agent-based models of disease processes and deep reinforcement learning to identify potential novel multi-drug, patient-specific, and adaptive therapeutic strategies. We use the Innate Immune Response agent-based model (IIRABM) to model sepsis as a demonstration of our approach. We first calibrate the agent-based model using novel stochastic optimization algorithms develop in this project, then use the calibrated model to identify optimal cytokine mediation strategies using deep reinforcement learning (DRL). The learned policy achieves a dramatic reduction in mortality over a set of 500 simulated patients relative to standalone antibiotic therapy. Advantages of our approach are three-fold: 1) the use of simulation allows exploring therapeutic strategies beyond clinical practice and available data, 2) advances in DRL accommodate learning complex therapeutic strategies for complex biological systems, and 3) optimized treatments respond to a patient’s individual disease progression over time, therefore capturing both differences across patients and the inherent randomness of disease progression within a single patient. We hope that this work motivates both considering adaptive, personalized multi-cytokine mediation therapy for sepsis and exploiting simulation with DRL for precision medicine more broadly.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The PENELOPE Physics Models and Transport Mechanics. Implementation into Geant4

A translation of the PENELOPE physics subroutines to C++, designed as an extension of the GEANT4 toolkit, is presented. The Fortran code system PENELOPE performs Monte Carlo simulation of coupled electron-photon transport in arbitrary materials for a wide energy range, nominally from 50 eV up to 1 GeV. PENELOPE implements the most reliable interaction models that are currently available, limited only by the required generality of the code. In addition, the transport of electrons and positrons is simulated by means of an elaborate class II scheme in which hard interactions (involving deflection angles or energy transfers larger than pre-defined cutoffs) are simulated from the associated restricted differential cross sections. After a brief description of the interaction models adopted for photons and electrons/positrons, we describe the details of the class-II algorithm used for tracking electrons and positrons. The C++ classes are adapted to the specific code structure of GEANT4. They provide a complete description of the interactions and transport mechanics of electrons/positrons and photons in arbitrary materials, which can be activated from the G4ProcessManager to produce simulation results equivalent to those from the original PENELOPE programs. The combined code, named PENG4, benefits from the multi-threading capabilities and advanced geometry and statistical tools of GEANT4.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating disease surveillance strategies for early outbreak detection in contact networks with varying community structure

Disease surveillance systems allow public health agencies to respond to emerging diseases before they become widespread. Developing such systems requires identifying optimal ways to monitor in the context of an epidemic outbreak; this problem is known as sensor selection. Contact networks represent the dynamics of interaction in a population and are used to model how a disease spreads in a population and to explore strategies of sensor selection. We evaluated five sensor selection strategies on their ability to provide an early warning of a COVID-like outbreak in synthetic contact networks encapsulated in four network scenarios. Three of these scenarios assessed different aspects of community structure. The fourth scenario employed a contact network representing the population and interactions of 6.8 million people in New York City, constructed from an agent-based simulation using census and transportation data. This scenario exemplifies how sensor selection strategies may perform in a real-world, urban context. Our findings suggest that the choice of the optimal strategy depends heavily on the community structure of the network. Strategies that select highly connected nodes or maximize network coverage are the optimal surveillance strategy for outbreak detection in many network community structures. However, a naive implementation of these strategies may fail to provide an early warning at all—including in the New York City scenario. Moreover, these methods are impractical for real-world use as they require knowledge of the underlying contact network. Instead, a selection strategy that starts with a set of random nodes and then performs a random walk through a chain of neighbors reliably provides early warnings without requiring prior knowledge of the network. We find this method, called “random chain”, to be the most pragmatic for implementation in a real-world disease surveillance context.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

van der Waals Correction to the Physisorption of Graphene on Metal Surfaces

Adsorption is a scientifically and technologically important interfacial phenomenon, which however presents challenges to conventional density functional theory (DFT) due to the long-range van der Waals (vdW) interactions. We have developed a model of long-range vdW correction for physisorption of graphene (G) on metals with the Lifshitz–Zaremba–Kohn second-order perturbation theory, by incorporating dipole- and quadrupole-surface interactions and screening effects. The physisorption energies calculated by the model between graphene and eight metal surfaces (Al, Ni, Co, Pd, Pt, Cu, Ag, and Au), and the adsorption energies for the same G/metal structures from self-consistent DFT PBE (Perdew–Burke–Ernzerhof) calculations, are obtained in a range of distances between G and the metal surfaces. The sum of these two parts is the total adsorption energy as a function of the distance, from which the equilibrium distance and the binding energy are determined simultaneously. The results show high accuracy, with the mean absolute error (MAE) of binding energy of 7 meV and the MAE of equilibrium distance of 0.2 Å, significantly improving upon other vdW methods. Here, the PBE + vdW binding energy curves give better fits to the random phase approximation curves around the equilibrium distances than do the curves of other methods considered here. The higher-order quadrupole-surface correction is important and accounts for about 30% of the total vdW correction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Urbanization and malaria have a contextual relationship in endemic areas: A temporal and spatial study in Ghana

In West Africa, malaria is one of the leading causes of disease-induced deaths. Existing studies indicate that as urbanization increases, there is corresponding decrease in malaria prevalence. However, in malaria-endemic areas, the prevalence in some rural areas is sometimes lower than in some peri-urban and urban areas. Therefore, the relationship between the degree of urbanization, the impact of living in urban areas, and the prevalence of malaria remains unclear. This study explores this association in Ghana, using epidemiological data at the district level (2015–2018) and data on health, hygiene, and education. We applied a multilevel model and time series decomposition to understand the epidemiological pattern of malaria in Ghana. Then we classified the districts of Ghana into rural, peri-urban, and urban areas using administratively defined urbanization, total built areas, and built intensity. We converted the prevalence time series into cross-sectional data for each district by extracting features from the data. To predict the determinant most impacting according to the degree of urbanization, we used a cluster-specific random forest. We find that prevalence is impacted by seasonality, but the trend of the seasonal signature is not noticeable in urban and peri-urban areas. While urban districts have a slightly lower prevalence, there are still pockets with higher rates within these regions. These areas of high prevalence are linked to proximity to water bodies and waterways, but the rise in these same variables is not associated with the increase of prevalence in peri-urban areas. The increase in nightlight reflectance in rural areas is associated with an increased prevalence. We conclude that urbanization is not the main factor driving the decline in malaria. However, the data indicate that understanding and managing malaria prevalence in urbanization will necessitate a focus on these contextual factors. Finally, we design an interactive tool, ’malDecision’ that allows data-supported decision-making.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2007

Os-186 and Os-187 Enrichments and High-He-3/He-4 sources in the Earth's Mantle: Evidence from Icelandic Picrites

Picrites from the neovolcanic zones in Iceland display a range in Os-187/Os-188O from 0.1297 to 0.1381 ((gamma)Os = 0.0 to 6.5) and uniform Os-186/Os-188 of 0.1198375+/-32 (2 (sigma)). The value for Os-186/Os-188 is within uncertainty of the present-day value for the primitive upper mantle of 0.1198398+/-16. These Os isotope systematics are best explained by ancient recycled crust or melt enrichment in the mantle source region. If so, then the coupled enrichments displayed in Os-186/Os-188 and Os-187/Os-188 from lavas of other plume systems must result from an independent process, the most viable candidate at present remains core-mantle interaction. While some plumes with high He-3/He-4, such as Hawaii, appear to have been subjected to detectable addition of Os (and possibly He) from the outer core, others such as Iceland do not. A positive correlation between Os-187/Os-188 and He-3/He-4 from 9.6 to 19 RA in Iceland picrites is best modeled as mixtures of 500 Ma or older ancient recycled crust mixed with primitive mantle, creating a hybrid source region that subsequently mixes with the convecting MORB mantle during ascent and melting. This multistage mechanism to explain these isotope systematics is consistent with ancient recycled crust juxtaposed with more primitive, relatively He-rich mantle, in convective isolation from the upper mantle, most likely in the lowermost mantle. This is inconsistent with models that propose random mixing between heterogeneities in the convecting upper mantle as a mechanism to explain the observed isotopic variation in oceanic lavas or models that produce a high He-3/He-4 signature in melt depleted and strongly outgassed, He-poor mantle. Instead these systematics require a deep mantle source to explain the 3He/4He signature in Iceland lavas. The He-3/He-4 of lavas derived from the Iceland plume changed over time, from a maximum of 50 RA at 60 Ma, to approximately 25-27 RA at present. The changes are coupled with distinct compositional gaps between the different aged lavas when H-3/He-4 is plotted versus various geochemical parameters such as Nd-143/Nd-144 and La/Sm. These relationships can be interpreted as an increase in the proportion of ancient recycled crust in the upwelling plume over this time period.

Brandon, Alan D.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Statistical Mechanics of Turbulent Dynamos

Incompressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence and magnetic dynamos, which occur in magnetofluids with large fluid and magnetic Reynolds numbers, will be discussed. When Reynolds numbers are large and energy decays slowly, the distribution of energy with respect to length scale becomes quasi-stationary and MHD turbulence can be described statistically. In the limit of infinite Reynolds numbers, viscosity and resistivity become zero and if these values are used in the MHD equations ab initio, a model system called ideal MHD turbulence results. This model system is typically confined in simple geometries with some form of homogeneous boundary conditions, allowing for velocity and magnetic field to be represented by orthogonal function expansions. One advantage to this is that the coefficients of the expansions form a set of nonlinearly interacting variables whose behavior can be described by equilibrium statistical mechanics, i.e., by a canonical ensemble theory based on the global invariants (energy, cross helicity and magnetic helicity) of ideal MHD turbulence. Another advantage is that truncated expansions provide a finite dynamical system whose time evolution can be numerically simulated to test the predictions of the associated statistical mechanics. If ensemble predictions are the same as time averages, then the system is said to be ergodic; if not, the system is nonergodic. Although it had been implicitly assumed in the early days of ideal MHD statistical theory development that these finite dynamical systems were ergodic, numerical simulations provided sufficient evidence that they were, in fact, nonergodic. Specifically, while canonical ensemble theory predicted that expansion coefficients would be (i) zero-mean random variables with (ii) energy that decreased with length scale, it was found that although (ii) was correct, (i) was not and the expected ergodicity was broken. The exact cause of this broken ergodicity was explained, after much investigation, by greatly extending the statistical theory of ideal MHD turbulence. The mathematical details of broken ergodicity, in fact, give a quantitative explanation of how coherent structure, dynamic alignment and force-free states appear in turbulent magnetofluids. The relevance of these ideal results to real MHD turbulence occurs because broken ergodicity is most manifest in the ideal case at the largest length scales and it is in these largest scales that a real magnetofluid has the least dissipation, i.e., most closely approaches the behavior of an ideal magnetofluid. Furthermore, the effects grow stronger when cross and magnetic helicities grow large with respect to energy, and this is exactly what occurs with time in a real magnetofluid, where it is called selective decay. The relevance of these results found in ideal MHD turbulence theory to the real world is that they provide at least a qualitative explanation of why confined turbulent magnetofluids, such as the liquid iron that fills the Earth's outer core, produce stationary, large-scale magnetic fields, i.e., the geomagnetic field. These results should also apply to other planets as well as to plasma confinement devices on Earth and in space, and the effects should be manifest if Reynolds numbers are high enough and there is enough time for stationarity to occur, at least approximately. In the presentation, details will be given for both theoretical and numerical results, and references will be provided.

Shebalin, John V.↗
NASA NTRS2014

MHD Turbulence and Magnetic Dynamos

Incompressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence and magnetic dynamos, which occur in magnetofluids with large fluid and magnetic Reynolds numbers, will be discussed. When Reynolds numbers are large and energy decays slowly, the distribution of energy with respect to length scale becomes quasi-stationary and MHD turbulence can be described statistically. In the limit of infinite Reynolds numbers, viscosity and resistivity become zero and if these values are used in the MHD equations ab initio, a model system called ideal MHD turbulence results. This model system is typically confined in simple geometries with some form of homogeneous boundary conditions, allowing for velocity and magnetic field to be represented by orthogonal function expansions. One advantage to this is that the coefficients of the expansions form a set of nonlinearly interacting variables whose behavior can be described by equilibrium statistical mechanics, i.e., by a canonical ensemble theory based on the global invariants (energy, cross helicity and magnetic helicity) of ideal MHD turbulence. Another advantage is that truncated expansions provide a finite dynamical system whose time evolution can be numerically simulated to test the predictions of the associated statistical mechanics. If ensemble predictions are the same as time averages, then the system is said to be ergodic; if not, the system is nonergodic. Although it had been implicitly assumed in the early days of ideal MHD statistical theory development that these finite dynamical systems were ergodic, numerical simulations provided sufficient evidence that they were, in fact, nonergodic. Specifically, while canonical ensemble theory predicted that expansion coefficients would be (i) zero-mean random variables with (ii) energy that decreased with length scale, it was found that although (ii) was correct, (i) was not and the expected ergodicity was broken. The exact cause of this broken ergodicity was explained, after much investigation, by greatly extending the statistical theory of ideal MHD turbulence. The mathematical details of broken ergodicity, in fact, give a quantitative explanation of how coherent structure, dynamic alignment and force-free states appear in turbulent magnetofluids. The relevance of these ideal results to real MHD turbulence occurs because broken ergodicity is most manifest in the ideal case at the largest length scales and it is in these largest scales that a real magnetofluid has the least dissipation, i.e., most closely approaches the behavior of an ideal magnetofluid. Furthermore, the effects grow stronger when cross and magnetic helicities grow large with respect to energy, and this is exactly what occurs with time in a real magnetofluid, where it is called selective decay. The relevance of these results found in ideal MHD turbulence theory to the real world is that they provide at least a qualitative explanation of why confined turbulent magnetofluids, such as the liquid iron that fills the Earth's outer core, produce stationary, large-scale magnetic fields, i.e., the geomagnetic field. These results should also apply to other planets as well as to plasma confinement devices on Earth and in space, and the effects should be manifest if Reynolds numbers are high enough and there is enough time for stationarity to occur, at least approximately. In the presentation, details will be given for both theoretical and numerical results, and references will be provided.

Shebalin, John V↗
DOE OSTI2026

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Final Report on CFD and Thermal-Mechanical Stress Analysis of PWR Surge Line under Transient Condition Thermal Stratification and an Evolutionary Cyclic Plasticity Based Transformative Fatigue Evaluation Approach without Using S~N Curve: Rev. 1

This report presents an evolutionary cyclic plasticity based transformative approach for fatigue evaluation of safety critical components. This approach is generic which can be used not only for the present generation light water reactor components (which is our focus) but also for advanced reactor components. The approach is based on the fundamental concept of time-evolution of progressive fatigue damage rather than the end-of-life data based conventional S~N curve approaches. Series of fatigue tests on 316 stainless steel uniaxial specimens were conducted under strain-controlled and stress-controlled cyclic loading in two different environment such as in-air at 300 °C and PWR coolant water condition at 300 °C. Material models are developed to capture the uniaxial test data and are subsequently programmed into commercially available ABAQUS code to transform the uniaxial material behavior to multiaxial loading domain. The developed evolutionary cyclic-plasticity approach is verified by both analytical and 3D-FE modeling of uniaxial fatigue test specimens. Results show that the developed material models can capture the time-dependence of material hardening and softening with great accuracy. In addition, results show that the material models not only can capture the material behavior under constant amplitude loading but also can capture the load-sequence effect under variable and random amplitude loading. The ANL developed approach is one of its kind, which shows first in the fatigue research community that fatigue evaluation of a component (in our case verified for laboratory scale fatigue test specimens with great accuracy) can be performed for its entire fatigue life, including the hardening and softening behavior, without using a conventional S~N curve based approach. Additionally results are presented related to fatigue evaluation of real reactor components such as of a pressurized water reactor (PWR) surge line (SL), under upset transient conditions. SLs of PWR experience complex thermal stratification due to the mixing of differential temperature flow from hot leg and pressurizer. A detailed parametric study of thermal stratification in SL is performed through both standalone computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis and fluid-structure-interaction based coupled CFD and heat transfer analysis. Results show that the mass flow rate in SL substantially affects the extent of its thermal stratification. The resulting thermal boundaries conditioned are used as inputs for thermal-mechanical stress analysis and component level fatigue evaluation. Fatigue evaluation of SL pipe under example loading conditions was performed using the above-mentioned evolutionary-plasticity based approach and ASME code (for in-air life) and NUREG-6909 (for PWR environment life) based approaches. Results show that the evolutionary plasticity based approach estimate substantially different life compared to the conventional ASME based approach. To show the entirety of the proposed evolutionary fatigue-modeling framework, this report includes the results presented in semi-annual March report (ANL/LWRS-17/01). Sections 2-5 of March report are directly included as Sections 2-5 in this report, without any significant changes. However, Sections 6-9 of this report present the work performed during March-September of 2017. Whereas, Sections 1 and 10 present the organization of this report and the summary and future work, respectively. This report (ANL/LWRS-17/03 Rev. 1) is a slightly revised version of the earlier published report (ANL/LWRS-17/03). In this revised version, some of the results and associated discussion have been corrected/updated.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Arctic Tipping Points Triggering Global Change (LDRD Final Report)

The Arctic is warming and feedbacks in the coupled Earth system may be driving the Arctic to tipping events that could have critical downstream impacts for the rest of the globe. In this project we have focused on analyzing sea ice variability and loss in the coupled Earth system Summer sea ice loss is happening rapidly and although the loss may be smooth and reversible, it has significant consequences for other Arctic systems as well as geopolitical and economic implications. Accurate seasonal predictions of sea ice minimum extent and long-term estimates of timing for a seasonally ice-free Arctic depend on a better understanding of the factors influencing sea ice dynamics and variation in this strongly coupled system. Under this project we have investigated the most influential factors in accurate predictions of September Arctic sea ice extent using machine learning models trained separately on observational data and on simulation data from five E3SM historical ensembles. Monthly averaged data from June, July, and August for a selection of ice, ocean, and atmosphere variables were used to train a random forest regression model. Gini importance measures were computed for each input feature with the testing data. We found that sea ice volume is most important earlier in the season (June) and sea ice extent became a more important predictor closer to September. Results from this study provide insight into how feature importance changes with forecast length and illustrates differences between observational data and simulated Earth system data. We have additionally performed a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using a fully coupled ultra- low resolution configuration E3SM. To our knowledge, this is the first global sensitivity analysis involving the fully-coupled E3SM Earth system model. We have found that parameter variations show significant impact on the Arctic climate state and atmospheric parameters related to cloud parameterizations are the most significant. We also find significant interactions between parameters from different components of E3SM. The results of this study provide invaluable insight into the relative importance of various parameters from the sea ice, atmosphere and ocean components of the E3SM (including cross-component parameter interactions) on various Arctic-focused quantities of interest (QOIs).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Random Walks and Sticky Surfaces: Single-Molecule Measurements of Solute Diffusion in Ethanol/Water-Filled Anodic Alumina Nanopores

Nanoporous anodic aluminum oxide (AAO) membranes are now being explored for use in advanced chemical separations, including in the dehydration of biofuels such as ethanol. Optimization of membrane performance requires an in-depth understanding of how solvent mixtures and solutes behave under nanoconfinement. In this work, the diffusion of rhodamine B (RhB) dye through 10 nm and 20 nm AAO nanopores filled with a series of ethanol/water mixtures (0 - 33% water) is explored by fluorescence correlation spectroscopy (FCS). RhB was found to diffuse through the pores by two distinct mechanisms with mean diffusion coefficients, $D_f$ and $D_s$, reflecting fast and slow diffusive motions, respectively, with values that differ by nearly two orders of magnitude. Further, both $D_f$ and $D_s$ increased with pore size and were significantly smaller than $D_b$, the RhB diffusion coefficient in bulk liquid. Mean $D_f$ values follow a composition-dependent trend that closely mimics the viscosity dependence of $D_b$. Additional slowing of fast RhB diffusion is attributed to both hydrodynamic drag and electrostatic interactions with the nanopore surface. The mean $D_s$ values exhibit a different trend with increasing water content, revealing an increase in $D_s$ and a decrease in the contributions of slow diffusion to the observed dynamics. The fluorescence time transient data used in the analysis show that the slow diffusion process is strongly hindered and likely involves frequent adsorption of RhB to the pore surfaces. These results provide new insights into the detailed molecular-level mechanisms of mass transport in nanoporous AAO membranes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Alaskan boreal forest landcover affected by climate-wildfire interactions from ground truth surveys and NASA airborne remote sensing

Alaska’s boreal forest is facing unprecedented challenges under rapid climate warming (increasingly severe fires, droughts, pest/disease outbreaks) that may destabilize its function as a global carbon sink. Forests near Fairbanks may be especially vulnerable, impacting air quality and ecosystem services. We combined GT (ground truthing) with Airborne Visible InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS-NG) images collected by the NASA Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) program (2017-2019) to assess landcover change at five recently burned sites (2001-2019) of different fire severities and moisture regimes within 30 miles of Fairbanks. GT included tree seedling counts, understory % cover and >50% leaf canopy color assessment. 36 circular plots (1/30 ha radius) including 6 moderate to severely burned plots were selected across sites. 31 additional sites including 12 burned sites were geotagged in photos. AVIRIS images were processed from 29 spectral bands selected to identify changes in chlorophyll and water content. Images were segmented into natural boundaries (polygons) using ENVI 5.5 software. A spectral library of 8 AVIRIS bands with high between-class/low within-class variation was used in two random forest models to predict vegetation classes (model 1: 12 classes, model 2: 14 classes) in each AVIRIS scene, using 20% of the data as training data. Model 2 classified 20% more polygons overall, but only 42% of GT/geotagged polygons were correctly classified by both models. More forest sites were correctly classified (63%) than open vegetation (32%) or post-fire sites (46%). 50% of aspen forest and post-fire polygons were misclassified as shrubland. GT revealed that post-fire plots supported 134,000 (± 48,000) tree seedlings and saplings ha-1 (0.2 - 4 m height, 64% deciduous) versus 2500 (± 2100) shrubs ha-1 (1-6 m height). > 50% canopy browning was observed in conifer forest (8 plots) with no signs of insect infestation. Canopy herbivory > 50% (leaf miner, leaf beetle) and moose herbivory of tree bark was seen across aspen sites. Our study suggests: 1) low canopy vegetation presents challenges for improved landcover classification, and 2) aspen forest should be differentiated in vegetation maps which would aid in tracking herbivory.

Alaska↗
DOE OSTI2020

Correlations between conduction electrons in dense plasmas

Most treatments of electron-electron correlations in dense plasmas either ignore them entirely (random phase approximation) or neglect the role of ions (jellium approximation). In this work, we go beyond both these approximations to derive a formula for the electron-electron static structure factor which properly accounts for the contributions of both ionic structure and quantum-mechanical dynamic response in the electrons. The result can be viewed as a natural extension of the quantum Ornstein-Zernike theory of ionic and electronic correlations, and it is suitable for dense plasmas in which the ions are classical and the conduction electrons are quantum-mechanical. Here, the corresponding electron-electron pair distribution functions are compared with the results of path integral Monte Carlo simulations, showing good agreement whenever no strong electron resonance states are present. We construct approximate potentials of mean force which describe the effective screened interaction between electrons. Significant deviations from Debye-Hückel screening are present at temperatures and densities relevant to high-energy density experiments involving warm and hot dense plasmas. The presence of correlations between conduction electrons is likely to influence the electron-electron contribution to the electrical and thermal conductivity. It is expected that excitation processes involving the conduction electrons (e.g., free-free absorption) will also be affected.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2016

Development of a Prototype Model-Form Uncertainty Knowledge Base

Uncertainties are generally classified as either aleatory or epistemic. Aleatory uncertainties are those attributed to random variation, either naturally or through manufacturing processes. Epistemic uncertainties are generally attributed to a lack of knowledge. One type of epistemic uncertainty is called model-form uncertainty. The term model-form means that among the choices to be made during a design process within an analysis, there are different forms of the analysis process, which each give different results for the same configuration at the same flight conditions. Examples of model-form uncertainties include the grid density, grid type, and solver type used within a computational fluid dynamics code, or the choice of the number and type of model elements within a structures analysis. The objectives of this work are to identify and quantify a representative set of model-form uncertainties and to make this information available to designers through an interactive knowledge base (KB). The KB can then be used during probabilistic design sessions, so as to enable the possible reduction of uncertainties in the design process through resource investment. An extensive literature search has been conducted to identify and quantify typical model-form uncertainties present within aerospace design. An initial attempt has been made to assemble the results of this literature search into a searchable KB, usable in real time during probabilistic design sessions. A concept of operations and the basic structure of a model-form uncertainty KB are described. Key operations within the KB are illustrated. Current limitations in the KB, and possible workarounds are explained.

Green, Lawrence L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Decayheatml

This code is designed to predict and analyze the decay heat generated in molten salt reactors (MSRs) using a hybrid approach that combines machine learning and segmented polynomial fitting. The accurate prediction of decay heat is essential for reactor safety and the optimization of spent fuel storage. The code operates through several key components: 1) Data Architecture: It incorporates a modular data architecture that handles various MSR-specific operational parameters such as power density, humidity content, and air ingress. These parameters are sampled using Sobol sequences to ensure comprehensive coverage of operational uncertainties. 2) Machine Learning Framework: The code employs a diverse set of machine learning models, including polynomial regression, decision trees, random forests, gradient boosting, support vector regression, k-nearest neighbors, multi-layer perceptrons, and symbolic regression. These models are trained to predict decay heat over a wide temporal range, from immediate shutdown up to 10,000 years. 3) Region-Optimized Training: The temporal domain is divided into multiple regions, each modeled separately to capture distinct decay heat characteristics across different time scales. This approach significantly improves the accuracy and interpretability of predictions. 4) Segmented Polynomial Interpretation (SPI): The SPI method translates machine learning predictions into piecewise polynomial equations. These equations are physically interpretable and can be directly integrated into existing engineering workflows and safety analyses. 5) Front-End Interfaces: The code includes both a Jupyter notebook interface for research development and a Streamlit web application for operational deployment. These interfaces allow users to interactively explore decay heat predictions, adjust operational parameters, and visualize results in real-time. 6) Applications: The framework supports various applications, including safety system validation and spent fuel container optimization. It enables real-time evaluation of worst-case decay heat scenarios, informing the design of passive safety systems and optimizing container designs for long-term storage. Overall, this code provides a robust, accurate, and user-friendly tool for predicting decay heat in MSRs, enhancing reactor safety, and optimizing spent fuel management.

Retamales, Mauricio Eduardo Tano [Idaho National L↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Projected Network Model of Online Disinformation Cascades

Within the past half-decade, it has become overwhelmingly clear that suppressing the spread of deliberate false and misleading information is of the utmost importance for protecting democratic institutions. Disinformation has been found to come from both foreign and domestic actors, but the effects from either can be disastrous. From the simple encouragement of unwarranted distrust to conspiracy theories promoting violence, the results of disinformation have put the functionality of American democracy under direct threat. Present scientific challenges posed by this problem include detecting disinformation, quantifying its potential impact, and preventing its amplification. We present a model on which we can experiment with possible strategies toward the third challenge: the prevention of amplification. This is a social contagion network model, which is decomposed into layers to represent physical, ''offline'', interactions as well as virtual interactions on a social media platform. Along with the topological modifications to the standard contagion model, we use state-transition rules designed specifically for disinformation, and distinguish between contagious and non-contagious infected nodes. We use this framework to explore the effect of grassroots social movements on the size of disinformation cascades by simulating these cascades in scenarios where a proportion of the agents remove themselves from the social platform. We also test the efficacy of strategies that could be implemented at the administrative level by the online platform to minimize such spread. These top-down strategies include banning agents who disseminate false information, or providing corrective information to individuals exposed to false information to decrease their probability of believing it. We find an abrupt transition to smaller cascades when a critical number of random agents are removed from the platform, as well as steady decreases in the size of cascades with increasingly more convincing corrective information. Finally, we compare simulated cascades on this framework with real cascades of disinformation recorded on Whatsapp surrounding the 2019 Indian election. We find a set of hyperparameter values that produces a distribution of cascades matching the scaling exponent of the distribution of actual cascades recorded in the dataset. We acknowledge the available future directions for improving the performance of the framework and validation methods, as well as ways to extend the model to capture additional features of social contagion.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2003

Use of an Ultrasonic/Sonic Driller/Corer to Obtain Sample Powder for CHEMIN, a Combined XRD/XRF Instrument

A miniature CHEMIN XRD/XRF (X-Ray Diffraction/X-Ray Fluourescence) instrument is currently being developed for definitive mineralogic analysis of soils and rocks on Mars. One of the technical issues that must be addressed in order to enable XRD analysis on an extraterrestrial body is how best to obtain a representative sample powder for analysis. For XRD powder diffraction analyses, it is beneficial to have a fine-grained sample to reduce preferred orientation effects and to provide a statistically significant number of crystallites to the X-ray beam. Although a 2-dimensional detector as used in the CHEMIN instrument will produce good results with poorly prepared powders, the quality of the data will improve if the sample is fine-grained and randomly oriented. An Ultrasonic/Sonic Driller/Corer (USDC) currently being developed at JPL is an effective mechanism of sampling rock to produce cores and powdered cuttings. It requires low axial load (< 5N) and thus offers significant advantages for operation from lightweight platforms and in low gravity environments. The USDC is lightweight (<0.5kg), and can be driven at low power (<5W) using duty cycling. It consists of an actuator with a piezoelectric stack, ultrasonic horn, free-mass, and drill bit. The stack is driven with a 20 kHz AC voltage at resonance. The strain generated by the piezoelectric is amplified by the horn by a factor of up to 10 times the displacement amplitude. The tip impacts the free-mass and drives it into the drill bit in a hammering action. The free-mass rebounds to interact with the horn tip leading to a cyclic rebound at frequencies in the range of 60-1000 Hz. It does not require lubricants, drilling fluid or bit sharpening and it has the potential to operate at high and low temperatures using a suitable choice of piezoelectric material. To assess whether the powder from an ultrasonic drill would be adequate for analyses by an XRD/XRF spectrometer such as CHEMIN, powders obtained from the JPL ultrasonic drill were analyzed and the results were compared to carefully prepared powders obtained using a laboratory bench scale Retsch mill.

Chipera, S. J.↗