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At least 1,027 records · Page 57

Error growth in operational ECMWF forecasts

A parameterization scheme used at the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting to model the average growth of the difference between forecasts on consecutive days was extended by including the effect of error growth on forecast model deficiencies. Error was defined as the difference between the forecast and analysis fields during the verification time. Systematic and random errors were considered separately in calculating the error variance for a 10 day operational forecast. A good fit was obtained with measured forecast errors and a satisfactory trend was achieved in the difference between forecasts. Fitting six parameters to forecast errors and differences that were performed separately for each wavenumber revealed that the error growth rate grew with wavenumber. The saturation error decreased with the total wavenumber and the limit of predictability, i.e., when error variance reaches 95 percent of saturation, decreased monotonically with the total wavenumber.

Kalnay, E.↗

Creation of current filaments in the solar corona

It has been suggested that the solar corona is heated by the dissipation of electric currents. The low value of the resistivity requires the magnetic field to have structure at very small length scales if this mechanism is to work. In this paper it is demonstrated that the coronal magnetic field acquires small-scale structure through the braiding produced by smooth, randomly phased, photospheric flows. The current density develops a filamentary structure and grows exponentially in time. Nonlinear processes in the ideal magnetohydrodynamic equations produce a cascade effect, in which the structure introduced by the flow at large length scales is transferred to smaller scales. If this process continues down to the resistive dissipation length scale, it would provide an effective mechanism for coronal heating.

Mikic, Z.↗

Accounting for crustal magnetization in models of the core magnetic field

The problem of determining the magnetic field originating in the earth's core in the presence of remanent and induced magnetization is considered. The effect of remanent magnetization in the crust on satellite measurements of the core magnetic field is investigated. The crust as a zero-mean stationary Gaussian random process is modelled using an idea proposed by Parker (1988). It is shown that the matrix of second-order statistics is proportional to the Gram matrix, which depends only on the inner-products of the appropriate Green's functions, and that at a typical satellite altitude of 400 km the data are correlated out to an angular separation of approximately 15 deg. Accurate and efficient means of calculating the matrix elements are given. It is shown that the variance of measurements of the radial component of a magnetic field due to the crust is expected to be approximately twice that in horizontal components.

Jackson, Andrew↗

Dynamical buoyancy of hydrodynamic eddies

The dynamical pressure reduction within a vortex tube produces both a tension along the tube and a general buoyancy, analogous to magnetic flux tubes. The dynamical buoyancy causes convective cells to rise at speeds comparable to the rms fluid velocity within the cell. Consequently, the convective cells in a stratified atmosphere are more active than indicated by the standard anelastic approximation. The coherent convective cells at each level actively crowd upward into the convective cells above, elbowing weaker cells out of the way and flattening themselves and others against the upper surface of the convective region. These effects can be seen in the recent SOUP observations of the solar granulation. Deeper in the convective zone the inhomogeneity of the buoyancy may explain the random character of the convective motions that turns up in recent numerical simulations.

Parker, E. N.↗

On the Propagation of Plane Acoustic Waves in a Duct With Flexible and Impedance Walls

This Technical Memorandum (TM) discusses the harmonic and random plane acoustic waves propagating from inside a duct to its surroundings. Various duct surfaces are considered, such as rigid, flexible, and impedance. In addition, the effects of a mean flow are studied when the duct alone is considered. Results show a significant reduction in overall sound pressure levels downstream of the impedance wall for both mean flow and no mean flow cases and for a narrow duct. When a wider duct is used, the overall sound pressure level (OSPL) reduction downstream of the impedance wall is much smaller. In the far field, the directivity is such that the overall sound pressure level is reduced by about 5 decibels (dB) on the side of the impedance wall. When a flexible surface is used, the far field directivity becomes asymmetric with an increase in the OSPL on the side of the flexible surface of about 7 dB.

Frendi, Abdelkader↗

Why Is Rainfall Error Analysis Requisite for Data Assimilation and Climate Modeling?

Given the large temporal and spatial variability of precipitation processes, errors in rainfall observations are difficult to quantify yet crucial to making effective use of rainfall data for improving atmospheric analysis, weather forecasting, and climate modeling. We highlight the need for developing a quantitative understanding of systematic and random errors in precipitation observations by examining explicit examples of how each type of errors can affect forecasts and analyses in global data assimilation. We characterize the error information needed from the precipitation measurement community and how it may be used to improve data usage within the general framework of analysis techniques, as well as accuracy requirements from the perspective of climate modeling and global data assimilation.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Radiation exposure for human Mars exploration

One major obstacle to human space exploration is the possible limitations imposed by the adverse effects of long-term exposure to the space environment. Even before human space flight began, the potentially brief exposure of astronauts to the very intense random solar energetic particle events was of great concern. A new challenge appears in deep-space exploration from exposure to the low-intensity heavy-ion flux of the galactic cosmic rays since the missions are of long duration, and accumulated exposures can be high. Because cancer induction rates increase behind low to moderate thicknesses of aluminum shielding, according to available biological data on mammalian exposures to galactic cosmic ray-like ions, aluminum shield requirements for a Mars mission may be prohibitively expensive in terms of mission launch costs. Alternative materials for vehicle construction are under investigation to provide lightweight habitat structures with enhanced shielding properties. In the present paper, updated estimates for astronaut exposures on a Mars mission are presented and shielding properties of alternative materials are compared with aluminum.

NASA Center LaRC↗

Redistribution of pulmonary blood flow during unilateral hypoxia in prone and supine dogs

We used fluorescent-labeled microspheres in pentobarbital-anesthetized dogs to study the effects of unilateral alveolar hypoxia on the pulmonary blood flow distribution. The left lung was ventilated with inspired O2 fraction of 1.0, 0.09, or 0.03 in random order; the right lung was ventilated with inspired O2 fraction of 1.0. The lungs were removed, cleared of blood, dried at total lung capacity, then cubed to obtain approximately 1,500 small pieces of lung ( approximately 1.7 cm3). The coefficient of variation of flow increased (P < 0.001) in the hypoxic lung but was unchanged in the hyperoxic lung. Most (70-80%) variance in flow in the hyperoxic lung was attributable to structure, in contrast to only 30-40% of the variance in flow in the hypoxic lung (P < 0.001). When adjusted for the change in total flow to each lung, 90-95% of the variance in the hyperoxic lung was attributable to structure compared with 70-80% in the hypoxic lung (P < 0.001). The hilar-to-peripheral gradient, adjusted for change in total flow, decreased in the hypoxic lung (P = 0.005) but did not change in the hyperoxic lung. We conclude that hypoxic vasoconstriction alters the regional distribution of flow in the hypoxic, but not in the hyperoxic, lung.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

Application of local Lyapunov exponents to maneuver design and navigation in the three-body problem

Dynamical systems theory has recently been employed to design trajectories within the three-body problem for several missions. This research has applied one stability technique, the calculation of local Lyapunov exponents, to such trajectories. Local Lyapunov exponents give an indication of the effects that perturbations or maneuvers will have on trajectories over a specified time. A numerical comparison of local Lyapunov exponents was first made with the distance random perturbations traveled from a nominal trajectory, and the local Lyapunov exponents were found to correspond well with the perturbations that caused the greatest deviation from the nominal. This would allow them to be used as an indicator of the points where it would be important to reduce navigation uncertainties.

dynamical systems theory↗

NASA Radiation Track Image GUI for Assessing Space Radiation Biological Effects

The high-charge high-energy (HZE) ion components of the galactic cosmic rays when compared to terrestrial forms of radiations present unique challenges to biological systems. In this paper we present a deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) breakage model to visualize and analyze the impact of chromatin domains and DNA loops on clustering of DNA damage from X rays, protons, and HZE ions. Our model of DNA breakage is based on a stochastic process of DNA double-strand break (DSB) formulation that includes the amorphous model of the radiation track and a polymer model of DNA packed in the cell nucleus. Our model is a Monte-Carlo simulation based on a randomly located DSB cluster formulation that accomodates both high- and low-linear energy transfer radiations. We demonstrate that HZE ions have a strong impact on DSB clustering, both along the chromosome length and in the nucleus volume. The effects of chromosomal domains and DNA loops on the DSB fragment-size distribution and the spatial distribution of DSB in the nucleus were studied. We compare our model predictions with the spatial distribution of DSB obtained from experiments. The implications of our model predictions for radiation protection are discussed.

Ponomarev, Artem L.↗

Do no harm--normal tissue effects

Radiation therapy confers enormous benefits that must be balanced against the possibilities for harm including late toxicity in normal tissues and radiation-induced second malignancies. A small percentage of patients experience severe late complications. The question is, do these late sequelae occur randomly, or are they confined to individuals who are genetically predisposed to radiosensitivity. Experiments with knockout mice and with patients demonstrate that individuals heterozygous for a number of genes appear to be radiosensitive. If radiosensitive patients were identified prospectively by genetic analysis, they could be spared the trauma of late sequelae. Several large studies have shown a statistically significant excess of radiation-induced malignancies in radiotherapy patients. Most second cancers are carcinomas, developing in the lining cells of the body often remote from the treatment site. Radiation-induced sarcomas appear only in the heavily irradiated areas. These are small in number but appear with a very high relative risk.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

Effects of uncertainty on manual tracking performance

Transient phenomena and target acquisition modes associated with interrupted observations during ground-to-air AA tracking were investigated. Using a two-axes control stick, the subjects tracked a computer-generated airplane image on a CRT display. The airplane image excuted a low-level straight pass. At certain pseudo-random times during each 25-second run, the screen was blanked for a period of one second. When the target image reappeared, the subjects reacquired it and continued tracking, attempting to minimize vector RMS error for the entire run (including the blanked period). The results reveal an increase both in tracking error and in error variance during the blanked period, only when the target disappears while in the crossover region. Blanking at other times effected increased variance but had no effect on the mean error. A blanking period just before crossover produced an increase lag while a blanking just after crossover resulted in a lead and thus made the error curve more symmetric.

Ephrath, A. R.↗

Modulation of ring-laser mode coupling.

This paper develops an analytical, algebraic formalism that predicts effects induced in ring lasers by phase modulation, corresponding both to mode-decoupling mechanisms deliberately incorporated in the ring laser and to naturally occurring periodic or random angular or linear accelerations. The analysis is based on an approach that seems potentially convenient in the analysis of other systems that are physically stable but mathematically nonlinear.

Whitney, C.↗

Dissipative, forced turbulence in two-dimensional magnetohydrodynamics

The equations of motion for turbulent two-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic flows are solved in the presence of finite viscosity and resistivity, for the case in which external forces (mechanical and/or magnetic) act on the fluid. The goal is to verify the existence of a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo effect which is represented mathematically by a substantial back-transfer of mean square vector potential to the longest allowed Fourier wavelengths. External forces consisting of a random part plus a fraction of the value at the previous time step are employed, after the manner of Lilly for the Navier-Stokes case. The regime explored is that for which the mechanical and magnetic Reynolds numbers are in the region of 100 to 1000. The conclusions are that mechanical forcing terms alone cannot lead to dynamo action, but that dynamo action can result from either magnetic forcing terms or from both mechanical and magnetic forcing terms simultaneously.

Fyfe, D.↗

A comparative study of Conroy and Monte Carlo methods applied to multiple quadratures and multiple scattering

An efficient numerical method of multiple quadratures, the Conroy method, is applied to the problem of computing multiple scattering contributions in the radiative transfer through realistic planetary atmospheres. A brief error analysis of the method is given and comparisons are drawn with the more familiar Monte Carlo method. Both methods are stochastic problem-solving models of a physical or mathematical process and utilize the sampling scheme for points distributed over a definite region. In the Monte Carlo scheme the sample points are distributed randomly over the integration region. In the Conroy method, the sample points are distributed systematically, such that the point distribution forms a unique, closed, symmetrical pattern which effectively fills the region of the multidimensional integration. The methods are illustrated by two simple examples: one, of multidimensional integration involving two independent variables, and the other, of computing the second order scattering contribution to the sky radiance.

Deepak, A.↗

Acoustoelasticity - Review and extension

Research on the interaction between the sound pressure field and the flexible wall of an enclosure is reviewed. The topics discussed include: a mathematical model, simplified solutions for sinusoidal excitation, damping, random excitation, numerical results, including comparisons with representative experimental data, and design analysis methodology. Results of various authors using finite element techniques and modal analysis suggest that effective analytical models are available.

Dowell, E. H.↗

Investigation of air transportation technology at Ohio University, 1982

Refinement of the Loran-C receiver system for general aviation use was described. The capability to provide area navigation sometimes called random navigation (RNAV) was accomplished by providing new software. Microcomputers were used to accomplish the calculations which were performed in flight to demonstrate these devices are cost effective in the implementation of Loran-C navigational information.

Mcfarland, R. H.↗