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Risk management for the Space Exploration Initiative

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a quantitative engineering process that provides the analytic structure and decision-making framework for total programmatic risk management. Ideally, it is initiated in the conceptual design phase and used throughout the program life cycle. Although PRA was developed for assessment of safety, reliability, and availability risk, it has far greater application. Throughout the design phase, PRA can guide trade-off studies among system performance, safety, reliability, cost, and schedule. These studies are based on the assessment of the risk of meeting each parameter goal, with full consideration of the uncertainties. Quantitative trade-off studies are essential, but without full identification, propagation, and display of uncertainties, poor decisions may result. PRA also can focus attention on risk drivers in situations where risk is too high. For example, if safety risk is unacceptable, the PRA prioritizes the risk contributors to guide the use of resources for risk mitigation. PRA is used in the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) Program. To meet the stringent requirements of the SEI mission, within strict budgetary constraints, the PRA structure supports informed and traceable decision-making. This paper briefly describes the SEI PRA process.

Buchbinder, Ben↗

TADS: A CFD-based turbomachinery and analysis design system with GUI. Volume 2: User's manual

The primary objective of this study was the development of a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based turbomachinery airfoil analysis and design system, controlled by a graphical user interface (GUI). The computer codes resulting from this effort are referred to as the Turbomachinery Analysis and Design System (TADS). This document is intended to serve as a user's manual for the computer programs which comprise the TADS system. TADS couples a throughflow solver (ADPAC) with a quasi-3D blade-to-blade solver (RVCQ3D) in an interactive package. Throughflow analysis capability was developed in ADPAC through the addition of blade force and blockage terms to the governing equations. A GUI was developed to simplify user input and automate the many tasks required to perform turbomachinery analysis and design. The coupling of various programs was done in a way that alternative solvers or grid generators could be easily incorporated into the TADS framework.

Myers, R. A.↗

TADS: A CFD-based turbomachinery and analysis design system with GUI. Volume 1: Method and results

The primary objective of this study was the development of a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based turbomachinery airfoil analysis and design system, controlled by a graphical user interface (GUI). The computer codes resulting from this effort are referred to as the Turbomachinery Analysis and Design System (TADS). This document describes the theoretical basis and analytical results from the TADS system. TADS couples a throughflow solver (ADPAC) with a quasi-3D blade-to-blade solver (RVCQ3D) in an interactive package. Throughflow analysis capability was developed in ADPAC through the addition of blade force and blockage terms to the governing equations. A GUI was developed to simplify user input and automate the many tasks required to perform turbomachinery analysis and design. The coupling of various programs was done in a way that alternative solvers or grid generators could be easily incorporated into the TADS framework. Results of aerodynamic calculations using the TADS system are presented for a highly loaded fan, a compressor stator, a low-speed turbine blade, and a transonic turbine vane.

Topp, D. A.↗

Concept of Operations for the NASA Weather Accident Prevention (WxAP) Project

The Weather Accident Prevention Concept of Operations (CONOPS) serves as a decision-making framework for research and technology development planning. It is intended for use by the WxAP members and other related programs in NASA and the FAA that support aircraft accident reduction initiatives. The concept outlines the project overview for program level 3 elements-such as AWIN, WINCOMM, and TPAWS (Turbulence)-that develop the technologies and operating capabilities to form the building blocks for WxAP. Those building blocks include both retrofit of equipment and systems and development of new aircraft, training technologies, and operating infrastructure systems and capabilities. This Concept of operations document provides the basis for the WxAP project to develop requirements based on the operational needs ofthe system users. It provides the scenarios that the flight crews, airline operations centers (AOCs), air traffic control (ATC), and flight service stations (FSS) utilize to reduce weather related accidents. The provision to the flight crew of timely weather information provides awareness of weather situations that allows replanning to avoid weather hazards. The ability of the flight crew to locate and avoid weather hazards, such as turbulence and hail, contributes to safer flight practices.

Green, Walter S.↗

Integrating Formal Methods and Testing 2002

Traditionally, qualitative program verification methodologies and program testing are studied in separate research communities. None of them alone is powerful and practical enough to provide sufficient confidence in ultra-high reliability assessment when used exclusively. Significant advances can be made by accounting not only tho formal verification and program testing. but also the impact of many other standard V&V techniques, in a unified software reliability assessment framework. The first year of this research resulted in the statistical framework that, given the assumptions on the success of the qualitative V&V and QA procedures, significantly reduces the amount of testing needed to confidently assess reliability at so-called high and ultra-high levels (10-4 or higher). The coming years shall address the methodologies to realistically estimate the impacts of various V&V techniques to system reliability and include the impact of operational risk to reliability assessment. Combine formal correctness verification, process and product metrics, and other standard qualitative software assurance methods with statistical testing with the aim of gaining higher confidence in software reliability assessment for high-assurance applications. B) Quantify the impact of these methods on software reliability. C) Demonstrate that accounting for the effectiveness of these methods reduces the number of tests needed to attain certain confidence level. D) Quantify and justify the reliability estimate for systems developed using various methods.

Cukic, Bojan↗

A Proven Ground System Architecture for Promoting Collaboration and Common Solutions at NASA

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's "GMSEC" ground system architecture was presented at GSAW2003 as a concept being studied. GMSEC would utilize a publish/subscribe middleware framework and standardized interfaces to allow custom and COTS ground system components to plug-and-play. This capability, in turn, would reduce integration costs, allow for technology infusion over time, and encourage the development and sharing of common components across missions and organizations. At GSAW2004, GMSEC was presented at a breakout session as a system working well in the NASA lab and being applied as an integral piece of reengineering efforts for several GSFC missions. Today, GMSEC is supporting five satellites at GSFC and has been selected by several future missions. Over 30 plug-and-play components are now available to missions using the GMSEC approach. Other organizations, including Marshall Space Flight Center, Johns Hopkins University's Applied Physic Lab, and the Institute for Scientific Research are each developing GMSEC-compatible components. Based on the success of GMSEC and efforts at other NASA Centers, the message bus approach is now being evaluated as a NASA Agency-wide approach for many future missions involving multiple NASA Centers as we move towards the goals of NASA s new Exploration Initiative. The presentation will explain the basic technical concepts of using a publish/subscribe framework for mission operations support (and its applicability to flight systems as well). Lessons learned on NASA's GMSEC program will allow the audience to better understand the significant benefits of this architecture approach over the traditional "one-off" solution approach. The point of the presentation is to show the long-term benefits of using a ground system architecture which incorporates many of the successful GMSEC concepts - message bus, mix of COTS and custom software, standard interfaces, plug-and-play, etc. The implications for the development process will also be discussed.

Smith, Danford↗

An Approach for Autonomy: A Collaborative Communication Framework for Multi-Agent Systems

Research done during the last three years has studied the emersion properties of Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS). The deployment of Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques applied to remote Unmanned Aerial Vehicles has led the author to investigate applications of CAS within the field of Autonomous Multi-Agent Systems. The core objective of current research efforts is focused on the simplicity of Intelligent Agents (IA) and the modeling of these agents within complex systems. This research effort looks at the communication, interaction, and adaptability of multi-agents as applied to complex systems control. The embodiment concept applied to robotics has application possibilities within multi-agent frameworks. A new framework for agent awareness within a virtual 3D world concept is possible where the vehicle is composed of collaborative agents. This approach has many possibilities for applications to complex systems. This paper describes the development of an approach to apply this virtual framework to the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) tetrahedron structure developed under the Autonomous Nano Technology Swarm (ANTS) program and the Super Miniaturized Addressable Reconfigurable Technology (SMART) architecture program. These projects represent an innovative set of novel concepts deploying adaptable, self-organizing structures composed of many tetrahedrons. This technology is pushing current applied Agents Concepts to new levels of requirements and adaptability.

Dufrene, Warren Russell, Jr.↗

Ares I-X Range Safety Analyses Overview

Ares I-X was the first test flight of NASA's Constellation Program's Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle designed to provide manned access to low Earth orbit. As a one-time test flight, the Air Force's 45th Space Wing required a series of Range Safety analysis data products to be developed for the specified launch date and mission trajectory prior to granting flight approval on the Eastern Range. The range safety data package is required to ensure that the public, launch area, and launch complex personnel and resources are provided with an acceptable level of safety and that all aspects of prelaunch and launch operations adhere to applicable public laws. The analysis data products, defined in the Air Force Space Command Manual 91-710, Volume 2, consisted of a nominal trajectory, three sigma trajectory envelopes, stage impact footprints, acoustic intensity contours, trajectory turn angles resulting from potential vehicle malfunctions (including flight software failures), characterization of potential debris, and debris impact footprints. These data products were developed under the auspices of the Constellation's Program Launch Constellation Range Safety Panel and its Range Safety Trajectory Working Group with the intent of beginning the framework for the operational vehicle data products and providing programmatic review and oversight. A multi-center NASA team in conjunction with the 45th Space Wing, collaborated within the Trajectory Working Group forum to define the data product development processes, performed the analyses necessary to generate the data products, and performed independent verification and validation of the data products. This paper outlines the Range Safety data requirements and provides an overview of the processes established to develop both the data products and the individual analyses used to develop the data products, and it summarizes the results of the analyses required for the Ares I-X launch.

Starr, Brett R.↗

Ares I-X Range Safety Flight Envelope Analysis

Ares I-X was the first test flight of NASA's Constellation Program's Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle designed to provide manned access to low Earth orbit. As a one-time test flight, the Air Force's 45th Space Wing required a series of Range Safety analysis data products to be developed for the specified launch date and mission trajectory prior to granting flight approval on the Eastern Range. The range safety data package is required to ensure that the public, launch area, and launch complex personnel and resources are provided with an acceptable level of safety and that all aspects of prelaunch and launch operations adhere to applicable public laws. The analysis data products, defined in the Air Force Space Command Manual 91-710, Volume 2, consisted of a nominal trajectory, three sigma trajectory envelopes, stage impact footprints, acoustic intensity contours, trajectory turn angles resulting from potential vehicle malfunctions (including flight software failures), characterization of potential debris, and debris impact footprints. These data products were developed under the auspices of the Constellation's Program Launch Constellation Range Safety Panel and its Range Safety Trajectory Working Group with the intent of beginning the framework for the operational vehicle data products and providing programmatic review and oversight. A multi-center NASA team in conjunction with the 45th Space Wing, collaborated within the Trajectory Working Group forum to define the data product development processes, performed the analyses necessary to generate the data products, and performed independent verification and validation of the data products. This paper outlines the Range Safety data requirements and provides an overview of the processes established to develop both the data products and the individual analyses used to develop the data products, and it summarizes the results of the analyses required for the Ares I-X launch.

Starr, Brett R.↗

PolarMERRA: A Polar-Focused Global Reanalysis Project for Scientific and Stakeholder Needs

The adequate modeling of physical processes in the Arctic and Antarctic is vital for developing prediction capabilities and for obtaining an understanding of rapidly evolving polar conditions, including their potential global impacts. These processes are often poorly represented in global models and reanalyses, owing to a legacy modeling focus on midlatitude processes, as well as a scarcity of observations needed for model development in polar regions. The polarMERRA initiative, a joint effort between NASA’s Cryospheric Sciences and Modeling and Prediction programs, seeks to improve the representation of cryospheric and polar atmospheric processes and to develop an open-source framework for a quantitively evaluation of polar-relevant variables against current and future satellite and in-situ observations, models, and reanalyses. Here, we evaluate the impacts of spatial resolution and modifications to sea ice, ice sheet, and atmospheric parameterizations on the representation of high latitude conditions by using a quantitative scorecard approach that leverages NASA’s extensive satellite record. Investigations are conducted using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model (GEOS) and its data assimilation system (GEOS DAS). Through a quantitative identification of process deficiencies, bias reductions in key surface variables, including temperature and precipitation over cryospheric surfaces, may be achieved. The polarMERRA project additionally seeks to identify additional data sources for use in the GEOS DAS, and to incorporate data and parameterization improvements into future model and reanalysis products for scientific and stakeholder use.

Lauren C Andrews↗

ETM: Upper Class E Traffic Management

This is a slide set as part of a meeting series with members of a working group aimed at the development of a concept that addresses needs and gaps in the management of high-altitude airspace operations. This concept leverages elements developed through the UAS Traffic Management project with respect to a cooperative, service-based approach that provides services and capabilities in areas (e.g., Upper Class E airspace) that currently receive no or limited service from Air Traffic Control. This concept is meant to provide a safe, fair, and scalable approach to management of Upper Class E operations that reduces the burden on ATC while providing the flexibility and access desired by current and new users of the airspace. This set of slides includes an overview of discussions and industry news covering the time since the previous group meeting, an overview of relevant activities by NASA's Airborne Science Program, a review of the 2023 ETM Workshop, a placeholder for a presentation on an approach to an International Framework for operations, and an update on NASA's preparations for upcoming simulations.

Upper E↗

Fusion Energy Research at Idaho National Laboratory: Experimentation and Simulation to Support Safety and Rapid Technology Development

Research into fusion energy is growing rapidly, responding to a call for sustainable sources of energy to replace fossil fuels and mitigate climate change. Within the United States, at least, researchers are also responding to the “Bold Decadal Vision” proposed by the White House, seeking to have a commercially relevant fusion pilot plant deployed within a decade. Before this can become a reality, many Fusion Science & Technology (FS&T) gaps remain. For over 45 years, Idaho National Laboratory has been at the forefront of addressing these FS&T gaps in the context of fusion safety and technology via the operation of world-leading experimental facilities within the Safety and Tritium Applied Research (STAR) Facility. Here, INL focuses on the tritium fuel cycle, conceptual system design studies, risk assessment, waste management, and materials safety. Modeling and Simulation (M&S) has also been a component of this portfolio of research, but, early on, focused on individual systems. Since 2019, active development and research on integrated whole device modeling tools based on the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework has been undertaken. This has culminated in a MOOSE-based version of the Tritium Migration and Analysis Program (TMAP), an INL code historically focused on tritium permeation and trapping within fusion systems. More recently, INL Laboratory Directed Research and Development funds have been used to create the Fusion ENergy Integrated multiphys-X (FENIX) code focused on scrape-off layer plasma physics and the first wall of a magnetically confined fusion device. This talk will focus on an overview of INL activities in the FS&T research area, with a particular focus on recent M&S activities and results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

FENIX: An Open-Source Multiphysics Integrated Framework Enabling Collaborative Development of Plasma Facing Component Modeling Capabilities

Advanced modeling and simulation tools have a crucial role to play in accelerating fusion energy deployment as a sustainable power source. Multiphysics, high-fidelity computational tools can help understand, model, and quantify the complex interactions between materials performance, plasma and neutron exposure, and engineering processes. As a result, they accelerate the design, safety analysis, and performance evaluation of fusion systems. This webinar introduces the Fusion ENergy Integrated multiphys-X (FENIX) framework, an open-source multiphysics tool for plasma facing component modeling. FENIX leverages the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework, which has been developed by the United States Department of Energy Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. FENIX couples various MOOSE capabilities such as heat transfer, thermomechanics, thermal hydraulics, electromagnetics, and plasma kinetics with the MOOSE-based applications Cardinal (neutronics) and TMAP8 (tritium transport). During the webinar, we will present FENIX and discuss how its modularity, openness, software quality assurance processes, and licensing approach supports effective collaborations, including public-private partnerships.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Advancing the Standards for Unmanned Air System Communications, Navigation and Surveillance

Under NASA program NNA16BD84C, new architectures were identified and developed for supporting reliable and secure Communications, Navigation and Surveillance (CNS) needs for Unmanned Air Systems (UAS) operating in both controlled and uncontrolled airspace. An analysis of architectures for the two categories of airspace and an implementation technology readiness analysis were performed. These studies produced NASA reports that have been made available in the public domain and have been briefed in previous conferences. We now consider how the products of the study are influencing emerging directions in the aviation standards communities. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Communications Panel (CP), Working Group I (WG-I) is currently developing a communications network architecture known as the Aeronautical Telecommunications Network with Internet Protocol Services (ATN/IPS). The target use case for this service is secure and reliable Air Traffic Management (ATM) for manned aircraft operating in controlled airspace. However, the work is more and more also considering the emerging class of airspace users known as Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems (RPAS), which refers to certain UAS classes. In addition, two Special Committees (SCs) in the Radio Technical Commission for Aeronautics (RTCA) are developing Minimum Aviation System Performance Standards (MASPS) and Minimum Operational Performance Standards (MOPS) for UAS. RTCA SC-223 is investigating an Internet Protocol Suite (IPS) and AeroMACS aviation data link for interoperable (INTEROP) UAS communications. Meanwhile, RTCA SC-228 is working to develop Detect And Avoid (DAA) equipment and a Command and Control (C2) Data Link MOPS establishing LBand and C-Band solutions. These RTCA Special Committees along with ICAO CP WG/I are therefore overlapping in terms of the Communication, Navigation and Surveillance (CNS) alternatives they are seeking to provide for an integrated manned- and unmanned air traffic management service as well as remote pilot command and control. This paper presents UAS CNS architecture concepts developed under the NASA program that apply to all three of the aforementioned committees. It discusses the similarities and differences in the problem spaces under consideration in each committee, and considers the application of a common set of CNS alternatives that can be widely applied. As the works of these committees progress, it is clear that the overlap will need to be addressed to ensure a consistent and safe framework for worldwide aviation. In this study, we discuss similarities and differences in the various operational models and show how the CNS architectures developed under the NASA program apply.

Ponchak, Denise S.↗

XML Translator for Interface Descriptions

A computer program defines an XML schema for specifying the interface to a generic FPGA from the perspective of software that will interact with the device. This XML interface description is then translated into header files for C, Verilog, and VHDL. User interface definition input is checked via both the provided XML schema and the translator module to ensure consistency and accuracy. Currently, programming used on both sides of an interface is inconsistent. This makes it hard to find and fix errors. By using a common schema, both sides are forced to use the same structure by using the same framework and toolset. This makes for easy identification of problems, which leads to the ability to formulate a solution. The toolset contains constants that allow a programmer to use each register, and to access each field in the register. Once programming is complete, the translator is run as part of the make process, which ensures that whenever an interface is changed, all of the code that uses the header files describing it is recompiled.

Boroson, Elizabeth R.↗

Model-Based Framework to Optimize Charger Station Deployment for Battery Electric Vehicles

The development of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is accelerating due to their environmental advantages over gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles, including a decrease in air pollution and an increase in energy efficiency. The deployment of charging infrastructure will need to increase to keep pace with demand, especially for large commercial vehicles for which few public chargers currently exist. In this paper, a new flexible framework is proposed for optimizing the placement of charging stations for BEVs, within which different physical models and optimization techniques may be used. Furthermore, a set of metrics is suggested to help enforce complex constraints and facilitate direct comparison between different optimization techniques. Unlike many existing charger placement techniques, the proposed method directly considers the historical driving patterns on a vehicle-by-vehicle basis, using transparent models to assess impacts of candidate charger placements, thus improving the explainability of the results. In the developed framework, modeled BEVs are first generated along the road network to mimic historical traffic data and are simulated traveling along a given route according to a simplified vehicle model. During the simulation, the charger placement problem is initially relaxed to allow vehicles to charge at any node along the road network, and vehicle states are tracked to assess areas of high charging demand. Charging stations are then placed based on the results of the relaxed simulation, and suggested placements are evaluated via road network simulation with fixed charger locations. This proposed framework is applied to a sample problem of placing charging stations along five major highway corridors for Class 8 over-the-road electric trucks. A novel mixed integer programming (MIP) formulation is proposed to optimize charger placements based upon the expected charging demand. Constraints were imposed on the final placement results to limit expected wait times at each station and ensure a minimum threshold of trucking routes are viable for BEVs. The results demonstrate the flexibility and potential effectiveness of the developed model-based framework for scalable charger station deployment.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Performance of Muon Neutrino Reconstruction at ICARUS using SPINE Machine Learning.

ICARUS is a liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) neutrino experiment at Fermilab. Located ~600 m from the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) target, it serves as the far detector in the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Program. The primary objective of the SBN Program is to probe neutrino oscillation physics at short baselines using multiple detectors, including measurements of both muon neutrino disappearance and electron neutrino appearance. A key requirement for the neutrino oscillation measurements is robust event reconstruction, including accurate and precise particle identification (PID) and kinematic reconstruction across a wide range of topologies. To achieve the required performance, we employ the SPINE (“Scalable Particle Imaging with Neural Embeddings”) package, a state-of-the-art machine learning reconstruction framework. This talk presents the status of muon neutrino reconstruction using SPINE at ICARUS, including the evaluation of reconstruction performance that will enable the full physics program at ICARUS and at the SBN Program.

Totani, Dante [Colorado State U.] (ORCID:000000019↗

BioNet Digital Communications Framework

BioNet v2 is a peer-to-peer middleware that enables digital communication devices to talk to each other. It provides a software development framework, standardized application, network-transparent device integration services, a flexible messaging model, and network communications for distributed applications. BioNet is an implementation of the Constellation Program Command, Control, Communications and Information (C3I) Interoperability specification, given in CxP 70022-01. The system architecture provides the necessary infrastructure for the integration of heterogeneous wired and wireless sensing and control devices into a unified data system with a standardized application interface, providing plug-and-play operation for hardware and software systems. BioNet v2 features a naming schema for mobility and coarse-grained localization information, data normalization within a network-transparent device driver framework, enabling of network communications to non-IP devices, and fine-grained application control of data subscription band width usage. BioNet directly integrates Disruption Tolerant Networking (DTN) as a communications technology, enabling networked communications with assets that are only intermittently connected including orbiting relay satellites and planetary rover vehicles.

Gifford, Kevin↗