SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Prediction Accuracy”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,027 records · Page 57

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

Advancing 1D thermo-hydraulic tools for large cryogenic facilities

The Cryogenic Division at Fermilab develops large-scale cryogenic systems for particle accelerators and superconducting magnet test facilities. To support design and diagnostics, a Python-based code was created to calculate pressure drops in components such as valves and pipes. This paper presents recent enhancements to the code, including new heat transfer functions that improve the accuracy of thermal and hydraulic predictions. The first application models pressure and temperature changes in Proton Improvement Plant PIP-II relief pipes, aiding pipe sizing and protecting relief valves. The second example analyses heat load evolution in a pipe carrying sub-atmospheric helium, helping interpret temperature sensor data and understand gas return behavior to cold compressors. These improvements significantly expand the tool's capabilities, offering a practical resource for designing and troubleshooting cryogenic systems under dynamic thermal and flow conditions.

Beckwith, R. [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Facilitating Screening of MOFs for Mixed Matrix Membranes Using Machine Learning and the Maxwell Model

Metal organic framework (MOF)-based mixedmatrix membranes (MMMs), which embed MOF particles in polymer matrices, combine the advantages of polymeric and inorganic membranes. Multiple previous studies have used the Maxwell model together with molecular simulations and machine learning (ML) to predict the performance of MOF/polymer MMMs. However, the assumption of rigid MOF frameworks in molecular simulations limited the accuracy of the data used in the predictions, particularly in predicting molecular diffusivities. We developed a novel workflow integrating ML models with consideration of MOF flexibility to predict the permeability and selectivity of 131,722 MMMs for CO 2 /CH 4 , O 2 /N 2 and He/H 2 separations. The full range of achievable MMM performance within the Maxwell model was analyzed, and several promising MOFs were identified using this workflow. This approach offers an efficient tool for screening any polymer and MOF combination in gas separation applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Graph neural networks for mechanical property prediction of 2D fiber composites

This work investigates the ability of graph neural networks (GNNs) to homogenize 2D fiber composite microstructures. We use different inhomogeneity and anisotropy indices to motivate and show that the Volume Elements (VEs) used in ML methods should ideally be far from their Representative Volume Element (RVE) size limit and, consequently, are notably anisotropic. Hence, training only the isotropic limit properties may not be acceptable. Another aspect is the need to normalize elastic stiffness values for ML, especially when high elastic contrast ratios are encountered between composite phases or in the material set. We introduce a normalization technique based on the mean-field method (MFM) to handle such high contrast ratios and train for the entire stiffness tensor. We show that the proposed GNN approaches exhibit high accuracy and efficiency compared to traditional methods and convolutional neural networks, utilizing unstructured graphs constructed from microstructure topology. Our model successfully predicts the stiffness tensor, peak strength under bulk damage, and brittle fracture initiation strength across diverse microstructure configurations while maintaining high accuracy even for extreme material contrasts and volume fractions. We also present a method to improve prediction accuracy for small dataset sizes using Voronoi partitioning.

Brittle strength↗

DOE OSTI2020

Ex Machina Determination of Structural Correlation Functions

Determining the structural properties of condensed-phase systems is a fundamental problem in theoretical statistical mechanics. In this study, we present a machine learning method that is able to predict structural correlation functions with significantly improved accuracy in comparison with traditional approaches. The usefulness of this ex machina (from the machine) approach is illustrated by predicting the radial distribution functions of two paradigmatic condensed-phase systems, a Lennard-Jones fluid and a hard-sphere fluid, and then comparing those results to the results obtained using both integral equation methods and empirically motivated analytical functions. We find that application of the developed ex machina method typically decreases the predictive error by more than an order of magnitude in comparison with traditional theoretical methods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Discovery of widespread transcription initiation at microsatellites predictable by sequence-based deep neural network

Using the Cap Analysis of Gene Expression (CAGE) technology, the FANTOM5 consortium provided one of the most comprehensive maps of transcription start sites (TSSs) in several species. Strikingly, ~72% of them could not be assigned to a specific gene and initiate at unconventional regions, outside promoters or enhancers. Here, we probe these unassigned TSSs and show that, in all species studied, a significant fraction of CAGE peaks initiate at microsatellites, also called short tandem repeats (STRs). To confirm this transcription, we develop Cap Trap RNA-seq, a technology which combines cap trapping and long read MinION sequencing. We train sequence-based deep learning models able to predict CAGE signal at STRs with high accuracy. These models unveil the importance of STR surrounding sequences not only to distinguish STR classes, but also to predict the level of transcription initiation. Importantly, genetic variants linked to human diseases are preferentially found at STRs with high transcription initiation level, supporting the biological and clinical relevance of transcription initiation at STRs. Together, our results extend the repertoire of non-coding transcription associated with DNA tandem repeats and complexify STR polymorphism.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

First-principles molten salt phase diagrams through thermodynamic integration

Precise prediction of phase diagrams in molecular dynamics simulations is challenging due to the simultaneous need for long time and large length scales and accurate interatomic potentials. Here, we show that thermodynamic integration from low-cost force fields to neural network potentials trained using density-functional theory (DFT) enables rapid first-principles prediction of the solid–liquid phase boundary in the model salt NaCl. We use this technique to compare the accuracy of several DFT exchange–correlation functionals for predicting the NaCl phase boundary and find that the inclusion of dispersion interactions is critical to obtain good agreement with experiment. Importantly, our approach introduces a method to predict solid–liquid phase boundaries for any material at an ab initio level of accuracy, with the majority of the computational cost at the level of classical potentials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

A computational fluid dynamics model to estimate local quantities in firebrand char oxidation

Firebrand burning is a complex phenomenon that is influenced by several parameters which are difficult to fully explore experimentally. Computational fluid dynamics models capable of predicting local quantities are essential for accurate prediction of char oxidation in firebrands. This article presents a computational fluid dynamics model to estimate firebrand mass loss, diameter change, and surface temperature during char oxidation. The model was validated using previously conducted wind tunnel experiments. These experiments were conducted for firebrands of two different aspect ratios, which were arranged in three different configurations (single, horizontal array, and vertical array), and for four different wind speeds (0.5, 1, 1.5, and 2 m/s). The computational fluid dynamics results were compared with a previous 1 D model. In all the test cases, the computational fluid dynamics model predicted the physical phenomena with significantly improved accuracy compared to a 1 D model. The char oxidation model presented in this article can be coupled with other models to study firebrand generation and trajectory, biomass pyrolysis, fluidized bed reactors, and coal combustion.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2020

Short-wavelength-sensitive 2 (Sws2) visual photopigment models combined with atomistic molecular simulations to predict spectral peaks of absorbance

For many species, vision is one of the most important sensory modalities for mediating essential tasks that include navigation, predation and foraging, predator avoidance, and numerous social behaviors. The vertebrate visual process begins when photons of the light interact with rod and cone photoreceptors that are present in the neural retina. Vertebrate visual photopigments are housed within these photoreceptor cells and are sensitive to a wide range of wavelengths that peak within the light spectrum, the latter of which is a function of the type of chromophore used and how it interacts with specific amino acid residues found within the opsin protein sequence. Minor differences in the amino acid sequences of the opsins are known to lead to large differences in the spectral peak of absorbance (i.e. the λ max value). In our prior studies, we developed a new approach that combined homology modeling and molecular dynamics simulations to gather structural information associated with chromophore conformation, then used it to generate statistical models for the accurate prediction of λ max values for photopigments derived from Rh1 and Rh2 amino acid sequences. In the present study, we test our novel approach to predict the λ max of phylogenetically distant Sws2 cone opsins. To build a model that can predict the λ max using our approach presented in our prior studies, we selected a spectrally-diverse set of 11 teleost Sws2 photopigments for which both amino acid sequence information and experimentally measured λ max values are known. The final first-order regression model, consisting of three terms associated with chromophore conformation, was sufficient to predict the λ max of Sws2 photopigments with high accuracy. This study further highlights the breadth of our approach in reliably predicting λ max values of Sws2 cone photopigments, evolutionary-more distant from template bovine RH1, and provided mechanistic insights into the role of known spectral tuning sites.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Power Curve Working Group's assessment of wind turbine power performance prediction methods

Wind turbine power production deviates from the reference power curve in real-world atmospheric conditions. Correctly predicting turbine power performance requires models to be validated for a wide range of wind turbines using inflow in different locations. The Share-3 exercise is the most recent intelligence-sharing exercise of the Power Curve Working Group, which aims to advance the modeling of turbine performance. The goal of the exercise is to search for modeling methods that reduce error and uncertainty in power prediction when wind shear and turbulence digress from design conditions. Herein, we analyze data from 55 wind turbine power performance tests from nine contributing organizations with statistical tests to quantify the skills of the prediction-correction methods. We assess the accuracy and precision of four proposed trial methods against the baseline method, which uses the conventional definition of a power curve with wind speed and air density at hub height. The trial methods reduce power-production prediction errors compared to the baseline method at high wind speeds, which contribute heavily to power production; however, the trial methods fail to significantly reduce prediction uncertainty in most meteorological conditions. For the meteorological conditions when a wind turbine produces less than the power its reference power curve suggests, using power deviation matrices leads to more accurate power prediction. We also determine that for more than half of the submissions, the data set has a large influence on the effectiveness of a trial method. Overall, this work affirms the value of data-sharing efforts in advancing power curve modeling and establishes the groundwork for future collaborations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predictive Modeling of NOx Emissions from Lean Direct Injection of Hydrogen and Hydrogen/Natural Gas Blends Using Flame Imaging and Machine Learning

This research paper explores the use of machine learning to relate images of flame structure and luminosity to measured NOx emissions. Images of reactions produced by 16 aero-engine derived injectors for a ground-based turbine operated on a range of fuel compositions, air pressure drops, preheat temperatures and adiabatic flame temperatures were captured and postprocessed. The experimental investigations were conducted under atmospheric conditions, capturing CO, NO and NOx emissions data and OH* chemiluminescence images from 27 test conditions. The injector geometry and test conditions were based on a statistically designed test plan. These results were first analyzed using the traditional analysis approach of analysis of variance (ANOVA). The statistically based test plan yielded 432 data points, leading to a correlation for NOx emissions as a function of injector geometry, test conditions and imaging responses, with 70.2% accuracy. As an alternative approach to predicting emissions using imaging diagnostics as well as injector geometry and test conditions, a random forest machine learning algorithm was also applied to the data and was able to achieve an accuracy of 82.6%. This study offers insights into the factors influencing emissions in ground-based turbines while emphasizing the potential of machine learning algorithms in constructing predictive models for complex systems.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2020

M06-SX screened-exchange density functional for chemistry and solid-state physics

Significance Density functionals with Hartree–Fock exchange have been widely used for a wide range of chemical applications, but the nonlocal character of exchange makes long-range exchange computationally expensive for solid-state calculations with periodic boundary conditions, and full exchange is nonphysical for condensed-phase systems. Here, we present a screened-exchange (SX) density functional, M06-SX, that is especially designed to have good accuracy for both solid-state physics and chemical applications with less computational cost than full Hartree–Fock exchange. The M06-SX functional gives accuracy comparable to functionals with full Hartree–Fock exchange for predicting chemical properties of molecules, while also being practical with good accuracy for plane wave calculations on band gaps and lattice constants of solids.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Using Thermodynamic Availability to Predict the Transitional Film Reynolds Number between the Droplet and Jet Modes in Falling Liquid between Horizontal Tubes

The objective of this paper is to propose and validate a model for predicting the transitional film Reynolds number between the droplet and jet modes of falling film flows. The proposed model relies on thermodynamic availability with no fitting to mode transition data. The model directly predicts the numerical values of the transitional film Reynolds numbers at different operating conditions. The results of the model are validated against 43 experimental data points from the literature, which cover 10 working fluids and a wide range of tube geometries. The accuracy of the proposed model in predicting the validation data is -on average- more than 20 % better than that of the widely used Re = a (Ga) b and Re = a (Ga) b (S/ξ) c models. The model also achieves low computation time (less than 30 seconds for the 43 validation data points). The model presented in this paper has the potential of integration with heat transfer, mass transfer, and pressure drop models for optimizing the design and operation of falling film heat and mass exchangers.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Wind Plant Performance Prediction Benchmark Phase 1 (Technical Report)

Financial risk resulting from the uncertainty associated with developing, owning, and operating wind power plants remains a barrier to reducing the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). On average, modern wind power plants in the U.S. underperform their expected annual energy output by 3.5-4.5% , with many underperforming by over 10%. To compensate for this uncertainty, investors require a larger return on investment (ROI) and apply "knock-down" factors that mask much of the underlying sources of uncertainty. Wind energy projects thus have reduced access to low-cost capital. Furthermore, operating wind plants often take a simple approach to estimating operations & maintenance (O&M) costs (e.g. straight-line estimates based on similar plants), which can eat into profits. To overcome these issues, the wind industry must improve the models they use for estimating wind plant performance and operations. An industry consortium (IC) requested that the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) lead a Department of Energy (DOE) working group to benchmark the accuracy of wind power plant energy predictions against real operational data. The IC was also motivated by DOE and NREL's potential to characterize systematic energy underperformance, identify sources of uncertainty, and explore root causes. The Wind Plant Performance Prediction (WP3) project was created out of this request, and this report represents the successful completion of Phase 1 of the WP3 project. During the project, wind plant owners provided both pre-construction and operational data to NREL. The pre-construction data was provided to wind resource assessment (WRA) consultants so they could conduct energy yield assessments (EYA). NREL took all of the completed EYAs, along with the operational data, and conducted an operational assessment to benchmark the EYA results against actual operational data. Given the large amounts of sensitive data required for this effort, as well as historical opposition to sharing data within industry, successful completion of Phase 1 represents an unprecedented milestone for industry data sharing. To improve the accuracy and confidence of pre-construction EYAs, wind plant owners and investors need better, more certain, energy yield predictions. The WP3 Benchmark Project is an industry-driven response to this reality. For the first time, industry has taken the important step of working together at scale, sharing valuable operational data with DOE and NREL in order to investigate the sources of bias and uncertainty in these energy estimates. This IC provides wind plant preconstruction and operational data to NREL in an organized and documented fashion and provides guidance and feedback as needed. The IC also provides introspection of the design of experiment, key metrics of success, data challenges, analysis best practices, and quality of results.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of the angle between jet axes in pp collisions at $ \sqrt{s}$ = 5.02 TeV

This article reports measurements of the angle between differently defined jet axes in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 5.02 TeV carried out by the ALICE Collaboration. Charged particles at midrapidity are clustered into jets with resolution parameters R = 0.2 and 0.4. The jet axis, before and after Soft Drop grooming, is compared to the jet axis from the Winner-Takes-All (WTA) recombination scheme. The angle between these axes, ΔR axis , probes a wide phase space of the jet formation and evolution, ranging from the initial high-momentum-transfer scattering to the hadronization process. The ΔR axis observable is presented for 20 < $p^{ch jet}_{T}$ < 100 GeV/c, and compared to predictions from the PYTHIA 8 and Herwig 7 event generators. The distributions can also be calculated analytically with a leading hadronization correction related to the non-perturbative component of the Collins-Soper-Sterman (CSS) evolution kernel. Comparisons to analytical predictions at next-to-leading-logarithmic accuracy with leading hadronization correction implemented from experimental extractions of the CSS kernel in Drell-Yan measurements are presented. The analytical predictions describe the measured data within 20% in the perturbative regime, with surprising agreement in the non-perturbative regime as well. These results are compatible with the universality of the CSS kernel in the context of jet substructure.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improving Trustworthiness of Data-Driven Power Grid Contingency Analysis With Bayesian Residual Graph Neural Networks

The evolving energy landscape requires novel tools to efficiently perform contingency analysis and reliability assessment of power grids, potentially in real-time. The high computational cost of traditional power flow solvers limits their applicability in practice. Machine learning (ML) surrogates such as deep neural networks (NNs) accelerate power flow solvers computations, enabling high-order contingency analysis and real-time decision-making by learning highly nonlinear functions and integrating grid topology via graph architectures. However, (graph) NNs lack predictive power away from training data and do not provide predictive confidence estimates. Here, we present a Bayesian residual graph NN that integrates knowledge from low-fidelity data via residual training and embeds granular quantification of uncertainties, improving trustworthiness critical for high-consequence decision-making. Applying Bayesian concepts to NNs is challenging due to the high-dimensionality of both the parameter space, complicating derivation of a meaningful prior, and the output space in large grid systems, requiring enhanced techniques to assess the predicted high-dimensional uncertainties. Our contributions include: (1) Deriving a prior for fully connected and graph NNs that leverages low-fidelity data to guide mean predictions and appropriately control prior predictive uncertainty. (2) Integrating this prior within an ensembling with anchoring scheme for efficient approximate posterior inference. (3) Deriving enhanced metrics to assess accuracy of both the mean and uncertainty predictions in high dimensions, appropriately accounting for correlations propagated through graph layers. The resulting Bayesian residual graph NN is tested on a contingency analysis task for 14-bus and 118-bus grids.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Virtual Growth of SRF Materials

Niobium's native surface oxide affects SRF cavity and superconducting qubit performance, motivating interest in controlling its crystalline structure. We combine a literature-derived machine-learning analysis with temperature-dependent XRD to study crystalline ordering in Nb2O5. Random Forest models, trained on 74 processing conditions from 17 papers and validated by leave-one-group-out cross-validation, predicted broad crystallinity outcomes well (balanced accuracy 0.809), but struggled with specific polymorph identity (0.577). Annealing temperature was the dominant predictor across all targets; oxygen partial pressure showed negligible importance, reflecting narrow literature coverage rather than physical irrelevance. Temperature-dependent XRD on anodized and H2O2-treated Niobium showed structural evolution consistent with the machine learning predictions. Our model and overall approach provide a data-driven framework for identifying and optimizing conditions that promote crystallization in initially amorphous oxides. This framework can guide the selection of growth and post-annealing conditions for Nb surfaces by narrowing the experimental parameter space, thereby reducing trial-and-error efforts in developing oxide structures relevant to SRF applications.

Tilkin, Anthony [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Virtual Growth of SRF Materials: A Machine Learning Approach to Predict the Crystalline Structural Ordering in Nb Surface Oxides

Tilkin, Anthony [Unlisted, US, IL; Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2020

Machine-Learning X-Ray Absorption Spectra to Quantitative Accuracy

Simulations of excited state properties, such as spectral functions, are often computationally expensive and therefore not suitable for high-throughput modeling. As a proof of principle, here we demonstrate that graph-based neural networks can be used to predict the x-ray absorption near-edge structure spectra of molecules to quantitative accuracy. Specifically, the predicted spectra reproduce nearly all prominent peaks, with 90% of the predicted peak locations within 1 eV of the ground truth. Besides its own utility in spectral analysis and structure inference, our method can be combined with structure search algorithms to enable high-throughput spectrum sampling of the vast material configuration space, which opens up new pathways to material design and discovery.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗