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At least 1,027 records · Page 57

Medium- and heavy-duty value of technology improvement

Improvements in vehicle technology impact the purchase price of a vehicle and its operating cost. In this study, the monetary benefit of a technology improvement includes the potential reduction in vehicle price from using cheaper or smaller components, as well as the discounted value of the fuel cost savings. As technology progresses over time, the value and benefit of improving technology varies as well. In this study, the value of improving a few selected technologies (battery energy density, electric drive efficiency, tire rolling resistance, aerodynamics, light weighting) is studied and the value of the associated cost saving is quantified. The change in saving as a function of time, powertrain selection and vehicle type is also quantified. For example, a 10% reduction in aerodynamic losses is worth $24,222 today but only $8,810 in 2030 in an electric long haul truck. The decrease in value is primarily due to expected battery cost reduction over time. The same loss reduction in a 2030 conventional long haul truck is worth $5,117 and is primarily driven by a reduction in diesel expenditure. For conventional vehicles, the value of technology improvement is likely to increase over time as diesel price is expected to increase over the next decades while for electric vehicles, the value of technology improvement is likely to decrease as battery energy density increases and cost decreases. The study focuses on medium- and heavy-duty applications where cost of driving is of paramount importance. The savings realized from each technology improvement serve as an upper limit for how much can be spent to acquire that improvement in technology.

Freyermuth, Vincent↗

Techno-Economic Evaluation of Electrified Vehicle Options in Drayage Fleets

The electrification of drayage fleets offers potential economic and operational benefits, but the financial viability of electrified vehicles remains sensitive to battery cost, energy price, and fleet usage patterns. While total cost of ownership (TCO) is a useful benchmark, fleet operators and investors are equally concerned with investment performance metrics such as payback period (PB) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), which better reflect financial risks and investment return timelines. This study develops a unified techno-economic framework that jointly evaluates TCO, PB, and IRR to determine when electrified trucks become cost-effective alternatives to diesel trucks. Building on a previously developed cost modeling tool and using real-world telematics data from a Class 8 drayage fleet at the Port of Savannah, the analysis incorporates projected battery cost trajectories, electricity and diesel price trends, vehicle efficiency improvements, and multiple battery capacities. Parameter ranges reflect widely cited projections and observed drayage-duty-cycle variability. A surrogate-modeling method approximates economic performance across thousands of battery cost–electricity price combinations, enabling high-resolution identification of conditions that achieve TCO parity, acceptable PB thresholds, and target IRR levels. Additionally, the study estimates the evolving share of the fleet that can feasibly electrify over time under multiple economic metrics. This integrated framework offers a novel, data-driven approach to inform risk-aware decision-making for fleet electrification and supports investment planning under evolving cost and operational conditions.

Sun, Ruixiao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000341768676)↗

Informed Feature Selection for Data Clustering of CSP Plant Production

To make concentrating solar power (CSP) more cost competitive, rigourous optimizations must be run to improve plant design and operations. However, these optimizaitons rely on time consuming annual simulations that solve an electricity dispatch scheduling problem to maximize plant revenue. To reduce the runtime of annual dispatch simulations of CSP plants, a data clustering approach is utilized. This approach assumes that like days of revenue and electricity generation can be identified using weather and price data. Although weather and price are important factors for electricity production, this work investigates how thermal energy storage (TES) inventory at the beginning of a day, denoted as Si, can be used as a supplemental feature to group like days. A framework for creating and training a deep neural network to predict Si is proposed. This model is validated and assessed using eleven sets of testing data that were not used during training. Then, the data clustering approach is performed three seperate times with features of weather and price along with either Si from the neural network, Si from the full annual simulation, or no Si. Ultimately, the results suggest that using Si as an additional clustering feature improves the data clustering simulation accuracy by 1.4%.

Tuman, Matthew J. (ORCID:000900038772051X)↗

Rethinking the Role of Financial Transmission Rights in Wind-Rich Electricity Markets in the Central U.S.

Transmission congestion can cause a divergence between wholesale power prices at the individual pricing nodes where power is generated and the more-liquid trading hubs where that power is often delivered and sold. This nodal price difference is commonly referred to as the “locational basis” (or just “basis”). Because the basis varies over time, it can—if not hedged—unpredictably affect a wind plant’s revenue and/or value, which increases investor risk and potentially slows deployment. We find wind plants typically face a larger and more-negative basis than do thermal generators, and hence are more-negatively impacted by congestion. Moreover, while most thermal generators can effectively hedge basis risk by purchasing conventional fixed-volume financial transmission rights (FTRs), these fixed-volume FTRs do not effectively hedge basis risk for variable wind generation. More-effective hedging mechanisms may be required to support those generators most-impacted by congestion, and to promote continued investment in variable generation resources in congested markets.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Economic utilization of general aviation airport runways

The urban general aviation airport economics is studied in detail. The demand for airport services is discussed, and the different types of users are identified. The direct cost characteristics of the airport are summarized; costs to the airport owner are largely fixed, and, except at certain large airports, weight is not a significant factor in airport costs. The efficient use of an existing airport facility is explored, with the focus on the social cost of runway congestion as traffic density at the airport build up and queues form. The tradeoff between aircraft operating costs and airport costs is analyzed in terms of runway length. The transition from theory to practice is treated, and the policy of charging prices only on aircraft storage and fuel is felt likely to continue. Implications of the study from the standpoint of public policy include pricing that spreads traffic peaks to improve runway utilization, and pricing that discriminates against aircraft requiring long runways and causes owners to adopt V/STOL equipment.

Piper, R. R.↗

Preliminary appraisal of hydrogen and methane fuel in a Mach 2.7 supersonic transport

The higher heating value of hydrogen relative to JP fuel is estimated to reduce fuel weight by three fold and gross weight by 40 percent for comparable designed airplanes of equal payload and range. Engine design parameters were varied to determine the influence of lower noise goals on gross weight and direct operating cost. At current fuel prices, the DOC of a hydrogen airplane would be much higher than that of a JP airplane. A methane airplane could offer an 8.5-percent lower KOC than JP. But future shortages may escalate the prices of both JP and methane, whereas the price of hydrogen manufactured hydrolytically could be reduced from present levels. If in the future all three fuels are postulated to have equal costs per unit of energy, the DOC for hydrogen could be as much as 20 percent below that for JP on the reference 4000-nautical-mile mission. Longer ranges or lower noise requirements would improve the advantage of hydrogen.

Whitlow, J. B., Jr.↗

Design of short haul aircraft for fuel conservation

Current jet fuel prices of twice the 1972 level have significantly changed the characteristics of airplane design for best economy. The results of a contract with the NASA Ames Advanced Concepts and Missions Division confirmed the economic desirability of lower design cruise speeds and higher aspect-ratio wings compared to designs developed in the by-gone era of low fuel price. Evaluation of potential fuel conservation for short-haul aircraft showed that an interaction of airfoil technology and desirable engine characteristics is important: the supercritical airfoil permits higher aspect ratio wings with lower sweep; these, in turn, lower the cruise thrust requirements so that engines with higher bypass ratios are better matched in terms of lapse rate; lower cruise speeds (which are also better for fuel and operating cost economy) push the desired bypass ratio up further. Thus, if fuel prices remain high, or rise further, striking reductions in community noise level can be achieved as a fallout in development of a 1980s airplane and engine. Analyses are presented of developmental trends in the design of short-haul aircraft with lower cruise speeds and higher aspect-ratio wings, and the effects on fuel consumption of design field length, powered lift concepts, and turboprop as well as turbofan propulsion are discussed.

Bowden, M. K.↗

Assessment of industrial applications for fuel cell cogeneration systems

The fuel cell energy systems are designed with and without a utility connection for emergency back-up power. Sale of electricity to the utility during periods of low plant demand is not considered. For each of the three industrial applications, conceptual designs were also developed for conventional utility systems relying on purchased electric power and fossil-fired boilers for steam/hot water. The capital investment for each energy system is estimated. Annual operating costs are also determined for each system. These cost estimates are converted to levelized annual costs by applying appropriate economic factors. The breakeven electricity price that would make fuel cell systems competitive with the conventional systems is plotted as a function of naphtha price. The sensitivity of the breakeven point to capital investment and coal price is also evaluated.

Stickles, R. P.↗

Advanced General Aviation Turbine Engine (GATE) study

The small engine technology requirements suitable for general aviation service in the 1987 to 1988 time frame were defined. The market analysis showed potential United States engines sales of 31,500 per year providing that the turbine engine sales price approaches current reciprocating engine prices. An optimum engine design was prepared for four categories of fixed wing aircraft and for rotary wing applications. A common core approach was derived from the optimum engines that maximizes engine commonality over the power spectrum with a projected price competitive with reciprocating piston engines. The advanced technology features reduced engine cost, approximately 50 percent compared with current technology.

Smith, R.↗

Coal conversion products Industrial applications

The synfuels economic evaluation model was utilized to analyze cost and product economics of the TVA coal conversion facilities. It is concluded that; (1) moderate yearly future escalations ( 6%) in current natural gas prices will result in medium-Btu gas becoming competitive with natural gas at the plant boundary; (2) utilizing DRI price projections, the alternate synfuel products, except for electricity, will be competitive with their counterparts; (3) central site fuel cell generation of electricity, utilizing MBG, is economically less attractive than the other synthetic fuels, given projected price rises in electricity produced by other means; and (4) because of estimated northern Alabama synfuels market demands, existing conventional fuels, infrastructure and industrial synfuels retrofit problems, a diversity of transportable synfuels products should be produced by the conversion facility.

Warren, D.↗

Rating hydrogen as a potential aviation fuel

The viability of liquid hydrogen, liquid methane, and synthetic aviation kerosene as future alternate fuels for transport aircraft is analyzed, and the results of a comparative assessment are given in terms of cost, energy resource utilization, areas of fuel production, transmission airport facilities, and ultimate use in the aircraft. Important safety (fires) and some environmental aspects (CO2 balance) are also described. It is concluded that fuel price estimates indicate the price of synthetic aviation kerosene (synjet) would be approximately half of the price calculated for liquid hydrogen and somewhat less than that of liquid methane, with synjet from oil shale reported to be the least expensive.

Witcofski, R. D.↗

Performance and operational economics estimates for a coal gasification combined-cycle cogeneration powerplant

A performance and operational economics analysis is presented for an integrated-gasifier, combined-cycle (IGCC) system to meet the steam and baseload electrical requirements. The effect of time variations in steam and electrial requirements is included. The amount and timing of electricity purchases from sales to the electric utility are determined. The resulting expenses for purchased electricity and revenues from electricity sales are estimated by using an assumed utility rate structure model. Cogeneration results for a range of potential IGCC cogeneration system sizes are compared with the fuel consumption and costs of natural gas and electricity to meet requirements without cogeneration. The results indicate that an IGCC cogeneration system could save about 10 percent of the total fuel energy presently required to supply steam and electrical requirements without cogeneration. Also for the assumed future fuel and electricity prices, an annual operating cost savings of 21 percent to 26 percent could be achieved with such a cogeneration system. An analysis of the effects of electricity price, fuel price, and system availability indicates that the IGCC cogeneration system has a good potential for economical operation over a wide range in these assumptions.

Nainiger, J. J.↗

A U.S. view of silicon production processes

One of the objectives of the Low-Cost Solar Array Project is the demonstration of the practicality of processes for producing silicon, suitable for fabricating solar cells for terrestrial applications, at prices less than $14/kg. Approaches being investigated are related to a metallurgical silicon/silane/silicon process, a metallurgical silicon/dichlorosilane/Siemens-type process, and a silicon tetrachloride-zinc reduction process. There is a great probability that the first process will yield semiconductor grade Si at a price less than $14/kg. The second process appears to be capable of providing polysilicon with a purity equivalent to the present commercial semiconductor grade silicon at a price of about $20/kg. An important part of the program is the investigation of the effects of impurities on the performance of solar cells.

Lutwack, R.↗

Phosphoric acid fuel cell platinum use study

The U.S. Department of Energy is promoting the private development of phosphoric acid fuel cell (PAFC) power plants for terrestrial applications. Current PAFC technology utilizes platinum as catalysts in the power electrodes. The possible repercussions that the platinum demand of PAFC power plant commercialization will have on the worldwide supply and price of platinum from the outset of commercialization to the year 2000 are investigated. The platinum demand of PAFC commercialization is estimated by developing forecasts of platinum use per unit of generating capacity and penetration of PAFC power plants into the electric generation market. The ability of the platinum supply market to meet future demands is gauged by assessing the size of platinum reserves and the capability of platinum producers to extract, refine and market sufficient quantities of these reserves. The size and timing of platinum price shifts induced by the added demand of PAFC commercialization are investigated by several analytical methods. Estimates of these price shifts are then used to calculate the subsequent effects on PAFC power plant capital costs.

Lundblad, H. L.↗

Study to establish cost projections for production of Redox chemicals

A cost study of four proposed manufacturing processes for redox chemicals for the NASA REDOX Energy Storage System yielded favorable selling prices in the range $0.99 to $1.91/kg of chromic chloride, anhydrous basis, including ferrous chloride. The prices corresponded to specific energy storage costs from under $9 to $17/kWh. A refined and expanded cost analysis of the most favored process yielded a price estimate corresponding to a storage cost of $11/kWh. The findings supported the potential economic viability of the NASA REDOX system.

Walther, J. F.↗

Updated Conceptual Cost Estimating

16-page report discusses development and use of NASA TR-1508, the Kennedy Space Center Aerospace Construction Price Book for preparing conceptual, budget, funding, cost-estimating, and preliminary cost-engineering reports. Updated annually from 1974 through 1985 with actual bid prices and government estimates. Includes labor and material quantities and prices with contractor and subcontractor markups for buildings, facilities, and systems at Kennedy Space Center. While data pertains to aerospace facilities, format and cost-estimating techniques guide estimation of costs in other construction applications.

Brown, J. A.↗

Transportation cost - Impacts on commercial users

The potential impact of transportation price on the financial performance of space business ventures is analyzed. Business plans for generic space facilities (both STS based and free-flying), space processing, and communications satellite businesses were developed. Impacts were established parametrically for return on investment and customer product/service price as a function of transportation price. The following businesses were considered: communications satellite; shuttle based and free-flying space facilities; and space pharmaceuticals manufacturing and minilab leasing.

Greenberg, Joel S.↗

Kappa Group: The initial guess. A proposal in response to a commercial air transportation study

Kappa Aerospace presents their Aeroworld Aircraft, the Initial Guess (IG). This aircraft is designed to generate profit in the market which is currently controlled by the train and boat industry. The main priority of the design team was to develop an extremely efficient aircraft that could be sold at a reasonable price. The IG offers a quick and safe alternative to the existing means of transportation at a competitive price. The cruise velocity of 28 ft/sec. allows all flights to be between 20 and 45 minutes, which is a remarkable savings in time compared to travel by boat or train. The IG is propelled by a single Astro-05 engine with a Zinger 10-6 propeller. The Astro-05 is not an extremely powerful engine; however, it provides enough thrust to meet the design and safety requirements. The major advantage of the Astro-05 is that it is the most efficient engine available. The fuel efficiency of the Astro-05 is what puts the aircraft ahead of the competition. The money saved on an efficient engine can be passed on as lower ticket prices or increased revenue. The IG has a payload of 56 passengers and a wingspan of 7 ft. The 7 ft. wingspan allows the aircraft to fit into the gates of all of the cities that are targeted. Future endeavors of Kappa Aerospace will include fitting a stretch version of the IG with a larger propulsion system. This derivative aircraft will be able to carry more passengers and will be placed on the routes which have the greatest demand for travel. The fuselage and empennage are made of a wooden truss configuration, while the wing is made of a rib/spare configuration. The stress carrying elements are made of spruce, the nonstress carrying elements are made of balsa. The wing is removable for easy access into the fuselage. The easy access to the batteries will keep maintenance costs down.

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