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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Accelerating astronomical and cosmological inference with preconditioned Monte Carlo

ABSTRACT We introduce preconditioned Monte Carlo (PMC), a novel Monte Carlo method for Bayesian inference that facilitates efficient sampling of probability distributions with non-trivial geometry. PMC utilizes a Normalizing Flow (NF) in order to decorrelate the parameters of the distribution and then proceeds by sampling from the preconditioned target distribution using an adaptive Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) scheme. The results produced by PMC include samples from the posterior distribution and an estimate of the model evidence that can be used for parameter inference and model comparison, respectively. The aforementioned framework has been thoroughly tested in a variety of challenging target distributions achieving state-of-the-art sampling performance. In the cases of primordial feature analysis and gravitational wave inference, PMC is approximately 50 and 25 times faster, respectively, than nested sampling (NS). We found that in higher dimensional applications, the acceleration is even greater. Finally, PMC is directly parallelisable, manifesting linear scaling up to thousands of CPUs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraining accuracy of the pairwise velocities in N -body simulations using scale-free models

We present a continuation of an analysis that aims to quantify resolution of N-body simulations by exploiting large (up to N = 4096 3 ) simulations of scale-free cosmologies run using abacus. Here, we focus on radial pairwise velocities of the matter field, both by direct estimation and through the cumulative two-point correlation function (using the pair conservation equation). We find that convergence at the 1 per cent level of the mean relative pairwise velocity can be demonstrated over a range of scales, evolving from a few times the grid spacing at early times to slightly below this scale at late times. We show the analysis of two different box sizes as well as from averaging results from the smaller boxes, and compare the power of the two aforementioned estimators in constraining accuracy at each scale. Down to scales of the order of the smoothing parameter, convergence is obtained at ∼5 per cent precision, and shows a behaviour indicating asymptotic stable clustering. In conclusion, we also infer for LCDM simulations conservative estimates on the evolution of the lower cut-off to resolution (at 1 and 5 per cent precision) as a function of redshift.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Interplay between magnetism and band topology in the kagome magnets R Mn 6 Sn 6

Kagome-lattice magnets R Mn 6 Sn 6 recently emerged as a new platform to exploit the interplay between magnetism and topological electronic states. Some of the most exciting features of this family are the dramatic dependence of the easy magnetization direction on the rare-earth specie, despite other magnetic and electronic properties being essentially unchanged, and the kagome geometry of the Mn planes that in principle can generate flat bands and Dirac points; gapping of the Dirac points by spin-orbit coupling has been suggested recently to be responsible for the observed anomalous Hall response in the member TbMn 6 Sn 6 . In this paper, we address both issues with ab initio calculations. We have discovered the significant role played by higher-order crystal-field parameters and rare-earth magnetic anisotropy constants in these systems. Further, we demonstrate that the microscopic origin of rare-earth magnetic anisotropy can also be quantified and understood at various levels: ab initio, phenomenological, and analytical. In particular, using a simple and physically transparent analytical model based on perturbation theory, we are able to explain, with full quantitative agreement, the evolution of rare-earth magnetic anisotropy across the series. We analyze in detail the topological properties of Mn-dominated bands and demonstrate how they emerge from the multiorbital planar kagome model. We further show that, despite this fact, most of the topological features at the Brillouin zone corner K are strongly 3D and therefore cannot explain the observed quasi-2D anomalous Hall effect, while the most pronounced quasi-2D dispersion are too far removed from the Fermi level. By employing self-consistent calculations with ab initio many-body approaches, we demonstrate that the exchange-correlation effects beyond the density functional theory for itinerant Mn- d electrons do not significantly alter the obtained electronic and magnetic structure. Therefore, we conclude that, contrary to previous claims, the most pronounced 2D kagome-derived topological band features bear little relevance to transport in RMn 6 Sn 6 , albeit they may possibly be brought to focus by electron or hole doping.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing correlated truncation errors in modern nucleon-nucleon potentials

We test the BUQEYE model of correlated effective field theory (EFT) truncation errors on Reinert, Krebs, and Epelbaum's semilocal momentum-space implementation of the chiral EFT (𝜒⁢EFT ) expansion of the nucleon-nucleon (NN) potential. This Bayesian model hypothesizes that dimensionless coefficient functions extracted from the order-by-order corrections to NN observables can be treated as draws from a Gaussian process (GP). We combine a variety of graphical and statistical diagnostics to assess when predicted observables have a 𝜒⁢EFT convergence pattern consistent with the hypothesized GP statistical model. Our conclusions are that, first, the BUQEYE model is generally applicable to the potential investigated here, which enables statistically principled estimates of the impact of higher EFT orders on observables. Second, parameters defining the extracted coefficients such as the expansion parameter 𝑄 must be well chosen for the coefficients to exhibit a regular convergence pattern—a property we exploit to obtain posterior distributions for such quantities. Third, the assumption of GP stationarity across lab energy and scattering angle is not generally met; this necessitates adjustments in future work. We provide a workflow and interpretive guide for our analysis framework, and show what can be inferred about probability distributions for 𝑄, the EFT breakdown scale Λ 𝑏 , the scale associated with soft physics in the 𝜒⁢EFT potential 𝑚 eff , and the GP hyperparameters. All our results can be reproduced using a publicly available Jupyter notebook, which can be straightforwardly modified to analyze other 𝜒⁢EFT NN potentials.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2022

Rocks, water, and noble liquids: Unfolding the flavor contents of supernova neutrinos

Measuring core-collapse supernova neutrinos, both from individual supernovae within the Milky Way and from past core collapses throughout the Universe (the diffuse supernova neutrino background, or DSNB), is one of the main goals of current and next generation neutrino experiments. Detecting the heavy-lepton flavor (muon and tau types, collectively v x ) component of the flux is particularly challenging due to small statistics and large backgrounds. Further, while the next galactic neutrino burst will be observed in a plethora of neutrino channels, allowing us to measure a small number of v x events, only upper limits are anticipated for the diffuse v x flux even after decades of data taking with conventional detectors. However, paleo detectors could measure the time-integrated flux of neutrinos from galactic core-collapse supernovae via flavor-blind neutral current interactions. In this work, we show how combining a measurement of the average galactic core-collapse supernova flux with paleo detectors and measurements of the DSNB electron-type neutrino fluxes with the next-generation water Cherenkov detector Hyper-Kamiokande and the liquid noble gas detector DUNE will allow to determine the mean supernova vx flux parameters with precision of order ten percent. Realizing this potential requires both the cosmic supernova rate out to z~1 and the integrated Galactic supernova rate over the last ~1 Gyr to be established at the ~10% level.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Generation of momentum transport in weakly turbulent β -plane magnetohydrodynamics

Magnetohydrodynamic turbulence on a β plane with an in-plane mean field, a system which serves as a simple model for the solar tachocline, is investigated analytically and computationally. We first derive two useful analytic constraints: We express the mean turbulent cross-helicity in terms of the mean turbulent magnetic energy, and then show that (for weak turbulence) the time-averaged momentum transport in the system can be expressed in terms of the cross-helicity spectrum. Here, we then complete a closure of the system using weak turbulence theory, appropriately extended to a system with multiple interacting eigenmodes. We use this closure to perturbatively solve for the spectra at lowest order in the Rossby parameter β and thereby show that the momentum transport in the system is O ⁡(β 2 ), thus quantifying the transition away from Alfvénized turbulence. Finally, we verify our theoretical results by performing direct numerical simulations of the system over a broad range of β.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nonlinear Photovoltaic Degradation Rates: Modeling and Comparison Against Conventional Methods

Although common practice for estimating photovoltaic (PV) degradation rate (RD) assumes a linear behavior, field data have shown that degradation rates are frequently nonlinear. This article presents a new methodology to detect and calculate nonlinear RD based on PV performance time-series from nine different systems over an eight-year period. Prior to performing the analysis and in order to adjust model parameters to reflect actual PV operation, synthetic datasets were utilized for calibration purposes. A change-point analysis is then applied to detect changes in the slopes of PV trends, which are extracted from constructed performance ratio (PR) time-series. Once the number and location of change points is found, the ordinary least squares method is applied to the different segments to compute the corresponding rates. The obtained results verified that the extracted trends from the PR time-series may not always be linear and therefore, “nonconventional” models need to be applied. All thin-film technologies demonstrated nonlinear behavior whereas nonlinearity detected in the crystalline silicon systems is thought to be due to a maintenance event. A comparative analysis between the new methodology and other conventional methods demonstrated levelized cost of energy differences of up to 6.14%, highlighting the importance of considering nonlinear degradation behavior

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Robust Predictive Control for Modular Solid-State Transformer With Reduced DC Link and Parameter Mismatch

This paper presents the analysis and implementation of a predictive control method for dc-link regulation and voltage balance in a cascaded modular reduced dc-link solid-state transformer (SST). Passive components like bulky dc links limit the power density of power converters, especially medium-voltage (MV) SST. Reduced dc-link or low-inertia converters can dramatically reduce the size, cost, and weight by tolerating larger dc-link ripples and improve the reliability with electrolytic capacitor-less dc link. However, a small dc link leads to tight coupling between the input and the output stages, which is a challenge for control design. In stacked low-inertia converters (SLIC), the low-inertia converter modules are stacked for MV applications, resulting in coupling between the modules and making the control more challenging. A new model predictive control method which can achieve deadbeat regulation on the dc link without weighting factors has been proposed to address this novel problem. This paper focuses on analyzing the condition of the low-inertia dc link up to 80% ripple, the robustness of the control under parameter mismatches, high-order terms, and important implementation issues such as model-based sampling and computation delay compensation. Significantly, the high-order terms are introduced because of the large dc-link ripple. These high-order terms are unique to the SLIC and negligible in conventional high-inertia converters. A discrete-time large-signal model is built to capture the dc-link’s nonlinear dynamics, and the eigenvalues of a small-signal Jacobian matrix are analyzed with Floquet theory to evaluate stability, using the modular soft-switching solid-state transformer (M-S4T) as an example of the SLIC. Simulation and experimental results of an MVDC M-S4T verify the analysis and the predictive control method. Finally, the general application of the predictive control to low-inertia converters is compared against a conventional PI controller using a reduced dc-link active-front-end (AFE) rectifier as an example.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

VADER: A Tool for Criticality Safety Validation

The purpose of criticality safety is to prevent any inadvertent criticality from occurring during the handling or storage of fissile material. Calculations are frequently used to demonstrate that a sufficient subcritical margin exists. Validation is a key aspect of the evaluation process, establishing the suitability, accuracy, and associated uncertainty of the computational method and data to be used for the intended application. The validation process is performed by comparing the results of critical experiments with the calculated results from models of the experiments using the computational method to be validated. Laboratory critical experiments are controlled systems that achieve a k eff of approximately 1 in order to investigate the parameters at which such a critical condition is achieved. The validation parameters that are traditionally applied to safety analysis calculations are the bias and the bias uncertainty . The bias is the deviation of the average k eff of the validation suite from unity. The bias uncertainty accounts for the statistical uncertainty in the bias based on the standard deviation, sample size, and distribution of k eff values of the validation suite. The values of bias and bias uncertainty ensure that the systems predicted to be subcritical by the computational method will indeed be subcritical. The bias and bias uncertainty are often combined to determine an upper subcritical limit (USL) or computational margin that can then be applied to safety analysis calculations. Many methods have been developed by different organizations to calculate the bias and bias uncertainty for various types of criticality analyses. Each of these methods typically requires that the validity of various underpinning statistical assumptions be confirmed to demonstrate that the method is appropriate for the analysis of a given validation suite. An example of the validation decision making flow is shown in Fig.1. As shown in Fig. 1, the analyst performing the validation fits a trend line to the data and performs a test to determine if the trend was a statistically better representation of the data than if it were treated as an uncorrelated sample. If the trend line is a better representation of the data, then the analyst uses any one of a number of trending techniques to determine the bias and bias uncertainty. If a trend is not an appropriate representation of the data, then the analyst proceeds to perform a normality assessment for the data. If the normal assumption can be shown to be acceptable, then the analyst calculates the bias and bias uncertainty with the parametric technique. If the assumption of normality cannot be justified, then the nonparametric technique is used. Once the decision flow has been followed and the appropriate technique has been selected, the bias and bias uncertainty is typically combined with an administrative margin to determine a USL below which calculated values of k eff for safety analysis models can be considered subcritical. The calculations used in each decision are often performed with spreadsheets or with small programs available at various sites performing criticality analyses. Expertise in understanding and interpreting the results must be maintained to perform these calculations. This can often be an error-prone process. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is currently developing the Validation and Data Evaluation Resource (VADER) to simplify and automate the criticality safety validation process and to provide a software quality assurance pedigree to the calculational methods used. This paper discusses the use of the Fulcrum user interface with VADER, the anticipated initial capabilities of VADER to perform validation analyses, and the output from the code.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterizing IHE Response to Multiple Shock Loading

The response of high explosives to shock loading is traditionally measured with a steady loading pressure. In many accident scenarios involving fragment impact, however, a loading duration that is shorter than the build up to detonation may occur. Fragments passing through multiple materials before reaching a high explosive charge may produce loading that is comprised of more than one shock wave. Additionally, the build up to detonation in high explosive corner turning loads the explosive a short duration pressure pulse, since rarefactions can often rapidly overtake the reactive wave. For these reasons, we have studied the response of the insensitive high explosive (IHE) materials PBX 9502 and LX-17 to complex loadings of varied intensity and duration. We refer to a single loading of limited duration as a “thin pulse”, whereas more complex scenarios were studied with an impactor that produces a double shock in the explosive. The following report presents experimental data and analyses of thin pulse shock initiation and double shock experiments designed to guide development of models of Insensitive High Explosives (IHEs) under controlled one-dimensional conditions relevant to accident scenarios and corner turning. Thin pulse shock initiation data on PBX 9502 and LX-17 were obtained under varied pulse duration, pressed density, and temperature conditions in order to probe various parameters essential for the development of a physics-based Cheetah reactive flow hotspot model. In situ pressure gauges provide insight into the degree of reaction in the explosive that are not obtainable with optical PDV measurements or distance measurements such as run to detonation. Double shock data was obtained to inform a Composition Aware Cheetah model which can be applied to any TATB-based IHEs. This model supports efforts to find a new IHE formulation and potentially incorporate new binders into IHE formulations. Simulations of each experiment are included to demonstrate the utility of these focused experiments to developing models of HE behavior. One-dimensional gas gun experiments are essential for characterizing shocked HE behavior and informing HE models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1972

A pictorial study of an invariant torus in phase space of four dimensions.

An investigation was conducted with the aid of a computer graphics device at Goddard Space Flight Center to study the behavior of the invariant manifolds of a particular fourth-order equation, as a parameter in the equation is varied over the interval from 0 to 1. The equation consists of two coupled Van der Pol equations. For a small parameter value, the manifold is an asymptotically stable torus, where the flow on the torus is simply a rotation. As the value of the parameter is increased, the only thing that changes is the nature of the flow on the torus, which itself persists throughout the parameter variation. It is shown that ultimately the four periodic cycles which appear play a more significant part in the phase profile of the system than does the torus itself.

Baxter, R.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Estimating sorber capacity for multiple contaminants

Computer program estimates quantity of activated charcoal required to control multiple contaminants. Program scans all contaminants by potential parameter value and then orders them from lowest to highest values. It calculates quantity of sorbent required to remove most strongly adsorbed material; and then, using potential plot data, capacity of other materials is calculated on basis of corrected capacity.

Olcott, T. M.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Further comments on the application of the method of averaging to the study of the rotational motions of a triaxial rigid body, part 3

Variational equations were applied to the case of a rapidly spinning triaxial body moving in an elliptic orbit, in which the orbital plane is regressing at a constant rate. The explicit differential equations obtained in this application were integrated by the method of averaging to develop secular analytical expressions, which, to first-order in a small parameter, describe the complete space motions of the rigid body under the influence of nonresonant gravity-gradient perturbations. The effects of aerodynamic torque on the rotational motion of an orbiting satellite are studied, as another example of the application of the variational equations derived and the method of averaging.

Liu, J. J. F.↗
NASA NTRS1973

High speed flow past wings

The analytical solution to the transonic small perturbation equation which describes steady compressible flow past finite wings at subsonic speeds can be expressed as a nonlinear integral equation with the perturbation velocity potential as the unknown function. This known formulation is substituted by a system of nonlinear algebraic equations to which various methods are applicable for its solution. Due to the presence of mathematical discontinuities in the flow solutions, however, a main computational difficulty was to ensure uniqueness of the solutions when local velocities on the wing exceeded the speed of sound. For continuous solutions this was achieved by embedding the algebraic system in an one-parameter operator homotopy in order to apply the method of parametric differentiation. The solution to the initial system of equations appears then as a solution to a Cauchy problem where the initial condition is related to the accompanying incompressible flow solution. In using this technique, however, a continuous dependence of the solution development on the initial data is lost when the solution reaches the minimum bifurcation point. A steepest descent iteration technique was therefore, added to the computational scheme for the calculation of discontinuous flow solutions. Results for purely subsonic flows and supersonic flows with and without compression shocks are given and compared with other available theoretical solutions.

Norstrud, H.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Engineering studies related to Skylab program

The relationship between the S-193 Automatic Gain Control data and the magnitude of received signal power was studied in order to characterize performance parameters for Skylab equipment. The r-factor was used for the assessment and is defined to be less than unity, and a function of off-nadir angle, ocean surface roughness, and receiver signal to noise ratio. A digital computer simulation was also used to assess to additive receiver, or white noise. The system model for the digital simulation is described, along with intermediate frequency and video impulse response functions used, details of the input waveforms, and results to date. Specific discussion of the digital computer programs used is also provided.

Hayne, G. S.↗