Bayesian modeling reveals metabolite‐dependent ultrasensitivity in the cyanobacterial circadian clock
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59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
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Results for “Monte Carlo Modelling”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Bayesian Exploration of Phenomenological EoS of Neutron/Hybrid Stars with Recent Observations
The description of the stellar interior of compact stars remains as a big challenge for the nuclear astrophysics community. The consolidated knowledge is restricted to density regions around the saturation of hadronic matter ρ 0 =2.8 × 10 14 g cm -3 , regimes where our nuclear models are successfully applied. As one moves towards higher densities and extreme conditions up to the quark/gluons deconfinement, little can be said about the microphysics of the equation of state (EoS). Here, we employ a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) strategy to access the variability at high density regions of polytropic piecewise models for neutron star (NS) EoS or possible hybrid stars, i.e., a NS with a small quark-matter core. With a fixed description of the hadronic matter for low density, below the nuclear saturation density, we explore a variety of models for the high density regimes leading to stellar masses near to 2.5 M ⊙ , in accordance with the observations of massive pulsars. The models are constrained, including the observation of the merger of neutrons stars from VIRGO-LIGO and with the pulsar observed by NICER. In addition, we also discuss the possibility of the use of a Bayesian power regression model with heteroscedastic error. The set of EoS from the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) was used as input and treated as the data set for the testing case.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
The LLNL nuclear data infrastructure for the GNDS data format
The next generation of nuclear data infrastructure tools at the Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) consists of pipeline of codes that read and process nuclear data from evaluated files saved in the new GNDS (Generalised Nuclear Data Structure) nuclear data format. The processing code FUDGE (For Updating Data and Generating Evaluations) is at the front-end of this pipeline as it reads and process the evaluated data for use in downstream transport codes. FUDGE is Python based with C and C++ extensions for computationally intensive tasks. As is the case for the evaluated data, the processed output is also saved in the GNDS format and the GIDI+ API is provided as the interface between the processed data and the transport codes. GIDI+ is a C++ based suite of codes and it includes GIDI (General Interaction Data Interface), a library for reading and writing GNDS data, and MCGIDI which is the cross section lookup, and reaction and product distribution sampling interface between Monte Carlo transport codes and the GNDS data. GIDI provides methods for easy access to the multi-group processed GNDS data and this is demonstrated through its implementation in ARDRA, the LLNL deterministic transport code. The evaluation and sampling methods in MCGIDI are available as both CPU and GPU methods which facilitates the use of MCGIDI in both traditional CPU-based as well as the next generation mixed model computational architectures. This is demonstrated through the GIDI+ implementation in MERCURY, the LLNL Monte Carlo transport code. (authors)
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Enhancing charge ratio sensitivity to hadronization effects via jet selections on resolved SoftDrop splitting
The study of quantum chromodynamics (QCD) at ultrarelativistic energies can be performed in a controlled environment through lepton-hadron deep inelastic scatterings. In such collisions, the high-energy partonic emissions that follow from the ejected hard partons are accurately described by perturbative QCD. However, the lower energy scales at which quarks and gluons experience color confinement, i.e., hadronization mechanism, fall outside the validity regions for perturbative calculations, requiring phenomenological models tuned to data to describe it. As such, hadronization physics cannot be currently derived from first principles alone. Monte Carlo event generators are useful tools to describe these processes as they simulate both the perturbative and the nonperturbative interactions, with model-dependent energy scales that control parton dynamics. This work employs jets—experimental reconstructions of final-state particles likely to have a common partonic origin—to inspect this transition further. Although originally proposed to circumvent hadronization effects, we show that jets can be utilized as probes of nonperturbative phenomena via their substructure. The charge correlation ratio was recently shown to be sensitive to hadronization effects. Our work further improves this sensitivity to nonperturbative scales by introducing a new selection based on the relative placement of the within the clustering tree, defined as the unclustering that resolves the jet’s leading charged particles. Published by the American Physical Society 2025
Apolinário, Liliana (ORCID:0000000335009681)↗
A Differentiable Hydrology Approach for Modeling With Time-Varying Parameters
In the analysis of observational data with mathematical models, it is often desirable to let one or more model parameters vary with time to account for changing environmental conditions or to offer more flexibility. A standard approach for dynamic models is to allow for the number of parameters to grow as a function of time, leading to a high-dimensional inference problem for long data records. We propose using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, a gradient-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, to perform Bayesian inference for time-varying parameters (TVP) in hydrology models. As derivatives of model error functions with regard to parameters are not available in closed form, we implemented the GR4J rainfall-runoff models in Theano/PyMC3, and Jax/NumPyro, allowing for the application of automatic differentiation techniques. A simulation experiment assessing the viability of these methods for recovering underlying temporal variation in parameters indicates that a discrete Gaussian random walk-based prior appears to be best suited across a range of scenarios while the continuous-time Gaussian process compares relatively poorly. In an analysis of 20 years of daily real-world streamflow records from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) hydrology data set with increasing data sparsity and at multiple temporal resolutions, we find that TVP inference with gradient-based MCMC is a flexible and reliable approach for analyzing hydrology models with dynamic parameter sets.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Generative models for simulation of KamLAND-Zen
Abstract The next generation of searches for neutrinoless double beta decay ($$0 \nu \beta \beta $$ 0 ν β β ) are poised to answer deep questions on the nature of neutrinos and the source of the Universe’s matter–antimatter asymmetry. They will be looking for event rates of less than one event per ton of instrumented isotope per year. To claim discovery, accurate and efficient simulations of detector events that mimic$$0 \nu \beta \beta $$ 0 ν β β is critical. Traditional Monte Carlo (MC) simulations can be supplemented by machine-learning-based generative models. This work describes the performance of generative models that we designed for monolithic liquid scintillator detectors like KamLAND to produce accurate simulation data without a predefined physics model. We present their current ability to recover low-level features and perform interpolation. In the future, the results of these generative models can be used to improve event classification and background rejection by providing high-quality abundant generated data.
Physics↗
Data Assimilative Optimization of WSA Source Surface and Interface Radii using Particle Filtering
TheWang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model estimates solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field polarity in the inner heliosphere using global photospheric magnetic field maps. WSA employs the Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) and Schatten Current Sheet (SCS) models to determine the Sun's global coronal magnetic field. The PFSS and SCS models are connected through two radial parameters, the source surface and interface radii, which specify the overlap region between the inner SCS and outer PFSS models. Though both radii values are adjustable, they have typically been fixed to 2.5 solar radii. Our work highlights how solar wind predictions improve when the radii are allowed to vary over time. Data assimilation using particle filtering (sequential Monte Carlo) is used to infer optimal values over a fixed time window. Solar wind model predictions and satellite observations are compared with a newly developed quality-of-agreement prediction metric. The agreement metric between the model and observations is assumed to correspond to the probability of the two key WSA model parameters, the source surface and interface radii, where the highest metric value implies the optimal radii.We find that the optimal particle filter values of solar radii can perform twice as well as standard values for an exploratory period during Carrington Rotation 1901, with these values also reducing nonphysical kinking effects seen in solar magnetic field lines. Data assimilation choices of input realization and time frame have implications for variation in the solar wind over time. We present this work's theoretical context and practical applications for prediction accuracy.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Analyzing rotational bands in odd-mass nuclei using effective field theory and Bayesian methods
We recently developed an Effective Field Theory (EFT) for rotational bands in odd-mass nuclei. Here we use EFT expressions to perform a Bayesian analysis of data on the rotational energy levels of 99 Tc, 155,157 Gd, 159 Dy, 167,169 Er, 167,169 Tm, 183 W, 235 U and 239 Pu. The error model in our Bayesian analysis includes both experimental and EFT truncation uncertainties. It also accounts for the fact that low-energy constants (LECs) at even and odd orders are expected to have different sizes. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling to explore the joint posterior of the EFT and error-model parameters and show both the LECs and the breakdown scale can be reliably determined. We extract the LECs up to fourth order in the EFT and find that, provided we correctly account for EFT truncation errors in our likelihood, results for lower-order LECs are stable as we go to higher orders. LEC results are also stable with respect to the addition of higher-energy data. We extract the expansion parameter for all the nuclei listed above and find a clear correlation between the extracted and the expected value of the inverse breakdown scale, W, based on the single-particle and vibrational energy scales. However, the W that actually determines the convergence of the EFT expansion is markedly smaller than would be naively expected based on those scales.
EFT↗
Valence bond order in a honeycomb antiferromagnet coupled to quantum phonons
We use exact quantum Monte Carlo simulations to demonstrate that the Néel ground state of an antiferromagnetic SU(2) spin-1/2 Heisenberg model on the honeycomb lattice can be destroyed by a coupling to quantum phonons. Here, we find a clear first-order transition to a valence bond solid state with Kekulé order instead of a deconfined quantum critical point. However, quantum lattice fluctuations can drive the transition towards weakly first order, revealing a tunability of the transition by the retardation of the interaction. In contrast to the one-dimensional case, our phase diagram in the adiabatic regime is qualitatively different from the frustrated J 1 –J 2 model. Our results suggest that a coupling to bond phonons can induce Kekulé order in Dirac systems.
75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
SANS quantification of bound water in water-soluble polymers across multiple concentration regimes
Contrast-variation small-angle neutron scattering (CV-SANS) is a widely used technique for quantifying hydration water in soft matter systems, but it is predominantly applied in the dilute regime or for systems with a well-defined structure factor. Here, CV-SANS was used to quantify the number of hydration water molecules associating with three water-soluble polymers with different critical solution temperatures and types of water–solute interactions in dilute, semidilute, and concentrated solution through the exploration of novel methods of data fitting and analysis. Multiple SANS fitting workflows with varying levels of model assumptions were evaluated and compared to give insight into SANS model selection. These fitting pathways ranged from general, model-free algorithms to more standard form and structure factor fitting. In addition, Monte Carlo bootstrapping was evaluated as a method to estimate parameter uncertainty through simulation of technical replicates. The most robust fitting workflow for dilute solutions was found to be form factor fitting without CV-SANS ( i.e. polymer in 100% D 2 O). For semidilute and concentrated solutions, while the model-free approach can be mathematically defined for CV-SANS data, the addition of a structure factor imposes physical constraints on the optimization problem, suggesting that the optimal fitting pathway should include appropriate form and structure factor models. The measured hydration numbers were consistent with the number of tightly bound water molecules associated with each monomer unit, and the concentration dependence of the hydration number was largely governed by the chemistry-specific interactions between water and polymer. Polymers with weaker water–polymer interactions ( i.e. those with fewer hydration water molecules) were found to have more bound water at higher concentrations than those with stronger water–polymer interactions due to the increase in the number of forced water–polymer contacts in the concentrated system. This SANS-based method to count hydration water molecules can be applied to polymers in any concentration regime, which will lead to improved understanding of water–polymer interactions and their impact on materials design.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Simulation of the radiological impact during selected space travel scenarios using the Monte Carlo code FLUKA
Radiation is one of the major challenges of space exploration and can negatively impact both biological and electronic systems, particularly in the case of long-term journeys or if the spaceship features inadequate shielding. Here, in this work, the cumulative dose levels from prompt radiation in the spacecraft are quantified alongside the residual dose contributions arising from activation of vessel components. The radiological impact was assessed for various space exploration scenarios, considering the same spaceship model featuring three shielding design variants. In each scenario, the radiation environment was generated with the Monte Carlo particle transport and interaction code FLUKA. These results can be used to quantify the contribution of prompt and residual dose in spacefaring ventures and help determine optimal radiation shielding needed to mitigate the overall radiological impact on both astronauts and equipment.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Validating sequential Monte Carlo for gravitational-wave inference
Nested sampling (NS) is the preferred stochastic sampling algorithm for gravitational-wave inference for compact binary coalescences. It can handle the complex nature of the gravitational-wave likelihood surface and provides an estimate of the Bayesian model evidence. However, there is another class of algorithms that meets the same requirements, but has not been used for gravitational-wave analyses: sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), an extension of importance sampling that maps samples from an initial density to a target density via a series of intermediate densities. In this work, we validate a type of SMC algorithm, called persistent sampling (PS), for gravitational-wave inference. We consider a range of different scenarios including binary black holes and binary neutron stars and real and simulated data and show that PS produces results that are consistent with NS whilst being, on average, 2 times more efficient and 2.74 times faster. This demonstrates that PS is a viable alternative to NS that should be considered for future gravitational-wave analyses.
black hole mergers↗
Observing Profiles of Derived Kinematic Field Quantities Using a Network of Profiling Sites
Abstract Observations of thermodynamic and kinematic parameters associated with derivatives of the thermodynamics and wind fields, namely, advection, vorticity, divergence, and deformation, can be obtained by applying Green’s theorem to a network of observing sites. The five nodes that comprise the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) profiling network, spaced 50–80 km apart, are used to obtain measurements of these parameters over a finite region. To demonstrate the applicability of this technique at this location, it is first applied to gridded model output from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) numerical weather prediction model, using profiles from the locations of ARM network sites, so that values calculated from this method can be directly compared to finite difference calculations. Good agreement is found between both approaches as well as between the model and values calculated from the observations. Uncertainties for the observations are obtained via a Monte Carlo process in which the profiles are randomly perturbed in accordance with their known error characteristics. The existing size of the ARM network is well suited to capturing these parameters, with strong correlations to model values and smaller uncertainties than a more closely spaced network, yet it is small enough that it avoids the tendency for advection to go to zero over a large area.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Three-state Potts nematic order in stacked frustrated spin models with SO(3) symmetry
Here, we propose stacked two-dimensional lattice designs of frustrated and SO(3) symmetric spin models consisting of antiferromagnetic (AF) triangular and ferromagnetic (FM) sixfold symmetric sublattices that realize emergent $\mathbb{Z}_{3}$ Potts nematic order. Considering bilinear-biquadratic spin interactions, our models describe an SO(3)-symmetric triangular lattice AF subject to a fluctuating magnetization arising from the FM coupled sublattice. We focus on the classical AFM-FM windmill model and map out the zero- and finite-temperature phase diagram using Monte Carlo simulations and analytical calculations. We discover a state with composite Potts nematic order above the ferrimagnetic three-sublattice up-up-down ground state and relate it to Potts phases in SO(3)-broken Heisenberg and Ising AFMs in external magnetic fields. Finally, we show that the biquadratic exchange in our model is automatically induced by thermal and quantum fluctuations in the purely bilinear Heisenberg model, easing the requirements for realizing these lattice designs experimentally.
75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
Mirror nucleon removal reactions in p-shell nuclei
Nucleon removal reactions have been shown to be an effective tool for studying the single particle structure of nuclei. This work continues efforts to experimentally probe and benchmark the reaction and structure models used to calculate the removal reaction cross sections when using microscopic nuclear structure inputs. Here, three different single nucleon removal reactions were performed, from p -shell nuclei with masses A = 7, 9, and 10. The residual nuclei from the reactions were detected in coincidence with γ rays to determine partial cross sections to individual final states. The eikonal direct-reaction model is combined with overlap functions and residual nucleus densities from microscopic, variational Monte Carlo calculations to provide consistent nuclear structure input to the partial cross section calculations. Comparisons of measured and calculated cross sections, including for mirror reactions, are presented. The analysis of the partial cross sections leading to the ground states shows a similar behavior to the one observed from analyses of inclusive cross sections using shell model nuclear structure input: the theoretical description of the removal process is in better agreement with the data when removing weakly bound nucleons, than when removing well-bound ones. The two mirror reaction pairs presented here show consistent results between the respective members of the pairs. The results obtained for the population of the excited states, however, show a systematically different trend that appears connected to the structure part of the calculation. Additional cases are needed to better understand the respective roles of structure and dynamical effects in the deviations.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Complex orders and chirality in the classical Kitaev-Γ model
It is well recognized that the low-energy physics of many Kitaev materials is governed by two dominant energy scales, the Ising-type Kitaev coupling 𝐾 and the symmetric off-diagonal Γ coupling. An understanding of the interplay between these two scales is therefore the natural starting point toward a quantitative description that includes subdominant perturbations that are inevitably present in real materials. This study focuses on the classical 𝐾−Γ model on the honeycomb lattice, with a specific emphasis on the region 𝐾< 0 and Γ > 0 , which is the most relevant for the available materials and which remains enigmatic in both quantum and classical limits, despite much effort. We employ large-scale Monte Carlo simulations on specially designed finite-size clusters and unravel the presence of a complex multisublattice magnetic order in a wide region of the phase diagram, whose structure is characterized in detail. We show that this order can be quantified in terms of a coarse-grained scalar-chirality order, featuring a counterrotating modulation on the two spin sublattices. Here, we also provide a comparison to previous studies and discuss the impact of quantum fluctuations on the phase diagram.
75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
Antiferromagnetic transitions of Dirac fermions in three dimensions
We use determinant quantum Monte Carlo simulations to study the role of electron-electron interactions on three-dimensional (3D) Dirac fermions based on the π-flux model on a cubic lattice. We show that the Hubbard interaction drives the 3D Dirac semimetal to an antiferromagnetic (AF) insulator only above a finite critical interaction strength and the long-range AF order persists up to a finite temperature. We evaluate the critical interaction strength and temperatures using finite-size scaling of the spin structure factor. The critical behaviors are consistent with the (3+1)-dimensional Gross-Neveu universality class for the quantum critical point and 3D Heisenberg universality class for the thermal phase transitions. We further investigate correlation effects in the birefringent Dirac fermion system. It is found that the critical interaction strength U c is decreased by reducing the velocity of the Dirac cone, quantifying the effect of velocity on the critical interaction strength in 3D Dirac fermion systems. Our findings unambiguously uncover correlation effects in 3D Dirac fermions and may be observed using ultracold atoms in an optical lattice.
75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
Development of a high-fidelity multi-physics coupling between MCNP6.2 and CTF4.0 for VVER applications
Ensuring system safety in the design, licensing, and operation phases is a priority in the nuclear industry. Performing extensive, full-scale reactor safety experiments is often prohibitive due to the large associated costs. Computational simulations offer an alternative safety analysis method, typically with significant cost reductions. Recent high-level developments in technology and increased availability of computational resources have allowed the development of high-fidelity, high-resolution multi-physics coupled codes. Such developments may be used to generate reference models for deterministic core calculations. Under this framework, the high-fidelity continuous energy Monte Carlo-based neutron transport code MCNP6.2 was coupled externally with the state-of-the-art thermal-hydraulics subchannel code, CTF4.0 for VVER (Water-Water Energetic Reactor) applications. A VVER-1000 fuel assembly model was used to demonstrate the capability of the coupled code. The converged coupled solution is compared to initial results, consisting of the first MCNP evaluation and first CTF evaluation after initialization. The VVER-1000 type assembly results are compared to other evaluations of the same assembly model. The findings indicate good agreement with expectations and reference cases, where available. The initial results of the coupled MCNP6.2/CTF4.0 calculations at the assembly level for steady-state calculations are presented in this study, which may support future work toward high-fidelity coupled full-core modeling capabilities. The multi-physics model may be further improved, enhanced, and expanded for both cycle depletion and transient applications. Such a multi-physics system will also be applicable to the VVER-1200 and other triangular lattice designs and support their deployment and operation safely and economically. (authors)
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗