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Results for “Measurement uncertainty”

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DOE OSTI2025

One Galaxy Sample to Rule Them All: Halo Occupation Distribution Modeling of DES Year 3 Source Galaxies

Abstract For the joint analysis of second-order weak-lensing and galaxy clustering statistics, so-called 3 × 2 analyses, the selection and characterization of optimal galaxy samples is a major area of research. One promising choice is to use the same galaxy sample as lenses and sources, which reduces the systematics parameter space that describes the uncertainties related to galaxy samples. Such a “lens-equal-source” analysis significantly improves the self-calibration of photo- z systematics, leading to improved cosmological constraints. With the aim of enabling a lens-equal-source analysis on small scales, we investigate the halo–galaxy connection of DES Year 3 source galaxies. We develop a technique to construct mock source galaxy populations by matching COSMOS/UltraVISTA photometry to U niverse M achine galaxies. These mocks predict a source halo occupation distribution (HOD) that exhibits significant redshift evolution, nontrivial central incompleteness, and galaxy assembly bias. We produce multiple realizations of mock source galaxies drawn from the U niverse M achine posterior, with added uncertainties in the measured Dark Energy Survey photometry and galaxy shapes. We fit a modified HOD formalism to these realizations to produce priors on the galaxy–halo connection for cosmological analyses. We additionally train an emulator that predicts this HOD to ∼2% accuracy from redshift z = 0.1−1.3 that models the dependence of this HOD on (1) observational uncertainties in galaxy size and photometry and (2) uncertainties in the U niverse M achine predictions.

Salcedo, Andrés N. (ORCID:000000031420527X)↗

NASA NTRS1994

Spatially resolved optical and near-infrared spectroscopy of the low-metallicity galaxy UGC 4483

UGC 4483 is a dwarf irregular galaxy in the M81 group. Narrow-band imaging has revealed an H II region in UGC 4483 with an H alpha flux approximately = 1 x 10 (exp - 13) ergs/sq cm/s. Optical and near-infrared spectroscopy of this H ll region yields He, N, O, Ne, and S abundances for the interstellar matter (ISM) in this galaxy. The spectra were acquired with several different telescope/instrument combinations in order to assess the quality of the derived uncertainties. With oxygen abundance of 3.3 x 10 (exp -5) (12 + log (O/H) = 7.5), this galaxy is similar to GR 8 and among the most metal poor dwarf irregulars known to date. However, the H II region in UGC 4483 has high excitation and higher surface brightness than GR 8, allowing very accurate abundance estimates. The N/O ratio is 3%, in good agreement with other low-metallicity dwarf galaxies. The S/O abundance ratio in UGC 4483 is close to the solar ratio, consistent with results for I Zw 18 and other low-metallicity dwarf irregulars. A He/H abundance of 0.079 +/- 0.002 is derived from observations of the lambda 6678 He ll emission line. A comparison of observations obtained with different telescopes and with the same telescope on different nights supports our relatively small estimated uncertainty in this measurement. We determine that the neutral helium fraction is insignificant through both direct observations of the He(+)/H(+) ratio across the nebula and through photoionization modeling. This results in a helium mass fraction of 0.239 +/- 0.006, consistent with the most recent theoretical and observational determinations of the primordial helium abundance. We also discuss remaining systematic uncertainties in the calculation of the primordial helium abundance

Skillman, Evan D.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Results from the 1995 Stratospheric Ozone Profile Intercomparison at Mauna Loa (MLO3)

In August 1995 multiple instruments that measure the stratospheric ozone vertical distribution were intercompared at the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, under the auspices of the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change. The instruments included two UV lidar systems, one from JPL and the other from Goddard Space Flight Center, ECC balloon-sondes, a ground-based microwave instrument, Umkehr measurements, and a new ground-based FTIR instrument. The MLS instrument on the UARS satellite provided correlative profiles of ozone, and there was one close overpass of the SAGE II instrument. The results show that much better consistency among instruments is being achieved than even a few years ago, usually to within the instrument uncertainties. The different measurement techniques in this comparison agree to within +/-10% at almost all altitudes, and in the 20 km to 45 km region most agreed within +/-5%. The results show that the current generation of lidars are capable of accurate measurement of the ozone profile to a maximum altitude of 50 km. SAGE agreed well with both lidar and balloon-sonde down to at least 17 km. The ground-based microwave measurement agreed with other measurements from 22 km to above 50 km. One minor source of disagreement continues to be the pressure-altitude conversion needed to compare a measurement of ozone density versus altitude with a measurement of ozone mixing ratio versus pressure.

McPeters, R. D.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Conserving Land–Atmosphere Synthesis Suite (CLASS)

Accurate estimates of terrestrial water and energy cycle components are needed to better understand climate processes and improve models’ ability to simulate future change. Various observational estimates are available for the individual budget terms; however, these typically show inconsistencies when combined in a budget. In this work, a Conserving Land–Atmosphere Synthesis Suite (CLASS) of estimates of simultaneously balanced surface water and energy budget components is developed. Individual CLASS variable datasets, where possible, 1) combine a range of existing variable product estimates, and hence overcome the limitations of estimates from a single source; 2) are observationally constrained with in situ measurements; 3) have uncertainty estimates that are consistent with their agreement with in situ observations; and 4) are consistent with each other by being able to solve the water and energy budgets simultaneously. First, available datasets of a budget variable are merged by implementing a weighting method that accounts both for the ability of datasets to match in situ measurements and the error covariance between datasets. Then, the budget terms are adjusted by applying an objective variational data assimilation technique (DAT) that enforces the simultaneous closure of the surface water and energy budgets linked through the equivalence of evapotranspiration and latent heat. Comparing component estimates before and after applying the DAT against in situ measurements of energy fluxes and streamflow showed that modified estimates agree better with in situ observations across various metrics, but also revealed some inconsistencies between water budget terms in June over the higher latitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1990

Measurement of structure motion by means of a moving light sheet

The elaboration of an optical system which measures the displacement and velocity of large flexible space structures is reviewed. The motion-measuring system, comprised of a laser, optics, motorized mirror, two photodiodes and electronics, is designed to allow feedback for configuration control of flexible structures. A motor or scanner is employed to sweep the light sheet. The range of motion was shown to be 2 inches, and information was received at a rate of 30 Hz. The uncertainty in displacement measurement was better than +0.01 inch from a distance of 16 feet. The results are considered to be very good for two scanning light sheet systems. Higher sample rates and a more constant speed would improve the rotating mirror option, and the accuracy and range of the scanning mirror option could be upgraded as well. Both setups are shown to be viable noncontact measuring methods for the displacement and velocity of large space structures.

Tcheng, Ping↗

NASA NTRS1997

Estimating the Uncertainty in Passive-Microwave Rain-Retrievals

Current passive-microwave rain-retrieval methods are largely based on databases built off-line using cloud models. The vertical distribution of hydrometeors within the cloud has a large impact on upwelling brightness temperatures ([31,[5]). Thus, a forward radiative transfer model can predict off-line the radiance associated with different rain scenarios. To estimate the rain from measured brightness temperatures, one simply looks for the rain scenario whose associated radiances are closest to the measurements. To understand the uncertainties in this process, we first study the dependence of the simulated brightness temperatures on different hydrometeor size distribution (DSD) models. We then analyze the marginal and joint distributions of the radiances observed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite and of those in the databases used in the TRMM rain retrievals. We finally calculate the covariances of the rain profiles and brightness temperatures in the TRMM passive-microwave database and derive a simple parametric model for the conditional uncertainty, given measured radiances. These results are used to characterize the uncertainty inherent in the passive-microwave retrieval.

Coppens, Dorothee↗

NASA NTRS2008

Sources of Differences in On-Orbit Total Solar Irradiance Measurements and Description of Proposed Laboratory Intercomparison

There is a 5 W/sq m (about 0.35 %) difference between current on-orbit Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) measurements. On 18-20 July 2005, a workshop was held at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) in Gaithersburg, Maryland that focused on understanding possible reasons for this difference, through an examination of the instrument designs, calibration approaches, and appropriate measurement equations. The instruments studied in that workshop included the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor III (ACRIM III) on the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor SATellite (ACRIMSAT), the Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) on the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE), the Variability of solar IRradiance and Gravity Oscillations (VIRGO) on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), and the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) on the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS). Presentations for each instrument included descriptions of its design, its measurement equation and uncertainty budget, and the methods used to assess on-orbit degradation. The workshop also included a session on satellite- and ground-based instrument comparisons and a session on laboratory-based comparisons and the application of new laboratory comparison techniques. The workshop has led to investigations of the effects of diffraction and of aperture area measurements on the differences between instruments. In addition, a laboratory-based instrument comparison is proposed that uses optical power measurements (with lasers that underEll the apertures of the TSI instruments), irradiance measurements (with lasers that overfill the apertures of the TSI instrument), and a cryogenic electrical substitution radiometer as a standard for comparing the instruments. A summary of the workshop and an overview of the proposed research efforts are presented here.

Butler, J.J.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Reference Gauging System for a Small-Scale Liquid Hydrogen Tank

A system to accurately weigh the fluid contents of a small-scale liquid hydrogen test tank has been experimentally verified. It is intended for use as a reference or benchmark system when testing lowgravity liquid quantity gauging concepts in the terrestrial environment. The reference gauging system has shown a repeatable measurement accuracy of better than 0.5 percent of the full tank liquid weight. With further refinement, the system accuracy can be improved to within 0.10 percent of full scale. This report describes the weighing system design, calibration, and operational results. Suggestions are given for further refinement of the system. An example is given to illustrate additional sources of uncertainty when mass measurements are converted to volume equivalents. Specifications of the companion test tank and its multi-layer insulation system are provided.

VanDresar, Neil T.↗

NASA NTRS2021

TOI-674b: An oasis in the desert of exo-Neptunes transiting a nearby M dwarf

Context. The NASA mission TESS is currently doing an all-sky survey from space to detect transiting planets around bright stars. As part of the validation process, the most promising planet candidates need to be confirmed and characterized using follow-up observations. Aims. In this article, our aim is to confirm the planetary nature of the transiting planet candidate TOI-674b using spectroscopic and photometric observations. Methods. We use TESS, Spitzer, ground-based light curves, and HARPS spectrograph radial velocity measurements to establish the physical properties of the transiting exoplanet candidate TOI-674b. We perform a joint fit of the light curves and radial velocity time series to measure the mass, radius, and orbital parameters of the candidate. Results. We confirm and characterize TOI-674b, a low-density super-Neptune transiting a nearby M dwarf. The host star (TIC 158588995, V = 14.2 mag, J = 10.3 mag) is characterized by its M2V spectral type with M⋆ = 0.420 ± 0.010 Mꙩ, R⋆ = 0.420 ± 0.013 Rꙩ, and T(eff) = 3514 ± 57 K; it is located at a distance d = 46.16 ± 0.03 pc. Combining the available transit light curves plus radial velocity measurements and jointly fitting a circular orbit model, we find an orbital period of 1.977143 ± 3 × 10^(−6) days, a planetary radius of 5.25 ± 0.17 Rꚛ, and a mass of 23.6 ± 3.3 Mꚛ implying a mean density of ρp =0.91 ± 0.15 g/cu. cm. A non-circular orbit model fit delivers similar planetary mass and radius values within the uncertainties. Given the measured planetary radius and mass, TOI-674b is one of the largest and most massive super-Neptune class planets discovered around an M-type star to date. It is found in the Neptunian desert, and is a promising candidate for atmospheric characterization using the James Webb Space Telescope.

F. Murgas↗

DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Bayesian optimal experiments for uncertain biochemical pathway models

Abstract Pharmacodynamic (PD) models are mathematical models of cellular reaction networks that include drug mechanisms of action. These models are useful for studying predictive therapeutic outcomes of novel drug therapies in silico. However, PD models are known to possess significant uncertainty with respect to constituent parameter data, leading to uncertainty in the model predictions. Furthermore, experimental data to calibrate these models is often limited or unavailable for novel pathways. In this study, we present a Bayesian optimal experimental design approach for improving PD model prediction accuracy. We then apply our method using simulated experimental data to account for uncertainty in hypothetical laboratory measurements. This leads to a probabilistic prediction of drug performance and a quantitative measure of which prospective laboratory experiment will optimally reduce prediction uncertainty in the PD model. The methods proposed here provide a way forward for uncertainty quantification and guided experimental design for models of novel biological pathways.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Iterative Stress Reconstruction Algorithm to Estimate Three-Dimensional Residual Stress Fields in Manufactured Components

Residual stress (RS) significantly impacts the mechanical performance of components. Measurement of RS often provides incomplete data in terms of components of stress and spatial density. Employing such fields in finite element simulations results in significant modification of the field to achieve equilibrium and compatibility among strains. To overcome this, an iterative stress reconstruction algorithm (ISRA) is developed to estimate 3D RS fields that satisfy equilibrium, are stress component-wise complete, and represent the characterized data sampled. An Al 7075-T651 plate and an additively manufactured (AM) A36 steel wall are considered for RS reconstruction using measurement data from the literature. A maximum variation of ~2.5 MPa in the Al plate, and ~10 MPa in the steel wall are observed between the reconstructed and measured stresses. Furthermore, unknown stress components emerge and reach significant magnitudes (upto ~2.3 MPa in the Al plate and ~45 MPa in the AM wall) during ISRA. Indeed, it is found that minor errors in measurement or data processing are eliminated through the physical requirements during ISRA. Employing a reconstructed RS field is hence not just more accurate given its compatibility, but it additionally corrects for minor errors in measurement. Furthermore, it is found that spatially dense measurement data result in convergence with fewer iterations. Finally, although ISRA yields a nonunique solution dependent on boundary conditions, measurement errors, fitting errors, and mesh density, it accommodates for uncertainties and inaccuracies in measurement, as opposed to failing to reach a physically realistic converged solution.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1987

Development of a high temperature thin film static strain gage

The objective is to develop a new thin film resistance strain gage system which will be suitable for use inside gas turbine engines on blades or vanes at temperatures up to 1250 K. These gages are to be capable of making strain measurements to plus or minus 2000 microstrain with total errors of no more than plus or minus 10 percent during a 50 hour period. In addition to survival and stability in this hostile environment, attaining a low temperature coefficient of resistance, of the order of 20 ppm/K or less, is an important goal. This requirement arises from the presently unavoidable uncertainties in the measurement of exact temperatures inside gas turbine engines for use in making corrections for apparent strain.

Hulse, Charles O.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Echo mapping of active galactic nuclei broad-line regions: Fundamental algorithms

We formulate and test a series of algorithms for echo mapping the emission-line regions near active galactic nuclei from measurements of correlated variability in their line and continuum light curves. The linear regularization method (LRM) employs a direct inversion of evenly spaced light-curve data, with a regularization parameter that can be used to control the trade-off between noise and resolution. Matrix formulas express the formal solution as well as its variance and covariance in terms of uncertainties in the measurements. Unlike the maximum-entropy method (MEM), LRM applies to kernels with both positive and negative values, but the results are somewhat limited by ringing effects. A positivity constraint proves effective in controlling the ringing. MEM combines regularization and positivity in a natural way, but similar results are also found using positivity constraints with nonentropic regularization functions. Direct inversions of unevenly sampled light curves require interpolating the noisy data. In this case better results are found by solving for both the continuum light curve and kernel function in a simultaneous fit to the data. Our conclusion is that while echo mapping currently gives ambiguous results, the algorithms are not the limiting factor. Progress depends on efforts to increase the accuracy and completeness of sampling of the observed light curves.

Vio, Roberto↗

NASA NTRS2019

Health Management and Prognostics for Electric Aircraft Powertrain

W and c Any air borne vehicle needs incorporating safety as key parameter of measure, and inclusion of autonomy raises the critical need for safety under autonomous operations. Management of faults and component degradation is key as complexity in autonomous operations grow over the period of time. Therefore, in addition to basic operational requirements, an autonomous electric vehicle should be able to make accurate estimates of its current system health and take the correct decisions to complete its mission successfully. Real-time safety and state-awareness tools are therefore essential for the vehicle to be able to reach its destination in a safe and successful manner. The need for safety assurance and health management capabilities is particularly relevant for aircraft electric propulsion systems, which are relatively new and with limited historical to learn. They are critical systems requiring high power density along with reliability, resilience, efficient management of weight, and operational costs. A model- based fault diagnosis and prognostics approach of complex critical systems can successfully accomplish the safety and state awareness goal for such electric propulsion systems, enabling autonomous decision making capability for safe and efficient operation. To identify critical components in the system a Qualitative Bayesian approach using FMECA is implemented. This requires the assessment of some quantities representing the state of the electric unmanned aerial systems (e-UAS), as well as look-ahead forecasts of such states during the entire flight, presented in form of safety metrics (SM). In-service data and performance data gathered from degraded components sup- ports diagnostic and prognostic methods for these systems, but this data can be difficult to obtain as weight and packaging restrictions reduce redundancy and instrumentation on-board the vehicle. Therefore, an model-based framework should be capable or operating with limited data. In addition to data scarcity, the variability of such complex critical systems re- quires the model-based framework to reason in the presence of uncertainty, such as sensor noise, and modeling imperfections. Quantification of errors and uncertainties in the measured states and quantities is therefore a fundamental step for a precise estimation of such SMs; un-modeled uncertainty may result in erroneous state assessment and un- reliable predictions of future states of e-UAVs. Typical, centralized model-based schemes suffer from inherent disadvantages such as computational complexity, single point of failure, and scalability issues, and therefore may fail in such a complex scenario. This paper presents a methodology for developing a system level diagnostics and prognostics approach using a Qualitative Bayesian FMECA approach along with a formal uncertainty management framework for an e-UAS. In this work we demonstrate the efficacy of the framework to predict effects of sub-system level degradation on vehicle operation incorporating uncertainty management to predict future behavior under different operating conditions.

Kulkarni, Chetan↗

NASA NTRS2001

The NO(x)-HNO3 System in the Lower Stratosphere: Insights from In Situ Measurements and Implications of the J(HNO3)-[OH] Relationship

During the 1997 Photochemistry of Ozone Loss in the Arctic Region in Summer (POLARIS) mission, simultaneous in situ observations of NOx and HOx radicals, their precursors, and the radiation field were obtained in the lower stratosphere. We use these observations to evaluate the primary mechanisms that control NOx-HNO3 exchange and to understand their control over the partitioning between NO2 and HNO3 in regions of continuous sunlight. We calculate NOx production (PNOx) and loss (LNOx) in a manner directly constrained by the in situ measurements and current rate constant recommendations, using approaches for representing albedo, overhead O3 and [OH] that reduce model uncertainty. We find a consistent discrepancy of 18% between modeled rates of NOx production and loss (LNOx = 1.18P(sub NOx)), which is within the measurement uncertainty of +/- 27%. The partitioning between NOx production processes is [HNO3 + OH (41 +/- 2)%; HNO3 + hv (59 +/- 2)%] and between NOx loss processes is [NO2 + OH, 90% to >97%; BrONO2 + H2O, 10% to <3%]. The steady-state description of NOx-HNO3 exchange reveals the significant influence of the tight correlation between the photolysis rate of HNO3 and [OH] established by in situ measurements throughout the lower stratosphere. Parametrizing this relationship, we find: (1) the steady-state value of [NO2](sub 24h-avg)/[HNO3] in the continuously sunlit, lower stratosphere is a function only of temperature and number density; and (2) the partitioning of NOx production between HNO3 + OH and HNO3 + hv is nearly constant throughout most of the lower stratosphere. We describe a methodology (functions of latitude, day, temperature, and pressure) for accurately predicting the steady-state value of [NO2](sub 24h-avg)/[HNO3] and the partitioning of NOx production within these regions. The results establish a metric to compare observations of [NO2](sub 24h-avg)/[HNO3] within the continuously sunlit region and provide a simple diagnostic for evaluating the accuracy of models that attempt to describe the coupled NOx-HOx photochemistry in the lower stratosphere.

Perkins, K. K.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Latest rocket measurements of the solar constant

Three rocket flights which carried a payload of absolute radiometers to measure the solar constant with an accuracy of plus or minus 0.5 per cent have been accomplished. Several of the rocket radiometers were duplicates of those aboard the Solar Maximum Mission and Nimbus spacecrafts. The values for the solar constant obtained by the rocket sensors for the three flight dates indicate an increase between the first and latter two flights approximately equivalent to the uncertainty of the measurements. The values for the solar constant for the three flights are 1367, 1372 and 1374 W/sq m.

Duncan, C. H.↗

NASA NTRS1993

In situ measurements of ClO at mid-latitudes: Is there an effect from Mt. Pinatubo?

Observations of ClO from 20 to 60 deg N made before and after the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo are compared for changes which may result from increased sulfate aerosol surface area. Using ozone as a vertical coordinate and examining data at similar latitudes and seasons, elevated abundances of ClO are found at low latitudes (20 to 30 deg N), an effect which decreases with increasing latitude. For the flights compared, there appear to be no differences, within the uncertainty of the measurements, at latitudes poleward of 40 deg N. These results are consistent with the idea that the hydrolysis of N2O5 on sulfate aerosols becomes saturated at moderate aerosol loadings.

Avallone, L. M.↗

NASA NTRS1993

In Situ Measurements of CLO at Mid-Latitudes: Is there an Effect from Mt. Pinatubo?

Avallone, L. M.↗