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At least 1,027 records · Page 57

Detection of non‐native species formed during fibrillization of the myocilin olfactomedin domain

Abstract Glaucoma is a group of neurodegenerative diseases that together are the leading cause of irreversible blindness worldwide. Myocilin‐associated glaucoma is an inherited form of this disease, caused by intracellular aggregation of misfolded mutant myocilin. In vitro, the myocilin C‐terminal olfactomedin domain (OLF), the relevant domain for glaucoma pathogenesis, can be driven to form amyloid‐like fibrils under mild conditions. Here we characterize a species present during in vitro fibrillization. Purified OLF was subjected to fibrillization at concentrations required for downstream electron microscopy imaging and NMR spectroscopy. Additional biophysical techniques, including analytical ultracentrifugation and X‐ray crystallography, were employed to further characterize the multicomponent mixture. Negative stain transmission electron microscopy (TEM) shows a non‐native species reminiscent of known prefibrillar oligomers from other amyloid systems, NMR indicates a minor population of partially misfolded species is present in solution, and cryo‐EM imaging shows two‐dimensional protein arrays. The predominant soluble species remaining in solution after the fibril reaction is natively folded, as evidenced by X‐ray crystallography. In summary, after incubating OLF under fibrillization‐promoting conditions, there is a heterogeneous mixture consisting of soluble folded protein, mature amyloid‐like fibrils, and partially misfolded intermediate species that at present belie additional molecular detail. The characterization of OLF fibrillar species illustrates the challenges associated with developing a comprehensive understanding of the fibrillization process for large, non‐model amyloidogenic proteins.

Scelsi, Hailee F. [School of Chemistry and Biochem↗

Physiological Adaptations to Progressive Endurance Exercise Training in Adult and Aged Rats: Insights from the Molecular Transducers of Physical Activity Consortium (MoTrPAC)

While regular physical activity is a cornerstone of health, wellness, and vitality, the impact of endurance exercise training on molecular signaling within and across tissues remains to be delineated. The Molecular Transducers of Physical Activity Consortium (MoTrPAC) was established to characterize molecular networks underlying the adaptive response to exercise. Here, we describe the endurance exercise training studies undertaken by the Preclinical Animal Sites Studies component of MoTrPAC, in which we sought to develop and implement a standardized endurance exercise protocol in a large cohort of rats. To this end, Adult (6-mo) and Aged (18-mo) female (n = 151) and male (n = 143) Fischer 344 rats were subjected to progressive treadmill training (5 d/wk, ~70%–75% VO 2 max) for 1, 2, 4, or 8 wk; sedentary rats were studied as the control group. A total of 18 solid tissues, as well as blood, plasma, and feces, were collected to establish a publicly accessible biorepository and for extensive omics-based analyses by MoTrPAC. Treadmill training was highly effective, with robust improvements in skeletal muscle citrate synthase activity in as little as 1–2 wk and improvements in maximum run speed and maximal oxygen uptake by 4–8 wk. For body mass and composition, notable age- and sex-dependent responses were observed. This work in mature, treadmill-trained rats represents the most comprehensive and publicly accessible tissue biorepository, to date, and provides an unprecedented resource for studying temporal-, sex-, and age-specific responses to endurance exercise training in a preclinical rat model.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Finding Uncertainties that Cause the Age Dependence of Dose Limits to Be Immature

Space radiation permissible exposure limits (PEL) are intended to set acceptable levels of cancer risks, and avoid any clinical significant non-cancer effects. The 1989 recommendation of the National Council of Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) recommended a strong age dependence of dose limits that departed drastically from the then mature 1970 dose limits recommendations from the National Academy of Science, which were independent of age. In 2000, the NCRP recommended revised limits that showed a similar trend of risk with age to the 1989 report. In this model, the cancer risk per Sv varies by more than 2-fold for ages between 30- and 50-yr. Therefore for galactic cosmic rays exposure, astronaut age has a larger influence on risk then radiation shielding mass or material composition, vehicle propulsion method, or position in the solar cycle. For considering the control of mission costs and resources, the possibility of using astronaut age as a trade variable in mission design could be considered. However, the uncertainties in describing the age dependence on risk have not been fully explored. We discuss biological factors that influence the age dependence of radiation risks, including susceptibility, expression and latency, and radiation quality. These factors depend not only on the individual s age, but also their genetic sensitivity and interaction with other environmental factors. Epidemiological data is limited in describing the age dependence on risk. The 2005, BEIR VII report recommends an age dependence for cancer risk attributable solely to the life-table disagreeing strongly with the NCRP model. However, BEIR VII also noted the limited power of human data for concomitantly describing both age and age after exposure dependences of cancer risks. Many experimental studies have shown that high LET radiation (e.g., high charge and energy (HZE) nuclei and neutrons) display reduced latency compared to low LET radiation, suggesting distinct biological factors are important. We discuss potential molecular mechanisms that would influence the age dependence of radiation risks. A probability distribution function for the uncertainties in age-dependence of risk models is described and predictions for Mars missions discussed. Our report suggests that theoretical considerations based on new experimental studies are needed to ensure the correct age dependence in space radiation risk models and the resulting Astronaut PEL.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

Digital Prototyping Methods to Enable Product Development Analysis Cycle Compression in Aerospace Systems

Historically, the product development life cycle (spanning from origination of a systems concept to initial delivery or fielding) for large-scale aerospace systems is 10-25 years. Examples of recent programs exhibiting this timeline are the Space Shuttle (13 years), , International Space Station (18 years), NASA Hubble telescope (16 years), USAF F-35 Strike Fighter (22 years), Missile Defense Agency THAAD (21 years), USAF V-22 Osprey (26 years), USAF B-2 Spirt (19 years), US Army RAH-66 Comanche (22 years, cancelled prior to fielding), James Webb Space Telescope (25 years), Space Launch System (10 years). This list illustrates the challenges of developing and fielding a modern integrated multi-disciplinary aerospace system. These development timelines are often preceded by significant research and development programs and followed by multiple increments, blocks, or spirals to reach planned operational capability. In the modern era of aerospace system acquisition, there is significant pressure to reduce system development timelines to meet system objectives and enable competitiveness in the current industry and landscape. Across the aerospace industry, a range of rapid acquisition and prototyping programs are seeking to achieve system development within timelines considerably less than 10 years. Notably, in September of 2019, NASA issued a solicitation for the development and demonstration of a Human Landing System (HLS) to deliver humans to the lunar surface by 2024 (5 years) and for the development and demonstration of a more sustainable HLS by 2026 (7 years). Lengthy product development cycle timelines are a product of multiple factors ranging from programmatic, sociological, technical, and systems engineering issues. New approaches in systems engineering provide new ways to enable these compressed development timelines. These approaches employ expanded application of advanced systems engineering methods and cross-cutting digital tools to accelerate system development, utilizing digital prototyping to connect maturing sub-system or component technologies into system or system-of-systems hardware prototypes. Approaches such as the use of system integrating physics relationships to reduce the number of design analysis cycle iterations and state analysis modeling to reduce necessary software testing (and improving coverage of system execution scenarios) represent steps forward in reducing the engineering time needed to field new systems. In addition to cost, schedule and performance benefits, expanded digital exploration and demonstration reduce risk in live system test and demonstration. This incremental demonstration approach, where digital prototyping and demonstration leads and informs full system test and demonstration, could be more important for space applications because of the increased difficulty of test and demonstration of space systems and architectures. The Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at Marshall Space Flight Center merges traditional multi-disciplinary concept definition methods with modern, cross-cutting systems engineering concepts to enable iterative design and analysis of space architectures and systems through coordinated, strategic management of human capital, technical processes, and technology. This paper provides an overview of that approach, including recent examples and a strategic path forward to enabling continued reduction of aerospace system product development life cycles.

Michael D Watson↗

Comparative Techno-Economic Analysis of Available Feedstocks for High-Temperature Conversion: Whole Tree Thinnings and Mature Pine Residues

The techno-economic and life cycle implications of utilizing low-cost feedstocks in a high temperature conversion process are of great interest. Here, we investigate the conversion cost impacts of two underutilized feedstocks from the commercial pine industry: 13-year-old whole trees, representing trees removed for the purpose of precommercial thinning, and 23-year-old pine residues, representing a waste stream produced from the deconstruction of mature trees for other purposes. Experimental fast pyrolysis (FP) yields for each feedstock were adjusted to a catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) basis and used to estimate process economics by employing published correlations based on rigorous techno-economic modeling. These correlations were used in tandem with results from supply and preprocessing analyses to evaluate the field-to-fuel economics of each feedstock. A small difference in minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) was found between the conversion costs for the two feedstocks, with 23-year-old residues demonstrating a net benefit of $0.27 per gasoline gallon equivalent (GGE) compared to the 13- year-old whole tree thinnings, driven primarily by feedstock supply costs. This suggests that both whole tree thinnings and pine residues may be viable feedstock options for CFP conversion. Life cycle inventories (LCIs) were also generated for each case, enabling a field-to-fuel quantification of the cost and carbon cycle associated with each feedstock.

catalytic fast pyrolysis↗

High Yield, Economical and Environmentally Benign Production of Rare Earth Elements from Coal Ash (Phase II Final Summary Report)

Fly ash stored in landfills and ponds across the United States is an attractive, abundant domestic resource for the cost-effective recovery of rare earth elements (REE) and other critical minerals (CM). Physical Sciences Inc. (PSI) and its team members, Winner Water Services (WWS) and University of Kentucky/Center for Applied Energy Research (UK/CAER) successfully executed a multiphase program that developed technologies and their implementation in a pilot plant. We demonstrated plant operations for cost-effective and environmentally-friendly production of rare earth element oxide (REO) concentrates, and the critical minerals scandium and aluminum (in the forms of salts or oxide products), from coal ash. We also constructed and demonstrated a research-scale (0.5 kg/day) micropilot facility to validate the key physical and chemical processing operations, predict yields, and troubleshoot process bottlenecks. The project team then designed, constructed and operated two decoupled pilot plants: (1) an operational pilot plant for physical separation processes with capacity of 0.4 metric tons per day (tpd), where we optimized processes to produce selected ash fractions as the feedstock for chemical processing and as valuable byproducts such as cenospheres, magnetic ash, and secondary fuel carbon, and (2) an operational pilot plant for chemical ash processing with a capacity of 0.5 tpd that developed optimized processes for the production of: (a) REO concentrates, (b) critical minerals (Sc, Al), and (c) beneficiated ash as a valuable byproduct suitable for cement applications. In Phase I, the project team (with Equinox Chemicals in place of WWS) developed and demonstrated the feasibility of the physical and chemical separation processes, developed the design of a pilot plant, and began the development of a preliminary techno-economic model. In the baseline (initial) Phase II program, the project team developed and demonstrated the above pilot scale plant, producing salable REE concentrates, including Y and Sc (REYSc), plus commercially viable byproducts, using environmentally safe and high-yield physical and chemical enrichment processes. The team successfully demonstrated chemical pilot design, construction, shakedown, and operations of the plant. We produced the Phase II deliverable REYSc concentrate ((50 g of >60 wt.% purity REYSc salts on elemental basis), generated the feed for the Phase II follow-on program, identified processing challenges for future optimizations, and refined the techno-economic model. In the Phase II follow-on program, the project team: (1) developed and demonstrated processes to increase the REE amount by 3X (content basis) and convert the Phase II REE salt mixture to an oxide mixture, (2) produced/delivered >38 g of REO mixture with >85 wt.% purity (elemental basis); (3) developed processes to recover critical minerals scandium and aluminum from intermediate streams; (4) produced/delivered > 1 g of scandium salt mixture with >85 wt. % purity (elemental basis); (5) produced/delivered > 100 g of aluminum oxide type material with >70% wt. purity (elemental basis); and (6) updated the techno-economic model from the baseline Phase II program to assess CAPEX and OPEX of a commercial operation. This program has developed extensive databases on process chemistry, unit operations, plant engineering, and techno-economics that will enable further scale-up toward commercial plant design. Specific future developments will be focused on achieving dramatic savings in energy, reagent usage, and operating costs. The combined results will contribute significantly for maturing the technologies of REE recovery from coal byproducts and promote the establishment of domestic REE and CM supply chains.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Active Mirror Predictive and Requirements Verification Software (AMP-ReVS)

This software is designed to predict large active mirror performance at various stages in the fabrication lifecycle of the mirror. It was developed for 1-meter class powered mirrors for astronomical purposes, but is extensible to other geometries. The package accepts finite element model (FEM) inputs and laboratory measured data for large optical-quality mirrors with active figure control. It computes phenomenological contributions to the surface figure error using several built-in optimization techniques. These phenomena include stresses induced in the mirror by the manufacturing process and the support structure, the test procedure, high spatial frequency errors introduced by the polishing process, and other process-dependent deleterious effects due to light-weighting of the mirror. Then, depending on the maturity of the mirror, it either predicts the best surface figure error that the mirror will attain, or it verifies that the requirements for the error sources have been met once the best surface figure error has been measured. The unique feature of this software is that it ties together physical phenomenology with wavefront sensing and control techniques and various optimization methods including convex optimization, Kalman filtering, and quadratic programming to both generate predictive models and to do requirements verification. This software combines three distinct disciplines: wavefront control, predictive models based on FEM, and requirements verification using measured data in a robust, reusable code that is applicable to any large optics for ground and space telescopes. The software also includes state-of-the-art wavefront control algorithms that allow closed-loop performance to be computed. It allows for quantitative trade studies to be performed for optical systems engineering, including computing the best surface figure error under various testing and operating conditions. After the mirror manufacturing process and testing have been completed, the software package can be used to verify that the underlying requirements have been met.

Basinger, Scott A.↗

Completing below-ground carbon budgets for pastures, recovering forests, and mature forests of Amazonia

This progress report covers the following efforts initiated for the year: year-round monthly soil CO2 flux measurements were started in both primary and secondary forests and in managed and degraded pastures; root sorting and weighing has begun and all four ecosystems at Paragominas have been analyzed through samples; regional modeling of soil water dynamics and minimum rooting depth has been done and the RADAMBRASIL soils database has been digitized and a 20 year record of the precipitation for the region has been produced, along with a hydrological ('bucket-tipping') model that will run within a GIS framework; prototype tension lysimeters have been designed and installed in soil pits to begin assessing the importance of DOC as a source of organic matter in deep soils; and many publications, listed in this document, have resulted from this year's research. Two of the papers published are included with this annual report document.

Davidson, Eric A.↗

Verifying Interfaces and Generating Interface Control Documents for the Alignment and Phasing Subsystem of the Thirty Meter Telescope from a System Model in SysML

This paper presents a novel method for verifying interfaces and generating interface control documents (ICDs) from a system model in SysMLTM. In systems and software engineering, ICDs are key artifacts that specify the interface(s) to a system or subsystem, and are used to control the documentation of these interfaces. ICDs enable independent teams to develop connecting systems that use the specified interfaces. In the context of the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT), interface control documents also act as contracts for delivered subsystems. The Alignment and Phasing system (APS) is one such subsystem. APS is required to implement a particular interface, and formulates requirements for the interfaces to be provided by other components of TMT that interface with APS. As the design of APS matures, these interfaces are frequently refined, making it necessary for related ICDs to be updated. In current systems engineering practice, ICDs are maintained manually. This manual maintenance can lead to a loss in integrity and accuracy of the documents over time, resulting in the documents no longer reflecting the actual state of the interfaces of a system. We show how a system model in SysMLTM can be used to generate ICDs automatically. The method is demonstrated through application to interface control documents pertaining to APS. Specifically, we apply the method to the interface of APS to the primary mirror control system (M1CS) and of APS to the Telescope Control System (TCS). We evaluate the newly introduced method through application to two case studies.

Troy, Mitchell↗

Optimal design and integration of decentralized electrochemical energy storage with renewables and fossil plants

Increasing renewable energy requires improving the electricity grid flexibility. Existing measures include power plant cycling and grid-level energy storage, but they incur high operational and investment costs. Using a systems modeling and optimization framework, we study the integration of electrochemical energy storage with individual power plants at various renewable penetration levels. Furthermore, our techno-economic analysis includes both Li-ion and NaS batteries to encompass different technology maturity levels. A California case-study indicates localized integration to be cost-effective for greater grid flexibility. Li-ion batteries can mitigate the residual demand fluctuations of small to medium-sized plants, while NaS batteries would be best-suited for larger storage with higher renewable penetration. Overall, the battery-enabled renewable integration could reduce the unmet grid demand by 75%, the renewable curtailment by 58%, and the CO 2 emission intensity by 16% while including the life cycle emissions of the battery and the renewable farm. Our scenario-based analysis also indicates that rather than replacing all fossil power plants, it is more economical to combine batteries and renewables with individual fossil plants to achieve a clean energy grid.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Holo-Omics disentangle drought response and biotic interactions among plant, endophyte and pathogen

Holo-omics provide a novel opportunity to study the interactions among fungi from different functional guilds in host plants in field conditions. We address the entangled responses of plant pathogenic and endophytic fungi associated with sorghum when droughted through the assembly of the most abundant fungal, endophyte genome from rhizospheric metagenomic sequences followed by a comparison of its metatranscriptome with the host plant metabolome and transcriptome. The rise in relative abundance of endophytic Acremonium persicinum (operational taxonomic unit 5 (OTU5)) in drought co-occurs with a rise in fungal membrane dynamics and plant metabolites, led by ethanolamine, a key phospholipid membrane component. The negative association between endophytic A. persicinum (OTU5) and plant pathogenic fungi co-occurs with a rise in expression of the endophyte's biosynthetic gene clusters coding for secondary compounds. Endophytic A. persicinum (OTU5) and plant pathogenic fungi are negatively associated under preflowering drought but not under postflowering drought, likely a consequence of variation in fungal fitness responses to changes in the availability of water and niche space caused by plant maturation over the growing season. Our findings suggest that the dynamic biotic interactions among host, beneficial and harmful microbiota in a changing environment can be disentangled by a blending of field observation, laboratory validation, holo-omics and ecological modelling.

Chen, Peilin↗

Modeling Monthly Nitrate Concentration in a Karst Spring with and without Discrete Conduit Flow

Understanding the coupled continuum pipe-flow framework for modeling contaminant transport in karst systems is critical for protecting water resources therein. This study simulated point and non-point source nitrate concentration in a karst spring and investigated the results generated from the flow and transport model with and without discrete conduit flow. CFPv2 and CMT3D models were integrated to address the changes in nitrate concentration at a monthly scale in a karst spring, and the results were compared with that from an equivalent porous media (EPM) model with high-hydraulic conductivity (K) zones set in the main karstified area to represent conduits. The results show that the CFPv2+CMT3D model is able to describe well the recession of nitrate concentration in spring discharge, and the relatively larger deviation (slower nitrate recession) from the observed trend for the EPM model is probably a result of the limitation of utilizing high hydraulic conductivity cells to represent conduit. Moreover, simulated hydraulic heads in poorly karstified areas from the two models both show slight differences from the observations (the head RMSE values of calibration/validation for CFPv2 and MODFLOW models are 0.16 m/0.25 m and 0.26 m/0.17 m, respectively), indicating the inclusion of conduits may not affect the simulation considerably, and the lower the proportion of karstic area, the slight effects brought from the inclusion of conduits in the model. For highly karstified areas, the CFPv2+CMT3D model could provide more accurate results (head RMSE of calibration/validation for CFPv2 and MODFLOW are 0.22 m/0.06 and 0.52 m/0.47 m, respectively), showing the coupled continuum pipe-flow framework may be more appropriate for applying to highly and maturely karstified areas where the variations in the behavior of flow and contaminant transport are more affected by turbulent flow regime.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The distribution in lunar soil of carbon released by pyrolysis

The carbon contents of various lunar soil particle types and sieve fractions of Apollo 15 and 16 samples have been determined by the pyrolysis method. The mineral, glass, and high-grade breccia fragments in the soils examined contain relatively low amounts of carbon (approximately 8, 25, and 25 microg C/g sample respectively in 149-250 micron grains). Most low-grade breccias and all agglutinates examined have high carbon contents (approximately 52 and 80 microg C/g sample respectively), and agglutinate abundance is indicative of the carbon content and maturity of a soil. The distribution of carbon with respect to particle size in mature soils generally reveals a minimum in carbon content at about 100 micron particle diameter. At smaller particle diameters, carbon content is directly proportional to particle surface area and therefore increases with the ratio (surface area)/(particle mass). A model relating the cycle of comminution and aggregation of soil particles to the redistribution of surface implanted carbon is developed.

Desmarais, D. J.↗

Computational Aeroelasticity: Success, Progress, Challenge

The formal term Computational Aeroelasticity (CAE) has only been recently adopted to describe aeroelastic analysis methods coupling high-level computational fluid dynamics codes with structural dynamics techniques. However, the general field of aeroelastic computations has enjoyed a rich history of development and application since the first hand-calculations performed in the mid 1930 s. This paper portrays a much broader definition of Computational Aeroelasticity; one that encompasses all levels of aeroelastic computation from the simplest linear aerodynamic modeling to the highest levels of viscous unsteady aerodynamics, from the most basic linear beam structural models to state-of-the-art Finite Element Model (FEM) structural analysis. This paper is not written as a comprehensive history of CAE, but rather serves to review the development and application of aeroelastic analysis methods. It describes techniques and example applications that are viewed as relatively mature and accepted, the "successes" of CAE. Cases where CAE has been successfully applied to unique or emerging problems, but the resulting techniques have proven to be one-of-a-kind analyses or areas where the techniques have yet to evolve into a routinely applied methodology are covered as "progress" in CAE. Finally the true value of this paper is rooted in the description of problems where CAE falls short in its ability to provide relevant tools for industry, the so-called "challenges" to CAE.

Schuster, David M.↗

AST Critical Propulsion and Noise Reduction Technologies for Future Commercial Subsonic Engines Area of Interest 1.0: Reliable and Affordable Control Systems

The General Electric Reliable and Affordable Controls effort under the NASA Advanced Subsonic Technology (AST) Program has designed, fabricated, and tested advanced controls hardware and software to reduce emissions and improve engine safety and reliability. The original effort consisted of four elements: 1) a Hydraulic Multiplexer; 2) Active Combustor Control; 3) a Variable Displacement Vane Pump (VDVP); and 4) Intelligent Engine Control. The VDVP and Intelligent Engine Control elements were cancelled due to funding constraints and are reported here only to the state they progressed. The Hydraulic Multiplexing element developed and tested a prototype which improves reliability by combining the functionality of up to 16 solenoids and servo-valves into one component with a single electrically powered force motor. The Active Combustor Control element developed intelligent staging and control strategies for low emission combustors. This included development and tests of a Controlled Pressure Fuel Nozzle for fuel sequencing, a Fuel Multiplexer for individual fuel cup metering, and model-based control logic. Both the Hydraulic Multiplexer and Controlled Pressure Fuel Nozzle system were cleared for engine test. The Fuel Multiplexer was cleared for combustor rig test which must be followed by an engine test to achieve full maturation.

Myers, William↗

Predictive Thermal Control (PTC) Technology to Enable Thermally Stable Telescopes: Year Three Status

The Predictive Thermal Control (PTC) project is a multiyear effort initiated in Fiscal Year 2017, to mature the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of technologies required to enable ultra-thermally-stable ultraviolet/optical/infrared (UVOIR) space telescope primary-mirror assemblies for ultra-high-contrast observations of exoplanets. PTC has three objectives: validate thermal optical performance models, derive thermal system stability specifications, and demonstrate predictive thermal control. This paper reviews recent and previous accomplishments

H Philip Stahl↗

Estimate Early and Estimate Often: How Your Concurrent Engineering Design Team Can Bootstrap Your Organizations Programmatic Capabilities

What do you do when it is necessary to generate reasonable cost estimates at the earliest Concept Maturity Levels and you have never flown any similar missions before? This paper describes the current and future Team X and A-Team cost processes and methods, how they are being used to expand our data frontiers, cost modelling capabilities and how this enables the ability to estimate early and estimate often.

Hihn, Jairus↗

Valuation of Indonesian catastrophic earthquake bonds with generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model

Indonesia is a country with high risk of earthquake, because of its position in the border of earth’s tectonic plate. An earthquake could raise very high amount of damage, loss, and other economic impacts. So, Indonesia needs a mechanism for transferring the risk of earthquake from the government or the (reinsurance) company, as it could collect enough money for implementing the rehabilitation and reconstruction program. One of the mechanisms is by issuing catastrophe bond, ‘act-of-God bond’, or simply CAT bond. A catastrophe bond issued by a special-purpose-vehicle (SPV) company, and then sold to the investor. The revenue from this transaction is joined with the money (premium) from the sponsor company and then invested in other product. If a catastrophe happened before the time-of-maturity, cash flow from the SPV to the investor will discounted or stopped, and the cash flow is paid to the sponsor company to compensate their loss because of this catastrophe event. When we consider the earthquake only, the amount of discounted cash flow could determine based on the earthquake’s magnitude. A case study with Indonesian earthquake magnitude data show that the probability of maximum magnitude can model by generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. In pricing this catastrophe bond, we assumed stochastic interest rate that following the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model. We develop formulas for pricing three types of catastrophe bond, namely zero coupon bonds, ‘coupon only at risk’ bond, and ‘principal and coupon at risk’ bond. Relationship between price of the catastrophe bond and CIR model’s parameter, GEV’s parameter, percentage of coupon, and discounted cash flow rule then explained via Monte Carlo simulation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗