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At least 1,027 records · Page 57

Long-term patterns of post-fire harvest diverge among ownerships in the Pacific West, U.S.A.

Abstract Post-fire harvest (PFH) is a forest management practice designed to salvage value from burned timber, mitigate safety hazards from dead trees, reduce long-term fuels, and prepare sites for replanting. Despite public controversy and extensive ecological research, little is known about how much PFH occurs on private and public lands in the U.S. Pacific West, or how practices changed with shifting forest policy and increasing area burned over the last three decades. We mapped PFH across 2.2M burned hectares in California, Oregon, and Washington between 1986-2017 and used time series intervention analysis to compare trends in area, rate (% of burned area harvested), and mean patch size between private (0.5M ha) and federal (1.6M ha) forest land and across a gradient of burn severity. Harvest rates varied by ownership (4.9% federal, 18.6% private, 8.0% overall), and practices evolved and diverged over the study period. PFH area and rate declined across all ownerships in the mid-1990s during a period of reduced fire activity. As area burned increased between the early 2000s and late 2010s, PFH area rebounded and surpassed late-1980s levels, while rates remained relatively low. On federal lands, PFH practices shifted in the early-to-mid 1990s towards lower rates (10.3% to 3.8%) and smaller patches (6.0 to 3.3 ha), following policy changes and increased litigation. PFH rates on federal lands decreased at all levels of burn severity, with the largest decreases (6.2% to 1.2%) in forests with low tree mortality (i.e. fire refugia). Conversely, private PFH rates and mean patch sizes more than doubled in forests burned at very low-to-moderate severity. Our results highlight how PFH practices have shifted with policy, socio-economic pressure, and increasing area burned over 31 years in the Pacific West. A similar area of post-fire harvest is now dispersed over larger fires, with practices diverging substantially between ownerships.

Zuspan, Aaron (ORCID:0000000315833710)↗

Integrating multimodal data through interpretable heterogeneous ensembles

Motivation: Integrating multimodal data represents an effective approach to predicting biomedical characteristics, such as protein functions and disease outcomes. However, existing data integration approaches do not sufficiently address the heterogeneous semantics of multimodal data. In particular, early and intermediate approaches that rely on a uniform integrated representation reinforce the consensus among the modalities but may lose exclusive local information. The alternative late integration approach that can address this challenge has not been systematically studied for biomedical problems. Results: We propose Ensemble Integration (EI) as a novel systematic implementation of the late integration approach. EI infers local predictive models from the individual data modalities using appropriate algorithms and uses heterogeneous ensemble algorithms to integrate these local models into a global predictive model. We also propose a novel interpretation method for EI models. We tested EI on the problems of predicting protein function from multimodal STRING data and mortality due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from multimodal data in electronic health records. We found that EI accomplished its goal of producing significantly more accurate predictions than each individual modality. It also performed better than several established early integration methods for each of these problems. The interpretation of a representative EI model for COVID-19 mortality prediction identified several disease-relevant features, such as laboratory test (blood urea nitrogen and calcium) and vital sign measurements (minimum oxygen saturation) and demographics (age). These results demonstrated the effectiveness of the EI framework for biomedical data integration and predictive modeling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Spectral induced polarization monitoring of induced calcite precipitation in subsurface sediments

Co-precipitation of contaminants within the crystalline structure of calcite is a promising natural attenuation or remedial technology being considered at contaminated sites. We explore the sensitivity of the spectral induced polarization (SIP) method to induced calcite precipitation in natural sediments as a path forward to non-invasively monitor these sites. We performed time-lapse column experiments using phased (I-IV) injections over 40 days on natural sediments from the Hanford Site (Washington State, USA). In the phased injections, abiotic calcite precipitation was induced and confirmed to have occurred. Previous work in glass beads and homogeneous sand was limited to high frequency detection of calcite, however in this work we observed the development of two polarization mechanisms, one at high frequency (>100 Hz) and one at low frequency (< 100 Hz). Based on the characteristic frequencies from the SIP high and low frequency regimes, characteristic length scales (L) were computed where the adsorption mode of Na+ versus Ca2+ was compared by using diffusion coefficients corresponding to Na+ versus an arithmetically averaged value for Na+ and Ca2+. Using the diffusion coefficient of Na+, the high frequency L was found to correlate well with the size of the calcite crystals. The low frequency L correlated well with the individual natural sediment grain sizes within the columns. During late experimental times (day 36 and 40), the characteristic low frequency in two of the experimental columns shifted to lower frequencies (<0.001 Hz) which may signify SIP sensitivity of the formed calcite with the sediment grains. In field applications, the development of a low frequency polarization length scale to monitor calcite precipitation is promising for field monitoring applications, however further laboratory work needs to be performed to examine the SIP sensitivity of calcite formation in the presence of to natural sediments

calcium carbonate, calcite, precipitation, spectra↗

DES16C3cje: A low-luminosity, long-lived supernova

ABSTRACT We present DES16C3cje, a low-luminosity, long-lived type II supernova (SN II) at redshift 0.0618, detected by the Dark Energy Survey (DES). DES16C3cje is a unique SN. The spectra are characterized by extremely narrow photospheric lines corresponding to very low expansion velocities of ≲1500 km s−1, and the light curve shows an initial peak that fades after 50 d before slowly rebrightening over a further 100 d to reach an absolute brightness of Mr ∼ −15.5 mag. The decline rate of the late-time light curve is then slower than that expected from the powering by radioactive decay of 56Co, but is comparable to that expected from accretion power. Comparing the bolometric light curve with hydrodynamical models, we find that DES16C3cje can be explained by either (i) a low explosion energy (0.11 foe) and relatively large 56Ni production of 0.075 M⊙ from an ∼15 M⊙ red supergiant progenitor typical of other SNe II, or (ii) a relatively compact ∼40 M⊙ star, explosion energy of 1 foe, and 0.08 M⊙ of 56Ni. Both scenarios require additional energy input to explain the late-time light curve, which is consistent with fallback accretion at a rate of ∼0.5 × 10−8 M⊙ s−1.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Concordance cosmology?

ABSTRACT We propose a new intuitive metric for evaluating the tension between two experiments, and apply it to several data sets. While our metric is non-optimal, if evidence of tension is detected, this evidence is robust and easy to interpret. Assuming a flat Lambda cold dark matter (ΛCDM) cosmological model, we find that there is a modest 2.2σ tension between the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 results and the Planck measurements of the cosmic microwave background. This tension is driven by the difference between the amount of structure observed in the late-time Universe and that predicted from fitting the Planck data, and appears to be unrelated to the tension between Planck and local estimates of the Hubble rate. In particular, combining DES, baryon acoustic oscillations, big bang nucleosynthesis, and supernovae measurements recover a Hubble constant and sound horizon consistent with Planck, and in tension with local distance–ladder measurements. If the tension between these various data sets persists, it is likely that reconciling all current data will require breaking the flat ΛCDM model in at least two different ways: one involving new physics in the early Universe, and one involving new late-time Universe physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Supernova neutrino signals based on long-term axisymmetric simulations

ABSTRACT We study theoretical neutrino signals from core-collapse supernova (CCSN) computed using axisymmetric CCSN simulations that cover the post-bounce phase up to ∼4 s. We provide basic quantities of the neutrino signals such as event rates, energy spectra, and cumulative number of events at some terrestrial neutrino detectors, and then discuss some new features in the late phase that emerge in our models. Contrary to popular belief, neutrino emissions in the late phase are not always steady, but rather have temporal fluctuations, the vigour of which hinges on the CCSN model and neutrino flavour. We find that such temporal variations are not primarily driven by proto-neutron star convection, but by fallback accretion in exploding models. We assess the detectability of these temporal variations, and find that IceCube is the most promising detector with which to resolve them. We also update fitting formulae first proposed in our previous paper for which the total neutrino energy emitted at the CCSN source is estimated from the cumulative number of events in each detector. This will be a powerful technique with which to analyse real observations, particularly for low-statistics data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Projecting the likely importance of weak-interaction-driven bulk viscosity in neutron star mergers

ABSTRACT In this work, we estimate how much bulk viscosity driven by Urca processes is likely to affect the gravitational wave signal of a neutron star coalescence. In the late inspiral, we show that bulk viscosity affects the binding energy at fourth post-Newtonian order. Even though this effect is enhanced by the square of the gravitational compactness, the coefficient of bulk viscosity is likely too small to lead to observable effects in the waveform during the late inspiral, when only considering the orbital motion itself. In the post-merger, however, the characteristic time-scales and spatial scales are different, potentially leading to the opposite conclusion. We post-process data from a state-of-the-art equal-mass binary neutron star merger simulation to estimate the effects of bulk viscosity (which was not included in the simulation itself). In that scenario, we find that bulk viscosity can reach high values in regions of the merger. We compute several estimates of how much it might directly affect the global dynamics of the considered merger scenario, and find that it could become significant. Even larger effects could arise in different merger scenarios or in simulations that include non-linear effects. This assessment is reinforced by a quantitative comparison with relativistic heavy-ion collisions where such effects have been explored extensively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Quantifying the poor purity and completeness of morphological samples selected by galaxy colour

The galaxy population is strongly bimodal in both colour and morphology, and the two measures correlate strongly, with most blue galaxies being late-types (spirals) and most early-types, typically ellipticals, being red. This observation has led to the use of colour as a convenient selection criterion to make samples that are then labelled by morphology. Such use of colour as a proxy for morphology results in necessarily impure and incomplete samples. In this paper, we make use of the morphological labels produced by Galaxy Zoo to measure how incomplete and impure such samples are, considering optical (ugriz), near-ultraviolet (NUV), and near-infrared (NIR; JHK) bands. The best single colour optical selection is found using a threshold of g - r = 0.742, but this still results in a sample where only 56 per cent of red galaxies are smooth and 56 per cent of smooth galaxies are red. Use of the NUV gives some improvement over purely optical bands, particularly for late-types, but still results in low purity/completeness for early-types. No significant improvement is found by adding NIR bands. With any two bands, including NUV, a sample of early-types with greater than two-thirds purity cannot be constructed. In conclusion, advances in quantitative galaxy morphologies have made colour–morphology proxy selections largely unnecessary going forward; where such assumptions are still required, we recommend studies carefully consider the implications of sample incompleteness/impurity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Beyond the hubble sequence – exploring galaxy morphology with unsupervised machine learning

We explore unsupervised machine learning for galaxy morphology analyses using a combination of feature extraction with a vector-quantized variational autoencoder (VQ-VAE) and hierarchical clustering (HC). We propose a new methodology that includes: (1) consideration of the clustering performance simultaneously when learning features from images; (2) allowing for various distance thresholds within the HC algorithm; (3) using the galaxy orientation to determine the number of clusters. This set-up provides 27 clusters created with this unsupervised learning that we show are well separated based on galaxy shape and structure (e.g. Sérsic index, concentration, asymmetry, Gini coefficient). These resulting clusters also correlate well with physical properties such as the colour–magnitude diagram, and span the range of scaling relations such as mass versus size amongst the different machine-defined clusters. When we merge these multiple clusters into two large preliminary clusters to provide a binary classification, an accuracy of $\sim 87{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ is reached using an imbalanced data set, matching real galaxy distributions, which includes 22.7 per cent early-type galaxies and 77.3 per cent late-type galaxies. Comparing the given clusters with classic Hubble types (ellipticals, lenticulars, early spirals, late spirals, and irregulars), we show that there is an intrinsic vagueness in visual classification systems, in particular galaxies with transitional features such as lenticulars and early spirals. Based on this, the main result in this work is not how well our unsupervised method matches visual classifications and physical properties, but that the method provides an independent classification that may be more physically meaningful than any visually based ones.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Hydrogen reionization ends by z = 5.3: Lyman-α optical depth measured by the XQR-30 sample

ABSTRACT The presence of excess scatter in the Ly-α forest at z ∼ 5.5, together with the existence of sporadic extended opaque Gunn-Peterson troughs, has started to provide robust evidence for a late end of hydrogen reionization. However, low data quality and systematic uncertainties complicate the use of Ly-α transmission as a precision probe of reionization’s end stages. In this paper, we assemble a sample of 67 quasar sightlines at z > 5.5 with high signal-to-noise ratios of >10 per ≤15 km s−1 spectral pixel, relying largely on the new XQR-30 quasar sample. XQR-30 is a large program on VLT/X-Shooter which obtained deep (SNR > 20 per pixel) spectra of 30 quasars at z > 5.7. We carefully account for systematics in continuum reconstruction, instrumentation, and contamination by damped Ly-α systems. We present improved measurements of the mean Ly-α transmission over 4.9 < z < 6.1. Using all known systematics in a forward modelling analysis, we find excellent agreement between the observed Ly-α transmission distributions and the homogeneous-UVB simulations Sherwood and Nyx up to z ≤ 5.2 (<1σ), and mild tension (∼2.5σ) at z = 5.3. Homogeneous UVB models are ruled out by excess Ly-α transmission scatter at z ≥ 5.4 with high confidence (>3.5σ). Our results indicate that reionization-related fluctuations, whether in the UVB, residual neutral hydrogen fraction, and/or IGM temperature, persist in the intergalactic medium until at least z = 5.3 (t = 1.1 Gyr after the big bang). This is further evidence for a late end to reionization.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Image feature extraction and galaxy classification: a novel and efficient approach with automated machine learning

ABSTRACT In this work, we explore the possibility of applying machine learning methods designed for 1D problems to the task of galaxy image classification. The algorithms used for image classification typically rely on multiple costly steps, such as the point spread function deconvolution and the training and application of complex Convolutional Neural Networks of thousands or even millions of parameters. In our approach, we extract features from the galaxy images by analysing the elliptical isophotes in their light distribution and collect the information in a sequence. The sequences obtained with this method present definite features allowing a direct distinction between galaxy types. Then, we train and classify the sequences with machine learning algorithms, designed through the platform Modulos AutoML. As a demonstration of this method, we use the second public release of the Dark Energy Survey (DES DR2). We show that we are able to successfully distinguish between early-type and late-type galaxies, for images with signal-to-noise ratio greater than 300. This yields an accuracy of $86{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ for the early-type galaxies and $93{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ for the late-type galaxies, which is on par with most contemporary automated image classification approaches. The data dimensionality reduction of our novel method implies a significant lowering in computational cost of classification. In the perspective of future data sets obtained with e.g. Euclid and the Vera Rubin Observatory, this work represents a path towards using a well-tested and widely used platform from industry in efficiently tackling galaxy classification problems at the peta-byte scale.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The co-evolution of strong AGN and central galaxies in different environments

We exploit a sample of 80 000 Sloan Digital Sky Survey central galaxies to investigate the effect of active galactic nucleus (AGN) feedback on their evolution. We trace the demographics of optically selected AGN (Seyferts) as a function of their internal properties and environment. We find that the preeminence of AGN as the dominant ionizing mechanism increases with stellar mass, overtaking star formation for galaxies with M stellar ≥ 10 10 M ⊙ . The AGN fraction changes systematically with the galaxies’ star formation activity. Within the blue cloud, this fraction increases as star formation activity declines, reaching a maximum near the green valley (⁠~17 ± 4 per cent), followed by a decrease as the galaxies transition into the red sequence. This systematic trend provides evidence that AGN feedback plays a key role in regulating and suppressing star formation. In general, Seyfert central galaxies achieve an early-type morphology while they still host residual star formation. This suggests that, in all environments, the morphology of Seyfert galaxies evolves from late- to early-type before their star formation is fully quenched. Stellar mass plays an important role in this morphological transformation: while low-mass systems tend to emerge from the green valley with an elliptical morphology (T-Type ∼ −2.5 ± 0.7), their high-mass counterparts maintain a spiral morphology deeper into the red sequence. In high-stellar mass centrals, the fraction of Seyferts increases from early- to late-type galaxies, indicating that AGN feedback may be linked with the morphology and its transformation. As a result, our analysis further suggests that AGN are fuelled by their own host halo gas reservoir, but when in group centrals can also increase their gas reservoir via interactions with satellite galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

How negative feedback and the ambient environment limit the influence of recombination in common envelope evolution

ABSTRACT We perform 3D hydrodynamical simulations to study recombination and ionization during the common envelope (CE) phase of binary evolution, and develop techniques to track the ionic transitions in time and space. We simulate the interaction of a $2\, \mathrm{M_\odot }$ red giant branch primary and a $1\, \mathrm{M_\odot }$ companion modelled as a particle. We compare a run employing a tabulated equation of state (EOS) that accounts for ionization and recombination, with a run employing an ideal gas EOS. During the first half of the simulations, ∼15 per cent more mass is unbound in the tabulated EOS run due to the release of recombination energy, but by simulation end the difference has become negligible. We explain this as being a consequence of (i) the tabulated EOS run experiences a shallower inspiral and hence smaller orbital energy release at late times because recombination energy release expands the envelope and reduces drag, and (ii) collision and mixing between expanding envelope gas, ejecta and circumstellar ambient gas assists in unbinding the envelope, but does so less efficiently in the tabulated EOS run where some of the energy transferred to bound envelope gas is used for ionization. The rate of mass unbinding is approximately constant in the last half of the simulations and the orbital separation steadily decreases at late times. A simple linear extrapolation predicts a CE phase duration of ${\sim}2\, {\rm yr}$, after which the envelope would be unbound.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Interannual consistency of migration phenology is season- and breeding region-specific in North American Golden Eagles

Abstract Interannual consistency (an indicator of the strength of adjustments) in migration phenology of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in North America is most strongly associated with the breeding region, the season, and with late-season temperature on breeding and wintering grounds. Consistency was greatest in boreal spring migration and the breeding regions of eastern Canada. Using multi-year GPS tracks of 83 adults breeding in 3 spatially distant regions (Alaska, northeast Canada, and southeast Canada), we quantified the interannual consistency of migration phenology and wintering latitude within and among individuals tracked across multiple years and the repeatability (r) by breeding regions and seasons. By comparing regions and seasons, we found that consistency was highest (r > 0.85) for boreal spring migration in eastern Canada while Alaska had the lowest value (r < 0.15). Because seasonal consistency of migration phenology was only detected in eastern Canada, we conclude that seasonal features are not a primary constraint. While regional differences in consistency were not related to differences in migratory distances, they could be the result of genetic or habitat differences. We also found that temperatures warmer than the decadal average at the region of departure delayed the start of boreal spring migration by ~10 days and advanced boreal autumn migration by ~20 days. These results suggest that warmer temperatures would reduce residence time on breeding grounds, contrary to expectations and trends found in other studies. Wide variations in migratory strategies across a species distribution can add to the list of challenges for conservation but may give migrants the capacity to acclimate to environmental changes.

Zoology↗

Seasonal trends in photosynthesis and leaf traits in scarlet oak

Understanding seasonal variation in photosynthesis is important for understanding and modelling plant productivity. Here, we used shotgun sampling to examine physiological, structural and spectral leaf traits of upper canopy, sun-exposed leaves in Quercus coccinea Münchh (scarlet oak) across the growing season in order to understand seasonal trends, explore the mechanisms underpinning physiological change, and investigate the impact of extrapolating measurements from a single date to the whole season. We tested the hypothesis that photosynthetic rates and capacities would peak at the summer solstice i.e., at the time of peak photoperiod. Contrary to expectations, our results reveal a late-season peak in both photosynthetic capacity and rate before the expected sharp decrease at the start of senescence. This late-season maximum occurred after the higher summer temperatures and VPD, and was correlated with the recovery of leaf water content and increased stomatal conductance. We modelled photosynthesis at the top of the canopy and found that the simulated results closely tracked the maximum carboxylation capacity of Rubisco. For both photosynthetic capacity and modelled top-of-canopy photosynthesis, the maximum value was therefore not observed at the summer solstice. Rather, in each case the measurements at and around the solstice were close to the overall seasonal mean, with values later in the season leading to deviations from the mean by up to 41% and 52% respectively. Overall, we found that the expected Gaussian pattern of photosynthesis was not observed. We conclude that an understanding of species- and environment-specific changes in photosynthesis across the season is essential for correct estimation of seasonal photosynthetic capacity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of inoculation practices on microbiota assembly and community stability in a fabricated ecosystem

Studying plant-microbe-soil interactions is challenging due to their high complexity and variability in natural ecosystems. While fabricated ecosystems provide opportunities to recapitulate aspects of these systems in reduced complexity and controlled environments, inoculation can be a significant source of variation. To tackle this, we evaluated how different bacteria inoculation practices and plant harvesting time points affect the reproducibility of a microbial synthetic community (SynCom) in association with the model grass Brachypodium distachyon. We tested three microbial inoculation practices: seed inoculation, transplant inoculation, and seedling inoculation; and two harvesting points: early (14-day-old plants) and late (21 days post-inoculation). We grew our plants and bacterial strains in sterile devices (EcoFABs) and characterized the microbial community from root, rhizosphere, and sand using 16S ribosomal RNA gene sequencing. The results showed that inoculation practices significantly affected the rhizosphere microbial community only when harvesting at an early time point but not at the late stage. As the SynCom showed a persistent association with B. distachyon at 21 days post-inoculation regardless of inoculation practices, we assessed the reproducibility of each inoculation method and found that transplant inoculation showed the highest reproducibility. Moreover, plant biomass was not adversely affected by transplant inoculation treatment. We concluded that bacteria inoculation while transplanting coupled with a later harvesting time point gives the most reproducible microbial community in the EcoFAB-B. distachyon-SynCom fabricated ecosystem and recommend this method as a standardized protocol for use with fabricated ecosystem experimental systems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Wealth inequality in the prehispanic northern US Southwest: from Malthus to Tyche

Persistent differences in wealth and power among prehispanic Pueblo societies are visible from the late AD 800s through the late 1200s, after which large portions of the northern US Southwest were depopulated. In this paper we measure these differences in wealth using Gini coefficients based on house size, and show that high Ginis (large wealth differences) are positively related to persistence in settlements and inversely related to an annual measure of the size of the unoccupied dry-farming niche. We argue that wealth inequality in this record is due first to processes inherent in village life which have internally different distributions of the most productive maize fields, exacerbated by the dynamics of systems of balanced reciprocity; and second to decreasing ability to escape village life owing to shrinking availability of unoccupied places within the maize dry-farming niche as villages get enmeshed in regional systems of tribute or taxation. We embed this analytical reconstruction in the model of an ‘Abrupt imposition of Malthusian equilibrium in a natural-fertility, agrarian society’ proposed by Puleston et al. (Puleston C, Tuljapurkar S, Winterhalder B. 2014 PLoS ONE 9, e87541 (doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0087541)), but show that the transition to Malthusian dynamics in this area is not abrupt but extends over centuries. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Evolutionary ecology of inequality’.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Revealing the Structure and Dynamics of Self-Generated Electric and Magnetic Fields Near Plasma Stagnation in Laser-Driven Hohlraums

By coupling newly developed triparticle charged particle radiography with radiography reconstruction algorithms and novel reconstruction postprocessing techniques, the spatial structure and time evolution of self-generated electric and magnetic fields in laser-driven vacuum hohlraums have been quantitatively revealed. Through high-fidelity data from a series of experiments, it is shown that late in the hohlraum evolution (after the end of laser drive) these fields are strongly correlated in both space and time, providing evidence that their evolution is primarily dominated by advection with the plasma flow. At these late times, plasma flow velocities inferred from both gross radiography analysis and field reconstructions (and corroborated with Thomson scattering measurements) indicate that the plasma is approaching stagnation near the hohlraum axis. Finally, these experiments provide not only new physical insight into spontaneously generated hohlraum fields, but also provide important spatially and temporally resolved information for future benchmarking of numerical codes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗