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At least 1,027 records · Page 57
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

From subsidies to stressors: Positively skewed ecological gradients alter biological responses to nutrients in streams

Abstract Subsidy–stress gradients offer a useful framework for understanding ecological responses to perturbation and may help inform ecological metrics in highly modified systems. Historic, region‐wide shifts from bottomland hardwood forest to row crop agriculture can cause positively skewed impact gradients in alluvial plain ecoregions, resulting in tolerant organisms that typically exhibit a subsidy response (increased abundance in response to environmental stressors) shifting to a stress response (declining abundance at higher concentrations). As a result, observed biological tolerance in modified ecosystems may differ from less modified regions, creating significant challenges for detecting biological responses to restoration efforts. Using the agriculturally dominated Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP) ecoregion in Mississippi, USA, as a case study, we tested the hypothesis that macroinvertebrate taxa that typically display a subsidy response to nutrient enrichment in less modified ecoregions (i.e., nutrient‐tolerance) shift to a stress response to increasing nutrients in highly modified watersheds with elevated baseline nutrient conditions (i.e., nutrient intolerance). The abundance and diversity of MAP‐specific intolerant taxa identified with threshold indicator taxa analysis were either unresponsive or exhibited a subsidy response to increasing nutrients in less modified ecoregions in Mississippi with less land alteration and lower nutrient concentrations, but declined at higher concentrations, providing evidence for a stress response to elevated nutrients in the MAP. Additionally, MAP‐specific tolerant and intolerant taxa richness responded to increased nutrients predictably and consistently across space and time within the MAP. However, in MAP streams, elevated specific conductance was predicted to dampen the response of tolerant and intolerant taxa richness to increasing nutrient concentrations, highlighting the importance of considering multistressor interactions when interpreting biological data. Lastly, we demonstrate the efficacy of this approach with sediment bacterial communities characterized with amplicon sequencing, which lack sufficient life history characteristics necessary for the development of multimetric indices. Both macroinvertebrate and bacterial communities responded similarly to increasing nutrient concentrations, suggesting DNA‐based approaches may provide an efficient biological assessment tool for monitoring water quality improvements in highly modified watersheds.

DeVilbiss, Stephen E. [U.S. Geological Survey Lowe↗
DOE OSTI2023

Shading contributes to Sphagnum decline in response to warming

Experimental warming of an ombrotrophic bog in northern Minnesota has caused a rapid decline in the productivity and areal cover of Sphagnum mosses, affecting whole-ecosystem carbon balance and biogeochemistry. Direct effects of elevated temperature and the attendant drying are most likely the primary cause of the effects on Sphagnum, but there may also be responses to the increased shading from shrubs, which increased with increasing temperature. To evaluate the independent effects of reduction in light availability and deposition of shrub litter on Sphagnum productivity, small plots with shrubs removed were laid out adjacent to the warming experiment on hummocks and hollows in three blocks and with five levels of shading. Four plots were covered with neutral density shade cloth to simulate shading from shrubs of 30%–90% reduction in light; one plot was left open. Growth of Sphagnum angustifolium/fallax and S. divinum declined linearly with increasing shade in hollows, but there was no response to shade on hummocks, where higher irradiance in the open plots may have been inhibitory. Shading caused etiolation of Sphagnum—they were thin and spindly under the deepest shade. A dense mat of shrub litter, corresponding to the amount of shrub litter produced in response to warming, did not inhibit Sphagnum growth or cause increases in potentially toxic base cations. CO 2 exchange and chlorophyll-a fluorescence of S. angustifolium/fallax from the 30% and 90% shade cloth plots were measured in the laboratory. Light response curves indicate that maximal light saturated photosynthesis was 42% greater for S. angustifolium/fallax grown under 30% shade cloth relative to plants grown under 90% shade cloth. The response of Sphagnum growth in response to increasing shade is consistent with the hypothesis that increased shade resulting from shrub expansion in response to experimental warming contributed to reduced Sphagnum growth.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Male mating season range expansion results from an increase in scale of daily movements for a polygynous–promiscuous bird

Abstract Males of species with promiscuous mating systems are commonly observed to use larger ranges during the mating season relative to non‐mating seasons, which is often attributed to a change in movements related to reproductive activities. However, few studies link seasonal range sizes to variation in daily space use patterns to provide insight into the behavioral mechanisms underlying mating season range expansion. We studied 20 GPS‐tagged male wild turkeys ( Meleagris gallopavo ), a large upland gamebird, during the mating and summer non‐mating seasons to test the hypothesis that larger mating season ranges resulted from male wild turkeys expanding the scale of daily movement activities to locate and court females. We delineated mating and non‐mating seasons based on intensity of gobbling, a vocalization tied to courtship behavior, recorded by autonomous recording units distributed across the study area. Mating season ranges were significantly larger than non‐mating season ranges. Daily ranges were larger in the mating season, as were distances between roost sites used on consecutive nights. Variance in daily range size was greater in the mating season, but low temporal autocorrelation suggested considerable daily variability in both seasons. We found no evidence that male wild turkeys changed how they distributed daily movements within seasonal ranges, or differences in habitat use, suggesting larger mating season ranges result from male wild turkeys increasing the scale of their daily movements, rather than a systematic shift to a nomadic movement strategy. Likely, the distribution of females is more dynamic and ephemeral compared to other resources, prompting males to traverse larger daily ranges during the mating season to locate and court females. Our work illustrates the utility of using daily movement to understand the behavioral process underlying larger space use patterns.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Increasing temperature weakens the positive effect of genetic diversity on population growth

Abstract Genetic diversity and temperature increases associated with global climate change are known to independently influence population growth and extinction risk. Whether increasing temperature may influence the effect of genetic diversity on population growth, however, is not known. We address this issue in the model protist system Tetrahymena thermophila . We test the hypothesis that at temperatures closer to the species’ thermal optimum (i.e., the temperature at which population growth is maximal, or T opt ), genetic diversity should have a weaker effect on population growth compared to temperatures away from the thermal optimum. To do so, we grew populations of T . thermophila with varying levels of genetic diversity at increasingly warmer temperatures and quantified their intrinsic population growth rate, r . We found that genetic diversity increases population growth at cooler temperatures, but that as temperature increases, this effect weakens. We also show that a combination of changes in the amount of expressed genetic diversity (G) in r , plastic changes in population growth across temperatures (E), and strong G × E interactions underlie this temperature effect. Our results uncover important but largely overlooked temperature effects that have implications for the management of small populations with depauperate genetic stocks in an increasingly warming world.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

An omnivorous mesopredator modifies predation of omnivore-dispersed seeds

Post-dispersal seed predation is an important determinant of plant recruitment. Although many plant species are dispersed following consumption by omnivorous vertebrates, the potential for these dispersal agents to indirectly affect seed fate by modifying seed predator behavior is poorly understood. We evaluated the hypothesis that the scat of an omnivorous vertebrate (coyote, Canis latrans), which is also a rodent predator, would reduce seed predation by rodent granivores. We also hypothesized that scat would lead to increased removal by arthropod seed predators by providing a resource that attracts ants and other arthropods. We examined the role of omnivore deposition on seed predation of two animal-dispersed species that differed in size: Larger Prunus serotina seeds are attacked only by rodents, whereas smaller Rubus allegheniensis seeds are attacked by arthropods and rodents. Using an experiment that manipulated the presence of coyote scat and access by different granivore guilds, we found that scat reduced the total number of seeds removed from full-access depots by 12%, but it increased the total number of seeds removed from arthropod-only depots by 43%. Rodent removal of P. serotina seeds was 21% lower in the presence of scat. Scat composition was also important in affecting rodent seed predation, with seed predation 50% lower in the presence of meat-rich scat compared with mixed or fruit-rich scat. Arthropod removal of R. allegheniensis seeds was 43% higher in the presence of scat. Prunus serotina seeds were generally removed at greater rates than R. allegheniensis seeds in full-access trays; however, scat reduced this difference in removal rates from 37% more P. serotina seeds removed to 18% more P. serotina seeds removed. These findings illuminate a new pathway through which omnivores may influence plant populations by modifying post-dispersal seed predation by arthropods and rodents. Moreover, our results indicate that the ultimate effect of vertebrate omnivores on seed survival in a given region may depend upon omnivore diet, dominant seed predator guilds, and differences in granivore seed preference.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Abundance of spring‐ and winter‐active arthropods declines with warming

Abstract Because ectotherm activity and metabolism are sensitive to temperature, terrestrial arthropods may be especially responsive to ongoing climatic warming. Here, we quantified responses of arthropod abundance to two years of warming in an outdoor temperature manipulation experiment at Duke Forest, North Carolina, USA. Nine open‐top chambers were individually heated year‐round from 1.5° to 5.5°C above ambient temperature. From two years of monthly pitfall trapping, we collected and identified 4,468 arthropods representing 24 orders. We initially predicted that arthropods would experience the greatest negative effects of experimental warming during the summer months, when temperatures reach their yearly maximum and arthropods may be close to their maximum thermal tolerance limits. Instead, we found that the strongest negative effects on arthropod abundance occurred during the winter and spring, when ambient temperatures are relatively cooler, whereas the effects of experimental warming on abundance were not significant during the summer or fall. During the spring of 2012, the warmest spring on record for the southeastern USA, total arthropod abundance declined 20% per °C of experimental warming. Abundance declines were driven largely by flies (Diptera), which were the most abundant insect order, representing approximately a third of all arthropods collected. The most abundant arthropod family, Mycetophilidae (fungus gnats), declined 64% per °C of warming during the spring of 2012. Although previous research on climatic warming has focused on the impact of maximum yearly temperatures on organismal performance, our results are more consistent with the cool‐season sensitivity hypothesis, which posits that arthropods adapted for cooler conditions are likely to face the strongest negative effects of warming during the cooler seasons.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Trait relationships of fungal decomposers in response to drought using a dual field and laboratory approach

Abstract Decomposer fungi play a fundamental role in terrestrial ecosystem dynamics. In the southwestern United States, climate change is causing more frequent and severe droughts, which may alter fungal community composition and activity. Investigating relationships between fungal traits may improve the prediction of fungal responses to drought. In this dual field and laboratory experiment, we examine whether trade‐offs occur between traits associated with drought. Specifically, we test the hypothesis that fungi sort into lifestyles specializing in growth y ield, resource a cquisition, and drought s tress tolerance (“YAS” framework). For the field experiment, we constructed microbial “cages” containing sterilized litter and 1 of 10 fungal isolates. These cages were placed in long‐term drought and control plots in a southern Californian grassland for 6 and 12 months. We measured fungal hyphal length per unit litter mass loss for growth yield, the potential activities of four extracellular enzymes for resource acquisition, and the ability to grow in the drought versus control plots for drought stress tolerance. We compared these results with a laboratory microcosm experiment constructed with the same fungal isolates and that measured the same fungal traits. The field experiment corroborated our laboratory results, in that no trade‐offs were observed between growth yield and resource acquisition traits. However, in contrast to the laboratory experiment, drought tolerance was negatively related to extracellular enzyme activity and growth yield in the field, implying a trade‐off. Despite this observed trade‐off in the field, growth yield was not hindered by drought. We propose a modification to the YAS framework, by combining the growth yield and resource acquisition lifestyles, which may be more appropriate for this arid system. This joint laboratory and field approach contextualizes a theoretical framework in microbial ecology and improves understanding of fungal community response to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Vertebrate and invertebrate competition for carrion in human‐impacted environments depends on abiotic factors

Abstract Human altered landscapes have caused declines in the diversity of wildlife where behaviorally plastic species (i.e., mesocarnivores and invasive species) tend to monopolize these areas and consume predictable and readily accessible food resources, such as human food waste and carrion. Increased consumption of carrion by vertebrates and invasive invertebrate species can alter population dynamics of native necrophagous insects relying on these resources. We tested the hypothesis that vertebrate scavengers and invasive species reduce blow fly (1) ability to use carrion and (2) reproduction in human‐impacted environments in central Texas, USA, with season, habitat (field and wooded landscapes), and carrion type (species of carrion and coat color) acting synergistically. Vertebrate scavengers in this habitat, of which 75% of the documented species were mesocarnivores and obligate scavengers, consumed 100% of carrion during the winter and 62% during summer despite having low species richness (2–5 species). Of the remaining carcasses available for arthropod activity during summer, the invasive red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), monopolized 34%, and blow flies (e.g., Lucilia eximia and Chrysomya rufifacies [Diptera: Calliphoridae]) were only able to colonize 25%. Approximately 90% of carrion that was utilized by blow flies was co‐colonized by fire ants, and subsequent production of adult blow flies experienced up to a ninefold reduction in production compared with carcasses that were not scavenged by vertebrates or fire ants. Our results demonstrate oviposition resources used by blow flies in environments altered by human activity are reduced significantly by vertebrate scavengers and an invasive ant species. Future research should determine whether competitive interactions between vertebrate and invasive ant competitors for access to carrion resources have population‐level impacts to blow flies in human‐mediated ecosystems, or whether blow flies are able to shift to other resources to maintain sustainable populations and continue providing ecosystem services, such as pollination.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using phenology to unravel differential soil water use and productivity in a semiarid savanna

Savannas are water-limited ecosystems characterized by two dominant plant types: trees and an understory primarily made up grass. Different phenology and root structures of these plant types complicate how savanna primary productivity responds to changes in water availability. We tested the hypothesis that productivity in savannas is controlled by the temporal and vertical distribution of soil water content (SWC) and differences in growing season length of understory and tree plant functional types. To quantify the relationship between tree, understory, and savanna-wide phenology and productivity, we used PhenoCam and satellite observations surrounding an eddy covariance tower at a semiarid savanna site in Arizona, USA. We distinguished between SWC across two different depth intervals (shallow, <0–30 cm and deep, >30–100 cm). We found that tree greenness increased with SWC at both depths, while understory greenness was only sensitive to the shallower SWC measurements. Onset of ecosystem dormancy, estimated from satellite observations close to the eddy covariance tower, explained more variability in annual gross primary productivity (GPP) than in other phenometrics. Higher SWC led to an extended growing season, caused by delayed dormancy in trees, but the understory showed no evidence of delayed dormancy in wetter periods. We infer that the timing of ecosystem scale dormancy, driven by trees, is important in understanding changes in a savanna's GPP. These findings highlight the important effects of rainfall during the winter. These findings suggest that savanna GPP is conditional on different responses to moisture availability in each of the dominant vegetation components.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Functional but not taxonomic diversity increases productivity of Populus in the southeastern United States

Plant interactions like competition and facilitation impact ecosystem function and resilience. Improving our understanding of the relationships between these interactions and community productivity has important implications for managers of production systems in forestry and agriculture as well as conservation science. Populus spp. are an excellent model system for exploring how inter‐ and intraspecific interactions impact ecosystem functions, such as productivity, in forest plantations. In this study, we compared aboveground productivity of six Populus clones from three different taxa grown in monoclonal and mixed‐clonal plots. The different mixture treatments were intended to experimentally test aboveground biomass response to contrasting levels of taxonomic diversity and functional diversity based on nitrogen use characteristics of Populus clones. We hypothesize that functional diversity would be more important than taxonomic diversity in increasing aboveground productivity of mixed‐clonal plantings compared to monocultures. In addition, a subset of treatments was carried out on additional sites representing a productivity gradient in order to determine if the relationship between biodiversity and productivity in these systems diminished at more productive sites as suggested by the stress‐gradient hypothesis. We found that functionally diverse mixtures of clones had greater yield of aboveground biomass than the average of their constituent monocultures, while more taxonomically diverse mixes of clones did not differ from the average of their constituent monocultures. However, when reestablished on sites with extremely high or low productivity, the best performing clone mixture also did not differ from the average of its constituent monocultures. Our results suggest that intimate clone mixtures of Populus have the potential to significantly increase productivity, but results vary by mixture and by site. To capitalize on positive biodiversity effects on yield in production systems, targeted mixtures based on divergent functional traits linked to different use and acquisition strategies for site‐specific limiting resources are most likely to be successful.

BEF↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stream and ocean hydrodynamics mediate partial migration strategies in an amphidromous Hawaiian goby

Abstract Partial migration strategies, in which some individuals migrate but others do not, are widely observed in populations of migratory animals. Such patterns could arise via variation in migratory behaviors made by individual animals, via genetic variation in migratory predisposition, or simply by variation in migration opportunities mediated by environmental conditions. Here we use spatiotemporal variation in partial migration across populations of an amphidromous Hawaiian goby to test whether stream or ocean conditions favor completing its life cycle entirely within freshwater streams rather than undergoing an oceanic larval migration. Across 35 watersheds, microchemical analysis of otoliths revealed that most adult Awaous stamineus were freshwater residents (62% of n = 316 in 2009, 83% of n = 274 in 2011), but we found considerable variation among watersheds. We then tested the hypothesis that the prevalence of freshwater residency increases with the stability of stream flows and decreases with the availability of dispersal pathways arising from ocean hydrodynamics. We found that streams with low variation of daily discharge were home to a higher incidence of freshwater residents in each survey year. The magnitude of the shift in freshwater residency between survey years was positively associated with predicted interannual variability in the success of larval settlement in streams on each island based on passive drift in ocean currents. We built on these findings by developing a theoretical model of goby life history to further evaluate whether mediation of migration outcomes by stream and ocean hydrodynamics could be sufficient to explain the range of partial migration frequency observed across populations. The model illustrates that the proportion of larvae entering the ocean and differential survival of freshwater‐resident versus ocean‐going larvae are plausible mechanisms for range‐wide shifts in migration strategies. Thus, we propose that hydrologic variation in both ocean and stream environments contributes to spatiotemporal variation in the prevalence of migration phenotypes in A. stamineus . Our empirical and theoretical results suggest that the capacity for partial migration could enhance the persistence of metapopulations of diadromous fish when confronted with variable ocean and stream conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Long-term drought promotes invasive species by reducing wildfire severity

Anthropogenic climate change has increased the frequency of drought, wildfire, and invasions of non-native species. Although high-severity fires linked to drought can inhibit recovery of native vegetation in forested ecosystems, it remains unclear how drought impacts the recovery of other plant communities following wildfire. We leveraged an existing rainfall manipulation experiment to test the hypothesis that reduced precipitation, fuel load, and fire severity convert plant community composition from native shrubs to invasive grasses in a Southern California coastal sage scrub system. We measured community composition before and after the 2020 Silverado wildfire in plots with three rainfall treatments. Drought reduced fuel load and vegetation cover, which reduced fire severity. Native shrubs had greater prefire cover in added water plots compared to reduced water plots. Native cover was lower and invasive cover was higher in postfire reduced water plots compared to postfire added and ambient water plots. Our results demonstrate the importance of fuel load on fire severity and plant community composition on an ecosystem scale. Management should focus on reducing fire frequency and removing invasive species to maintain the resilience of coastal sage scrub communities facing drought. In these communities, controlled burns are not recommended as they promote invasive plants.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Habitat specialization and edge effects of soil microbial communities in a fragmented landscape

Abstract Soil microorganisms play outsized roles in nutrient cycling, plant health, and climate regulation. Despite their importance, we have a limited understanding of how soil microbes are affected by habitat fragmentation, including their responses to conditions at fragment edges, or “edge effects.” To understand the responses of soil communities to edge effects, we analyzed the distributions of soil bacteria, archaea, and fungi in an experimentally fragmented system of open patches embedded within a forest matrix. In addition, we identified taxa that consistently differed among patch, edge, or matrix habitats (“specialists”) and taxa that showed no habitat preference (“nonspecialists”). We hypothesized that microbial community turnover would be most pronounced at the edge between habitats. We also hypothesized that specialist fungi would be more likely to be mycorrhizal than nonspecialist fungi because mycorrhizae should be affected more by different plant hosts among habitats, whereas specialist prokaryotes would have smaller genomes (indicating reduced metabolic versatility) and be less likely to be able to sporulate than nonspecialist prokaryotes. Across all replicate sites, the matrix and patch soils harbored distinct microbial communities. However, sites where the contrasts in vegetation and pH between the patch and matrix were most pronounced exhibited larger differences between patch and matrix communities and tended to have edge communities that differed from those in the patch and forest. There were similar numbers of patch and matrix specialists, but very few edge specialist taxa. Acidobacteria and ectomycorrhizae were more likely to be forest specialists, while Chloroflexi, Ascomycota, and Glomeromycota (i.e., arbuscular mycorrhizae) were more likely to be patch specialists. Contrary to our hypotheses, nonspecialist bacteria were not more likely than specialist bacteria to have larger genomes or to be spore‐formers. We found partial support for our mycorrhizal hypothesis: arbuscular mycorrhizae, but not ectomycorrhizae, were more likely to be specialists. Overall, our results indicate that soil microbial communities are sensitive to edges, but not all taxa are equally affected, with arbuscular mycorrhizae in particular showing a strong response to habitat edges. In the context of increasing habitat fragmentation worldwide, our results can help inform efforts to maintain the structure and functioning of the soil microbiome.

Winfrey, Claire C. [Department of Ecology and Evol↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deprotection of N ‐ tert ‐Butoxycarbonyl (Boc) Protected Functionalized Heteroarenes via Addition–Elimination with 3‐Methoxypropylamine

Continued pursuit of functionalized soft‐N‐donor complexant scaffolds with favorable solubility and kinetics profiles applicable for the separation of the trivalent minor actinides from the lanthanides has attracted significant interest over the last three decades. Recent work from this laboratory resulted in the production of various N ‐Boc protected [1,2,4]triazinyl‐pyridin‐2‐yl indole Lewis basic procomplexants which necessitated the removal of the indole N ‐Boc protecting group prior to evaluation of complexant efficacy in separations assays. Traditional deprotection strategies involving trifluoroacetic and other protic and Lewis acids proved unsuccessful in removal of the recalcitrant indole‐ N ‐Boc protecting group necessitating the development of a new strategy for deprotection of this complexant class. A serendipitous result facilitated utilization of 3‐methoxypropylamine as a mild deprotecting agent for various N ‐Boc protected heteroarenes via a proposed addition–elimination mechanism. Method development, application to various heteroarenes including indoles, 1,2‐indazoles, 1,2‐pyrazoles, and related derivatives, a ten‐fold scale‐up reaction, and experimental evaluation of a preliminary mechanistic hypothesis are reported herein.

Gulledge, Zachary Z.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Through the interface: New insights of the hydrogen evolution and oxidation reactions in aqueous solutions

Abstract Hydrogen evolution and oxidation reactions (HER/HOR) are the most fundamental reactions in electrocatalysis. Despite the practical significance, the mechanisms of HER/HOR in aqueous solutions are still elusive. Various theories have been proposed to rationalize the pH effect, cation effect, and structure effect of HER/HOR but none of them can explain all observations. In this review, we discuss four schools of thought for the HER/HOR, focusing on the strengths and shortcomings of each hypothesis and highlighting the magnitude of electrochemical interface structure in hydrogen electrocatalysis.

Liu, Ershuai↗
DOE OSTI2024

Association of female reproductive and hormonal factors with gallbladder cancer risk in Asia: A pooled analysis of the Asia Cohort Consortium

Abstract The female predominance of gallbladder cancer (GBC) has led to a hypothesis regarding the hormone‐related aetiology of GBC. We aimed to investigate the association between female reproductive factors and GBC risk, considering birth cohorts of Asian women. We conducted a pooled analysis of 331,323 women from 12 cohorts across 4 countries (China, Japan, Korea, and Singapore) in the Asia Cohort Consortium. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to assess the association between reproductive factors (age at menarche, parity, age at first delivery, breastfeeding, and age at menopause) and GBC risk. We observed that a later age at menarche was associated with an increased risk of GBC (HR 1.4, 95% CI 1.16–1.70 for 17 years and older vs. 13–14 years), especially among the cohort born in 1940 and later (HR 2.5, 95% CI 1.50–4.35). Among the cohort born before 1940, women with a later age at first delivery showed an increased risk of GBC (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.08–2.24 for 31 years of age and older vs. 20 years of age and younger). Other reproductive factors did not show a clear association with GBC risk. Later ages at menarche and at first delivery were associated with a higher risk of GBC, and these associations varied by birth cohort.

Shin, Aesun↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating reaction parameters in mechanism-enabled population balance models of nanoparticle size distributions: A Bayesian inverse problem approach

In order to quantitatively predict nano- as well as other particle-size distributions, one needs to have both a mathematical model and estimates of the parameters that appear in these models. Here, we show how one can use Bayesian inversion to obtain statistical estimates for the parameters that appear in recently derived mechanism-enabled population balance models (ME-PBM) of nanoparticle growth. The Bayesian approach addresses the question of “how well do we know our parameters, along with their uncertainties?.” The results reveal that Bayesian inversion statistical analysis on an example, prototype $\mathrm{lr(0)_n}$ nanoparticle formation system allows one to estimate not just the most likely rate constants and other parameter values, but also their SDs, confidence intervals, and other statistical information. Moreover, knowing the reliability of the mechanistic model's parameters in turn helps inform one about the reliability of the proposed mechanism, as well as the reliability of its predictions. Importantly, the paper can also be seen as a tutorial with the additional goal of achieving a “Gold Standard” Bayesian inversion ME-PBM benchmark that others can use as a control to check their own use of this methodology for other systems of interest throughout nature. Overall, the results provide strong support for the hypothesis that there is substantial value in using a Bayesian inversion methodology for parameter estimation in particle formation systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

A synthetic strategy for the preparation of alkoxy‐functionalized bis‐1,2,4‐triazinyl‐2,6‐pyridines

Heteroaryl-1,2,4-triazine complexants are commonly utilized in separation science for the selective chelation of minor An from Ln in simulated high-level waste. Furthermore, to facilitate access to relevant chemical entities for hypothesis-driven inquiry toward improved separations performance, a synthetic method to construct various alkoxy-complexant derivatives was required. In this work, a convergent synthetic strategy for the production of 3,3′- and 4,4′-tetraalkoxy-bis-1,2,4-triazinyl-2,6-pyridines from readily available starting materials via a dealkylation/alkylation/condensation approach is described. Synthetic method development, substrate scope, preliminary solubility, and hydrolytic stability data in various process-relevant diluents are reported herein.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗