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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,027 records · Page 57
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Model Calibration with Censored Data

Here, the purpose of model calibration is to make the model predictions closer to reality. The classical Kennedy-O'Hagan approach is widely used for model calibration, which can account for the inadequacy of the computer model while simultaneously estimating the unknown calibration parameters. In many applications, the phenomenon of censoring occurs when the exact outcome of the physical experiment is not observed, but is only known to fall within a certain region. In such cases, the Kennedy-O'Hagan approach cannot be used directly, and we propose a method to incorporate the censoring information when performing model calibration. The method is applied to study the compression phenomenon of liquid inside a bottle. The results show significant improvement over the traditional calibration methods, especially when the number of censored observations is large.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Efficient Optimization of Plasma Radiation Detector Configurations using Imperfect Inference Models

The configurations of instruments fielded on an experiment affect the amount of information captured and the quality of subsequent inference. Here, we investigate the problem of optimizing plasma x-ray radiation detectors in a magneto-inertial fusion experiment at Sandia National Laboratories. It is impossible to directly measure properties such as the temperature of the thermonuclear fusion plasma produced in these experiments because of the extreme environment and destructive nature of the experiment. Among other diagnostics, several detectors are placed with significant standoff from the fusion target to capture the x-rays emitted by the fusion plasma, which can be used to infer some of its properties. To optimize the configuration of these detectors, a high-fidelity model (HFM) is used for simulating outputs and a low-fidelity model (LFM) is used for inference. We develop methods based on A- and L-optimality criteria that are efficient to compute while explicitly accounting for the discrepancy between the HFM and the LFM. The method allows us to find detector configurations that perform similarly to or better than the configuration obtained using an existing sampling-based optimization method while decreasing computational time by a factor of 50. Supplementary materials for this article are available online, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2023

Computational budget optimization for Bayesian parameter estimation in heavy-ion collisions

Abstract Bayesian parameter estimation provides a systematic approach to compare heavy-ion collision models with measurements, leading to constraints on the properties of nuclear matter with proper accounting of experimental and theoretical uncertainties. Aside from statistical and systematic model uncertainties, interpolation uncertainties can also play a role in Bayesian inference, if the model’s predictions can only be calculated at a limited set of model parameters. This uncertainty originates from using an emulator to interpolate the model’s prediction across a continuous space of parameters. In this work, we study the trade-offs between the emulator (interpolation) and statistical uncertainties. We perform the analysis using spatial eccentricities from the T R ENTo model of initial conditions for nuclear collisions. Given a fixed computational budget, we study the optimal compromise between the number of parameter samples and the number of collisions simulated per parameter sample. For the observables and parameters used in the present study, we find that the best constraints are achieved when the number of parameter samples is slightly smaller than the number of collisions simulated per parameter sample.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic and a posteriori optimization to mitigate coil manufacturing errors in stellarator design

Abstract It was recently shown in Wechsung et al (2022 Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 119 e2202084119) that there exist electromagnetic coils that generate magnetic fields, which are excellent approximations to quasi-symmetric fields and have very good particle confinement properties. Using a Gaussian process-based model for coil perturbations, we investigate the impact of manufacturing errors on the performance of these coils. We show that even fairly small errors result in noticeable performance degradation. While stochastic optimization yields minor improvements, it is not possible to mitigate these errors significantly. As an alternative to stochastic optimization, we then formulate a new optimization problem for computing optimal adjustments of the coil positions and currents without changing the shapes of the coil. These a-posteriori adjustments are able to reduce the impact of coil errors by an order of magnitude, providing a new perspective for dealing with manufacturing tolerances in stellarator design.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancements in Constitutive Model Calibration: Leveraging the Power of Full‐Field DIC Measurements and In Situ Load Path Selection for Reliable Parameter Inference

Accurate material characterization and model calibration are essential for computationally supported high-consequence engineering decisions. Historically, characterization and calibration methods (1) use simplified test specimen geometries and global data, (2) cannot guarantee that sufficient characterization data are collected for a specific model of interest, (3) use deterministic methods that provide best-fit parameter values with no uncertainty quantification, and (4) are sequential, inflexible, and time-consuming. This work brings together several recent advancements into an improved workflow called interlaced characterization and calibration (ICC) that advances the state-of-the-art in constitutive model calibration. The ICC paradigm (1) employs tools to efficiently use full-field data to calibrate high-fidelity material models, (2) aligns the data needed with the data collected by adopting an optimal experimental design protocol, (3) quantifies parameter uncertainty through Bayesian inference and (4) incorporates these advancements into a quasi real-time feedback loop. The ICC framework is demonstrated here on the calibration of a material model using simulated full-field data for an aluminium cruciform specimen being deformed biaxially. The cruciform is actively driven through the myopically preferred load path using Bayesian optimal experimental design, which selects load steps that yield the maximum expected information gain (EIG). Principal component analysis (PCA) is performed on the model predictions of full-field displacements, and fast surrogate models are built to approximate the input-output relationships of the expensive finite element model. Furthermore, the tools developed and demonstrated here show that high-fidelity constitutive models can be efficiently and reliably calibrated with quantified uncertainty, thus supporting credible decision-making and potentially increasing the agility of solid mechanics modelling by enabling utilization of computational simulations at earlier stages of the design cycle.

Bayesian optimal experimental design↗
DOE OSTI2016

A Theoretical Framework for Calibration in Computer Models: Parametrization, Estimation and Convergence Properties

Calibration parameters in deterministic computer experiments are those attributes that cannot be measured or available in physical experiments. Here, an approach to estimate them by using data from physical experiments and computer simulations. A theoretical framework is given which allows us to study the issues of parameter identifiability and estimation. We define the L 2 -consistency for calibration as a justification for calibration methods. It is shown that a simplified version of the original KO method leads to asymptotically L 2 -inconsistent calibration. This L 2 -inconsistency can be remedied by modifying the original estimation procedure. A novel calibration method, called the L 2 calibration, is proposed and proven to be L 2 -consistent and enjoys optimal convergence rate. Furthermore a numerical example and some mathematical analysis are used to illustrate the source of the L 2 -inconsistency problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

2018 fourth quarter report to NA-22 on Particle Classifier

This was the final quarter of the third and final year of this project. The team prepared and submitted this project’s final report to NA-22. Work during this quarter included responding to reviewer requests for the unsupervised statistical model paper for the American Statistical Association journal, and completing and submitting the paper about the semi-supervised statistical model to NIMA. We received the report from our North Carolina State University collaborators from the NA-22-sponsored CNEC Consortium, Professor Wilson and student Allen. The report describes their investigation of Dirichlet Process (DP) Gaussian Mixture Models based on pulse shape data from this project. The report is an appendix to this project’s final report, and may be converted into a journal paper in the coming year. Work was performed on the user interface to the Struck firmware. The project team submitted a draft workplan to NA-22 regarding additional work to diffuse improved PSD methods through the NA-22 fast neutron detection community.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nuclear data covariances are critical input to determine upper sub-critical limits and to design experiments to increase it [Slides]

This presentation discusses how Upper Subcritical Limits (USL) are key parameters to determine operational limits in nuclear criticality safety evaluations. It also discusses an example of plutonium casting operation using tantalum at LANL PF-4. The Whisper tool at Los Alamos relies on many inputs, including covariance data, leading the presentation to ask if an existing benchmark data be used in Whisper to adjust nuclear data and covariances to justify a higher USL. If not, Whisper can be used to help design an optimal new benchmark experiment. The presentation also seeks to determine what the possible impacts are on USL and operational limits for plutonium casting. In conclusion, nuclear data covariances are used for by Whisper for: GSSL adjustment of nuclear data and covariances, identification of most similar existing benchmark experiments to application, simulation of Upper Subcritical Limit of application, and input to optimization techniques for designing most appropriate new benchmark experiment(s) to meet requirements. This requires a complete set of nuclear data covariances, benchmarks and k-effective sensitivity profiles (for both benchmarks and applications). The presentation concludes by asking if end users should trust results that depend on current covariance data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

REBOUND: Reverse Engineering Bidirectional Outflow Under Non-Equilibrium Diffusion

Rare-earth elements (REEs) are essential for electronics, renewable energy, and defense technologies. However, the current supply of REEs relies on mining concentrated in a few countries and energy-intensive separations. DOE’s Basic Energy Sciences (BES) program has launched a grand challenge which aims to ensure a sustainable supply of critical REEs by developing innovative and environmentally friendly separation methods. As an alternative to costly and harmful traditional methods, the Non-Equilibrium Transport Driven Separations (NETS) initiative has created a microfluidic Y-channel co-flow method that applies external fields to exploit magneto- and electrohydrodynamic effects for separating dilute REE ions from complex feedstocks. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) studies have identified a few operating conditions with promising ion selectivity and separation efficiency. However, challenges remain regarding Y-channel versatility across feedstocks and accurate incorporation of physical phenomena into CFD models. In this work, we develop a multi-fidelity modelling approach which integrates experimental results with CFD simulation to build a surrogate model for the dependence of separation efficiency to variation of design parameters. The surrogate model enables a reinforcement learning (RL) method to adaptively launch CFD and experimental runs, improving model fidelity around optimal Y-channel parameters.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

EcoBOT: an AI/ML enabled automated phenotyping capability for model plants

Introduction: Advances in automation and AI/ML offer new opportunities for plant science, including design, modeling, and analysis. This study aimed to develop an automated platform for researching small model plants under axenic conditions and integrate it with AI/ML tools. Methods: The EcoBOT platform was developed, which consists of sterile containers (EcoFABs) for growing plants and imaging for monitoring plant growth and health. Brachypodium distachyon was grown on the EcoBOT, and its response to nutrient limitation and copper stress was evaluated. Results: The results showed that Brachypodium distachyon grown in the EcoBOT maintained sterility and responded to nutrient limitation and copper stress. Analysis of over 6,500 root and shoot images revealed varying sensitivity and response rates to copper. Bayesian Optimization was used to improve model accuracies relating copper concentrations to plant biomass via sequential experiments, resulting in a >30% improvement. Discussion: The findings of this study demonstrate the potential of the EcoBOT platform for researching plant responses to environmental factors. Future experiments could focus on relating other chemical stresses and microbial interactions to create generalized models of plant responses.

AI image analysis↗
DOE OSTI2021

Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties

Abstract. Antarctic ice shelves are vulnerable to warming ocean temperatures, and some have already begun thinning in response to increased basal melt rates. Sea level is therefore expected to rise due to Antarctic contributions, but uncertainties in its amount and timing remain largely unquantified. In particular, there is substantial uncertainty in future basal melt rates arising from multi-model differences in thermal forcing and how melt rates depend on that thermal forcing. To facilitate uncertainty quantification in sea level rise projections, we build, validate, and demonstrate projections from a computationally efficient statistical emulator of a high-resolution (4 km) Antarctic ice sheet model, the Community Ice Sheet Model version 2.1. The emulator is trained to a large (500-member) ensemble of 200-year-long 4 km resolution transient ice sheet simulations, whereby regional basal melt rates are perturbed by idealized (yet physically informed) trajectories. The main advantage of our emulation approach is that by sampling a wide range of possible basal melt trajectories, the emulator can be used to (1) produce probabilistic sea level rise projections over much larger Monte Carlo ensembles than are possible by direct numerical simulation alone, thereby providing better statistical characterization of uncertainties, and (2) predict the simulated ice sheet response under differing assumptions about basal melt characteristics as new oceanographic studies are published, without having to run additional numerical ice sheet simulations. As a proof of concept, we propagate uncertainties about future basal melt rate trajectories, derived from regional ocean models, to generate probabilistic sea level rise estimates for 100 and 200 years into the future.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1967

Optimum quantization.

Optimum uniform quantizer structures for digital data with known continuous probability density noting telemetering of stationary Gaussian Markov process functions

Kurtenbach, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1973

A high frequency correction to the Kirchhoff approximation, with application to rough surface EM wave scattering

A high frequency correction to the Kirchhoff approximation is developed for application to rough surface scattering. An approximate solution to the magnetic field integral equation for perfect conductivity and plane wave excitation yields a perturbed surface current expressed as a linear function of the second derivatives of surface height. The corrected surface current vector is substituted into the far field Stratton-Chu integral and average backscattered powers for the four polarization combinations are computed on the assumption that the surface is describable as a stationary Gaussian random process. The strength of this scattering solution is that it can account for height curvature correlation without requiring small height and slope.

Jackson, F. C.↗
NASA NTRS1974

On the quadratic sampled-data regulator with unstable random disturbances

This paper is concerned with the design of a digital controller, optimizing a quadratic cost function, for a linear system subjected to plant disturbance. The disturbance is viewed as a Gaussian random process generated by a linear system which may be unstable. It is shown that the optimal control consists of the sum of two terms: the optimal control when no disturbance is present and a term depending on the estimates of the disturbance. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the convergence of the gain matrices is given.

Halyo, N.↗