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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Data-Driven Robust RVFLNs Modeling of a Blast Furnace Iron-Making Process Using Cauchy Distribution Weighted M-Estimation

Optimal operation of a practical blast furnace (BF) ironmaking process depends largely on a good measurement of molten iron quality (MIQ) indices. However, measuring the MIQ online is not feasible using the available techniques. In this paper, a novel data-driven robust modeling is proposed for online estimation of MIQ using improved random vector functional-link networks (RVFLNs). Since the output weights of traditional RVFLNs are obtained by the least squares approach, a robustness problem may occur when the training dataset is contaminated with outliers. This affects the modeling accuracy of RVFLNs. To solve this problem, a Cauchy distribution weighted M-estimation based robust RFVLNs is proposed. Since the weights of different outlier data are properly determined by the Cauchy distribution, their corresponding contribution on modeling can be properly distinguished. Thus robust and better modeling results can be achieved. Moreover, given that the BF is a complex nonlinear system with numerous coupling variables, the data-driven canonical correlation analysis is employed to identify the most influential components from multitudinous factors that affect the MIQ indices to reduce the model dimension. Finally, experiments using industrial data and comparative studies have demonstrated that the obtained model produces a better modeling and estimating accuracy and stronger robustness than other modeling methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Evaluating the Toxicity Reduction With Computed Tomographic Ventilation Functional Avoidance Radiation Therapy

Purpose: Computed tomographic (CT) ventilation imaging is a new modality that uses 4-dimensional (4D) CT information to calculate lung ventilation. Although retrospective studies have reported on the reduction in dose to functional lung, no work to our knowledge has been published in which the dosimetric improvements have been translated to a reduction in the probability of pulmonary toxicity. Our work estimates the reduction in toxicity for CT ventilation–based functional avoidance planning. Methods and Materials: Seventy previously treated lung cancer patients who underwent 4DCT imaging were used for the study. CT ventilation maps were calculated with 4DCT deformable image registration and a density change–based algorithm. Pneumonitis was graded on the basis of imaging and clinical presentation. Maximum likelihood methods were used to generate normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models predicting grade 2 or higher (2+) and grade 3+ pneumonitis as a function of dose (V5 Gy, V10 Gy, V20 Gy, V30 Gy, and mean dose) to functional lung. For 30 patients a functional plan was generated with the goal of reducing dose to the functional lung while meeting Radiation Therapy Oncology Group 0617 constraints. The NTCP models were applied to the functional plans and the clinically used plans to calculate toxicity reduction. Results: By the use of functional avoidance planning, absolute reductions in grade 2+ NTCP of 6.3%, 7.8%, and 4.8% were achieved based on the mean fV20 Gy, fV30 Gy, and mean dose to functional lung metrics, respectively. Absolute grade 3+ NTCP reductions of 3.6%, 4.8%, and 2.4% were achieved with fV20 Gy, fV30 Gy, and mean dose to functional lung. Maximum absolute reductions of 52.3% and 16.4% were seen for grade 2+ and grade 3+ pneumonitis for individual patients. Conclusion: Our study quantifies the possible toxicity reduction from CT ventilation–based functional avoidance planning. Reductions in grades 2+ and 3+ pneumonitis were 7.1% and 4.7% based on mean dose-function metrics, with reductions as high as 52.3% for individual patients. Our work provides seminal data for determining the potential toxicity benefit from incorporating CT ventilation into thoracic treatment planning.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Estimating Ultraviolet Radiation From Global Horizontal Irradiance

Terrestrial ultraviolet radiation (UV) radiation is a primary factor contributing to the degradation of photovoltaic (PV) modules' efficiency and reliability over time. Therefore, accurate knowledge of terrestrial UV incident on the surface of the PV materials is essential to understand the degradation of PV modules and provide reliable assessment of their service life. As PV is deployed in various climate zones, it is crucial that terrestrial UV information is available at various locations. However, the availability of terrestrial UV data - measured or modeled - is extremely limited. On the other hand, total solar irradiance (TS) datasets are relatively abundant. In this study, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, its industry partners, and ASTM's International Subcommittee on Radiometry and Service Life Prediction are developing a simple method to estimate the clear-sky terrestrial UV irradiance (280-400 nm, 295-400 nm, 285-385 nm, or 295-385 nm) from total irradiance data (280-4000 nm). The goal is to provide reliable estimates of the UV received by samples as a function of location, orientation, tilt, and airmass, thus encompassing a variety of conditions. Here, the Simple Model of the Atmospheric Radiative Transfer of Sunshine (SMARTS) model is used to estimate the UV:TS ratio under various scenarios, and examines the influences of atmospheric constituents, such as aerosols, precipitable water vapor or ozone, and of the local surface characteristics (albedo), on the predicted UV.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Refining instrument response functions with 3-D Monte Carlo simulations of differential hard x-ray spectrometers

Three x-ray spectrometers – the hard x-ray detector (HXRD), the bremsstrahlung MeV x-ray spectrometer (BMXS), and the hard x-ray image plate (HXIP) – areused here to estimate hot-electron bremsstrahlung spectrum parameters for inertial confinement fusion experiments on OMEGA. Using 1-D deterministically calculated response functions, they show significantly different estimates of spectrum slope temperature. For all three detectors, 3-D Geant4 Monte Carlo simulations are developed and used to compute instrument response functions. Simulations explain features in raw image-plate data, but only significantly improve systematic errors in predicted detector channel signals for BMXS and do not entirely eliminate the discrepancy between estimates of slope temperature.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2017

Coupled land surface–subsurface hydrogeophysical inverse modeling to estimate soil organic carbon content and explore associated hydrological and thermal dynamics in the Arctic tundra

Quantitative characterization of soil organic carbon (OC) content is essential due to its significant impacts on surface–subsurface hydrological–thermal processes and microbial decomposition of OC, which both in turn are important for predicting carbon–climate feedbacks. While such quantification is particularly important in the vulnerable organic-rich Arctic region, it is challenging to achieve due to the general limitations of conventional core sampling and analysis methods, and to the extremely dynamic nature of hydrological–thermal processes associated with annual freeze–thaw events. In this study, we develop and test an inversion scheme that can flexibly use single or multiple datasets – including soil liquid water content, temperature and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data – to estimate the vertical distribution of OC content. Our approach relies on the fact that OC content strongly influences soil hydrological–thermal parameters and, therefore, indirectly controls the spatiotemporal dynamics of soil liquid water content, temperature and their correlated electrical resistivity. We employ the Community Land Model to simulate nonisothermal surface–subsurface hydrological dynamics from the bedrock to the top of canopy, with consideration of land surface processes (e.g., solar radiation balance, evapotranspiration, snow accumulation and melting) and ice–liquid water phase transitions. For inversion, we combine a deterministic and an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) optimization algorithm to estimate a posteriori distributions of desired model parameters. For hydrological–thermal-to-geophysical variable transformation, the simulated subsurface temperature, liquid water content and ice content are explicitly linked to soil electrical resistivity via petrophysical and geophysical models. We validate the developed scheme using different numerical experiments and evaluate the influence of measurement errors and benefit of joint inversion on the estimation of OC and other parameters. We also quantify the propagation of uncertainty from the estimated parameters to prediction of hydrological–thermal responses. We find that, compared to inversion of single dataset (temperature, liquid water content or apparent resistivity), joint inversion of these datasets significantly reduces parameter uncertainty. We find that the joint inversion approach is able to estimate OC and sand content within the shallow active layer (top 0.3 m of soil) with high reliability. Due to the small variations of temperature and moisture within the shallow permafrost (here at about 0.6 m depth), the approach is unable to estimate OC with confidence. However, if the soil porosity is functionally related to the OC and mineral content, which is often observed in organic-rich Arctic soil, the uncertainty of OC estimate at this depth remarkably decreases. Our study documents the value of the new surface–subsurface, deterministic–stochastic inversion approach, as well as the benefit of including multiple types of data to estimate OC and associated hydrological–thermal dynamics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

POF-Darts: Geometric adaptive sampling for probability of failure

We introduce a novel technique, POF-Darts, to estimate the Probability Of Failure based on random disk-packing in the uncertain parameter space. POF-Darts uses hyperplane sampling to explore the unexplored part of the uncertain space. We use the function evaluation at a sample point to determine whether it belongs to failure or non-failure regions, and surround it with a protection sphere region to avoid clustering. We decompose the domain into Voronoi cells around the function evaluations as seeds and choose the radius of the protection sphere depending on the local Lipschitz continuity. As sampling proceeds, regions uncovered with spheres will shrink, improving the estimation accuracy. After exhausting the function evaluation budget, we build a surrogate model using the function evaluations associated with the sample points and estimate the probability of failure by exhaustive sampling of that surrogate. In comparison to other similar methods, our algorithm has the advantages of decoupling the sampling step from the surrogate construction one, the ability to reach target POF values with fewer samples, and the capability of estimating the number and locations of disconnected failure regions, not just the POF value. Furthermore, we present various examples to demonstrate the efficiency of our novel approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Hunting ionic liquids with large electrochemical potential windows

Ionic liquids (ILs) with large electrochemical potential windows (EPWs) are ideally suited to improve the energy and power density of electrical devices for energy storage. However, guidelines are scarcely available for the selection or systematic screening of ILs for practical applications. Here, we present theoretical predictions for the EPW of thousands of cation-anion pairs based on a long-range corrected hybrid density functional theory. The cathodic and anodic potential limits were estimated from the highest occupied molecular orbital and lowest unoccupied molecular orbital energies of individual cations and anions. The approximate method predicts EPWs in reasonable agreement with existing experimental data for several commonly used ionic systems and can be used as a screening tool for a large library of ILs. Five most stable anions, with the cathode stability in the order of B[CN] 4 > PF 6 > BF 4 > BOB > NTf 2 , have been identified. These anions provide the largest EPWs when they are paired with conventional organic cations. The cation stability is reduced upon elongation of the alkyl chain length or branching of the molecular backbone.

catalysis (heterogeneous)↗
DOE OSTI2016

Mammograms restoration by using Wiener filter

Restoration of digital mammograms, as a pre-processing tool, using deconvolution procedures, is analysed. It implies, knowing Modulation Transfer Function (MTF) of the mammography device and the estimation of the mammogram’s noise. Wiener filter is used, as the most objective in mammograms restoration by deconvolution. Using MATLAB program the deconvolution procedures are conducted in two ways with different level of approximation. The first method approximates the noise/signal power ratio by a constant and the second method uses autocorrelation functions of the noise and signals. Abilities and limitations of the methods are analysed and checked by using the raw images of the bar-pattern due to better visualisation of the obtained results. The raw images are obtained at a Computed Radiography (CR) mammography device in Clinical Centre in Podgorica. It is found that quality of the restored image highly depends of knowledge of type and magnitude of noise. In the both methods spatial resolution of the restored images are improved, but much better in a case where autocorrelation functions of the noise and signal are used. This procedure is proposed as an objective pre-processing tool to put back imperfectness of mammography devices.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2014

Quantum Entanglement of Matter and Geometry in Large Systems

Standard quantum mechanics and gravity are used to estimate the mass and size of idealized gravitating systems where position states of matter and geometry become indeterminate. It is proposed that well-known inconsistencies of standard quantum field theory with general relativity on macroscopic scales can be reconciled by nonstandard, nonlocal entanglement of field states with quantum states of geometry. Wave functions of particle world lines are used to estimate scales of geometrical entanglement and emergent locality. Simple models of entanglement predict coherent fluctuations in position of massive bodies, of Planck scale origin, measurable on a laboratory scale, and may account for the fact that the information density of long lived position states in Standard Model fields, which is determined by the strong interactions, is the same as that determined holographically by the cosmological constant.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Influence of high temperature on solid state nuclear track detector parameters

This work concerns the influence of high temperatures on tracks induced in solid state nuclear track detectors of the CR-39/PM-355 type. In order to investigate this effect some samples of the detectors were irradiated with energetic protons and {alpha} particles and subsequently heated under controlled temperatures for different periods of time. After heating the samples were etched and the track evolution was analyzed using an optical microscope. The bulk etch rate V{sub B} of the PM-355 material was also determined as a function of heating temperature. The track etch rate V{sub T} values were estimated for craters induced by protons and {alpha} particles from track diameter measurement as a function of heating temperature.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2019

Geometric Estimation of Multivariate Dependency

This paper proposes a geometric estimator of dependency between a pair of multivariate random variables. The proposed estimator of dependency is based on a randomly permuted geometric graph (the minimal spanning tree) over the two multivariate samples. This estimator converges to a quantity that we call the geometric mutual information (GMI), which is equivalent to the Henze–Penrose divergence. between the joint distribution of the multivariate samples and the product of the marginals. The GMI has many of the same properties as standard MI but can be estimated from empirical data without density estimation; making it scalable to large datasets. The proposed empirical estimator of GMI is simple to implement, involving the construction of an minimal spanning tree (MST) spanning over both the original data and a randomly permuted version of this data. We establish asymptotic convergence of the estimator and convergence rates of the bias and variance for smooth multivariate density functions belonging to a Hölder class. We demonstrate the advantages of our proposed geometric dependency estimator in a series of experiments.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Alpert multi-wavelets for functional inverse problems: direct optimization and deep learning

Computational engineering models often contain unknown entities (e.g. parameters, initial and boundary conditions) that require estimation from other measured observable data. Estimating such unknown entities is challenging when they involve spatio-temporal fields because such functional variables often require an infinite-dimensional representation. Here, we address this problem by transforming an unknown functional field using Alpert wavelet bases and truncating the resulting spectrum. Hence the problem reduces to the estimation of few coefficients that can be performed using common optimization methods. We apply this method on a one-dimensional heat transfer problem where we estimate the heat source field varying in both time and space. The observable data is comprised of temperature measured at several thermocouples in the domain. This latter is composed of either copper or stainless steel. The optimization using our method based on wavelets is able to estimate the heat source with an error between 5% and 7%. We analyze the effect of the domain material and number of thermocouples as well as the sensitivity to the initial guess of the heat source. Finally, we estimate the unknown heat source using a different approach based on deep learning techniques where we consider the input and output of a multi-layer perceptron in wavelet form. We find that this deep learning approach is more accurate than the optimization approach with errors below 4%.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Quantifying Aerosol Direct Effects from Broadband Irradiance and Spectral Aerosol Optical Depth Observations

We outline a methodology using broadband and spectral irradiances to quantify aerosol direct effects on the surface diffuse shortwave (SW) irradiance. Best Estimate Flux data span a 13 year timeframe at the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. Screened clear-sky irradiances and aerosol optical depth (AOD), for solar zenith angles ≤ 65°, are used to estimate clear-sky diffuse irradiances. We validate against detected clear-sky observations from SGP’s Basic Radiation System (BRS). BRS diffuse irradiances were in accordance with estimates, producing a root-mean-square error and mean bias errors of 4.0 W/m2 and -1.4 W/m2, respectively. Absolute differences show 99% of estimates within ±10 W/m2 (10%) of the mean BRS observations. Clear-sky diffuse estimates are used to derive quantitative estimates of aerosol radiative effects, represented as the aerosol diffuse irradiance (ADI). ADI is the contribution of diffuse SW to global SW, attributable to scattering of atmospheric transmission by natural plus anthropogenic aerosols. Estimated slope for the ADI as a function of AOD indicates an increase of ~22 W/m2 in diffuse SW for every 0.1 increase in AOD. Such significant increases in the diffuse fraction could possibly increase photosynthesis. Annual mean ADI is 28.2 W/m2, and heavy aerosol loading at SGP provides up to a maximum increase of 120 W/m2 in diffuse SW over background conditions. With regard to seasonal variation, the mean diffuse forcings are 17.2, 33.3, 39.0, and 23.6 W/m2 for winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively.

broadband↗
DOE OSTI2016

Centrality dependence of ψ(2S) suppression in p-Pb collisions at s N N = 5.02 $$ {\sqrt{s}}_{\mathrm{NN}}=5.02 $$ TeV

The inclusive production of the ψ(2S) charmonium state was studied as a function of centrality in p-Pb collisions at the nucleon-nucleon center of mass energy √ s NN = 5.02 TeV at the CERN LHC. The measurement was performed with the ALICE detector in the center of mass rapidity ranges -4.46 < y cms < -2.96 and 2.03 < y cms < 3.53, down to zero transverse momentum, by reconstructing the ψ(2S) decay to a muon pair. The ψ(2S) production cross section σ ψ(2S) is presented as a function of the collision centrality, which is estimated through the energy deposited in forward rapidity calorimeters. The relative strength of nuclear effects on the ψ(2S) and on the corresponding 1S charmonium state J/ψ is then studied by means of the double ratio of cross sections [σ ψ(2S) /σ J/ψ ] pPb /[σ ψ (2S) /σ J/ψ ] pp between p-Pb and pp collisions, and by the values of the nuclear modification factors for the two charmonium states. The results show a large suppression of ψ(2S) production relative to the J/ψ at backward (negative) rapidity, corresponding to the flight direction of the Pb-nucleus, while at forward (positive) rapidity the suppressions of the two states are comparable. Finally, comparisons to results from lower energy experiments and to available theoretical models are presented.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

$t\bar{t}b\bar{b}$ at the LHC: on the size of corrections and b -jet definitions

We report on the calculation of the next-to-leading order QCD corrections to the production of a $t\bar t$ pair in association with two heavy-flavour jets. We concentrate on the di-lepton $t\bar t$ decay channel at the LHC with $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV. The computation is based on pp → $e^+ν_eμ^-\bar{ν}_μb\bar{b}b\bar{b}$ matrix elements and includes all resonant and non-resonant diagrams, interferences and off-shell effects of the top quark and the W gauge boson. As it is customary for such studies, results are presented in the form of inclusive and differential fiducial cross sections. We extensively investigate the dependence of our results upon variation of renormalisation and factorisation scales and parton distribution functions in the quest for an accurate estimate of the theoretical uncertainties. We additionally study the impact of the contributions induced by the bottom-quark parton density. Results presented here are particularly relevant for measurements of $t\bar{t}H(H → b\bar{b})$ and the determination of the Higgs coupling to the top quark. In addition, they might be used for precise measurements of the top-quark fiducial cross sections and to investigate top-quark decay modelling at the LHC.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2018

Logarithmic Superdiffusion in Two Dimensional Driven Lattice Gases

The spreading of density fluctuations in two-dimensional driven diffusive systems is marginally anomalous. Mode coupling theory predicts that the diffusivity in the direction of the drive diverges with time as (ln t){sup 2/3} with a prefactor depending on the macroscopic current-density relation and the diffusion tensor of the fluctuating hydrodynamic field equation. Here we present the first numerical verification of this behavior for a particular version of the two-dimensional asymmetric exclusion process. Particles jump strictly asymmetrically along one of the lattice directions and symmetrically along the other, and an anisotropy parameter p governs the ratio between the two rates. Using a novel massively parallel coupling algorithm that strongly reduces the fluctuations in the numerical estimate of the two-point correlation function, we are able to accurately determine the exponent of the logarithmic correction. In addition, the variation of the prefactor with p provides a stringent test of mode coupling theory.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Multi-Region SEIR Model Incorporating Inter-County Mobility and Time-Dependent Transmission Dynamics: Application to COVID-19 Disease Outbreak Data in North Carolina.

Classical infectious disease compartmental models typically do not incorporate spatial heterogeneity or mobility. We develop a multi-region susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model in which disease dynamics are coupled via inter-region mobility and the transmission rate is both region and time dependent. We calibrate the model using rolling averages of daily COVID-19 data in all 100 North Carolina counties. Mobility parameters are prescribed using daily inter-county commuter data. The number of transmission rate parameters is substantially reduced by hypothesizing that the dynamics correlate with county-level population density. Parameter estimation is carried out using several objective functions with error terms at different scales. An additive combination of least squares error at the county-level and the state-level, along with a quadratic transmission rate polynomial, yields the lowest overall error at both spatial scales. The calibrated model is used to simulate regional effects of perturbing disease transmission rates in adjacent counties and to illustrate effects of the state’s mobility infrastructure on disease dynamics and spread for a new disease outbreak.

COVID-19 modeling↗
DOE OSTI2016

Revisiting thermodynamics and kinetic diffusivities of uranium–niobium with Bayesian uncertainty analysis

In this paper, thermodynamic and kinetic diffusivities of uranium–niobium (U–Nb) are re-assessed by means of the CALPHAD (CALculation of PHAse Diagram) methodology. In order to improve the consistency and reliability of the assessments, first-principles calculations are coupled with CALPHAD. In particular, heats of formation of γ -U–Nb are estimated and verified using various density-functional theory (DFT) approaches. These thermochemistry data are then used as constraints to guide the thermodynamic optimization process in such a way that the mutual-consistency between first-principles calculations and CALPHAD assessment is satisfactory. In addition, long-term aging experiments are conducted in order to generate new phase equilibria data at the γ 2 /α+γ 2 boundary. These data are meant to verify the thermodynamic model. Assessment results are generally in good agreement with experiments and previous calculations, without showing the artifacts that were observed in previous modeling. The mutual-consistent thermodynamic description is then used to evaluate atomic mobility and diffusivity of γ-U–Nb. Finally, Bayesian analysis is conducted to evaluate the uncertainty of the thermodynamic model and its impact on the system's phase stability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗