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DOE OSTI2026

Intelligent experiments through real-time AI: Fast Data Processing and Autonomous Detector Control for sPHENIX and future EIC detectors (Phase-I)

With an ever increasing demand for high precision data from modern detectors for discovery science and precision measurements, all major high energy nuclear and particle experiments, current and future, are facing the challenge on how to deal with the large volume of raw data generated from sophisticated state-of-the-art detectors in high rate collisions. These goals need to be balanced with available hardware and cost limits on DAQ (Data AcQuisition system) bandwidth and offline computing resources to capture, store and process the signal events. Two prototypical examples are the upcoming sPHENIX experiment, the DOE next generation heavy ion physics experiment at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider at BNL, and the future EIC experiments that are planned to be online circa 2030.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Emergency Management of Tomorrow Research: Emergency Operations Center of the Future Tabletop Exercise Nashua, NH Tabletop Exercise

As part of the Emergency Management (EM) of Tomorrow Research (EMOTR) program, sponsored by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology (S&T) Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) developed concepts for the Emergency Operations Center (EOC) of the Future to provide recommendations to assist DHS S&T in future decision-making with regards to research and development (R&D) and investments toward establishing a framework for a national, coordinated approach to EM. PNNL is conducting tabletop exercises (TTXs) designed to assess the impacts and benefits of emerging technologies on EM organizations.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Emergency Management of Tomorrow Research: Emergency Operations Center of the Future Seattle, WA Tabletop Exercise

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Emergency Management of Tomorrow Research: Emergency Operations Center of the Future Madison, WI Tabletop Exercise

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Intelligent Experiments Through Real-time AI: Fast Data Processing and Autonomous Detector Control for sPHENIX and Future EIC Detectors (Final Report)

The overall vision of this project was to integrate real-time artificial intelligence (AI) directly into the data acquisition and detector-control systems of nuclear physics experiments, including both fast online event selection and an autonomous detector-control feedback loop. The work carried out under the award focused on the fast online event-selection half of that vision: the efficient recording of low-momentum heavy-flavor (HF) hadron decays in proton-proton collisions at the sPHENIX experiment at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC)—an observable that requires fast tracking and topological trigger selection not previously demonstrated at RHIC, and that is essential for QCD studies at future facilities such as the Electron-Ion Collider (EIC). The autonomous detector-control (GPU-based feedback) component named in the project title remained a design concept and was not implemented under this award. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) group led the offline simulation and data processing needed to train the machine-learning (ML) models, the translation of trained models to Field-Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) firmware using the hls4ml framework, and the physics validation of heavy-flavor reconstruction. Over the award period, the team developed and hardware-tested the principal components of an AI-based heavy-flavor trigger on simulated and recorded sPHENIX tracker data: a software Bipartite Graph Attention Network (BiGAT) trigger model reaching > 95% signal efficiency at 99% background rejection; an FPGA-native hit clusterizer matching the offline clustering; smaller networks synthesized to FPGA within the required sub-10 µs latency; and an assembled decoder–clusterizer–inference firmware chain exercised on the FELIX readout board. A complete, fully integrated hardware demonstrator was not finished within the award period. This report documents the project goals, the MIT group’s contributions, the technical accomplishments, and the outlook toward applications at the future EIC ePIC detector.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

“Snowmass’21 Discussions on Future HEP Facilities in the US

The US particle physics community planning exercise (a.k.a. “Snowmass”) is organized every 7 to 9 years to provide a forum for discussions among the entire particle physics community to develop a scientific vision for the future of particle physics in the U.S. and its international partners. The Snowmass'21 Accelerator Frontier activities include discussions on high-energy hadron and lepton colliders, high-intensity beams for neutrino research and for “Physics Beyond Colliders”, accelerator technologies, science, education and outreach as well as the progress of core accelerator technologies, including RF, magnets, targets and sources. Here we summarize the Snowmass'21 discussions on future HEP accelerator facilities.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Probability of Future Observations Exceeding One-Sided, Normal, Upper Tolerance Limits

Normal tolerance limits are frequently used in dynamic environments specifications of aerospace systems as a method to account for aleatory variability in the environments. Upper tolerance limits, when used in this way, are computed from records of the environment and used to enforce conservatism in the specification by describing upper extreme values the environment may take in the future. Components and systems are designed to withstand these extreme loads to ensure they do not fail under normal use conditions. The degree of conservatism in the upper tolerance limits is controlled by specifying the coverage and confidence level (usually written in “coverage/confidence” form). Moreover, in high-consequence systems it is common to specify tolerance limits at 95% or 99% coverage and confidence at the 50% or 90% level. Despite the ubiquity of upper tolerance limits in the aerospace community, analysts and decision-makers frequently misinterpret their meaning. The misinterpretation extends into the standards that govern much of the acceptance and qualification of commercial and government aerospace systems. As a result, the risk of a future observation of the environment exceeding the upper tolerance limit is sometimes significantly underestimated by decision makers. This note explains the meaning of upper tolerance limits and a related measure, the upper prediction limit. So, the objective of this work is to clarify the probability of exceeding these limits in flight so that decision-makers can better understand the risk associated with exceeding design and test levels during flight and balance the cost of design and development with that of mission failure.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

U.S. Wind and Solar PV Supply Curves with Future Land-use Change

This dataset provides future supply curves representing the total resource potential for land-based wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment in the conterminous United States after accounting for the impact of land-use and land-cover change (LULC). We use LULC projections from 2010 to 2050 developed based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios. The LULC projections are subsequently fed into the renewable energy potential model (reV), which estimates total available wind and solar capacity after excluding non-developable land. Supply curves are provided for four IPCC scenarios in 2050: A1B, A2, B1, and B2. As a baseline, we also provide the supply curve from the B2 scenario in 2010. In addition to the supply curves, we also provide representative wind and solar generation profiles for each supply curve point. These generation profiles are provided as capacity factors and are based on a 2012 weather year using NSRDB and WindToolkit resource data. For more details on the supply curve and profile datasets included here please refer to README. Additional information on the supply curves and the LULC projections used to generate them, as well as an analysis of their impact on wind and solar deployment under decarbonization can be found in the publication linked below: "U.S. Wind and Solar PV Supply Curves with Future Land-use Change Publication".

Array↗

DOE OSTI2023

Nuclear history, politics, and futures from (A)toms-to(Z)oom: Design and deployment of a remote-learning special-topics course for nuclear engineering education

To address the lack of familiarity with nuclear history common among nuclear engineers and physicists, we outline the design and deployment of a special-topics course entitled “NE290: Nuclear History, Politics, and Futures” throughout which we contextualize the importance of the field at its inception, in current affairs, and in future endeavors. We argue that understanding this history is paramount in internalizing a sense of respect for the scientific, technical, and sociological ramifications of an unlocked atom—as well as its perils. We begin by outlining the gaps in secondary educational offerings for nuclear history and their importance in consideration with nontechnical engineering guidelines. We then outline a number of ABET specifications as pedagogical goals for NE290 from which we derive a list of target student learning objectives. Next, we outline the NE290 syllabus in terms of assignments and an overview of course content in the form of a class timeline. We provide an extensive description of the materials and teaching methodologies for the four units of NE290: Twentieth-Century Physics, Physics in WWII, the Early Cold War, and the Late Cold War and Modern Era. We detail the sequence of lectures across the course and historical timelines leading up to a showcasing of NE290 final projects which mirror in creativity the novelty of course offering. Because NE290 was first offered during Spring 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic, additional measures in the form of new tools were used to augment the mandate of remote learning. In particular, we leveraged the newfound ubiquity of videoconferencing technology to recruit geographically diverse guest lecturers and used the MIRO tool for virtual whiteboarding. Lastly, we provide an accounting of course outcomes drawn from student feedback which—in tandem with the complete distribution of course material—facilitates the integration of nuclear history into the curriculum for the wider nuclear engineering and physics communities.

Berliner, Aaron J.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Making BREAD: Biomimetic Strategies for Artificial Intelligence Now and in the Future

The Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution foretold of during the 1960s is well underway in the second decade of the twenty first century. Its period of phenomenal growth likely lies ahead. AI-operated machines and technologies will extend the reach of Homo sapiens far beyond the biological constraints imposed by evolution: outwards further into deep space, as well as inwards into the nano-world of DNA sequences and relevant medical applications. And yet, we believe, there are crucial lessons that biology can offer that will enable a prosperous future for AI. For machines in general, and for AI's especially, operating over extended periods or in extreme environments will require energy usage orders of magnitudes more efficient than exists today. In many operational environments, energy sources will be constrained. The AI's design and function may be dependent upon the type of energy source, as well as its availability and accessibility. Any plans for AI devices operating in a challenging environment must begin with the question of how they are powered, where fuel is located, how energy is stored and made available to the machine, and how long the machine can operate on specific energy units. While one of the key advantages of AI use is to reduce the dimensionality of a complex problem, the fact remains that some energy is required for functionality. Hence, the materials and technologies that provide the needed energy represent a critical challenge toward future use scenarios of AI and should be integrated into their design. Here we look to the brain and other aspects of biology as inspiration for Biomimetic Research for Energy-efficient AI Designs (BREAD).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Detector Simulation Challenges for Future Accelerator Experiments

Detector simulation is a key component for studies on prospective future high-energy colliders, the design, optimization, testing and operation of particle physics experiments, and the analysis of the data collected to perform physics measurements. This review starts from the current state of the art technology applied to detector simulation in high-energy physics and elaborates on the evolution of software tools developed to address the challenges posed by future accelerator programs beyond the HL-LHC era, into the 2030–2050 period. New accelerator, detector, and computing technologies set the stage for an exercise in how detector simulation will serve the needs of the high-energy physics programs of the mid 21st century, and its potential impact on other research domains.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Trends and future outlooks in circularity of desalination membrane materials

Reverse osmosis desalination is one of the most important and increasingly popular technologies to augment available water resources. Central to the technology is a thin-film-composite polyamide membrane capable of separating pure water from seawater or brine. Since its conception and initiation, the membrane industry has followed a linear life-cycle scheme. However, increasing production costs of fossil-based materials and more stringent environmental regulations drive the initiatives to adapt to a circular economy of membrane materials. In this perspective, we briefly summarize the pressing issues in the state-of-the-art membrane industry, then discuss the opportunities in future technology innovations with a focus on sustainable membrane manufacturing and recycling, and lastly provided an outlook for future membrane design and fabrication towards a circular economy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Contemporary and Future-Scenario Substantial-Precipitation Events in the Missouri River Basin Using Object-Oriented Analysis

The Missouri River Basin is the largest single river basin in the United States, and, as such, it plays an important role in natural ecosystems as well as the country’s economy, through agriculture, hydroelectric power generation, and transportation. Episodes of heavy precipitation can have a substantial negative impact on all these aspects of the basin, so understanding how well these episodes are simulated and projected to change in the future climate is important. We analyzed contemporary and projected mid-century behavior of heavy-precipitation episodes using an object-oriented analysis to diagnose short-term (≥5-day) and extended-period (≥30-day) events with substantial precipitation, using PRISM gridded, observed precipitation and RegCM4 regional-climate simulations that used outputs from two different GCMs for boundary conditions. The simulations were produced for the North American portion of the CORDEX program. A 25 km grid was used for the simulations and for aggregated PRISM precipitation. Overall, the simulated contemporary-climate events compared favorably with the PRISM events’ frequency and duration. The simulated event areas tended to be larger than the areas in the PRISM events, suggesting that the effective resolution of the simulations is greater than 25 km. Event areas and durations change little going from contemporary to scenario climate. The short-term events increase in frequency by an amount commensurate with the increase in mean precipitation simulated for the basis. However, the extended-term events showed little change in frequency, despite the average precipitation increase. Roughly half the extended-period events overlapped with at least one short-term event in both the observations and the simulations. Extended-period events that overlap a short-term event generally have larger areas and longer durations compared to their counterparts with no overlapping short-term events. Understanding the climate dynamics yielding the two types of extended-period events could be useful for assessing future changes in the Missouri River Basin’s heavy precipitation events and their impact.

Fisel, Brandon J.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling and Detection of Future Cyber-Enabled DSM Data Attacks

Demand-Side Management (DSM) is an essential tool to ensure power system reliability and stability. In future smart grids, certain portions of a customer’s load usage could be under the automatic control of a cyber-enabled DSM program, which selectively schedules loads as a function of electricity prices to improve power balance and grid stability. In this scenario, the security of DSM cyberinfrastructure will be critical as advanced metering infrastructure and communication systems are susceptible to cyber-attacks. Such attacks, in the form of false data injections, can manipulate customer load profiles and cause metering chaos and energy losses in the grid. The feedback mechanism between load management on the consumer side and dynamic price schemes employed by independent system operators can further exacerbate attacks. To study how this feedback mechanism may worsen attacks in future cyber-enabled DSM programs, we propose a novel mathematical framework for (i) modeling the nonlinear relationship between load management and real-time pricing, (ii) simulating residential load data and prices, (iii) creating cyber-attacks, and (iv) detecting said attacks. In this framework, we first develop time-series forecasts to model load demand and use them as inputs to an elasticity model for the price-demand relationship in the DSM loop. This work then investigates the behavior of such a feedback loop under intentional cyber-attacks. We simulate and examine load-price data under different DSM-participation levels with three types of random additive attacks: ramp, sudden, and point attacks. We conduct two investigations for the detection of DSM attacks. The first studies a supervised learning approach, with various classification models, and the second studies the performance of parametric and nonparametric change point detectors. Results conclude that higher amounts of DSM participation can exacerbate ramp and sudden attacks leading to better detection of such attacks, especially with supervised learning classifiers. We also find that nonparametric detection outperforms parametric for smaller user pools, and random point attacks are the hardest to detect with any method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Novel Ultrafast Lu2O3:Yb Ceramics for Future HEP Applications

Inorganic scintillators activated by charge transfer luminescence Yb3+ are considered promising ultrafast material to break the ps timing barrier for future high energy physics applications. Inorganic scintillators in ceramic form are potentially more cost-effective than crystals because of their lower fabrication temperature and no need for aftergrowth mechanical processing. This paper reports an investigation on Lu2O3:Yb and Lu2xY2(1−x)O3:Yb scintillating ceramic samples fabricated by Radiation Monitoring Devices Inc. All samples show X-ray excited luminescence peaked at 370 nm. Ultrafast decay time of 1.1 ns was observed by using a microchannel plate-photomultiplier tube-based test bench at Caltech. Considering its intrinsic high density (9.4 g/cm3), Lu2O3:Yb ceramics are promising for future time of fight application for high energy physics experiments.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Future of Experimental Muon Physics

In this talk, I discuss a possible future for the global muon physics program. I focus on the future of flavor studies, precision measurements and searches that can be pursued with a new class of muonium beam sources, and emerging practical applications of muons in the industrial, academic, and government sectors.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Light-Duty Passenger Vehicles in China: Towards a Carbon-Neutral Future

Vehicle electrification is considered a pathway for on-road transportation decarbonization in China. Different from the conventional gasoline vehicles whose emissions are mainly released from vehicle tailpipes, emissions of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are from the upstream processes of electricity generation and vehicle manufacturing, thus a comprehensive lifecycle analysis and comparison of BEVs with gasoline vehicles is required to quantify the emission mitigation benefit of vehicle electrification and determine the path to a carbon-neutral future. In the study, we compare the cradle-to-grave (C2G) lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of gasoline and electric vehicles in China and analyze the greenhouse gas emission reduction of vehicle electrification in different provinces. Results show that under the current technologies, the national average C2G GHG emissions for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) of 100 miles (i.e., 160 km) and 300 miles (i.e., 480 km) all-electric range (AER) are 231 and 279 g CO2eq/km, respectively, 22% and 5% lower than those for gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). Improving vehicle fuel efficiency by hybridizing gasoline ICEVs can effectively reduce C2G emissions to 212 g CO2eq/km. At the provincial level, C2G GHG emissions of BEVs vary according to the provincial electricity mix. In eight provinces, C2G GHG emissions of BEVs with 300 miles AER (BEV300s) are higher than those of gasoline ICEVs due to the GHG-intensive coal-based electricity mix. In the future scenario, with low carbon fuels (such as high-level bioethanol blending gasoline) and electricity decarbonization, the national average C2G emissions of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and BEV300s can be reduced to 55 and 73 g CO2eq/km, respectively. Further decrease of C2G GHG emissions relies on reducing vehicle-cycle emissions from material processing and vehicle component manufacturing.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Future Projections of Lifecycle Cost and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Light-Duty Vehicles

Vehicles with electrified powertrains carry the promise of significant reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from a lifecycle analysis (LCA) standpoint compared to conventional internal combustion engine (CICE) vehicles. However, trade-offs exist between different types of electrified powertrains in terms of cost, consumer acceptance, and GHG reduction efficacy for different operating conditions. The open-source tool CarGHG was developed with an aim to enable the exploration of a plethora of parametric study scenarios, including the cost of electrification technologies, different driving patterns and charging habits, and the cost and carbon intensity of electricity and fuel blends. This paper introduces the framework of CarGHG, then showcases total cost of ownership (TCO) and LCA GHG results for select models of light-duty vehicles. Another capability of CarGHG, which is the ability to estimate the performance of “virtual” vehicle models (perceived vehicle design specifications not yet on the market), is utilized to explore future scenarios of electrification and low-carbon fuel blends for Small Sports Utility Vehicles (SUVs), a popular light-duty vehicle segment in North America. With opportunities, but also uncertainties, in future scenarios, it is likely wise to continue pursuing multiple ways towards the reduction of LCA GHG.

Hamza, Karim↗