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At least 1,027 records · Page 57

Venus upper atmosphere structure

Atmospheric densities of Venus were measured from the orbital decay of the Pioneer Venus from Dec. 9, 1978 to Aug. 7, 1979 near the 16 deg latitude between 140 and 190 km during the entire day. Comparative atmospheric densities on earth at 150 km are higher by a factor of 3.5 with only a 1% diurnal variation; an atmospheric composition, temperature, and density model based on the orbiter atmospheric drag (OAD) vertical structure is presented. The model shows that atomic oxygen is the major component in the Venus atmosphere above 145 km at night and above 160 km during the day with mixing ratios over 0.1 near 140 km; drag measurements indicate O concentrations from 1 x 10 to the 9th/cu cm in daytime to 3 x 10 to the 7th/cu cm at night. It is concluded that the neutral upper atmosphere of Venus is surprisingly insensitive to solar extreme UV variations and changes in the solar wind.

Keating, G. M.↗

Hard X-ray imaging observation of fluctuating bursts

Measurements were done to obtain the one-dimensional sizes of rapidly fluctuating bursts with fast spikes whose rise times are typically about one second, and in some extreme cases less than 0.1 second. The results of two bursts with fast spikes are presented. One has a soft spectrum, and the other has a very hard spectrum. The measured one-dimensional size of both events indicates relatively a small size and simple structure. It can be said, however, that the source size is not so small as expected from its rapid time variations. Therefore, a thermal explanation of these bursts seems to be excluded.

Ohki, K.↗

Expert system validation in prolog

An overview of the Expert System Validation Assistant (EVA) is being implemented in Prolog at the Lockheed AI Center. Prolog was chosen to facilitate rapid prototyping of the structure and logic checkers and since February 1987, we have implemented code to check for irrelevance, subsumption, duplication, deadends, unreachability, and cycles. The architecture chosen is extremely flexible and expansible, yet concise and complementary with the normal interactive style of Prolog. The foundation of the system is in the connection graph representation. Rules and facts are modeled as nodes in the graph and arcs indicate common patterns between rules. The basic activity of the validation system is then a traversal of the connection graph, searching for various patterns the system recognizes as erroneous. To aid in specifying these patterns, a metalanguage is developed, providing the user with the basic facilities required to reason about the expert system. Using the metalanguage, the user can, for example, give the Prolog inference engine the goal of finding inconsistent conclusions among the rules, and Prolog will search the graph intantiations which can match the definition of inconsistency. Examples of code for some of the checkers are provided and the algorithms explained. Technical highlights include automatic construction of a connection graph, demonstration of the use of metalanguage, the A* algorithm modified to detect all unique cycles, general-purpose stacks in Prolog, and a general-purpose database browser with pattern completion.

Stock, Todd↗

SOHO Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) Mission Operations and Data Analysis

The scientific goal of UVCS is to obtain detailed empirical descriptions of the extended solar corona as it evolves from a period of minimum activity to maximum and to use these descriptions to identify and understand the physical processes responsible for coronal heating, solar wind acceleration, coronal mass ejections (CME's), and the phenomena that establish the plasma properties of the solar wind as measured by the CELIAS/SOHO experiment. We must observe a wide range of conditions (e.g., heating rate, impulsive mass ejections, magnetic field opening) in order to choose among competing theoretical explanations of the observed coronal structures and dynamics. During the first year of scientific observations (1 April 1996 through 31 March 1997), the LTVCS made the first extensive ultraviolet spectroscopic observations above the base of the solar corona. Those observations revealed extremely high most probable speeds along the line of sight for O(5+) in polar coronal holes above 2 solar radii from sun center and smaller such speeds for H(0) and protons. Doppler dimming and pumping diagnostics indicated that O(5+) and H(0) I reached supersonic outflow velocities within 2 solar radii. The observations appeared to be consistent with O95+) heating and direct momentum transfer by high frequency MHD waves through ion cyclotron resonance. Equatorial streamers were found to appear much different when observed in O VI, Fe XII and Mg X than when observed in H I Lyman-alpha or visible light. This led G. Noci to suggest that the elemental abundance of O, Fe, and Mg are lower in the dark center region of the O VI streamer image than it is in the brighter outer legs of the streamer. The O VI line ratio indicated a much smaller outflow speed in streamers than in the surrounding coronal holes. Spectroscopic observations of CME's in June and December 1996 showed large Doppler shifts indicating macroscopic flows of up to 200 km/s transverse to the apparent motion of the CME. The December event displayed factor of 500 intensity increases in H I Lyman lines and bright emissions in cool ion lines like C III 977 A indicating that the origin of some of the gas was a prominence. UVCS also observed two comets, several stars and interplanetary hydrogen. In the current reporting period, the initial results were published and detailed analyses including self consistent empirical models were developed. The research results were reported, published or submitted/accepted for publication. New observations were made to uncover additional information about the surprising results of the first year and other new observations revealed more surprises. A UVCS Tutorial was developed to familiarize potential users of UVCS data with the data products, analysis techniques and coronal models needed to analyze the data.

Kohl, John L.↗

Synchrotron-based Infrared Microspectroscopy as a Useful Tool to Study Hydration States of Meteorite Constituents

The meteorites Dho 225 and Dho 735 were recently found in Oman. Studies of their mineralogical and chemical composition suggest that these unusual meteorites are thermally metamorphosed CM2 chondrites [1,2,3]. Similar to Antarctic metamorphosed carbonaceous chondrites, the Dho 225 and Dho 735 are enriched in heavy oxygen compared to normal CMs [1,2]. However, IR studies indicating dehydration of matrix phyllosilicates are needed to confirm that the two new meteorites from Oman are thermally metamorphosed [4]. Synchrotron-based IR microspectroscopy is a new promising technique which allows the acquisition of IR spectra from extremely small samples. Here we demonstrate that this non-destructive technique is a useful tool to study hydration states of carbonaceous chondrites in situ. In addition, we acquired reflectance spectra of bulk powders of the Dho 225 and Dho 735 in the range of 0.3-50 microns.

Moroz, L. V.↗

Practical Application of PRA as an Integrated Design Tool for Space Systems

This paper presents the application of the first comprehensive Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) during the design phase of a joint NASA/NOAA weather satellite program, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Series R (GOES-R). GOES-R is the next generation weather satellite primarily to help understand the weather and help save human lives. PRA has been used at NASA for Human Space Flight for many years. PRA was initially adopted and implemented in the operational phase of manned space flight programs and more recently for the next generation human space systems. Since its first use at NASA, PRA has become recognized throughout the Agency as a method of assessing complex mission risks as part of an overall approach to assuring safety and mission success throughout project lifecycles. PRA is now included as a requirement during the design phase of both NASA next generation manned space vehicles as well as for high priority robotic missions. The influence of PRA on GOES-R design and operation concepts are discussed in detail. The GOES-R PRA is unique at NASA for its early implementation. It also represents a pioneering effort to integrate risks from both Spacecraft (SC) and Ground Segment (GS) to fully assess the probability of achieving mission objectives. PRA analysts were actively involved in system engineering and design engineering to ensure that a comprehensive set of technical risks were correctly identified and properly understood from a design and operations perspective. The analysis included an assessment of SC hardware and software, SC fault management system, GS hardware and software, common cause failures, human error, natural hazards, solar weather and infrastructure (such as network and telecommunications failures, fire). PRA findings directly resulted in design changes to reduce SC risk from micro-meteoroids. PRA results also led to design changes in several SC subsystems, e.g. propulsion, guidance, navigation and control (GNC), communications, mechanisms, and command and data handling (C&DH). The fault tree approach assisted in the development of the fault management system design. Human error analysis, which examined human response to failure, indicated areas where automation could reduce the overall probability of gaps in operation by half. In addition, the PRA brought to light many potential root causes of system disruptions, including earthquakes, inclement weather, solar storms, blackouts and other extreme conditions not considered in the typical reliability and availability analyses. Ultimately the PRA served to identify potential failures that, when mitigated, resulted in a more robust design, as well as to influence the program's concept of operations. The early and active integration of PRA with system and design engineering provided a well-managed approach for risk assessment that increased reliability and availability, optimized lifecyc1e costs, and unified the SC and GS developments.

Kalia, Prince↗

A 12,000-Yr Pollen Record off Cape Hatteras: Pollen Sources and Mechanisms of Pollen Dispersion

Integrating both marine and terrestrial signals from the same sediment core is one of the primary challenges for understanding the role of ocean-atmosphere coupling throughout past climate changes. It is therefore vital to understand how the pollen signal of a given marine record reflects the vegetation changes of the neighboring continent. The comparison between the pollen record of marine core JPC32 (KNR178JPC32) and available terrestrial pollen sequences from eastern North America over the last 12,170 years indicates that the pollen signature off Cape Hatteras gives an integrated image of the regional vegetation encompassing the Pee Dee river, Chesapeake and Delaware hydrographic basins and is reliable in reconstructing the past climate of the adjacent continent. Extremely high quantities of pollen grains included in the marine sediments off Cape Hatteras were transferred from the continent to the sea, at intervals 10,100-8800 cal yr BP, 8300-7500 cal yr BP, 5800- 4300 cal yr BP and 2100-730 cal yr BP, during storm events favored by episodes of rapid sea-level rise in the eastern coast of US. In contrast, pollen grains export was reduced during 12,170-10,150 cal yr BP and 4200- 2200 cal yr BP, during episodes of intense continental dryness and slow sea level rise episodes or lowstands in the eastern coast of US. The near absence of reworked pollen grains in core JPC32 contrasts with the high quantity of reworked material in nearby but deeper located marine sites, suggesting that the JPC32 recordwas not affected by the DeepWestern Boundary Current (DWBC) since the end of the Younger Dryas and should be considered a key site for studying past climate changes in the western North Atlantic.

climate change↗

Landslides in West Coast Metropolitan Areas: The Role of Extreme Weather Events

Rainfall-induced landslides represent a pervasive issue in areas where extreme rainfall intersects complex terrain. A farsighted management of landslide risk requires assessing how landslide hazard will change in coming decades and thus requires, inter alia, that we understand what rainfall events are most likely to trigger landslides and how global warming will affect the frequency of such weather events. We take advantage of 9 years of landslide occurrence data compiled by collating Google news reports and of a high-resolution satellite-based daily rainfall data to investigate what weather triggers landslide along the West Coast US. We show that, while this landslide compilation cannot provide consistent and widespread monitoring everywhere, it captures enough of the events in the major urban areas that it can be used to identify the relevant relationships between landslides and rainfall events in Puget Sound, the Bay Area, and greater Los Angeles. In all these regions, days that recorded landslides have rainfall distributions that are skewed away from dry and low-rainfall accumulations and towards heavy intensities. However, large daily accumulation is the main driver of enhanced hazard of landslides only in Puget Sound. There, landslide are often clustered in space and time and major events are primarily driven by synoptic scale variability, namely "atmospheric rivers" of high humidity air hitting anywhere along the West Coast, and the interaction of frontal system with the coastal orography. The relationship between landslide occurrences and daily rainfall is less robust in California, where antecedent precipitation (in the case of the Bay area) and the peak intensity of localized downpours at sub-daily time scales (in the case of Los Angeles) are key factors not captured by the same-day accumulations. Accordingly, we suggest that the assessment of future changes in landslide hazard for the entire the West Coast requires consideration of future changes in the occurrence and intensity of atmospheric rivers, in their duration and clustering, and in the occurrence of short-duration (sub-daily) extreme rainfall as well. Major regional landslide events, in which multiple occurrences are recorded in the catalog for the same day, are too rare to allow a statistical characterization of their triggering events, but a case study analysis indicates that a variety of synoptic-scale events can be involved, including not only atmospheric rivers but also broader cold- and warm-front precipitation. That a news-based catalog of landslides is accurate enough to allow the identification of different landslide/ rainfall relationships in the major urban areas along the US West Coast suggests that this technology can potentially be used for other English-language cities and could become an even more powerful tool if expanded to other languages and non-traditional news sources, such as social media.

landslides↗

CALIPSO Level 3 Stratospheric Aerosol Product: Version 1.00 Algorithm Description and Initial Assessment

In August 2018,the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) project released a new level 3 stratospheric aerosol profile data product derived from nearly 12 years of measurements acquired by the space-borne Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP).This monthly averaged, gridded level 3 product is based on version 4.2 of the CALIOP level 1 and level 2 data products, which feature significantly improved calibration that now makes it possible to reliably retrieve profiles of stratospheric aerosol extinction and backscatter coefficients. This paper describes the science algorithm and data handling techniques that were developed to generate the CALIPSO version 1.00 level 3 stratospheric aerosol profile product. Further, we show that the retrieved extinction profiles capture the major stratospheric perturbations over the last decade resulting from volcanic eruptions, extreme smoke events, and signatures of stratospheric dynamics. Initial assessment of the product by inter-comparison with the stratospheric aerosol retrievals from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) on the International Space Station (ISS) indicates good agreement in the tropical stratospheric aerosol layer (30oN-30oS),where the average difference between zonal mean extinction profiles is typically less than 25% between 20km and 30km. However, differences can exceed 100% in the very low aerosol loading regimes found above 25 km at higher latitudes.

Jayanta Kar↗

Cleanroom Microbes Survive Drying, Vacuum, and Proton Irradiation

Introduction : The goal of planetary protection at NASA is to mitigate the risk of contaminating sensitive target bodies with biological life. While many cleaning procedures have been put in place to reduce bioburden on spacecraft, microbes are experts at evolving to survive harsh conditions. Specifically, the dry, low-nutrient environment of a cleanroom (commonly used for assembly of spacecraft) can represent an environment where extremophiles can survive. Methods : Scientists at NASA MSFC wished to gather a snapshot of the microbial population within a variety of cleanrooms on site. A study was undertaken to collect air, surface, and floor samples from clean-rooms and isolate unique morphologies. From this study, 95 isolates were collected and saved in a microbial library. About 86% of these were identified at least to a genus level. Following identification, 24 microbes were selected, based on a literature review, as potential extremophiles. These were grown in liquid cultures, diluted to a set optical density, washed with water, and then applied to a sterilized Kapton coupon. Droplets were allowed to dry overnight in a biosafety cabinet. Coupons were then installed in a pelletron and pumped down to high vacuum (~1E-6 Torr). Samples were then subjected 100 keV protons at a fluence of 2x10 15 p+/cm 2 up to 4x10 15 p+/cm 2 . Following exposure, samples were returned to the microbiology lab where they were pro-cessed by submerging in water, vortexing, and then plating either droplets or spread plates. Recovery data collected was qualitative with a ranking or +, minor, or – for growth. Some selected radiotolerant strains were sequenced using the Illumina sequencing platform. The resulting genomes were annotated with the Rapid Annotations using Subsystems Technology (RAST) server and analyzed for conserved and unique stress response relevant genomic signatures to identify clues related to specific tolerances. Results and Discussion : After five rounds of proton radiation, we narrowed our isolates to five, non-spore forming bacteria that demonstrated survival: Arthrobacter koreensis, Paenarthrobacter nitroguajacolicus, Mycetocola manganoxydans , and an Erwinia sp. Furthermore, we exposed these four microbes to 254 nm wavelength light at an intensity of 80 W/m 2 at a distance of ~18 cm for 10 minutes. Only A. koreensis demonstrated survival following UV exposure. Finally, we performed whole genome sequencing on the four strains to look for genetic markers of stress resistance. When we compared the genomes of the four strains, we found that genes coding for GGDEF and EAL domains with PAS/PAC sensors were only found in A. koreensis . These domains, modulated by PAS/PAC sensors, are hypothesized to facilitate survival under drying, desiccation, and proton irradiation. Drying and Desiccation : PAS domains sense hydration changes and modulate GGDEF and EAL domain activity to adjust c-di-GMP levels, enhancing resistance to desiccation. For instance, in Pseudomonas aeruginosa , the PAS domain of RbdA modulates activity under varying hydration conditions, affecting stress responses [1]. Proton Irradiation : Proton irradiation causes oxidative stress, leading to ROS generation. PAS domains detect this stress and modulate GGDEF and EAL domains to manage oxidative stress responses. In Shewanella , EAL domain proteins modulated by PAS sensors help bacteria adapt to extreme conditions [2]. These genes upregulate other stress response genes, protecting membrane function, protein stability, DNA repair, and antioxidant defenses. The modulation of c-di-GMP by PAS domains is crucial for bacterial adaptation to stress conditions, enabling dynamic physio-logical adjustments [3]. Understanding these mechanisms provides insights into bacterial stress responses and strategies for controlling bacterial growth [4]. Conclusions : These findings indicate that clean-rooms harbor extremophile microbes that may be able to survive conditions in deep space. Furthermore, while we identified certain stress-response genes that may be at least partly responsible for the phenotypes observed in this study, there are likely unidentified genes or characteristics about A. koreensis , and other bacteria, that may allow them to survive in harsh environments. Future studies will focus on identifying these unknown genes and characteristics, further elucidating the mechanisms of extremophile survival and potentially informing the development of new biotechnologies for space exploration and other extreme environments.

Chelsi Cassilly↗

Hydroclimate-coupled framework for assessing power system resilience under summer drought and climate change

Extreme drought, exacerbated by climate change, increasingly threatens power system resilience, and a systematic assessment of such impacts is challenging due to the unpredictability of drought and their associated modeling complexity. Here, to address the challenge, this research develops a hydroclimate-coupled power system resilience assessment framework that enables systematic modeling of drought and climate change impacts on generation, transmission, and demand sectors. Applying the framework to the 2025 Eastern U.S. power grid — comprising 6,055 at-risk generators — under climate-induced summer drought scenarios (including SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) from 2023 to 2100, the study finds that climate-induced droughts could jeopardize the power system’s reliability to a greater extent than historical events, potentially leading to widespread load shedding. More specifically, the study reveals that under the twenty-one representative drought scenarios, the loss of load expectation (LOLE) of the grid could range from 34.77 to 91.48 days per summer. The simulations indicate that implementing resilience enhancement strategies is crucial to ensure reliable system operation, which encompasses initiatives such as demand response, upgrading open cooling systems, and transmission expansion. In all, these findings underscore the urgent need for proactive planning and investment in resilient U.S. power systems to mitigate the impacts of extreme drought events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

MESSENGER Observations of Extreme Magnetic Tail Loading and Unloading During its Third Flyby of Mercury: Substorms?

During MESSENGER's third flyby of Mercury on September 29, 2009, a variable interplanetary magnetic field produced a series of several minute enhancements of the tail magnetic field hy factors of approx. 2 to 3.5. The magnetic field flaring during these intervals indicates that they result from loading of the tail with magnetic flux transferred from the dayside magnetosphere. The unloading intervals were associated with plasmoids and traveling compression regions, signatures of tail reconnection. The peak tail magnetic flux during the smallest loading events equaled 30% of the magnetic flux emanating from Mercury, and may have reached 100% for the largest event. In this case the dayside magnetic shielding is reduced and solar wind flux impacting the surface may be greatly enhanced. Despite the intensity of these events and their similarity to terrestrial substorm magnetic flux dynamics, no energetic charged particles with energies greater than 36 keV were observed.

Slavin, James A.↗

2M17091769+3127589: A Mass-transfer Binary with an Extreme Mass Ratio

We present the orbital solution of a peculiar double-lined spectroscopic and eclipsing binary system, 2M17091769+3127589. This solution was obtained by a simultaneous fit of both APOGEE radial velocities and TESS and ASAS-SN light curves to determine masses and radii. This system consists of an M=0.256{sub -0.006}{sup +0.010} M {sub ⊙}, R=3.961{sub -0.032}{sup +0.049} R {sub ⊙} red giant and a hotter M=1.518{sub -0.031}{sup +0.057} M {sub ⊙}, R=2.608{sub -0.321}{sup +0.034} R {sub ⊙} subgiant. Modeling with the MESA evolutionary codes indicates that the system likely formed 5.26 Gyrs ago, with a M = 1.2 M {sub ⊙} primary that is now the system’s red giant and a M = 1.11 M {sub ⊙} secondary that is now a more massive subgiant. Due to Roche-lobe overflow as the primary ascends the red giant branch, the more evolved “primary” (i.e., originally the more massive star of the pair) is now only one sixth as massive as the “secondary.” Such a difference between the initial and the current mass ratio is one of the most extreme detected so far. Evolutionary modeling suggests the system is still engaged in mass transfer, at a rate of M-dot ~10{sup -9} M {sub ⊙}/yr, and it provides an example of a less evolved precursor to some of the systems that consist of white dwarfs and blue stragglers.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Towards critical and supercritical electromagnetic fields

Abstract The availability of ever stronger, laser-generated electromagnetic fields underpins continuing progress in the study and application of nonlinear phenomena in basic physical systems, ranging from molecules and atoms to relativistic plasmas and quantum electrodynamics. This raises the question: how far will we be able to go with future lasers? One exciting prospect is the attainment of field strengths approaching the Schwinger critical field ${E}_{\mathrm{cr}}$ in the laboratory frame, such that the field invariant ${E}^2-{c}^2{B}^2>{E}_{\mathrm{cr}}^2$ is reached. The feasibility of doing so has been questioned, on the basis that cascade generation of dense electron–positron plasma would inevitably lead to absorption or screening of the incident light. Here we discuss the potential for future lasers to overcome such obstacles, by combining the concept of multiple colliding laser pulses with that of frequency upshifting via a tailored laser–plasma interaction. This compresses the electromagnetic field energy into a region of nanometre size and attosecond duration, which increases the field magnitude at fixed power but also suppresses pair cascades. Our results indicate that laser facilities with peak power of tens of PW could be capable of reaching ${E}_{\mathrm{cr}}$ . Such a scenario opens up prospects for the experimental investigation of phenomena previously considered to occur only in the most extreme environments in the universe.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Spatiotemporal Variability of Electric System Reliability Metrics

As urbanization continues to grow, urban density also rises, placing significant stress on critical infrastructure. Cities often face challenges in investing in new infrastructure or upgrading existing ones. One area of infrastructure that has come under strain is the electric grid, leading to prolonged power outages. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the average duration of power outages has steadily doubled from 2013 to 2021, primarily due to extreme weather events. The IEEE has developed a series of reliability metrics to assess the reliability of the electric system. However, these metrics are only applied at the utility level, making it challenging to comprehend the variations in these indices at finer spatial resolutions and, consequently, evaluate reliability at the non-utility level. In this study, we leveraged electric outage data collected at 15-minute intervals at the county level to estimate electric system reliability over a six-year period using a novel data analysis approach. Our findings reveal a gradual decline in reliability in the U.S. Southwest compared to national averages. Furthermore, the duration of outages per customer per event has significantly decreased in large portions of California and Florida. These discoveries can be valuable for utility companies as they seek to pinpoint regional anomalies and plan for prioritized remediation efforts.

Singh, Nagendra↗

Packing properties of fine powders and the depth of the lunar dust layer

Previous experimental and theoretical studies by Hapke and Van Horn [1963] and Hapke [1963] of surfaces which reflect light like the moon support the hypothesis that the lunar surface is covered with a layer of fine rock dust. The material in this layer appears to be in an extremely unconsolidated state, having a bulk density of the order of one-eighth that of solid rock. Such photometric studies can give information concerning only the upper few millimeters of the lunar soil. However, analyses of radiofrequency observations indicate that extensive areas of the moon may be covered to depths of the order of a meter or greater by a substance which is also much less dense than solid rock. From the radar reflectivity of the lunar surface at meter wavelengths Evans [1962] infers a dielectric constant of K = 2.7; Troitsky [1962] estimates K = 1.6 on the basis of radio-thermal observations at centimeter wavelengths. Since the RF dielectric constants of stony meteorites and of terrestrial rocks range from about 4 to 45 [Fensler et al., 1962] it is clear that the density of the lunar soil is unusually low at least to depths to which RF radiation can penetrate; Troitsky estimates this depth to be of the order of 20 wavelengths or greater in the 3-cm-wavelength range.

Powder↗

Navigation strategy and filter design for solar electric missions

Methods which have been proposed to improve the navigation accuracy for the low-thrust space vehicle include modifications to the standard Sequential- and Batch-type orbit determination procedures and the use of inertial measuring units (IMU) which measures directly the acceleration applied to the vehicle. The navigation accuracy obtained using one of the more promising modifications to the orbit determination procedures is compared with a combined IMU-Standard. The unknown accelerations are approximated as both first-order and second-order Gauss-Markov processes. The comparison is based on numerical results obtained in a study of the navigation requirements of a numerically simulated 152-day low-thrust mission to the asteroid Eros. The results obtained in the simulation indicate that the DMC algorithm will yield a significant improvement over the navigation accuracies achieved with previous estimation algorithms. In addition, the DMC algorithms will yield better navigation accuracies than the IMU-Standard Orbit Determination algorithm, except for extremely precise IMU measurements, i.e., gyroplatform alignment .01 deg and accelerometer signal-to-noise ratio .07. Unless these accuracies are achieved, the IMU navigation accuracies are generally unacceptable.

Tapley, B. D.↗

Reward and uncertainty in exploration programs

A set of variables which are crucial to the economic outcome of petroleum exploration are discussed. These are treated as random variables; the values they assume indicate the number of successes that occur in a drilling program and determine, for a particular discovery, the unit production cost and net economic return if that reservoir is developed. In specifying the joint probability law for those variables, extreme and probably unrealistic assumptions are made. In particular, the different random variables are assumed to be independently distributed. Using postulated probability functions and specified parameters, values are generated for selected random variables, such as reservoir size. From this set of values the economic magnitudes of interest, net return and unit production cost are computed. This constitutes a single trial, and the procedure is repeated many times. The resulting histograms approximate the probability density functions of the variables which describe the economic outcomes of an exploratory drilling program.

Kaufman, G. M.↗