Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Distributed model predictive control”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,027 records · Page 57

Tectonic-Climate Interactions in Action Orogenic Belts: Quantification of Dynamic Topography with SRTM data

This project was undertaken to examine the approach to steady state in collisional mountain belts. Although the primary thrust of this grant was to look at larger collisional mountain belts, such as the Himalaya, the Tien Shan, and Southern Alps, we began by looking at smaller structures represented by growing and propagating folds. Like ranges that are evolving toward a topographic steady state, these folds undergo a series of morphologic changes as they are progressively uplifted and eroded. We wanted to document the nature of these changes and to try to discern some of the underlying controls on them. We initially focused on the Wheeler Ridge anticline in southern California. Subsequently, we progressed to looking at the topographic development and the effects of differential uplift and glaciation on the Kyrgyz Range in the northern Tien Shan. This range is unusual inasmuch as it is transformed along its length from a simple uplift with a largely preserved Mesozoic erosion surface arching across it to a highly dissected and heavily glaciated uplift in the region where uplift has been sustained at higher rates over longer intervals. In efforts to understand the distribution of erosion rates at 10(exp 3) - 10(exp 5) year time scales, cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) concentrations have been gaining increasingly widespread usage (Brown et al., 1995; Riebe et al., 2004; Riebe et al., 2001; Vance et al., 2003). Most studies to date, however, have been conducted in slowly eroding ranges. In rapidly eroding mountains where landslides deliver most of the sediments to the rivers, we hypothesized that CRN concentrations could be highly perturbed by the stochastic processes of landsliding. Therefore, we undertook the development of a numerical model that simulated the effects of both landsliding and grain-by-grain attrition within fluvial catchments. This modeling effort has shown the effects of catchment size and erosion rate on CRN concentrations and allows a prediction of where to sample to obtain the optimal erosion rate estimates using CRN techniques. Finally, we developed computational techniques to operate on DEMs to extract useful information that would enable quantification of climate-erosion interactions. In particular, we worked on rapid techniques to define catchments of any given range of sizes, to extract channel gradients, to combine precipitation information to calculate discharge, and to utilize various stream-power models to determine the erosional energy within any given catchment within a transect. We briefly describe results from Wheeler Ridge, the Kyrgyz Range, the Nepal Himalaya, and our numerical modeling.

Burbank, Douglas W.↗

Programmable Thermostats for MPLM Shell Heater Control ULF1: Thermal Performances - 1

The Multi-Purpose Logistics Module (MPLM) is the primary carrier for "pressurized" logistics to and from the International Space Station (ISS). The MPLM is transported in the payload bay of the Space Shuttle and is docked to the ISS for unloading, and reloading, of contents within the ISS shirt sleeve environment. Foil heaters, controlled originally with bi-metallic thermostats, are distributed across the outside of the MPLM structure and are utilized to provide energy to the structure to avoid exposure to cold temperatures and prevent condensation. The existing bi-metallic, fixed temperature set point thermostats have been replaced with Programmable Thermostats Modules (PTMs) in the Passive Thermal Control Subsystem (PTCS) 28Vdc shell heater circuits. The goal of using the PTM thermostat is to improve operational efficiency of the MPLM on-orbit shell heaters by providing better shell temperature control via feedback control capability. Each heater circuit contains a programmable thermostat connected to an external temperature sensor, a Resistive Temperature Device (RTD), which is used to provide continuous temperature monitoring capability. Each thermostat has programmable temperature set points and control spans. The data acquisition system uses a standard RS-485 serial interface communications cable to provide digital control capability. The PTM system was designed by MSFC, relying upon ALTEC support for their integration within the MPLM system design, while KSC performed the installation and ground checkout testing of the thermostat and RS-485 communication cable on the MPLM FM1 flight module. The PTMs were used for the first time during the STS-121/ULF1.1 mission. This paper will describe the design, development and verification of the PTM system, as well as the PTM flight performance and comparisons with SINDA thermal model predictions.

Glasgow, Shaun↗

Oil/water/rock wettability: Influencing factors and implications for low salinity water flooding in carbonate reservoirs

Wettability of the oil/brine/rock system is an essential petro-physical parameter which governs subsurface multiphase flow behaviour and the distribution of fluids, thus directly affecting oil recovery. Recent studies [1–3] show that manipulation of injected brine composition can enhance oil recovery by shifting wettability from oil-wet to water-wet. However, what factor(s) control system wettability has not been completely elucidated due to incomplete understanding of the geochemical system. To isolate and identify the key factors at play we used in this paper SO 4 2 —free solutions to examine the effect of salinity (formation brine/FB, 10 times diluted formation brine/10 dFB, and 100 times diluted formation brine/100 dFB) on the contact angle of oil droplets at the surface of calcite. We then compared contact angle results with predictions of surface complexation by low salinity water using PHREEQC software. We demonstrate that the conventional dilution approach likely triggers an oil-wet system at low pH, which may explain why the low salinity water EOR-effect is not always observed by injecting low salinity water in carbonated reservoirs. pH plays a fundamental role in the surface chemistry of oil/brine interfaces, and wettability. Our contact angle results show that formation brine triggered a strong water-wet system (35°) at pH 2.55, yet 100 times diluted formation brine led to a strongly oil-wet system (contact angle = 175°) at pH 5.68. Surface complexation modelling correctly predicted the wettability trend with salinity; the bond product sum ([>CaOH 2 + ][–COO - ] + [>CO 3 - ][–NH + ] + [>CO 3 - ][–COOCa + ]) increased with decreasing salinity. Finally, at pH < 6 dilution likely makes the calcite surface oil-wet, particularly for crude oils with high base number. Yet, dilution probably causes water wetness at pH > 7 for crude oils with high acid number.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Spatial Mapping of Riverbed Grain-Size Distribution Using Machine Learning

Recent alluvial sediments in riverbeds play a significant role in controlling hydrologic exchange flows (HEFs) in river systems. The alluvial layer is usually associated with strong heterogeneity in physical properties (e.g., permeability and hydraulic conductivity), which affects local HEFs and therefore biogeochemical processes. The spatial distribution of these physical properties needs to be determined to inform the numerical models used to reveal the realistic hydro-biogeochemical behaviors. Such information can be obtained based on the intrinsic link between sediment grain-size distribution and hydraulic properties where sediment texture information is available. However, grain-size measurements are usually spatially sparse and do not have adequate coverage and resolution, particularly for a relatively large domain such as the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River. In this paper, we adopted machine learning (ML) approaches for categorizing and mapping the spatial distributions of riverbed substrate grain size and filling in missing areas of substrate data using the ML models along the reach. Such ML models for substrate size mapping were trained at 13,372 locations using measured substrate sizes along with observed and simulated attributes, including bathymetric attributes (e.g., elevation, slope, and aspect ratio) from LIDAR and bathymetric surveys, and hydrodynamic properties (e.g., water depth, velocity, shear stress, and their statistical moments). An ensemble bagging-based ML technique, Random Forest, was adopted to identify the most influential factors as predictors to develop the predictive models with over-fitting issues addressed. The models were evaluated with respect to each individual substrate size class and the lumped group, and then used to generate the final substrate size maps covering all the grid cells in the numerical modeling domain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ARC algorithm: A novel approach to forecast and manage daily electrical maximum demand

This paper proposes an innovative algorithm for predicting short-term electrical maximum demand by using historical demand data. The ability to recognize in peak demand pattern for commercial or industrial customers would propose numerous direct and indirect benefits to the customers and utility providers in terms of demand reduction, cost control, and system stability. Prior works in electrical maximum demand forecasting have been mainly focused on seasonal effects, which is not a feasible approach for industrial manufacturing facilities in short-term load forecasting. The proposed algorithm, denoted as the Adaptive Rate of Change (ARC), determines the logarithmic rate-of-change in load profile prior to a peak by postulating the demand curve as a stochastic, mean-reverting process. The rationale behind this analysis, is that the energy efficient program requires not only demand estimation but also to warn the user of imminent maximum peak occurrence. This paper analyzes demand trend data and incorporates stochastic model and mean reverting half-life to develop an electrical maximum demand forecasting algorithm, which is statistically evaluated by cross-table and F-score for three different manufacturing facilities. Lastly, the aggregate results show an overall accuracy of 0.91 and a F-score of 0.43, which indicates that the algorithm is effective predicting peak demand in predicting peak demand.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Comparison of Orbital Parameters for GEO Debris Predicted by LEGEND and Observed by MODEST: Can Sources of Orbital Debris be Identified?

Since 2002 the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has carried out an optical survey of the debris environment in the geosynchronous Earth-orbit (GEO) region with the Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST) in Chile. The survey coverage has been similar for 4 of the 5 years allowing us to follow the orbital evolution of Correlated Targets (CTs), both controlled and un-controlled objects, and Un-Correlated Targets (UCTs). Under gravitational perturbations the distributions of uncontrolled objects, both CTs and UCTs, in GEO orbits will evolve in predictable patterns, particularly evident in the inclination and right ascension of the ascending node (RAAN) distributions. There are several clusters (others have used a "cloud" nomenclature) in observed distributions that show evolution from year to year in their inclination and ascending node elements. However, when MODEST is in survey mode (field-of-view approx.1.3deg) it provides only short 5-8 minute orbital arcs which can only be fit under the assumption of a circular orbit approximation (ACO) to determine the orbital parameters. These ACO elements are useful only in a statistical sense as dedicated observing runs would be required to obtain sufficient orbital coverage to determine a set of accurate orbital elements and then to follow their evolution. Identification of the source(s) for these "clusters of UCTs" would be advantageous to the overall definition of the GEO orbital debris environment. This paper will set out to determine if the ACO elements can be used to in a statistical sense to identify the source of the "clustering of UCTs" roughly centered on an inclination of 12deg and a RAAN of 345deg. The breakup of the Titan 3C-4 transtage on February 21, 1992 has been modeled using NASA s LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris) code to generate a GEO debris cloud. Breakup fragments are created based on the NASA Standard Breakup Model (including fragment size, area-to-mass (A/M), and delta-V distributions). Once fragments are created, they are propagated forward in time with a subroutine GEOPROP. Perturbations included in GEOPROP are those due to solar/lunar gravity, radiation pressure, and major geopotential terms. The question to be addressed: are the UCTs detected by MODEST in this inclination/RAAN region related to the Titan 3C-4 breakup? Discussion will include the observational biases in attempting to detect a specific, uncontrolled target during given observing session. These restrictions include: (1) the length of the observing session which is 8 hours or less at any given date or declination; (2) the assumption of ACO elements for detected object when the breakup model predicts debris with non-zero eccentricities; (3) the size and illumination or brightness of the debris predicted by the model and the telescope/sky limiting magnitude.

Barker, Edwin S.↗

Network-Capable Application Process and Wireless Intelligent Sensors for ISHM

Intelligent sensor technology and systems are increasingly becoming attractive means to serve as frameworks for intelligent rocket test facilities with embedded intelligent sensor elements, distributed data acquisition elements, and onboard data acquisition elements. Networked intelligent processors enable users and systems integrators to automatically configure their measurement automation systems for analog sensors. NASA and leading sensor vendors are working together to apply the IEEE 1451 standard for adding plug-and-play capabilities for wireless analog transducers through the use of a Transducer Electronic Data Sheet (TEDS) in order to simplify sensor setup, use, and maintenance, to automatically obtain calibration data, and to eliminate manual data entry and error. A TEDS contains the critical information needed by an instrument or measurement system to identify, characterize, interface, and properly use the signal from an analog sensor. A TEDS is deployed for a sensor in one of two ways. First, the TEDS can reside in embedded, nonvolatile memory (typically flash memory) within the intelligent processor. Second, a virtual TEDS can exist as a separate file, downloadable from the Internet. This concept of virtual TEDS extends the benefits of the standardized TEDS to legacy sensors and applications where the embedded memory is not available. An HTML-based user interface provides a visual tool to interface with those distributed sensors that a TEDS is associated with, to automate the sensor management process. Implementing and deploying the IEEE 1451.1-based Network-Capable Application Process (NCAP) can achieve support for intelligent process in Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) for the purpose of monitoring, detection of anomalies, diagnosis of causes of anomalies, prediction of future anomalies, mitigation to maintain operability, and integrated awareness of system health by the operator. It can also support local data collection and storage. This invention enables wide-area sensing and employs numerous globally distributed sensing devices that observe the physical world through the existing sensor network. This innovation enables distributed storage, distributed processing, distributed intelligence, and the availability of DiaK (Data, Information, and Knowledge) to any element as needed. It also enables the simultaneous execution of multiple processes, and represents models that contribute to the determination of the condition and health of each element in the system. The NCAP (intelligent process) can configure data-collection and filtering processes in reaction to sensed data, allowing it to decide when and how to adapt collection and processing with regard to sophisticated analysis of data derived from multiple sensors. The user will be able to view the sensing device network as a single unit that supports a high-level query language. Each query would be able to operate over data collected from across the global sensor network just as a search query encompasses millions of Web pages. The sensor web can preserve ubiquitous information access between the querier and the queried data. Pervasive monitoring of the physical world raises significant data and privacy concerns. This innovation enables different authorities to control portions of the sensing infrastructure, and sensor service authors may wish to compose services across authority boundaries.

Figueroa, Fernando↗

Flexible AI Models for Grid Resilience

The rapid growth in size and complexity of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) models has led to increased energy demands, posing a threat to the reliability of the existing power grid. This project addresses the challenge of highly intermittent and energy-intensive inference workloads by (1) developing fidelity-adaptive neural networks capable of dynamic response to grid conditions and (2) integrating these networks with power flow simulations to assess their impact on power grid reliability. We will explore both top-down and bottom-up approaches to create hierarchies of submodels that provide a controlled trade-off between power draw and prediction accuracy. The top-down method utilizes NN pruning to reduce a flagship model into progressively smaller, energy-efficient variants. The bottom-up approach employs geometrically principled weight setting strategies to construct depth-efficient models from the ground up. A real-time hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) platform will be developed to simulate a scaled AC power grid, integrating live AI workload power draw and enabling dynamic model switching in response to grid feedback. This work will provide a novel framework for evaluating the impact of flexible AI/ML workloads on grid performance and establish new methodologies for energy-aware computing in data centers. The outcomes will demonstrate that adaptive AI/ML can play a critical role in improving grid stability while advancing NREL's leadership in energy-efficient computing research.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Predictions of time to HIV viral rebound following ART suspension that incorporate personal biomarkers

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) effectively controls HIV infection, suppressing HIV viral loads. Suspension of therapy is followed by rebound of viral loads to high, pre-therapy levels. However, there is significant heterogeneity in speed of rebound, with some rebounds occurring within days, weeks, or sometimes years. We present a stochastic mathematical model to gain insight into these post-treatment dynamics, specifically characterizing the dynamics of short term viral rebounds (≤ 60 days). Li et al. (2016) report that the size of the expressed HIV reservoir, i.e., cell-associated HIV RNA levels, and drug regimen correlate with the time between ART suspension and viral rebound to detectable levels. We incorporate this information and viral rebound times to parametrize our model. We then investigate insights offered by our model into the underlying dynamics of the latent reservoir. In particular, we refine previous estimates of viral recrudescence after ART interruption by accounting for heterogeneity in infection rebound dynamics, and determine a recrudescence rate of once every 2-4 days. Our parametrized model can be used to aid in design of clinical trials to study viral dynamics following analytic treatment interruption. We show how to derive informative personalized testing frequencies from our model and offer a proof-of-concept example. Our results represent first steps towards a model that can make predictions on a person living with HIV (PLWH)’s rebound time distribution based on biomarkers, and help identify PLWH with long viral rebound delays.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

On the variability of the Bering Sea Cold Pool and implications for the biophysical environment

The Bering Sea experiences a seasonal sea ice cover, which is important to the biophysical environment found there. A pool of cold bottom water (<2°C) is formed on the shelf each winter as a result of cooling and vertical mixing due to brine rejection during the predominately local sea ice growth. The extent and distribution of this Cold Pool (CP) is largely controlled by the winter extent of sea ice in the Bering Sea, which can vary considerably and recently has been much lower than average. The cold bottom water of the CP is important for food security because it delineates the boundary between arctic and subarctic demersal fish species. A northward retreat of the CP will likely be associated with migration of subarctic species toward the Chukchi Sea. We use the fully-coupled Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to examine variability of the extent and distribution of the CP and its relation to change in the sea ice cover in the Bering Sea during the period 1980–2018. RASM results confirm the direct correlation between the extent of sea ice and the CP and show a smaller CP as a consequence of realistically simulated recent declines of the sea ice cover in the Bering Sea. In fact, the area of the CP was found to be only 31% of the long-term mean in July of 2018. In addition, we also find that a low ice year is followed by a later diatom bloom, while a heavy ice year is followed by an early diatom bloom. Finally, the RASM probabilistic intra-annual forecast capability is reviewed, based on 31-member ensembles for 2019–2021, for its potential use for prediction of the winter sea ice cover and the subsequent summer CP area in the Bering Sea.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AVESTAR Center for Operational Excellence of Electricity Generation Plants

To address industry challenges in attaining operational excellence for electricity generation plants, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) has launched a world-class facility for Advanced Virtual Energy Simulation Training and Research (AVESTARTM). This presentation will highlight the AVESTARTM Center simulators, facilities, and comprehensive training, education, and research programs focused on the operation and control of high-efficiency, near-zero-emission electricity generation plants. The AVESTAR Center brings together state-of-the-art, real-time, high-fidelity dynamic simulators with full-scope operator training systems (OTSs) and 3D virtual immersive training systems (ITSs) into an integrated energy plant and control room environment. AVESTAR’s initial offering combines--for the first time--a “gasification with CO2 capture” process simulator with a “combined-cycle” power simulator together in a single OTS/ITS solution for an integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) power plant with carbon dioxide (CO2) capture. IGCC systems are an attractive technology option for power generation, especially when capturing and storing CO2 is necessary to satisfy emission targets. The AVESTAR training program offers a variety of courses that merge classroom learning, simulator-based OTS learning in a control-room operations environment, and immersive learning in the interactive 3D virtual plant environment or ITS. All of the courses introduce trainees to base-load plant operation, control, startups, and shutdowns. Advanced courses require participants to become familiar with coordinated control, fuel switching, power-demand load shedding, and load following, as well as to problem solve equipment and process malfunctions. Designed to ensure work force development, training is offered for control room and plant field operators, as well as engineers and managers. Such comprehensive simulator-based instruction allows for realistic training without compromising worker, equipment, and environmental safety. It also better prepares operators and engineers to manage the plant closer to economic constraints while minimizing or avoiding the impact of any potentially harmful, wasteful, or inefficient events. The AVESTAR Center is also used to augment graduate and undergraduate engineering education in the areas of process simulation, dynamics, control, and safety. Students and researchers gain hands-on simulator-based training experience and learn how the commercial-scale power plants respond dynamically to changes in manipulated inputs, such as coal feed flow rate and power demand. Students also analyze how the regulatory control system impacts power plant performance and stability. In addition, students practice start-up, shutdown, and malfunction scenarios. The 3D virtual ITSs are used for plant familiarization, walk-through, equipment animations, and safety scenarios. To further leverage the AVESTAR facilities and simulators, NETL and its university partners are pursuing an innovative and collaborative R&D program. In the area of process control, AVESTAR researchers are developing enhanced strategies for regulatory control and coordinated plant-wide control, including gasifier and gas turbine lead, as well as advanced process control using model predictive control (MPC) techniques. Other AVESTAR R&D focus areas include high-fidelity equipment modeling using partial differential equations, dynamic reduced order modeling, optimal sensor placement, 3D virtual plant simulation, and modern grid. NETL and its partners plan to continue building the AVESTAR portfolio of dynamic simulators, immersive training systems, and advanced research capabilities to satisfy industry’s growing need for training and experience with the operation and control of clean energy plants. Future dynamic simulators under development include natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) and supercritical pulverized coal (SCPC) plants with post-combustion CO2 capture. These dynamic simulators are targeted for use in establishing a Virtual Carbon Capture Center (VCCC), similar in concept to the DOE’s National Carbon Capture Center for slipstream testing. The VCCC will enable developers of CO2 capture technologies to integrate, test, and optimize the operation of their dynamic capture models within the context of baseline power plant dynamic models. The objective is to provide hands-on, simulator-based “learn-by-operating” test platforms to accelerate the scale-up and deployment of CO2 capture technologies. Future AVESTAR plans also include pursuing R&D on the dynamics, operation, and control of integrated electricity generation and storage systems for the modern grid era. Special emphasis will be given to combining load-following energy plants with renewable and distributed generating supplies and fast-ramping energy storage systems to provide near constant baseload power.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Collab Fracture Characterization: Preliminary Results from the Modeling and Flow Testing of Experiment 1

The EGS Collab project is developing ~10-20 m-scale field sites where fracture stimulation and flow models can be validated against controlled, small-scale, in-situ experiments. At the first experimental site, a hydraulic fracture will be created in metamorphic rock at the 4850 level in the former Homestake Mine. The experimental concept is for fracturing to be initiated at an injection well and continue until it intersects a production well approximately 10 meters away. Initial step-pressure flow testing of the fracture are to be performed to describe pressure-aperture-flow relationships. The flow field between the injector and producer boreholes will be characterized using a series of forced gradient dipole tracer tests. A number of fracture characterization models have been used to assist in the design of the tracer tests. The tracer test program will use conservative, sorbing, and particulate tracers, as well as sampling for radon gas to describe the fracture surface area (i.e., potential heat transfer area), flow pathway distribution, and volume. Tracer concentration at the production well (i.e. break through curves) will be measured using a series of inline sensors, liquid sampling devices, filtering of the effluent, and the measuring of gas concentrations in the effluent. Tracer monitoring data will be compared against results from a collection of numerical simulators developed at U.S. national laboratories and universities for the purpose of validating these flow and transport models. Ultimately these same models will be used to predict the heat transfer characteristics of the fracture and will be compared to a thermal characterization field test where cold water will be injected at the injection well and the temperature will be measured at the production well. This paper discusses the early tracer transport model predictions and parameters sensitivity that affect the tracer breakthrough curves at the production well.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Collab Fracture Characterization: Preliminary Results from the Modeling and Flow Testing of Experiment 1

The EGS Collab project is developing ~10-20 m-scale field sites where fracture stimulation and flow models can be validated against controlled, small-scale, in-situ experiments. At the first experimental site, a hydraulic fracture will be created in metamorphic rock at the 4850 level in the former Homestake Mine. The experimental concept is for fracturing to be initiated at an injection well and continue until it intersects a production well approximately 10 meters away. Initial step-pressure flow testing of the fracture are to be performed to describe pressure-aperture-flow relationships. The flow field between the injector and producer boreholes will be characterized using a series of forced gradient dipole tracer tests. A number of fracture characterization models have been used to assist in the design of the tracer tests. The tracer test program will use conservative, sorbing, and particulate tracers, as well as sampling for radon gas to describe the fracture surface area (i.e., potential heat transfer area), flow pathway distribution, and volume. Tracer concentration at the production well (i.e. break through curves) will be measured using a series of inline sensors, liquid sampling devices, filtering of the effluent, and the measuring of gas concentrations in the effluent. Tracer monitoring data will be compared against results from a collection of numerical simulators developed at U.S. national laboratories and universities for the purpose of validating these flow and transport models. Ultimately these same models will be used to predict the heat transfer characteristics of the fracture and will be compared to a thermal characterization field test where cold water will be injected at the injection well and the temperature will be measured at the production well. This paper discusses the early tracer transport model predictions and parameters sensitivity that affect the tracer breakthrough curves at the production well.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Collab Fracture Characterization: Preliminary Results from the Modeling and Flow Testing of Experiment 1

The EGS Collab project is developing ~10-20 m-scale field sites where fracture stimulation and flow models can be validated against controlled, small-scale, in-situ experiments. At the first experimental site, a hydraulic fracture will be created in metamorphic rock at the 4850 level in the former Homestake Mine. The experimental concept is for fracturing to be initiated at an injection well and continue until it intersects a production well approximately 10 meters away. Initial step-pressure flow testing of the fracture are to be performed to describe pressure-aperture-flow relationships. The flow field between the injector and producer boreholes will be characterized using a series of forced gradient dipole tracer tests. A number of fracture characterization models have been used to assist in the design of the tracer tests. The tracer test program will use conservative, sorbing, and particulate tracers, as well as sampling for radon gas to describe the fracture surface area (i.e., potential heat transfer area), flow pathway distribution, and volume. Tracer concentration at the production well (i.e. break through curves) will be measured using a series of inline sensors, liquid sampling devices, filtering of the effluent, and the measuring of gas concentrations in the effluent. Tracer monitoring data will be compared against results from a collection of numerical simulators developed at U.S. national laboratories and universities for the purpose of validating these flow and transport models. Ultimately these same models will be used to predict the heat transfer characteristics of the fracture and will be compared to a thermal characterization field test where cold water will be injected at the injection well and the temperature will be measured at the production well. This paper discusses the early tracer transport model predictions and parameters sensitivity that affect the tracer breakthrough curves at the production well.

Enhanced Geothermal Systems, EGS Collab, Sanford U↗

Bayesian Approach to Estimation of Water Table Elevations Using Historical Rasters as Prior Information 2019 - 20430

In cases of complex but only partially known geology and a lack of spatial control in observation well locations, water table elevation estimation is very challenging. In some cases, auxiliary information, such as observations of the movement of tracers, operation of injection and extraction wells, and calibration of groundwater models against the historical elevation data, can be combined with expert judgement to estimate flow directions in areas of sparse data and to aid in the production of more reliable contour maps (and associated rasters) than could be produced by relying on sparse well elevation data alone. Given a historical sequence of these raster maps, the question arises how to automate, to the extent possible, the process of producing new raster maps to reflect data from previous times, the current data and the operation of expert judgement. One solution is to adopt a Bayesian point of view and to regard the historical well elevation data, auxiliary information and historical raster maps as prior information. The well elevations for water table wells, as well as those for injection/extraction wells and the data associated with other relevant variables, can be viewed as predictors for the raster surface. From this prior information, we can, conditional on the values of these predictors for a new time period, compute an expected value map and a standard deviation map for the new raster. These then can be taken to specify a prior predictive distribution for the pixels in the new raster map. Then we condition the pixels, corresponding to water level observation wells within the raster, on the observed values in those wells (which in general will differ from the regression estimate) for the new time period. Given the smoothness of the water table surface, we then smooth the surface of deviations from the mean surface, based on the variograms of the historical rasters, and add this smoothed surface to the regression mean surface. The error structure of the produced raster map is defined by the regression error structure and the error due to smoothing based on the estimated variograms. This methodology has been developed and is being further refined for groundwater monitoring and remediation at LANL. It is a very flexible method that can also be applied with a variety of other predictors applied to model the water level wells in the area of interest over the historical record. The smoothness of the spatial process and its possible evolution over time can then be estimated from the residuals from this regression. This can be augmented by expert hydrogeological opinion based on site topography and hydrogeology. (authors)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Controlling the distribution of microbially induced calcite precipitation in the subsurface

Microbially induced calcite precipitation (MICP) has gained interest as an environmentally friendly method for a number of subsurface applications, including consolidation of granular materials, modification of permeability, metal and radionuclide immobilization, self-healing of concrete, etc. MICP relies on microorganisms that when provided with appropriate nutrients create chemical conditions conducive to calcite precipitation. A major challenge is controlling and predicting spatial distribution of precipitates, whether the target be uniform or nonuniform (e.g., in specific strata or locations) deposition. The spatial distribution depends on calcite precipitation kinetics, the kinetics of the biological and chemical reactions that generate the required Ca2+ and carbonate, locations and phase association of the microbial catalyst, and timing of the arrival of amendments introduced into the medium; the latter depends on hydraulic boundary conditions and medium properties (porosity, permeability). We present results from a field experiment where we sought to induce uniform precipitation relying only on indigenous microorganisms and calcium within an approximately 3 meter thick saturated zone between two wells located 4 meters apart. We employed a continuous recirculation design; water extracted from the downgradient well was amended with urea and molasses and re-injected into the upgradient well for 12 days and the aqueous chemistry and microbiology was monitored for 419 days. Measurements of substrates and products, and isotopic data for DIC all indicated desired reactions were stimulated within the zone and downstream, during active recirculation and afterward. The results could be reasonably simulated by postulating that the recirculation resulted in homogeneous aqueous geochemistry within the entire zone, that a metabolic lag time persisted during the recirculation period, and that native ureolytic microorganisms were all attached.While alternative scenarios cannot be ruled out, the data and model support that spatial distribution of urolytic calcite precipitation can be manipulated by engineering design, although still constrained by site hydrogeology.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Mechanisms for Methane Transport and Hydrate Accumulation in Coarse-Grained Reservoirs

The distribution of natural methane hydrate within high saturation reservoirs and mechanisms that control the migration of methane are an active area of research. In this project, we studied methane migration mechanisms and associated hydrate accumulation rates in coarse-grained sands of the Terrebonne Basin, located in Walker Ridge Block 313 (WR313), northern Gulf of Mexico. Hydrate in this area is distributed heterogeneously within ~900 m of methane hydrate stability zone, in both thick (10-25 m) and thin (< 3 m) sand layers, and in units of subvertical hydrate-filled fractures. We investigated hydrate formation from diffusively and advectively supplied methane using one-, two-, and three-dimensional basin modeling with inputs from well log and seismic data. The hydrate accumulations at WR313 can mostly be explained by short, diffusive migration of methane as well as short-range advective transport of methane from clays into neighboring coarser-grained layers. This is likely enhanced by small-scale lithologic variations, including local microbial methanogenesis in interbedded clays. Furthermore, our work shows overpressure in clay sediments surrounding sand reservoirs may enhance short-range diffusive migration. Long-range migration of dissolved methane and gas mainly influence hydrate saturation right at the base of the hydrate stability zone, although the dissolved phase can be channeled upwards along sands by compaction-driven flow. Capillary effects can allow gas bubbles to migrate appreciable distances above the predicted base of gas hydrate stability, possibly reaching a few tens of meters into the hydrate stability zone. Recycling methane from hydrate buried beneath the base of the hydrate stability zone can concentrate hydrate at large saturations within a few tens of meters of the base of hydrate stability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Modeling of Macroscopic/Microscopic Transport and Growth Phenomena in Zeolite Crystal Solutions Under Microgravity Conditions

Crystals grown from liquid solutions have important industrial applications. Zeolites, for instance, a class of crystalline aluminosilicate materials, form the backbone of the chemical process industry worldwide, as they are used as adsorbents and catalysts. Many of the phenomena associated with crystal growth processes are not well understood due to complex microscopic and macroscopic interactions. Microgravity could help elucidate these phenomena and allow the control of defect locations, concentration, as well as size of crystals. Microgravity in an orbiting spacecraft could help isolate the possible effects of natural convection (which affects defect formation) and minimize sedimentation. In addition, crystals will stay essentially suspended in the nutrient pool under a diffusion-limited growth condition. This is expected to promote larger crystals by allowing a longer residence time in a high-concentration nutrient field. Among other factors, the crystal size distribution depends on the nucleation rate and crystallization. These two are also related to the "gel" polymerization/depolymerization rate. Macroscopic bulk mass and flow transport and especially gravity, force the crystals down to the bottom of the reactor, thus forming a sedimentation layer. In this layer, the growth rate of the crystals slows down as crystals compete for a limited amount of nutrients. The macroscopic transport phenomena under certain conditions can, however, enhance the nutrient supply and therefore, accelerate crystal growth. Several zeolite experiments have been performed in space with mixed results. The results from our laboratory have indicated an enhancement in size of 30 to 70 percent compared to the best ground based controls, and a reduction of lattice defects in many of the space grown crystals. Such experiments are difficult to interpret, and cannot be easily used to derive empirical or other laws since many physical parameters are simultaneously involved in the process. At the same time, however, there is increased urgency to develop such an understanding in order to more accurately quantify the process. In order to better understand the results obtained from our prior space experiments, and design future experiments, a detailed fluid dynamic model simulating the crystal growth mechanism is required. This will not only add to the fundamental knowledge on the crystallization of zeolites, but also be useful in predicting the limits of size and growth of these important industrial materials. Our objective is to develop macro/microscopic theoretical and computational models to study the effect of transport phenomena in the growth of crystals grown in solutions. Our effort has concentrated so far in the development of separate macroscopic and microscopic models. The major highlights of our accomplishments are described.

Gatsonis, Nikos A.↗