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Combining Generative Modeling and Advanced Control for Building Scenario Generation

Buildings make up a large portion of energy consumption in the U.S. today. Understanding their energy consumption patterns can improve their efficiency, but requires detailed models that rely on incomplete or unknown information. Previous work has shown that artificial intelligence (AI) can be used to predict missing information and even suggest upgrades to improve building efficiency. However, building upgrades may require undesirable upfront costs. Oppositely, advanced control could improve building efficiency with negligible upfront cost. To explore the tradeoffs between these two approaches, in this work we propose a workflow to compute optimal temperature setpoint schedules to minimize energy consumption and operational cost. Results show that modifying the temperature setpoints in a building using model predictive control (MPC) can effectively reduce its energy consumption and operational cost. This optimal operation cannot fully meet a desired goal. However, we show that by considering MPC in addition to component upgrades, a desired goal can be met with significantly less upfront costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The Transactive Network Template Metamodel

While transactive energy—an allocation of electricity based on dynamically discovered values or prices—has been extensively studied, its uptake and use has been slow. This report describes a tool, the transactive network template, which should hasten the creation and uptake of transactive energy networks. The transactive network template is a metamodel meant to guide implementers as they configure their own transactive agent within a network of such agents. The transactive network template’s object–oriented design approach provides implementers basic code object types, which may be used and extended to represent each of the assets in the implementer’s circuit region. These objects further facilitate the transactive agent’s necessary computations, which are divided among responsibilities to schedule assets’ power usage, to balance electric supply and demand, and to coordinate the exchange of electricity with the other transactive agents. This report addresses the conceptual transactive network template design. Implementers are directed to more formal design documents and reference implementations. A Python™-based [Python 2018] reference implementation of the transactive network template has been coded, and three implementations have been configured to represent a national laboratory and two university campuses. In the future, the author wishes to make the transactive network template more generally applicable to networks that require more accurate power flow and those employing alternative transactive coordination mechanisms.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Reaching new peaks for the future of the CMS HTCondor Global Pool

The CMS experiment at CERN employs a distributed computing infrastructure to satisfy its data processing and simulation needs. The CMS Submission Infrastructure team manages a dynamic HTCondor pool, aggregating mainly Grid clusters worldwide, but also HPC, Cloud and opportunistic resources. This CMS Global Pool, which currently involves over 70 computing sites worldwide and peaks at 350k CPU cores, is employed to successfully manage the simultaneous execution of up to 150k tasks. While the present infrastructure is sufficient to harness the current computing power scales, CMS latest estimates predict a noticeable expansion in the amount of CPU that will be required in order to cope with the massive data increase of the High-Luminosity LHC (HL-LHC) era, planned to start in 2027. This contribution presents the latest results of the CMS Submission Infrastructure team in exploring and expanding the scalability reach of our Global Pool, in order to preventively detect and overcome any barriers in relation to the HL-LHC goals, while maintaining high effciency in our workload scheduling and resource utilization.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Stochastic decision analysis

Small space flight project design at NASA Langley Research Center goes through a multi-phase process from preliminary analysis to flight operations. The process insures that each system achieves its technical objectives with demonstrated quality and within planned budgets and schedules. A key technical component of early phases is decision analysis, which is a structure procedure for determining the best of a number of feasible concepts based upon project objectives. Feasible system concepts are generated by the designers and analyzed for schedule, cost, risk, and technical measures. Each performance measure value is normalized between the best and worst values and a weighted average score of all measures is calculated for each concept. The concept(s) with the highest scores are retained, while others are eliminated from further analysis. This project automated and enhanced the decision analysis process. Automation of the decision analysis process was done by creating a user-friendly, menu-driven, spreadsheet macro based decision analysis software program. The program contains data entry dialog boxes, automated data and output report generation, and automated output chart generation. The enhancements to the decision analysis process permit stochastic data entry and analysis. Rather than enter single measure values, the designers enter the range and most likely value for each measure and concept. The data can be entered at the system or subsystem level. System level data can be calculated as either sum, maximum, or product functions of the subsystem data. For each concept, the probability distributions are approximated for each measure and the total score for each concept as either constant, triangular, normal, or log-normal distributions. Based on these distributions, formulas are derived for the probability that the concept meets any given constraint, the probability that the concept meets all constraints, and the probability that the concept is within a given amount of the best score. Formulas are also derived for the probability that one concept's total score is within a given amount of a second concept's total score. These probabilistic calculations provide more realistic data entry and output information for designers, enabling designers to better determine which concepts to eliminate and which concepts to retain at the decision points of each design phase.

Lacksonen, Thomas A.↗

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗

ADP-Based Home Energy Management System: A Case Study Using Dynamo: Preprint

This paper explores Home Energy Management System (HEMS) algorithms to minimize household cost while maintaining comfort when faced with uncertain weather, and demand. Specifically, we consider a HEMS that optimizes forward looking schedules for a home's heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC); water heater (WH); and electric vehicle (EV) charging while considering uncertainty in outside temperature, hot water usage, and non-controllable load (NCL). We adopt a Dynamic Programming (DP) formulation and utilize the Dynamic programming for Adaptive Modeling and Optimization (DYNAMO) toolkit to implement DP and approximate dynamic programming (ADP) algorithms. Simulation results under a single tariff plan compare the quality of the solution generated by ADP to that of DP, and show significant improvement in computation time while maintaining acceptable solution accuracy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Hydrogen wide area monitoring of LH2 releases

The characterization of liquid hydrogen (LH2) releases has been identified as an international research priority to expand the safe use of hydrogen as an energy carrier. The elucidation of LH2 release behavior will require the development of dispersion and other models, guided and validated by empirical field measurements such as those afforded by Hydrogen Wide Area Monitoring (HyWAM). HyWAM can be defined as the quantitative spatial and temporal three-dimensional monitoring of planned or unintentional hydrogen releases. With support provided through the FCH JU Prenormative Research for the Safe Use of Liquid Hydrogen (PRESLHY) program, HSE performed a series of LH2 releases to characterize the dispersion and pooling behavior of cold hydrogen releases. The NREL Sensor Laboratory developed a HyWAM system based upon a distributed array of point sensors that is amenable for profiling cold hydrogen plumes. The NREL Sensor Laboratory and HSE formally committed to collaborate on profiling the LH2 releases. This collaboration included the integration of the NREL HyWAM into the HSE LH2 release hardware. This was achieved through a deployment plan jointly developed by the NREL and HSE personnel. Under this plan, the NREL Sensor Laboratory provided multiple HyWAM modules that accommodated 32 sampling points for near-field hydrogen profiling during the HSE PRESLHY LH2 releases. The NREL HyWAM would be utilized throughout the LH2 release study performed under PRESLHY by HSE, including Work Package 3 (WP3—Release and Mixing--Rainout) and subsequent work packages (WP4—Ignition and WP5—Combustion). Under the auspices of the PRESLHY WP6 (Implementation), data and findings from the HSE LH2 Releases are to be made available to stakeholders in the hydrogen community. Comprehensive data analysis and dissemination is ongoing, but the integration of the NREL HyWAM into the HSE LH2 Release Apparatus and its performance as well as some key outcomes of the LH2 releases in WP3 are presented.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Autonomy Architectures for a Constellation of Spacecraft

Until the past few years, missions typically involved fairly large expensive spacecraft. Such missions have primarily favored using older proven technologies over more recently developed ones, and humans controlled spacecraft by manually generating detailed command sequences with low-level tools and then transmitting the sequences for subsequent execution on a spacecraft controller. This approach toward controlling a spacecraft has worked spectacularly on previous missions, but it has limitations deriving from communications restrictions - scheduling time to communicate with a particular spacecraft involves competing with other projects due to the limited number of deep space network antennae. This implies that a spacecraft can spend a long time just waiting whenever a command sequence fails. This is one reason why the New Millennium program has an objective to migrate parts of mission control tasks onboard a spacecraft to reduce wait time by making spacecraft more robust. The migrated software is called a "remote agent" and has 4 components: a mission manager to generate the high level goals, a planner/scheduler to turn goals into activities while reasoning about future expected situations, an executive/diagnostics engine to initiate and maintain activities while interpreting sensed events by reasoning about past and present situations, and a conventional real-time subsystem to interface with the spacecraft to implement an activity's primitive actions. In addition to needing remote planning and execution for isolated spacecraft, a trend toward multiple-spacecraft missions points to the need for remote distributed planning and execution. The past few years have seen missions with growing numbers of probes. Pathfinder has its rover (Sojourner), Cassini has its lander (Huygens), and the New Millenium Deep Space 3 (DS3) proposal involves a constellation of 3 spacecraft for interferometric mapping. This trend is expected to continue to progressively larger fleets. For example, one mission proposed to succeed DS3 would have 18 spacecraft flying in formation in order to detect earth-sized planets orbiting other stars. A proposed magnetospheric constellation would involve 5 to 500 spacecraft in Earth orbit to measure global phenomena within the magnetosphere. This work describes and compares three autonomy architectures for a system that continuously plans to control a fleet of spacecraft using collective mission goals instead of goals or command sequences for each spacecraft. A fleet of self-commanding spacecraft would autonomously coordinate itself to satisfy high level science and engineering goals in a changing partially-understood environment making feasible the operation of tens or even a hundred spacecraft (such as for interferometry or plasma physics missions). The easiest way to adapt autonomous spacecraft research to controlling constellations involves treating the constellation as a single spacecraft. Here one spacecraft directly controls the others as if they were connected. The controlling "master" spacecraft performs all autonomy reasoning, and the slaves only have real-time subsystems to execute the master's commands and transmit local telemetry/observations. The executive/diagnostics module starts actions and the master's real-time subsystem controls the action either locally or remotely through a slave. While the master/slave approach benefits from conceptual simplicity, it relies on an assumption that the master spacecraft's executive can continuously monitor the slaves' real-time subsystems, and this relies on high-bandwidth highly-reliable communications. Since unintended results occur fairly rarely, one way to relax the bandwidth requirements involves only monitoring unexpected events in spacecraft. Unfortunately, this disables the ability to monitor for unexpected events between spacecraft and leads to a host of coordination problems among the slaves. Also, failures in the communications system can result in losing slaves. The other two architectures improve robustness while reducing communications by progressively distributing more of the other three remote agent components across the constellation. In a teamwork architecture, all spacecraft have executives and real-time subsystems - only the leader has the planner/scheduler and mission manager. Finally, distributing all remote agent components leads to a peer-to-peer approach toward constellation control.

Barrett, Anthony↗

New Approach to Monitor Transboundary Particulate Pollution over Northeast Asia

A new approach to more accurately monitor and evaluate transboundary particulate matter (PM) pollution is introduced based on aerosol optical products from Korea's Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI). The area studied is Northeast Asia (including eastern parts of China, the Korean peninsula and Japan), where GOCI has been monitoring since June 2010. The hourly multi-spectral aerosol optical data that were retrieved from GOCI sensor onboard geostationary satellite COMS (Communication, Ocean, and Meteorology Satellite) through the Yonsei aerosol retrieval algorithm were first presented and used in this study. The GOCI-retrieved aerosol optical data are integrated with estimated aerosol distributions from US EPA Models-3/CMAQ (Community Multi-scale Air Quality) v4.5.1 model simulations via data assimilation technique, thereby making the aerosol data spatially continuous and available even for cloud contamination cells. The assimilated aerosol optical data are utilized to provide quantitative estimates of transboundary PM pollution from China to the Korean peninsula and Japan. For the period of 1 April to 31 May, 2011 this analysis yields estimates that AOD as a proxy for PM2.5 or PM10 during long-range transport events increased by 117-265% compared to background average AOD (aerosol optical depth) at the four AERONET sites in Korea, and average AOD increases of 121% were found when averaged over the entire Korean peninsula. This paper demonstrates that the use of multi-spectral AOD retrievals from geostationary satellites can improve estimates of transboundary PM pollution. Such data will become more widely available later this decade when new sensors such as the GEMS (Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer) and GOCI-2 are scheduled to be launched.

Data Assimilation↗

Initial analysis of “stone” size Ryugu samples: current status

As a part of the initial analysis of the Ryugu samples, we perform a variety of analyses of millimeter-sized "stones". Our goals are to elucidate the entire formation process of C-type asteroid Ryugu from the viewpoint of petrology and mineralogy ande obtain necessary information by sample analysis, and then simulate the formation of Ryugu based on the evidencef obtained rom sample analysis. Eighteen stones (8 from Room A and 10 from Room C) were received from the ISAS curation facility on June 1, 2021, and brought into a fully nitrogen-displaced glove box at Tohoku University. At the same time, we also received the powder samples from Room A and Room C. To completely block the atmosphere from leaking into the container, all samples were put in the sample transport containers prepared by ISAS, transferred from the main chamber to the glovebox at ISAS, and then all containers were completely sealed in plastic bags with moisture and oxygen absorbers. No moisture or oxygen was detected when the bags were opened in the glove box at Tohoku University, so it was confirmed that there was no exposure to the atmosphere during transport. To date, a number of analyses have been carried out successfully and almost on schedule. The analysis started with the measurement of reflectance spectra, which are sensitive to atmospheric oxidation, hydroxylation, and adsorbed water. The visible, near-infrared, and mid-infrared reflectance spectra were measured while the samples were kept airtight. The spectra of powder samples and stone samples (as aggregates and as single stone) were successfully obtained. A major feature of the stone team's analysis is the use of synchrotron radiation facilities around the world. Since this analysis is non-destructive, stone samples whose reflectance spectra were measured were sent to KEK, SPring-8, ESRF (France), SOLEIL (France), DESY (Germany), and APS (USA). Using these synchrotron radiation facilities, high spatial resolution and sensitivity XRD, STXM, XANES, CT [1], IR-CT, FT-IR [2, 3], XRF, and Mössbauer analyses were performed. Most of the analyses were carried out under air-tight conditions on the stone samples and the particulates separated from the stone samples. These analyses allowed us to determine the three-dimensional distribution of minerals and elements, redox state, density and porosity of the stone samples. Furthermore, as a characteristic analysis of the stone team, light elemental analysis using negative Muon was performed at the MLF facility of J-PARC with an exceptionally long allocation of machine time. This is the only non-destructive method to measure the concentration of light elements in the whole (not the surface) of stone samples. Because the characteristic X-rays produced by muon irradiation are much higher in energy than the fluorescent X-rays produced by X-ray irradiation, there is little effect of self-absorption by the sample, and therefore, the concentration of light elements such as carbon, oxygen, and Na in the entire "stone" sample can be determined. Some stone samples are currently being measured for heat and strength physical properties in order to understand the physical properties of asteroid Ryugu. The data obtained from these measurements are useful for interpreting the remote-sensing data data taken from the surface layer of the asteroid Ryugu [4-7]. It is also important for understanding the behavior of the Ryugu material during impact events. The surfaces of many stone samples were observed by electron microscopy and other techniques, especially on natural “flat” surfaces formed on 5 stomes. As a result, characteristric mineral aggregates formed by the reactions with water and characteiristic impact features were observed on some of the samples. Based on the observations of surfaces and the synchrotron measurements of the whole stones, important objects such as characteristic structures and specific crystal aggregates for understanding the formation history of the asteroid were identified, and these parts were separated from the stone samples using an Xe beam (pFIB) and analyzed by various methods including transmission electron microscopy and synchrotron radiation analysis. Many stone samples, from which important objects have been separated, are embedded in epoxy resin and cut to produce many polished sections. Electron microscopy and spectroscopic measurements of the polished surfaces are being carried out to reveal the detailed mineralogical properties and elemental distribution inside the stone samples. In the fall, machine time for synchrotron radiation will begin, and we plan to analyze single crystals and characteristic objects separated from the stone samples.

Tomoki Nakamura↗

Retrieving Aerosol Characteristics From the PACE Mission, Part 1: Ocean Color Instrument

NASA’s Plankton, Aerosol, Clouds, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) satellite mission is scheduled to launch in 2022, with the Ocean Color Instrument (OCI) on board. For the first time reflected sunlight from the Earth across a broad spectrum from the ultraviolet (UV: 350 nm) to the short wave infrared (SWIR: 2260 nm) will be measured from a single instrument at 1 km spatial resolution. While seven discrete bands will represent the SWIR, the spectrum from 350 to 890 nm will be continuously covered with a spectral resolution of 5 nm. OCI will thus combine in a single instrument (and at an enhanced spatial resolution for the UV) the heritage capabilities of the Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), while covering the oxygen A-band (O2A). Designed for ocean color and ocean biology retrievals, OCI also enables continuation of heritage satellite aerosol products and the development of new aerosol characterization from space. In particular the combination of MODIS and OMI characteristics allows deriving aerosol height, absorption and optical depth along with a measure of particle size distribution. This is achieved by using the traditional MODIS visible-to-SWIR wavelengths to constrain spectral aerosol optical depth and particle size. Extrapolating this information to the UV channels allows retrieval of aerosol absorption and layer height. A more direct method to derive aerosol layer height makes use of O2A absorption methods, despite the relative coarseness of the nominal 5 nm spectral resolution of OCI. Altogether the PACE mission with OCI will be an unprecedented opportunity for aerosol characterization that will continue climate data records from the past decades and propel aerosol science forward toward new opportunities.

PACE↗

Dispatch optimization of electric thermal energy storage within System Advisor Model

A stand-alone electric thermal energy storage (ETES) system converts low-value electricity into heat using resistance heating elements. During periods of high-value electricity, an ETES system uses a thermodynamic power cycle to convert stored thermal energy back to electricity. These dispatchable systems derive value from their ability to store energy when prices are low and generate electricity when prices are favorable, i.e., energy arbitrage. Consequently, dispatch optimization of system operations, through maximizing revenue subject to system constraints, is essential to evaluate the economic value of a particular system design. While stand-alone ETES systems offer potential advantages as dispatchable grid storage technologies, there is a lack of a neutral third-party, publicly available, open-source model to evaluate the performance, dispatch, and financial viability of these systems. To address this problem, we have developed a techno-economic model for stand-alone ETES systems, within National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) System Advisor Model (SAM). We implement a mixed-integer linear program to determine an ETES optimal operating schedule that maximizes electricity sales less maintenance costs caused by operation and cycling given temporal-varying grid electricity prices. Our contributions include a mixed-integer linear program for energy arbitrage of an ETES system, an ETES performance model through a publicly-available software (i.e., SAM), and an exercise of our model through case studies that compare ETES operational strategies and annual financial metrics. With our dispatch optimization model, we were able to improve revenue by 20% compared to a myopic heuristic while reducing the operational cost of the ETES system through decreases in cycle starts, cycles per day, and heater starts.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Shift changes, updates, and the on-call architecture in space shuttle mission control

In domains such as nuclear power, industrial process control, and space shuttle mission control, there is increased interest in reducing personnel during nominal operations. An essential element in maintaining safe operations in high risk environments with this 'on-call' organizational architecture is to understand how to bring called-in practitioners up to speed quickly during escalating situations. Targeted field observations were conducted to investigate what it means to update a supervisory controller on the status of a continuous, anomaly-driven process in a complex, distributed environment. Sixteen shift changes, or handovers, at the NASA Johnson Space Center were observed during the STS-76 Space Shuttle mission. The findings from this observational study highlight the importance of prior knowledge in the updates and demonstrate how missing updates can leave flight controllers vulnerable to being unprepared. Implications for mitigating risk in the transition to 'on-call' architectures are discussed.

Non-NASA Center↗

Software-defined network for end-to-end networked science at the exascale

Domain science applications and workflow processes are currently forced to view the network as an opaque infrastructure into which they inject data and hope that it emerges at the destination with an acceptable Quality of Experience. There is little ability for applications to interact with the network to exchange information, negotiate performance parameters, discover expected performance metrics, or receive status/troubleshooting information in real time. The work presented here is motivated by a vision for a new smart network and smart application ecosystem that will provide a more deterministic and interactive environment for domain science workflows. The Software-Defined Network for End-to-end Networked Science at Exascale (SENSE) system includes a model-based architecture, implementation, and deployment which enables automated end- to-end network service instantiation across administrative domains. An intent based interface allows applications to express their high-level service requirements, an intelligent orchestrator and resource control systems allow for custom tailoring of scalability and real-time responsiveness based on individual application and infrastructure operator requirements. This allows the science applications to manage the network as a first-class schedulable resource as is the current practice for instruments, compute, and storage systems. Deployment and experiments on production networks and testbeds have validated SENSE functions and performance. Emulation based testing verified the scalability needed to support research and education infrastructures. Key contributions of this work include an architecture definition, reference implementation, and deployment. This provides the basis for further innovation of smart network services to accelerate scientific discovery in the era of big data, cloud computing, machine learning and artificial intelligence.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Design of P-3 Nadir Port

This project details the design and analysis of a structure to replace the interface of the P-3B nadir port with an optimized interface for science installations. A new nadir port plug has been designed to replace the OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) plug (Lockheed PN 910169) currently used in Nadir ports 1 and 2 on the NASA P-3B aircraft. The plug consists of a milled frame that can be outfitted with customizable flat plates to meet a broad range of science needs. The frame slides into place using the existing P-3B rail system using a lever and tie-rod assembly. The seal interface will contact the Fuselage skin of the aircraft and consists of a bulb E-seal that is riveted around the perimeter of the frame. The flat plate (20 inches x 31 inches) provides a large profile that can be outfitted based on science mission goals and requirements to attach multiple instruments. This is a significant increase to the aircraft capability. Previously, the OEM plug had to be modified to hold very small plates, windows, or instruments limiting the use of the ports.There were several challenges for this project that included a constrained schedule, lack of historical references, and reverse engineering. The unusually tight schedule for design, manufacture, and install limited potential approaches. In addition, design of a new interface to replace the existing plug, on an aircraft designed in the 1960's by Lockheed for the Navy with little to no documentation, required substantial reverse engineering. In order to accomplish this, a suitable method to determine interface requirements with the aircraft had to be solved. After several iterations, the solution was to implement laser scanning techniques to scan the aircraft and the OEM plug and generate a 3D model to capture the design envelope. The structure is designed to maintain a positive margin of safety when subjected to the inertial, pressure, and aerodynamic load requirements for an external installation on the P-3B, as described in the Wallops' P-3B Design Requirements 548-RQMT-0001 Rev. A . A finite element model is created in FEMAP (Finite Element Modeling And Postprocessing) and is run through NX Nastran solver to analyze the structure. After several iterations of analysis, the structure was enveloped to hold 115 pounds evenly distributed on the plate.

Chance, Monica↗

DECOVALEX-2023: Task D Final Report

Task D of DECOVALEX-2023 is focused on the simulation of the coupled thermal hydraulic-mechanical (THM) behaviour in the full-scale engineered barrier system (EBS). The Horonobe EBS experiment is the demonstration of the full-scale EBS in the underground research laboratory (URL) (performed by JAEA in the Horonobe URL in Japan). Task D consisted of the three steps, a preliminary step (Step 0), simulation of the laboratory tests (Step 1) and simulation of the in-situ full-scale EBS experiment (Step 2). Since the Horonobe EBS experiment demonstrates the vertical emplacement option of the EBS, the experiment gallery is also backfilled with the backfill material. Therefore, interaction between the EBS and the backfill material can also be demonstrated, such as deformation (change of density) of the buffer material. The underground water in the Horonobe URL is saline. This fact adds chemical processes to THM behaviour. For example, mechanical properties (such as swelling pressure of the buffer material and backfill material) and hydraulic properties (such as permeability of the buffer material and backfill material) change depending on the water chemistry. Task D was therefore a challenging Task focused on not only the relatively simple THM behaviour but also complex THM behaviour including chemical processes. Six research teams (BGR, CAS, JAEA, KAERI, SNL and Taipower) participated the Task D. BGR, CAS, JAEA, KAERI and Taipower research teams selected a THM approach, while the SNL research team selected a TH approach. Step 1 involved the simulation of laboratory test results and was important to check the numerical codes developed by the research teams. Step 1 was divided into four sub steps. The simulation results through the Step 1 identified the parameters for simulation of the Step 2. Basic parameters of the materials (buffer material, backfill material, rock mass, concrete, sand) were provided by JAEA. Special parameters which research team needed were identified by back analysis of Step 1. Most notably the mechanical behaviour of swelling and displacement depended on the applied model (elastic model or elastoplastic model). Parameters such as Young’s modulus were found to need smaller values than characterised in the fundamental laboratory test results (Step 1-1, 1-2) for the elastic model. Although laboratory experiments are usually simple, test results contained some error. For example, if the saturation level is 100 % or higher, it should be considered an error. This situation was presented in the Step 1-3. A possible reason is that the buffer material is a mixture of bentonite and silica sand. When a specimen is cut to measure volume or weight, sand grains will affect the measurement data. In Step 2, boundary conditions such as temperature on the surface of the simulated overpack, heater power of the electrical heaters installed in the simulated overpack, injection pressure and inflow rate of the test water, were applied. The outer boundary conditions can be selected using measured data (injection pressure and inflow rate of the test water that is controlled by the injection systems installed in the sand layer around the buffer material and in the boundary between backfill material and concrete support). Since such measured data has some noise, research teams developed their own simplified boundary conditions. Inner boundary conditions can be selected using measured data as heater power and temperature on the surface of the simulated overpack. These data also contain some noise, so research teams developed their own simplified developed boundary conditions. Task D validated various approaches thorough the simulation of the in-situ full scale EBS system including backfill of the gallery: variations in the coupling processes (THM or THC), analysis codes, and boundary conditions. Temperature distribution in the buffer material was simulated well by all research teams. This means thermal behaviour is not sensitive to the simulation approaches. Although the water content distribution on the outside of the buffer material was well simulated by all research teams, the simulation results differ from the measured values inside the buffer material (at the centre and inside, near the simulated overpack). The buffer material is made from tap water, but in the in-situ experiment, saline groundwater infiltrates the buffer material. Therefore, the selection of the hydraulic parameters of the buffer material greatly affects the simulation results of the re saturation behaviour of the buffer material. In the Horonobe EBS experiment, measured values suitable for validating the simulation results were not obtained near the simulated overpack. When simulating the pressure and deformation of the buffer material, the measurement data is easily affected by the installation conditions of the measurement sensors, so verifying the measurement data itself remains an issue. Mechanical simulation results differ depending on whether they are considered as elastic or elastoplastic phenomena. The accuracy of measured in-situ data can be assessed by detailed analysis comparing sampling specimen analysis and measured data. The Horonobe EBS experiment is scheduled to be dismantled in the future (FY2026 and 2027). This detailed dismantling investigation will finally confirm the measured data.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Atmospheric Depolarization Lidar Experimental Receiver: A Space Shuttle Hitchhiker Payload

Development work is underway at the Goddard Space Flight Center to construct a depolarization measuring atmospheric lidar receiver. The Atmospheric Lidar (AL) is tentatively scheduled to fly on the Space Shuttle in a late-1999 time frame. The AL will fly in conjunction with the Shuttle Laser Altimeter (SLA) and the Infrared Spectral Imaging Radiometer (ISIR) to provide a comprehensive package of atmospheric aerosol and cloud information. The AL operates in conjunction with the SLA laser transmitter and measures profiles of atmospheric backscatter at 532 nm. The receiver system discriminates between the parallel and perpendicular polarizations of the backscattered signal, thus providing depolarization ratios for scattering from clouds. The lidar receiver also provides cloud height and thickness measurements to complement the brightness temperature measurements generated by the ISIR thermal imager. The function of the AL is twofold. The primary function is to provide range-resolved measurements of atmospheric aerosol backscatter and depolarization ratio at 532 nm with 75 m vertical resolution. The scientific purpose of these measurements is to determine composition of clouds based on the depolarization ratio (i.e cloud content is water or ice), to determine cloud height and thickness, and to gain further understanding of the global distribution of aerosols. This information, when coupled with the cloud brightness measured by the ISIR thermal imager will provide a significant amount of information on cloud composition and radiative effects, particularly for cirrus and sub-visual cirrus clouds. A secondary function of the AL is to serve as an in-space test bed for lidar technology advancements, including a fully fiber-coupled receiver and photon counting from space. In addition, the data obtained by the AL will be used to develop software for the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) flight mission.

McGill, Matthew J.↗

Estimating manufacturing electricity costs by simulating dependence between production parameters

The electricity costs associated with manufacturing generally consist of an energy charge and a demand charge, which are calculated by total kWh × kWh and peak kW × kW, respectively. While these two charges have been extensively studied with production scheduling, dependence between production parameters has not been thoroughly investigated for production energy costs when the production parameters are assumed to be independent. Such dependence, however, can significantly affect the peak kW and resulting energy costs. Therefore, industrial practitioners need a tool to simulate the production power demand and cost to evaluate energy costs for each production plan and for any dependence in the parameters. In this paper, we propose a method for simulating the power demand at the machine and facility levels, focusing on the dependence in milling machine parameters. Using probabilistic techniques with copulas, we quantify the degree of dependence between two milling parameters (processing times and processing amounts) and build a power demand simulator combining discrete event simulation and numerical simulation models. From 35 illustrative examples, we show that a production strategy to adjust dependence can reduce the peak kW and energy costs by more than 15% and 4%, respectively. In addition to dependence, less variability in processing times results in less peak kW and energy costs. Other factors such as a marginal probability distribution and copula types having the same degree of variability have been found to have limited effects on reducing energy costs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗