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At least 1,027 records · Page 57

Deep neural network improves the estimation of polygenic risk scores for breast cancer

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) estimate the genetic risk of an individual for a complex disease based on many genetic variants across the whole genome. Here, we compared a series of computational models for estimation of breast cancer PRS. A deep neural network (DNN) was found to outperform alternative machine learning techniques and established statistical algorithms, including BLUP, BayesA, and LDpred. In the test cohort with 50% prevalence, the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) were 67.4% for DNN, 64.2% for BLUP, 64.5% for BayesA, and 62.4% for LDpred. BLUP, BayesA, and LPpred all generated PRS that followed a normal distribution in the case population. However, the PRS generated by DNN in the case population followed a bimodal distribution composed of two normal distributions with distinctly different means. This suggests that DNN was able to separate the case population into a high-genetic-risk case subpopulation with an average PRS significantly higher than the control population and a normal-genetic-risk case subpopulation with an average PRS similar to the control population. This allowed DNN to achieve 18.8% recall at 90% precision in the test cohort with 50% prevalence, which can be extrapolated to 65.4% recall at 20% precision in a general population with 12% prevalence. Interpretation of the DNN model identified salient variants that were assigned insignificant p values by association studies, but were important for DNN prediction. These variants may be associated with the phenotype through nonlinear relationships.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Extremely luminous far-infrared colliding galaxies - Computation of colliding-galaxy luminosity function

A computational model used to determine the luminosity function for gaseous galaxies in collision is described. It is based on the assumption of high-velocity encounters of two thin, gas-rich disks having identical radii and thickness, able to approach each other from arbitrary directions, with arbitrary orientations and with arbitrary degree of overlap. The distribution of expected luminosities generated in the dissipation of translational energy is then found to closely fit the observed distribution of luminosities of extremely luminous IRAS galaxies. Bursts of star formation resulting from such collisions would not have the correct luminosity function.

Harwit, Martin↗

Pooling Data Improves Multimodel IDF Estimates over Median-Based IDF Estimates: Analysis over the Susquehanna and Florida

Traditional multimodel methods for estimating future changes in precipitation intensity, duration, and frequency (IDF) curves rely on mean or median of models’ IDF estimates. Such multimodel estimates are impaired by large estimation uncertainty, shadowing their efficacy in planning efforts. Here, assuming that each climate model is one representation of the underlying data generating process, i.e., the Earth system, we propose a novel extension of current methods through pooling model data: (i) evaluate performance of climate models in simulating the spatial and temporal variability of the observed annual maximum precipitation (AMP), (ii) bias-correct and pool historical and future AMP data of reasonably performing models, and (iii) compute IDF estimates in a nonstationary framework from pooled historical and future model data. Pooling enhances fitting of the extreme value distribution to the data and assumes that data from reasonably performing models represent samples from the “true” underlying data generating distribution. Through Monte Carlo simulations with synthetic data, we show that return periods derived from pooled data have smaller biases and lesser uncertainty than those derived from ensembles of individual model data. We apply this method to NA-CORDEX models to estimate changes in 24-h precipitation intensity–frequency (PIF) estimates over the Susquehanna watershed and Florida peninsula. Our approach identifies significant future changes at more stations compared to median-based PIF estimates. The analysis suggests that almost all stations over the Susquehanna and at least two-thirds of the stations over the Florida peninsula will observe significant increases in 24-h precipitation for 2–100-yr return periods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Large-Scale Simulation of Regional Demand Flexibility Implementation and Customer Economic Impact

The Distribution System Operator with Transactive (DSO+T) study conducted a large-scale simulation of over 60,000 customers in a region the size of Texas to demonstrate the effective coordination of distributed energy resources (DERs) in commercial and residential buildings. The integrated simulation included both the bulk (wholesale generation and transmission) and distribution systems. The DERs (including batteries, electric vehicles, air conditioning, and water heaters) participated in a transactive energy retail market that was integrated into an existing competitive wholesale market. The engineering and economic performance of the resulting demand flexibility was evaluated over annual simulations for both moderate and high renewable generation scenarios. A detailed parametric cost model was developed to enable detailed economic analysis of key stakeholders. In addition, fixed and dynamic customer tariffs were designed and applied to the customer population. This allowed the impact on annual customer bills to be analyzed for various building types (residential versus commercial; single- versus multi-family). This paper presents results showing the relative flexibility of batteries, electric vehicles, and building loads throughout the year and under different renewable scenarios. This feeds a detailed breakdown of the impact this flexibility has on the operating costs of the grid and the resulting net economic benefit. Finally, the study showed that practically all customer classes (including non-participating customers) save money under the proposed demand flexibility scheme. The study found overall net annual economic savings of $3.3-5.0B for a region the size of Texas equating to average customer bill savings of 10-16%.

Reeve, Hayden M.↗

Tuning Monotonic Basin Hopping: Improving the Efficiency of Stochastic Search as Applied to Low-Thrust Trajectory Optimization

Trajectory optimization methods using monotonic basin hopping (MBH) have become well developed during the past decade [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]. An essential component of MBH is a controlled random search through the multi-dimensional space of possible solutions. Historically, the randomness has been generated by drawing random variable (RV)s from a uniform probability distribution. Here, we investigate the generating the randomness by drawing the RVs from Cauchy and Pareto distributions, chosen because of their characteristic long tails. We demonstrate that using Cauchy distributions (as first suggested by J. Englander [3, 6]) significantly improves monotonic basin hopping (MBH) performance, and that Pareto distributions provide even greater improvements. Improved performance is defined in terms of efficiency and robustness. Efficiency is finding better solutions in less time. Robustness is efficiency that is undiminished by (a) the boundary conditions and internal constraints of the optimization problem being solved, and (b) by variations in the parameters of the probability distribution. Robustness is important for achieving performance improvements that are not problem specific. In this work we show that the performance improvements are the result of how these long-tailed distributions enable MBH to search the solution space faster and more thoroughly. In developing this explanation, we use the concepts of sub-diffusive, normally-diffusive, and super-diffusive random walks (RWs) originally developed in the field of statistical physics.

autonomous↗

IEA/SPS 500 kW distributed collector system

Engineering studies for an International Energy Agency project for the design and construction of a 500 kW solar thermal electric power generation system of the distributed collector system (DCS) type are reviewed. The DCS system design consists of a mixed field of parabolic trough type solar collectors which are used to heat a thermal heat transfer oil. Heated oil is delivered to a thermocline storage tank from which heat is extracted and delivered to a boiler by a second heat transfer loop using the same heat transfer oil. Steam is generated in the boiler, expanded through a steam turbine, and recirculated through a condenser system cooled by a wet cooling tower.

Neumann, T. W.↗

Establishing metrics to quantify spatial similarity in spherical and red blood cell distributions

As computational power increases and systems with millions of red blood cells can be simulated, it is important to note that varying spatial distributions of cells may affect simulation outcomes. Since a single simulation may not represent the ensemble behavior, many different configurations may need to be sampled to adequately assess the entire collection of potential cell arrangements. In order to determine both the number of distributions needed and which ones to run, we must first establish methods to identify well-generated, randomly placed cell distributions and to quantify distinct cell configurations. We utilize metrics to assess (1) the presence of any underlying structure to the initial cell distribution and (2) similarity between cell configurations. We propose the use of the radial distribution function to identify long-range structure in a cell configuration and apply it to a randomly distributed and structured set of red blood cells. To quantify spatial similarity between two configurations, we make use of the Jaccard index, and characterize sets of red blood cell and sphere initializations. As an extension to our work submitted to the International Conference on Computational Science, we significantly increase our data set size from 72 to 1048 cells, include a similar set of studies using spheres, compare the effects of varying sphere size, and utilize the Jaccard index distribution to probe sets of extremely similar configurations. Our results show that the radial distribution function can be used as a metric to determine long-range structure in both distributions of spheres and RBCs. We determine that the ideal case of spheres within a cube versus bi-concave shaped cells within a cylinder affects the shape of the Jaccard index distributions, as well as the range of Jaccard values, showing that both the shape of particle and the domain may play a role. Furthermore, we also find that the distribution is able to capture very similar configurations through Jaccard index values greater than 95% when appending several nearly identical configurations into the data set.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Prediction of Distributed River Sediment Respiration Rates Using Community-Generated Data and Machine Learning

River sediment microbial respiration is a key indicator of ecosystem functioning and the biogeochemical fluxes across this critical zone link surface and subsurface waters. As such, there is tremendous interest in measuring and mapping these respiration rates. Respiration observations are expensive and labor intensive; there is limited data available to the community. An open science, collaborative initiative is collecting samples for respiration rate analysis and multi-scale metadata; this evolving data set is being used for making machine learning (ML) predictions at unsampled sites to help inform continued community engagement. However, it is a challenge to find an optimum configuration for ML models to work with this feature-rich (i.e., 100+ possible input variables) data set. Here, we present results from a two-tiered approach to managing the analysis of this complex data set: (a) a stacked ensemble of models that automatically optimizes hyperparameters and manages the training of many models and (b) feature permutation importance to detect the most important features in the models. The major elements of this workflow are modular, portable, open, and cloud-based thus making this implementation a potential template for other applications. The models developed here predict that sediment organic matter chemistry is one of the most important features for predicting sediment respiration rate. Other larger-scale, important features fall into the categories of climatic, ecological, geological, and fluvial settings. Leveraging these larger-scale features to generate data-driven estimates of river sediment respiration rates reveals spatially consistent but heterogeneous patterns across the river network of the Columbia River Basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Distribution function of nuclei from $\mathcal{e}^±$ scattering in the presence of a strong primordial magnetic field

The amplitude of the primordial magnetic field (PMF) is constrained from observational limits on primordial nuclear abundances. Within this constraint, it is possible that nuclear motion is regulated by Coulomb scattering with electrons and positrons (e ± s), while e ± s are affected by a PMF rather than collisions. For example, at a temperature of 10 9 K, thermal nuclei typically experience ~ 10 21 scatterings per second that are dominated by very small angle scattering leading to minuscule changes in the nuclear kinetic energy of order $\mathcal{O}$(1) eV. In this paper the upper limit on the effects of a possible discretization of the e ± momenta by the PMF on the nuclear momentum distribution is estimated under the extreme assumptions that the momentum of the e ± is relaxed before and after Coulomb scattering to Landau levels, and that during Coulomb scattering the PMF is neglected. This assumption explicitly breaks the time reversal invariance of Coulomb scattering, and the Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution is not a trivial steady state solution of the Boltzmann equation under these assumptions. Here we numerically evaluate the collision terms in the Boltzmann equation, and show that the introduction of a special direction in the e ± distribution by the PMF generates no directional dependence of the collisional destruction term of nuclei. Large anisotropies in the nuclear distribution function are then constrained from big bang nucleosynthesis. Ultimately, we conclude that a PMF does not significantly affect the isotropy or big bang nucleosynthesis.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Pricing and Energy Trading in Peer-to-Peer Zero Marginal-Cost Microgrids

Efforts to utilize 100% renewable energy in community microgrids require new approaches to energy markets and transactions to efficiently address periods of scarce energy supply. In this paper we contribute to the promising approach of peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading in two main ways: analysis of a centralized, welfare-maximizing economic dispatch that characterizes optimal price and allocations, and a novel P2P system for negotiating energy trades that yields physically feasible and at least weakly Pareto-optimal outcomes. Our main results are 1) that optimal pricing is insufficient to induce agents with batteries to take optimal actions, 2) a novel P2P algorithm to addresses this while keeping private information, 3) a formal proof that this algorithm converges to the centralized solution in the case of two agents negotiating for a single period, and 4) numerical simulations of the P2P algorithm performance with up to 10 agents and 24 periods that show it converges on average to total welfare within 0.1% of the social optimum in on the order of 10s to 100s of iterations, increasing with the number of agents, time periods, and total storage capacity.

batteries↗

Error propagation in a digital avionic processor: A simulation-based study

An experimental analysis to study error propagation from the gate to the chip level is described. The target system is the CPU in the Bendix BDX-930, an avionic miniprocessor. Error activity data for the study was collected via a gate-level simulation. A family of distributions to characterize the error propagation, both within the chip and at the pins, was then generated. Based on these distributions, measures of error propagation and severity were defined. The analysis quantifies the dependency of the measured error propagation on the location of the fault and the type of instruction/microinstruction executed.

Lomelino, D.↗

Nonstationary Dynamics Data Analysis with Wavelet-SVD Filtering

Nonstationary time-frequency analysis is used for identification and classification of aeroelastic and aeroservoelastic dynamics. Time-frequency multiscale wavelet processing generates discrete energy density distributions. The distributions are processed using the singular value decomposition (SVD). Discrete density functions derived from the SVD generate moments that detect the principal features in the data. The SVD standard basis vectors are applied and then compared with a transformed-SVD, or TSVD, which reduces the number of features into more compact energy density concentrations. Finally, from the feature extraction, wavelet-based modal parameter estimation is applied.

Brenner, Marty↗

High-Performance Monitoring Architecture for Large-Scale Distributed Systems Using Event Filtering

Monitoring is an essential process to observe and improve the reliability and the performance of large-scale distributed (LSD) systems. In an LSD environment, a large number of events is generated by the system components during its execution or interaction with external objects (e.g. users or processes). Monitoring such events is necessary for observing the run-time behavior of LSD systems and providing status information required for debugging, tuning and managing such applications. However, correlated events are generated concurrently and could be distributed in various locations in the applications environment which complicates the management decisions process and thereby makes monitoring LSD systems an intricate task. We propose a scalable high-performance monitoring architecture for LSD systems to detect and classify interesting local and global events and disseminate the monitoring information to the corresponding end- points management applications such as debugging and reactive control tools to improve the application performance and reliability. A large volume of events may be generated due to the extensive demands of the monitoring applications and the high interaction of LSD systems. The monitoring architecture employs a high-performance event filtering mechanism to efficiently process the large volume of event traffic generated by LSD systems and minimize the intrusiveness of the monitoring process by reducing the event traffic flow in the system and distributing the monitoring computation. Our architecture also supports dynamic and flexible reconfiguration of the monitoring mechanism via its Instrumentation and subscription components. As a case study, we show how our monitoring architecture can be utilized to improve the reliability and the performance of the Interactive Remote Instruction (IRI) system which is a large-scale distributed system for collaborative distance learning. The filtering mechanism represents an Intrinsic component integrated with the monitoring architecture to reduce the volume of event traffic flow in the system, and thereby reduce the intrusiveness of the monitoring process. We are developing an event filtering architecture to efficiently process the large volume of event traffic generated by LSD systems (such as distributed interactive applications). This filtering architecture is used to monitor collaborative distance learning application for obtaining debugging and feedback information. Our architecture supports the dynamic (re)configuration and optimization of event filters in large-scale distributed systems. Our work represents a major contribution by (1) survey and evaluating existing event filtering mechanisms In supporting monitoring LSD systems and (2) devising an integrated scalable high- performance architecture of event filtering that spans several kev application domains, presenting techniques to improve the functionality, performance and scalability. This paper describes the primary characteristics and challenges of developing high-performance event filtering for monitoring LSD systems. We survey existing event filtering mechanisms and explain key characteristics for each technique. In addition, we discuss limitations with existing event filtering mechanisms and outline how our architecture will improve key aspects of event filtering.

Maly, K.↗

DOE OE 2021 Strategy White Papers on Microgrids: Program Vision, Objectives, and R&D Targets in 5 and 10 years–Topic Area #1

This white paper describes the program vision, objectives, and R&D targets in 5 to 10 years for the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Electricity (OE) Microgrid R&D Program. The vision is to facilitate the nation’s transitions to (1) a more resilient and reliable, (2) more decarbonized electricity infrastructure, in which (3) microgrids have a reduced cost to implement. This strategy is developed in the context that the United States’ electricity delivery system is becoming more distributed in nature. The electricity generation capacity in 10 years may be 30-50% distributed energy assets.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Combined Radiation and Forced Convection for Flow of a Transparent Gas in a Tube with Sinusoidal Axial Wall Heat Flux Distribution

An analysis is made of the influence that radiation exchanges between elements on the inside surface of a tube have on the wall and gas temperature distributions for forced-convection flow. The wall heat generation has a chopped sine distribution with length along the tube, which is a distribution often encountered in nuclear-reactor channels. The flowing gas is assumed transparent to thermal radiation and hence does not participate directly in the radiative exchange process. Axial heat conduction is neglected in the gas and tube wall, and the convective-heat-transfer coefficient and fluid properties are assumed constant. Several numerical examples are given to illustrate the effects of eight independent parameters such as wall emissivity, Stanton number, and length-diameter ratio. In some instances the radiation exchanges reduced the peak wall temperature or caused a reduction in the exit gas temperature because of radiation losses from the tube end openings.

TUBE↗

Estimated Accuracy of Three Common Trajectory Statistical Methods

Three well-known trajectory statistical methods (TSMs), namely concentration field (CF), concentration weighted trajectory (CWT), and potential source contribution function (PSCF) methods were tested using known sources and artificially generated data sets to determine the ability of TSMs to reproduce spatial distribution of the sources. In the works by other authors, the accuracy of the trajectory statistical methods was estimated for particular species and at specified receptor locations. We have obtained a more general statistical estimation of the accuracy of source reconstruction and have found optimum conditions to reconstruct source distributions of atmospheric trace substances. Only virtual pollutants of the primary type were considered. In real world experiments, TSMs are intended for application to a priori unknown sources. Therefore, the accuracy of TSMs has to be tested with all possible spatial distributions of sources. An ensemble of geographical distributions of virtual sources was generated. Spearman s rank order correlation coefficient between spatial distributions of the known virtual and the reconstructed sources was taken to be a quantitative measure of the accuracy. Statistical estimates of the mean correlation coefficient and a range of the most probable values of correlation coefficients were obtained. All the TSMs that were considered here showed similar close results. The maximum of the ratio of the mean correlation to the width of the correlation interval containing the most probable correlation values determines the optimum conditions for reconstruction. An optimal geographical domain roughly coincides with the area supplying most of the substance to the receptor. The optimal domain s size is dependent on the substance decay time. Under optimum reconstruction conditions, the mean correlation coefficients can reach 0.70 0.75. The boundaries of the interval with the most probable correlation values are 0.6 0.9 for the decay time of 240 h and 0.5 0.95 for the decay time of 12 h. The best results of source reconstruction can be expected for the trace substances with a decay time on the order of several days. Although the methods considered in this paper do not guarantee high accuracy they are computationally simple and fast. Using the TSMs in optimum conditions and taking into account the range of uncertainties, one can obtain a first hint on potential source areas.

Kabashnikov, Vitaliy P.↗

Deterministic multi-qubit entanglement in a quantum network

High-fidelity deterministic quantum state transfer and multi-qubit entanglement are demonstrated in a quantum network comprising two superconducting quantum nodes one metre apart, with each node including three interconnected qubits. The generation of high-fidelity distributed multi-qubit entanglement is a challenging task for large-scale quantum communication and computational networks. The deterministic entanglement of two remote qubits has recently been demonstrated with both photons and phonons. However, the deterministic generation and transmission of multi-qubit entanglement has not been demonstrated, primarily owing to limited state-transfer fidelities. Here we report a quantum network comprising two superconducting quantum nodes connected by a one-metre-long superconducting coaxial cable, where each node includes three interconnected qubits. By directly connecting the cable to one qubit in each node, we transfer quantum states between the nodes with a process fidelity of 0.911 +/- 0.008. We also prepare a three-qubit Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger (GHZ) state in one node and deterministically transfer this state to the other node, with a transferred-state fidelity of 0.656 +/- 0.014. We further use this system to deterministically generate a globally distributed two-node, six-qubit GHZ state with a state fidelity of 0.722 +/- 0.021. In this work, the GHZ state fidelities are clearly above the threshold of 1/2 for genuine multipartite entanglement, showing that this architecture can be used to coherently link together multiple superconducting quantum processors, providing a modular approach for building large-scale quantum computers.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗