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DOE OSTI2023

Walking on the dark side: Anthropogenic factors limit suitable habitat for gray wolf ( Canis lupus ) in a large natural area covering Belarus and Ukraine

Due to successful conservation initiatives and legislations, the grey wolf (Canis lupus) is recolonising its historic range in Europe. However, wolves have never been extirpated across large areas in Eastern Europe but are often constrained to remote and inaccessible places due to centuries of persecution. This study aimed to identify the potentially suitable wolf habitats in Polesia, a massive cross-border lowland region extending over southern Belarus and northern Ukraine, which are often neglected in large carnivore studies at the continental scale. We hypothesized that anthropogenic rather than environmental factors govern wolf habitat suitability. We used a dataset of 4191 GPS locations obtained from radio-collared wolves (n = 26) and confirmed observations (n = 231) during 2014–2021 and applied maximum entropy method to estimate relative habitat suitability for wolves in Polesia. Artificial light at night (ALAN), proportion of cropland and tree cover were the most important factors affecting wolf habitat suitability. Road densities contributed poorly to predicting habitat suitability for wolves. Our models predicted a quarter of Polesia as suitable habitat and revealed priority areas connecting the important source populations in the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone in the east and the Bialowieza Forest in the west and thus essential for long-term wolf conservation. Our results provide the bases for effective, long-term wolf monitoring and management programs in both Belarus and Ukraine. However, national and transboundary wolf management in Polesia has been extremely challenging since 2022 due to the ongoing war and subsequent habitat degradation in this part of Europe.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Turbulent shear-layer mixing: initial conditions, and direct-numerical and large-eddy simulations

Aspects of turbulent shear-layer mixing are investigated over a range of shear-layer Reynolds numbers, $Re_{\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FF}}=\unicode[STIX]{x0394}U\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FF}/\unicode[STIX]{x1D708}$ , based on the shear-layer free-stream velocity difference, $\unicode[STIX]{x0394}U$ , and mixing-zone thickness, $\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FF}$ , to probe the role of initial conditions in mixing stages and the evolution of the scalar-field probability density function (p.d.f.) and variance. Scalar transport is calculated for unity Schmidt numbers, approximating gas-phase diffusion. The study is based on direct-numerical simulation (DNS) and large-eddy simulation (LES), comparing different subgrid-scale (SGS) models for incompressible, uniform-density, temporally evolving forced shear-layer flows. Moderate-Reynolds-number DNS results help assess and validate LES SGS models in terms of scalar-spectrum and mixing estimates, as well as other metrics, to $Re_{\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FF}}\lesssim 3.3\times 10^{4}$ . High-Reynolds-number LES investigations to $Re_{\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FF}}\lesssim 5\times 10^{5}$ help identify flow parameters and conditions that influence the evolution of scalar variance and p.d.f., e.g. marching versus non-marching. Initial conditions that generate shear flows with different mixing behaviour elucidate flow characteristics in each flow regime and identify elements that induce p.d.f. transition and scalar-variance behaviour. P.d.f. transition is found to be largely insensitive to local flow parameters, such as $Re_{\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FF}}$ , or a previously proposed vortex-pairing parameter based on downstream distance, or other equivalent criteria. The present study also allows a quantitative comparison of LES SGS models in moderate- and high- $Re_{\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FF}}$ forced shear-layer flows.

Mechanics↗

DOE OSTI2023

An Open‐Source, Physics‐Based, Tropical Cyclone Downscaling Model With Intensity‐Dependent Steering

Abstract An open‐source, physics‐based tropical cyclone (TC) downscaling model is developed, in order to generate a large climatology of TCs. The model is composed of three primary components: (a) a random seeding process that determines genesis, (b) an intensity‐dependent beta‐advection model that determines the track, and (c) a non‐linear differential equation set that determines the intensification rate. The model is entirely forced by the large‐scale environment. Downscaling ERA5 reanalysis data shows that the model is generally able to reproduce observed TC climatology, such as the global seasonal cycle, genesis locations, track density, and lifetime maximum intensity distributions. Inter‐annual variability in TC count and power‐dissipation is also well captured, on both basin‐wide and global scales. Regional TC hazard estimated by this model is also analyzed using return period maps and curves. In particular, the model is able to reasonably capture the observed return period curves of landfall intensity in various sub‐basins around the globe. The incorporation of an intensity‐dependent steering flow is shown to lead to regionally dependent changes in power dissipation and return periods. Advantages and disadvantages of this model, compared to other downscaling models, are also discussed.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2021

Adding power of artificial intelligence to situational awareness of large interconnections dominated by inverter‐based resources

Abstract Large‐scale power systems exhibit more complex dynamics due to the increasing integration of inverter‐based resources (IBRs). Therefore, there is an urgent need to enhance the situational awareness capability for better monitoring and control of power grids dominated by IBRs. As a pioneering Wide‐Area Measurement System, FNET/GridEye has developed and implemented various advanced applications based on the collected synchrophasor measurements to enhance the situational awareness capability of large‐scale power grids. This study provides an overview of the latest progress of FNET/GridEye. The sensors, communication, and data servers are upgraded to handle ultra‐high density synchrophasor and point‐on‐wave data to monitor system dynamics with more details. More importantly, several artificial intelligence (AI)‐based advanced applications are introduced, including AI‐based inertia estimation, AI‐based disturbance size and location estimation, AI‐based system stability assessment, and AI‐based data authentication.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Impurity transport in ion- and electron-root confinement scenarios at Wendelstein 7-X

This paper reports on the observation of enhanced Ar impurity confinement in high density, turbulence reduced ion-root confinement (IRC) scenarios in Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X). Compared to the central electron-root confinement (CERC), Ar densities are substantially increased up to one order of magnitude and Ar flux profiles switch from slightly positive to pronounced negative fluxes all along the plasma radius in IRC. Estimations of the diffusive D and convective V transport parameter profiles using the STRAHL impurity transport code suggest a fundamentally different behavior in CERC and IRC with, compared to neoclassical values, high diffusive D and typical V profiles in CERC versus strongly reduced D and pronounced negative V profiles in IRC.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sub-percentage measure of distances to redshift of 0.1 by a new cosmic ruler

ABSTRACT Distance-redshift diagrams probe expansion history of the Universe. We show that the stellar mass-binding energy (massE) relation of galaxies proposed in our previous study offers a new distance ruler at cosmic scales. By using elliptical galaxies in the main galaxy sample of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7, we construct a distance-redshift diagram over the redshift range from 0.05 to 0.2 with the massE ruler. The best-fit dark energy density is 0.675 ± 0.079 for flat Λ-cold dark matter (ΛCDM) model, consistent with those by other probes. At the median redshift of 0.11, the median distance is estimated to have a fractional error of 0.34 per cent, much lower than those by supernova (SN) Ia and baryonic acoustic oscillation (BAO) and even exceeding their future capability at this redshift. The above low-$\mathit{ z}$ measurement is useful for probing dark energy that dominates at the late Universe. For a flat dark energy equation of state model (flat wCDM), the massE alone constrains w to an error that is only a factor of 2.2, 1.7, and 1.3 times larger than those by BAO, SN Ia, and cosmic microwave background (CMB), respectively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data from: 'Abiotic influences on continuous conifer forest structure across a subalpine watershed'

This package archives the core data used for analysis and inference in 'Abiotic influences on continuous conifer forest structure across a subalpine watershed' (Worsham et al., 2025). All data were collected in the East River, Washington Gulch, Slate River, and Coal Creek watersheds of Colorado. In the paper, we quantified the relative influence of climate, topographic, edaphic, and geologic factors on conifer stand structure and composition, and their functional relationships, at the watershed scale. We used waveform LiDAR data to derive spatially continuous stand structure metrics. We fused these with a species-level classification map to estimate tree species abundance. We applied generalized additive and generalized boosted models to evaluate the covariability of structural and compositional metrics with abiotic variables. The package contains the essential products required for reproducing our analysis and the tables and figures reported in the publication. The products comprise four classes: (1) geospatial data, (2) tabular data used for inferential analysis, (3) tabular data describing analytical results and performance statistics, and (4) a data user guide. (1) includes discretized waveform LiDAR data, locations and attributes of individual tree crowns, sampling locations and domain boundaries, a canopy height model, and raster files of estimated forest structural and compositional metrics at 100 m grid scale. (2) includes all response and explanatory variable values applied in inferential models. Response variables include conifer forest stand density, basal area, 95th percentile height, quadratic mean diameter, and others. Explanatory variables include climatic water deficit, actual evapotranspiration, elevation, heat load, soil available water content, and others. (3) includes results of training and testing several individual tree detection (ITD) algorithms, as well as inferential modeling results. (4) is a PDF user guide for this data package, including detailed descriptions and data dictionaries for all files. The data package root contains 17 assets: 8 compressed tape archive (.tar.gz) files, 5 comma-separated values (.csv) files, 3 Geographic Tagged Image File Format (GeoTIFF) (.tif) files, and 1 Portable Document Format (.pdf) file. The compressed .tar.gz archives contain ESRI shapefiles (.shp) .tif, compressed LASer (.laz), and .csv files. The archives must first be decompressed using the widely distributed command-line software utility TAR. All other files, including constituent files within the .tar.gz archives, can be opened in the open-source R statistical computing environment. Alternatively, .csv files may also be read in any simple text editor software or Microsoft Excel. Geospatial files including .shp and .tif files can also be opened in GIS software, such as QGIS (open-source) or ESRI ArcGIS (proprietary). The .pdf Data User Guide can be read with Adobe Acrobat Reader or other compatible readers.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns↗

DOE OSTI2021

The role of surfaces in flexoelectricity

We develop the relationship between the strain derivative of the mean-inner potential and surface contributions to flexoelectricity, identifying the true surface-specific component of the flexoelectric response of finite samples. Density functional theory calculations on a range of experimentally observed, low energy SrTiO 3 , MgO, and Si surfaces demonstrate that the mean-inner potential and its contributions to flexoelectricity are sensitive to small differences in surface structure, chemistry, and adsorbates. We also introduce a method to estimate mean-inner potential contributions to flexoelectricity using electron scattering factors and use this approximation to predict total flexoelectric responses for a variety of insulators. Strategies to experimentally disentangle bulk and surface flexoelectric terms are also discussed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Second Target Station Target Streaming for the Preliminary Design of the Target Assembly

This report documents the analysis of dose rate fields from a combination of two sources stemming from the target system of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) Second Target Station (STS). This analysis supports the target drive components’ lifetime estimates and conventional facilities’ preliminary design. The two sources detailed in this report are the radiation generated by the proton beam incident on the target and the activated cooling water in the pipes at the top of the target assembly. The analysis considers the STS target system in operational configuration, with all shielding in place. The dose rate fields are calculated in the target drive room and through the target drive room ceiling. This report calculates the thickness necessary for the target drive room’s high-density concrete ceiling to meet the 0.25 mrem/hr dose limit requirement in the high bay directly above the target drive room. In addition to sizing the target drive room ceiling, this report includes details of the dose field surrounding the target drive assembly to estimate the deposited dose in the target drive assembly components resulting from both streaming and decay of activated water. Prompt neutrons and gammas generated by the proton beam incident on the target primarily stream along the gaps between the target assembly and core vessel shielding. Because the models and analysis detailed in this report are based on the STS preliminary design, future analysis is needed to support the STS final design.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Two-fluid burning-plasma analysis for magnetic confinement fusion devices

The two-fluid, Lawson-type ignition model of (Guazzotto and Betti 2017 Phys. Plasmas 24 082504) for nuclear fusion concepts is extended to burning-plasmas. Numerical estimates for the Lawson product ${p}_{{\rm{tot}}}{\tau }_{{Ei}}$ are obtained for different values of the gain factor Q and different plasma conditions. Namely, different assumptions are made for the various energy confinement times in the model and different density and temperature profiles are considered. It is found that it is easier to reach the burning plasma condition with peaked profiles. A technique for comparing pure-deuterium (DD) 'equivalent' experimental discharges with the predictions of our model for deuterium–tritium (DT) burning plasma discharges is described. This is done through the introduction of 'no - α' quantities using a procedure similar to the one used in inertial confinement fusion. Using tokamaks as a meaningful example, an experimental fit for the energy confinement time is introduced in the calculations and shown to have a considerable effect on the results, qualitatively changing the thermal stability of the system and the equivalent Lawson product estimates of pure deuterium plasmas. Moreover, if the energy confinement time depends on the heating power as in experimental scalings, the equivalent ${p}_{{\rm{tot}}}{\tau }_{{Ei}}$ in DD discharges is higher than the corresponding ${p}_{{\rm{tot}}}{\tau }_{{Ei}}$ in a DT plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Weak Gravitational Lensing of Low Surface Brightness Galaxies in the Dark Energy Year 3 Catalog

We present galaxy-galaxy lensing measurements of a sample of low surface brightness galaxies (LSBGs) drawn from the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (Y3) data. LSBGs are diffuse galaxies with a surface brightness dimmer than the ambient night sky. Given their faintness, the use of standard observational techniques proves challenging. Weak gravitational lensing probes both the baryonic and dark matter content of galaxies, rendering it a powerful technique to estimate LSBG masses. The LSBG lens sample consists of 23, 790 total extended galaxies separated into red and blue color types at $g-i\ge 0.60$ and $g-i\le 0.60$, respectively. We use the Y3 \sc{metacalibration} shape catalog as the source sample, with a number density of $5.59 \mathrm{gal}/\mathrm{arcmin}^2$. We measure the tangential shear around the lens galaxies across angular scales of $0.25-400$ arcmin and find a signal-to-noise of 6.67 for red galaxies, 2.17 for blue galaxies, and 5.30 for the total sample. We fit a model built from two NFW profiles corresponding to the LSBG dark matter subhalo and host halo to the red LSBG shear measurements with an MCMC. We estimate the host halo mass at $7.3 ^{+2.0}_{-1.6}\times 10^{12} M_\mathrm{\odot}$. We place a 95\% upper bound on the subhalo mass at $3\times 10^{11} M_\mathrm{\odot}$. We utilize the lens sample photometry to obtain an estimate of the red LSBG stellar mass distribution. We compare the ratio between the stellar mass and the subhalo mass to the parameterized, satellite-specific SHMR. This work represents the first example of an attempted constraint on the masses of LSBGs using weak gravitational lensing.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Estimating Ocean Observation Impacts on Coupled Atmosphere‐Ocean Models Using Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Observation (EFSO)

Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Observation (EFSO) is a technique that can efficiently identify the beneficial/detrimental impacts of every observation in ensemble-based data assimilation (DA). While EFSO has been successfully employed on atmospheric DA, it has never been applied to ocean or coupled DA due to the lack of a suitable error norm for oceanic variables. This study introduces a new density-based error norm incorporating sea temperature and salinity forecast errors, making EFSO applicable to ocean DA for the first time. We implemented the oceanic EFSO on the CFSv2-LETKF and investigated the impact of ocean observations under a weakly coupled DA framework. By removing the detrimental ocean observations detected by EFSO, the CFSv2 forecasts were significantly improved, showing the validation of impact estimation and the great potential of EFSO to be extended as a data selection criterion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hanford Reach Fall Chinook Salmon Productivity Analysis, Brood Years 1975–2016

Updating the Hanford Reach fall Chinook salmon productivity analysis to include seven additional years of data (BY 2010–2016), including three years of record escapements (>150,000 adults), reaffirmed the highly productive nature of this population and the positive effect of flow fluctuation constraints as implemented at Priest Rapids Dam by the VBSA and HRFCPP. The addition of several years of high escapements also revealed that competition among juveniles (and not spawning habitat limitations) is likely the mechanism driving density dependence in the Hanford Reach. The addition of the high escapement brood years also provided evidence for the high recruitment capacity of the population. As such, the WDFW may consider increasing the maximum escapement goal from 42,000 adults to 49,000 adults, which would be more in-line with SMSY as estimated from this update. Given the in-river protections that are in place as part of the HRFCPP, ocean conditions appear to be the primary factor controlling adult production. Therefore, the success of any additional management actions taken in freshwater are likely to be dependent on survival in the ocean. As such, the most effective management actions may be those that limit juvenile competition and density dependent growth effects in the Hanford Reach. Limiting competition would be expected to increase growth, resulting in larger smolts that would be less likely to suffer size-dependent mortality in the marine environment, even during years of poor ocean conditions. Increasing terminal harvest rates when high escapements are anticipated (from downstream dam counts) is one management option that could help to curtail juvenile competition.

Harnish, Ryan A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Weak Gravitational Lensing of Low Surface Brightness Galaxies in the DES Year 3 Catalog

We present galaxy-galaxy lensing measurements of a sample of low surface brightness galaxies (LSBGs) drawn from the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (Y3) data. LSBGs are diffuse galaxies with a surface brightness dimmer than the ambient night sky. Given their faintness, the use of standard observational techniques proves challenging. Weak gravitational lensing probes both the baryonic and dark matter content of galaxies, rendering it a powerful technique to estimate LSBG masses. The LSBG lens sample consists of 23, 790 total extended galaxies separated into red and blue color types at $g-i\ge 0.60$ and $g-i\le 0.60$, respectively. We use the Y3 \metacal\ shape catalog as the source sample, with a number density of {\color{red}$5.59 \mathrm{gal}/\mathrm{arcmin}^2$}. We measure the tangential shear around the lens galaxies across angular scales of $0.25-400$ arcmin and find a signal-to-noise of 6.67 for red galaxies, 2.17 for blue galaxies, and 5.30 for the total sample. W e fit a model built from two NFW profiles corresponding to the LSBG dark matter subhalo and host halo to the red LSBG shear measurements with an MCMC. We estimate the host halo mass at $7.3 ^{+2.0}_{-1.6}\times 10^{12} M_\mathrm{\odot}$. We place a 95\% upper bound on the subhalo mass at $2.8\times 10^{11} M_\mathrm{\odot}$. We utilize the lens sample photometry to obtain an estimate of the red LSBG stellar mass distribution. We compare the ratio between the stellar mass and the subhalo mass to the parameterized, satellite-specific SHMR \citep{Moster2010}. This work represents the first example of an attempted constraint on the masses of LSBGs using weak gravitational lensing.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Integrating Solar Energy, Desalination, and Electrolysis

Solar electricity enables the advancement and deployment of technologies that are strongly influenced by clean energy availability and cost. The economics of both desalination and hydrogen production from water electrolysis are dominated by the cost of energy, and the availability of inexpensive solar energy creates markets and offers incentives to the desalination and electrolyzer industries. In this report the production of high-purity water and hydrogen from seawater is focused on. Current electrolyzers require deionized water so they need to be coupled with desalination units. It is shown that such coupling is cost effective in hydrogen generation, and it also offers benefits to thermal desalination, which can utilize waste heat from electrolysis. Furthermore, such coupling can be optimized when electrolyzers operate at high current density, using low-cost solar and/or wind electricity, as such operation increases both hydrogen production and heat generation. Results of technoeconomic modeling of polymer electrolyte membrane electrolyzers define thresholds of electricity pricing, current density, and operating temperature that make clean electrolytic hydrogen cost competitive with hydrogen from steam methane reforming (SMR). By using 2020 hourly electricity pricing in California and Texas, it is estimated that hydrogen can be produced from seawater in coupled desalination-electrolyzer systems at prices near $2 kg -1 H 2 , reaching cost parity with hydrogen produced from SMR.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Empirical correlations for prediction of minimum miscible pressure and near-miscible pressure interval for oil and CO 2 systems

Although near-miscible CO 2 flooding has recently received considerable attention, no criteria are available to predict its applicability to a specific reservoir. Evaluating the viability of near-miscible flooding requires experimental exploration of a specific region in pressure–temperature space. The near-miscible pressure field is bounded on one side in P, T space by the MMP (minimum miscible pressure). This paper provides robust empirical correlations to estimate the MMP for both pure and impure CO 2 and for prediction of the near-miscible pressure region for CO 2 -oil. Many slim tube analyses, lacking high density data points, systematically underestimate the MMP, when the near miscible region is not accounted for. They are based on 147 published data sets that include: slim tube experimental determination of MMP; interfacial tension (IFT) between oil and CO 2 ; concentration of solution gas; and purity of the CO 2 . This paper is the first to begin a systematic exploration of the pressure-temperature space within which near-miscible effects characterize CO 2 floods. Our new correlations provide a basis for identifying and investigating the nature of near miscible effects associated with existing CO 2 floods. For a case study of an offshore field we determined that lower and upper pressure boundaries for effective near-miscible flooding, are 0.87 MMP and 1.07 MMP at reservoir temperatures. The proposed model is the first empirical correlation for the prediction of near-miscible pressure region, it will provide the basis for both screening the relative potential of oil reservoirs for economically viable miscible or near-miscible CO 2 -flooding.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Conceptual Design and Rationale for a New Agrivoltaics Concept: Pastured-Raised Rabbits and Solar Farming

Land-use conflicts created by the growth of solar photovoltaics (PV) can be mitigated by applying the concept of agrivoltaics, that is, the co-development of land for both PV and agricultural purposes, to commercial-scale solar installations. In this study, we present a conceptual design for a novel agrivoltaic system based on pasture-fed rabbit farming and provide the technical, environmental and economic analyses to demonstrate the viability of the concept. Included in our analysis are the economic advantages to the PV operator of grazing rabbits at a density sufficient to control vegetative growth, thus reducing the economic and environmental costs of mowing; the dual-revenue stream from the sale of both rabbits and electricity, contrasted with estimates of the capital-investment costs for rabbits co-located with, and also independent of, PV; and the economic value to the rabbit farmer of higher colony-growth rates (made possible by the shading and predator protection provided by the PV arrays and of reduced fencing costs, which are the largest capital cost, by being able to leverage the PV systems for rabbit fencing. We also provide an environmental analysis that suggests that rabbit-PV farming is a pathway to a measurable reduction in agriculturally-generated greenhouse-gas emissions. Here, our calculations indicate that the co-location of solar and rabbit farms is a viable form of agrivoltaics, increasing overall site revenue by 2.5%-24.0% above projected electricity revenue depending on location and rental/ownership of rabbits, while providing a high-value agricultural product that, on a per weight basis, has significantly less environmental impact than cattle.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Approach to Evaluating Reorganization Energies of Interfacial Electrochemical Reactions

Reaction rate coefficients for electron-transfer processes at the electrode–electrolyte interface are commonly estimated by using the Butler–Volmer equation, but their values are inaccurate beyond a few tenths of volts of overpotential. The Marcus–Hush–Chidsey (MHC) formalism yields correct asymptotic behavior of the rate coefficients vs applied overpotential but has complex dependencies on the redox system’s intrinsic parameters, which can be difficult to model or measure. In this work, we bridge the two kinetics formalisms to estimate the reorganization energy, one of the important parameters for the MHC formalism, and investigate its dependence on other intrinsic parameters such as activation barriers, electronic coupling strength, and the density of states of the electrode surface. We examine the sensitivity of the reorganization energy to these parameters, establish some general relationships for accurately predicting rate coefficients using the MHC formalism over a wide range of applied overpotentials, and compare this approach to calculating MHC rate constants with other empirical approaches for the mechanisms of CO 2 reduction on different metal electrode surfaces.

Butler−Volmer↗