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Bridging Equipment Reliability Data and Robust Decisions in a Plant Operation Context

In order to reduce operation and maintenance (O&M) costs, nuclear power plants (NPPs) are moving from corrective and periodic maintenance to predictive maintenance strategies. Such transition requires changes on the data that needs to be retrieved and on the type of decision processes to be employed. Advanced monitoring and data analysis technologies are essential to support predictive strategies. They can in fact provide precise information about health of a component, track its degradation trends, and provide information of its expected failure time. With such information, maintenance operations for a component can be performed right before its expected failure time. This dynamic context of O&M operations requires new methods to analyze data, propagate component health information from the component to the system level, and optimize plant resources. In this respect, the risk informed asset management (RIAM) project has been tasked to develop and test this new class of methods into a risk analytics toolset. This toolset consists of data analytics tools coupled with reliability methods designed to manage plant assets and performances in a predictive maintenance context. This report shows the latest improvements on such development and the initial testing of our methods on the three main research areas that the RIAM project is focusing on. These areas are the following: equipment reliability data analytics, system reliability modeling, and plant resources optimization methods. We show how the methods developed in these areas can support predictive maintenance strategies by: 1) analyzing equipment reliability data (either in numeric and textual form), 2) assessing component and system health through an innovative margin-based reliability approach, and 3) identifying the most critical components and set optimal maintenance schedule based on plant economic and operational constraints.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

MARSAME Radiological Release Report for Diamond Drive Widening and Roundabout Construction Projects, Revision 1

Environmental Protection and Compliance, Environmental Stewardship (EPC-ES) has determined that the soil, concrete and asphalt associated with the Diamond Drive Widening/Roundabout Projects (Figure 1) meets the criteria for unrestricted release to the public under Department of Energy (DOE) Order 458.1, Radiation Protection for the Public and the Environment (DOE, 2020). These conclusions are based on the known history of the area combined with soil sample data collected in 2022; the findings are consistent with DOE Order 458.1 and Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Functional Series Document EPC-ES-FSD-004, Environmental Radiation Protection (LANL, 2021). Sampling and data analysis, as described in this report, were sufficient to meet measurement quality objectives (MQOs) under the Multi-Agency Radiation Survey and Assessment of Materials and Equipment (MARSAME) manual (NUREG, 2009) and LANL procedures (LANL, 2020). Final approvals for waste disposition will come from LANL’s Waste Management Program.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Circular Economy for Photovoltaics in Service of Energy Transition

The challenge of energy transition is immediate and immense; current projections target 75 TW of photovoltaics (PV) capacity by 2050. While any transition to renewable energy technology is preferable to the current fossil-based system, it is ideal to improve the sustainability of PV to minimize negative environmental and social impacts. Circular economy (CE) has been proposed as a method to improve the sustainability of PV, especially for emerging materials like perovskites. CE is a set of actions, principles, and systems which aim to design out waste and keep products and materials in use, to reduce environmental impacts and enable sustainable development. At the most basic level, CE is "reduce, reuse, recycle", the R-actions, in ranked order. CE of a PV technology can be metricized in a variety of ways, such as the Material Circularity Indicator (Smith and Jones, Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2019) or recycling rates. Unfortunately, standard CE metrics have several shortcomings for measuring renewable energy technologies in the context of deployment for energy transition (Figge 2018, Saidani 2019): 1) Only measure mass flows; 2) De-prioritization of the use phase in favor of mass circularity when scoring; and 3) Tight focus on a single product scale The use phase and energy flows of PV are key to energy transition, and therefore need to be quantified. Additionally, correlating product-scale to system-scale is necessary for quantifying the environmental impacts of energy transition. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) can address some of these concerns, but also focuses on a single product scale and has trouble capturing the dynamics of system-scale energy transition, such as the interaction of module lifetime with manufacturing demands for energy transition deployment schedules. Therefore, we developed an open-source Python-based system dynamics model to quantify the mass, energy and carbon impacts of CE R-actions for PV technologies in the energy transition; PV in the CE (PV ICE) (Ovaitt & Mirletz 2021). The tool captures supply chains from material extraction through end of life, incorporating 5 circular end of life pathways. PV ICE takes in any evolving bill of materials, module properties and deployment schedule to support researchers and decision makers with data-backed insights. In this work, we quantify and compare proposed CE sustainable PV module designs and lifecycle management strategies, spanning currently commercialized technologies, government and industry technology targets, and several low Technology Readiness Level (TRL) emerging PV technologies, including perovskites. Our analyses capture the projected evolutions of lifetime, efficiency and material circularity of these PV technologies, as well as their material supply chains. Our analyses emphasize the importance of examining a suite of metrics to identify priorities and tradeoffs, and inform design or lifecycle management decisions holistically. Previous analyses have demonstrated the central importance of PV module lifetime to support energy transition while minimizing impacts. High levels of material circularity (>90%) enable minimizing lifecycle wastes, can reduce virgin material demands if paired with improving efficiency, but demonstrate tradeoffs in energy return on investment. In the fervor of new material and technology development, it is important to remember that CE is not the end goal; decarbonization and energy transition are the end goal. CE should be used in service to improve the sustainability of PV, and R-actions evaluated for their usefulness and efficacy to this end.

carbon↗

Carbon Management Projects (CONNECT) Database and Explorer

Overview The Carbon Management Projects (CONNECT) Toolkit is an online exploratory visualization tool developed by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM) with support from other federal agencies such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT). It provides a single point of access to authoritative information on federal agency investment in a portfolio of research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) projects that have been publicly announced to advance technologies for point source carbon capture, carbon dioxide removal, transport, storage, and conversion, collectively referred to as carbon management. The RD&D programs covered in this tool are authorized by annual congressional appropriations ("Base Program") and the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA). The tool also incorporates public information on other federal initiatives, such as the Regional Clean Hydrogen Hubs, and public information released by other government agencies, such as the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) and Primacy States’ Underground Injection Control Class VI permits and EPA’s facility level greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Developed in a geographic information system, the tool organizes carbon management projects into five groups based on the primary technology that a project aims to advance, each visually represented as a digital layer ("carbon management project layer"). Only federally funded projects are included, which can be awarded projects that are completed or ongoing, or projects that have been selected but are currently under negotiation. Project information can be viewed in the map or in the attribute table below it when turned on. In the map view, each project is displayed at either its host site (for field work), where available, or its performer site (project lead's location, further explained in the table below). Host sites and performer sites are represented in distinct icons. Several reference layers offer additional public information on infrastructural and natural resource environment for carbon management. These reference layers, combined with multiple geographical basemaps, enable users to visualize the carbon management project layers in context. Carbon management project information will be updated monthly based on feedback and information availability. Carbon management project layers Point Source Carbon Capture (PSC) This layer contains DOE-funded projects focused on capturing carbon dioxide (CO2) from power plants or industrial facilities. Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) This layer contains DOE-funded projects focused on capturing CO2 from the atmosphere, including direct air capture (DAC) and DAC hubs, direct ocean capture, enhanced mineralization, and biomass carbon removal and storage. For projects with multiple host sites, each of the sites are displayed individually with the project cost and cost sharing information representing the total for the entire project. Carbon Transport This layer contains DOE- and DOT-funded projects focused on CO2 transport. The Transport Research and Development sublayer contains projects that do not involve physical infrastructure; the Proposed Transport Corridor sublayer contains projects for which either a route for the transport infrastructure has been proposed or a general area for the transport infrastructure has been identified. Carbon Storage This layer contains DOE-funded key projects focused on CO2 storage. For projects with multiple field-work sites, each of the sites are displayed individually on the map with the project cost and cost sharing information representing the overall total for the entire project. Carbon Conversion This layer contains DOE-funded projects focused on converting CO2 into economically valuable products. Reference layers The following layers provide additional information in the geographic proximity of carbon management projects. Users should reference the original sources for more details (weblinks provided below and in pop-up windows on the map). Regional Clean Hydrogen Hub and Facility These layers illustrate the approximate areas of the Regional Clean Hydrogen Hubs announced by DOE's Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations (OCED) and the approximate locations of individual facilities that constitute the hubs (see "Where are the H2Hubs located?" on the webpage linked above). EPA Facility Level GHG Emissions (direct emitter) This layer shows direct CO2 emissions from stationary sources in 2022, using data extracted from EPA's Facility Level Information on GreenHouse gases Tool (FLIGHT). Captured and injected CO2 are not deducted from direct emitters’ total emissions. Contact EPA for additional details. Underground Injection Control Class VI permit/permit application This layer shows the locations of CO2 injection wells that are granted or in the process of applying for an Underground Injection Control Class VI permit by EPA or a Primacy State (currently Louisiana, North Dakota, and Wyoming). The URLs for the permits or permit applications are provided in the pop-up windows associated with the well locations. Contact EPA for additional details. Carbon Storage Resource This layer contains information on prospective CO2 storage resources in saline formations and oil and gas reservoirs provided by the National Carbon Sequestration Database and Geographic Information System (NATCARB) spatial database. Contact NETL for additional details. Existing CO2 pipeline This layer shows active CO2 pipelines based on information digitized from the map issued by the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA). Contact PHMSA for additional details.

Carbon Conversion↗

Determination of the mutual orientation between proton CSA tensors mediated through band-selective 1 H– 1 H recoupling under fast MAS

We report the mutual orientation of nuclear spin interaction tensors provides critical information on the conformation and arrangement of molecules in chemicals, materials, and biological systems at an atomic level. Proton is a ubiquitous and important element in a variety of substances, and its NMR is highly sensitive due to their virtually 100% natural abundance and large gyromagnetic ratio. Nevertheless, the measurement of mutual orientation between the 1 H CSA tensors has remained largely untouched in the past due to strong 1 H– 1 H homonuclear interactions in a dense network of protons. In this study, we have developed a proton-detected 3D 1 H CSA/ 1 H CSA/ 1 H CS correlation method that utilizes three techniques to manage homonuclear interactions, namely fast magic-angle spinning, windowless C-symmetry-based CSA recoupling (windowless-ROCSA), and a band-selective 1 H– 1 H polarization transfer. The asymmetric 1 H CSA/ 1 H CSA correlated powder patterns produced by the C-symmetry-based methods are highly sensitive to the sign and asymmetry parameter of the 1 H CSA, and the Euler angle β as compared to the symmetric pattern obtained by the existing γ-encoded R-symmetry-based CSA/CSA correlation methods and allows a larger spectral area for data fitting. These features are beneficial for determining the mutual orientation between the nuclear spin interaction tensors with improved accuracy.

1H CSA↗

Stochastic Adaptive Droop Control in Frequency Regulation of Power Systems With Intermittent Generators

Modern power systems (MPSs), including microgrids (MGs), are increasingly incorporating multiple renewable energy sources (RESs) such as wind and solar power, as well as battery storage and controllable loads. While environmentally beneficial, these sources pose challenges for control and management due to their intermittent and stochastic nature, especially in maintaining frequency stability with multiple interconnected generators of varying capacities. Traditional droop control methods are effective in systems with generators that are dispatchable and have fixed generation capacities, but they fall short when applied to systems with RESs, where generation capacities are dynamic and affected by unpredictable environmental conditions. To address these challenges, this paper introduces a novel stochastic adaptive droop control (SADC) method for load frequency control (LFC). The proposed method adapts droop coefficients in real time, based on the measured stochastic data of power generation capacities, enabling more effective frequency regulation in systems with variable and intermittent power generation. Unlike traditional adaptive control methods, which assume constant or slowly-varying system parameters, this approach accounts for stochastic processes by modeling them as Markov chains, enabling robust performance under highly dynamic and unpredictable conditions. The key contributions of this work include the development of real-time droop coefficient adaptation algorithms, derivation of their stability and convergence properties, and the demonstration of the advantages of the method through simulations. Case studies highlight the improved performance of frequency regulation, particularly in addressing the impact of stochastic weather conditions and the benefits of reducing dependence on battery reserves in dealing with intermittency of RESs. Finally, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the theoretical foundations of the method, as well as practical implementation insights for future power systems with high penetration of RESs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Hydraulic Properties Data Package for the E-Area Soils, Cementitious Materials, and Waste Zones–Update

Hydraulic property estimates for the soils, cementitious materials, and waste zones associated with the E-Area low-level radioactive waste disposal units have been provided to support the Performance Assessments (PA) for the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (LLWF). Nominal or “best estimate” hydraulic property values for use in the deterministic modeling are provided along with representations of the hydraulic property value uncertainty for use in sensitivity and uncertainty modeling. The hydraulic properties provided for each of the E-Area materials include: porosity ( η ), dry bulk density ( ρ b ), particle density (ρ p ), saturated hydraulic conductivity ( K sat ), characteristic curves (suction head, saturation, and relative permeability), and effective diffusion coefficient ( D e ). A representation of the uncertainty associated with each property, except for the characteristic curves, is provided for each material, except for the E-Area waste zones. These nominal parameter values for each of the E-Area soils, cementitious materials, and waste zones, and, where indicated, parameter uncertainty representations, are based upon the following in order of priority: Site-specific field data, Site-specific laboratory data, Similarity to material with site-specific field or laboratory data, and Literature data. Additionally, a methodology to represent long-term concrete degradation is provided. Finally, because much of the nominal hydraulic property values and uncertainty representations for the E-Area soils, cementitious materials, and waste zones are based on similarity to other materials or literature data, a methodology to prioritize additional work to better define these values and representations is outlined. Prioritization should be based on the importance of the material and/or property to the results of deterministic, sensitivity, and uncertainty modeling. This prioritization should be established through a process of sensitivity modeling. This report supersedes the previous hydraulic properties data package. Revision 1 contains clarifications, updates and corrections to text, figures and tables in a number of places in the report along with some minor editing.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

MARSAME Release Report for TA-03 Building 16

Environmental Protection and Compliance, Environmental Stewardship (EPC-ES) has determined that materials associated with technical area 3, Buildings 16 and 18 (collectively known as TA-3-16) (Figure 1) do not meet the criteria for unrestricted release to the public under Department of Energy (DOE) Order 458.1, Radiation Protection for the Public and the Environment (DOE 2020) and are to be treated as Low Level Waste (LLW). These conclusions are based on the known history of the building combined with radiation survey data collected in 2020 and 2021, and findings are consistent with DOE Order 458.1 and Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Functional Series Document EPC-ES-FSD-004, Environmental Radiation Protection (LANL 2020a). Sampling and data analysis, as described in this report, were sufficient to meet measurement quality objectives under the Multi-Agency Radiation Survey and Assessment of Materials and Equipment (MARSAME) manual (MARSAME 2000) and LANL procedures (LANL 2020b). Final approvals for waste disposition will come from LANL’s Waste Management Program.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Advancing Offshore Wind Resource Characterization Using Buoy-based Observations

As countries continue to implement sustainable and renewable energy goals, the need for affordable low-carbon technologies, including those related to offshore wind energy, is accelerating. The U.S. federal government recognizes the environmental and economic benefits of offshore wind development and is taking the necessary steps to overcome critical challenges facing the industry to realize these benefits. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is investing in buoy-mounted lidar systems to facilitate offshore measurement campaigns that will advance our understanding of the offshore environment and provide the observational data needed for model validation, particularly at hub height where offshore observations are particularly lacking. On behalf of the DOE, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory manages a Lidar Buoy Program that facilitates meteorological and oceanographic data collection using validated methods to support the U.S. offshore wind industry. Since being acquired in 2014, two DOE lidar buoys have been deployed on the U.S. east and west coasts; and their data represent the first publicly available multi-seasonal hub height data to be collected in U.S. waters. In addition, the buoys have undergone performance testing, significant upgrades, and a lidar validation campaign to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the lidar data needed to support wind resource characterization and model validation. The Lidar Buoy Program is providing valuable offshore data to the wind energy community, while focusing data collection on areas of acknowledged high priority.

offshore wind energy, lidar buoy, wind resource ch↗

Carbonate Management to Enable Energy- and Carbon-Efficient CO 2 Electrolysis (Final Technical Report)

The rapid growth and plummeting cost of solar energy have spurred growing interest in using CO 2 electrolysis to produce chemicals and fuels as an alternative to conventional petrochemical processes. High-temperature (>800 °C) solid oxide electrolyzers that convert CO 2 into CO and O 2 have recently become commercially available. Low-temperature electrolysis cells offer the prospect of more convenient and flexible operation, which is critical for utilizing intermittent solar energy, and provide access to more valuable C 2+ products such as ethylene, ethanol, and propanol. Over the past 10 years, research in this area has yielded substantial progress in both fundamental understanding of the requisite electrocatalytic reactions and design of prototype devices. Leveraging insights from fuel cells and membrane water electrolyzers, researchers have developed electrolysis cells with gas diffusion electrodes (GDE) that have demonstrated high CO 2 electrolysis current densities (>100 mA cm –2 ) as well as promising selectivity and stability. Despite these advances, the energy efficiency (electrical energy-to-product) and carbon efficiency (CO 2 -to-product) of low-temperature CO 2 electrolysis remain far too low for large-scale deployment. A preponderance of evidence indicates that the principal source of efficiency losses is the rapid and thermodynamically favorable reaction of CO 2 with hydroxide (OH – ) to form carbonate (CO 3 2– ). Carbonate formation imposes steady-state electrolysis conditions that result in large voltage and CO 2 losses for all known (photo)electrochemical CO 2 cells. While much current research remains focused on CO 2 reduction catalyst design, this largely overlooked CO 3 2– problem presents a fundamental scientific barrier to creating a viable electrochemical option for converting solar energy into chemicals and fuels. The project pursues an integrated, multi-PI research effort that establishes a fundamental science of CO 3 2– management. PI Kanan and Co-PI Mani’s contribution to the project is to evaluate strategies to mitigate the CO 3 2– problem by changing the properties of the electrolyte and the environment in which CO 2 reduction catalysis takes place. Experimental studies showed that electrolytes composed of a high concentration of both CO 3 2– and HCO 3 – , which serve as moderately alkaline buffers, improved the cell voltage by compared to all-HCO 3 – electrolytes, but these buffered systems still show substantial CO 2 uptake that reduces pH over time. Computational studies developed a homogenized model of a CO 2 reduction catalyst layer that permits a low-cost exploration of the high-dimensional parameter space associated with catalyst layers on gas diffusion electrodes. The model was validated by accurately reproducing experimental data for the related but simpler reaction of CO reduction and then used to probe the effects of catalyst layer architecture on CO 2 reduction. Minimizing the size of catalyst and hydrophobic domains in the catalyst layer is predicted to mitigate CO 3 2– formation and thereby enable prolonged operation at elevated pH. In support of the CO 2 electrolysis studies, a new method for rapidly prototyping electrochemical cells was developed and validated. The method uses a combination of 3D printing and electroless plating to generate conductive cell components for evaluating new cell designs. The carbonate problem encompasses mass transport processes and acid-base reactions that are relevant to many other electrochemical systems. Investigation of strategies to address the carbonate problem led to an additional line of inquiry into the physicochemical phenomena that determine the efficiency of electrochemical acid-base production, which has numerous applications in the broader field of carbon management. New strategies for using the supporting electrolyte to inhibit H + /OH – recombination in electrochemical acid-base production were evaluated, leading to the development of a novel acid-base producing system that eliminates the need for ion exchange membranes and exhibits promising efficiency and current densities for scalable applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Monitoring river flow status using low-cost wildlife camera and image segmentation artificial intelligence

Continuous measurement and monitoring of surface water coverage in non-perennial streams are essential for understanding the exchange fluxes between surface and subsurface waters under both inundated and non-inundated conditions. In this study, a wildlife camera photo-based framework was developed to monitor small stream water inundation, depth, discharge, and velocity. Two advanced machine learning models, YOLOv8 and Mask2Former, were utilized to efficiently analyze images captured by wildlife cameras. The accuracy of the framework was validated against on-site depth measurements at six sites in the Yakima River Basin, along with the gage height, discharge, and velocity data from four USGS sites. This approach facilitates long-term, continuous monitoring and quantification of river intermittency and water availability with high precision and low cost, thereby advancing river ecosystem research and management.

machine learning↗

Estimating the Rebound Effect of the U.S. Road Freight Transport

The United States (U.S.) road freight sector has continued to grow over recent decades. Growth in road freight could result in more fuel consumption and hence increased greenhouse gas emissions. Policymakers have attempted to manage the growth of energy usage through improved fuel economy based on technological advances. However, such improvements may not lead to anticipated goals because of the rebound effect, where improvements in energy efficiency trigger more travel and energy consumption that offsets energy savings. Thus, this study aims to determine the potential rebound effect from improved energy efficiency in the U.S. road freight sector. Eight fuel cost models are applied and asymmetric price response is incorporated in estimating the U.S. road freight sector’s rebound effect from 1980 to 2016. In addition, a recently developed data envelopment analysis is applied to determine the annual rebound effect in the road freight sector. The results suggest that, after accounting for the asymmetric price response, the average rebound effect of the U.S. road freight sector ranges from 6.9% to 8.8%, a level considerably less than that found for several industrialized countries and emerging economies. However, a considerable increase in the rebound effect has been seen in more recent years. Here, the findings suggest that overlooking the rebound effect in environmental policies could impede the goal of reducing total energy consumption and accompanying emissions. Policymakers should incorporate the rebound effect from efficiency enhancement in policy development and utilize some potential programs to reduce the adverse influence of rebound effect in related policies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

MARSAME Radiological Release Report for Weapons Facility Operations #5 Decontamination and Demolition Project

Environmental Protection and Compliance, Environmental Stewardship (EPC-ES) has identified materials associated with Weapons Facility Operations (WFO) #5 that meet the criteria for unrestricted release to the public under Department of Energy (DOE) Order 458.1, Radiation Protection for the Public and the Environment (DOE, 2020) and materials in one building that did not meet the criteria for unrestricted release and are to be treated as low level waste (LLW). These conclusions are based on the known history of the area combined with radiation survey data data collected in 2022 and 2023. The findings are consistent with DOE Order 458.1 and Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Functional Series Document EPC-ES-FSD-004, Environmental Radiation Protection (LANL, 2021). Sampling and data analysis, as described in this report, were sufficient to meet measurement quality objectives (MQOs) under the Multi-Agency Radiation Survey and Assessment of Materials and Equipment (MARSAME) manual (NUREG, 2009) and LANL procedures (LANL, 2020). Final approvals for waste disposition will come from LANL’s Waste Management Program.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

MARSAME Radiological Release Report for Weapons Facility Operations #4 Decontamination and Demolition Project: TA-14-0005, TA-15-0009, TA-15-0202, TA-15-0233, TA-36-0019

Environmental Protection and Compliance, Environmental Stewardship (EPC-ES) has identified materials associated with Weapons Facility Operations (WFO) #4 that meet the criteria for unrestricted release to the public under Department of Energy (DOE) Order 458.1, Radiation Protection for the Public and the Environment (DOE, 2020) and materials in one building that do not meet the criteria for unrestricted release and are to be treated as low level waste (LLW). These conclusions are based on the known history of the buildings combined with radiation survey data data collected in 2022 and 2023. The findings are consistent with DOE Order 458.1 and Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Functional Series Document EPC-ES-FSD-004, Environmental Radiation Protection (LANL, 2021). Sampling and data analysis, as described in this report, were sufficient to meet measurement quality objectives (MQOs) under the Multi-Agency Radiation Survey and Assessment of Materials and Equipment (MARSAME) manual (NUREG, 2009) and LANL procedures (LANL, 2020). Final approvals for waste disposition will come from LANL’s Waste Management Program. The scope of this final release report includes Technical Area (TA) 14 Building 5 (TA-14-0005), TA-15 Buildings 9, 202, and 233 (TA-15-0009/0202/0233), and TA-36 Building 19 (TA-36-0019). MARSAME provides guidance on statistical sampling for residual radionuclides in bulk materials; smaller, miscellaneous items can be released via the release procedures outlined in LANL Policy 121 Radiation Protection (LANL, 2023).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Robust Event Classification Using Imperfect Real-world PMU Data

Here, this paper studies robust event classification using imperfect real-world phasor measurement unit (PMU) data. By analyzing the real-world PMU data, we find it is challenging to directly use this dataset for event classifiers due to the low data quality observed in PMU measurements and event logs. To address these challenges, we develop a novel machine learning framework for training robust event classifiers, which consists of three main steps: data preprocessing, fine-grained event data extraction, and feature engineering. Specifically, the data preprocessing step addresses the data quality issues of PMU measurements (e.g., bad data and missing data); in the fine-grained event data extraction step, a model-free event detection method is developed to accurately localize the events from the inaccurate event timestamps in the event logs; and the feature engineering step constructs the event features based on the patterns of different event types, in order to improve the performance and the interpretability of the event classifiers. Based on the proposed framework, we develop a workflow for event classification using the real-world PMU data streaming into the system in real time. Using the proposed framework, robust event classifiers can be efficiently trained based on many off-the-shelf lightweight machine learning models. Numerical experiments using the real-world dataset from the Western Interconnection of the U.S power transmission grid show that the event classifiers trained under the proposed framework can achieve high classification accuracy while being robust against low-quality data.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DECOVALEX-2023: Task E Final Report

This is the Task E final report for DECOVALEX-2023. Task E is focused on understanding thermal, two-phase hydrological, and mechanical (TH2M) processes, especially related to predicting brine migration in the excavation damaged zone around a heated excavation in salt. Salt is attractive as a disposal medium for radioactive waste because it is self-healing and is essentially impermeable and essentially non-porous in the far field (away from excavations). Investigation of the short-term (days to years) near-field (centimeters to tens of meters) behavior of salt is important for radioactive waste disposal because this early period strongly controls the amount of brine in a salt repository. Brine leads to corrosion of waste forms and waste packages, and possible dissolution of radionuclides with brine transport being a potential transport vector to the accessible environment. The main test case used in Task E is the ongoing Brine Availability Test in Salt (BATS) heater test located underground at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) near Carlsbad, New Mexico, USA. The Task was divided into a series of Steps. Step 0 was an introduction to processes in salt, that included matching historical unheated brine inflow data from boreholes at WIPP and matching temperature observations during BATS heater test 1a. Step 1 included validation of models against a thermo-poroelastic analytical solution relevant to heated boreholes in salt, and two-phase flow around an excavation in salt. Step 2 required all the individual components covered in steps 0 and 1 to come together to match observed brine inflow behavior during the BATS 1a heater test. There were a range of approaches from the teams, from mechanistic to prescriptive. Given the uncertainties in the problem, some teams used one- or two-dimensional models of the processes, while other teams included more geometrical complexity in three-dimensional models. The key learning points from Task E have been: • Heat conduction through salt typically requires non-linear thermal conductivity (as a function of temperature), but most models do a good job matching observations, given appropriate adjustments to the applied power and some thermocouple locations. • Thermal pressurization requires coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical (THM) responses that consider the thermal expansion of the fluid and solid phases. • Initialization of two-phase flow models around a borehole or excavation in salt are more realistically represented as “wetting up”, rather than “drying down” (i.e., the initial state after excavation is mostly dry, rather than mostly wet). • The BATS 1a heater test includes a significant release of brine after the end of heating, which requires a large increase in permeability to recreate. Task E has been a great learning experience for all the teams involved, and feedback from the modeling teams has led to changes in the design of follow-on BATS experiments, which are now ongoing underground at WIPP. There was a balance throughout the task between freedom to model phenomena how each team saw fit, and prescriptiveness in problem design to bring the modeling teams closer together to allow attribution of smaller differences between models to different modeling choices. The modeling approaches seem to go through two phases: an early phase of discovery or testing, and a later phase of refinement and improvement. In future modeling efforts, different field data could be used (e.g., BATS 2) and more time should be included in the processes for teams to make multiple model refinement or even significant changes to their conceptual model or setup, based on lessons learned from the modeling exercise.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

PHASM: A Toolkit for Creating AI Surrogate Models within Legacy Codebases

PHASM (“Parallel Hardware viA Surrogate Models”) is a software toolkit for creating AI-based surrogate models of scientific code. AI-based surrogate models are widely used for creating fast and inverse simulations. PHASM anticipates an additional future use case: adapting legacy code to modern hardware. While data centers are investing in heterogeneous hardware such as GPUs and FPGAs, many established scientific codebases remain unable to take advantage of the hardware’s higher parallelism without undergoing a costly rewrite. An alternative is to train a AI-based surrogate model to mimic computationally intensive functions in the code, and run the surrogate instead. PHASM formalizes a development lifecycle for such surrogate models, including discovering functions amenable to replacement with a surrogate model, predicting the resulting performance, identifying the function’s space of inputs and outputs, binding the model to the code, and managing model versions. A suite of software tools for facilitating these steps was written and validated against a set of model problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Achieving Cyber-Resilience for Power Systems using a Learning, Model-Assisted Blockchain Framework

The secure integration and management of distributed energy resources (DER) and power aggregators in the electric grid requires secure communications and a physics-aware Command and Control (C2) strategy. A Blockchain (BC)-based overlay network was developed to provide a security layer for the existing power grid network that mitigates risks in current and legacy network and C2 protocols. By integrating a Model-Assisted Machine Learning (MAML) framework with a Secure Blockchain Overlay Network (SBON) a defense-in-depth strategy was achieved. In our approach, the MAML framework leveraged a smart contract framework to gather network data and learn the dynamics of DER to develop detection strategies for attacks targeting sensors and actuators used by DER. The MAML framework learned dynamical systems models for individual DERs to detect sensor attacks. For DER we utilized a Digital Twin (DT) to accelerate the learning process for a model resistant to stealthy attacks. The project created DT for PV inverters and BESS. The DTs were coupled with a model-assisted, data-driven learning of DER behavior. Specifically, we evaluated architectures for model-based learning with model-free fine-tuning. Additionally, differential privacy techniques were used to obfuscate data, while still allowing the computation of attack detection results based on obfuscated data. The SBON developed leverages a private permissioned blockchain network orchestrated with the Hyperledger Fabric framework. To connect the cyber world, which orchestrates the blockchain fabric, and the physical world where the power network resides, we developed a system implementation to enable the secure interaction of the physical world and the abstracted blockchain.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗