TensorGraphicalModels: A Julia toolbox for multiway covariance models and ensemble Kalman filter
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97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Covariance Data”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Anchor-based optimization of energy density functionals
A new anchor-based optimization method of defining energy density functionals (EDFs) is proposed. In this approach, the optimization of the parameters of EDFs is carried out for a selected set of spherical anchor nuclei, the physical observables of which are modified by the correction function, which takes into account the global performance of EDFs. It is shown that the use of this approach leads to a substantial improvement in the global description of binding energies for several classes of covariant EDFs. Here, the computational cost of defining a new functional within this approach is drastically lower as compared with the one for the optimization which includes the global experimental data on spherical, transitional, and deformed nuclei in the fitting protocol.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Covariance Testing at BNL [Slides]
This presentation discusses testing implemented in FUDGE & ADVANCE in regard to proper ENDF formatting: STAN, STANEF, CHECKR, FUDGE, NJOY, convert to BOXR format, plotting, endfcovreport.py which is an overview of ENDF library’s covariance contents, and covariance Matrix class implements that are the core of all GNDS covariance. Several checks are performed, including symmetric, real, positive definite, condition # of Eigenvalues, and too big uncertainties. The presentation states that it can fix too big and/or small uncertainties and that it can plot matrices. It states that further testing is recommended by CSEWG but has not yet been implemented and suggests methods such as documentation which needs a human to execute, completeness which is partially complete, and reasonableness which has not been started. The presentation concludes by elaborating on reasonableness and states that only cross section is documented, that similar limits on CP reactions cross sections are needed, that maximum limits are needed too which is tricky since ENDF assumes Normal PDFs, and that there may be other observables.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Study of navigation accuracy for the proposed QUASAT mission
A covariance analysis has been performed for the proposed QUASAT, an earth orbiting radio telescope. Conventional (Doppler and range) and advanced (diifferenced and doubly differenced one-way range) radio metric data types are used to evaluate the navigation accuracy that can be achieved. It is found that the mission requirements are met by conventional data types, while advanced data types can provide an order of magnitude improvement with less measurements, provided the three NASA DSN stations are augmented by more closely spaced stations.
Jacobi, N.↗
Monitoring global geodynamical parameter variations with GPS and low earth satellites
A low earth satellite enhances global geodynamical parameters determination with GPS in two ways. First, it improves the GPS orbits, which in turn improve the estimates of other parameters. Secondly, a low earth satellite completes an orbit cycle in far shorter time (90 to 120 minutes) than do GPS satellites (12 hours); it observes more GPS satellites than a ground receiver does in shorter time and increases the correlation between GPS orbit errors. This reduces the error in the determination of nonrotational coordinate parameters, i.e., geocentric offset of ground tracking sites. Covariance results with the global geodynamical parameters modeled as constants, and as random-walk parameters to closer reflect the actual variations, are compared. The effects of using different GPS data quality and different ground tracking network are studied. The case of using two earth satellites in orthogonal orbital planes is also investigated.
Wu, S. C.↗
Monitoring and Assimilation of MLS Measurements in the DAO Ozone Data Assimilation System
Since 1999 the DAO (Data Assimilation Office) at NASA Goddard has operationally assimilated ozone measurements in near real time. Currently, the assimilation system analyzes SBUV profile and total column measurements using an off line CTM with parameterized chemistry within the 3D-PSAS algorithm. During the last year the assimilation system was modified to either monitor or actively assimilate MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder) measurements in conjunction with the active assimilation of TOMS total column and SBUV profiles. It is expected that the active assimilation of MLS profiles will improve analysis results in two ways. First, there should be an improvement in the vertical resolution. Second, there should be an improvement in regions where SBUV measurements do not exist (such as in the polar night). A series of experiments using UARS (Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite) MLS data from December 1991 to March 1992 were run. In these experiments MLS data was either monitored in conjunction with active assimilation of the SBUV profile and TOMS total column measurements, or some combination of MLS, TOMS, and SBUV observations was actively assimilated. Monitoring of MLS data indicated that the MLS observations contain verifiable information that should improve the vertical structure of the analysis results, especially below the ozone peak and above the tropopause. The monitoring also substantiated the potential to improve the assimilation in the polar night. Active assimilation of MLS data does indeed improve the analysis results in these two ways, although the quality of the improvements is not uniform. This suggests that refinement of the specification of the error covariances might be needed to optimize the system. In addition it may be necessary to account for biases between the different sources of ozone information.
Atlas, Robert↗
Approaches to Evaluating Probability of Collision Uncertainty
While the two-dimensional probability of collision (Pc) calculation has served as the main input to conjunction analysis risk assessment for over a decade, it has done this mostly as a point estimate, with relatively little effort made to produce confidence intervals on the Pc value based on the uncertainties in the inputs. The present effort seeks to try to carry these uncertainties through the calculation in order to generate a probability density of Pc results rather than a single average value. Methods for assessing uncertainty in the primary and secondary objects' physical sizes and state estimate covariances, as well as a resampling approach to reveal the natural variability in the calculation, are presented; and an initial proposal for operationally-useful display and interpretation of these data for a particular conjunction is given.
PROBABILITY↗
Conjunction Assessment Screening Volume Sizing and Event Filtering in Light of Natural Conjunction Event Development Behaviors
Conjunction Assessment screening volumes used in the protection of NASA satellites are constructed as geometric volumes about these satellites, of a size expected to capture a certain percentage of the serious conjunction events by a certain time before closest approach. However, the analyses that established these sizes were grounded on covariance-based projections rather than empirical screening results, did not tailor the volume sizes to ensure operational actionability of those results, and did not consider the adjunct ability to produce data that could provide prevenient assistance for maneuver planning. The present study effort seeks to reconsider these questions based on a six-month dataset of empirical screening results using an extremely large screening volume. The results, pursued here for a highly-populated orbit regime near 700 km altitude, identify theoretical limits of screening volume performance, explore volume configuration to facilitate both maneuver remediation planning as well as basic asset protection, and recommend sizing principles that maximize volume performance while minimizing the capture of "chaff" conjunctions that are unlikely ever to become serious events.
screening volume↗
Intensive and extensive margins of the peak load: Measuring adaptation with mixed frequency panel data
In this work we investigate the response of daily electricity peak load to daily maximum temperatures across states in Europe and India. We propose a method that decomposes short- from medium/long-run effects, retains the high frequency nature of the load-weather covariation and treats economic growth as a modulating factor. By simultaneously exploiting variation in unexpected daily weather anomalies and decade-long climatic changes in each location we decompose transitory - intensive margin - adjustments from permanent - extensive margin - adjustments. We find that the shocks over the long-run differ substantially from the short-run dynamics. Furthermore, we find evidence that per capita income modulates the adjustments over the short- and long-run. We project that in response to climate change around 2050 the peak load may increase by up to 20%-30% in Southern Europe and in several states in India, depending on the degree of warming and the evolution of socio-economic conditions. Even with a limited scope to two world regions, we identify that the structure of the economy and differences in future income growth matter in shaping the adaptation to climate change. Our decomposition allows to identify how future weather anomalies can further amplify the relative increase associated to the shift in the climate norm. Assuming that the interannual variability of maximum temperatures follows the distribution observed in the past, we find a doubling of the impacts of climate change during the summer in Europe. Uncertainty around the distribution of future weather anomalies may lead to further unexpected peak load amplifications. Our results have important policy implications for power systems’ generation capacity, transmission and storage, as we show that the challenges to accommodate the peak load in days with extreme temperatures may substantially increase already around mid-century.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Charge balancing of trivalent trace elements in olivine and low-Ca pyroxene - A test using experimental partitioning data
Charge-balancing substitution mechanisms are determined for the incorporation of the trivalent cations Al and Sc in low-Ca pyroxene and Al, Sc, Yb, and Cr in olivine. In low-Ca pyroxene, the substitution mechanism is determined by evaluating covariations of trivalent trace cations with Si, Mg, Fe, and Ca. In olivine, substitution mechanisms are determined by comparing the observed compositional dependence of partitioning to the compositional dependence theoretically expected for each substitution reaction. A realistic equilibrium constant is formulated for trace element exchanges between olivines, low-Ca pyroxenes, and melt, making possible improved modeling of the variations of trace element partitioning with temperature and phase composition.
Colson, R. O.↗
Comparison of TOPEX/Poseidon orbit determination solutions obtained by the Goddard Space Flight Center Flight Dynamics Division and Precision Orbit Determination Teams
Orbit determination results are obtained by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD) using the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) and a real-time extended Kalman filter estimation system to process Tracking Data and Relay Satellite (TDRS) System (TDRSS) measurements in support of the Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX)/Poseidon spacecraft navigation and health and safety operations. GTDS is the operational orbit determination system used by the FDD, and the extended Kalman fliter was implemented in an analysis prototype system, the Real-Time Orbit Determination System/Enhanced (RTOD/E). The Precision Orbit Determination (POD) team within the GSFC Space Geodesy Branch generates an independent set of high-accuracy trajectories to support the TOPEX/Poseidon scientific data. These latter solutions use the Geodynamics (GEODYN) orbit determination system with laser ranging tracking data. The TOPEX/Poseidon trajectories were estimated for the October 22 - November 1, 1992, timeframe, for which the latest preliminary POD results were available. Independent assessments were made of the consistencies of solutions produced by the batch and sequential methods. The batch cases were assessed using overlap comparisons, while the sequential cases were assessed with covariances and the first measurement residuals. The batch least-squares and forward-filtered RTOD/E orbit solutions were compared with the definitive POD orbit solutions. The solution differences were generally less than 10 meters (m) for the batch least squares and less than 18 m for the sequential estimation solutions. The differences among the POD, GTDS, and RTOD/E solutions can be traced to differences in modeling and tracking data types, which are being analyzed in detail.
Doll, C.↗
A Prototype Physical Database for Passive Microwave Retrievals of Precipitation over the US Southern Great Plains
An accurate understanding of the instantaneous, dynamic land surface emissivity is necessary for a physically based, multi-channel passive microwave precipitation retrieval scheme over land. In an effort to assess the feasibility of the physical approach for land surfaces, a semi-empirical emissivity model is applied for calculation of the surface component in a test area of the US Southern Great Plains. A physical emissivity model, using land surface model data as input, is used to calculate emissivity at the 10GHz frequency, combining contributions from the underlying soil and vegetation layers, including the dielectric and roughness effects of each medium. An empirical technique is then applied, based upon a robust set of observed channel covariances, extending the emissivity calculations to all channels. For calculation of the hydrometeor contribution, reflectivity profiles from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Precipitation Radar (TRMM PR) are utilized along with coincident brightness temperatures (Tbs) from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI), and cloud-resolving model profiles. Ice profiles are modified to be consistent with the higher frequency microwave Tbs. Resulting modeled top of the atmosphere Tbs show correlations to observations of 0.9, biases of 1K or less, root-mean-square errors on the order of 5K, and improved agreement over the use of climatological emissivity values. The synthesis of these models and data sets leads to the creation of a simple prototype Tb database that includes both dynamic surface and atmospheric information physically consistent with the land surface model, emissivity model, and atmospheric information.
microwave↗
The Diurnal Dynamics of Gross Primary Productivity Using Observations From the Advanced Baseline Imager on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite‐R Series at an Oak Savanna Ecosystem
Gross primary productivity (GPP) is the largest flux in the global carbon cycle and satellite-based GPP estimates have long been used to study the trends and interannual variability of GPP. With recent updates to geostationary satellites, we can now explore the diurnal variability of GPP at a comparable spatial resolution to polar-orbiting satellites and at temporal frequencies comparable to eddy covariance (EC) tower sites. We used observations from the Advanced Baseline Imager on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R series (GOES-R) to test the ability of subdaily satellite data to capture the shifts in the diurnal course of GPP at an oak savanna EC site in California, USA that is subject to seasonal soil moisture declines. We compared three methods to estimate GPP: (a) a light-use efficiency model, (b) a linear relationship between the product of near-infrared reflectance of vegetation and photosynthetically active radiation (LIN-NIR v P) and EC tower GPP, and (c) a light response curve (LRC-NIR v P) between NIR v P and EC GPP. The LRC-NIR v P achieved the lowest mean absolute error for winter (2 µmol CO 2 m –2 s –1 ), spring (2.51 µmol CO 2 m –2 s –1 ), summer (1.43 µmol CO 2 m –2 s –1 ), and fall (1.35 µmol CO 2 m –2 s –1 ). The ecosystem experienced the largest shift in daily peak GPP in relation to the peak of incoming solar radiation toward the morning hours during the dry summers. The LRC-NIRvP and the light-use efficiency model were in agreement with these patterns of a shift in peak daily GPP toward the morning hours during summer. Our results can help develop diurnal estimates of GPP from geostationary satellites that are sensitive to fluctuating environmental conditions during the day.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A road map to cosmological parameter analysis with third-order shear statistics: III. Efficient estimation of third-order shear correlation functions and an application to the KiDS-1000 data
Context. Third-order lensing statistics contain a wealth of cosmological information that is not captured by second-order statistics. However, the computational effort it takes to estimate such statistics in forthcoming stage IV surveys is prohibitively expensive. Aims. We derive and validate an efficient estimation procedure for the three-point correlation function (3PCF) of polar fields such as weak lensing shear. We then use our approach to measure the shear 3PCF and the third-order aperture mass statistics on the KiDS-1000 survey. Methods We constructed an efficient estimator for third-order shear statistics that builds on the multipole decomposition of the 3PCF. We then validated our estimator on mock ellipticity catalogs obtained from N -body simulations. Finally, we applied our estimator to the KiDS-1000 data and presented a measurement of the third-order aperture statistics in a tomographic setup. Results. Our estimator provides a speedup of a factor of ∼100–1000 compared to the state-of-the-art estimation procedures. It is also able to provide accurate measurements for squeezed and folded triangle configurations without additional computational effort. We report a significant detection of tomographic third-order aperture mass statistics in the KiDS-1000 data (S/N = 6.69). Conclusions. Our estimator will make it computationally feasible to measure third-order shear statistics in forthcoming stage IV surveys. Furthermore, it can be used to construct empirical covariance matrices for such statistics.
Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
Fast radio burst dispersion measure distribution as a probe of helium reionization
Fast radio burst (FRB) discoveries are occurring rapidly, with thousands expected from upcoming surveys. The dispersion measures (DM) observed for FRB include important information on cosmological distances and the ionization state of the universe from the redshift of emission until today. Rather than considering the DM–redshift relation, we investigate the statistical ensemble of the distribution of dispersion measures. Here, we explore the use of this abundance information, with and without redshift information, to probe helium reionization through simulated data to redshift z = 6. Carrying out Monte Carlo simulations of FRB survey samples, we examine the effect of different source redshift distributions, host galaxy models, sudden vs gradual reionization, and covariance with cosmological parameters on determination of helium reionization properties. We find that a fluence limited survey with 10 4 FRBs can discriminate different helium reionization histories at ~6σ using the DM-distribution of bursts, without redshift information (and ~10σ with redshifts).
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Daily evapotranspiration changes during heatwaves at 32 NEON sites, 2019-2021
This dataset provides partitioned evapotranspiration (ET, the combined loss of water from soil and plant surfaces) anomalies during heatwave events—soil evaporation (E) and transpiration (T)—for 268 heatwave events across 32 National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) flux sites in the contiguous United States from 2019–2021. Using an ensemble of four high-frequency turbulence methods (Flux-variance Similarity, Conditional Eddy Covariance [CEC], CEC with Water-Use Efficiency, and Conditional Eddy Accumulation; see Zahn and Bou-Zeid 2024), half-hourly transpiration-to-evapotranspiration (T/ET) ratios were derived from 20 hertz (Hz, cycles per second) eddy covariance measurements of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and water vapor (H₂O) concentrations. The dataset spans six vegetation types including evergreen and deciduous forests, grasslands, cultivated crops, shrublands, and emergent herbaceous wetlands. Data Package Contents: The dataset includes a single CSV (comma-separated values) file containing daily anomalies (deviations from baseline conditions) for transpiration (Delta_T), evaporation (Delta_E), total evapotranspiration (Delta_ET), and T/ET ratio (Delta_T_ET) during each day of identified heatwave events. The file also includes site codes, dates, heatwave event identifiers, and day-of-heatwave indicators. The CSV file can be opened with spreadsheet software (Microsoft Excel, Google Sheets) or programming environments (Python, R, MATLAB). This resource enables researchers to investigate ecosystem-specific responses to thermal extremes, validate land surface model partitioning of ET fluxes, and examine feedbacks between water cycling and surface energy balance during heatwaves. The dataset is particularly valuable for studies linking vegetation hydraulic strategies to climate resilience, as it captures the divergent responses of shallow-rooted versus deep-rooted ecosystems. Potential applications include improving drought early warning systems, informing irrigation management strategies, and advancing our mechanistic understanding of land-atmosphere interactions under extreme heat conditions.
Day of Heatwave↗
Dark Matter Constraints from a Unified Analysis of Strong Gravitational Lenses and Milky Way Satellite Galaxies
Joint analyses of small-scale cosmological structure probes have been relatively unexplored yet promise to advance measurements of microphysical dark matter properties using heterogeneous data. Here, we present a multidimensional analysis of dark matter substructure using strong gravitational lenses and the Milky Way (MW) satellite galaxy population, accounting for degeneracies in model predictions and using covariances in the constraining power of these individual probes for the first time. We simultaneously infer the projected subhalo number density and the half-mode mass describing the suppression of the subhalo mass function in thermal relic warm dark matter (WDM), $M_{\mathrm{hm}}$, using the semianalytic model \texttt{Galacticus} to connect the subhalo population inferred from MW satellite observations to the strong lensing host halo mass and redshift regime. Combining MW satellite and strong lensing posteriors in this parameter space yields $M_{\mathrm{hm}}<10^{7.0}\ M_{\mathrm{\odot}}$ (WDM particle mass $m_{\mathrm{WDM}}>9.7\ \mathrm{keV}$) at $95\%$ confidence and disfavors $M_{\mathrm{hm}}=10^{7.4}\ M_{\mathrm{\odot}}$ ($m_{\mathrm{WDM}}=7.4\ \mathrm{keV}$) with a 20:1 marginal likelihood ratio, improving limits on $m_{\mathrm{WDM}}$ set by the two methods independently by $\sim 30\%$. These results are marginalized over the line-of-sight contribution to the strong lensing signal, the mass of the MW host halo, and the efficiency of subhalo disruption due to baryons and are robust to differences in the disruption efficiency between the MW and strong lensing regimes at the $\sim 10\%$ level. This work paves the way for unified analyses of next-generation small-scale structure measurements covering a wide range of scales and redshifts.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
TDRSS orbit determination using short baseline differenced carrier phase
This paper discusses a covariance study on the feasibility of using station-differenced carrier phase on short baselines to track the TDRSS satellites. Orbit accuracies for the TDRSS using station-differenced carrier phase data and range data collected from White Sands, NM are given for various configurations of ground stations and range data precision. A one-sigma-position position accuracy of 25 meters can be achieved using two orthogonal baselines of 100 km for the station-differenced phase data and range data with 1 m accuracy. Relevant configuration parameters for the tracking system and important sources of error are examined. The ability of these data to redetermine the position after a station keeping maneuver is addressed. The BRTS system, which is currently used for TDRSS orbit determination, is briefly described and its errors are given for comparison.
Nandi, S.↗