A Modelling Framework for Understanding the Impacts of Radioactive and Chemo-toxic Waste Disposals - 18199
In order to assess the compliance of a radioactive waste disposal facility against regulatory requirements, it is usual to develop a numerical model that provides estimates of quantities such as effective dose, radiological risk and environmental concentrations at times in the future after disposal of the wastes. An important aspect of a safety case based on the results of the numerical assessment model is to develop understanding and confidence in the results. This understanding includes determining why the magnitudes of the results are as they are, determining the key controlling parameters on the model outputs, providing confidence that the model outputs are credible, providing an alternative and complementary modelling approach, undertaking sensitivity analyses and facilitating communication of the safety case results with stakeholders. In this paper we present a modelling approach that addresses these issues for a wide range of disposal concepts. The approach captures the key processes that affect contaminant migration and transport, and uses analytical solutions to provide insight and understanding about the behaviour of a disposal system. The approach has been tested against a wide range of concepts for LLW, ILW, HLW and SF. In all cases, agreement with the results from numerical assessment models is found to be very good, with estimates of peak radiological risk and other metrics within a factor of two or better, compared with those from numerical assessment models. This agreement is achieved for assessment results that can potentially span many orders of magnitude. (authors)