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Comprehensive Total Cost of Ownership Quantification for Vehicles with Different Size Classes and Powertrains

In order to accurately compare the costs of two vehicles, the total cost of ownership (TCO) should consist of all costs related to both purchasing and operating the vehicle. This TCO analysis builds on previous work to provide a comprehensive perspective of all relevant vehicle costs of ownership. In this report, we present what we believe to be the most comprehensive explicit financial analysis of the costs that will be incurred by a vehicle owner. This study considers vehicle cost and depreciation, financing, fuel costs, insurance costs, maintenance and repair costs, taxes and fees, and other operational costs to formulate a holistic total cost of ownership and operation of multiple different vehicles. For each of these cost parameters that together constitute a comprehensive TCO, extensive literature review and data analysis were performed to find representative values in order to build a holistic TCO for vehicles of all size classes. The light- and heavy-duty vehicles selected for analysis in this report are representative of those that are on the road today and expected to be available in the future. Important additive analyses in this study include systematic analysis of vehicle depreciation, in-depth examination of insurance premium costs, comprehensive maintenance and repair estimates, analysis of all relevant taxes and fees, and considerations of specific costs applicable to commercial vehicles. We find that cars depreciate faster than light trucks and that older plug-in electric vehicles have a greater depreciation rate than newer electric vehicles. Light-duty vehicle (LDV) insurance costs show comparable costs for different powertrains, and lower costs for larger size classes. Medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) insurance costs vary significantly by vocation. Electric and electrified powertrains have lower maintenance and repair costs than internal combustion engine (ICE) powertrains for all vehicle sizes, relative to vehicle price. MHDV maintenance and repair costs depend heavily on vocation and duty cycle. LDV taxes and fees are comparable across powertrain types and size classes, though marginally higher registration fees exist for alternative fuel vehicles. MHDV fees depend on the vocation, weight rating, and state. Many electric tractor trailers would be affected by additional battery weight, reducing the available payload capacity, and this cost can be substantial. Electric vehicle charging for commercial vehicles can be time-consuming; labor rates can cause this cost to dominate TCO. With improved knowledge of each of the cost components, we calculate a lifetime TCO for comparison across vehicles of different types and attributes. For a simulated small sport utility vehicle in 2025, modeled using Autonomie, the hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) has the lowest cost, followed by the conventional ICE vehicle. For MHDV, TCO can be drastically different depending on the vocation. Long-haul vehicles typically have the lowest per-mile costs. Excluding labor costs, the class 4 delivery has a comparable TCO to the day cab. Vocational trucks, refuse trucks, and transit buses have a high per-mile cost of ownership due to maintenance and insurance. For all of these vehicles, the cost of operating the vehicle is heavily weighted by the labor of the driver, followed by the fuel costs. While the HEV begins as the lowest cost powertrain for passenger vehicles, fuel cells are forecast to reach cost parity by 2030 when hydrogen prices reach $\$ 5$/kg while battery electric vehicles (BEV) reach cost parity by 2035 at a battery cost of $\$ 98$ per usable kWh of capacity, with these two technologies being the lowest cost in 2050. For the class 8 day cab tractor, the HEV and ICE vehicle begin as the lowest cost powertrains, and the 250-mile BEV reduces in cost from the most expensive to the least expensive by 2030.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Novel Active Optimization Approach for Rapid and Efficient Design Space Exploration Using Ensemble Machine Learning

In this work, a novel design optimization technique based on active learning, which involves dynamic exploration and exploitation of the design space of interest using an ensemble of machine learning algorithms, is presented. In this approach, a hybrid methodology incorporating an explorative weak learner (regularized basis function model) that fits high-level information about the response surface and an exploitative strong learner (based on committee machine) that fits finer details around promising regions identified by the weak learner is employed. For each design iteration, an aristocratic approach is used to select a set of nominees, where points that meet a threshold merit value as predicted by the weak learner are selected for evaluation. In addition to these points, the global optimum as predicted by the strong learner is also evaluated to enable rapid convergence to the actual global optimum once the most promising region has been identified by the optimizer. Additionally, this methodology is first tested by applying it to the optimization of a two-dimensional multi-modal surface and, subsequently, to a complex internal combustion (IC) engine combustion optimization case with nine control parameters related to fuel injection, initial thermodynamic conditions, and in-cylinder flow. It is found that the new approach significantly lowers the number of function evaluations that are needed to reach the optimum design configuration (by up to 80%) when compared to conventional optimization techniques, such as particle swarm and genetic algorithm-based optimization techniques.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

High-dimensional Data-driven Energy optimization for Multi-Modal Transit Agencies (HD-EMMA) (Final Technical Report)

Public bus transit services in the U.S. are responsible for at least 19.7 million metric tons of CO 2 emission annually. Electric vehicles (EVs) can have a much lower environmental impact than comparable internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), especially in urban areas. Unfortunately, EVs are also much more expensive than ICEVs. As a result, many public transit agencies can afford only mixed fleets of transit vehicles, consisting of EVs, hybrids (HEVs), and ICEVs. Transit agencies that operate such mixed fleets of vehicles face a challenging optimization problem: these agencies need to decide which vehicles are assigned to serving which transit trips. Since the advantage of EVs over ICEVs varies depending on the route and time of day (e.g., the benefit of EVs is higher in slower traffic with frequent stops and lower on highways), the assignment can have a significant effect on energy use and, hence, environmental impact. Through this project, we have developed reference data about energy collections and constructed a set of machine learning models that can accurately predict the energy consumption for the whole fleet at the level of each trip. We have used these models to develop a scheduling and assignment strategy that can rotate the different vehicle types across the transit agencies’ routes. The optimization algorithm ensures that the vehicles are matched to trips considering weather patterns, expected congestion, and road gradients to minimize the overall energy usage. We list the key observations from our project for other practitioners below. Details are available in the report, and the list of source code and our publications are included in the appendix. 1. We have demonstrated the feasibility of collecting, merging and analyzing large volumes of high-resolution real-world telemetry data from a mixed vehicle fleet. To mitigate the inherent noise of the recorded GPS points, the team developed an algorithm that filters data and maps the points onto a street. The algorithm considers previous and subsequent location measurements and different characteristics of nearby streets to determine how likely the vehicle travels on them. Then, the team segmented the time series into disjoint contiguous samples based on adjacent road segments and repeated the outlier detection and removal. For each data point, the team added features corresponding to elevation changes within the samples, weather features, such as temperature, and traffic data, such as speed ratio between actual speed and free-flow speed. 2. We have developed two forms of machine learning models that be used to understand and analyze the energy operations of a mixed vehicle transit fleet. The micro prediction model provides estimates of instantaneous energy prediction for all types of buses (diesel, hybrid, and electric). Such a model is important in evaluating the energy impacts of real-time bus operation strategies, but it is challenging due to diversified driving cycles of transit buses. The model can help the drivers understand the impact of their driving behaviors and short-term congestions. The macro prediction models estimate average energy consumption across the whole trip considering the features: distance traveled, various road-type features, elevation change, day of the week, time of day, various weather features (temperature, humidity, etc.), and traffic features (speed ratio and jam factor). 3. We have demonstrated that it is possible to transfer the machine learning models we have developed in this project to other teams and cities by using inductive transfer learning. We also showed that the performance of the macro energy prediction models can be improved using a multi-task learning approach where the learning parameters are shared between the models being developed for different vehicle types. The advantage of this approach is improved learning performance as the models can exploit common spatio-temporal and environmental characteristics. 4. Finally, we have developed trip and vehicle assignment and scheduling algorithms that use the energy prediction models and develop a trip to vehicle type (diesel, electric, hybrid) assignment for the whole operation to reduce overall emissions and cost. We have shown through simulations that the proposed algorithms can save $\$$ 48,910 in energy costs and 175 metric tons of CO 2 emission annually for CARTA.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Formation of PAHs, phenol, benzofuran, and dibenzofuran in a flow reactor from the oxidation of ethylene, toluene, and n-decane

The necessity to reveal the formation mechanism of not only polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) but also oxygenated PAHs (OPAHs) during combustion is increasing. Although many studies on PAHs have been conducted, fundamental studies investigating OPAH formation are still limited. Phenol, benzofuran, and dibenzofuran were selected as OPAHs in this study. We experimentally investigated fuel-rich oxidation in a flow reactor at atmospheric pressure, mean gas temperatures from 1050 to 1350 K, residence times from 0.2 to 1.5 s, and equivalence ratios from 3.0 to 12.0. Ethylene, toluene, and n-decane were used as fuels. Three kinds of OPAHs as well as 23 kinds of PAHs including monocyclic structures were quantitatively measured through a direct sampling using gas chromatography mass spectrometry. The results showed that concentrations of PAHs and OPAHs were strongly affected by the fuel type, with increasing concentrations in the following order: ethylene < n-decane < toluene. A chemical kinetic model for OPAH formation was developed based on a recent PAH growth model. The model showed that the predicted concentrations of OPAHs and PAHs were in reasonable agreement with the measured data in this study. Some modifications were made to the previous model based on recent literature studies and on the comparison of the simulated and measured results. The effect of the fuel type on the formation of PAHs and OPAHs was investigated through kinetic analysis using the model to discuss their reaction pathways.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Numerical Study of PAHs and Soot Emissions from Gasoline–Methanol, Gasoline–Ethanol, and Gasoline– n -Butanol Blend Surrogates

Soot formation is an intricate phenomenon, and soot propensity of a fuel is interwoven with the fuel composition, physical and chemical properties, and combustion environment. Here, the present study examines the hypothesis that in addition to the chemical composition of the fuel, the sooting nature of the fuel is closely coupled with its chemical property known as octane sensitivity (S). With this motivation, the present study numerically investigates the effects of gasoline surrogate composition and its property, octane sensitivity (S), on polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and soot emissions. Four-component toluene primary reference fuel (TPRF)–alcohol blends, comprising iso-octane, n-heptane, toluene, and one of the three different alcohols- methanol, ethanol, and n-butanol, are used as gasoline surrogates. A total of 320 TPRF–alcohol mixtures, with S in the range of 1–10, are examined under laminar counterflow diffusion flame conditions. A detailed chemical mechanism coupled with a comprehensive soot model, which includes reactions for soot inception, surface growth, PAH condensation, and oxidation, is adopted. The analysis indicates that the toluene content in the fuel mixture has a prominent effect, while the alcohol content and octane sensitivity of the fuel have a weak correlation with the PAHs and soot. Thus, it is not clear if any of these three variables, namely, toluene content in the fuel, alcohol content in the fuel, and S, are individually sufficient to characterize the PAHs and soot across various blends. For this reason, a new variable (X CHO ) based on the elemental composition of the fuel mixture is identified and it is shown that X CHO along with S of the fuel characterize soot emissions satisfactorily. Further, a reaction path analysis indicates that the efficacy of alcohols in reducing soot emissions follows the order: methanol > ethanol > n-butanol.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Variational Autoencoder Model Toward Molecular Structure Representation Learning of Fuels

Here, in this work, a Variational Autoencoder (VAE)-based data-driven modeling framework is developed with the overarching goal of enabling fuel design. The VAE model is trained on a large dataset with several chemical species to learn a compressed latent space molecular representation. Chemical structure in the form of Simplified Molecular Input Line Entry System (SMILES) string is fed as input, encoded into the VAE latent space, and decoded back to the SMILES string using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Complexities of the VAE training loss function are thoroughly examined by varying the weightage (beta (𝜷) parameter) of the latent space regularization term, thereby assessing the balance between reconstruction accuracy and validity, and focusing on both accurate molecular structure reconstruction and latent space consistency. Two different strategies for 𝜷 variation are evaluated: linear annealing and cyclic annealing. In addition, the impact of total correlation adjustment and hierarchical priors is also studied with regard to the balance between reconstruction fidelity and latent space regularization, and potential issues such as posterior collapse, over-regularization, and poor disentanglement of latent variables. Overall, the best performance of the model is achieved with hierarchical priors and incrementally increasing 𝜷 from 0 to a threshold value of 0.25 over 75 epochs. The generative VAE model can be readily coupled with Quantitative Structure–Property Relationship (QSPR) analysis to develop an integrated end-to-end framework for fuel-property prediction and molecular design of novel promising fuels.

fuel design↗

Vehicle Technologies and Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Research and Development Programs Benefits Assessment Report for 2020

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies and Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Offices (VTO and HFTO) support research and development of efficient and sustainable transportation technologies that will improve energy efficiency, minimize emissions, and enable America to use less petroleum. VTO and HFTO regularly revisit and update relevant research and development goals and areas of emphasis in response to the latest technological advancements and in alignment with current national priorities. As such, analyses of expected benefits resulting from VTO and HFTO investments and anticipated goal achievements are updated periodically and will be again for 2021 in the context of the latest national-level transportation decarbonization goals. The analysis in the present report is based on technical progress goals established in VTO and HFTO in the years immediately prior to and including 2020, and it summarizes the estimated energy and emissions benefits corresponding to achievement of those goals. The goals span research activities on batteries, electric drive technologies (EDT), combustion, lightweight materials, fuel cells, and hydrogen storage. The evaluation includes detailed analyses into the benefits of technology improvements on the U.S. light-duty (LD) vehicle fleet and separately on the U.S. medium- and heavy-duty (MDHD) vehicle fleet. This report summarizes the outcomes from each of these analyses both independently and in combination.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Modeling Air Pollutant Emissions in the Provincial Level Road Transportation Sector in Korea: A Case Study of the Zero-Emission Vehicle Subsidy

South Korea has been suffering from high PM2.5 pollution. Previous studies have contributed to establishing PM2.5 mitigation policies but have not considered provincial features and sector-interactions. In that sense, the integrated assessment model (IAM) could complement the shortcomings of previous studies. IAM, capable of analyzing PM2.5 pollution levels at the provincial level in Korea, however, has not been developed yet. Hence, this study (i) expands on IAM which can represent provincial-level spatial resolution in Korea (GCAM-Korea) with air pollutant emissions modeling which focuses on the road transportation sector and (ii) examines the zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) subsidy policy’s effects on PM2.5 mitigation using the expanded GCAM-Korea. Simulation results show that PM2.5 emissions decrease by 0.6–4.1% compared to the baseline, and the Seoul metropolitan area contributes 38–44% to the overall PM2.5 emission reductions. As the ZEVs subsidy is weighted towards the light-duty vehicle 4-wheels (LDV4W) sector, various spillover effects are found: ZEVs’ share rises intensively in the LDV4W sector leading to an increase in its service costs, and at the same time, driving bus service costs to become relatively cheaper. This, in turn, drives an increase in bus service demand and emissions discharge. Furthermore, this type of impact of the ZEVs subsidy policy does not reduce internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) in freight trucks, although diesel freight trucks are a major contributor to PM2.5 emissions and also to NOx.

Roh, Minyoung↗

SUNDIALS time integrators for exascale applications with many independent systems of ordinary differential equations

Many complex systems can be accurately modeled as a set of coupled time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs). However, solving such equations can be prohibitively expensive, easily taxing the world’s largest supercomputers. One pragmatic strategy for attacking such problems is to split the PDEs into components that can more easily be solved in isolation. This operator splitting approach is used ubiquitously across scientific domains, and in many cases leads to a set of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that need to be solved as part of a larger “outer-loop” time-stepping approach. The SUNDIALS library provides a plethora of robust time integration algorithms for solving ODEs, and the U.S. Department of Energy Exascale Computing Project (ECP) has supported its extension to applications on exascale-capable computing hardware. In this paper, we highlight some SUNDIALS capabilities and its deployment in combustion and cosmology application codes (Pele and Nyx, respectively) where operator splitting gives rise to numerous, small ODE systems that must be solved concurrently.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Molecular Dynamics Simulations of Supercritical Carbon Dioxide and Water using TraPPE and SWM4-NDP Force Fields

The increased levels of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions due to the combustion of fossil fuels and the consequential impact on global climate change have made CO 2 capture, storage, and utilization a significant area of focus for current research. In most electrochemical CO 2 applications, water is used as a proton donor due to its high availability and mobility and use as a polar solvent. Additionally, supercritical CO 2 is a promising avenue for electrochemical applications due to its unique chemical and physical properties. Consequently, understanding the interactions between water and supercritical CO 2 is of great importance for future electrochemical applications. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation is a powerful tool that enables atomistic-resolution dynamics of molecular systems, which can complement and guide future experimental investigations. This study employed atomistic MD to study the cosolubilities, codiffusivities, and structure of supercritical CO 2 and water systems, with a polarizable water model (SWM4-NDP) and a nonpolarizable CO 2 model (TraPPE). Additionally, ab initio MD simulations were used to better understand how atomistic polarizable/nonpolarizable models compare to explicit modeling of electron densities. The polarizable water model exhibited substantial improvement in water-associated properties. In conclusion, we anticipate the development of a compatible polarizable CO 2 model to yield similar improvement, providing a pathway for realizing novel high-pressure electrochemical systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

From Atom to Engine: Understanding Fundamental Effects of Structure on Combustion Using Tandem Experiment and Computation

The ability to tie structural features to a fuel candidate’s ignition properties provides a path for rational design of advantaged fuels that facilitate higher-efficiency, lower-emitting combustion in engines. The time evolution of a fuel’s radical population directly correlates with global combustion parameters, and because the generated radicals depend on the initial structure and reaction pathways of the fuel molecule, it follows that the molecular structure of a fuel has a direct impact on this cascade, and therefore salient ignition-tied fuel properties. This work aims to understand the impact of structural features in the context of global combustion properties for direct application to emerging engine technologies. Specifically, we highlight the ability to identify potential fuel blendstocks for specific engine strategies by examining and elucidating the radical cascade tied to ignition. A representative subset of alcohols possessing a variety of structural features (e.g. branching, chain length) was selected for study using a robust combination of experimental and computational methods. The approach begins with identifying short-lived radicals and likely abstraction sites upon pyrolysis in a microreactor coupled with photoionization mass spectrometry for direct detection of product species. In tandem, electronic structure calculations were performed to calculate the relevant potential energy surfaces for fuel pyrolysis as well as the subsequent O2 addition-isomerization reactions, which govern ignition behavior. Furthermore, the theoretical energetic and ro-vibrational data are used to calculate rate constants for direct ignition modeling to explore how structural effects impact NTC behavior. The microreactor data combined with electronic structure theory calculations provide a well-informed picture of the reactions relevant to ignition for each fuel in this study, as well as the most likely radicals generated under engine conditions. This thorough fundamental picture of fuel decomposition and ignition chemistry is used to correlate the observed ignition behavior to molecular structural effects.

advanced biofuels↗

Control of hybrid boosting in highly diluted internal combustion engines

A novel hybrid system enabling both flexible supercharging and limited torque assist is studied to mitigate transient response challenges of a turbocharged spark ignition engine equipped with low pressure exhaust gas recirculation. The hybrid system, called a power split supercharger (SC), is configured with a planetary gear set that splits the supercharging power between a small low-voltage electric motor and the engine crankshaft. The air path controller relies on the coordination of four actuators on the engine side and three low-level actuators on the hybrid boosting device. A decentralized control scheme is used in this work, in which the master–slave structure of the boost pressure controller decreases the turbo-lag associated with exhaust gas recirculation, while minimizing the SC operation for fuel economy. A vector reference governor is used to prevent compressor surge during engine tip-outs. In addition, the desired intake manifold pressure is modified to provide time for evacuating the exhaust gas recirculation and avoiding misfires when transitioning to low load, while the hybrid capability of the power split SC is used to recuperate the unwanted generated power. All controllers are validated on both a mean value engine model and a high-fidelity engine model. Practical challenges of implementing the vector reference governor to the highly nonlinear engine air path with pressure pulsations originating from the engine reciprocation are discussed and some solutions are proposed.

Engineering↗

Experimental and computational study of the microporous layer and hydrophobic treatment in the gas diffusion layer of a proton exchange membrane fuel cell

Enabling fuel cell operation at high current density is critical for developing competitive alternative power system to replace internal combustion engine. However, liquid water management continues to be a challenge for high humidity or high current density operation. Water condensation in the porous media hinders efficient oxygen transport to the catalyst layer, which in turns, reduces fuel cell performance. To improve water management capability, the gas diffusion layer is often impregnated with Polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) and coated with a thin microporous layer, which have shown to improve fuel cell performance, especially under wet conditions. However, the fundamental mechanism that drives the performance enhancement is still not well understood. In this work, the effects of PTFE impregnation and MPL were studied using both experimental and computational techniques. Both limiting current and polarization tests under dry and wet operating condition are conducted to study the oxygen transport resistance and fuel cell performance. In addition, a 2-D, two-phase, multi-physics PEMFC model is developed to simulate performance and gain a fundamental understanding of local water saturation and oxygen concentration. The combined results show that 5 wt% PTFE impregnation with MPL significantly enhances liquid water management, which enables higher current density operation of a fuel cell.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

THE IMPACT OF OXIDATION-INDUCED DEGRADATION ON MATERIALS USED IN HYDROGEN-FIRED MICROTURBINES

Hydrogen-fueled microturbines are being considered as part of the future green microgrid. However, the use of hydrogen as a fuel presents new challenges for selection and development of suitable high temperature materials for hydrogen combustion. The burning of hydrogen is expected to result in higher operating temperatures and higher than typically observed water vapor contents in exhaust gases than after burning natural gas. In the present work, foil specimens of various Fe- and Ni-based alloys were oxidized in air + 10vol.% H2O and air + 60vol.% H2O for up to 5,000 h at 700 °C to simulate the exhaust atmosphere of natural gas and hydrogen-fueled microturbines. The impact of alloy composition and water vapor content on the oxidation/ volatilization induced loss of wall thickness was experimentally evaluated. Enhanced external oxidation and volatilization of Cr¬2O3 and Ti-doped Cr2O3 scales was observed in 60 % H2O compared to 10% H2O. No significant impact of the higher water vapor content was observed on Al2O3 scales formed on Fe-based alumina forming alloys. Lifetime modeling was employed to predict the combined effects of water vapor content, gas flow rates, temperature and alloy composition on the oxidation-induced lifetime of the investigated materials

Romedenne, Marie↗

A physics-constrained neural ordinary differential equations approach for robust learning of stiff chemical kinetics

The high computational cost associated with solving for detailed chemistry poses a significant challenge for predictive computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of turbulent reacting flows. While deep learning techniques have been explored to develop faster surrogate models, they often fail to integrate reliably with CFD solvers. This instability arises because traditional deep learning approaches optimize for training error without ensuring compatibility with ordinary differential equation (ODE) solvers, resulting in accumulation of errors over time. Recently, neuralODE (NODE) based approaches have been shown to be a promising technique to emulate and accelerate detailed chemistry computations. Here, in the present work, we extend this NODE framework for stiff chemical kinetics by incorporating mass conservation constraints directly into the loss function during training. This ensures that the total mass as well as the individual elemental species masses are conserved in an a-posteriori manner. Proof-of-concept studies are performed with the novel physics-constrained NODE (PC-NODE) approach for homogeneous autoignition of hydrogen-air mixture over a range of composition and thermodynamic conditions. It is demonstrated that the PC-NODE framework not only improves the physical consistency of the resulting data-driven model with respect to mass conservation criteria, but also improves training efficiency. PC-NODE is shown to achieve 2–100× speedup relative to the hydrogen-air detailed chemical mechanism depending on the type of the ODE solver (implicit or explicit) used during autoregressive inference tests. Lastly, a-posteriori studies are performed wherein the trained PC-NODE model is coupled with a CFD solver. It is shown that higher accuracy is achieved with PC-NODE relative to the purely data-driven NODE approach. Moreover, PC-NODE also exhibits robustness and generalizability to unseen initial conditions from within (interpolative capability) as well as outside (extrapolative capability) the training regime.

computational combustion↗

Nanosecond Repetitively Pulsed (NRP) Plasmas: Relationship Between Induced Flow and Plasma Characteristics at Atmospheric Pressure (Final Technical Report)

The local flow fields induced by plasma discharges at atmospheric pressure can play a critical role in aerodynamic flow and combustion control and have significant implications for plasma-based technologies in medicine and environmental engineering. However, the coupling between the plasma characteristics, the geometry and the induced flow field is not well understood. The primary goal of this work is to determine the relationship between the plasma characteristics and the induced flow field for nanosecond pulsed discharges at atmospheric pressure. A comprehensive experimental investigation of plasmas produced by nanosecond high-voltage pulses in a pin-to-pin electrode configuration was conducted, employing several measurement techniques including microwave and laser Rayleigh scattering, optical emission spectroscopy, and high-speed imaging. The flow field induced by the nanosecond plasma was measured and characterized using measurements of the velocity (particle image velocimetry) and density (background oriented schlieren) with unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution. The experimental measurements were complemented by development of a one-dimensional model of the plasma discharge and a high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation of the subsequent plasma-induced flow field.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Co-Firing Switchgrass and Waste Coal in A Power Plant: A Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Evaluation for The Ohio River Valley (SWITCH) (Final Technical Report for Ohio State/FE0032204)

Abandoned coal mine lands (AMLs) represent one of the most persistent environmental challenges in the United States. Prior to the enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) in 1977, coal mining operations were not legally required to reclaim disturbed lands, leaving behind approximately 500,000 AML sites nationwide. These sites pose severe environmental and health risks, including acid mine drainage, soil and water contamination, and spontaneous combustion of waste coal piles. Millions of Americans live within one mile of these AMLs, underscoring the urgency of remediation. Traditional reclamation practices, such as planting cool-season grasses, often fail to fully restore ecological function or leverage the economic potential of these lands. This project addressed these challenges by developing integrated strategies for resource recovery, land reclamation, and sustainable energy production. This project evaluated an integrated strategy to convert this liability into an opportunity by recovering waste coal and co-firing it with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) cultivated on reclaimed or marginal AML areas in existing coal-fired power plants. Switchgrass not only provides a renewable feedstock but also aids in land reclamation and carbon sequestration. 1) Remote Sensing and Machine Learning for Waste Coal Identification Using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and supervised classification, we applied four machine learning models to detect historical waste coal piles. Random Forest achieved the highest accuracy (precision: 86%, recall: 77%). Time-series analysis revealed gradual vegetation recovery since 1986, indicating natural reclamation processes in historical sites, while active mining areas showed ongoing disturbance. This workflow enables scalable monitoring and prioritization of reclamation efforts. 2) UAS-Based Stockpile Volume Estimation To quantify recoverable waste coal, we evaluated Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) equipped with Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and multispectral sensors. Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry combined with interpolated Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) achieved strong agreement with LiDAR reference volumes (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≈147 m 3 , Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) ≈2%). Sensitivity analysis confirmed that spatial resolution significantly influences accuracy, emphasizing the need for high-resolution data for precise volume estimation. This approach offers a scalable, cost-effective, and accurate alternative to conventional ground-based surveys. 3) Switchgrass Cultivation for Bioenergy and Water Quality Improvement We assessed the hydrological and water quality impacts of converting AMLs to switchgrass production areas using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Results showed that converting 10% of the watershed area into the switchgrass production zone reduced streamflow by 3.1%, total suspended solids by 18.1%, total nitrogen by 7.6%, and total phosphorus by 6.2%, while achieving biomass yields of 8.6–9.2 metric tons per hectare. These findings highlight switchgrass as a dual-benefit strategy for land reclamation and bioenergy feedstock production. 4) Integrated Co-Firing and CCS for Carbon-Negative Power Generation We modeled co-firing scenarios using the Power Plant Flexible Model (PPFM) to evaluate plant efficiency, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Without carbon capture and storage (CCS), increasing switchgrass co-firing ratios reduced LCOE from $\$$150/MWh at 0% biomass to $\$$110/MWh at full substitution. Under CCS, costs remained higher (~$\$$250/MWh at 0% biomass) but decreased to $\$$200/MWh at 100% biomass, while enabling net-zero or carbon-negative electricity due to switchgrass sequestration benefits. Although CCS introduced efficiency penalties, pairing it with biomass co-firing offset these impacts and maximized climate benefits. Overall, optimizing co-firing ratios between 60-100%, supported by reliable logistics and storage strategies, emerged as a practical pathway to balance affordability, sustainability, and net-zero or negative GHG emissions while promoting productive reuse of AMLs.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Pathways of clean energy heating electrification programs for reducing carbon emissions in Northwest China

We report clean energy heating electrification programs provide a promising way to reduce carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion and consumption. This work studies the cost competitiveness of clean energy heating technologies under three dynamic mechanisms: investment costs, subsidy policies, and operating costs with real data. It provides key insights into the cost competitiveness of the different heating technologies deployed in different areas, as well as their sensitivity to the three dynamic mechanisms. The results show that currently, the distinct heating programs are more cost-efficient in the urban area with existing heating networks. The average payback period of all district clean energy heating programs in the urban area is 14.9 years, while that of the individual clean heating programs is 24.7 years. The individual heating programs are becoming increasingly cost-competitive with the incentive mechanisms, especially the electricity pricing mechanisms. Moreover, individual heating technologies present remarkable advantages on flexibility and sustainability in the long run. According to the technology diffusion model proposed in this paper, the individual clean heating programs will occupy more than 50% of the market share in 2050 under the comprehensive effect of CAPEX, government subsidies, and OPEX. The real-world results and analysis render references to shape the pathway of clean energy heating electrification in Northwest China and other regions with a similar situation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗