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Evaluating Process Effectiveness to Reduce Risk

It is well documented that government agencies do not have the same incentive as the private sector to focus on process effectiveness and continual improvement of those processes. It is also well documented whenever government agencies fail to deliver efficient, effective, consistent, and fair services to the citizens. In spite of the various "reinventing government" and "effectiveness initiatives" of the past decades, and in spite of the efforts on the part of many agencies to improve, government in general still lags behind industry in creating a culture of effective processes and systems. While the tragic events that unfolded recently in Flint, Michigan, teach us that running government "like a business" does not always take the needs of the citizenry into account, there are many lessons and techniques from the private sector that government agencies can use to improve. The incentive to improve, while mandated by various administrations1, needs to come from within the workforce, in order to effectively take root. The best, most effective incentive is to reduce, control or eliminate risk. Government agencies face some of the same risks as the private sector, while some are unique. While ISO 310002 has been around since 2009, risk has taken on increased visibility within the private sector with the advent of the emphasis on risk-based thinking in ISO 9001:20153. The relationship between risk-based thinking and effective processes is simple and direct. Those processes that are well thought out and standardized (i.e. Plan-Do-Check-Act), will have taken into account the applicable policy, statutory, regulatory, safety, quality and technical parameters, which may not occur to someone performing the process with minimal experience or training; and thus protect the employees, the public and the agency from statutory and regulatory violations; delay in providing services; non-delivery of services; harm to public or employee safety and health; cost overruns; breaches in security; loss of confidence in government; failure of publicly funded projects; damage to the environment; ethics violations, and the list goes on; with local, national and even international consequences. The Plan-Do-Check-Act process, also known as the "process approach" can be used at any time to establish and standardize a process, and it can also be used to check periodically for "process creep" (i.e., informal, unauthorized changes that have occurred over time), any necessary updates and improvements. While ISO 9001 compliance is not mandated for all government agencies, if interpreted correctly, it can be useful in establishing a framework and implementing effective management systems and processes.4 Another method that can be used to evaluate effectiveness is the scorecard definitions in Mallory's Process Management Standard5 as a basis for evaluating work on the process level on effective, and continuously improved and improving processes. With processes on the lower end of the scale, agencies are vulnerable to a great many risks, with employees and managers making up many of the rules as they go, leading to the above listed negative results. Without clear guidance for nominal operations, off-nominal situations can, and do, increase the likelihood of chaos. In an increasingly technical environment, with inter-agency communication and collaboration becoming the norm, agencies need to come to grips with the fact that processes can become rapidly outdated, and that the technical community should take on an increased role in the maturation of the agency's processes. Industry has long known that effective processes are also efficient, and process improvement methods such as Kaizen, Lean, Six Sigma, 5S, and mistake proofing lead to increased productivity, improved quality, and decreased cost. Again, government agencies have different concerns, but inefficiencies and mistakes can have dire and wide reaching consequences for the public that they serve. While no one goes to work planning to cause harm, it is up to agencies to establish upper level systems, which make establishment and compliance with processes possible. Again, Mallory provides us with a Systems Management Standard6, similar to the Process Management Standard, with a scale of 0-5 for systems effectiveness and maturity. Deming determined that "eighty-five percent of the reasons for failure are deficiencies in the systems and process rather than the employee. The role of management is to change the process rather than badgering individual employees to do better." 7 It is not just the working level employees who need effective processes, but the mid-and upper level managers as well. A disciplined management culture sets the tone for the employees, aids both routine and off-nominal decision-making, and incorporates risk -based thinking into the systems and processes as a matter of normal activity. Figure 1, illustrates the relationship between ineffective and effective processes and risk, through the use of the "stoplight" colors that are commonly used to show serious situations (red), situations which may be improving or deteriorating depending on trends (yellow), and situations that are under control and continuously improved (green).

Shepherd, Christena C.↗

Wavelet Analysis of Satellite Images for Coastal Watch

The two-dimensional wavelet transform is a very efficient bandpass filter, which can be used to separate various scales of processes and show their relative phase/location. In this paper, algorithms and techniques for automated detection and tracking of mesoscale features from satellite imagery employing wavelet analysis are developed. The wavelet transform has been applied to satellite images, such as those from synthetic aperture radar (SAR), advanced very-high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR), and coastal zone color scanner (CZCS) for feature extraction. The evolution of mesoscale features such as oil slicks, fronts, eddies, and ship wakes can be tracked by the wavelet analysis using satellite data from repeating paths. Several examples of the wavelet analysis applied to various satellite Images demonstrate the feasibility of this technique for coastal monitoring.

Liu, Antony K.↗

Photochemistry of NH3, CH4 and PH3 - Possible applications to the Jovian planets

It is found that the photolysis of NH4 at 185 nm in the presence of a two-fold excess of CH4 results in the loss of about 0.25 mole of CH4 per mole of NH3 decomposed. The loss is shown to arise from the abstraction of hydrogen atoms from CH4 by photolytically generated hot hydrogen atoms. It is concluded that NH3 photolysis in the H2-abundant atmosphere of Jupiter is not responsible for the presence of the carbon compounds observed there, such as ethane, acetylene, and hydrogen cyanide, but may have had a role in the early atmosphere of Titan. Also, it is found that the photolysis of PH3 with a 206 nm light source gives P2H4, which in turn is converted to a red-brown solid. The course of the photolysis is not changed appreciably when the temperature is lowered to 157 K except that the concentration of P2H4 increases, while the presence of H2 has no effect on the P2H4 yield. Photolysis of 9:1 NH3:PH3 is found to give a rate of decomposition of PH3 that is comparable with that observed by the direct photolysis of PH3 and comparable amounts of the red-brown solid and P2H4 are observed. In addition, the implications of these results for the structures of the compounds responsible for the wide array of colors observed in the atmosphere of Jupiter are examined.

Ferris, J. P.↗

An Introduction to Radiation Damage in Minerals and Ceramics [Slides]

Radiation effects in minerals and ceramics are quite distinct from effects observed in metals. This is largely due to interactions between radiation and the electronic structure of insulating materials that are unique compared to metallic conductors. Most notably, insulators exhibit property changes when energetic particles lose energy to electrons in the solid, whereas metals are unaffected by electronic energy losses. In addition, displacive radiation damage effects (atoms being knocked off their lattice sites by energetic particles) are much more complex in insulators, due to the complexities of their crystal structures (multiple cation and anion sublattices). In this presentation, we will focus on the atomistic mechanisms responsible for radiation damage in minerals and ceramics, when energetic particles lose energy while penetrating a solid. We will consider several examples, including (i) irradiation induced color center formation in gemstones; (ii) latent defects in alkali halides (relevance to thermoluminescent detectors); (iii) radioactive decay-induced amorphization of natural minerals; and (iv) extended defect formation and phase stability in complex oxides.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Integration of RGB "Dust" Imagery to Operations at the Albuquerque Forecast Office

The NASA/Short‐term Prediction, Research, and Transition (SPoRT) Program has been providing unique Red‐Green‐Blue (RGB) composite imagery to its operational partners since 2005. In the early years of activity these RGB products were related to a True Color RGB, showing what one's own eyes would see if looking down at earth from space, as well as a Snow‐Cloud RGB (i.e. False Color), separating clouds from snow on the ground. More recently SPoRT has used the EUMETSAT Best Practices standards for RGB composites to transition a wide array of imagery for multiple uses. A "Dust" RGB product has had particular use at the Albuquerque, New Mexico WFO. Several cases have occurred where users were able to isolate dust plume locations for mesoscale and microscale events during day and night time conditions. In addition the "Dust" RGB can be used for more than just detection of dust as it is sensitive to the changes in density due to atmospheric moisture content. Hence low‐level dry boundaries can often be discriminated. This type of imagery is a large change from the single channel imagery typically used by operational forecast staff and hence, can be a challenge to interpret. This presentation aims to discuss the integration of such new imagery into operational use as well as the benefits assessed by the Albuquerque WFO over several documented events.

Fuell, Kevin↗

Integration of RGB "Dust" Imagery to Operations at the Albuqueque Forecast Office

The NASA/Short‐term Prediction, Research, and Transition (SPoRT) Program has been providing unique Red‐Green‐Blue (RGB) composite imagery to its operational partners since 2005. In the early years of activity these RGB products were related to a True Color RGB, showing what one's own eyes would see if looking down at earth from space, as well as a Snow‐Cloud RGB (i.e. False Color), separating clouds from snow on the ground. More recently SPoRT has used the EUMETSAT Best Practices standards for RGB composites to transition a wide array of imagery for multiple uses. A "Dust" RGB product has had particular use at the Albuquerque, New Mexico WFO. Several cases have occurred where users were able to isolate dust plume locations for mesoscale and microscale events during day and night time conditions. In addition the "Dust" RGB can be used for more than just detection of dust as it is sensitive to the changes in density due to atmospheric moisture content. Hence low‐level dry boundaries can often be discriminated. This type of imagery is a large change from the single channel imagery typically used by operational forecast staff and hence, can be a challenge to interpret. This presentation aims to discuss the integration of such new imagery into operational use as well as the benefits assessed by the Albuquerque WFO over several documented events.

Fuell, Kevin↗

Integration of Product, Package, Process, and Environment: A Food System Optimization

The food systems slated for future NASA missions must meet crew nutritional needs, be acceptable for consumption, and use resources efficiently. Although the current food system of prepackaged, moderately stabilized food items works well for International Space Station (ISS) missions, many of the current space menu items do not maintain acceptability and/or nutritive value beyond 2 years. Longer space missions require that the food system can sustain the crew for 3 to 5 years without replenishment. The task "Integration of Product, Package, Process, and Environment: A Food System Optimization" has the objective of optimizing food-product shelf life for the space-food system through product recipe adjustments, new packaging and processing technologies, and modified storage conditions. Two emergent food processing technologies were examined to identify a pathway to stable, wet-pack foods without the detrimental color and texture effects. Both microwave-assisted thermal sterilization (MATS) and pressure-assisted thermal stabilization (PATS) were evaluated against traditional retort processing to determine if lower heat inputs during processing would produce a product with higher micronutrient quality and longer shelf life. While MATS products did have brighter color and better texture initially, the advantages were not sustained. The non-metallized packaging film used in the process likely provided inadequate oxygen barrier. No difference in vitamin stability was evident between MATS and retort processed foods. Similarly, fruit products produced using PATS showed improved color and texture through 3 years of storage compared to retort fruit, but the vitamin stability was not improved. The final processing study involved freeze drying. Five processing factors were tested in factorial design to assess potential impact of each to the quality of freeze-dried food, including the integrity of the microstructure. The initial freezing rate and primary freeze drying temperature and pressure were linked to final product quality in freeze-dried corn, indicating processing modifications that could lead to improved product shelf life. Storage temperatures and packaging systems were also assessed for the impact to food quality. Reduced temperature storage had inconclusive impact to the progression of rancidity in butter cookies. Frozen storage was detrimental to fruit and vegetable textural attributes but refrigerated storage helped to sustain color and organoleptic ratings for plant-based foods. With regard to packaging systems, the metallized film overwrap significantly decreased the progression of the rancidity of butter cookies as compared to the highest barrier non-metallized film. The inclusion of oxygen scavengers resulted in noticeable moisture gains in butter cookies over time, independent of packaging film systems. Neither emergent processing technology nor the freeze dry optimization resulted in compelling quality differences from current space food provisions such that a five-year shelf life is likely with these processing changes alone. Using a combination of refrigeration and PATS processing is expected to result in organoleptically-acceptable fruit quality for most fruits through five years. The vitamin degradation will be aided somewhat by the cold temperatures but, given the labile nature of vitamin C, a more stable fortification method, such as encapsulation, should also be investigated to ensure vitamin delivery throughout the product life. Similarly, significant improvement to the packaging film used in the MATS processing, optimization of formulation for dielectric properties, vitamin fortification, and reduced temperature storage should be investigated as a hurdle approach to reach a five year shelf life in wet-pack entrees and soups. Baked goods and other environmentally-sensitive spaceflight foods will require an almost impenetrable barrier to protect the foods from oxygen and moisture ingress but scavengers and reduced storage temperature did not improve baked good shelf life and are not recommended at this time for these foods.

Cooper, Maya R.↗

Quantitative Characterization of Impacts of Coupled Geomechanics and Flow on Safe and Permanent Geological Storage of CO 2 in Fractured Aquifers

This is the final scientific report for the award DE-FE0023305, entitled “Quantitative Characterization of Impacts of Coupled Geomechanics and Flow on Safe and Permanent Geological Storage of CO 2 in Fractured Aquifers.” The work has been divided into six tasks. In Task 2, we characterized rock properties, which are important when developing a quantitative approach for understanding and predicting geomechanical effects on large-scale CO 2 injection and long-term storage in the subsurface. Rock properties of interest for this characterization include porosity, permeability, elastic constants, strength, and heat capacity. We measured rock properties for three different rock types: concrete, sandstone and shale. These properties were obtained from the acoustic measurement, permeability and porosity measurement, Brazilian test, the uniaxial compressive test, and heat capacity measurement. Then, using the Brazilian technique to fracture samples, we measured their permeability under brine injection for varying effective stresses, followed by similar measurements of permeability under sc-CO 2 injection. Permeability to brine and sc-CO 2 decreased as the effective stress increased. The apparent permeability to sc-CO 2 was an order of magnitude less than that for brine, a consequence of CO 2 being the non-wetting fluid. In Task 3, we developed understandings and correlations for CO 2 injection pressure induced fracturing. We initially fractured four eight inch cubes of concrete with brine to establish a standard test procedure. Then, additional concrete samples were fractured using brine. Confining stresses were exerted on the samples and brine was injected at a constant rate into a borehole that was previously drilled into the concrete cube. The borehole pressure was measured and fracture initiation was identified as a peak in the pressure profile. That was followed by fracture propagation, which was identified as a plateau in the pressure profile, and finally the fracture reached the sample surface. The sample surfaces were photographed before and after fracturing, which enabled determination of where the fracture reached the sample surface. Afterwards, aqueous food dye solution was injected into the fractured concrete samples to color the fracture planes. The borehole was filled with food dye solution in advance, a gas pulse was transmitted to the borehole, and the borehole was then shut in to allow the food dye to be driven into existing fractures. Then, the concrete samples were broken down by high-pressure gas injection to reveal the geometry and morphology of the hydraulic fractures. In addition, acoustic measurements were conducted on multiple locations on each face of the concrete samples before and after injection for comparison. This comparison was used to confirm changes in the internal structure of the concrete sample, namely the formation of fractures. There were six concrete samples fractured with brine. Afterwards, concrete samples were fracture using sc-CO 2 . The main change in experimental procedure was the inclusion of temperature control, since in the field, we mostly encounter temperature and pressure conditions above the supercritical point of CO 2 . The concrete samples were pre-heated in an oven to elevate their temperature, and thermal tape was used to heat the CO 2 to a temperature above its supercritical temperature. Two concrete samples were fractured using liquid CO 2 , four concrete samples were fractured using gaseous CO 2 , and twenty two concrete samples were fractured using sc-CO 2 . For the concrete samples fractured using sc-CO 2 , three had pre-existing hydraulic fractures on the surface near the wellbore, and two were water saturated (as opposed to containing only air). Two concrete samples were composite samples, with a high permeability ball in the center, in order to represent CO 2 injection into a high permeability zone surrounded by a low permeability sealing formation. Later, we fractured five shale samples, obtained from the Niobrara shale outcrop, with sc-CO 2 . The injection rate was constant, confining stresses were applied, the shale samples were pre-heated in an oven to the desired temperature, and the sample was then fractured. An analysis of the failure type was done for many of the concrete samples, based on the predicted break down pressure for tensile and shear failure, and it was found that most samples fractured due to shear failure. Also, the presence of induced fractures has little to no effect on the fracture initiation pressure, but significantly changes the fracture morphology. The CO 2 fracturing in water saturated samples behaved much similar to brine induced fracturing. There was a significant difference of breakdown pressure for injection of CO 2 and brine, where the breakdown pressure for CO 2 induced fracturing is generally around the minimum horizontal stress and that for brine is much higher. Finally, the fracture orientation for most samples with large confining stress differential was perpendicular to the minimum horizontal stress. When the stress differential, especially the difference between the two directions with the smallest stresses was small, the fracture orientation was determined not only by the minimum stress direction, but also the magnitude of the confining stress, the tensile strength of the rock, and the breakdown pressure. In Task 4, we modified our coupled flow-geomechanical models to model fracture growth and propagation in storage formations and caprocks. These flow-geomechanical models are TOUGH2-CSM and TOUGH2-FLAC. The TOUGH2-CSM fluid and heat flow formulation is based on the TOUGH2 formulation of mass and energy conservation equations that govern fluid and heat flow in general multiphase, multicomponent, multi-porosity systems. The TOUGH2-CSM simplified geomechanical formulation is based on the linear theory of elasticity applied to multi-porosity non-isothermal (thermo-multi-poroelastic) media. We previously derived, from the fundamental relations of the linear theory of elasticity, an equation relating mean stress, pore pressures, temperatures, and body force (the Mean Stress equation) that we added to the TOUGH2-CSM fluid and heat flow equations. We extended the TOUGH2-CSM simplified geomechanical formulation to calculate the entire stress tensor by deriving equations for stress tensor components from derivatives of the Cartesian thermo-multi-poroelastic Navier equation components. In addition, we derived equations for stress tensor components in rz-coordinates. We solved these geomechanical equations using the integral finite difference method. This method utilizes momentum fluxes obtained by “factoring” a divergence operator out of each geomechanical equation. In Task 5, we did a literature survey to determine suitable correlations for fracture initiation, growth, and propagation. After surveying numerous papers, we modified TOUGH2-CSM to model stress dependent fracture initiation and growth using the Mohr-Coulomb criterion for shear failure in faults and caprock and the condition of negative minimum effective stress for tensile failure. Tensile failure results in a fracture whose width depends on the difference between fracture pressure and minimum stress and whose propagation is based on the difference between the stress intensity factor at the fracture tip and the rock toughness. The TOUGH-FLAC model is based on the FLAC3D ubiquitous joint model, extended for the modeling of permeability changes induced by changes in effective normal stress across fractures as well permeability changes caused by shearing along fractures. In Task 6, we validated our coupled flow-geomechanical models using analytical solutions and problems from the literature. We validated the TOUGH2-CSM modifications using analytical solutions to the displacement from a uniform load on a semi-infinite elastic medium and the two-dimensional Mandel-Cryer effect. Those were followed by a sample problem to test our stress tensor calculations, which was for injection into a single-phase reservoir with constant properties. Comparisons of our simulator to published results were done on for the depletion of a single-phase reservoir with stress dependent porosity, two examples from the In Salah gas project, an axisymmetric baserock–reservoir–caprock system with a normal faulting stress regime that had thermally induced shear stresses, simulations of CO 2 leakage through caprock in a two-dimensional reservoir in Cartesian coordinates, and predictions of caprock failure from CO 2 injection into an axisymmetric reservoir. Finally, we simulated CO 2 injection pressure-induced fracturing from one of our laboratory studies, Sample 39, and obtained a fracture profile. We also validated the TOUGH2-FLAC model for fluid driven fracture growth against solutions based on the KGD model and a case with an inclined fracture that was loaded from the boundaries to achieve wing-crack propagation. The strain softening tensile behavior and softening of modulus considering a simple damage approach was verified by a simulation representing hydraulic fracturing stress measurement around a vertical well. Finally, the model was validated against deep fracture zone opening and surface uplift at In Salah with inverses analysis used to improve the match of simulation with field data. In Task 7, we developed a scheme based on inverse modeling that can be used to identify caprock leakage. Injection of fluid into a reservoir results in a time varying pressure profile that depends on the properties of the rock and the fluid. The presence of significant caprock leakage would effect this pressure profile and we used inverse modeling, namely the Levenberg-Marquardt method, to determine the leakage location from the pressure profile. A two-dimensional and a three-dimensional example based on published data were presented. The published simulation was run and its results were considered as “field” data. In the two-dimensional example, a simulation of CO 2 injection into a two-dimensional aquifer-caprock system, the caprock had a vertical fault through which leakage could occur. The location of this leakage was obtained from our inverse modeling scheme. In the three-dimensional example, the simulation domain had four geological layers, one of which was the injection zone that contained a horizontal injection well. We simulated fractures as high permeability gridblocks, introduced a fracture that spanned the caprock depth, and ran a simulation to obtain “field” data. Then, using our inverse modeling scheme, we obtained the location of that fracture.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Yellowstone Ecological Forecasting: Assessing Change in Aspen Extent in Northern Yellowstone National Park

The removal and reintroduction of the gray wolf (Canis lupus) in Yellowstone National Park have shaped the ecological composition of this distinct landscape, representing a textbook example of trophic dynamics. With particular importance to conservation science, researchers have studied the trophic cascades between wolves and species such as elk (Cervus canadensis) and quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides). In conjunction with the National Park Service, Yellowstone National Park, Utah State University, and the University of Wisconsin–Stevens Point, this project utilized satellite remote sensing to investigate the long-term trends in aspen extent. Through random forest modeling and phenological approaches, Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM; years 1986–2011) and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI; years 2017–2019) datasets were used to derive color composites, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), and Tasseled Cap Indices (Brightness, Greenness, Wetness). The International Space System (ISS) Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) provided canopy height data. The team consolidated results into maps and time-series which provide an in-depth depiction of aspen stand extent. The National Park Service will use these end products to assist in its management practices and inform wildlife restoration decisions within and beyond Yellowstone National Park.

Kyle Steen↗

The NASA Meter Class Autonomous Telescope: Ascension Island

The Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (MCAT) is the newest optical sensor dedicated to NASA s mission to characterize the space debris environment. It is the successor to a series of optical telescopes developed and operated by the JSC Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) to monitor and assess the debris environment in (1) Low Earth Orbit (LEO), (2) Medium Earth Orbit (MEO), and (3) Geosynchronous Orbit (GEO), with emphasis on LEO and GEO altitudes. A joint NASA-Air Force Research Labs project, MCAT is a 1.3m optical telescope dedicated to debris research. Its optical path and sensor yield a large survey fence at the cutting edge of current detector performance. It has four primary operational observing modes, two of which were not computationally feasible a decade ago. Operations are supported by a sophisticated software suite that monitors clouds and weather conditions, and controls everything from data collection to dome rotation to processing tens of GB of imagery data nightly. With fainter detection limits, precision detection, acquisition and tracking of targets, multi-color photometry, precision astrometry, automated reacquisition capability, and the ability to process all data at the acquisition rate, MCAT is capable of producing and processing a volume and quality of data far in excess of any current (or prior) ODPO operations. This means higher fidelity population inputs and eliminating the multi-year backlog from acquisition-to-product typical of optical campaigns. All of this is possible given a suitable observing location. Originally planned for the island of Legan, part of the Kwajalein Atoll Islands, recent developments have led to a change in venue. Specifically, the Ground-based Electro-Optical Deep Space Surveillance, or GEODSS, System of telescopes is the United States major tracking system for deep space. This network consists of telescopes in Maui, Hawaii; Diego Garcia (Indian Ocean), and Socorro, New Mexico. A fourth optical telescope, though smaller in size, has been operating in conjunction with this effort until recently in M.ron, Spain. With the M.ron site closing, a significant gap in longitude exists between the New Mexico and Diego Garcia sites. This longitudinal gap is well covered by placing a telescope on Ascension Island (7degrees 58'20" S, 14degrees 24'4"W), in the Atlantic Ocean. Ascension Island offers the benefits of both location and weather. The near equatorial location affords the opportunity to access under-sampled low-inclination orbits and new GEO longitudes, while simultaneously filling in the GEODSS longitudinal gap. Ascension Island is a volcanic, desert island, receiving only 7" of rain per year on average. With consistent trade winds blowing from the SSE direction off Africa, the combination of an island location with consistent winds will create the smooth laminar flow sought after by all astronomical sites, which creates stable atmospheric ('seeing') conditions. Finally, this low population island has minimal lighting, resulting in very dark skies, ideal for an observatory.

Lederer, S. M.↗

Recent Changes in Cyanobacteria Algal Bloom Magnitude in Large Lakes Across the Contiguous United States

Cyanobacterial blooms in inland lakes produce large quantities of biomass that impact drinking water systems, recreation, and tourism and may produce toxins that can adversely affect public health. This study analyzed nine years of satellite-derived bloom records and compared how the bloom magnitude has changed from 2008-2011 to 2016-2020 in 1881 of the largest lakes across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We determined bloom magnitude each year as the spatio-temporal mean cyanobacteria biomass from May to October and in concentrations of chlorophyll-a. We found that bloom magnitude decreased in 465 (25%) lakes in the 2016-2020 23 period. Conversely, there was an increase in bloom magnitude in only 81 lakes (4%). Bloom magnitude either didn’t change, or the observed change was in the uncertainty range in the majority of the lakes (n=1335, 71%). Above-normal wetness and normal or below-normal maximum temperature over the warm season may have caused the decrease in bloom magnitude in the eastern part of the CONUS in recent years. On the other hand, a hotter and dryer warm season in the western CONUS may have created an environment for increased algal biomass. While more lakes saw a decrease in bloom magnitude, the pattern was not monotonic over the CONUS. The variations in temporal changes in bloom magnitude within and across climatic regions depend on the interactions between land use land cover (LULC) and physical factors such as temperature and precipitation. Despite expectations suggested by recent global studies, bloom magnitude has not increased in larger US lakes over this time period.

remote sensing↗

Videogrammetry Using Projected Circular Targets: Proof-of-Concept Test

Videogrammetry is the science of calculating 3D object coordinates as a function of time from image sequences. It expands the method of photogrammetry to multiple time steps enabling the object to be characterized dynamically. Photogrammetry achieves the greatest accuracy with high contrast, solid-colored, circular targets. The high contrast is most often effected using retro-reflective targets attached to the measurement article. Knowledge of the location of each target allows those points to be tracked in a sequence of images, thus yielding dynamic characterization of the overall object. For ultra-lightweight and inflatable gossamer structures (e.g. solar sails, inflatable antennae, sun shields, etc.) where it may be desirable to avoid physically attaching retro-targets, a high-density grid of projected circular targets - called dot projection - is a viable alternative. Over time the object changes shape or position independently of the dots. Dynamic behavior, such as deployment or vibration, can be characterized by tracking the overall 3D shape of the object instead of tracking specific object points. To develop this method, an oscillating rigid object was measured using both retroreflective targets and dot projection. This paper details these tests, compares the results, and discusses the overall accuracy of dot projection videogrammetry.

Pappa, Richard S.↗

Videogrammetry Using Projected Circular Targets: Proof-of-Concept Test

Videogrammetry is the science of calculating 3D object coordinates as a function of time from image sequences. It expands the method of photogrammetry to multiple time steps enabling the object to be characterized dynamically. Photogrammetry achieves the greatest accuracy with high contrast, solid-colored circular targets. The high contrast is most often effected using retro-reflective targets attached to the measurement article. Knowledge of the location of each target allows those points to be tracked in a sequence of images, thus yielding dynamic characterization of the overall object. For ultra-lightweight and inflatable gossamer structures (e.g. solar sails, inflatable antennae, sun shields, etc.) where it may be desirable to avoid physically attaching retro-targets, a high-density grid of projected circular targets - called dot projection - is a viable alternative. Over time the object changes shape or position independently of the dots. Dynamic behavior, such as deployment or vibration, can be characterized by tracking the overall 3D shape of the object instead of tracking specific object points. To develop this method, an oscillating rigid object was measured using both retro- reflective targets and dot projection. This paper details these tests, compares the results, and discusses the overall accuracy of dot projection videogrammetry.

Black, Jonathan T.↗

River streamflow, remotely-sensed water quality, and benthic composition of previously undescribed nearshore coral reefs in northern Puerto Rico

Land-based sediment stress represents a threat to many coral reefs in Puerto Rico primarily as a result of unrestricted land cover/land use changes and poor best management practices. The effects of such stresses have been documented along most coasts around the island. However, little attention has been paid to reefs located on the north coast, and very little is known about their composition and current state. Here, we present a study characterizing riverine inputs, water quality conditions, and benthic composition of two previously undescribed coral reefs (Tómbolo and Machuca reefs) located just eastward of the Río Grande de Manatí outlet in north-central Puerto Rico. This study utilizes a time series of remotely sensed ocean color products (diffuse vertical attenuation coefficient at 490 nm [Kd490] and chlorophyll-a concentration [Chl-a] estimated with data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite [VIIRS]) to characterize water quality in this coastal region. In general, the months with relatively high mean daily river streamflow also coincide with months having the highest proportion of eastward wave direction, which can promote the eastward influence of river waters towards the two coral reefs sites. Kd490 and Chl-a showed a higher riverine influence closer to the watershed outlet. Kd490 and Chl-a monthly peaks also coincide with river streamflow highs, particularly at those pixels closer to shore. Tómbolo Reef, located farther eastward of the river outlet, shows a well-developed primary reef framework mainly composed of threatened reef-building species (Acropora palmata, Pseudodiploria) and high coral cover (19-51%). The benthos of Machuca Reef, located closer to the river outlet, is dominated by macroalgae with a significantly lower coral cover (0.2-2.7%) mainly composed of “weedy” coral species (Porites astroides, and S. radians). Cover of major benthic components correlates with distance from the river outlet, and with gradients in Kd490 and Chl-a, with higher coral cover and lower macroalgal cover farther from the river outlet. Coral cover at Tómbolo Reef is higher than what has been reported for similar sites around Puerto Rico and other Caribbean islands showing its ecological importance and, as up until now, an unrecognized potential refuge of reef-building threatened coral species.

benthic cover↗

Application of ERTS-1 imagery to detecting and mapping modern erosion features, and to monitoring erosional changes, in southern Arizona

The author has identified the following significant results. The red MSS band 5 gives the sharpest definition of modern arroyos. On the best images, modern arroy0s can be distinguished as narrow as 150 to 200 feet in reaches where their contrast with adjacent areas is only moderate, and as narrow as 60 to 75 feet where their contrast is high. Both the red and infrared bands show differences is soils and vegetation. In the late fall and winter imagery, band 7 generally is the most useful for mapping the areas of the more erodible soils. A map at 1:1,000,000 scale has been prepared that shows all the arroyos within the 17,000 square mile study area that have been identified from ERTS-1 images. Also, from U-2 color infrared airphotos, a 1:125,000 scale map has been made of a 50 mile reach along San Simon Wash, in southeastern Arizona. This map shows not only the arroyo channels and narrow flood plains that have developed since 1890, but also areas within a few miles of the wash that are severely guilled, severely sheet-eroded, and moderately sheet-eroded. Two important effects of the third largest recorded flood of the upper Gila River also have been determined from the ERTS-1 images. The inundated area is best displayed on band 7, and the areas of severe sand/gravel erosion/deposition show best on band 5.

Morrison, R. B.↗

Organic chemistry on Titan

Observations of nonequilibrium phenomena on the Saturn satellite Titan indicate the occurrence of organic chemical evolution. Greenhouse and thermal inversion models of Titan's atmosphere provide environmental constraints within which various pathways for organic chemical synthesis are assessed. Experimental results and theoretical modeling studies suggest that the organic chemistry of the satellite may be dominated by two atmospheric processes: energetic-particle bombardment and photochemistry. Reactions initiated in various levels of the atmosphere by cosmic ray, Saturn wind, and solar wind particle bombardment of a CH4 - N2 atmospheric mixture can account for the C2-hydrocarbons, the UV-visible-absorbing stratospheric haze, and the reddish color of the satellite. Photochemical reactions of CH4 can also account for the presence of C2-hydrocarbons. In the lower Titan atmosphere, photochemical processes will be important if surface temperatures are sufficiently high for gaseous NH3 to exist. Hot H-atom reactions initiated by photo-dissociation of NH3 can couple the chemical reactions of NH3 and CH4 and produce organic matter.

Chang, S.↗

Epitaxial strain tuning of Er 3+ in ferroelectric thin films

Er 3+ color centers are promising candidates for quantum science and technology due to their long electron and nuclear spin coherence times, as well as their desirable emission wavelength. By selecting host materials with suitable, controllable properties, we introduce new parameters that can be used to tailor the Er 3+ emission spectrum. PbTiO 3 is a well-studied ferroelectric material with known methods of engineering different domain configurations through epitaxial strain. By distorting the structure of Er 3+ -doped PbTiO 3 thin films, we can manipulate the crystal fields around the Er 3+ dopant. This is resolved through changes in the Er 3+ resonant fluorescence spectra, tying the optical properties of the defect directly to the domain configurations of the ferroelectic matrix. Additionally, we are able to resolve a second set of peaks for films with in-plane ferroelectric polarization. We hypothesize these results to be due to either the Er 3+ substituting different sites of the PbTiO 3 crystal, differences in charges between the Er 3+ dopant and the original substituent ion, or selection rules. Systematically studying the relationship between the Er 3+ emission and the epitaxial strain of the ferroelectric matrix lays the pathway for future optical studies of spin manipulation by altering ferroelectric order parameters.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Exploring origins for correlations between flow harmonics and transverse momentum in small collision systems

High statistics data sets from experiments at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) and the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) with small and large collision species have enabled a wealth of new flow measurements, including the event-by-event correlation between observables. One exciting such observable $ρ(v^2_n, [p_T])$ gauges the correlation between the mean transverse momentum of particles in an event and the various flow coefficients (v n ) in the same event [P. Bozek, Phys. Rev. C 93, 044908 (2016)]. Recently it has been proposed that very low multiplicity events may be sensitive to initial-state glasma correlations [G. Giacalone, B. Schenke, and C. Shen, Phys. Rev. Lett. 125, 192301 (2020)] rather than flow-related dynamics. We find utilizing the ip-jazma framework that the color domain explanation for the glasma results are incomplete. We then explore predictions from pythia8, and the version for including nuclear collisions called pythia-angantyr, which have only nonflow correlations, and from the ampt model which has both nonflow and flow-type correlations. We find that pythia-angantyr has nonflow contributions to $ρ(v^2_n, [p_T])$ in p + O, p + Pb, and O + O collisions that are positive at low multiplicity and comparable to the glasma correlations. It is striking that in pythia8 in p + p collisions there is actually a sign change from positive to negative $ρ(v^2_n, [p_T])$ as a function of multiplicity. The ampt results match the experimental data general trends in Pb+Pb collisions at the LHC, except at low multiplicity where ampt has the opposite sign. In p + Pb collisions, ampt has the opposite sign from experimental data and we explore this within the context of parton geometry. Predictions for p + O, O + O, and Xe + Xe are also presented.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗