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Widespread gas hydrate instability on the upper U.S. Beaufort margin

Abstract The most climate‐sensitive methane hydrate deposits occur on upper continental slopes at depths close to the minimum pressure and maximum temperature for gas hydrate stability. At these water depths, small perturbations in intermediate ocean water temperatures can lead to gas hydrate dissociation. The Arctic Ocean has experienced more dramatic warming than lower latitudes, but observational data have not been used to study the interplay between upper slope gas hydrates and warming ocean waters. Here we use (a) legacy seismic data that constrain upper slope gas hydrate distributions on the U.S. Beaufort Sea margin, (b) Alaskan North Slope borehole data and offshore thermal gradients determined from gas hydrate stability zone thickness to infer regional heat flow, and (c) 1088 direct measurements to characterize multidecadal intermediate ocean warming in the U.S. Beaufort Sea. Combining these data with a three‐dimensional thermal model shows that the observed gas hydrate stability zone is too deep by 100 to 250 m. The disparity can be partially attributed to several processes, but the most important is the reequilibration (thinning) of gas hydrates in response to significant (~0.5°C at 2σ certainty) warming of intermediate ocean temperatures over 39 years in a depth range that brackets the upper slope extent of the gas hydrate stability zone. Even in the absence of additional ocean warming, 0.44 to 2.2 Gt of methane could be released from reequilibrating gas hydrates into the sediments underlying an area of ~5–7.5 × 10 3 km 2 on the U.S. Beaufort Sea upper slope during the next century.

Phrampus, Benjamin J.↗

Advancing reliability assessments of photovoltaic modules and materials using combined-accelerated stress testing

Previously undiscovered failure modes in photovoltaic (PV) modules continue to emerge in field installations despite passing protocols for design qualification and quality assurance. Failure to detect these modes prior to widespread use could be attributed to the limitations of present-day standard accelerated stress tests (ASTs), which are primarily designed to identify known degradation or failure modes at the time of development by applying simultaneous or sequential stress factors (usually two at most). Here, we introduce an accelerated testing method known as the combined-accelerated stress test (C-AST), which simultaneously combines multiple stress factors of the natural environment. Simultaneous combination of multiple stress factors allows for improved identification of failure modes with better ability to detect modes not known a priori. A demonstration experiment was conducted that reproduced the field-observed cracking of polyamide- (PA-) and polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF)–based backsheet films, a failure mode that was not detected by current design qualification and quality assurance testing requirements. In this work, a two-phase testing protocol was implemented. The first cycle (“Tropical”) is a predominantly high-humidity and high-temperature test designed to replicate harsh tropical climates. The second cycle (“Multi-season”) was designed to replicate drier and more temperate conditions found in continental or desert climates. Testing was conducted on 2 × 2-cell crystalline-silicon cell miniature modules constructed with both ultraviolet (UV)–transmitting and UV-blocking encapsulants. Cracking failures were observed within a cumulative 120 days of the Tropical condition for one of the PA-based backsheets and after 84 days of Tropical cycle followed by 42 days of the Multi-season cycle for the PVDF-based backsheet, which are both consistent with failures seen in fielded modules. In addition to backsheet cracking, degradation modes were observed including solder/interconnect fatigue, various light-induced degradation modes, backsheet delamination, discoloration, corrosion, and cell cracking. The ability to simultaneously apply multiple stress factors may allow many of the test sequences within the standardized design qualification procedure to be performed using a single test setup.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Restoring wetlands on intensive agricultural lands modifies nitrogen cycling microbial communities and reduces N 2 O production potential

The concentration of nitrous oxide (N 2 O), an ozone-depleting greenhouse gas, is rapidly increasing in the atmosphere. Most atmospheric N 2 O originates in terrestrial ecosystems, of which the majority can be attributed to microbial cycling of nitrogen in agricultural soils. Here, in this study, we demonstrate how the abundance of nitrogen cycling genes vary across intensively managed agricultural fields and adjacent restored wetlands in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta in California, USA. We found that the abundances of nirS and nirK genes were highest at the intensively managed organic-rich cornfield and significantly outnumber any other gene abundances, suggesting very high N 2 O production potential. The quantity of nitrogen transforming genes, particularly those responsible for denitrification, nitrification and DNRA, were highest in the agricultural sites, whereas nitrogen fixation and ANAMMOX was strongly associated with the wetland sites. Although the abundance of nosZ genes was also high at the agricultural sites, the ratio of nosZ genes to nir genes was significantly higher in wetland sites indicating that these sites could act as a sink of N 2 O. These findings suggest that wetland restoration could be a promising natural climate solution not only for carbon sequestration but also for reduced N 2 O emissions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Diurnal Reflectance Changes in Vegetation Observed with AVIRIS

Among the most important short-term dynamic biological processes are diurnal changes in canopy water relations. Plant regulation of water transport through stomatal openings affects other gaseous transport processes, often dramatically decreasing photosynthetic fixation of carbon dioxide during periods of water stress. Water stress reduces stomatal conductance of water vapor through the leaf surface and alters the diurnal timing of stomatal opening. Under non-water stressed conditions, stomates typically open soon after dawn and transpire water vapor throughout the daylight period. During stress periods, stomates may close for part of the day, generally near mid-day. Under prolonged stress conditions, stomatal closure shifts to earlier times during the day; stomates may close by mid-morning and remain closed until the following morning - or remain closed entirely. Under these conditions the relationship between canopy greenness (e.g., measured with a vegetation index or by spectral mixture analysis) and photosynthetic fixation of carbon is lost and the remotely sensed vegetation metric is a poor predictor of gas exchange. Prediction of stomatal regulation and exchange of water and trace gases is critical for ecosystem and climate models to correctly estimate budgets of these gases and understand or predict other processes like gross and net ecosystem primary production. Plant gas exchange has been extensively studied by physiologists at the leaf and whole plant level and by biometeorologists at somewhat larger scales. While these energy driven processes follow a predictable if somewhat asymmetric diurnal cycle dependent on soil water availability and the constraints imposed by the solar energy budget, they are nonetheless difficult to measure at the tree and stand levels using conventional methods. Ecologists have long been interested in the potential of remote sensing for monitoring physiological changes using multi-temporal images. Much of this research has focused on day-to-day changes in water use, especially for agricultural applications. Ustin et al. showed seasonal changes in canopy water content in chaparral shrub could be estimated using optical methods. Vanderbilt et al. followed asymmetric diurnal changes in the reflectance of a walnut orchard, but could not attribute specific reflectance changes to specific changes in canopy architecture or physiology. Forests and shrub lands in California experience prolonged periods of drought, sometimes extending six months without precipitation. The conifer and evergreen chaparral communities common to the foothill region around the central valley of California retain their foliage throughout the summer and have low transpiration rates despite high net radiation and temperature conditions. In contrast, grasslands and drought resistant deciduous species in the same habitat are seasonally dormant in summer. Because of differences in the mechanisms of drought tolerance, rooting depth and physiology between different plant communities in the region, it is likely that they display differences in diurnal water relations. The presence of diverse plant communities provides an opportunity to investigate possible diurnal landscape patterns in water relations that could be observed by an airborne hyperspectral scanner. This investigation of AVIRIS data collected over forest and shrub land represents the continuation of a prior investigation involving spectral mixture analysis of diurnal effects in the same AVIRIS data set.

Vanderbilt, V. C.↗

Mapping Temperate Forest Phenology Using Tower, UAV, and Ground-Based Sensors

Phenology is a distinct marker of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems. Accordingly, monitoring the spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation phenology is important to understand the changing Earth system. A wide range of sensors have been used to monitor vegetation phenology, including digital cameras with different viewing geometries mounted on various types of platforms. Sensor perspective, view-angle, and resolution can potentially impact estimates of phenology. We compared three different methods of remotely sensing vegetation phenology—an unoccupied aerial vehicle (UAV)-based, downward-facing RGB camera, a below-canopy, upward-facing hemispherical camera with blue (B), green (G), and near-infrared (NIR) bands, and a tower-based RGB PhenoCam, positioned at an oblique angle to the canopy—to estimate spring phenological transition towards canopy closure in a mixed-species temperate forest in central Virginia, USA. Our study had two objectives: (1) to compare the above- and below-canopy inference of canopy greenness (using green chromatic coordinate and normalized difference vegetation index) and canopy structural attributes (leaf area and gap fraction) by matching below-canopy hemispherical photos with high spatial resolution (0.03 m) UAV imagery, to find the appropriate spatial coverage and resolution for comparison; (2) to compare how UAV, ground-based, and tower-based imagery performed in estimating the timing of the spring phenological transition. We found that a spatial buffer of 20 m radius for UAV imagery is most closely comparable to below-canopy imagery in this system. Sensors and platforms agree within +/− 5 days of when canopy greenness stabilizes from the spring phenophase into the growing season. We show that pairing UAV imagery with tower-based observation platforms and plot-based observations for phenological studies (e.g., long-term monitoring, existing research networks, and permanent plots) has the potential to scale plot-based forest structural measures via UAV imagery, constrain uncertainty estimates around phenophases, and more robustly assess site heterogeneity.

Jeff W. Atkins↗

Drivers of Seasonal Variability in Marine Boundary Layer Aerosol Number Concentration Investigated Using a Steady State Approach

Marine boundary layer (MBL) aerosol particles affect the climate through their interaction with MBL clouds. Although both MBL clouds and aerosol particles have pronounced seasonal cycles, the factors controlling seasonal variability of MBL aerosol particle concentration are not well-constrained. In this paper an aerosol budget is constructed representing the effects of wet deposition, free-tropospheric entrainment, primary surface sources, and advection on the MBL accumulation mode aerosol number concentration (N a ). These terms are further parameterized, and by assuming that on seasonal timescales N a is in steady state, the budget equation is rearranged to form a diagnostic equation for N a based on observable variables. Using data primarily collected in the subtropical northeast Pacific during the MAGIC campaign (Marine ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement) GPCI (GCSS Pacific Cross-section Intercomparison) Investigation of Clouds), estimates of both mean summer and winter N a concentrations are made using the simplified steady-state model and seasonal mean observed variables, and are found to match well with the observed N a . To attribute the modeled difference between summer and winter aerosol concentrations to individual observed variables (e.g. precipitation rate, free-tropospheric aerosol number concentration), a local sensitivity analysis is combined with the seasonal difference in observed variables. This analysis shows that despite wintertime precipitation frequency being lower than summer, the higher winter precipitation rate accounted for approximately 60% of the modeled seasonal difference in N a , which emphasizes the importance of marine stratocumulus precipitation in determining MBL aerosol concentrations on longer time scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seasonally Dependent Future Changes in the U.S. Midwest Hydroclimate and Extremes

This study investigates the responses of the hydroclimate and extremes in the U.S. Midwest to global warming, based on ensemble projections of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and the multimodel initial-condition large-ensemble simulations. The precipitation response features a seasonally dependent change with increased precipitation in April–May but reduced precipitation in July–August. In this work, the late-spring wetting is attributed to the enhanced low-level moisture-transporting southerlies, which are induced by regional sea level pressure anomalies linked to the poleward shift of the North American westerly jet (NAWJ). The late-summer drying is attributed to the weakened storm track, which is also linked to the poleward NAWJ shift. The seasonally dependent future changes of the Midwest precipitation are analogous to its climatological seasonal progression, which increases over late spring as the NAWJ approaches the Midwest and decreases over late summer as the NAWJ migrates away. In response to the mean precipitation changes, extremely wet late springs (April–May precipitation above the 99th percentile of the historical period) and extremely dry late summers (below the 1st percentile) will occur much more frequently, implying increased late-spring floods and late-summer droughts. Future warming in the Midwest is amplified in late summer due to the reduced precipitation. With amplified background warming and increased occurrence, future late-summer droughts will be more devastating. Our results highlight that, under a time-invariant poleward jet shift, opposite precipitation changes arise before and after the peak rainy month, leading to substantial increases in the subseasonal extremes. The severity of such climate impacts is obscured in projections of the rainy-season mean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Boreal Winter MJO Teleconnection in the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 with the Unified Convection Parameterization

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability, influences weather and climate in the extratropics through atmospheric teleconnection. In this study, two simulations using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) - one with the default shallow and deep convection schemes and the other with the Unified Convection scheme (UNICON) - are employed to examine the impacts of cumulus parameterizations on the simulation of the boreal wintertime MJO teleconnection in the Northern Hemisphere. We demonstrate that the UNICON substantially improves the MJO teleconnection. When the UNICON is employed, the simulated circulation anomalies associated with the MJO better resemble the observed counterpart, compared to the simulation with the default convection schemes. Quantitatively, the pattern correlation for the 300-hPa geopotential height anomalies between the simulations and observation increases from 0.07 for the default schemes to 0.54 for the UNICON. These circulation anomalies associated with the MJO further help to enhance the surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies over North America, although room for improvement is still evident. Initial value calculations suggest that the realistic MJO teleconnection with the UNICON is not attributed to the changes in the background wind, but primarily to the improved tropical convective heating associated with the MJO.

Yoo, Changhyun↗

Quantifying the effects of mixing state on aerosol optical properties

Abstract. Calculations of the aerosol direct effect on climate rely on simulated aerosol fields. The model representation of aerosol mixing state potentially introduces large uncertainties into these calculations, since the simulated aerosol optical properties are sensitive to mixing state. In this study, we systematically quantified the impact of aerosol mixing state on aerosol optical properties using an ensemble of 1800 aerosol populations from particle-resolved simulations as a basis for Mie calculations for optical properties. Assuming the aerosol to be internally mixed within prescribed size bins caused overestimations of aerosol absorptivity and underestimations of aerosol scattering. Together, these led to errors in the populations' single scattering albedo of up to −22.3 % with a median of −0.9 %. The mixing state metric χ proved useful in relating errors in the volume absorption coefficient, the volume scattering coefficient and the single scattering albedo to the degree of internally mixing of the aerosol, with larger errors being associated with more external mixtures. At the same time, a range of errors existed for any given value of χ. We attributed this range to the extent to which the internal mixture assumption distorted the particles' black carbon content and the refractive index of the particle coatings. Both can vary for populations with the same value of χ. These results are further evidence of the important yet complicated role of mixing state in calculating aerosol optical properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Darkening of the Greenland Ice Sheet: Trends, Drivers and Projections (1981-2100)

The surface energy balance and meltwater production of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) are modulated by snow and ice albedo through the amount of absorbed solar radiation. Here we show, using space-borne multispectral data collected during the 3 decades from 1981 to 2012, that summertime surface albedo over the GrIS decreased at a statistically significant (99 %) rate of 0.02 decade(sup -1) between 1996 and 2012. Over the same period, albedo modelled by the Modele Atmospherique Regionale (MAR) also shows a decrease, though at a lower rate (approximately -0.01 decade(sup -1)) than that obtained from space-borne data. We suggest that the discrepancy between modelled and measured albedo trends can be explained by the absence in the model of processes associated with the presence of light-absorbing impurities. The negative trend in observed albedo is confined to the regions of the GrIS that undergo melting in summer, with the dry snow zone showing no trend. The period 1981-1996 also showed no statistically significant trend over the whole GrIS. Analysis of MAR outputs indicates that the observed albedo decrease is attributable to the combined effects of increased near-surface air temperatures, which enhanced melt and promoted growth in snow grain size and the expansion of bare ice areas, and to trends in light-absorbing impurities (LAI) on the snow and ice surfaces. Neither aerosol models nor in situ and remote sensing observations indicate increasing trends in LAI in the atmosphere over Greenland. Similarly, an analysis of the number of fires and BC emissions from fires points to the absence of trends for such quantities. This suggests that the apparent increase of LAI in snow and ice might be related to the exposure of a "dark band" of dirty ice and to increased consolidation of LAI at the surface with melt, not to increased aerosol deposition. Albedo projections through to the end of the century under different warming scenarios consistently point to continued darkening, with albedo anomalies averaged over the whole ice sheet lower by 0.08 in 2100 than in 2000, driven solely by a warming climate. Future darkening is likely underestimated because of known underestimates in modelled melting (as seen in hindcasts) and because the model albedo scheme does not currently include the effects of LAI, which have a positive feedback on albedo decline through increased melting, grain growth, and darkening.

surface energy↗

Interdecadal Climate Variations Controlling the Water Level of Lake Qinghai over the Tibetan Plateau

Using observed and reanalysis research, the pronounced interdecadal variations of Lake Qinghai (LQH) water levels and associated climate factors were diagnosed. From the 1960s to the early 2000s, the water level of LQH in the Tibetan Plateau has experienced a continual decline of 3 m but has since increased considerably. A water budget assessment of the LQH watershed implied that the water vapor flux divergence ∇•Q is the dominant atmospheric process modulating precipitation and subsequently the lake volume change ΔV. The marked interdecadal variability in ΔV and ∇•Q and was found to be related to the North Pacific (NP) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) modes during the cold season (November–March). Through empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and regression analyses, the water vapor sink over the LQH watershed also responds critically to the summer Eurasian wave train modulated by the low-frequency variability associated with the cold season NP and PDO modes. Removal of these variability modes (NP, PDO, and the Eurasian wave train) led to a residual uptrend in the hydrological variables of ΔV, ∇•Q and precipitation, corresponding to the net water level increase. Attribution analysis using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) single-forcing experiments shows that the simulations driven by greenhouse gas forcing produced a significant increase in the LQH precipitation, while anthropogenic aerosols generated a minor wetting trend as well.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

GLBRC Soil Yearlong Incubation 13C-SIP-Lipidomics

Data package for Lipids represent a dynamic, yet stable pool of microbially-derived soil carbon This data is published under a CC0 license. The authors encourage data reuse and request attribution by referencing the below citations for the data packages and associated manuscript. Please cite as: Rempfert KR, Bell SL, Kasanke CP, Kyle JE, Hofmockel KS. 2025. GLBRC Soil Yearlong Incubation 13C-SIP-Lipidomics. [Data Set] PNNL DataHub. doi: Rempfert KR, Bell SL, Kasanke CP, Kyle JE, Hofmockel KS. 2025. MSV000097435: GLBRC soil yearlong incubation 13C-SIP-Lipidomics [Data Set] MassIVE. doi:10.25345/C57659T3K Rempfert KR, Bell SL, Kasanke CP, Kyle JE, Hofmockel KS. 2025. Lipids represent a dynamic, yet stable pool of microbially-derived soil carbon. In Prep This data package consists of compound-specific 13C SIP-lipidomics data from a yearlong tracer incubation experiment designed to investigate microbial lipid persistence in switchgrass bioenergy crop soils. In order to explore how lipid structure may modulate the persistence of C in soil lipids, we leveraged soils from two sites (Michigan - sandy texture, Wisconsin - silty texture) operated by the U.S. Department of Energy-funded Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center (GLBRC). These sites had comparable climates, identical management practices, but contrasting soil textures, allowing us to assess the variability of lipid accrual or degradation in soils as well as provide insight regarding the degree to which edaphic properties may regulate the retention of soil lipids. Untargeted lipidomics analyses were performed to identify 13C-labeled lipids in the soil microbiome after long-term incubation. Soils were supplemented with 100 micrograms glucose per gram dry soil (99 atom % 13C or natural abundance for paired control) and incubated; samples were collected two months and one year after glucose addition. Lipid extracts (MPLEx) were analyzed by LC-MS/MS and identified using LIQUID. Calculation of isotopic enrichment of lipids was performed by targeted approach using TarMet to quantify lipid isotopologues and IsoCorrectoR to correct for natural abundance isotopes. Contents: Data package contents reported here are the first version and contain downstream analysis files for the raw LC-MS mass spectrometry files (.mzXML) deposited at the MassIVE database repository under accession MSV000097435 (80 experimental runs; 5.85 GB) | MassIVE DOI: 10.25345/C57659T3K. Support files include the additional data download 'Read Me' file containing data descriptor information. Reported data download contents are structured for compliance with project data sharing guidelines, community standards initiatives, and sponsor stakeholder policies supporting FAIR data principles. Data processing software, analysis tools, and data workflows are listed below corresponding to the host repository long-term location. Available Data Downloads (0.3 GB): "GLBRC soil yearlong incubation 13C-SIP-Lipidomics_readme.txt" - 'Read Me' data package content file (txt) "GLBRC_DataPackage_analysis files" - Data processing files (Rmd) and saved intermediate data processing outputs (rds, csv, xlsx) "GLBRC_13C_lipidomics_dataset.xlsx" - processed data in tabular format (xlsx) Linked Software: LIQUID LC-MS Analysis Software | 10.5281/zenodo.6459462 Lipid Mini-On Software Tools | 10.5281/zenodo.1492803 pmartR Omics Statistical Software | 10.5281/zenodo.6108667 xcms (v4.3.3) TarMet (v1.1.1) IsoCorrectoR (1.24.0) Funding Acknowledgments: This research was supported by an Early Career Research Program award funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER) Genomic Science program under FWP 68292, FWP 07880 and EMSL Exploratory Research Project 51095. A portion of this work was performed in the William R. Wiley Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory, a national scientific user facility sponsored by OBER and located at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PNNL is a multi-program national laboratory operated by Battelle for the DOE under Contract DE-AC05-76RLO1830.

Rempfert, Kaitlin R [Pacific Northwest National La↗

Biomass burning emission analysis based on MODIS aerosol optical depth and AeroCom multi-model simulations: implications for model constraints and emission inventories

We assessed the biomass burning (BB) smoke aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulations of 11 global models that participated in the AeroCom phase III BB emission experiment. By comparing multi-model simulations and satellite observations in the vicinity of fires over 13 regions globally, we (1) assess model-simulated BB AOD performance as an indication of smoke source–strength, (2) identify regions where the common emission dataset used by the models might underestimate or overestimate smoke sources, and (3) assess model diversity and identify underlying causes as much as possible. Using satellite-derived AOD snapshots to constrain source strength works best where BB smoke from active sources dominates background non-BB aerosol, such as in boreal forest regions and over South America and southern hemispheric Africa. The comparison is inconclusive where the total AOD is low, as in many agricultural burning areas, and where the background is high, such as parts of India and China. Many inter-model BB AOD differences can be traced to differences in values for the mass ratio of organic aerosol to organic carbon, the BB aerosol mass extinction efficiency, and the aerosol loss rate from each model. The results point to a need for increased numbers of available BB cases for study in some regions and especially to a need for more extensive regional-to-global-scale measurements of aerosol loss rates and of detailed particle microphysical and optical properties; this would both better constrain models and help distinguish BB from other aerosol types in satellite retrievals. More generally, there is the need for additional efforts at constraining aerosol source strength and other model attributes with multi-platform observations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Dramatic Increases of Soil Microbial Functional Gene Diversity at the Treeline Ecotone of Changbai Mountain

The elevational and latitudinal diversity patterns of microbial taxa have attracted great attention in the past decade. Recently, the distribution of functional attributes has been in the spotlight. Here, we report a study profiling soil microbial communities along an elevation gradient (500-2200 m) on Changbai Mountain. Using a comprehensive functional gene microarray (GeoChip 5.0), we found that microbial functional gene richness exhibited a dramatic increase at the treeline ecotone, but the bacterial taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity based on 16S rRNA gene sequencing did not exhibit such a similar trend. However, the β-diversity (compositional dissimilarity among sites) pattern for both bacterial taxa and functional genes was similar, showing significant elevational distance-decay patterns which presented increased dissimilarity with elevation. The bacterial taxonomic diversity/structure was strongly influenced by soil pH, while the functional gene diversity/structure was significantly correlated with soil dissolved organic carbon (DOC). This finding highlights that soil DOC may be a good predictor in determining the elevational distribution of microbial functional genes. The finding of significant shifts in functional gene diversity at the treeline ecotone could also provide valuable information for predicting the responses of microbial functions to climate change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Quantification of Aerosol Type, and Sources of Aerosols Over the Indo- Gangetic Plain

Differences and similarities in aerosol characteristics, for the first time, over two environmentally distinct locations in Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP) e Kanpur (KPR) (urban location) and Gandhi College (GC) (rural site) are examined. Aerosol optical depths (AODs) exhibit pronounced seasonal variability with higher values during winter and premonsoon. Aerosol fine mode fraction (FMF) and Ångstrom exponent (a) are higher over GC than KPR indicating relatively higher fine mode aerosol concentration over GC. Higher FMF over GC is attributed to local biomass burning activities. Analysis of AOD spectra revealed that aerosol size distribution is dominated by wide range of fine mode fractions or mixture of modes during winter and postmonsoon, while during premonsoon and monsoon coarse mode aerosols are more abundant. Single scattering albedo (SSA) is lower over GC than KPR. SSA spectra reveals the abundance of fine mode (coarse mode) absorbing (scattering) aerosols during winter and postmonsoon (premonsoon and monsoon). Spectral SSA features reveal that OC contribution to enhanced absorption is negligible. Analysis shows that absorbing aerosols can be classified as Mostly Black Carbon (BC), and Mixed BC and Dust over IGP. Mixed BC and dust is always higher over KPR, while Mostly BC is higher over GC throughout the year. The amount of long range transported dust exhibits a gradient between KPR (higher) and GC (lower). Results on seasonally varying aerosol types, and absorbing aerosol types and their gradients over an aerosol hotspot are important to tune models and to reduce the uncertainty in radiative and climate impact of aerosols.

Organic Carbon↗

Pressure Deficit in Gale Crater and a Larger Northern Polar Cap After the MY34 Global Dust Storm

We describe the model-independent analysis technique of Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) pressure and Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) data in de la Torre Juárez et al. (2019, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.169945479.90436599/v1) that compared multiple years of surface pressures on Gale before, during, and after the Global Dust Storm of Mars Year 34. The analysis found (a) representative pressure scale heights over Gale; (b) that the storm was followed by a pressure deficit at Gale; (c) the following C storms did not eliminate the deficit; (d) changes in the duration of the polar caps condensation seasons, with an early start of the North Polar (NP) ice cap growing season the year before the Great Dust Storm (GDS) and a late signature of the end of the expansion season thereafter, changes consistent with a larger growth phase of the NP cap; (e) MCS observed a larger than usual NP cap; and (f) cold temperature anomalies over the NP and warm over the Southern Pole after the storm. We also show that the analysis of observed MSL pressure data alone filters out effects on the pressure signal that are attributable to dynamical and orographic processes in a recent model analysis that makes similar interpretations as our 2019 study. One additional Mars year of observations is included to eliminate early concerns about sensor drifts. Noting that a similar NP anomaly was observed with MCS data after the last early GDS in MY25, and not the later GDS of MY27, the results suggest a possible unique effect of early GDSs.

Manuel de la Torre Juárez↗

Attribution of Recovery in Lower-Stratospheric Ozone

Multiple satellite and ground-based observations provide consistent evidence that the thickness of Earth's protective ozone layer has stopped declining since 1997, close to the time of peak stratospheric halogen loading. Regression analyses with Effective Equivalent Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC) in conjunction with further analyses using more sophisticated photochemical model calculations constrained by satellite data demonstrate that the cessation of ozone depletion between 18-25 km altitude is consistent with a leveling off of stratospheric abundances of chlorine and bromine, due to the Montreal Protocol and its amendments. However, ozone increases in the lowest part of the stratosphere, from the tropopause to 18 km, account for about half of the improvement in total column ozone during the past 9 years at northern hemisphere mid-latitudes. The increase in ozone for altitudes below 18 km is most likely driven by changes in transport, rather than driven by declining chlorine and bromine. Even with this evidence that the Montreal Protocol and its amendments are having the desired, positive effect on ozone above 18 km, total column ozone is recovering faster than expected due to the apparent transport driven changes at lower altitudes. Accurate prediction of future levels of stratospheric ozone will require comprehensive understanding of the factors that drive temporal changes at various altitudes, and partitioning of the recent transport-driven increases between natural variability and changes in atmospheric structure perhaps related to anthropogenic climate change.

Yang, Eun-Su↗

Attribution of Recovery in Lower-stratospheric Ozone

Multiple satellite and ground-based observations provide consistent evidence that the thickness of Earth's protective ozone layer has stopped declining since 1997, close to the time of peak stratospheric halogen loading. Regression analyses with Effective Equivalent Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC) in conjunction with further analyses using more sophisticated photochemical model calculations constrained by satellite data demonstrate that the cessation of ozone depletion between 18-25 km altitude is consistent with a leveling off of stratospheric abundances of chlorine and bromine, due to the Montreal Protocol and its amendments. However, ozone increases in the lowest part of the stratosphere, from the tropopause to 18 km, account for about half of the improvement in total column ozone during the past 9 years at northern hemisphere mid-latitudes. The increase in ozone for altitudes below 18 km is most likely driven by changes in transport, rather than driven by declining chlorine and bromine. Even with this evidence that the Montreal Protocol and its amendments are having the desired, positive effect on ozone above 18 km, total column ozone is recovering faster than expected due to the apparent transport driven changes at lower altitudes. Accurate prediction of future levels of stratospheric ozone will require comprehensive understanding of the factors that drive temporal changes at various altitudes, and partitioning of the recent transport-driven increases between natural variability and changes in atmospheric structure perhaps related to anthropogenic climate change.

Yang, Eun-Su↗