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Fossil fuel CO 2 emissions over metropolitan areas from space: A multi-model analysis of OCO-2 data over Lahore, Pakistan

Urban areas, where gathering more than 55% of the global population, alone contributed to more than 70% of anthropogenic fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO 2ff ) emissions. Accurate quantification of CO 2ff emissions from urban areas is of great importance to the formulation of global warming mitigation policies to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Satellite-based inversion techniques are unique among “top-down” approaches, potentially allowing us to track CO 2ff emission changes over cities globally. However, its accuracy is still limited by incomplete background information, cloud blockages, aerosol contaminations, and uncertainties in models and emission inventories used as prior. To evaluate the current potential of space-based quantification techniques, we present the first attempt to monitor long-term changes in CO 2ff emissions based on the OCO-2 satellite measurements of column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of CO 2 (X CO2 ) over a fast-growing Asian metropolitan area: Lahore, Pakistan. We first examined the OCO-2 data availability at global scale. About 17% of OCO-2 soundings are marked as high-quality soundings by quality flags over the global 70 most populated cities over the period 2014-2019. Cloud blockage and aerosol contamination are the two main causes of data loss. As an attempt to recover additional soundings, we evaluated the effectiveness of OCO-2 quality flags at the city level by comparing three flux quantification methods (WRF-Chem, X-STILT, and flux cross-sectional integration method), all based on the Open-Data Inventory for Anthropogenic Carbon dioxide (ODIAC) product. The satellite/bottom-up emissions (OCO-2/ODIAC) ratios of the high-quality tracks better converged across the three methods compared to the all-data tracks with reduced uncertainties in emissions. Thus, OCO-2 quality flags are useful filters of low-quality OCO-2 retrievals at local scales, although originally designed for global-scale studies. All three methods consistently suggested that the ratio medians are greater than 1, which implies that the ODIAC slightly underestimated the CO2ff emissions over Lahore. Additionally, our estimation of the a posteriori CO2ff emission trend was about 734 kt C/year (i.e., an annual 6.7% increase). 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the Mann-Kendall upward trend test showed that less than 10% prior uncertainty for 8 tracks (or less than 20% prior uncertainty for 25 tracks) is required to achieve a greater-than-50% trend significant possibility at a 95% confidence level. It implies that the trend is driven by the prior and not due to the assimilation of OCO-2 retrievals. The key to improving the role of satellite data in CO 2 emission trend detection lies in collecting more frequent high-quality tracks near metropolitan areas to achieve significant constraints from X CO2 retrievals.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Temporal multispectral and 3D analysis of Cerro de Pasco, Peru

Mining operations across the world often lead to contamination of land, water resources, ecosystems and in some cases, entire communities.Results of recent health and ground sampling studies revealed extensive lead contamination within the populace and around the City of Cerro de Pasco, Peru. Tailings excavated from a large open pit zinc mine in the center of the city have been aggregated in four large stockpiles within close proximity to neighborhoods, schools, and hospitals. Visual comparison of ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) imagery from 2001 and Sentinel-2 imagery from 2018 suggests a size increase in one tailing stockpile in particular near the neighborhood of Paragsha. Due to ongoing mining efforts, the hypothesis motivating the work presented here is that Pb-bearing minerals would be detectable through multispectral analysis, an increase in Pb mineral percent abundance would be observed and tailing stockpile volume would be detectable between 2001 and 2016. This hypothesis is tested using Spectral Angle Mapper (SAM), Adaptive Coherence Estimator (ACE), and Jeffries-Matusita distance calculation on ASTER (2001) and Sentinel-2 (2018) VNIR and SWIR bands. Volume and area estimate of tailing stockpiles were calculated using a photogrammetrically derived point cloud. SAM detected the presence of five Pb-bearing minerals around Cerro de Pasco and Paragsha. The results of the temporal SAM analysis displayed an increase of approximately 17% of Pb-bearing minerals around the greater Cerro de Pasco city area and approximately 11% for the neighborhood of Paragsha. Jeffries-Matusita distance results suggest clear correlation between contamination sources and affected locations. Total tailing stockpile volume was measured to be approximately 200,300,000 m 3 . Volume for Pile 4 was estimated to have increased by approximately 46,000,000 m 3 between 2001 and 2018. Lastly, these presented results will hopefully inspire and guide future remote sensing campaigns, perhaps involving a UAV or aircraft-based hyperspectral instrument.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hand me the franchise agreement: municipalities add another policy tool to their clean energy toolbox

A growing list of the more than 20,000 municipalities in the United States are considering pathways to achieve renewable energy goals. One emerging trend is for municipalities to incorporate energy objectives into their franchise agreements with an electric service provider. Franchise agreements are contracts between municipalities and utilities that grant the utility authority to serve customers in the municipality. In some cases, municipalities have negotiated renewable energy objectives into these agreements. It is still unclear how many municipalities have exercised this authority and to what effect. From a national dataset of 3500 franchise agreements, we selected five cities that adopted renewable energy or energy efficiency objectives into or alongside their franchise agreements for deeper analysis: Chicago, Illinois; Denver, Colorado; Sarasota, Florida; Minneapolis, Minnesota; and Salt Lake City, Utah. We generated seven key takeaways for other cities considering this pathway to achieve their energy objectives. In summary, municipalities can leverage franchise negotiations to pursue both modest and ambitious clean energy goals (i.e. 100% renewable electricity). This study provides municipalities with critical insight on how they can use this potentially formidable tool to achieve their own energy objectives.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Supporting mobile WEEE collection on demand: A method for multi-criteria vehicle routing, loading and cost optimisation

Highlights: • Multi-criteria method of WEEE mobile collection on demand. • Vehicle routing and loading problem included in the model and algorithm. • Optimisation of collecting vehicles routes including genetic algorithms and fuzzy logic. • Case study for heterogeneous fleet of collection vehicles for medium size city in Poland. • Possible application in a software supporting waste collection on demand. - Abstract: The task of increasing collection rates of waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) is an important challenge in the global economy, and especially in the European Union where stiffer collection targets set out in a new WEEE directive are to be effective by 2019. As the circular economy approach replaces the linear model, resource recycling activities become a priority in waste management policy. As new techniques and possibilities of waste collection systems emerge, opportunities are created for improving efficiency for collection companies and affording benefits for the environment. A model proposed for mobile WEEE collection in this study considers a multi-criteria approach in developing a cost efficient method for pick up on demand from residents or electrical and electronic equipment (EEE) stores. The algorithm used in this model optimises vehicle routes and helps in selecting a number of vehicles from a heterogeneous fleet, incorporating the WEEE loading problem. Using genetic algorithm and fuzzy logic, this model optimises costs and resources required to complete the WEEE collection assuring timely pick up of the waste equipment. The numerical model is verified in a case study in Opole, a city in the south of Poland. The results show that the proposed model can handle the multiple parameter optimisation problem including operational costs, efficient use of vehicles from a fleet, efficient waste loading in vehicles and residents' satisfaction with timely pick up of the waste equipment from a household. Such system can be successfully applied even for large cities. The algorithm provides an opportunity for writing software or mobile apps design to be used by WEEE collection companies.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Disentangling the Impact of the COVID‐19 Lockdowns on Urban NO 2 From Natural Variability

Abstract TROPOMI satellite data show substantial drops in nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) during COVID‐19 physical distancing. To attribute NO 2 changes to NO x emissions changes over short timescales, one must account for meteorology. We find that meteorological patterns were especially favorable for low NO 2 in much of the United States in spring 2020, complicating comparisons with spring 2019. Meteorological variations between years can cause column NO 2 differences of ~15% over monthly timescales. After accounting for solar angle and meteorological considerations, we calculate that NO 2 drops ranged between 9.2% and 43.4% among 20 cities in North America, with a median of 21.6%. Of the studied cities, largest NO 2 drops (>30%) were in San Jose, Los Angeles, and Toronto, and smallest drops (<12%) were in Miami, Minneapolis, and Dallas. These normalized NO 2 changes can be used to highlight locations with greater activity changes and better understand the sources contributing to adverse air quality in each city.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lower Urban Humidity Moderates Outdoor Heat Stress

Abstract Surface temperature is often used to examine heat exposure in multi‐city studies and for informing urban heat mitigation efforts due to scarcity of urban air temperature measurements. Cities also have lower relative humidity, traditionally not accounted for in large‐scale observational urban heat risk assessments. Here, using crowdsourced measurements from over 40,000 weather stations in ≈600 urban clusters in Europe, we show the moderating effect of this urbanization‐induced humidity reduction on outdoor heat stress during the 2019 heatwave. We demonstrate that daytime differences in heat index between urban clusters and their surroundings are weak, and associations of this urban‐rural difference with background climate, generally examined from the surface temperature perspective, are diminished due to moisture feedbacks. We also examine the spatial variability of surface temperature, air temperature, and heat index within these clusters—relevant for detecting hotspots and potential disparities in heat exposure—and find that surface temperature is a poor proxy for the intra‐urban distribution of heat index during daytime. Finally, urban vegetation shows much weaker (∼1/6th as strong) associations with heat index than with surface temperature, which has broad implications for optimizing urban heat stress mitigation strategies. These findings are valid for operational metrics of heat stress for shaded conditions (apparent temperature and humidex), thermodynamic proxies (wet‐bulb temperature), and empirical heat indices. Based on this large‐scale empirical evidence, surface temperature, used due to the lack of better alternatives, may not be suitable for accurately informing heat mitigation strategies within and across cities, necessitating more urban‐scale observations and better urban‐resolving models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing Impacts of Environmental Perturbations on Urban Biogenic Carbon Exchange in the Chicago Region

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) quantification is critical for assessing city-level carbon emissions and sustainable urban development. While urban vegetation has the potential to provide environmental benefits, such as heat and carbon mitigation, the CO 2 exchange from biogenic sectors and its impact from the environmental perturbations are often overlooked. It is also challenging to simulate the plant functions in the complex urban terrain. This study presents a processed-based modeling approach to assess the biogenic carbon fluxes from the vegetated areas over the Chicago Metropolitan Area (CMA) using the Weather Research and Forecast—Urban Biogenic Carbon exchange model. We investigate the change of CO 2 sink power in CMA under heatwaves and irrigation. The results indicate that the vegetation plays a significant role in the city's carbon portfolio and the landscaping management has the potential to reduce carbon emissions significantly. Furthermore, based on the competing mechanisms in the biogenic carbon balance identified in this study, we develop a novel Environmental Benefit Score metrics framework to identify the vulnerability and mitigation measures associated with nature-based solutions (NbS) within CMA. By using the generalized portable framework and our science-policy confluence analysis presented in this study, global cities can maximize the effectiveness of NbS and accelerate carbon neutrality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Rapid climate action is needed: comparing heat vs. COVID-19-related mortality

Abstract The impacts of climate change on human health are often underestimated or perceived to be in a distant future. Here, we present the projected impacts of climate change in the context of COVID-19, a recent human health catastrophe. We compared projected heat mortality with COVID-19 deaths in 38 cities worldwide and found that in half of these cities, heat-related deaths could exceed annual COVID-19 deaths in less than ten years (at + 3.0 °C increase in global warming relative to preindustrial). In seven of these cities, heat mortality could exceed COVID-19 deaths in less than five years. Our results underscore the crucial need for climate action and for the integration of climate change into public health discourse and policy.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Artificial light at night outweighs temperature in lengthening urban growing seasons

Plant growing seasons are largely regulated by light and temperature. Cities are increasingly hot (higher air temperature), from the urban heat island effect, and bright (artificial light at night, ALAN). However, the relative effect of heat and light on the timing of plant growth events, called phenology, is unclear, limiting our understanding under climate change and urbanization. Here we used multiple satellite observations of 428 Northern Hemisphere cities from 2014 to 2020 to analyze phenological patterns along a gradient from rural to urban. We found that ALAN increased exponentially toward urban centers, and exerted stronger influence than air temperature in lengthening the urban growing season, especially by delaying its end, although the effects varied across climate zones. Our findings demonstrate that ALAN is a critical driver of vegetation dynamics in cities, one we should consider during urban management and development.

Wang, Lvlv [Wuhan Univ. (China)] (ORCID:0000000347↗

The status and prospective of environmental radiation monitoring stations in Saudi Arabia

The use of nuclear technology requires an environmental monitoring program to ensure the safety of the environment, and to protect people from the hazards of radioactive materials, and nuclear accidents. Nuclear accidents are unique, for they incur effects that surpass international frontiers, and can even have a long lasting impact on Earth. Such was the case of the Chernobyl accident in the Ukraine on April 6, 1986. For that purpose, international and national efforts come together to observe for any nuclear or radioactive accident. Many states, including Saudi Arabia which oversees the operation of the National Radiation, Environmental and Early Monitoring Stations, The Radiation Monitoring Stations(RMS’s) are currently scattered across 35 cities in the country,. These locations are evaluated based on various technological criteria such as border cities, cities of high population density, wind direction, etc. For new nuclear power plants hovering around, it is strongly recommended to increase the number of radiation monitoring stations to warn against any threat that may arise from a nuclear leak or accident and to improve the performance of the existing RMS’s. SARA (Spectroscopic Monitoring Station for air) should be implemented due to the high sensitivity to artificial radiation, automatic isotope identification, free of maintenance, and fully independent due to solar power supply (incl. battery backup) and wireless communication (GPRS)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Prioritizing urban heat adaptation infrastructure based on multiple outcomes: Comfort, health, and energy

Globally, cities face increasing extreme heat, impacting comfort, health, and energy consumption. Infrastructure-based heat adaptation strategies can improve these outcomes, but each strategy has a unique mix of benefits and drawbacks. Here, we apply an urbanized meteorological model (WRF) with the newly integrated multilayer BEP-Tree street tree model to dynamically downscale Earth System Model projections and a 3-D microclimate model (TUF-Pedestrian) to simulate the street-scale radiation environment impacting pedestrians. We evaluate the performance of five heat adaptation strategies (street trees, cool roofs, green roofs, rooftop photovoltaics (PV), and reflective pavements) during extreme heat events in three cities with contrasting background climates (Toronto, Phoenix, and Miami), under contemporary and end-of-century projected climates, based on three metrics: outdoor heat stress, air conditioning (AC) energy use, and ventilation of vehicular air pollution. No single adaptation strategy improves all three outcomes. While street trees inhibit ventilation, they reduce outdoor heat stress four times more effectively than the next best strategy via shade provision, fully offsetting heat stress increases under a high-emissions end-of-century climate scenario in all cities studied. Cool roofs and green roofs moderately reduce heat stress and energy use. Alternatively, rooftop PV with energy storage can generate sufficient power for space cooling but have marginal effects on heat stress. Reflective pavements are the least effective across metrics. Where the ventilation of street-level emissions is of less concern, our results clearly support the combination of street trees and rooftop PV as a highly complementary and effective means of adaptive mitigation across different climates and neighborhood densities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Interactions between urban heat islands and heat waves

Heat waves (HWs) are among the most damaging climate extremes to human society. Climate models consistently project that HW frequency, severity, and duration will increase markedly over this century. For urban residents, the urban heat island (UHI) effect further exacerbates the heat stress resulting from HWs. Here we use a climate model to investigate the interactions between the UHI and HWs in 50 cities in the United States under current climate and future warming scenarios. We examine UHI 2m (defined as urban-rural difference in 2m-height air temperature) and UHI s (defined as urban-rural difference in radiative surface temperature). Our results show significant sensitivity of the interaction between UHI and HWs to local background climate and warming scenarios. Sensitivity also differs between daytime and nighttime. During daytime, cities in the temperate climate region show significant synergistic effects between UHI and HWs in current climate, with an average of 0.4 K higher UHI 2m or 2.8 K higher UHI s during HWs than during normal days. These synergistic effects, however, diminish in future warmer climates. In contrast, the daytime synergistic effects for cities in dry regions are insignificant in the current climate, but emerge in future climates. At night, the synergistic effects are similar across climate regions in the current climate, and are stronger in future climate scenarios. We use a biophysical factorization method to disentangle the mechanisms behind the interactions between UHI and HWs that explain the spatial-temporal patterns of the interactions. Results show that the difference in the increase of urban versus rural evaporation and enhanced anthropogenic heat emissions (air conditioning energy use) during HWs are key contributors to the synergistic effects during daytime. The contrast in water availability between urban and rural land plays an important role in determining the contribution of evaporation. At night, the enhanced release of stored and anthropogenic heat during HWs are the primary contributors to the synergistic effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Air quality and public health co-benefits of 100% renewable electricity adoption and electrification pathways in Los Angeles

To demonstrate how a mega city can lead in decarbonizing beyond legal mandates, the city of Los Angeles (LA) developed science-based, feasible pathways towards utilizing 100% renewable energy for its municipally-owned electric utility. Aside from decarbonization, renewable energy adoption can lead to co-benefits such as improving urban air quality from reductions in combustion-related emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NO x ), primary fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and others. Herein, we quantify changes to air pollutant concentrations and public health from scenarios of 100% renewable electricity adoption in LA in 2045, alongside aggressive electrification of end-use sectors. Our analysis suggests that while ensuring reliable electricity supply, reductions in emissions of air pollutants associated with the 100% renewable electricity scenarios can lead to 8% citywide reductions of PM 2.5 concentration while increasing ozone concentration by 5% relative to a 2012 baseline year, given identical meteorology conditions. The combination of these concentration changes could result in net monetized public health benefits (driven by avoided deaths) of up to $\$$1.4 billion in year 2045 in LA, results potentially replicable for other city-scale decarbonization scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Daytime cooling efficiencies of urban trees derived from land surface temperature are much higher than those for air temperature

Accurately capturing the impact of urban trees on temperature can help optimize urban heat mitigation strategies. Recently, there has been widespread use of remotely sensed land surface temperature (T s ) to quantify the cooling efficiency (CE) of urban trees. However, remotely sensed T s reflects emitted radiation from the surface of an object seen from the point of view of the thermal sensor, which is not a good proxy for the air temperature (T a ) perceived by humans. The extent to which the CEs derived from T s reflect the true experiences of urban residents is debatable. Therefore, this study systematically compared the T s -based CE (CE T s ) with the T a -based CE (CE T a ) in 392 European urban clusters. CE T s and CE T a were defined as the reductions in T s and T a , respectively, for every 1% increase in fractional tree cover (FTC). The results show that the increase in FTC has a substantial impact on reducing T s and T a in most cities during daytime. However, at night, the response of T s and T a to increased FTC appears to be much weaker and ambiguous. On average, for European cities, daytime CE T s reaches 0.075 °C % -1 , which is significantly higher (by an order of magnitude) than the corresponding CE T a of 0.006 °C % -1 . In contrast, the average nighttime CE T s and CE T a for European cities are similar, both approximating zero. Overall, urban trees can lower daytime temperatures, but the magnitude of their cooling effect is notably amplified when using remotely sensed T s estimates compared to in situ T a measurements, which is important to consider for accurately constraining public health benefits. Our findings provide critical insights into the realistic efficiencies of alleviating urban heat through tree planting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Plan evaluation for heat resilience: complementary methods to comprehensively assess heat planning in Tempe and Tucson, Arizona

Abstract Escalating impacts from climate change and urban heat are increasing the urgency for communities to equitably plan for heat resilience. Cities in the desert Southwest are among the hottest and fastest warming in the U.S., placing them on the front lines of heat planning. Urban heat resilience requires an integrated planning approach that coordinates strategies across the network of plans that shape the built environment and risk patterns. To date, few studies have assessed cities’ progress on heat planning. This research is the first to combine two emerging plan evaluation approaches to examine how networks of plans shape urban heat resilience through case studies of Tempe and Tucson, Arizona. The first methodology, Plan Quality Evaluation for Heat Resilience, adapts existing plan quality assessment approaches to heat. We assess whether plans meet 56 criteria across seven principles of high-quality planning and the types of heat strategies included in the plans. The second methodology, the Plan Integration for Resilience Scorecard™ (PIRS™) for Heat, focuses on plan policies that could influence urban heat hazards. We categorize policies by policy tool and heat mitigation strategy and score them based on their heat impact. Scored policies are then mapped to evaluate their spatial distribution and the net effect of the plan network. The resulting PIRS™ for Heat scorecard is compared with heat vulnerability indicators to assess policy alignment with risks. We find that both cities are proactively planning for heat resilience using similar plan and strategy types, however, there are clear and consistent opportunities for improvement. Combining these complementary plan evaluation methods provides a more comprehensive understanding of how plans address heat and a generalizable approach that communities everywhere could use to identify opportunities for improved heat resilience planning.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Scaling and universality in urban economic diversification

Understanding cities is central to addressing major global challenges from climate change to economic resilience. Although increasingly perceived as fundamental socio-economic units, the detailed fabric of urban economic activities is only recently accessible to comprehensive analyses with the availability of large datasets. Here, we study abundances of business categories across US metropolitan statistical areas, and provide a framework for measuring the intrinsic diversity of economic activities that transcends scales of the classification scheme. A universal structure common to all cities is revealed, manifesting self-similarity in internal economic structure as well as aggregated metrics (GDP, patents, crime). We present a simple mathematical derivation of the universality, and provide a model, together with its economic implications of open-ended diversity created by urbanization, for understanding the observed empirical distribution. Given the universal distribution, scaling analyses for individual business categories enable us to determine their relative abundances as a function of city size. These results shed light on the processes of economic differentiation with scale, suggesting a general structure for the growth of national economies as integrated urban systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Co-location Pattern Mining of Geosocial Data to Characterize Urban Functional Spaces

Spatial Co-location Pattern (SCP) mining continues to play a critical role in understanding the morphology of urban functional spaces of world cities. It requires a large amount of fine-granular data and computing efficiency to handle the combinatorial explosion of co-location patterns. To this end, this work has two main contributions - i) We showcase a novel approach to perform SCP mining to characterize intra-city scale structure of urban functionality or co-located activity patterns using geosocial Points-of-Interest (POI) vector data. ii) We present a generalized and optimized parallel/distributed SCP mining algorithm implemented on a Hadoop MapReduce system and demonstrate the utility of our approach using the city of Berlin (Germany) as an example. The SCPs tend to vary across Berlin's municipal boroughs and at different spatial scales. Our findings on Berlin's functional structure conform to existing urban geography models. Such a data-driven exploration of massive urban POIs using distributed computing is first of its kind and can help better understand the changing dynamics of urban functionality, as well as physical, and social network structure around the world.

Masrur, Arif↗

Hands-On Computer Science: The Array of Things Experimental Urban Instrument

Chicago's Array of Things (AoT) project is aptly described as a technology experiment or a "smart city" prototype. The concept of such an extensible "instrument" arose within a larger translational research vision applying computer science and engineering research for the multidimensional benefit of people and communities in cities. The AoT project hypothesized that wireless intelligent sensor networks could enable both quantitative social science and urban monitoring while also stimulating youth interest in science and technology. Successful deployment of such sensor networks could provide open data from urban measurements not only in support of diverse research questions-in environmental dynamics, urban architecture, engineering, and social sciences-but also informing community groups and city planners. Further, the AoT project and its successor SAGE project are a computer science and engineering experiment, but its success is inextricably tied to community engagement and experiential education. Simply put, community acceptance is a prerequisite to installing and testing the instrument.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗