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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,027 records · Page 57
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Representation of Modes of Variability in Six U.S. Climate Models

We compare the performance of several modes of variability across six U.S. climate modeling groups, with a focus on identifying robust improvements in recent models [including those participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)] compared to previous versions. In particular, we examine the representation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the tropical stratosphere, and the dominant modes of extratropical variability, including the southern annular mode (SAM), the northern annular mode (NAM) [and the closely related North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)], and the Pacific–North American pattern (PNA). Where feasible, we explore the processes driving these improvements through the use of “intermediary” experiments that utilize model versions between CMIP3/5 and CMIP6 as well as targeted sensitivity experiments in which individual modeling parameters are altered. We find clear and systematic improvements in the MJO and QBO and in the teleconnection patterns associated with the PDO and ENSO. Some gains arise from better process representation, while others (e.g., the QBO) from higher resolution that allows for a greater range of interactions. Our results demonstrate that the incremental development processes in multiple climate model groups lead to more realistic simulations over time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

ENSO Dynamics in the E3SM-1-0, CESM2, and GFDL-CM4 Climate Models

We report that this study examines historical simulations of ENSO in the E3SM-1-0, CESM2, and GFDL-CM4 climate models, provided by three leading U.S. modeling centers as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). These new models have made substantial progress in simulating ENSO’s key features, including: amplitude; timescale; spatial patterns; phase-locking; spring persistence barrier; and recharge oscillator dynamics. However, some important features of ENSO are still a challenge to simulate. In the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, the models’ weaker-than-observed subsurface zonal current anomalies and zonal temperature gradient anomalies serve to weaken the nonlinear zonal advection of subsurface temperatures, leading to insufficient warm/cold asymmetry of ENSO’s sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). In the western equatorial Pacific, the models’ excessive simulated zonal SST gradients amplify their zonal temperature advection, causing their SSTA to extend farther west than observed. The models underestimate both ENSO’s positive dynamic feedbacks (due to insufficient zonal wind stress responses to SSTA) and its thermodynamic damping (due to insufficient convective cloud shading of eastern Pacific SSTA during warm events); compensation between these biases leads to realistic linear growth rates for ENSO, but for somewhat unrealistic reasons. The models also exhibit stronger-than-observed feedbacks onto eastern equatorial Pacific SSTAs from thermocline depth anomalies, which accelerates the transitions between events and shortens the simulated ENSO period relative to observations. Implications for diagnosing and simulating ENSO in climate models are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulation of African Easterly Waves in a Global Climate Model

Abstract African easterly waves (AEWs) exert significant influence on local and downstream high-impact weather including tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the Atlantic. Accurate representation of AEWs in climate and weather prediction models therefore is necessary for skillful predictions. In this study, we examine simulated AEWs, including their evolution, vertical structure, and linkage to tropical cyclone genesis, in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric global climate model. Identified by the leading empirical orthogonal function mode of time-filtered precipitation, the observed westward propagating AEWs along the southern track over the Atlantic are largely captured in GEOS-5, but with a slower phase speed and significantly weaker amplitude downstream off the West Africa coast. The weak downstream development of AEWs in GEOS-5 is accompanied by much reduced TC genesis over the main development region. Further analyses suggest that the slow westward propagation and weaker AEW amplitude downstream can be ascribed to a weak African easterly jet, while overestimated negative (positive) meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradients appear to the north (south) of 10°N in GEOS-5. The greatly overestimated positive meridional PV gradient to the south of 10°N is expected to generate strong horizontal stretching in the AEW wave pattern in the model, which hinders organization of convection and its feedback to sustain the AEW development. Persistent and vigorous AEW precipitation in the Guinea Highlands of the West Africa coast could also be responsible for reduced westward propagation of AEWs in the model.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity of Arctic Clouds to Ice Microphysical Processes in the NorESM2 Climate Model

Abstract Ice formation remains one of the most poorly represented microphysical processes in climate models. While primary ice production (PIP) parameterizations are known to have a large influence on the modeled cloud properties, the representation of secondary ice production (SIP) is incomplete and its corresponding impact is therefore largely unquantified. Furthermore, ice aggregation is another important process for the total cloud ice budget, which also remains largely unconstrained. In this study, we examine the impact of PIP, SIP, and ice aggregation on Arctic clouds, using the Norwegian Earth System Model, version 2 (NorESM2). Simulations with both prognostic and diagnostic PIP show that heterogeneous freezing alone cannot reproduce the observed cloud ice content. The implementation of missing SIP mechanisms (collisional breakup, drop shattering, and sublimation breakup) in NorESM2 improves the modeled ice properties, while improvements in liquid content occur only in simulations with prognostic PIP. However, results are sensitive to the description of collisional breakup. This mechanism, which dominates SIP in the examined conditions, is very sensitive to the treatment of the sublimation correction factor, a poorly constrained parameter that is included in the utilized parameterization. Finally, variations in ice aggregation treatment can also significantly impact cloud properties, mainly through their impact on collisional breakup efficiency. Overall, enhancement in ice production through the addition of SIP mechanisms and the reduction in ice aggregation (in line with radar observations of shallow Arctic clouds) result in enhanced cloud cover and decreased TOA radiation biases, compared to satellite measurements, especially during the cold months. Significance Statement Arctic clouds remain a large source of uncertainty in projections of the future climate due to the poor representation of the microphysical processes that govern their life cycle. Ice formation is among the least understood processes. While it is widely recognized that better constraints on primary ice production (PIP) are needed to improve existing parameterizations, we show that secondary ice production (SIP) and ice aggregation can have also a significant impact on ice number concentrations. Constraining ice formation through the addition of missing SIP mechanisms and reducing ice aggregation can improve the representation of the cloud macrophysical properties and enhance total cloud cover in the Arctic region, which in turn contributes to decreased TOA radiation biases in the cold months.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

Floods due to Atmospheric Rivers along the U.S. West Coast: The Role of Antecedent Soil Moisture in a Warming Climate

Precipitation extremes are projected to become more frequent along the U.S. West Coast due to increased atmospheric river (AR) activity, but the frequency of less intense precipitation events may decrease. Antecedent soil moisture (ASM) conditions can have a large impact on flood responses, especially if prestorm precipitation decreases. Taken together with increased antecedent evaporative demand due to warming, this would result in reduced soil moisture at the onset of extreme precipitation events. In this work, we examine the impact of ASM on AR-related floods in a warming climate in three basins that form a transect along the U.S. Pacific Coast: the Chehalis River basin in Washington, the Russian River basin in Northern California, and the Santa Margarita River basin in Southern California. Additionally, we ran the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) over the three river basins using forcings downscaled from 10 global climate models (GCMs). We examined the dynamic role of ASM by comparing the changes in the largest 50, 100, and 150 extreme events in two periods, 1951–2000 and 2050–99. In the Chehalis basin, the projected fraction of AR-related extreme discharge events slightly decreases. In the Russian basin, this fraction increases, however, and more substantially so in the Santa Margarita basin. This is due to increases in AR-related extreme precipitation events, as well as the fact that the relationship of extreme precipitation to extreme discharge is strengthened by projected increases in year-to-year volatility of annual precipitation in California, which increases the likelihood of concurrent occurrence of large storms and wet ASM conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Resilience and fault tolerance in high-performance computing for numerical weather and climate prediction

Progress in numerical weather and climate prediction accuracy greatly depends on the growth of the available computing power. As the number of cores in top computing facilities pushes into the millions, increased average frequency of hardware and software failures forces users to review their algorithms and systems in order to protect simulations from breakdown. This report surveys hardware, application-level and algorithm-level resilience approaches of particular relevance to time-critical numerical weather and climate prediction systems. A selection of applicable existing strategies is analysed, featuring interpolation-restart and compressed checkpointing for the numerical schemes, in-memory checkpointing, user-level failure mitigation and backup-based methods for the systems. Numerical examples showcase the performance of the techniques in addressing faults, with particular emphasis on iterative solvers for linear systems, a staple of atmospheric fluid flow solvers. The potential impact of these strategies is discussed in relation to current development of numerical weather prediction algorithms and systems towards the exascale. Trade-offs between performance, efficiency and effectiveness of resiliency strategies are analysed and some recommendations outlined for future developments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Artificial Intelligence-Enhanced CMIP6 Climate Projections Across the Conterminous United States

This dataset comprises high-resolution climate projections at 1/24 degree grid (~4km) over the conterminous United States (CONUS) based on ten Global Climate Models (GCMs) that are part of the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The CMIP6 GCMs are downscaled using two artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, primarily based on the computer vision approach called super-resolution. We train two separate networks: super-resolution convolutional neural network (SRCNN) and super-resolution generative adversarial network (SRGAN). The networks are trained using Daymet observations, originally available at a 1 km resolution. For training purposes, the Daymet data is interpolated to 1/24 degree (~4km), 0.25 degree and 1 degree, which serve as high, intermediate and low-resolution inputs respectively. For each of the SRCNN and SRGAN network, we use a two-step resolution enhancement, the first step generates 4x refinement from 1 degree to 0.25 degree and the second step generates 6x refinement from 0.25 degree to 1/24 degree (~4km). We downscale daily scale precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature for the six CMIP6 GCMs for 1980 to 2019 in the historical period and 2020 to 2059 in the near-term future under the shared socioeconomic pathway 585 and 245 (SSP585 and SSP245) emission scenarios. We also perform double bias-correction with Daymet observations using a quantile mapping approach, first for GCMs prior to making predictions at 1 degree grid and second after making final predictions at ~4km.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Geology and climate influence rhizobiome composition of the phenotypically diverse tropical tree Tabebuia heterophylla

Plant-associated microbial communities have diverse phenotypic effects on their hosts that are only beginning to be revealed. We hypothesized that morpho-physiological variations in the tropical tree Tabebuia heterophylla, observed on different geological substrates, arise in part due to microbial processes in the rhizosphere. We characterized the microbiota of the rhizosphere and soil communities associated with T. heterophylla trees in high and low altitude sites (with varying temperature and precipitation) of volcanic, karst and serpentine geologies across Puerto Rico. We sampled 6 areas across the island in three geological materials including volcanic, serpentine and karst soils. Collection was done in 2 elevations (>450m and 0-300m high), that included 3 trees for each site and 4 replicate soil samples per tree of both bulk and rhizosphere. Genomic DNA was extracted from 144 samples, and 16S rRNA V4 sequencing was performed on the Illumina MiSeq platform. Proteobacteria, Actinobacteria, and Verrucomicrobia were the most dominant phyla, and microbiomes clustered by geological substrate and elevation. Volcanic samples were enriched in Verrucomicrobia; karst was dominated by nitrogen-fixing Proteobacteria, and serpentine sites harbored the most diverse communities, with dominant Cyanobacteria. Sites with similar climates but differing geologies showed significant differences on rhizobiota diversity and composition demonstrating the importance of geology in shaping the rhizosphere microbiota, with implications for the plant's phenotype. Our study sheds light on the combined role of geology and climate in the rhizosphere microbial consortia, likely contributing to the phenotypic plasticity of the trees.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data, scripts, and figures associated with a manuscript studying impact of climate and topography on post-fire vegetation recovery.

This data package is associated with the publication “Impact of Topography and Climate on Post-fire Vegetation Recovery Across Different Burn Severity and Land Cover Types through Machine Learning” submitted to Remote Sensing of Environment (Zahura et al. 2023). In this research, a machine learning algorithm, random forest (RF), was utilized to examine the impact of climate and topography on post-fire vegetation recovery. We used enhanced vegetation index (EVI) to examine varying burn severity and land cover types. The data package includes the input files for RF model training, outputs from model predictions and analysis, and python scripts to run the model, analyze the results to understand model performance and interpretability, and plot manuscript figures. This data package contains three folders (Data, Scripts, and Figures), a file-level metadata (FLMD) csv, and a data dictionary (dd) csv. Please see Postfire_recovery_flmd.csv for a list of all files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. The data dictionary (Postfire_recovery_dd.csv) describes the csv column headers. The “Data” folder provides all the inputs and outputs to train the RF model, evaluate performance, and interpret predictions. The “Scripts” folder contains python scripts and jupyter notebooks for model training and result analysis. The “Figures” folder includes the figures used in the manuscript in “.png” and “.jpg” format.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Remote Sensing and GIS data at 1km-grid over Chesapeake Bay used in “He et al. 2024, Effects of spatial variability in vegetation phenology, climate, landcover, biodiversity, topography, and soil property on soil respiration across a coastal ecosystem”

The package contains the data layers used in “He et al. 2024, Effects of spatial variability in vegetation phenology, climate, landcover, biodiversity, topography, and soil property on soil respiration across a coastal ecosystem”. The study aims to use multi-source remote sensing and GIS datasets to investigate the spatial heterogeneity and identify spatial zones with similar environmental characteristics and understand the primary driving factors affecting soil respiration within sub-ecosystems of the coastal ecosystem. We employed unsupervised hierarchical clustering analysis to identify spatial regions with distinct environmental characteristics, then determined the main driving factors using Random Forest regression and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Spatial data layers include soil respiration, kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI) computed from Harmonized Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 time series, climate variables from the Daymet dataset, land cover, biodiversity, topographical metrics, soil property, and tidal elevation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Report on local data recovery approaches suitable for weather and climate prediction (Deliverable 1.3) (V.1.0)

Numerical weather and climate prediction rates as one of the scientific applications whose accuracy improvements greatly depend on the growth of the available computing power. As the number of cores in top computing facilities pushes into the millions, increasing average frequency of hardware and software failures forces users to review their algorithms and systems in order to protect simulations from breakdown. This report surveys approaches for fault-tolerance in numerical algorithms and system resilience in parallel simulations from the perspective of numerical weather and climate prediction systems. A selection of existing strategies is analyzed, featuring interpolation-restart and compressed checkpointing for the numerics, in-memory checkpointing, user-level failure mitigation-based and backup-based methods for the systems. Numerical examples showcase the performance of the techniques in addressing faults, with particular emphasis on iterative solvers for linear systems, a staple of atmospheric fluid flow solvers. The potential impact of these strategies is discussed in relation to current development of numerical weather prediction algorithms and systems towards the exascale. Trade-offs between performance, efficiency and effectiveness of resiliency strategies are analyzed and some recommendations outlined for future developments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Coastal Wetland Carbon Sequestration in a Warmer Climate (Final Report)

Coastal wetlands are global hotspots of carbon storage and locations where carbon and nitrogen cycles have a disproportionately large impact on land, water, and air in comparison to the area they occupy. The extremely high rates of carbon sequestration in these systems are the result of complex feedbacks between vegetation and the physical environment. The plant and microbial interactions that drive these feedbacks are absent in ecosystem- and global-scale Earth System models. The goal of this proposal was to address the uncertain response of the coastal carbon sink to climate change, a critical knowledge gap in coastal carbon research and a significant barrier to incorporating coastal wetlands into Earth System Models. The Salt Marsh Accretion Response to Temperature eXperiment (SMARTX) was designed to understand the ecosystem-scale consequences of warming and elevated CO₂ (eCO₂) in tidal wetlands at the coastal terrestrial-aquatic interface. We successfully designed and built a novel whole-ecosystem warming and eCO₂ experiment in a coastal wetland. The gradient design of the warming treatments (+0, +1.7, +3.4, +5.1 ⁰C) allowed us to discover unexpected non-linear and non-additive responses arising from plant-microbe interactions. We concluded that these non-linear responses to warming were the result of plants and microbes responding to temperature at different thresholds, with important consequences for forecasting terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change and understanding global trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Monitoring of Unvented Roofs with Fibrous Insulation, Diffusion Vents, and Interior Vapor Control in a Cold Climate

This research involved construction of a conditioned test hut in a cold climate (Climate Zone 5A) with multiple side-by-side instrumented roof rafter bays. This work examined seven experimental unvented roofs and one code-compliant control hybrid ccSPF-cellulose roof over three winters and following summers. Examined variables included insulation material (fiberglass and cellulose), the presence or absence of a ridge diffusion vent (vapor-open material at the roof ridge to promote drying), the effect of various interior vapor control membranes (fixed and variable permeance), the effect of interior relative humidity, and the effect of interstitial airflow (from the interior into the cavity). This experiment was run over three winters, changing variables of interior conditions, roof configurations/materials, and the addition of intentional air leakage.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

ARM Data-Oriented Metrics and Diagnostics Package for Climate Model Evaluation

A Python-based metrics and diagnostics package is currently being developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility Infrastructure Team at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to facilitate the use of long-term, high-frequency measurements from ARM in evaluating the regional climate simulation of clouds, radiation, and precipitation. This metrics and diagnostics package computes climatological means of targeted climate model simulation and generates tables and plots for comparing the model simulation with ARM observational data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

AI Automated Discovery of New Climate Water System Knowledge from Models and Observations

This paper addresses focus area 3, “Insight gleaned from complex data.” Science Challenge: The climate-water system is highly complex, containing a multitude of positive and negative feedbacks, time scales stretching many orders-of-magnitudes, and non-linear, connected processes. Powerful artificial intelligence (AI) methods can revolutionize and automate the discovery of new knowledge and relationships in the climate-water system, which will improve understanding and predictability of extreme hydrological events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

AI for Extreme Volcanic Climate Forcing and Feedback Forecasting in the 21st century

Focal Areas: Our paradigm-shifting framework will apply machine learning and perform physical analysis of contemporary volcanoes to develop sound forecasts of extreme eruptions in the 21st century and their abrupt drying and cooling impacts on the warming climate. We will also bridge climate data driven regression models and earth system model output to trace teleconnections that exacerbate regional impacts such as Arctic amplification and western US droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep learning techniques to disentangle water use efficiency, climate change, and carbon sequestration across ecosystem scales

Focal Areas: We plan to use machine learning (ML) to disentangle the impact of climate change on plant water use efficiency (WUE) across the leaf level, structured canopy, and community ecosystem scales. Due to the complex behavior of modeling plant WUE’s connection to carbon storage (and hidden co-varying interactions) we suggest that physics-based deep learning must be utilized. The second topic we propose is, based on a better understanding of WUE response to climate change, there is a need to predict how WUE will limit or enhance the recycling of water from transpiration by vegetation back to the land surface worldwide, and thus impact water storage capacity (i.e., natural and reservoirs), using machine learning optimization techniques such as genetic algorithms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Develop a weather-aware climate model to understand and predict extremes and associated power outages and renewable energy shortages with uncertainty-aware and physics-informed machine learning

Focal Area(s): The focus area is predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components with a particular emphasis on extreme weather in Atmospheric Science and power outages and shortages in Energy Science. Science Challenge: Predicting weather extremes (e.g., heavy precipitation, strong wind, and large hailstones), and weather-related power system outages and shortages can mitigate economic losses, save lives, support renewables integration, and improve power system resiliency. However, currently, the poor reliability and large uncertainty associated with the weather extreme prediction in the current climate models make the problem intractable. The key challenges are: (1) physical factors like green-house gases (GHGs), aerosols, and land use and land cover (LULC) can significantly impact extreme storms, but the understanding of these impacts is limited, particularly globally; (2) the convective permitting resolutions needed to model severe convective storms and their impacts are computationally prohibitive with global climate models (GCMs); (3) interactions between weather extremes and power system outages are complex and subject to great uncertainty. Current outage prediction models are short lead (~ 3 days), which do not allow for long-time planning of energy production and distribution. Moreover, we have limited capacity to predict weather events leading to sustained shortages in a renewable-energy-dominated power system. These challenges drive motivation for mechanistic understanding and reliable and efficient predictive modeling of extremes and their impacts from the sub-seasonal to long term projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗