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At least 1,027 records · Page 57

Long-term, large-scale experiment reveals the effects of seed limitation, climate, and anthropogenic disturbance on restoration of plant communities in a biodiversity hotspot

Ecological restoration is essential for maintaining biodiversity in the face of dynamic, global changes in climate, human land use, and disturbance regimes. Effective restoration requires understanding bottlenecks in plant community recovery that exist today, while recognizing that these bottlenecks may relate to complex histories of environmental change. Such understanding has been a challenge because few long-term, well-replicated experiments exist to decipher the demographic processes influencing recovery for numerous species against the backdrop of multiyear variation in climate and management. Here we address this challenge through a long-term and geographically expansive experiment in longleaf pine savannas, an imperiled ecosystem and biodiversity hotspot in the southeastern United States. Using 48 sites at three locations spanning 480 km, the 8-y experiment manipulated initial seed arrival for 24 herbaceous plant species and presence of competitors to evaluate the impacts of climate variability and management actions (e.g., prescribed burning) on plant establishment and persistence. Adding seeds increased plant establishment of many species. Cool and wet climatic conditions, low tree density, and reduced litter depth also promoted establishment. Once established, most species persisted for the duration of the 8-y experiment. Plant traits were most predictive when tightly coupled to the process of establishment. Our results illustrate how seed additions can restore plant diversity and how interannual climatic variation affects the dynamics of plant communities across a large region. The significant effects of temperature and precipitation inform how future climate may affect restoration and conservation via large-scale changes in the fundamental processes of establishment and persistence.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Internal variability and forcing influence model–satellite differences in the rate of tropical tropospheric warming

Climate-model simulations exhibit approximately two times more tropical tropospheric warming than satellite observations since 1979. The causes of this difference are not fully understood and are poorly quantified. Here, we apply machine learning to relate the patterns of surface-temperature change to the forced and unforced components of tropical tropospheric warming. This approach allows us to disentangle the forced and unforced change in the model-simulated temperature of the midtroposphere (TMT). In applying the climate-model-trained machine-learning framework to observations, we estimate that external forcing has produced a tropical TMT trend of 0.25 ± 0.08 K⋅decade −1 between 1979 and 2014, but internal variability has offset this warming by 0.07 ± 0.07 K⋅decade −1 . Using the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) large ensemble, we also find that a discontinuity in the variability of prescribed biomass-burning aerosol emissions artificially enhances simulated tropical TMT change by 0.04 K⋅decade −1 . The magnitude of this aerosol-forcing bias will vary across climate models, but since the latest generation of climate models all use the same emissions dataset, the bias may systematically enhance climate-model trends over the satellite era. Our results indicate that internal variability and forcing uncertainties largely explain differences in satellite-versus-model warming and are important considerations when evaluating climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Supermassive Dark Star candidates seen by JWST

The first generation of stars in the universe is yet to be observed. There are two leading theories for those objects that mark the beginning of the cosmic dawn: hydrogen burning Population III stars and Dark Stars, made of hydrogen and helium but powered by dark matter heating. The latter can grow to become supermassive (M$_\star$ ~ 10 6 M ⊙ ) and extremely bright (L ~ 109L ⊙ ). We show that each of the following three objects—JADES-GS-z13-0, JADES-GS-z12-0, and JADES-GS-z11-0 (at redshifts z ϵ [11, 14])—are consistent with a Supermassive Dark Star interpretation, thus identifying the first Dark Star candidates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Data-driven Detection and Early Prediction of Thermoacoustic Instability in a Multi-nozzle Combustor

Thermoacoustic instability (TAI) is a critical issue in modern lean-burn gas-turbine combustors, which is induced by a strong coupling between the resonant combustor acoustics and fluctuations in the heat release rate. This instability may lead to high-amplitude pressure waves that generate undesirable noise levels as well as fatigue stresses in mechanical structures of the combustor. The intense pressure fluctuations due to TAI may also cause large flow perturbations and possibly flow reversal that may lead to flame oscillations, flame liftoff, and even flame blow-out. Hence, there is a strong need for exercising control actions in a timely fashion to mitigate the TAI phenomena. Anomaly detection is an essential prerequisite to the design of a good controller and such a detector must be able to reliably predict a forthcoming TAI. To detect and predict the onset of a TAI from an ensemble of pressure time series, this paper investigates three data-driven methods: Fast Fourier transform (FFT), symbolic time series analysis (STSA), and hidden Markov modeling (HMM). The main focus of the paper is to make a comparative evaluation of these three anomaly detection methods for classification of the current regime of operation into stable and unstable categories as well as for real-time identification of precursors to impending instabilities with short-length time series of measured variables (e.g., pressure oscillations). Finally, the results, generated on experimental data from a multi-nozzle combustor apparatus, have been compared to evaluate the performance of FFT, STSA, and HMM methods for TAI analysis.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Transition Core Analysis for HEU to LEU Fuel Conversion at the University of Missouri Research Reactor

A new type of low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel based on an alloy of uranium and molybdenum is expected to allow the conversion of U.S. domestic high-performance research and test reactors requiring high density fuel from highly enriched uranium (HEU) to LEU. The University of Missouri Research Reactor (MURR (R)) has undergone design and performance calculations for conversion to this LEU fuel. Presented in this paper is the analysis of a crucial step in the conversion process: the sequence of MURR transition cores from all fresh to equilibrium burnup LEU operations. During the initial conversion from HEU to LEU fuel, MURR will operate atypically due to the lack of burned LEU elements. Given the constraints of MURR operation and experiments, a proposed transition scheme minimizes the time MURR operates atypically compared to the prototypic cycles currently run with HEU fuel and moves quickly to the same sort of equilibrium cycles for the LEU fuel.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Towards an Agent-Based Blackboard System for Reactor Design Optimization

The field of reactor design is rich with opportunities for applications of computational optimization algorithms; these applications can range from preliminary core design to reactor shuffling patterns. Many of these schemes rely on sets of previously generated solutions (sometimes referred to as “generations”) to inform future decisions. While it is important to build upon prior knowledge, this process requires a full generation of solutions to be formed before future solutions can be examined. Rather than relying on a generational scheme to perform an optimization, we propose using an agent-based approach in conjunction with a blackboard framework for performing reactor design optimizations. Utilizing an agent-based approach allows agents to perform tasks independently, while retaining the ability to build off of previous solutions. We develop an agent-based blackboard system (ABBS) for determining the Pareto front (PF) in sodium fast reactor design optimization problems and compared this with the Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II). Our goal is to evaluate the viability of the ABBS in producing a PF that is comparable with the NSGA-II algorithm. The design space consists of the fuel height, fuel smear, and plutonium fraction in the core, and we seek to minimize the reactivity swing and plutonium mass, while maximizing the burnup. The diversity, coverage, and spread of the PFs generated by the two methods are examined, and the ABBS is able to converge to the same PF as the NSGA-II algorithm. These results show that the ABBS is able to find optimal designs that are similar to those found by the NSGA-II algorithm. We conclude our study by applying the ABBS to the design of a sodium-cooled fast reactor to dispose of weapons-grade plutonium. The ABBS finds a core design that can burn upwards of 17.5 kg of weapons-grade plutonium per year and degrade an additional 195 kg of weapons-grade plutonium per year into non-weapons-grade material.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Feasibility of Recycling Discharged Microreactor Heavy Metal in Light Water and Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactors: A Neutronics Analysis

Nuclear microreactors (MRs) offer unique advantages, such as rapid deployment, potability, low maintenance requirements, and operational flexibility. Their compact size makes them a promising solution for decentralized power generation, particularly in remote areas, military bases, and disaster-stricken regions. However, MRs face challenges, including unutilized fissile material at the end of life, economic inefficiency, increased heavy metal (HM) waste complicating disposal, and the accumulation of plutonium (Pu) with high 239 Pu concentrations raising proliferation risks. Here, this study investigated the neutronics feasibility of a novel three-stage fuel cycle where discharged HM from MRs is recycled and burned in light water reactors and sodium-cooled fast reactors. This approach converts discharged HM into valuable fuel, enhancing the efficiency of MR deployments while improving the safeguardability of their final waste products. Neutronics analysis demonstrated that the safety characteristics of reactor designs in each stage were minimally impacted by the proposed cycle. For two representative MR designs, a fast-spectrum MR with solid pellet fuel and a thermal-spectrum MR with TRISO (TRi-structural-ISOtropic) fuel compacts, the proposed fuel cycle reduced the uranium disposal mass flow rate by ~60%, decreased the 235 U enrichment of the discharge fuel to ~1 wt%, eliminated plutonium disposal, and increased the cumulative fuel burnup to ~580 gigawatt-day per metric ton of initial heavy metal (GWd/t-iHM) or 60% fissions per initial metal atom. Despite the significant differences between the two MR designs, the performance and infrastructure requirements of the developed fuel cycles were remarkably similar, indicating its generalizability to a broader class of MRs.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Secondary-Source Core Reload Modeling with VERA

The CASL reactor simulation package VERA has been adapted to provide high-fidelity simulation capabilities for modeling source range detector response during subcritical reactor configurations. New features include the activation and shuffling of secondary-source assemblies, use of burned fuel neutron emission data from the ORIGEN depletion solver to the MPACT deterministic neutron transport solver, allowance of user-defined sources in MPACT based on material composition, ability to solve the subcritical source-driven system with neutron multiplication using the MPACT diffusion solver, and transfer of the calculated fission source from MPACT to the continuous-energy Monte Carlo solver Shift for final detector response evaluation using the CADIS methodology for variance reduction. These new capabilities were benchmarked against Watts Bar Unit 1 plant operating data for the first few fuel loading steps and were found to demonstrate excellent agreement with the measured data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Fixed Source Sensitivity Calculations for Inertial Confinement Fusion Applications

A numerical code library was developed for the radiation transport code MCNP6.3 to calculate generalized response sensitivity coefficients for fixed source neutron transport problems with applications to inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments. The new MCNP6.3 dependency is used to generate a novel time convolution response that represents a neutron time-of-flight (nToF) signal. The traditional suite of macroscopic cross-section sensitivities and constrained fixed source probability distribution sensitivities are available for both the standard and the new response tallies in this library. However, novel sensitivity coefficients for the constrained hyperparameters of analytic fixed source probability distributions are emphasized in this work for their connection to ICF neutron transport models. Particularly, advanced Monte Carlo methods are developed for calculating the sensitivity of a nToF signal to perturbations in an ICF plasma’s ion temperature and burn history as well as perturbations in the target liner mass density and the shape parameters of the nToF detector’s impulse response function. Together, these capabilities form an advanced suite of computational tools that can be used to analyze and extract information from any ICF experimental platform.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Stochastic Optimization to Find Optimum Beginning-of-Life Core Configuration of Stable Salt Reactor with Online Refueling

A stochastic optimization method has been developed to find an optimum equilibrium cycle core configuration of the waste-burning stable salt reactor, which is a fast-spectrum molten salt reactor with frequent online refueling. An optimum core configuration was determined with the goal of minimizing radial power peaking. Because of the vast number of potential candidate core configurations, stochastic optimization was applied based on simulated annealing and an additional acceleration method, which screened out unpromising core configurations. It has been demonstrated that the developed stochastic optimization method successfully finds the optimal core configuration regardless of the initial guess and outperforms the gradient descent approach. In addition, it has been observed that the use of a so-called out-in core configuration as the initial guess speeds up convergence of the iterative solution more than five times. Based on the searched optimum equilibrium cycle core configuration, new beginning-of-life (BOL) core configurations have been developed. In conclusion, the new BOL core configurations will be used in developing optimum refueling strategies.

Moltex static salt reactor↗

Scoping Analysis of Pebble-Bed Reactors for the Destruction of the Transuranic Inventory of LWR Spent Nuclear Fuel

With the forecasted increase in the construction and operation of nuclear reactors, there will be a corresponding increase in the quantity of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) that requires long-term storage. In SNF, transuranic isotopes contribute the most to the long-term radiotoxicity of the fuel and pose a proliferation risk. One option that has been explored to address these issues is the removal of the transuranic isotopes from SNF and the conversion of these isotopes into transuranic fuel (TRU fuel). Here, this work sought to determine how effective a micro-modular Pebble-Bed High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (PB-HTGR); the 10-MW High Temperature Gas-cooled Test Reactor (HTR-10); and a salt-cooled small-modular pebble-bed reactor (PBR), i.e. the generic Fluoride-cooled High-temperature Reactor (gFHR), are at reducing the inventory of transuranic isotopes while still maintaining the intrinsic safety features of the PBR designs, such as negative temperature coefficients of reactivity. Optimized pebble designs utilizing TRU fuel were found for both reactors through the adjustment for the packing fraction of fuel in each pebble. The Axial Zone Equilibrium Modeling (A-ZEM) method was used in this work to help select the optimized pebble design. Once an optimized pebble design was selected and an equilibrium model was produced, the results from the deep burn (DB) HTR-10 and gFHR designs were compared to the results of two models from the literature. While both the DB gFHR and the DB HTR-10 were able to reduce the weapons-usable transuranic inventory, the performance of these reactors did not match that of the small-modular PB-HTGRs in the literature. Therefore, a need was identified for further refinement of the gFHR design using TRU fuel, as the results for this model were more promising than those of the DB HTR-10, which was strongly limited by the high leakage intrinsic to micro-modular PB-HTGRs.

Transuranic fuel↗

ML-Based Pebble Power Reconstruction for Pebble Bed Reactor Analysis

Pebble power reconstruction has been explored to complement the conventional homogenized modeling approach in pebble bed reactor (PBR) analysis, as detailed heterogeneous geometry calculations are computationally expensive. The random distribution of pebble fuels within the core challenges the application of conventional pin power reconstruction methods. To address this, we introduce a machine learning approach based on the transformer model, composed of encoder and decoder layers, to estimate the flux and power form functions for reconstructing individual pebble neutron fluxes and powers. The homogeneous neutron flux distribution within each spectral zone (SZ) is obtained from finite element solutions of global diffusion or transport calculations. Verification tests demonstrate that the trained transformer model accurately predicts power form functions over a range of conditions, including variations in pebble enrichment, location, type, SZ size, and burnup. In particular, verification using a three-dimensional PBR benchmark with burned pebbles shows good agreement in heterogeneous pebble power distributions between Griffin and Serpent. These results highlight the potential of applying conventional pin power reconstruction approaches to PBR cores with randomly distributed pebbles.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

High temperature and pressure regime soot: Physical, optical and chemical signatures from high explosive detonations

Submicron particles are formed during the detonation and deflagration of carbon-rich energetic materials known as high explosives (HE) that can be lofted and transported long distances in the atmosphere. Particles include refractory species like soot, a.k.a. black carbon (BC), and have impacts to climate and human health at local, regional, and global scales. Here, we contrast detonation soot aerosol physical, optical and chemical properties that are formed more efficiently in terms of emission factors and ratios with traditional combustion sources from biomass burning and fossil fuels. We utilize ambient aerosol techniques for the first time to identify soot from two well-known HE's (1) Comp B-3: 40% trinitrotoluene (TNT) and 60% 1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazinane (RDX) and (2) PBX 9501: 95% 1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazoctane (HMX) with 2.5% Estane and a 2.5% mixture of bis(2,2-dinitropropyl)-acetal (BDNPA) and bis(2,2-dinitropropyl)-formal (BDNPF). Size distributions, optical and chemical properties are presented. Aggregate soot had small mobility diameters (<100 nm) and unique optical and chemical signatures depending on the explosive composite composition, detonation atmosphere (e.g., air, argon) and pressure. Single-scattering albedos (SSA) from 0.3 to 0.8 and absorption Angstrom exponents (AAE) from 0.5 to 2.0 measured across 405–870 nm wavelengths depended on the explosive composite composition and detonation conditions. Comp B-3 detonation soot was similar to other combustion soot sources, whereas PBX 9501 soot had high scattering relative to absorption. Carbonaceous chemical signatures included the presence of fullerenes that were distinct from ambient and laboratory-generated soot surrogates and the detection of trace metals, including aluminum, copper, iron, and zinc.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Realistic operation of two residential cordwood-fired outdoor hydronic heater appliances—Part 2: Particle number and size

The use of wood as a fuel for home heating is a concern from an environmental health and safety perspective as biomass combustion appliances emit high concentrations of particulate matter. Wood burning significantly contributes to wintertime particulate matter concentrations in many states in the northern United States. Of particular concern are outdoor wood-fired hydronic heaters. These devices are concerning as they tend to have very large combustion chambers and typical use patterns can result in long periods of low output, which result in an increased particulate matter emission rate relative to high heat output operating conditions. In this study, the performance of two hydronic heaters operating under different combustion conditions, including four different heat output categories approximately corresponding to categories I–IV denoted in Environmental Protection Agency Method 28 Outdoor Wood-fired Hydronic Heaters, and during start-up and reloading events were investigated. Measurements of flue gas particulate number concentration and size for particles with aerodynamic diameters between 0.006 and 10 µm were made using a dilution sampling system. The measured particle number concentration in the flue gas was between 0.71 and 420 million particles per cubic centimeter and was dependent on fuel loading and heat output. For each hydronic heater tested, the highest average particle concentration was found at the beginning of each test during the cold-start condition. Additionally, the majority of the particles had aerodynamic diameters less than 0.100 µm (particles of this size made up between 64% and 97% of all particles) and less than 1% of all particles had aerodynamic diameters greater than 1 µm for all phases. For particles in the accumulation mode, between 0.100 and 1 µm, the mean particle diameter was dependent on fuel loading and heat output.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Regional Economic Impacts of the Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Transition

To help mitigate greenhouse gas (GHGs) generation from burning fossil fuels, many state and local governments are requiring utilities to dramatically increase the share of electricity generated from renewable sources. The City of Los Angeles has set a target of 100% renewable energy by 2045 and has formulated a plan that considers nine potential alternative scenarios that differ by technology, location, and timing. Each scenario has a unique set of local investments, operating and maintenance (O&M) costs, and concomitant rate structures. In this study we develop and apply a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model built specifically for LA to estimate and compare the economic impacts for each of the scenarios over time relative to a reference case. We find differences in economic impacts across scenarios, depending on the level and timing of investment and O&M expenditures, as well as differences in the relative rate changes across scenarios. Results show that employment and economic output are positively correlated with greater capital and O&M spending, while higher electricity rates can dampen economic activity. Several scenarios generate positive economic impacts relative to the reference case, showing that the transition need not have harmful economic impacts, and all scenarios generate a number of other positive co-benefits, such as reduced damage to health from the reduction of ordinary air pollutants. The net employment impacts from 2026 to 2045 across the scenarios range from a low of 3,600 job-year losses annually to 4,700 job-year gains, both around only 0.1% of the baseline average annual employment in the city over that period. The analysis also indicates that lower-income households are relatively more affected than others by the scenarios. Overall, even in the most negatively impactful case, the economic output and employment effects are quite small when taken in the context of the overall size of the regional economy and the large reduction in GHGs.

economic impact modeling↗

Material Characterization of Hierarchical Tunable Pore Size Polymer Foams Used in the MARBLE Mix Morphology Experiment

One of the great challenges of inertial confinement fusion and high energy density experiments is understanding the effects of mix on thermonuclear burn. The MARBLE campaign, conceived at Los Alamos National Laboratory, aims to gather new insights into this issue by utilizing unique target capsules containing polymer foams of variable pore sizes, tunable over an order of magnitude. Such capsules allow the degree of initial heterogeneity to be controlled experimentally for the first time. Here, we describe the various characterization efforts used to gain understanding of the chemical structure and behavior of the foam. Previous experiments were not sensitive to foam physical properties, and the MARBLE platform has aided in the development of techniques to measure foam properties such as deuterium content, density variation, hydrogen adsorption, and pore size and volume distribution.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Improved Glow Discharge Polymer Removal from Beryllium Capsules Using Ozone

Copper-doped beryllium spheres are an attractive ablator for inertial confinement fusion experiments. Beryllium spheres are made by sputtering beryllium onto spherical plastic mandrels which must then be removed through a hole that is laser drilled through the shell wall. The currently used mandrel material is glow discharge polymer. This material cannot be removed by solvent and must be “burned” out. The burnout process was originally performed by etching with dry air at 425°C, but this process can substantially roughen the inner surface, which can seed instabilities and increase mix during implosion experiments. In this paper, we explore the use of pure oxygen and ozone to reduce process temperature and improve inner and outer surface quality.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Issues in Formation of Cryogenic Pellets for Fusion Applications

Cryogenic pellets are used for injection into fusion plasmas to add fuel to build up density and replace the ions lost from fusion reactions and imperfect confinement in the plasma. These pellets are formed at cryogenic temperatures with pure hydrogenic isotopes or mixtures of the isotopes. Technology to make these pellets and inject them into plasmas has been under development for many years, and various methods using freezing or desublimation have been shown to produce high-quality solid pellets suitable for injection. The throughput needed and possible impurity content from the necessary recirculation of fusion exhaust gases are two of the key issues to overcome for fusion pellet fueling systems in long-pulse burning plasmas. Here, we describe the technical challenges associated with these issues and the capability of pellet formation extruders to overcome them.Cryogenic pellets of deuterium, neon, and argon are also used in fusion tokamak devices for disruption mitigation in the form of large pellets that can be injected on demand to quickly dissipate the plasma thermal energy through radiation and add significant density in order to prevent runaway electron formation. Here, the issue is not throughput as with the fueling pellets but rather is the time it takes to form pellets of the size needed and the ability to dislodge them immediately on demand when needed to mitigate a disruption. The method used to make these pellets by desublimation is described, and examples related to how pellet size and input gas parameters affect the formation time are provided.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗