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High-resolution hourly surrogate modeling framework for physics-based large-scale building stock modeling

Surrogate modeling can play a key role in reducing high computational burdens for large-scale physics-based modeling and uncertainty quantification. With the rapid development of large-scale building stock energy modeling, surrogate modeling has also begun to be widely applied in this field; however, most existing surrogate models lack hourly time resolution for regional-scale modeling, which is essential for understanding building demand profiles and grid impacts. Further, there is generally a lack of necessary data and feature engineering frameworks specific to building modeling for efficiently managing large datasets and complex computations. Furthermore, this paper proposes a modeling framework for large-scale (city-/region-scale), high-resolution, high-fidelity surrogate building stock energy models. Our developed framework consists of six modules: (1) building stock energy modeling (ComStock TM and ResStock TM ), (2) data engineering for large simulation data, (3) high performance computing workflow, (4) feature engineering, (5) machine learning model development, and (6) model performance evaluation. Two case studies apply the developed framework in both residential and commercial building stock analysis to demonstrate its computational efficiency and surrogate modeling accuracies. Results show that surrogate models, when efficiently trained using the HPC workflow module, reach a high level of modeling accuracy for two case studies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

EnergyPlus-MCP: A model-context-protocol server for ai-driven building energy modeling

Traditional building energy modeling with the EnergyPlus building performance simulation engine requires domain expertise, programming skills, and intensive manual efforts limiting its effective adoption. This paper introduces EnergyPlus-MCP, the first open-source Model Context Protocol (MCP) server specifically designed for EnergyPlus simulation workflows, establishing a new foundational infrastructure for AI-driven building energy modeling. The MCP server implements a layered architecture with 35 specialized tools spanning model management, editing and analysis, HVAC and other systems configuration inspection, and simulation execution, enabling Large Language Models to interact with EnergyPlus through conversational interfaces. The server addresses critical workflow barriers by automating model validation, streamlining energy efficiency measures modification, and providing intelligent output management with interactive visualization. Through practical demonstrations using a multi-zone building retrofit analysis, we show how the EnergyPlus-MCP server significantly reduces manual efforts while maintaining full simulation rigor. By providing accessible natural language interfaces to sophisticated building energy analysis, this approach enables scalable deployment of simulation expertise across public and private organizations, educational institutions, and research teams, fundamentally transforming traditional building energy modeling practices.

AI↗

Optimal management program for asbestos containing building materials to be available in the event of a disaster

Highlights: • The safe management of asbestos is a matter of considerable importance. • There is a lack of literature concerning the development of a program for ACBMs. •A management program for the optimal disposal of ACBMs has been developed. • This program is also available in the event of a post-disaster. - Abstract: The safe management and disposal of asbestos is a matter of considerable importance. A large number of studies have been undertaken to quantify the issue of waste management following a disaster. Nevertheless, there have been few (if any) studies concerning asbestos waste, covering the amount generated, the cost of disposal, and the degree of hazard incurred. Thus, the current study focuses on developing a program for the management of Asbestos Containing Building Materials (ACBMs), which form the source of asbestos waste in the event of a disaster. The study will also discuss a case study undertaken in a specific region in Korea in terms of: (1) the location of ACBM-containing buildings; (2) types and quantities of ACBMs; (3) the cost of ACBM disposal; (4) the amount of asbestos fiber present during normal times and during post-disaster periods; (5) the required order in which ACBM-containing buildings should be dismantled; and (6) additional greenhouse gases generated during ACBM removal. The case study will focus on a specific building, with an area of 35.34 m{sup 2}, and will analyze information concerning the abovementioned points. In addition, the case study will focus on a selected area (108 buildings) and the administrative district (21,063 buildings). The significance of the program can be established by the fact that it visibly transmits information concerning ACBM management. It is a highly promising program, with a widespread application for the safe management and optimal disposal of asbestos in terms of technology, policy, and methodology.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Coupled Heat Power Operation of Smart Buildings via Modular Pumped Hydro Storage

In the United States, building sector is responsible for around 40% of total energy consumption and contributes about 40% of carbon emissions since 2012. Within the past several years, various optimization models and control strategies have been studied to improve buildings’ energy efficiency and reduce operational expenses under the constraints of satisfying occupants’ comfort requirements. However, the majority of these studies consider building electricity demand and thermal load being satisfied by unidirectional electricity flow from the power grid or on-site renewable energy generation to electrical and thermal home appliances. Opportunities for leveraging low-grade heat for electricity have largely been overlooked due to impracticality at small scale. In 2016, a modular pumped hydro storage technology was invented in Oak Ridge National Laboratory, named Ground Level Integrated Diverse Energy Storage (GLIDES). In GLIDES, employing high-efficiency hydraulic machinery instead of gas compressor/turbine, liquid is pumped to compress gas inside high-pressure vessel creating head on ground level. This unique design eliminates the geographical limitation associated with the existing state-of-the-art energy storage technologies. It is easy to be scaled for building level, community level, and grid level applications. By using this novel hydro-pneumatic storage technology, opportunities for leveraging low-grade heat in building can be economical. In this research, the potential of utilizing low-grade thermal energy to augment electricity generation of GLIDES is investigated. Since GLIDES relies on gas expansion in the discharge process and the gas temperature drops during this non-isothermal process, available thermal energy, e.g., from thermal storage, combined cooling, heat and power system (CCHP), can be utilized by GLIDES to counter the cooling effect of the expansion process and elevate the gas temperature and pressure and boost the roundtrip efficiency. Here, several groups of comparison experiments have been conducted, and the experimental results show that a maximum 12.9% cost saving could be achieved with unlimited heat source for GLIDES, and a moderate 3.8% cost improvement can be expected when operated coordinately with CCHP and thermal energy storage in a smart building.

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Mortar: An open testbed for portable building analytics

Access to large amounts of real-world data has long been a barrier to the development and evaluation of analytics applications for the built environment. Open data sets exist, but they are limited in their span (how much data is available) and context (what kind of data is available and how it is described). Evaluation of such analytics is also limited by how the analytics themselves are implemented, often using hard-coded names of building components, points and locations, or unique input data formats. To advance the methodology for how such analytics are implemented and evaluated, we present Mortar: an open testbed for portable building analytics, currently spanning 90 buildings and containing over 9.1 billion data points. All buildings in the testbed are described using Brick, a recently developed metadata schema, providing rich functional descriptions of building assets and subsystems. We also propose a simple architecture for writing portable analytics applications that are robust to the diversity of buildings and can configure themselves based on context. We demonstrate the utility of Mortar by implementing 11 applications from the literature.

data set↗

Mortar: An Open Testbed for Portable Building Analytics

Access to large amounts of real-world data has long been a barrier to the development and evaluation of analytics applications for the built environment. Open datasets exist, but they are limited in their span (how much data is available) and context (what kind of data is available and how it is described). Evaluation of such analytics is also limited by how the analytics themselves are implemented, often using hard-coded names of building components, points and locations, or unique input data formats. To advance the methodology for how such analytics are implemented and evaluated, we present Mortar: an open testbed for portable building analytics, currently spanning 90 buildings and containing over 9.1 billion data points. All buildings in the testbed are described using Brick, a recently developed metadata schema, providing rich functional descriptions of building assets and subsystems. We also propose a simple architecture for writing portable analytics applications that are robust to the diversity of buildings and can configure themselves based on context. We demonstrate the utility of Mortar by implementing 11 applications from the literature.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Summary of Building Protection Factor Studies for External Exposure to Ionizing Radiation

Radiation dose assessments are used to help inform decisions to minimize health risks in the event of an atmospheric release of radioactivity including, for example, from a Radiological Dispersal Device, an Improvised Nuclear Device detonation, or a Nuclear Power Plant accident. During these incidents, radiation dose assessments for both indoor and outdoor populations are needed to make informed decisions. These dose assessments inform emergency plans and decisions including, for example, identifying areas in which people should be sheltered and determining when controlled population evacuations should be made. US dose assessment methodologies allow consideration of the protection, and therefore dose reduction, that buildings provide their occupants. However, these methodologies require an understanding of the protection provided by various building types that is currently lacking. To help address this need, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in cooperation with Sandia National Laboratories and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, was tasked with (a) identifying prior building protection studies, (b) extracting results relevant to US building construction, and (c) summarizing building protection by building type. This report focuses primarily on the protection against radiation from outdoor fallout particles (external gamma radiation).

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

STTR Phase I: Low-Cost, High-Accuracy, Whole-Building Carbon Dioxide Monitoring for Demand Control Ventilation

This STTR Phase I project assessed the feasibility of a new CO 2 sensing system optimized for low-cost, high-accuracy, whole-building monitoring for use in demand control ventilation. The focus was on the development of a wireless networking platform and associated firmware to provide signal conditioning and conversion, fault- and disruptiontolerant networking, and multi-hop routing at building scales to avoid wiring costs. Early exploration of a bridge (or “gateway”) to direct digital control services was also explored. Results of the project contributed to an improved understanding of a new electrochemical sensor for monitoring indoor CO 2 concentrations, as well as the electronics and networking infrastructure required to deploy those sensors at building scales. New knowledge was acquired concerning the sensor’s accuracy, environmental response, and failure modes, and the acquisition electronics required to achieve accuracy over a wide range of CO 2 concentrations. The project demonstrated that the new sensor offers repeatable correspondence with commercial optical sensors, with supporting electronics that offer gain accuracy within 0.5%, and acquisition accuracy within 1.5% across three orders of magnitude variation in generated current. Considering production, installation, and maintenance costs, the technology presents a foundation for achieving whole-building CO 2 sensing at a price point below $0.066 / sq-ft – meeting economic feasibility criteria established by the Department of Energy. The technology developed under this award addresses obstacles on the critical path to enabling whole-building CO 2 sensing and demand control ventilation in commercial retrofits, small commercial buildings, residential complexes, and other highpotential structures that have been slow to adopt these technologies. It presents an opportunity to significantly reduce energy use throughout the United States.

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Integrating Health and Energy Efficiency in Multi-Family Buildings

The intersection between health and the built environment has long been known. Since the 18 th century, public health officials have been targeting building issues, such as crowding, poor sanitation, and inadequate ventilation in efforts to reduce infectious diseases and fire hazards. More recently, federal agencies, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, HUD, and the DOE have been working to reduce or eliminate indoor building factors that are known to have adverse health impacts on Americans, including reducing lead in housing and indoor air pollution that causes respiratory disease, and ensuring access to adequate heating, cooling, and moisture control. PNNL, in support of FEMP’s HBI, undertook a review of literature and existing best practices to identify current activities and research on the intersection between traditional energy-efficiency measures and occupant health within multi-family buildings. While the HBI methodology has focused on traditional office building spaces, it is now expanding into additional building use types. This overview explores some of the most impactful resources to help property owners and managers understand more about multi-family residential buildings that are both healthy and energy efficient. The federal government provides direct oversight and operation across several types of multi-family residential housing, including dormitories, barracks, and senior community living centers.

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Report Series: Finding of Effect and Mitigation Documentation for Building 23-W10, Mercury, Area 23, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

Finding of Effect: The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) plans to demolish Building 23-W10 in Mercury (Nevada State Historic Preservation Office [SHPO] Resource No. B15228), which is on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in Nye County, Nevada (Figure 1). The purpose of the undertaking is related to the modernization of Mercury for future mission needs. The NNSA/NFO will implement this undertaking in accordance with the Programmatic Agreement between the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Modernization and Operational Maintenance of the Nevada National Security Site, at Mercury in Nye County, Nevada, hereafter referred to as the Mercury PA. Building 23-W10, a supply warehouse, was installed in Mercury in 1962 (NNSS GIS Database) and served as a support facility for nuclear testing throughout much of the Cold War. It was likely produced during World War II (WWII) and previously installed at Camp Desert Rock. The town of Mercury and the immediate surrounding area have been formally determined eligible for listing in the National Register of Historic Places (National Register, NRHP) as the Mercury Historic District (MHD, SHPO Resource #D230) under Criteria A and C for their importance in supporting nuclear testing and scientific research from 1951 through 1992. Building 23-W10 was identified as a contributing element to the MHD in a 2018 architectural survey of the district (Reno et al. 2018) and recorded on a Nevada Architectural Resource Assessment (ARA) form (Reno et al. 2017). Building 23-W10 was also identified in Appendix C of the Mercury PA as a Category II contributing element. Category II properties are those that have several representatives in the MHD, such as warehouses, but may possess different engineering or architectural characteristics that distinguish them from other classes of similar elements. Building 23-W10 is a historic property for the purposes of compliance with Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA) and subject to the stipulations of the Mercury PA. Mitigation: The purpose of this letter report is to support the mitigation of the demolition of Building 23-W10 (Nevada State Historic Preservation Office [SHPO] Resource No. B15228) in the Mercury Historic District (MHD, SHPO Resource #D230) at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in Nye County, Nevada. The warehouse is considered contributing to the significance of the district both for its historic importance in relation to nuclear testing under Criterion A and as a part of the distinctive design and construction of the district under Criterion C. This submission is intended to comply with the stipulations in the Programmatic Agreement between the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Modernization and Operational Maintenance of the Nevada National Security Site, at Mercury in Nye County, Nevada, hereafter referred to as the Mercury PA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Report Series: Finding of Effect and Mitigation Documentation for Building 23-153, Mercury, Area 23, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

Finding of Effect: The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) plans to demolish Building 23-153, the Mechanical Calibration Laboratory (Calibration Lab), in Mercury (Nevada State Historic Preservation Office [SHPO] Resource No. B15271), which is on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in Nye County, Nevada. The purpose of the undertaking is related to the modernization of Mercury for future mission needs. The NNSA/NFO will implement this undertaking in accordance with the Programmatic Agreement between the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Modernization and Operational Maintenance of the Nevada National Security Site, at Mercury in Nye County, Nevada, hereafter referred to as the Mercury PA. Building 23-153 was constructed in Mercury in 1982 as the Mechanical Calibration Laboratory and served as a support facility for nuclear testing throughout the last decade of the Cold War. The town of Mercury and the immediate surrounding area have been formally determined eligible for listing in the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP) as the Mercury Historic District (MHD, SHPO Resource No. D230) under Criteria A and C for their importance in supporting nuclear testing and scientific research from 1951 through 1992. Building 23-153 was identified as a contributing element to the MHD in a 2018 architectural survey of the district (Reno et al. 2018) and recorded on a Nevada Architectural Resource Assessment (ARA) form (Reno et al. 2017). Building 23-153 was also identified in Appendix C of the Mercury PA as a Category II contributing element. Category II properties are those that have several representatives in the MHD but may possess different engineering or architectural characteristics that distinguish them from other classes of similar elements. Building 23-153 is a historic property for the purposes of compliance with Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA) and subject to the stipulations of the Mercury PA. Mitigation: The purpose of this letter report is to submit documentation related to the mitigation of the demolition of Building 23-153, the Mechanical Calibration Laboratory (Calibration Lab, Nevada State Historic Preservation Office [SHPO] Resource No. B15271), in the Mercury Historic District (MHD, SHPO Resource No. D230) at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in Nye County, Nevada. The Calibration Lab is considered contributing to the significance of the district both for its historic importance in relation to nuclear testing under Criterion A and as a part of the distinctive design and construction of the district under Criterion C. This submission is intended to comply with the stipulations in the Programmatic Agreement between the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Modernization and Operational Maintenance of the Nevada National Security Site, at Mercury in Nye County, Nevada, hereafter referred to as the Mercury PA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of Building 23-620, Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory J-3 Office, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) plans to demolish Building 23-620, the Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory (LASL) J-3 Office Building (Nevada State Historic Preservation Office [SHPO] Resource No. B15283) at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in Nye County, Nevada. The NNSA/NFO is implementing a long-term project to modernize the town of Mercury for future mission needs. The project is considered an undertaking subject to review under Title 54 of United States Code (USC) § 306108, commonly known as Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act, Title 54 USC § 300101, et seq., and its implementing regulations, Title 36 of the Code of Federal Regulations (36 CFR) Part 800. In 2018, Desert Research Institute (DRI) completed an architectural survey of the town of Mercury. This effort resulted in the identification, recordation, and evaluation of the Mercury Historic District (MHD, SHPO Resource No. D230), including the identification of its contributing elements (Reno et al. 2018). The MHD was recommended eligible for listing in the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP, National Register) under the Secretary of the Interior’s (SOI) Significance Criteria A and C, as defined in 36 CFR Part 60.4, as a significant concentration of buildings and structures with a direct and important association with Cold War-era nuclear testing from 1951 through 1992. It has not been evaluated under Criteria B and D to date. As part of a larger modernization program for Mercury, the NNSA/NFO and the SHPO executed the 2018 Programmatic Agreement between the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer regarding Modernization and Operational Maintenance of the Nevada National Security Site, at Mercury in Nye County, Nevada (Mercury PA). The Mercury PA includes streamlined Section 106 procedures for undertakings in the MHD based on contributing element categories. Building 23-620 is identified in Appendix C of the Mercury PA as a Category I contributing element, indicating that it might be individually eligible for the NRHP. It is a historic property for the purposes of Section 106 compliance and subject to the stipulations of the Mercury PA. Per Stipulation VI of the Mercury PA, when the Area of Potential Effect (APE) for an undertaking includes Category I elements, the NNSA/NFO must evaluate the Category I elements for individual NRHP eligibility under all of the SOI Significance Criteria prior to initiating any activity that may affect the elements. The purpose of this report is to evaluate Building 23-620 as a potential individually eligible historic property in fulfillment of Stipulation VI of the Mercury PA. The evaluation detailed herein concludes that Building 23-620 is not individually eligible for listing in the NRHP. Although it retains aspects of integrity and continues to contribute to the MHD, it is not individually significant under any of the SOI Significance Criteria.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Finding of Adverse Effect and Proposed Mitigation for the Demolition of Building 23-530, Mercury, Area 23, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) plans to demolish Building 23-530 in Mercury (Nevada State Historic Preservation Office [SHPO] Resource No. B15270), which is on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in Nye County, Nevada. The purpose of the undertaking is related to the modernization of Mercury for future mission needs. The NNSA/NFO will implement this undertaking in accordance with the Programmatic Agreement Between the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Modernization and Operational Maintenance of the Nevada National Security Site, at Mercury in Nye County, Nevada, hereafter referred to as the Mercury PA. Building 23-530, a dormitory called Freedom Hall, was constructed in Mercury in 1982 and served as a support facility for nuclear testing for the last decade of the Cold War. The town of Mercury and the immediate surrounding area have been determined eligible for listing in the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP) as the Mercury Historic District (MHD, SHPO Resource No. D230) under Criteria A and C for their importance in supporting nuclear testing and scientific research from 1951 through 1992 (Reed 2019). Building 23-530 was identified as a contributing element to the MHD in a 2018 architectural survey of the district (Reno et al. 2018) and recorded on a Nevada Architectural Resource Assessment (ARA) form (Reno et al. 2017). Building 23-530 was also identified in Appendix C of the Mercury PA as a Category II contributing element. Category II properties are those that have several representatives in the MHD but may possess different engineering or architectural characteristics that distinguish them from other classes of similar elements. Building 23-530 is a historic property for the purposes of compliance with Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA) and subject to the stipulations of the Mercury PA. The purpose of this letter report is to submit documentation related to the mitigation of the demolition of Building 23-530 (Nevada State Historic Preservation Office [SHPO] Resource No. B15270) in the Mercury Historic District (MHD, SHPO Resource No. D230) at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in Nye County, Nevada. The dormitory is considered contributing to the significance of the district both for its historic importance in relation to nuclear testing under Criterion A and as a part of the distinctive design and construction of the district under Criterion C. This submission is intended to comply with the stipulations in the Programmatic Agreement between the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Modernization and Operational Maintenance of the Nevada National Security Site, at Mercury in Nye County, Nevada, hereafter referred to as the Mercury PA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Equitable Strategies for Residential Building Energy Efficiency and Electrification in San José, California

Hotter summers, heat waves, wildfires, and droughts are already affecting San Jose residents, with historically marginalized communities impacted first and worst. The City of San Jose has ambitious goals to make the city climate-neutral by 2030 and serve as an example for cities to accelerate climate action around the world. Electrifying and decarbonizing residential buildings are important priorities to achieve San Jose's plans to reach carbon neutrality while enabling residents to live the "Good Life 2.0" - a vision that aligns with community-identified priorities of safety, health, freedom, community, and positive experiences. This technical assistance built upon the Electrify San Jose: Framework for Existing Building Electrification to identify actionable strategies to make single- and multi-family buildings both energy-efficient and all-electric. This report is intended to provide the San Jose Climate Smart team and their partners with relevant data, insights, and actionable analysis to aid in-depth and nuanced engagements with key stakeholders. In particular, the findings in this report highlight opportunities and challenges for San Jose City Council, residents, building owners, developers, financial institutions, and utility partners instrumental in building support and earning buy-in for energy efficiency and electrification upgrades in existing buildings.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Equitable Strategies for Residential Building Energy Efficiency and Electrification in San José, California [Slides]

Hotter summers, heat waves, wildfires, and droughts are already affecting San Jose residents, with historically marginalized communities impacted first and worst. The City of San Jose has ambitious goals to make the city climate-neutral by 2030 and serve as an example for cities to accelerate climate action around the world. Electrifying and decarbonizing residential buildings are important priorities to achieve San Jose's plans to reach carbon neutrality while enabling residents to live the "Good Life 2.0" - a vision that aligns with community-identified priorities of safety, health, freedom, community, and positive experiences. This technical assistance built upon the Electrify San Jose: Framework for Existing Building Electrification to identify actionable strategies to make single- and multi-family buildings both energy-efficient and all-electric. This report is intended to provide the San Jose Climate Smart team and their partners with relevant data, insights, and actionable analysis to aid in-depth and nuanced engagements with key stakeholders. In particular, the findings in this report highlight opportunities and challenges for San Jose City Council, residents, building owners, developers, financial institutions, and utility partners instrumental in building support and earning buy-in for energy efficiency and electrification upgrades in existing buildings.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Impacts of Model Building Energy Codes

The Department of Energy (DOE) Building Energy Codes Program (BECP) periodically evaluates national and state-level impacts associated with energy codes in residential and commercial buildings. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), funded by DOE, conducted an assessment of the prospective impacts of national model building energy codes from 2010 through 2040. A previous PNNL study evaluated the impact of the Building Energy Codes Program. A 2016 study looked more broadly at overall code impacts and this report describes the methodology used for the assessment and presents the impacts in terms of energy savings, consumer cost savings, and reduced emissions at the state level and at aggregated levels. In 2021, DOE conducted an interim and limited update to its 2016 study to evaluate potential building code updates using the 2016 methodology. That interim update includes estimated savings resulting from updates to the model energy codes, including the ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1-2016 (ASHRAE 90.1-2016) and 2019 editions, as well as the 2018 and 2021 International Energy Conservation Code (IECC). In 2023, DOE developed a fully updated report that includes code updates (ASHRAE 90.1-2019 and 2021 IECC), as well as additional enhancements and updates, including updated energy prices, annual floorspace additions, state code adoption dates, and emission factors, among others. This current version is another fully updated report that includes code updates (ASHRAE 90.1-2022 and 2024 IECC), as well as additional enhancements and updates, including updated energy prices, state code adoption dates, emission factors, and renewable energy contribution among others. Energy codes follow a three-phase cycle that starts with the development of a new model code, proceeds with the adoption of the new code by states and local jurisdictions, and finishes when the new code is implemented and builders, architects, and engineers are required to comply with the new provisions. The development of new model code editions creates the potential for increased energy savings. After a new model code is adopted, potential savings are realized in the field when new buildings (or additions and alterations) are constructed to comply with the new code. The contributions of all three phases are crucial to the overall impact of codes and are considered in this assessment. Figure ES.1 schematically describes the analysis framework. Energy savings are expressed in terms of energy use intensity (EUI) in the figure.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Machine Learning Based Metamodel for Faster Life Cycle Assessment of Large Portfolio of Buildings

Managing a large portfolio of buildings involves decisions on reuse, retrofit, renovation, rehabilitation, and new construction, influenced by trade-offs between performance metrics such as cost, time, and operational flexibility over the building's life cycle. Traditional life cycle assessment tools for evaluating these metrics can be labor- and compute-intensive, requiring extensive data and modeling for each building. Metamodels (or surrogate models) using machine learning have been explored as faster alternatives, but training these models has been hindered by the limited availability of comprehensive data on key life cycle metrics. Recent advancements in machine learning, particularly deep learning techniques like zero-shot and few-shot learning, allow models to learn from sparse or limited data. We propose a machine learning-based metamodel that leverages these techniques for rapid estimation of key building life cycle metrics. This presentation will cover the model architecture, data collection, training, and validation processes, along with an ongoing case study applied to a large portfolio of buildings. We will discuss the model's performance in terms of accuracy, compute time, limitations, and its potential for expanding to additional life cycle metrics. This data-driven approach offers a promising direction for the rapid evaluation of large building portfolios.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Identification Approach to Alleviate Effects of Unmeasured Heat Gains for MIMO Building Thermal Systems

It is important to have practical methods for constructing a good mathematical model for a building's thermal system for energy audits, retrofit analysis and advanced building controls, e.g. model predictive control. Identification approaches based on semi-physical model structures are popular in building science for those purposes. However conventional gray box identification approaches applied to thermal networks would fail when significant unmeasured heat gains present in estimation data. Although this situation is very common and practical, there has been little research to tackle this issue in building science. This paper presents an overall identification approach to alleviate influences of unmeasured disturbances, and hence to obtain improved gray-box building models. The approach was applied to an existing open space building and the performance is demonstrated.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗