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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

Climate Variability during the TRMM Era: Relationships between TRMM Precipitation and Upper-Tropospheric Hydrometeors

Tropical rainfall as seen by the TRMM radar has multiple scales of organization, one prominent example of which is mesoscale deep convection that supports the production of strong, widespread anvil systems important to the planet's water and energy balance. TRMM PR precipitation retrievals (i.e. the 2A25 algorithm) are reliable down to rates below 1.0 mm/h which captures the majority of near-surface rainfall. However, much of the precipitating hydrometeor mass above the freezing level in these anvil systems may be associated with particles where TRMM PR s/n is low. In out analysis we are examining the question of 'What portions of the total hydrometeor spectrum can we see individually with TRMM, CloudSat, high frequency passive microwave (e.g. AMSU-B, MHS) and MODIS'. This will allow us to pursue fundamental issues of precipitation, efficiency, maintenance of upper-troposheric humidity, and cloud forcing variability in the tropical climate system. We do this by generating frequency distributions of ice water content (IWC), integrated IWC (IWP), and precipitation as appropriate for these sensors and relate these to TRMM near-surface rainfall. Joint frequency distributions are developed from more limited coincidence between TRMM and these sensors. We interpret these results in terms of a climate regime descriptor and as an index of precipitation efficiency for tropical rain systems.

Robertson, Franklin↗

An Optimal Orthogonal Decomposition Method for Kalman Filter-Based Turbofan Engine Thrust Estimation

A new linear point design technique is presented for the determination of tuning parameters that enable the optimal estimation of unmeasured engine outputs, such as thrust. The engine's performance is affected by its level of degradation, generally described in terms of unmeasurable health parameters related to each major engine component. Accurate thrust reconstruction depends on knowledge of these health parameters, but there are usually too few sensors to be able to estimate their values. In this new technique, a set of tuning parameters is determined that accounts for degradation by representing the overall effect of the larger set of health parameters as closely as possible in a least squares sense. The technique takes advantage of the properties of the singular value decomposition of a matrix to generate a tuning parameter vector of low enough dimension that it can be estimated by a Kalman filter. A concise design procedure to generate a tuning vector that specifically takes into account the variables of interest is presented. An example demonstrates the tuning parameters ability to facilitate matching of both measured and unmeasured engine outputs, as well as state variables. Additional properties of the formulation are shown to lend themselves well to diagnostics.

Litt, Jonathan S.↗

Image Quality Indicator for Infrared Inspections

The quality of images generated during an infrared thermal inspection depends on many system variables, settings, and parameters to include the focal length setting of the IR camera lens. If any relevant parameter is incorrect or sub-optimal, the resulting IR images will usually exhibit inherent unsharpness and lack of resolution. Traditional reference standards and image quality indicators (IQIs) are made of representative hardware samples and contain representative flaws of concern. These standards are used to verify that representative flaws can be detected with the current IR system settings. However, these traditional standards do not enable the operator to quantify the quality limitations of the resulting images, i.e. determine the inherent maximum image sensitivity and image resolution. As a result, the operator does not have the ability to optimize the IR inspection system prior to data acquisition. The innovative IQI described here eliminates this limitation and enables the operator to objectively quantify and optimize the relevant variables of the IR inspection system, resulting in enhanced image quality with consistency and repeatability in the inspection application. The IR IQI consists of various copper foil features of known sizes that are printed on a dielectric non-conductive board. The significant difference in thermal conductivity between the two materials ensures that each appears with a distinct grayscale or brightness in the resulting IR image. Therefore, the IR image of the IQI exhibits high contrast between the copper features and the underlying dielectric board, which is required to detect the edges of the various copper features. The copper features consist of individual elements of various shapes and sizes, or of element-pairs of known shapes and sizes and with known spacing between the elements creating the pair. For example, filled copper circles with various diameters can be used as individual elements to quantify the image sensitivity limit. Copper line-pairs of various sizes where the line width is equivalent to the spacing between the lines can be used as element-pairs to quantify the image resolution limit.

Burke, Eric↗

Overview of NASA's MODIS and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) snow-cover Earth System Data Records

Knowledge of the distribution, extent, duration and timing of snowmelt is critical for characterizing the Earth's climate system and its changes. As a result, snow cover is one of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) essential climate variables (ECVs). Consistent, long-term datasets of snow cover are needed to study interannual variability and snow climatology. The NASA snow-cover datasets generated from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra and Aqua spacecraft and the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) are NASA Earth System Data Records (ESDR). The objective of the snow-cover detection algorithms is to optimize the accuracy of mapping snow-cover extent (SCE) and to minimize snow-cover detection errors of omission and commission using automated, globally applied algorithms to produce SCE data products. Advancements in snow-cover mapping have been made with each of the four major reprocessings of the MODIS data record, which extends from 2000 to the present. MODIS Collection 6 (C6) and VIIRS Collection 1 (C1) represent the state-of-the-art global snow cover mapping algorithms and products for NASA Earth science. There were many revisions made in the C6 algorithms which improved snow-cover detection accuracy and information content of the data products. These improvements have also been incorporated into the NASA VIIRS snow cover algorithms for C1. Both information content and usability were improved by including the Normalized Snow Difference Index (NDSI) and a quality assurance (QA) data array of algorithm processing flags in the data product, along with the SCE map.The increased data content allows flexibility in using the datasets for specific regions and end-user applications.Though there are important differences between the MODIS and VIIRS instruments (e.g., the VIIRS 375m native resolution compared to MODIS 500 m), the snow detection algorithms and data products are designed to be as similar as possible so that the 16C year MODIS ESDR of global SCE can be extended into the future with the S-NPP VIIRS snow products and with products from future Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) platforms.These NASA datasets are archived and accessible through the NASA Distributed Active Archive Center at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado.

Earth System Data Record↗

Aeroacoustic Computations of a Generic Low Boom Concept in Landing Configuration: Part 3 - Aerodynamic Validation and Noise Source Identification

Wind tunnel test data were used to validate the predicted aerodynamic behavior of a 15%-scale version of a generic, low-boom aircraft. The test was conducted in the NASA Langley 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel to determine the low-speed aerodynamic characteristics of the model. Measured steady surface pressures and global forces were used to validate predicted aerodynamic results obtained from high-fidelity simulations of the model as installed in the tunnel. Very good agreement between predicted and measured aerodynamic trends was demonstrated, providing the impetus to proceed with companion airframe noise simulations that were conducted in a free-air setting. Computed near-field flow variables acquired on a permeable data surface were used to generate synthetic pressure records for two 800-element phased microphone arrays positioned overhead and to the side of the model. The array data were beamformed to generate noise source localization maps for the clean model and several landing configurations. Primary and secondary airframe sources were identified and their relative strengths were determined. Far-field integrated noise spectra for the full aircraft, as well as individual components, were obtained from the source maps via integration of tailored regions. The analysis showed that noise produced by the landing gear was the dominant contributor to the far-field acoustic signature of the model, followed by flap noise. The effects of permeable data surface end caps, spatial resolution, array orientation, angle of attack, component interaction, velocity scaling, and numerical precision on synthetic far-field spectra were also evaluated.

low boom↗

Scalable Stochastic Transmission Expansion: A Use Case for ExaSGD

The intermittent nature of renewable energy poses new challenges for power grids due to its variable and un- certain power output. These features of renewable generation are becoming more relevant to transmission planning as grids reach higher penetration levels of renewable energy. In this paper we present an approach for transmission planning based on scalable computational approaches which enable the explicit consideration of operational uncertainties in the planning process. Using three-stage stochastic programming and the progressive hedging algorithm, we compute transmission expansion decisions on a modified RTS-GMLC test system. We augment the grid with large amounts of wind generation and consider many operational scenarios subject to wind uncertainty. This is an example of a possible use of the ExaSGD security constrained AC optimal power flow solver.

Exascale Computing Project↗

Probabilistic Forecast of All-Sky Solar Radiation Using Enhanced WRF-Solar: Preprint

This study presents enhancements of the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar) to provide probabilistic forecasts of solar radiation. Our approach builds ensemble WRF-Solar runs by introducing stochastic perturbations of variables that produce the largest uncertainties in predicting surface irradiance and clouds. The key variables are identified using tangent linear sensitivity analysis of six physics packages responsible for all-sky irradiance variability. An optimal strategy to stochastically perturb the selected variables is developed and applied to WRF-Solar to generate ensemble members for day-ahead solar prediction. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to validate the ensemble forecast at arbitrary locations on the model grid. Preliminary results indicate that the proposed technique can potentially produce WRF-Solar ensembles providing reliable information of solar prediction uncertainty. This study describes the implemented methodology and initial results as well as future research to improve ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts with WRF-Solar.

all-sky↗

Measurement of Charged-current Muon Neutrino–argon Interactions Without Final-state Pions Using the MicroBooNE Detector

This thesis presents a new high-statistics measurement of flux-integrated single- and double-differential cross sections for charged-current muon neutrino interactions on argon nuclei without final-state pions. The analysis utilizes the full 1.3 $\times$ $10^{21}$ protons-on-target dataset collected by the MicroBooNE liquid argon time projection chamber between 2015 and 2020 at Fermilab's Booster Neutrino Beam. The results of this study are reported with respect to final-state muon kinematic variables and compared with predictions from commonly used neutrino event generators. In one-dimensional distributions, all generators perform reasonably well. However, in two dimensions, only a few demonstrate good agreement with the data. These findings provide valuable insight into characterizing neutrino-nucleon interactions. Such advancements are vital for future long-baseline neutrino experiments, which aim to accurately measure neutrino oscillation and investigate beyond-the-Standard-Model physics with high sensitivity.

Englezos, Panagiotis [Rutgers U., Piscataway (main↗

Variability and Diversity Load Model Tool [SWR-20-03]

The motivation for the development of this tool and the underlying algorithms and methods was to enable the development of high-temporal resolution, realistic time-series data for quasi-static time-series (QSTS) analysis of distribution systems. Often, aggregated load profile data for a distribution circuit is available (e.g. feeder loading data collected via SCADA at the utility substation) and, while this data is typically accurate it masks the considerable variability of the 100’s or 1000’s of individual loads connected on the circuit. This tool was developed to model both the increased variability expected for these individual loads (e.g. the load of a single distribution transformer connected to 8-12 houses) and the expected diversity between loads on the circuit. It is important to note that the difference in variability and diversity, in the context of this tool, is that variability modeling only adds representative variability due to disaggregated load characteristics (e.g. the presence in the load profile of loads turning off and on like an air conditioner/oven) while the average energy profile remains the same as the user supplied power profile. Diversity modeling generates multiple individual load profiles which, in aggregate, sum to the user supplied power profile. Diversity is effectively variability in the energy usage over longer periods of time than seen in the variability model. Put another way, variability modeling supplies the expected variability due to the operation of various end-use loads and diversity modeling supplies the usage differences due to human behavior, schedules, etc. This load modeling tool was developed for use in generating data for distribution systems. Modeling is summarized by two major functions: 1) taking low resolution load profiles and adding intra-seconds variability onto the profiles, and 2) taking a user supplied load profile and distribution factors and adding both diversity and variability to the user supplied profile.

Zhu, Xiangqi↗

Stochastic scheduling of generating units with weekly energy storage: A hybrid decomposition approach

We propose a solution method for the large-scale stochastic unit commitment (SUC) problem with weekly-dispatched energy storage and significant weather-dependent stochastic generating capacity. Weekly storage facilities that mostly charge during weekends and discharge during weekdays require a weekly scheduling of generating units, which result in a large-scale optimization problem. This SUC problem is formulated as a two-stage stochastic model and we use the conditional value-at-risk as a risk measure. Using a Benders framework, the proposed solution method decomposes the problem into a mixed-integer linear master problem and linear and continuous subproblems. The master problem corresponds to the first-stage decisions throughout the week and includes all the commitment (binary) variables and their corresponding constraints. The subproblems correspond to the actual dispatch of the generating units on a weekly basis. Based on the success of column-and-constraint generation algorithms to solve robust optimization problems, we improve the low communication between the master problem and the subproblems in the standard Benders decomposition by adding primal variables and constraints from the subproblems to the master problem, which provides a better approximation of the recourse function. Furthermore, our computational experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed decomposition method using an instance of the South Carolina synthetic system with 90 generating units under 40 scenarios.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Downscaled CMIP5 projections of physical fire risk understate historical trends

Reliable projections of wildfire risk are important for multi-sector impacts analysis. Statistically downscaled and bias-corrected Earth system model ensemble products are routinely used to analyze regional physical wildfire risk, but evaluations of historical observed trends and variability are lacking. Here, we evaluate physical fire risk over the western United States using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) by comparing model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), statistically downscaled via the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) approach, against the observational target dataset gridMET, a gridded high-resolution surface meteorological product. We analyze multidecadal trends and interannual variability in seasonal average FWI for the historical period and future projections under two emissions scenarios, and we compare MACA-CMIP5 ensemble results with a simple time series model that generates historical and future projections of seasonal FWI based on bootstrapping observed historical trends and variability. Our findings indicate that MACA-CMIP5 accurately captures the magnitude and spatial patterns of seasonally averaged FWI but tends to underestimate historical decadal trends. We show that future increases in fire risk may be underestimated relative to the simple time series model that projects historical variability into the future. We also highlight that model biases in relative humidity contribute significantly to model-data differences. Our results underscore the importance of historical hindcasting exercises for informing broader multi-sector applications.

FWI↗

Investigation of a catalytic gas generator for the Space Shuttle APU

An investigation was conducted to establish the capability of a monopropellant hydrazine catalytic gas generator to meet the requirements specified for the Space Shuttle APU. Detailed analytical and experimental studies were conducted on potential problem areas including long-term nitriding effects on materials, design variables affecting catalyst life, vehicle vibration effects, and catalyst oxidation/contamination. A full-scale gas generator, designed to operate at a chamber pressure of 750 psia and a flow rate of 0.36 lbm/sec, was fabricated and subjected to three separate life test series. The objective of the first test series was to demonstrate the capability of the gas generator to successfully complete 20 simulated Space Shuttle missions in steady-state operation. The gas generator was then refurbished and subjected to a second series of tests to demonstrate the pulse-mode capability of the gas generator during 20 simulated missions. The third series of tests was conducted with a refurbished reactor to further demonstrate pulse-mode capability with a modified catalyst bed.

Emmons, D. L.↗

Second-generation downscaled earth system model data using generative machine learning

The second-generation Sup3rCC dataset provides high-resolution meteorological data generated through the downscaling of multiple earth system models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This downscaling is performed through application of a generative machine learning approach called Super-Resolution for Renewable Resource Data (sup3r). This dataset builds on the first-generation Sup3rCC data by applying improved bias correction methods and adding downscaled precipitation to the output variables. As with the first Sup3rCC version, the data still include temperature, wind speed and direction at multiple heights, pressure, three components of downwelling solar radiation, and relative humidity—all at 4-kilometer (km) hourly resolution over the contiguous United States. This is a 25x spatial enhancement and 24x temporal enhancement of the source 100-km daily-average ESM data. This extension of the Sup3rCC dataset includes data from six ESMs from two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) totaling 400 years of data with multiple future projections of changing meteorological conditions. The scenario selection was based on a structured evaluation of historical ESM skill and comprehensive representation of possible trajectories of future climate change in temperature, humidity, precipitation, solar irradiance, and near-surface wind speeds. The inclusion of multiple future projections is intended to enable users to assess key drivers of un 36 certainty and variability. All data are double-bias corrected, resulting in a product that can be used out-of-the-box for energy system analysis with minimal historical bias. The potential applications of Sup3rCC data extend to various topics in renewable energy resource assessment, energy systems modeling, and grid resilience studies. High-resolution future meteorological projections are critical for evaluating the effects of changing meteorological conditions on renewable energy generation, energy demand, and for optimizing energy storage and grid infrastructure. The 4-km hourly resolution of the downscaled data enables understanding of spatial and temporal variability at the scales necessary for energy system operational planning. In addition, the dataset can support risk assessments by providing detailed information on possible future extreme weather events and long-term meteorological variability at scales relevant to energy infrastructure. By offering an enhanced representation of possible future meteorological conditions, the second-generation Sup3rCC dataset enables more precise modeling of energy resilience and adaptation strategies in response to changing meteorological conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Numerical algorithms for water waves with background flow over obstacles and topography

Abstract We present two accurate and efficient algorithms for solving the incompressible, irrotational Euler equations with a free surface in two dimensions with background flow over a periodic, multiply connected fluid domain that includes stationary obstacles and variable bottom topography. One approach is formulated in terms of the surface velocity potential while the other evolves the vortex sheet strength. Both methods employ layer potentials in the form of periodized Cauchy integrals to compute the normal velocity of the free surface, are compatible with arbitrary parameterizations of the free surface and boundaries, and allow for circulation around each obstacle, which leads to multiple-valued velocity potentials but single-valued stream functions. We prove that the resulting second-kind Fredholm integral equations are invertible, possibly after a physically motivated finite-rank correction. In an angle-arclength setting, we show how to avoid curve reconstruction errors that are incompatible with spatial periodicity. We use the proposed methods to study gravity-capillary waves generated by flow around several elliptical obstacles above a flat or variable bottom boundary. In each case, the free surface eventually self-intersects in a splash singularity or collides with a boundary. We also show how to evaluate the velocity and pressure with spectral accuracy throughout the fluid, including near the free surface and solid boundaries. To assess the accuracy of the time evolution, we monitor energy conservation and the decay of Fourier modes and compare the numerical results of the two methods to each other. We implement several solvers for the discretized linear systems and compare their performance. The fastest approach employs a graphics processing unit (GPU) to construct the matrices and carry out iterations of the generalized minimal residual method (GMRES).

Ambrose, David M.↗

A Bayesian inferencing framework for ultrasound wave speed measurements in metal additive manufacturing

Process-related changes during metal additive manufacturing introduce microstructural variability in the material properties of printed parts, directly affecting component reliability. Accurate estimation of these property variations with part performance are essential for quality assurance. Ultrasound testing offers a non-destructive means to estimate mechanical properties and detect defects; however, conventional analysis methods often neglect the influence of microstructural variability, limiting their effectiveness. Here, this research presents a Bayesian inference technique for quantifying wave speed uncertainty from ultrasound measurements of metal additive manufactured parts. By integrating prior ultrasound data with a Bayesian model, the proposed approach generates posterior density estimates of wave speed that systematically account for manufacturing-induced variability and uncertainty. The novelty of this research lies in applying a Bayesian framework to analyze experimental ultrasound measurements within the context of metal additive manufacturing variability. The method enhances the accuracy of wave speed estimation by 64%, defect position by 50% and increases confidence associated with wave speed variance by 30% across different porosity levels, thereby providing a robust foundation for improved decision-making and increased reliability in additively manufactured components.

Additive manufacturing↗

Hyperspectral Mapping of the Invasive Species Pepperweed and the Development of a Habitat Suitability Model

Mapping and predicting the spatial distribution of invasive plant species is central to habitat management, however difficult to implement at landscape and regional scales. Remote sensing techniques can reduce the impact field campaigns have on these ecologically sensitive areas and can provide a regional and multi-temporal view of invasive species spread. Invasive perennial pepperweed (Lepidium latifolium) is now widespread in fragmented estuaries of the South San Francisco Bay, and is shown to degrade native vegetation in estuaries and adjacent habitats, thereby reducing forage and shelter for wildlife. The purpose of this study is to map the present distribution of pepperweed in estuarine areas of the South San Francisco Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project (Alviso, CA), and create a habitat suitability model to predict future spread. Pepperweed reflectance data were collected in-situ with a GER 1500 spectroradiometer along with 88 corresponding pepperweed presence and absence points used for building the statistical models. The spectral angle mapper (SAM) classification algorithm was used to distinguish the reflectance spectrum of pepperweed and map its distribution using an image from EO-1 Hyperion. To map pepperweed, we performed a supervised classification on an ASTER image with a resulting classification accuracy of 71.8%. We generated a weighted overlay analysis model within a geographic information system (GIS) framework to predict areas in the study site most susceptible to pepperweed colonization. Variables for the model included propensity for disturbance, status of pond restoration, proximity to water channels, and terrain curvature. A Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was also used to generate a probability map and investigate the statistical probability that each variable contributed to predict pepperweed spread. Results from the GAM revealed distance to channels, distance to ponds and curvature were statistically significant (p < 0.01) in determining the locations of suitable pepperweed habitats.

Pepperweed↗

High-dimensional control co-design of a wave energy converter with a novel pitch resonator power takeoff system

Researchers are exploring adding wave energy converters to existing oceanographic buoys to provide a predictable source of renewable power. A ”pitch resonator” power take-off system has been developed that generates power using a geared flywheel system designed to match resonance with the pitching motion of the buoy. However, the novelty of the concept leaves researchers uncertain about various design aspects of the system. This work presents a novel design study of a pitch resonator to inform design decisions for an upcoming deployment of the system. The assessment uses control co-design via WecOptTool to optimize control trajectories for maximal electrical power production while varying five design parameters of the pitch resonator. Given the large search space of the problem, the control trajectories are optimized within a Monte Carlo analysis to identify optimal designs, followed by parameter sweeps around the optimum to identify trends between the design parameters. The gear ratio between the pitch resonator spring and flywheel are found to be the most sensitive design variables to power performance. Finally, the assessment also finds similar power generation for various sizes of resonator components, suggesting that correctly designing for optimal control trajectories at resonance is more critical to the design than component sizing.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS): Global Ensemble Landslide Hazard Modelling

In this study we present a model for the global Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS). PHELS estimates the daily hazard of hydrologically triggered landslides at a coarse spatial resolution of 36 km, by combining landslide susceptibility (LSS) and (percentiles of) hydrological variable(s). The latter include daily rainfall, a 7-day antecedent rainfall index (ARI7) or root-zone soil moisture content (rzmc) as hydrological predictor variables, or the combination of rainfall and rzmc. The hazard estimates with any of these predictor variables have areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) above 0.68. The best performance was found with combined rainfall and rzmc predictors (AUC = 0.79), which resulted in the lowest number of missed alarms (especially during spring) and false alarms. Furthermore, PHELS provides hazard uncertainty estimates by generating ensemble simulations based on repeated sampling of LSS and the hydrological predictor variables. The estimated hazard uncertainty follows the behaviour of the input variable uncertainties, is about 13.6 % of the estimated hazard value on average across the globe and in time and is smallest for very low and very high hazard values.

Anne Felsberg↗