Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “variability study”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,009 records · Page 56
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2001

Decadal-Interdecadal SST Variability and Regional Climate Teleconnections

Dominant modes of decadal and interdecadal SST variability and their impacts on summertime rainfall variability over East Asia and the North America are studied. Two dominant modes of interdecadal SST variability, one associated with El Nino-like warming in the global oceans and one with an east-west seesaw variation in the equatorial Pacific have been identified. The first mode is associated in part with a long-term warming trend in the topical oceans and cooling over the northern Pacific. The second mode suggests an westward shift and strengthening of the Walker circulation from 1960s to the 1980s. Over East Asian, the first SST mode is correlated with reduced rainfall in northern China and excessive rainfall in central China. This SST mode is also associated with the tendency for increased rainfall over the midwest region, and reduced rainfall over the east Coast of the US. The results suggest a teleconnection pattern which links the occurrences of drought and floods over the Asian monsoon and the US summertime time climate. This teleconnection is likely to be associated with decadal variability of the East Asian jetstream, which are affected by strong land surface heating over the Siberian region, as well as El Nino-like SST forcings. The occurrences of major droughts and floods in the East Asian and US continent in recent decades are discussed in light of the above teleconnection patterns.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Causes of Interannual to Decadal Variability of Gila River Streamflow over the Past Century

Study region: The Gila River, New Mexico, is characterized by two peaks in streamflow: one in the winter-spring (December-May), and summer (August-September). The region is influenced both by Pacific SST variability as well as the North American Monsoon. Study focus: The mechanisms responsible for the variability of the winter-spring and summer streamflow peaks are investigated by correlation of streamflow with precipitation and sea surface temperature for 1928-2012. Decadal variability in the flow record is examined for a longer term perspective on Gila River streamflow using tree ring-based reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). New hydrological insights for the region: Results indicate a strong influence of winter-spring precipitation and Pacific SST anomalies on the winter-spring streamflow, with El Nino conditions in the Pacific causing increased precipitation and streamflow. Decadal Pacific variability helps explain the transition from high winter flow in the late 20th century to lower flows in the most recent decade. The summer streamflow has a somewhat weaker correlation with precipitation and Pacific SST than the winter-spring streamflow. Its variability is more likely influenced by local North American Monsoon precipitation variability. PDSI and SPI reconstructions indicate much more severe and extended periods of droughts and pluvials in past centuries as well as periods of concurrent winter and summer drought.

drought↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity analysis of homogenized cross section in AP1000 lattices

The two-step method for light water reactor simulation consists of performing lattice-level calculations to determine homogenized properties of the lattice for a variety of configurations and burnups then performing a core-level calculation which relies on those pre-calculated lattice properties. Calculating the homogenized lattice properties for the specific conditions needed in the core-level calculation relies on interpolating from the pre-calculated lattice properties. Although many studies have explored different models that can be used for this interpolation, there is a need to explore how to appropriately parameterize the lattice for those interpolation models. The present study uses linear sensitivity methods to determine the sensitivity of homogenized cross sections to both instantaneous and historical values of state variables. The results from this study can be used to inform parameterizations which more appropriately capture history effects in homogenized cross section interpolation. Two different lattices are used for this analysis from the AP1000 reactor, one includes burnable absorbers. It was found that early in the cycle, the historical values of state variables have little effect on the instantaneous value of the homogenized cross sections explored here - especially in the case of the lattice containing burnable absorbers. However, it was found that later in the cycle, the thermal fission homogenized cross section was sensitive to the historic states of the lattice. In fact, using the average of a state variable as a predictor for interpolation models may be insufficient for capturing historic effects due to more recent states having larger sensitivity measures than less recent states. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS2016

Precipitation and Carbon-Water Coupling Jointly Control the Interannual Variability of Global Land Gross Primary Production

Carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems is increasing along with the rising of atmospheric CO2 concentration. Embedded in this trend, recent studies suggested that the interannual variability (IAV) of global carbon fluxes may be dominated by semi-arid ecosystems, but the underlying mechanisms of this high variability in these specific regions are not well known. Here we derive an ensemble of gross primary production (GPP) estimates using the average of three data-driven models and eleven process-based models. These models are weighted by their spatial representativeness of the satellite-based solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF). We then use this weighted GPP ensemble to investigate the GPP variability for different aridity regimes. We show that semi-arid regions contribute to 57% of the detrended IAV of global GPP. Moreover, in regions with higher GPP variability, GPP fluctuations are mostly controlled by precipitation and strongly coupled with evapotranspiration (ET). This higher GPP IAV in semi-arid regions is co-limited by supply (precipitation)-induced ET variability and GPP-ET coupling strength. Our results demonstrate the importance of semi-arid regions to the global terrestrial carbon cycle and posit that there will be larger GPP and ET variations in the future with changes in precipitation patterns and dryland expansion.

chlorophyll fluorescence↗
DOE OSTI2022

The impact of multi-sensor land data assimilation on river discharge estimation

River discharge is one of the most critical renewable water resources. Accurately estimating river discharge with land surface models (LSMs) remains challenging due to the difficulty in estimating land water storages such as snow, soil moisture, and groundwater. While data assimilation (DA) ingesting optical, microwave, and gravity measurements from space can help constrain theses storage states, its impacts on runoff and eventually river discharge are not fully understood. In this study, by taking advantage of recently published land DA results that jointly assimilate eight different combinations of observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E), we quantify to what degree multi-sensor land DA improves the river discharge simulation skills over 40 global river basins, and investigate the complementary strengths of different satellite measurements on river discharge. To be more specific, river discharge is updated by feeding gridded runoff from the eight multi-sensor DA simulations into a vector-based river routing model named the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID). Our modeling results, including 7-year simulations at 177,458 river reaches globally, are used to study the seasonal to interannual variability of river discharge. It is found that assimilating GRACE has the greatest impact on global runoff patterns, leading to the most pronounced improvements in spatial river discharge in the middle and high latitudes with the R 2 increased by 0.16. The seasonal variation of spatial discharge is most skillful during the boreal summer. However, our evaluation also shows model and DA still struggle to generate reasonable variability and averaged discharge over permafrost regions. Finally, by assessing how different satellites add value to discharge forecasts, this study paves the way for more advanced multi-sensor satellite data assimilation to predict the terrestrial hydrological cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1987

EX56a study of extended X-ray emission around isolated galaxies EX56b identification and spectra of bright X-ray sources at high galactic latitude

The EXOSAT observations confirmed the identification and extended nature of PKS 2345-35. It gave a good 2 to 10 keV X-ray spectrum and a detailed spatial profile indicating asymmetry of the structure. In the high galactic latitidue investigation, the BL Lac object identified with the HEAO-1 source 1430+423 was detected, and the first X-ray spectrum was obtained. Several simulataneous observations of H0323+022 were obtained over a broad range of electromagnetic spectrum. Studies of luminous active galactic nuclei have given significant information on the spectrum of the quasar PKS 0558-504. In a study of Southern sky cataclysmic variables, the EXOSAT was used to determine the X-ray spectrum and search for periodicities in two objects. Studies of complete identifications have revealed that X-ray sources in two high galactic latitude fields are stars, and therefore are to be excluded from the Piccinotti extragalactic sample. Only one Piccinotti source remains to be identified.

Schwartz, Daniel A.↗
NASA NTRS1930

Investigation of air flow in open-throat wind tunnels

Tests were conducted on the 6-inch wind tunnel of the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics to form a part of a research on open-throat wind tunnels. The primary object of this part of the research was to study a type of air pulsation which has been encountered in open-throat tunnels, and to find the most satisfactory means of eliminating such pulsations. In order to do this it was necessary to study the effects of different variable on all of the important characteristics of the tunnel. This paper gives not only the results of the study of air pulsations and methods of eliminating them, but also the effects of changing the exit-cone diameter and flare and the effects of air leakage from the return passage. It was found that the air pulsations in the 6-inch wind tunnel could be practically eliminated by using a moderately large flare on the exit cone in conjunction with leakage introduced by cutting holes in the exit cone somewhat aft of its minimum diameter.

Jacobs, Eastman N↗
NASA NTRS2022

The Importance of Internal Climate Variability in Climate Impact Projections

Uncertainty in climate projections is driven by three components: scenario uncertainty, intermodel uncertainty, and internal variability. Although socioeconomic climate impact studies increasingly take into account the first two components, little attention has been paid to the role of internal variability, although underestimating this uncertainty may lead to underestimating the socioeconomic costs of climate change. Using large ensembles from seven coupled general circulation models with a total of 414 model runs, we partition the climate uncertainty in classic dose–response models relating county-level corn yield, mortality, and per-capita gross domestic product to temperature in the continental United States. The partitioning of uncertainty depends on the time frame of projection, the impact model, and the geographic region. Internal variability represents more than 50% of the total climate uncertainty in certain projections, including mortality projections for the early 21st century, although its relative influence decreases over time. We recommend including uncertainty due to internal variability for many projections of temperature-driven impacts, including early-century and midcentury projections, projections in regions with high internal variability such as the Upper Midwest United States, and impacts driven by nonlinear relationships.

climate impacts↗
NASA NTRS2012

Simulation of the Intraseasonal Variability over the Eastern Pacific ITCZ in Climate Models

During boreal summer, convective activity over the eastern Pacific (EPAC) inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) exhibits vigorous intraseasonal variability (ISV). Previous observational studies identified two dominant ISV modes over the EPAC, i.e., a 40-day mode and a quasi-biweekly mode (QBM). The 40-day ISV mode is generally considered a local expression of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. However, in addition to the eastward propagation, northward propagation of the 40-day mode is also evident. The QBM mode bears a smaller spatial scale than the 40-day mode, and is largely characterized by northward propagation. While the ISV over the EPAC exerts significant influences on regional climate/weather systems, investigation of contemporary model capabilities in representing these ISV modes over the EPAC is limited. In this study, the model fidelity in representing these two dominant ISV modes over the EPAC is assessed by analyzing six atmospheric and three coupled general circulation models (GCMs), including one super-parameterized GCM (SPCAM) and one recently developed high-resolution GCM (GFDL HIRAM) with horizontal resolution of about 50 km. While it remains challenging for GCMs to faithfully represent these two ISV modes including their amplitude, evolution patterns, and periodicities, encouraging simulations are also noted. In general, SPCAM and HIRAM exhibit relatively superior skill in representing the two ISV modes over the EPAC. While the advantage of SPCAM is achieved through explicit representation of the cumulus process by the embedded 2-D cloud resolving models, the improved representation in HIRAM could be ascribed to the employment of a strongly entraining plume cumulus scheme, which inhibits the deep convection, and thus effectively enhances the stratiform rainfall. The sensitivity tests based on HIRAM also suggest that fine horizontal resolution could also be conducive to realistically capture the ISV over the EPAC, particularly for the QBM mode. Further analysis illustrates that the observed 40-day ISV mode over the EPAC is closely linked to the eastward propagating ISV signals from the Indian Ocean/Western Pacific, which is in agreement with the general impression that the 40-day ISV mode over the EPAC could be a local expression of the global Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). In contrast, the convective signals associated with the 40-day mode over the EPAC in most of the GCM simulations tend to originate between 150degE and 150degW, suggesting the 40-day ISV mode over the EPAC might be sustained without the forcing by the eastward propagating MJO. Further investigation is warranted towards improved understanding of the origin of the ISV over the EPAC.

Intraseasonal Variability↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Nonstationary and Non-Gaussian Moving Average Model for Solar Irradiance

Historically, power has flowed from large power plants to customers. Increasing penetration of distributed energy resources such as solar power from rooftop photovoltaic has made the distribution network a two-way-street with power being generated at the customer level. The incorporation of renewables introduces additional uncertainty and variability into the power grid. Distribution network operation studies are being adapted to include renewables; however, such studies require high quality solar irradiance data that adequately reflect realistic meteorological variability. Data from satellite-based products are spatially complete, but temporally coarse, whereas solar irradiances exhibit high frequency variation at very fine timescales. We propose a new stochastic method for temporally downscaling global horizontal irradiance (GHI) to 1 min resolution, but we do not consider the spatial aspect due to limited availability of the in situ irradiance measurements. Solar irradiance's first and second-order structures vary diurnally and seasonally, and our model adapts to such nonstationarity. Empirical irradiance data exhibits highly non-Gaussian behavior; we develop a nonstationary and non-Gaussian moving average model that is shown to capture realistic solar variability at multiple timescales. We also propose a new estimation scheme based on Cholesky factors of empirical autocovariance matrices, bypassing difficult and inaccessible likelihood-based approaches. The model is demonstrated for a case study of three locations that are located in diverse climates through the United States. The model is compared against competitors from the literature and is shown to provide better uncertainty and variability quantification on testing data.

Cholesky factor↗
DOE OSTI2022

Measurements of the groomed and ungroomed jet angularities in pp collisions at $ \sqrt{s}$ = 5.02 TeV

The jet angularities are a class of jet substructure observables which characterize the angular and momentum distribution of particles within jets. These observables are sensitive to momentum scales ranging from perturbative hard scatterings to nonperturbative fragmentation into final-state hadrons. We report measurements of several groomed and ungroomed jet angularities in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 5.02 TeV with the ALICE detector. Jets are reconstructed using charged particle tracks at midrapidity (|η| < 0.9). The anti-$k_T$ algorithm is used with jet resolution parameters R = 0.2 and R = 0.4 for several transverse momentum $p^{ch jet}_{T}$ intervals in the 20–100 GeV/c range. Using the jet grooming algorithm Soft Drop, the sensitivity to softer, wide-angle processes, as well as the underlying event, can be reduced in a way which is well-controlled in theoretical calculations. We report the ungroomed jet angularities, λ α , and groomed jet angularities, λ α,g , to investigate the interplay between perturbative and nonperturbative effects at low jet momenta. Various angular exponent parameters α = 1, 1.5, 2, and 3 are used to systematically vary the sensitivity of the observable to collinear and soft radiation. Results are compared to analytical predictions at next-to-leading-logarithmic accuracy, which provide a generally good description of the data in the perturbative regime but exhibit discrepancies in the nonperturbative regime. Moreover, these measurements serve as a baseline for future ones in heavy-ion collisions by providing new insight into the interplay between perturbative and nonperturbative effects in the angular and momentum substructure of jets. They supply crucial guidance on the selection of jet resolution parameter, jet transverse momentum, and angular scaling variable for jet quenching studies.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogen uptake in graphite matrix at high temperature

Tritium management is a critical challenge for the next generation of nuclear reactors, such as Fluoride Salt Cooled High Temperature Reactors (FHRs) and High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGRs), due to the higher production rate (up to 10,000 times) than conventional Light Water Reactors (LWRs). Graphitic materials employed as moderator, reflector, and fuel pebbles offer a potential pathway for tritium recovery by serving as a sink for tritium. Prediction of uptake capacity under reactor relevant conditions remains a challenge due to a lack of low partial pressure data and significant inter-grade variability of graphite. This study addresses these gaps by providing a comprehensive characterization of hydrogen (as a tritium surrogate) uptake and release behavior in the A3-3 graphite matrix (GM) used in fuel pebbles. Uptake measurements are performed at reactor relevant temperatures of 600- 800 °C, 1-200 Torr hydrogen pressure, and 15-120 min equilibration time, followed by thermal desorption spectroscopy up to 1100 °C. Uptake experiments at different equilibration times demonstrate the role of kinetics in hydrogen uptake, which can be modeled as a diffusion-with-trapping process. In the thermodynamics limit, the Sips adsorption model is shown to capture the uptake in A3-3 GM well. Our campaign provides a set of new results for hydrogen uptake in A3-3, including limiting uptake capacity at 600 °C, apparent diffusion coefficient at 600 °C, and the first estimates of the FHR/HTGR relevant (600 °C, 20 Pa partial pressure) equilibrium uptake capacity and time to saturation. Desorption data highlights a new site for hydrogen uptake, not observed in nuclear graphite, which we attribute to the non-graphitized binder. Using the Kissinger method, we estimate activation energy for release from the desorption peaks, confirming the activation energy for release from the basal planes and providing the first estimate for the activation energy of release from the binder.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A systematic approach to resolve high impedance of multifunctional energy storage composites

Previous work has proposed and characterized the structural and electrical performance of Multifunctional Energy Storage Composite (MESC) structures: structural elements with embedded lithium-ion batteries which were developed by the Structures and Composite Laboratory (SACL) at Stanford University. This work conducts a comprehensive parametric study over the design variables in the manufacturing process to determine the root cause of increased DC impedance compared to commercial pouch cell batteries. Several MESC samples were assembled under various controlled environmental temperatures and pressures. The samples underwent Hybrid Peak Pulse Characterization (HPPC) to approximate the DC impedance as a function of state of charge (SOC). Failure limits of the battery with respect to assembly temperature and pressure were tested, and an MESC manufacturing simulation model was constructed in Abaqus to validate the manufacturing limits. Samples assembled without enough temperature or pressure failed due to a lack of structural integrity or hermetic seal. Conversely, samples which underwent elevated temperatures and pressures resulted in high DC impedance due to nonuniform electrolyte wetting. This work resolves the primary concern of MESC by achieving comparable DC impedance to commercial pouch cells of the same chemistry and testing procedure.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spatial impacts of technological innovations on the levelized cost of energy for offshore wind power plants in the United States

Recent studies predict significant decreases in the future levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of offshore wind energy, much of which is attributed to anticipated cost reductions from technological innovation. This study evaluates the spatial variability of LCOE caused by technology-induced decreases in a range of capital, operational, and financial cost categories. A spatial cost model of fixed-bottom and floating offshore wind plants is used to model the impact across thousands of potential United States sites. A specified change in an individual turbine subsystem cost produces a range of LCOE outcomes due to the varying geospatial characteristics of the considered sites and the nonlinear, interactive dependency on these input parameters; for example, a 10.8% improvement in net capacity factor can reduce LCOE by between 6% and 20% at different sites. This work expands upon the existing offshore wind literature, which typically evaluates cost sensitivities at a single site and does not consider the spatial variance in LCOE. The results suggest that the impact of technological innovations can be considerable and should be considered on a spatial as well as temporal basis when prioritizing technology innovation research or funding decisions to advance offshore wind technologies in the United States.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stability and control of power systems with high penetrations of inverter-based resources: An accessible review of current knowledge and open questions

As power system renewable energy penetrations increase, the ways in which key renewable technologies such as wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) differ from thermal generators become more apparent. Many studies have examined the variability and uncertainty of such generators and described how generation and load can be balanced for a wide variety of annual energy penetrations, at timescales from seconds to years. Another important characteristic of these resources is asynchronicity, the result of using inverters to interface the prime energy source with the power system as opposed to synchronous generators. Unlike synchronous generators, whose frequency of alternating current (AC) injection is physically coupled to the rotation of the machine itself, inverter based asynchronous generators do not share the same physical coupling with the generated frequency. These subtle differences impact the operations of power systems developed around the characteristics of synchronous generators. In this paper we review current knowledge and open research questions concerning the interplay between asynchronous inverter-based resources (IBRs) and cycle- to second-scale power system dynamics, with a focus on how stability and control may be impacted or need to be achieved differently when there are high instantaneous penetrations of IBRs across an interconnection. This work does not seek to provide a comprehensive review of the latest developments, but is instead intended to be accessible to any reader with an engineering background and an interest in power systems and renewable energy. As such, the paper includes basic material on power electronics, control schemes for IBRs, and power system stability; and uses this background material to describe potential impacts of IBRs on power system stability, operational challenges associated with large amounts of distributed IBR generation, and modern power system simulation trends driven by IBR characteristics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Kinetics vs Thermodynamics: Engineering Photoredox Reactivity from an Upper Excited State of Fe II

Ultrafast deactivation of metal-to-ligand charge-transfer (MLCT) states into low-lying metal-centered states has long limited the utility of first-row transition-metal complexes in a broad range of applications, including photoredox catalysis. Here we bypass such limitations using a Fe II -pyridinium carbene complex to enable electron transfer reactivity directly from a higher-lying MLCT state. Time-resolved spectroscopic data revealed that the higher-energy MLCT manifold relaxes to lower-lying metal-centered states with a time constant of ca. 3 ps. The nature of the metal-centered (MC) excited state as a 3 MC (i.e., S = 1) was inferred from variable-temperature transient absorption studies. These experiments also revealed that the ground-state recovery process occurs at or very near the “Marcus barrierless regime”, thereby allowing for an estimate of its excited-state redox potential. The detailed picture of the energetics of this compound that emerged enabled fine-tuning of competing thermodynamic and kinetic pathways to effect electron transfer from the higher-energy MLCT excited state prior to relaxation to the ligand-field manifold. We believe these results open an unexplored landscape for the use of earth-abundant first-row transition-metal-based chromophores for applications in light-to-chemical energy conversion.

charge transfer↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tropical lacustrine sediment microbial community response to an extreme El Niño event

Salinity can influence microbial communities and related functional groups in lacustrine sediments, but few studies have examined temporal variability in salinity and associated changes in lacustrine microbial communities and functional groups. To better understand how microbial communities and functional groups respond to salinity, we examined geochemistry and functional gene amplicon sequence data collected from 13 lakes located in Kiritimati, Republic of Kiribati (2° N, 157° W) in July 2014 and June 2019, dates which bracket the very large El Niño event of 2015–2016 and a period of extremely high precipitation rates. Lake water salinity values in 2019 were significantly reduced and covaried with ecological distances between microbial samples. Specifically, phylum- and family-level results indicate that more halophilic microorganisms occurred in 2014 samples, whereas more mesohaline, marine, or halotolerant microorganisms were detected in 2019 samples. Functional Annotation of Prokaryotic Taxa (FAPROTAX) and functional gene results (nifH, nrfA, aprA) suggest that salinity influences the relative abundance of key functional groups (chemoheterotrophs, phototrophs, nitrogen fixers, denitrifiers, sulfate reducers), as well as the microbial diversity within functional groups. Accordingly, we conclude that microbial community and functional gene groups in the lacustrine sediments of Kiritimati show dynamic changes and adaptations to the fluctuations in salinity driven by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗